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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win fo

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Richmond Park battle with Zac is an absolutely must win for the LDs

To be frank I had been getting concerned about what we’d be doing on the site after the November 8th US election. PB is at its best when there are real elections taking place and there are real things to bet on. So I was absolutely delighted to get the news that we are to have a by-election in Richmond Park where Zac Goldsmith has quit because of the Heathrow decision.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    edited October 2016
    The outline of Richmond Park looks like Donald Trump's face on Easter Island, or is it just me?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/790959369181683712
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    First and Second? You cheeky bugger, TSE!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The outline of Richmond Park looks like Donald Trump's face on Easter Island, or is it just me?

    LOL
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all.

    PB is long overdue a best guess comp – any chance of that OGH, once the date is set?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Repeated from previous thread:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/790957011500470272

    Apologies, but this is highly relevant if true. Goldsmith's chances of victory must, presumably, be greatly increased in a straight fight with the yellows.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The outline of Richmond Park looks like Donald Trump's face on Easter Island, or is it just me?

    LOL
    I'm also seeing a duck on top of Trump's head too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    Gone are the days when AV was the go-to topic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The outline of Richmond Park looks like Donald Trump's face on Easter Island, or is it just me?

    LOL
    I'm also seeing a duck on top of Trump's head too.
    Are you sure it isn't just a gust of wind?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    Mike, I suspect post November 8th we'll be talking non stop Brexit/Article 50, and a 2017 general election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited October 2016
    To say it again, the proposed Heathrow expansion is *NORTH* of the existing airport. The day the new runway opens there will be *FEWER* planes landing over Richmond Park.

    Zac's NIMBY consituents should be in favour of the new runway.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    So Zac stands as the Tory and gets re-elected, continues to oppose Heathrow expansion and the government carries on with the announced policy. What is the point of this exactly?

    That question has surely got to be the Lib Dems best chance. Self-indulgent piffle.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    Gone are the days when AV was the go-to topic.
    Someone should tell UKIP about AV
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    Sandpit said:

    To say it again, the proposed Heathrow expansion is *NORTH* of the existing airport. The day the new runway opens there will be *FEWER* planes landing over Richmond Park.

    Zac's NIMBY consituents should be in favour of the new runway.

    You're not seriously trying to bring logic to bear on this are you?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    FPT Mr. H, we could use an aerodynamicist on the site...

    I'd guess thinner air diminishes the differences in aero performance based on last year (Bottas beating Red Bulls), but couldn't swear to it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?

    Just as an MP, shirley?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,160
    Actually I think this is a much tougher prospect for the Lib Dems than it first appears. The boundary changes since 2010 are pretty consequential and a fair part of the new seat was solidly Conservative. More to the point the seat was losing its Liberal support even from the 2005 election. From a betting perspective, this is not a done deal in any way, so I think OGH scents a chance of a misprice on the Tories...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?

    I'm trying to work out if Theresa May has overuled Grant Shapps.

    The only way their two statements reconcile is if Zac stands as the Tory, or else one of them is wrong. Probably Shapps.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    Gone are the days when AV was the go-to topic.
    Someone should tell UKIP about AV
    Some ancient referendum:

    No 68%
    Yes 32%

    :innocent:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
    What's the point of the LDs fighting Zac if they both have the same opinion on Heathrow? There would only be a purpose in them contesting the seat if the Tories were fighting it as well, which it sounds like they aren't.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    Gone are the days when AV was the go-to topic.
    Someone should tell UKIP about AV
    Some ancient referendum:

    No 68%
    Yes 32%

    :innocent:
    Yeah, but what if it was run under AV?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?

    Not clear.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AndyJS said:

    What's the point of the LDs fighting Zac if they both have the same opinion on Heathrow? There would only be a purpose in them contesting the seat if the Tories were fighting it as well, which it sounds like they aren't.

    Because they are going to make it about the EU and nothing else.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Cicero, good to see you on :)

    I take it Labour are nowhere in this seat?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    That's it with all elections. That post election blues, though I'll be glad to get 2016 POTUS over and done with.

    That's why it is important to have other hobbies. Tonight there's a mouth watering footie match- football the sport invented to get men through the winter. Then there's a delicious 5 test series vis India. The ATP O2 Tour finals. Then Christmas, a welcome deviation. Then we move swiftly onto the Ozzie Open and the knock out stages of the Champions League. The denouement of the premiership....and gosh we've got wimbledon already.

    And then we're going to be back in full blown election cycles...France, Germany. The obligatory annual Labour leadership shambles, the knifing of T. May and yes, soon enough we'll be back into the footie season again. How sublime is that.

