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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    The maps are certainly getting changed. Swing counties out the window.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,510
    Trump ahead FL by 77000
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,447
    Trump coming in slightly on BF
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    You know what Trump may actually have a chance in Virginia.

    In Prince William and Fauquler counties (DC suburbs), he is actually doing quite well, better than Romney.

    He is doing worse in Fairfax, but better in the rest of the state.

    NY Times predicting it is only a 2-3 point margin. Seems small for VA.
    If its' only 2-3 points and not 8 like the CNN exit poll says, then I believe that Trump may do a Falcon worthy of Farage on Referendum night.
    Trump seems to be outperforming the exit polls in most states at the moment, 'shy Trumpers'?
    And he is outperforming them by a lot.

    I think a critical mistake was counting 18-29 year old's as a greater share than over 65's in the exit polls.
    Yes, the US networks better hope this is not their 1992 moment! Clinton is still the favourite but it looks a lot tighter than it did an hour ago
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    CNN explaining that Hillary should make up the margin and more in areas to come.

    Should be enough to overcome Marion. Just.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    You know what Trump may actually have a chance in Virginia.

    In Prince William and Fauquler counties (DC suburbs), he is actually doing quite well, better than Romney.

    He is doing worse in Fairfax, but better in the rest of the state.

    NY Times predicting it is only a 2-3 point margin. Seems small for VA.
    If its' only 2-3 points and not 8 like the CNN exit poll says, then I believe that Trump may do a Falcon worthy of Farage on Referendum night.
    Trump seems to be outperforming the exit polls in most states at the moment, 'shy Trumpers'?
    And he is outperforming them by a lot.

    I think a critical mistake was counting 18-29 year old's as a greater share than over 65's in the exit polls.
    How do exit polls deal with early voting?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes

    Yes - uber close.

    I may have been too confident...
    Pennsylvania might also be up to a shocker, only 3 counties in but Trump is doing much much better than Romney in rural Pennsylvania, in one of them he is up 23% higher than Romney.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SirBernard said:

    Republican Todd Young has won Indiana in a shock. Hard for Democrats to win Senate now.

    Dems will hold Nevada.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    Tony said:

    NytiMES @ 69% Trump in Florida.
    No idea if they know what they're doing though :)

    If the exit poll is that far out in Florida it's going to be a very late night....

    Now up to 71%
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    My presidential screen is ALL green for the first time in like a year :p
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    I think that he may take Florida...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes

    Yes - uber close.

    I may have been too confident...
    Pennsylvania might also be up to a shocker, only 3 counties in but Trump is doing much much better than Romney in rural Pennsylvania, in one of them he is up 23% higher than Romney.
    Trump is rocking rural areas.
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Michigan exit poll from @MIRSnews has Trump and Clinton neck and neck at 48% each.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes

    Yes - uber close.

    I may have been too confident...
    Pennsylvania might also be up to a shocker, only 3 counties in but Trump is doing much much better than Romney in rural Pennsylvania, in one of them he is up 23% higher than Romney.
    Florida, plus Pennsylvania plus Ohio, say hello President Trump
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    RobD said:

    Tony said:

    NytiMES @ 69% Trump in Florida.
    No idea if they know what they're doing though :)

    If the exit poll is that far out in Florida it's going to be a very late night....

    Now up to 71%
    And 85k ahead
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Trump is doing very well in rural Penn...
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    Yep I'm afraid so.

    If big if Trump takes Floriday and Ohio at the moment I only have Clinton on 267. So many knife edge states could settle the outcome.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    Tony said:

    Michigan exit poll from @MIRSnews has Trump and Clinton neck and neck at 48% each.

    :o
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Trump is going to win this.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Eesh, looking a bit less comfortable for Clinton right now....
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    This is ridiculous.
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    SirBernardSirBernard Posts: 73
    JennyFreeman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    Yep I'm afraid so.

    If big if Trump takes Floriday and Ohio at the moment I only have Clinton on 267. So many knife edge states could settle the outcome.
    North Carolina is looking very good for Clinton on the other hand.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Trump is looking like very good vale on BF...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    Virginia 52% in
    Trump 50%
    Clinton 45%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    SouthamObserver said:

    Trump is going to win this.

    FL maybe, but not the race.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    RobD said:

    Tony said:

    NytiMES @ 69% Trump in Florida.
    No idea if they know what they're doing though :)

    If the exit poll is that far out in Florida it's going to be a very late night....

    Now up to 71%
    The issue seems to be that no-one knows what % of votes have been counted in Broward
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Trump pulling away in FL, still a net 120-130k for Clinton to come in Broward and Palm beach, but more to come for Trump elswhere. Going to be very, very close.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,510
    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    The markets having a little wobble as well
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Tony said:

    NytiMES @ 69% Trump in Florida.
    No idea if they know what they're doing though :)

    If the exit poll is that far out in Florida it's going to be a very late night....

