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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

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  • Jobabob said:

    I'm now expecting Trump to win, and have bet accordingly. If Trump wins, I cash in big style but it will mean sheer misery for the world.

    Yep, Trump has won this. He will be 45th president of the United States.

    Trump is winning the rural areas and not doing as badly as Clinton needs him to do in the suburbs.

  • Mortimer said:

    I very nearly went to bed!

    Me too
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited November 2016

    Hearing its really close in PA

    Come on PA!

    PA for Trump. Trump comes in, then loses.

    That would be ideal.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In 2012 80% of exit polls were within 1.5 points of the result (in terms of the winning margin).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    Actually looking at the vote totals on CNN I think it's a mistake that Broward is only 16% in. Compare to the turnout numbers here - http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/CountyReportingStatus/

    I think Trump has won.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    I still think Broward wins FL for Clinton....

    2012 result was:

    B. Obama (i) Dem 67.2% 507,430
    M. Romney GOP 32.3% 243,732

    I don't think it will give her enough. The on the day vote won't be as strong for her.
    Clinton running ahead of Obama on the Broward votes counted so far
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Speedy said:

    Essexit said:

    Am I missing something? FL looks to be Trump's, and VA may throw up a surprise, but the exit polls/results from OH, PA, NC all point to a likely Clinton win, surely? Yet people are talking as if Trump has it in the bag.

    The Exit Polls were monumental CRAAAPPPPP.

    Trump is now going to get a lead in N.C. at any moment now too.
    Ah, right you are. Ditto rottenborough and Ohio.

    Well, I hope the boss isn't expecting me to get any work done tomorrow...
  • This is a little Brexitty
  • rcs1000 said:

    Trump almost 140k ahead in FL.

    I'm now long Trump for the Presidency.

    Oh Robert ;)

    It's certainly looking a bit tight this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    Ohio just turned red.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Jobabob said:

    I'm now expecting Trump to win, and have bet accordingly. If Trump wins, I cash in big style but it will mean sheer misery for the world.

    Yep, Trump has won this. He will be 45th president of the United States.

    Trump is winning the rural areas and not doing as badly as Clinton needs him to do in the suburbs.

    Calm down there.
  • I still think Broward wins FL for Clinton....

    That's what I'm thinking.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Trump almost in the lead in NC....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    Jobabob said:

    I'm now expecting Trump to win, and have bet accordingly. If Trump wins, I cash in big style but it will mean sheer misery for the world.

    Yep, Trump has won this. He will be 45th president of the United States.

    Trump is winning the rural areas and not doing as badly as Clinton needs him to do in the suburbs.

    Can you two go and please find a secret room to cry in private....

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    MaxPB said:

    Ohio just turned red.

    And NY Times with a 62% Trump win forecast.
  • @JennyFreeman fair play, looks like you were right.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Trump has a 140k lead in Florida right now.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784

    Data editor of Economist says calm down:

    Dan Rosenheck ‏@DanRosenheck 3m3 minutes ago
    Remember that a) HRC does NOT need ANY of FL/OH/NC as long as she can hold her firewall and b) data so far do not suggest big polling error

    But that requires her to hold both PA and MI... :gulp:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    edited November 2016
    CNN projects Clinton wins New York and Trump wins Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming and N and S Dakota.

    Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin too close to call
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2016
    Mrrm, if Trump nicks Florida/Ohio/NC, then he just needs Wisconsin, Michigan or NV+NH to win.

    Clinton's numbers in NH so far would seem to close off the latter, and Michigan looks pretty solid so far. Wisconsin? Nothing in yet, but probably not with the way Michigan is voting.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Thrak said:

    Some of you are going to be very embarrassed later today. You really aren't looking at the figures and seeing what votes are to come. Do people never kearn?

    Why, do you think Clinton can still win Florida?
    Can? I certainly think she still can.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Florida exit poll was Clinton 47.7%, Trump 46.4%.

    Clinton is currently on 47.6% which is almost bang on the exit poll.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    So glad this was close..it would have been so boring if Clinton walked it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    FL, Trump almost 160k ahead now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN exit poll, yes the ones who underestimated Trump by a very very large margin have Michigan as a 47% tie, basically a Trump lead of around 0.2-0.3%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    Actually looking at the vote totals on CNN I think it's a mistake that Broward is only 16% in. Compare to the turnout numbers here - http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/CountyReportingStatus/

    I think Trump has won.

