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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Commercial break? :o
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,925
    Still c 300,000 votes from Broward to come in FL, suggests D still take it,

    I take back my earlier retraction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Jobabob said:

    Dadge said:

    John King's auctioneer shtick working great with this FL dingdong on CNN. But he knows Clinton's going to win.

    Is it John King, the analyst? He's excellent.
    Yes, I'm sticking with CNN - that was class.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump ahead by 28 votes!
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    88% in
    Donald Trump
    49%
    3,983,244
    Hillary Clinton
    49%
    3,983,216

    That's 28 votes!!! :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Florida 88% in
    Trump 48.5%
    Clinton 48.5%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida
  • MikeL said:

    200,000 to come in broward

    What are they doing there. Get counting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.
  • 538 saying Rubio has won his seat in Florida.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Approx 450,000 to come in palm beach + broward at approx. 35% margin

    Worth 160,000 net to Clinton STILL TO COME
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.

    No.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Tony said:

    88% in
    Donald Trump
    49%
    3,983,244
    Hillary Clinton
    49%
    3,983,216

    That's 28 votes!!! :)

    Hanging chads time.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited November 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Tony said:

    CNN coverage is just awesome :)

    How did I get it online?
    Eh? Its on the CNN homepage...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,925
    edited November 2016
    MikeL said:

    Dade almost finished - negligible to come

    Broward 550,000 in so far, against turnout of 757,000 in 2012.

    Hillary wins FL.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    NYtimes gives Trump 63% chance of winning Florida!! http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.

    Doubt it.

    Urban centres count late, and count big Dem.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Dade almost finished - negligible to come

    Broward 550,000 in so far, against turnout of 757,000 in 2012.

    Hillary wins FL.
    Looks like 600k are in, but your point stands.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Florida - Look what's left to come .... Big Dem areas still to fill in ....

    Looking Clinton +2
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JackW said:

    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.

    No.
    But I'm still close in calling the CNN exit poll for Virginia an american Bullsh*t again, Trump may lose Virginia but not with the margins of the exit poll it seems.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    weejonnie said:

    NYtimes gives Trump 63% chance of winning Florida!! http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida

    How, if Clinton has all those votes banked?
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Fairly sure the NYtimes site has the real % reporting figures per county.
    Lots still to come in from Rural states where Trump is 70%+

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
  • For clarity, Florida is immaterial if Clinton gets Ohio, PA, and NC.

    Even if she loses Ohio and NH in fact.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MikeL said:

    Approx 450,000 to come in palm beach + broward at approx. 35% margin

    Worth 160,000 net to Clinton STILL TO COME

    Hence why Hillary is as short as 1.29 to win the state.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Florida 88% in
    Trump 48.6%
    Clinton 48.4%

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MikeL said:

    Approx 450,000 to come in palm beach + broward at approx. 35% margin

    Worth 160,000 net to Clinton STILL TO COME

    So why are CNN saying its close?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Florida:

    8.4m votes in 2012
    8.2m in so far in 2016

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    Dade almost finished - negligible to come

    CNN says only 80% counted there...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,911
    67,536 to be counted in Okaloosa. Will favour Trump.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    edited November 2016
    Trump now up 20k at 89%
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    John King "he's running up the score, but there's nothing more".

    The man is a straight up genius.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Oh God 20% still to come in Dade. Phew......
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    If total vote is 9m then half to come are palm beach + broward in which case surely Clinton must have it.

    If more like 9.5m then maybe not.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783

    Hillary leading in Texas at the moment.

    Is that in a representative sample? I I am still recovering from the shock of discovering that more than a third of Texans are of Mexican descent.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    This guy on CNN knows his stuff. Wolf seems to be getting excited lol
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    weejonnie said:

    NYtimes gives Trump 63% chance of winning Florida!! http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida

    How, if Clinton has all those votes banked?
    The day vote was heavily Republican, Hillary got the early lead with the early vote.

    It's possible Trump wins Florida which means the CNN exit poll was again Bullsh*t for a 3rd swing state tonight.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Dade almost finished - negligible to come

    Broward 550,000 in so far, against turnout of 757,000 in 2012.

    Hillary wins FL.
    600k reporting, Trump still in the lead.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    jonny83 said:

    This guy on CNN knows his stuff. Wolf seems to be getting excited lol

    They make a great team!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    MikeL said:

    Approx 450,000 to come in palm beach + broward at approx. 35% margin

    Worth 160,000 net to Clinton STILL TO COME

    Most of Miami Dade now in, most of panhandle yet to report
  • For clarity, Florida is immaterial if Clinton gets Ohio, PA, and NC.

    Even if she loses Ohio and NH in fact.