    Now up to 71%
    Is that % chance of winning or % share of the vote?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    JennyFreeman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    Yep I'm afraid so.

    If big if Trump takes Floriday and Ohio at the moment I only have Clinton on 267. So many knife edge states could settle the outcome.
    Don't forget the whispers about Michigan...
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    Hearing Michigan may be tight.

    Texas 45% counted Dems ahead. I'd just assumed this was locked in Republican. Is it the Dem. counties early or is this in play?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    Trump lead close to 100k in FL!
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    SirBernard said:

    Republican Todd Young has won Indiana in a shock. Hard for Democrats to win Senate now.

    Not really, Indiana was about the 6-7th target for the Democrats and they need 4 if Hillary wins to get control. They have gained IL and will get WI almost certainly as well. NH,Missouri and Penn all more likely gains with NC about the same chance as Indiana.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    edited November 2016
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    RobD said:

    Tony said:

    NytiMES @ 69% Trump in Florida.
    No idea if they know what they're doing though :)

    If the exit poll is that far out in Florida it's going to be a very late night....

    Now up to 71%
    The issue seems to be that no-one knows what % of votes have been counted in Broward
    Yes, but if they are using the <1% figure on their page, surely their model would be expecting a bucket load more Clinton votes to come.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    SirBernard said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    Yep I'm afraid so.

    If big if Trump takes Floriday and Ohio at the moment I only have Clinton on 267. So many knife edge states could settle the outcome.
    North Carolina is looking very good for Clinton on the other hand.
    But thats because many of the big cities started to report first. It is beginning to tighten.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited November 2016
    Imagine a smarter campaign from Trump...my new shovel would definitely be seeing a lot of action!

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    Chameleon said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    Yep I'm afraid so.

    If big if Trump takes Floriday and Ohio at the moment I only have Clinton on 267. So many knife edge states could settle the outcome.
    Don't forget the whispers about Michigan...
    Yes, MI looking like a shock is possible there.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    Trump up 96k
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    Trump pulling ahead in Florida.

    I'm out of dodge there.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    An hour ago I should have known it was too good to be true.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154
    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes

    Yes - uber close.

    I may have been too confident...
    Robert. Even if Clinton ultimately wins Florida - you were too confident. There's no "may have been" here.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    Tony said:

    Michigan exit poll from @MIRSnews has Trump and Clinton neck and neck at 48% each.

    :o
    Pile on Trump now.

    He is leading in Florida, he is leading in Virginia, the exit polls were wrong in Trumpian Bigly ways.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    The_Apocalypse said:

    An hour ago I should have known it was too good to be true.

    I feel sorry for those that went to bed, LOL.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Broward 13% in, Miami-Dade 91% in, Palm Beach 53% in.

    Marion 32% in, trump +100,000.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,510
    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Trump is going to win this.

    FL maybe, but not the race.
    If the race then there is big money to be made, as in June. I don't see it yet though.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    Yep I'm afraid so.

    If big if Trump takes Floriday and Ohio at the moment I only have Clinton on 267. So many knife edge states could settle the outcome.
    Don't forget the whispers about Michigan...
    Yes, MI looking like a shock is possible there.
    Would be a shock to Frank Luntz's reputation too.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    williamglenn said:

    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.

    Yep, 99,681
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.

    Yep, 99,681
    Now 102k
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    As I say, RCS has called this far too early. It's going to be a very long night.

    Yep I'm afraid so.

    If big if Trump takes Floriday and Ohio at the moment I only have Clinton on 267. So many knife edge states could settle the outcome.
    Don't forget the whispers about Michigan...
    Yes, MI looking like a shock is possible there.
    If Trump could win PA I'd be a happy bunny on SPIN.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited November 2016
    Broward:

    2012 - 750k total
    2016 - 620k in so far

    (Ignoring minor candidates)

    Surely 180k to come with population growth.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    SouthamObserver said:

    Trump is going to win this.

    Based on what? I'll give you 5/1. Great thing about CNN is that he's explaining in detail why the running state vote totals are less than half the story.

    I don't know why e.g. Miami area is always so slow to report, but it always is.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    Up to 79% win probability for Trump on NY Times.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    stjohn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes

    Yes - uber close.

    I may have been too confident...
    Robert. Even if Clinton ultimately wins Florida - you were too confident. There's no "may have been" here.
    Sure :)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    williamglenn said:

    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.

    It's above 100k now, I think Trump has won Florida, and maybe just maybe the election.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    Alabama projected for Donald Trump
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    rcs1000 said:

    Trump lead close to 100k in FL!

    Over 100k now!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Surely he can't win. :/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    104k now.
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Nytimes up to 80% sure of Trump in Florida.
    WIth the Michigan exit , I've put some money on him :)
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited November 2016
    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Trump is going to win this.

    FL maybe, but not the race.

    No, he is going to win the whole thing. Clinton is under-performing in too many key areas. Florida is going to be repeated across the EST and CST zones.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    edited November 2016
    82% win probability for Trump.... nope, 83%!