    It's a major reason I'm going to regret leaving this wonderful planet when my times up. All those elections, footie tournaments, test matches, films to watch, books to read that I'll miss out on. Damn it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?

    I'm trying to work out if Theresa May has overuled Grant Shapps.

    The only way their two statements reconcile is if Zac stands as the Tory, or else one of them is wrong. Probably Shapps.
    Grant Shapps was speaking as the FORMER Tory Chairman who had long planned for a Richmond Park by election.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    What's the point of the LDs fighting Zac if they both have the same opinion on Heathrow? There would only be a purpose in them contesting the seat if the Tories were fighting it as well, which it sounds like they aren't.

    The point for the Lib Dems is to fight Zac on other subjects. Brexit is the obvious one in a constituency that's very much a Remain constituency.

    The voters are entitled to select their MP by reference to whatever subject they think fit, not just the one that the resigning MP chooses to campaign on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's the point of the LDs fighting Zac if they both have the same opinion on Heathrow? There would only be a purpose in them contesting the seat if the Tories were fighting it as well, which it sounds like they aren't.

    Because they are going to make it about the EU and nothing else.
    Zac is pro single market iirc, it won't be easy to attack him on that front.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    ZG live press conference on LBC
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    tyson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    That's it with all elections. That post election blues, though I'll be glad to get 2016 POTUS over and done with.

    That's why it is important to have other hobbies. Tonight there's a mouth watering footie match- football the sport invented to get men through the winter. Then there's a delicious 5 test series vis India. The ATP O2 Tour finals. Then Christmas, a welcome deviation. Then we move swiftly onto the Ozzie Open and the knock out stages of the Champions League. The denouement of the premiership....and gosh we've got wimbledon already.

    And then we're going to be back in full blown election cycles...France, Germany. The obligatory annual Labour leadership shambles, the knifing of T. May and yes, soon enough we'll be back into the footie season again. How sublime is that.

    It's a major reason I'm going to regret leaving this wonderful planet when my times up. All those elections, footie tournaments, test matches, films to watch, books to read that I'll miss out on. Damn it.
    Test matches especially.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Full details of the Remington Research US state polls

    Colorado Clinton 45 Trump 43
    Florida Clinton 46 Trump 46
    Nevada Clinton 44 Trump 47 Johnson 4
    Ohio Clinton 42 Trump 46
    Pennsylvania Clinton 45 Trump 42
    Virginia Clinton 48 Trump 43
    Wisconsin Clinton 46 Trump 41
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_CO_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_FL_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_NV_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_OH_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_PA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_VA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_WI_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    LBC thinks he will stand as an Ind rather than a Tory. If Shapps is right that gives the Tories a problem, given their rules.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,010
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The outline of Richmond Park looks like Donald Trump's face on Easter Island, or is it just me?

    I see what you mean, but the profile is far too distinguished, and the hair unduly flattering.
    Donald in his dreams, perhaps.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Black_Rook said:

    Repeated from previous thread:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/790957011500470272

    Apologies, but this is highly relevant if true. Goldsmith's chances of victory must, presumably, be greatly increased in a straight fight with the yellows.

    It will basically be the equivalent of David Davis' ego trip in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election which saw him comfortably returned, only with the addition of the LDs also standing on an anti Heathrow ticket like Zac. Perhaps SeanT could be persuaded to stand to at least give the pro Heathrow cause a hearing?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    If Conservatives not fielding a candidate against Goldsmith, then this becomes an even more fascinating test of Lib Dem strength, and of the possible ability of Continuity Remain sentiment to motivate voters. If Goldsmith can defend successfully then, despite the fact that he'll be returned as an independent, this will still be a big boost for the Government.

    Will also be interesting to see if the Labour vote share holds up. There wasn't very much evidence of leakage from Lab back to LD in Witney.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited October 2016
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    To say it again, the proposed Heathrow expansion is *NORTH* of the existing airport. The day the new runway opens there will be *FEWER* planes landing over Richmond Park.

    Zac's NIMBY consituents should be in favour of the new runway.

    You're not seriously trying to bring logic to bear on this are you?
    Yep! The approach path for the new runway would be along the top of the image in the header, over Chiswick rdbt and passing north of Brentford.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Cicero said:

    Actually I think this is a much tougher prospect for the Lib Dems than it first appears. The boundary changes since 2010 are pretty consequential and a fair part of the new seat was solidly Conservative. More to the point the seat was losing its Liberal support even from the 2005 election. From a betting perspective, this is not a done deal in any way, so I think OGH scents a chance of a misprice on the Tories...