    But CNN's state vote count ought to balance with its turnout declared figures
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Trump carries the Dakotas shocker.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Trump now ahead in North Carolina with the NYT Tracker
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    What's the point of John King leading you by the nose through the data if you're going to ignore him?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    "This is a big win for Clinton in NY"... er okay.
  • corporeal said:

    Thrak said:

    Some of you are going to be very embarrassed later today. You really aren't looking at the figures and seeing what votes are to come. Do people never kearn?

    Why, do you think Clinton can still win Florida?
    Can? I certainly think she still can.
    He has a 160k lead. How will that be reversed?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Andrew said:

    Mrrm, if Trump nicks Florida/Ohio/NC, then he just needs Wisconsin, Michigan or NV+NH to win.

    Virginia ?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    So... what's Trump's plan for bringing the jobs back? Re-open all the mines?
  • Lib dem candidate walking this....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783

    Data editor of Economist says calm down:

    Dan Rosenheck ‏@DanRosenheck 3m3 minutes ago
    Remember that a) HRC does NOT need ANY of FL/OH/NC as long as she can hold her firewall and b) data so far do not suggest big polling error

    I must say that a knife-edge result in Florida hardly suggests any systematic error in the polls. 538 had it at 0.7% for Clinton finally, but it had changed colour more often than a chameleon in a discotheque over the last couple of weeks.
  • Beeb:
    Trump pulls ahead in ECVs

    Trump 123 electors
    Clinton 97
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    CNN saying Broward is over 9% of whole Florida population
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    NYT saying that Clinton is on 275 ECVs. Squeaky bum time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923

    corporeal said:

    Thrak said:

    Some of you are going to be very embarrassed later today. You really aren't looking at the figures and seeing what votes are to come. Do people never kearn?

    Why, do you think Clinton can still win Florida?
    Can? I certainly think she still can.
    He has a 160k lead. How will that be reversed?
    I don't think so. I think he gets it by 50-70k.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Trump takes the lead in Ohio.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    I have said repeatedly - ignore the % reported figures - they are highly misleading.

    Take the 2012 total, add about 10% and that gives you total 2016 vote.

    Then obviously deduct vote already counted.
  • NYT now has Trump ahead in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and NC. This would make it 279 Clinton, 259 Trump.

    He can still win if he overperforms the exit poll in PA or MI or CO or WI
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923

    corporeal said:

    Thrak said:

    Some of you are going to be very embarrassed later today. You really aren't looking at the figures and seeing what votes are to come. Do people never kearn?

    Why, do you think Clinton can still win Florida?
    Can? I certainly think she still can.
    He has a 160k lead. How will that be reversed?
    Now 153k
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Trump 143K ahead in Fl.
  • corporeal said:

    Jobabob said:

    I'm now expecting Trump to win, and have bet accordingly. If Trump wins, I cash in big style but it will mean sheer misery for the world.

    Yep, Trump has won this. He will be 45th president of the United States.

    Trump is winning the rural areas and not doing as badly as Clinton needs him to do in the suburbs.

    Calm down there.

    Perfectly calm. I have been calling it for Trump all day.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    Trump into 4.3! Glad I got in at 6s.
  • MaxPB said:

    NYT saying that Clinton is on 275 ECVs. Squeaky bum time.

    I suggested some time ago that this election may be decided by Colorado. Eeeeek.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Dow is falling like a stone on the spreads
  • Michigan too close to call. NBC
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    NYT saying that Clinton is on 275 ECVs. Squeaky bum time.

    I am going to bed at 4am then as if it is that close neither Trump nor Clinton are conceding tonight, perhaps prepare for the lawyers
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    I think Trump will win Ohio, NC and edge Florida. Penn I am not sure at all about. Clinton will edge Virginia, just - Northern Virginia will carry her to the end.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Gold price has gone up 1.3% 1.5% in the past hour. The most interesting case is "possible or probable NOM in the EC", caused by the leader getting say 266-275.

    Trump 4.2. I'm really surprised you called this for Clinton so soon, @rcs100. Had you down as level-headed :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    MaxPB said:

    NYT saying that Clinton is on 275 ECVs. Squeaky bum time.

    Oo, they have a plot versus time showing how it is becoming closer:

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    What do we think on the popular vote winner?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MaxPB said:

    Trump into 4.3! Glad I got in at 6s.

    I went from -674 Trump to +1000 at 1.13

    *Phew timed that well*
  • NYT now has Trump ahead in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and NC. This would make it 279 Clinton, 259 Trump.