    That's not true
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.

    No.
    But I'm still close in calling the CNN exit poll for Virginia an american Bullsh*t again, Trump may lose Virginia but not with the margins of the exit poll it seems.
    Look where the vote still has to come. As in 08/12 GOP will be swamped by the DC suburbs.
  • Anyone got a feel for Hillary's national vote lead? Comfortably in 0-5% band? :-)
  • Chris said:

    Hillary leading in Texas at the moment.

    Is that in a representative sample? I I am still recovering from the shock of discovering that more than a third of Texans are of Mexican descent.
    So are they.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    AndyJS said:

    Tony said:

    CNN coverage is just awesome :)

    How did I get it online?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIDc1PYgmhU

    They know that now is not the time for interviews.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    Chris said:

    Hillary leading in Texas at the moment.

    Is that in a representative sample? I I am still recovering from the shock of discovering that more than a third of Texans are of Mexican descent.
    No...so far it is pretty much all from the city of Sacramento.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,911
    A minor prediction failure from Luntz. Now 68-66.

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796158509893218305
  • For clarity, Florida is immaterial if Clinton gets Ohio, PA, and NC.

    Even if she loses Ohio and NH in fact.

    That's not true
    I'm afraid it is. Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina will all go for her.
  • JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.

    No.
    But I'm still close in calling the CNN exit poll for Virginia an american Bullsh*t again, Trump may lose Virginia but not with the margins of the exit poll it seems.
    Look where the vote still has to come. As in 08/12 GOP will be swamped by the DC suburbs.
    Even calling them suburbs is misleading. Places like Arlington are outright inner city urban.
  • RUBIOOO!!!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    God this is exciting
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tony said:

    CNN coverage is just awesome :)

    How did I get it online?
    Eh? Its on the CNN homepage...
    Can't get it to work. Darn.

    Edit: working now. Was on the wrong page.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    Dade almost finished - negligible to come

    CNN says only 80% counted there...
    Will be wrong as all early votes dumped and treated as 0%.

    It just means 20% of precincts have some votes left.

    Best check is go back to 2012 total vote and add 10% which is what I did in posts below.

    450,000 to come in Palm Beach + Broward.

    Dade just about done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Trump outperforming exit polls in Florida it seems with almost 90% in
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,925
    This has the 2012 results by county: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012

    Which is why I'm confident Clinton wins FL.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Anyone know what the Exit poll was for Florida?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    You know what Trump may actually have a chance in Virginia.

    In Prince William and Fauquler counties (DC suburbs), he is actually doing quite well, better than Romney.

    He is doing worse in Fairfax, but better in the rest of the state.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.

    No.
    But I'm still close in calling the CNN exit poll for Virginia an american Bullsh*t again, Trump may lose Virginia but not with the margins of the exit poll it seems.
    Look where the vote still has to come. As in 08/12 GOP will be swamped by the DC suburbs.
    But is there not reason to think that the votes to come in these areas may not be as Democrat as the votes already counted in those areas?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,925
    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    The learning point for the UK is that each polling station should count its own votes and phone the results into the constituency count, declaring as they go.

    Just for us spectators, of course.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    You know what Trump may actually have a chance in Virginia.

    In Prince William and Fauquler counties (DC suburbs), he is actually doing quite well, better than Romney.

    He is doing worse in Fairfax, but better in the rest of the state.

    NY Times predicting it is only a 2-3 point margin. Seems small for VA.
  • Beeb:

    Clinton 68 electors
    Trump 66
  • Hmm... Trump may well take Florida.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    His lead up to 63k. Maybe the peak?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Rubio definitely dragging votes for Trump in Florida...I doubt enough....but let's see
  • Might go to bed. Not sure I can be arsed.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Exciting isn't it
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    alex. said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Is Trump in with a chance in Virginia? 8% ahead with 38% counted.

    No.
    But I'm still close in calling the CNN exit poll for Virginia an american Bullsh*t again, Trump may lose Virginia but not with the margins of the exit poll it seems.
    Look where the vote still has to come. As in 08/12 GOP will be swamped by the DC suburbs.
    But is there not reason to think that the votes to come in these areas may not be as Democrat as the votes already counted in those areas?
    No.
  • I think RCS called this too soon.
  • Arkansas too early to call!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    I've cashed out on Florida for around a £15 loss, greened up the main book level (At a profit to the start of the night !)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Trump called SC and AL
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    His lead up to 63k. Maybe the peak?
    Up to 78k, with 91% in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    ARkansas too early to call
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    Not sure I have the same faith in that Robert!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    Arkansas too early to call!

    LOL. What.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    You know what Trump may actually have a chance in Virginia.