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    US Networks now calling the House of Representatives for the GOP
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    Just bought Trump on SpreadEx where the odds haven't yet changed.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    All the swing states looking like nailbiters right now...
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Dadge said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Trump is going to win this.

    Based on what? I'll give you 5/1. Great thing about CNN is that he's explaining in detail why the running state vote totals are less than half the story.

    I don't know why e.g. Miami area is always so slow to report, but it always is.
    Miami-Dade is at 91%
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Meanwhile as Trump has probably won in Florida and is leading in Virginia and the exit polls have him at a tie in Michigan, he is getting closer in N.C.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Virginia is taking a long time.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    MikeL said:

    Broward:

    2012 - 750k total
    2016 - 620k in so far

    (Ignoring minor candidates)

    Surely 180k to come with population growth.

    Sure, but even if it goes to Clinton by 2 to 1, that's less than half of Trumps current lead.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Speedy said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.

    It's above 100k now, I think Trump has won Florida, and maybe just maybe the election.

    I agree. Time to pile onto Trump.

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Major Brexit Night flashbacks....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    BBC saying working class turnout in Michigan much higher than expected, confirming Luntz's earlier tweet
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    Does Amazon sell corrugated iron sheets?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    rcs1000 said:

    Just bought Trump on SpreadEx where the odds haven't yet changed.

    Have you got back into BF yet?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    104k Trump lead in FL, 91% in.

    Mimai Dade all in
    Broward + Palm Beach only likely to bring 60-70k in for Clinton.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    If we're going by the NY Times tracker, Trump wins Florida but struggles in other key states like North Carolina and Iowa.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    Major Brexit Night flashbacks....

    Tbh with Brexit we knew very on what was happening.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    105k...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just bought Trump on SpreadEx where the odds haven't yet changed.

    Have you got back into BF yet?
    "Your account has been locked."
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    Tony said:

    Nytimes up to 80% sure of Trump in Florida.
    WIth the Michigan exit , I've put some money on him :)

    The NYT now have Trump ahead in Ohio. I have put £5 on at 5/1. If ecan pull off Florida his odds will come in sharply
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just bought Trump on SpreadEx where the odds haven't yet changed.

    Have you got back into BF yet?
    "Your account has been locked."
    Do you want any bets ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,002
    Artist said:

    If we're going by the NY Times tracker, Trump wins Florida but struggles in other key states like North Carolina and Iowa.

    I love their dials! So awesome.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154
    SouthamObserver said:

    Speedy said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.

    It's above 100k now, I think Trump has won Florida, and maybe just maybe the election.

    I agree. Time to pile onto Trump.

    Broward county could still give Clinton enough votes.
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    Anyone managed to extrapolate out the Exit poll miss in Florida to the rest of the country?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,510
    Dow down 100 points on not that long ago
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just bought Trump on SpreadEx where the odds haven't yet changed.

    Have you got back into BF yet?
    "Your account has been locked."
    I stupidly self excluded myself so cannot access mine.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,081
    108k Trump lead FL
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    Farage on the BBC...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    Nige on the BBC!
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    williamglenn said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Speedy said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.

    It's above 100k now, I think Trump has won Florida, and maybe just maybe the election.

    I agree. Time to pile onto Trump.

    Broward county could still give Clinton enough votes.
    NYtimes now 84% certain he's winning , surely they can't be that wrong :)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004
    New York is in play O_O ?!!!!!!!!!
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736
    So this is looking screwy... possibility that Trump takes FL, PA, MI, but loses NC and AZ?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Tony said:

    Nytimes up to 80% sure of Trump in Florida.
    WIth the Michigan exit , I've put some money on him :)

    The NYT now have Trump ahead in Ohio. I have put £5 on at 5/1. If ecan pull off Florida his odds will come in sharply
    I think Trump might win Virginia now.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes

    Yes - uber close.

    I may have been too confident...
    Pennsylvania might also be up to a shocker, only 3 counties in but Trump is doing much much better than Romney in rural Pennsylvania, in one of them he is up 23% higher than Romney.
    The exit poll won't be out by 4 points.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Is the issue here that the position in every state worsens for Clinton over time as on the day voters get counted? So that even in heavily democrat counties, votes to come may be very close or even favouring Trump?
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Gold up USD8 an ounce since 1am. Although it fell sharply by USD12 (1%) between 12.45am and 1am.

    image
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    williamglenn said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Speedy said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump's lead in Florida approaching 100k.

    It's above 100k now, I think Trump has won Florida, and maybe just maybe the election.

    I agree. Time to pile onto Trump.

    Broward county could still give Clinton enough votes.
    I'm not sure it will now.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Looks like Trump has won Florida.

    I wonder what data Luntz and co were seeing which seemed to show this would be a short night?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SouthamObserver said:

    Trump is going to win this.

    Florida or the election?
This discussion has been closed.