    He can still win if he overperforms the exit poll in PA or MI or CO or WI

    as if on cue - MI too close to call.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump leads in Virginia by 108K with 66% in, including 50% of Fairfax and Loundoun.

    Hillary can get an extra 70-80K from those 2 counties.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Currently all going Trump's way.....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    Trump takes the lead in Ohio.

    Not you too Nick



  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    Trump now ahead in NC.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    BBC studio has that mournful, post-Brexit air about it....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times called Texas for Trump. :p
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Looks like HIlary is 10% up in the south east counties compared to Obama
    So looking @ the final result in 2012 I think she's got 100k votes to come in from broward.

    So Trump wins. Maybe.. :)
    Obama got 507,430 , + 10% = 560k - 436,759 already in according to NYT.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    I wonder who is going to be first to call FL?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Going pretty much as my high turnout prediction so far.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    BBC studio has that mournful, post-Brexit air about it....

    I was just thinking that. All these metropolitan liberal types realising that a significant percentage of the population do not share their views.
  • Trump is going to win this handily.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump lead down a bit to 138k, now at 92%.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Oh my god!!!!!!!!someone tell me Clinton still wins.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    IanB2 said:

    Dow is falling like a stone on the spreads

    Will a Trump victory wipe out a huge chunk of his personal wealth?
  • We might need a new thread!!!
  • Trump now on 129 ECVs
    Clinton still on 97
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times thinks he'll have it by 11 points in the end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
  • Tony said:

    Looks like HIlary is 10% up in the south east counties compared to Obama
    So looking @ the final result in 2012 I think she's got 100k votes to come in from broward.

    So Trump wins. Maybe.. :)
    Obama got 507,430 , + 10% = 560k - 436,759 already in according to NYT.

    I think Trump is doing better than Romney in Broward
  • MP_SE said:

    BBC studio has that mournful, post-Brexit air about it....

    I was just thinking that. All these metropolitan liberal types realising that a significant percentage of the population do not share their views.
    Yeah, how dare they be upset that a racist misogynist might control one of the most powerful countries in the world. Stuff them for not having any racist or misogynistic views....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I really think Trump might edge this. God.
  • alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dow is falling like a stone on the spreads

    Will a Trump victory wipe out a huge chunk of his personal wealth?
    What wealth? Don't you mean debt? ;-)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    HYUFD said:

    CNN projects Clinton wins New York and Trump wins Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming and N and S Dakota.

    Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin too close to call

    Louisiana too close to call? ::-O
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    RobD said:

    Trump lead down a bit to 138k, now at 92%.

    He pulled back a bit in Palm Beach. I don't think the remaining Broward vote will be as bad for him as the early votes so he should just edge it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Surely, those CNN numbers for Broward County are more than 16%???
  • nunu said:

    Oh my god!!!!!!!!someone tell me Clinton still wins.

    Virginia is the potential crack in the wall which if it goes indicates full time panic zone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Time for a new more accurate thread!
  • Trump down at 3.7 on BF.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    New Hampshire 13% in
    Clinton 50%
    Trump 45%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-hampshire
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:
    Trump is looking like he's going to get small leads in all the battleground states.

    IMO, Clinton winning the popular vote by 2% but losing the Electoral College is looking very plausible right now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN projects Clinton wins New York and Trump wins Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming and N and S Dakota.

    Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin too close to call

    Louisiana too close to call? ::-O
    Louisiana to early to call, he leads 63-33 there.
  • Danny565 said:

    I really think Trump might edge this. God.

    He could do better than edge it.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    These are outstanding CNN graphics
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    trump49.2% 4,412,507
    clinton47.7% 4,274,443

    I min ago.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Michigan 11% in
    Clinton 47.8%
    Trump 47.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/michigan
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clinton's 272 firewall is still holding as far as I can see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    132k at 93%
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    MP_SE said:

    BBC studio has that mournful, post-Brexit air about it....

    I was just thinking that. All these metropolitan liberal types realising that a significant percentage of the population do not share their views.
    The panel isn't balanced. The token Republican is a declared 'anti-Trump Republican' who would prefer Clinton to win.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,923
    Florida: CNBC says 400k still to come from Broward, and that she should win that by 100k.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump winning the CD-2 of Maine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    The Dow has jumped back 100 points - why I can't see
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Pennsylvania 7% in
    Clinton 64%
    Trump 32%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania
  • rcs1000 said:

    Florida: CNBC says 400k still to come from Broward, and that she should win that by 100k.

    Praying this is true!
This discussion has been closed.