    I agree. The L/Dem stronghold in Richmond Park was centred on the Barnes and Kew areas which has been reduced and now has a changing population, some from Eastern European immigration which has soured some natives.
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91

    Confirmed Tories won't run against Goldsmith-avoids a political headache, but risks looking like May doesnt want to fight to defend decision

    — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 25, 2016
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Repeated from previous thread:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/790957011500470272

    Apologies, but this is highly relevant if true. Goldsmith's chances of victory must, presumably, be greatly increased in a straight fight with the yellows.

    It will basically be the equivalent of David Davis' ego trip in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election which saw him comfortably returned, only with the addition of the LDs also standing on an anti Heathrow ticket like Zac. Perhaps SeanT could be persuaded to stand to at least give the pro Heathrow cause a hearing?
    Perhaps the Labour candidate will turn out to have pro-Heathrow sympathies?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?

    I'm trying to work out if Theresa May has overuled Grant Shapps.

    The only way their two statements reconcile is if Zac stands as the Tory, or else one of them is wrong. Probably Shapps.
    Grant Shapps was speaking as the FORMER Tory Chairman who had long planned for a Richmond Park by election.
    TSE- there is no way TM is going to want to run a campaign against an Independent Zak, and a resurgent Yellow Peril- you can almost hear OGH galloping along on his prize stallion into battle.

    A mainstream Tory party candidate would be shellacked (is that the right word?) if they offered a candidate.....I mean lost deposit kind of humiliation. She's not going to walk into that one.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    Talk about Richmond by election?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    JenS said:

    Confirmed Tories won't run against Goldsmith-avoids a political headache, but risks looking like May doesnt want to fight to defend decision

    — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 25, 2016
    Unless Zac is running as a Conservative that is an atrocious decision.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    ZG says his party has broken its promise not to proceed with LHR3. So he will keep his promise to allow Richmond residents to vote again now LHR3 is the decision. Makes the point that taxpayers will carry a big cost from the scheme, as well as the pollution, noise, disruption and unlikelihood it will actually ever happen. Will be a millstone for the government for years.

    Loves his constituency etc, etc. Has resigned - will stand as an independent candidate.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the Remington Research US state polls

    Colorado Clinton 45 Trump 43
    Florida Clinton 46 Trump 46
    Nevada Clinton 44 Trump 47 Johnson 4
    Ohio Clinton 42 Trump 46
    Pennsylvania Clinton 45 Trump 42
    Virginia Clinton 48 Trump 43
    Wisconsin Clinton 46 Trump 41
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_CO_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_FL_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_NV_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_OH_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_PA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_VA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_WI_Oct_25th_2016.pdf

    Trump doesn't score less than 15% AA vote in any of those polls. Remarkable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Wants by-election to be a referendum on LHR (doesn't say who will stand for the other side!).

    No questions.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The outline of Richmond Park looks like Donald Trump's face on Easter Island, or is it just me?

    LOL
    I'm also seeing a duck on top of Trump's head too.
    True. Suggests a huge psychological impact on your mind by The Donald that tallies with electoral success.
    I remember psychiatrists noticing that Alzheimer's patients were able to name Thatcher as the PM even as they failed other rudimentary questions in the mental state questionnaire such as what year or month is it. Other PMs were much less memorable to the impaired.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    That's it with all elections. That post election blues, though I'll be glad to get 2016 POTUS over and done with.

    That's why it is important to have other hobbies. Tonight there's a mouth watering footie match- football the sport invented to get men through the winter. Then there's a delicious 5 test series vis India. The ATP O2 Tour finals. Then Christmas, a welcome deviation. Then we move swiftly onto the Ozzie Open and the knock out stages of the Champions League. The denouement of the premiership....and gosh we've got wimbledon already.

    And then we're going to be back in full blown election cycles...France, Germany. The obligatory annual Labour leadership shambles, the knifing of T. May and yes, soon enough we'll be back into the footie season again. How sublime is that.

    It's a major reason I'm going to regret leaving this wonderful planet when my times up. All those elections, footie tournaments, test matches, films to watch, books to read that I'll miss out on. Damn it.
    Test matches especially.
    A Test Match, the most exquisite exercise in sports and betting ever devised.

    Also the best excuse ever for spending five concecutive days drinking before lunch.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited October 2016
    ToryJim said:

    JenS said:

    Confirmed Tories won't run against Goldsmith-avoids a political headache, but risks looking like May doesnt want to fight to defend decision

    — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 25, 2016
    Unless Zac is running as a Conservative that is an atrocious decision.

    '''Tis against party rules, according to Grant Shapps
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,010
    DavidL said:

    So Zac stands as the Tory and gets re-elected, continues to oppose Heathrow expansion and the government carries on with the announced policy. What is the point of this exactly?

    That question has surely got to be the Lib Dems best chance. Self-indulgent piffle.

    "What is the point of this exactly?"