    In Prince William and Fauquler counties (DC suburbs), he is actually doing quite well, better than Romney.

    He is doing worse in Fairfax, but better in the rest of the state.

    NY Times predicting it is only a 2-3 point margin. Seems small for VA.
    If its' only 2-3 points and not 8 like the CNN exit poll says, then I believe that Trump may do a Falcon worthy of Farage on Referendum night.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Washington/Holmes in the panhandle still @ 0 as far as I can see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Yet another Key Race Alert!!
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    IanB2 said:

    The learning point for the UK is that each polling station should count its own votes and phone the results into the constituency count, declaring as they go.

    Just for us spectators, of course.

    Terrible idea. Speaking as a Cllr with 9 polling stations in my ward :)
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump outperforming exit polls in Florida it seems with almost 90% in

    The three Democratic counties in the South East account for a third of the population, and are only about half in. So most of that 10% remaining must be there...
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump outperforming exit polls in Florida it seems with almost 90% in

    Shy Trump.

    Well, would you admit it?

    Let's just see. HRC may win tonight but it's not over just now, and it certainly wasn't over 2 hours ago. There's a long way to go with some very mixed demographics ahead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,925
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    His lead up to 63k. Maybe the peak?
    There are two tiny rural states (Washington + Holmes).

    Then there is still some to come from the bit Metro areas.

    V close, but I think this is Clinton by 50-100,000.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,911
    Tony said:

    Washington/Holmes in the panhandle still @ 0 as far as I can see.

    Only about 30k votes in total there.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Marion county (FL) only 32% in. Trump currently leading 73k v 45k. Could be another bank of trump votes there.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    Hillary now doing worse than Obama in West Palm Beach, Tampa continuing it's drift towards Trump.
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump outperforming exit polls in Florida it seems with almost 90% in

    Shy Trump.

    Well, would you admit it?

    Let's just see. HRC may win tonight but it's not over just now, and it certainly wasn't over 2 hours ago. There's a long way to go with some very mixed demographics ahead.
    Sorry, Trump has lost. Question is by what ECV margin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    You know what Trump may actually have a chance in Virginia.

    In Prince William and Fauquler counties (DC suburbs), he is actually doing quite well, better than Romney.

    He is doing worse in Fairfax, but better in the rest of the state.

    NY Times predicting it is only a 2-3 point margin. Seems small for VA.
    If its' only 2-3 points and not 8 like the CNN exit poll says, then I believe that Trump may do a Falcon worthy of Farage on Referendum night.
    Trump seems to be outperforming the exit polls in most states at the moment, 'shy Trumpers'?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,925
    Chameleon said:

    Marion county (FL) only 32% in. Trump currently leading 73k v 45k. Could be another bank of trump votes there.

    Oh, I missed that.
  • Looks like Ohio and Florida could flip places.

    Trump needs both.
  • Lib dems candidate doing well on the electoral map ;-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    His lead up to 63k. Maybe the peak?
    Up to 78k, with 91% in.
    Down to 71k..
  • rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    His lead up to 63k. Maybe the peak?
    There are two tiny rural states (Washington + Holmes).

    Then there is still some to come from the bit Metro areas.

    V close, but I think this is Clinton by 50-100,000.
    That's close? in FL, close is like 298 votes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Okaloosa now in. That's the last big Trump county.

    His lead up to 63k. Maybe the peak?
    Up to 78k, with 91% in.
    Down to 71k..
    Up to 78k (I should stop)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Young beats Bayh in Indiana Senate race
  • Republican Todd Young has won Indiana in a shock. Hard for Democrats to win Senate now.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hmm, the CNN analyst still seems confident about Clinton winning FL.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,925
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    CNN saying trump could have an edge in the undeclared FL votes

    Yes - uber close.

    I may have been too confident...
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    NytiMES @ 69% Trump in Florida.
    No idea if they know what they're doing though :)

    If the exit poll is that far out in Florida it's going to be a very late night....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    NY Times got more bullish on Trump, up to 69% from 64% prediction.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    You know what Trump may actually have a chance in Virginia.

    In Prince William and Fauquler counties (DC suburbs), he is actually doing quite well, better than Romney.

    He is doing worse in Fairfax, but better in the rest of the state.

    NY Times predicting it is only a 2-3 point margin. Seems small for VA.
    If its' only 2-3 points and not 8 like the CNN exit poll says, then I believe that Trump may do a Falcon worthy of Farage on Referendum night.
    Trump seems to be outperforming the exit polls in most states at the moment, 'shy Trumpers'?
    And he is outperforming them by a lot.

    I think a critical mistake was counting 18-29 year old's as a greater share than over 65's in the exit polls.
This discussion has been closed.