    Will leave everyone more or less happy (including MS, evidently). Zach gets to make his futile gesture; the constituents the opportunity to protest - and the likelihood is he'll get re-elected keeping his pro-Brexit vote safe.
    The general cost and inconvenience to everyone else... negligible compared to the cost and inconvenience of everything else over the next couple of years.

    Should the LDs pull off a surprise win, at least Mike will be happy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    IanB2 said:

    LBC thinks he will stand as an Ind rather than a Tory. If Shapps is right that gives the Tories a problem, given their rules.

    If he's allowed to run as an unopposed independent surely it gives the entire Tory parliamentary party licence to vote against the government on any issue they feel like?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    So Zac stands as the Tory and gets re-elected, continues to oppose Heathrow expansion and the government carries on with the announced policy. What is the point of this exactly?

    That question has surely got to be the Lib Dems best chance. Self-indulgent piffle.

    "What is the point of this exactly?"

    Will leave everyone more or less happy (including MS, evidently). Zach gets to make his futile gesture; the constituents the opportunity to protest - and the likelihood is he'll get re-elected keeping his pro-Brexit vote safe.
    The general cost and inconvenience to everyone else... negligible compared to the cost and inconvenience of everything else over the next couple of years.

    Should the LDs pull off a surprise win, at least Mike will be happy.
    But he is NOT standing as a Tory - giving the party a tricky decision to make.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Wonder if @MikeK will vote UKIP or Zac ?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    What will we do on pb after 8 November? Argue about Brexit, same as always.

    That's it with all elections. That post election blues, though I'll be glad to get 2016 POTUS over and done with.

    That's why it is important to have other hobbies. Tonight there's a mouth watering footie match- football the sport invented to get men through the winter. Then there's a delicious 5 test series vis India. The ATP O2 Tour finals. Then Christmas, a welcome deviation. Then we move swiftly onto the Ozzie Open and the knock out stages of the Champions League. The denouement of the premiership....and gosh we've got wimbledon already.

    And then we're going to be back in full blown election cycles...France, Germany. The obligatory annual Labour leadership shambles, the knifing of T. May and yes, soon enough we'll be back into the footie season again. How sublime is that.

    It's a major reason I'm going to regret leaving this wonderful planet when my times up. All those elections, footie tournaments, test matches, films to watch, books to read that I'll miss out on. Damn it.
    Test matches especially.
    The timing of the southern hemisphere matches are sublime.....miserable winter, dark mornings listening to TMS, Aggers and Blowers.......at breakfast you can melt into the commentary, and almost feel the heat of that sun on your face, that golden Indian sunset coming in.....

    TMS: the winter series is worth my licence fee alone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    IanB2 said:

    Wants by-election to be a referendum on LHR (doesn't say who will stand for the other side!).

    No questions.

    But a constituency largely comprised of parkland does not get to determine the UK transport policy. Or the national interest. Or pretty much anything except who gets to represent them in Parliament. Along with 649 others.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the Remington Research US state polls

    Colorado Clinton 45 Trump 43
    Florida Clinton 46 Trump 46
    Nevada Clinton 44 Trump 47 Johnson 4
    Ohio Clinton 42 Trump 46
    Pennsylvania Clinton 45 Trump 42
    Virginia Clinton 48 Trump 43
    Wisconsin Clinton 46 Trump 41
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_CO_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_FL_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_NV_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_OH_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_PA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_VA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_WI_Oct_25th_2016.pdf

    Trump doesn't score less than 15% AA vote in any of those polls. Remarkable.
    Pennsylvania will be the Sunderland. The death knell for Hillary's ambitions.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/790964369500889100

    Some insist that the EU doesn't mean to turn itself into a federal union with common tax rates. You could've fooled me...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JenS said:

    Confirmed Tories won't run against Goldsmith-avoids a political headache, but risks looking like May doesnt want to fight to defend decision

    — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 25, 2016
    Zac running as an independent with no Conservative challenger makes Zac look stupid for resigning on a principal on which he will not be opposed by Conservative, Lib Dem or Labour candidates, all of whom will oppose the third runway (or not stand in the case of the Conservatives).

    Good tactics by T May.

    However, the local party might have a final say about whether to stand a Conservative candidate.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    foxinsoxuk said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/790957011500470272

    Shame. We could have given Richmond a proper Conservative to vote for not just an ego in a suit.
    Send the bugger a bill for wasting voters time. Twat.
    Well, hopefully that's what the electorate will do. The libs will make it all about hard brexit - send a message to May, Liam Fox and David Davis will be the content of every focus newsletter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    williamglenn said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC thinks he will stand as an Ind rather than a Tory. If Shapps is right that gives the Tories a problem, given their rules.

    If he's allowed to run as an unopposed independent surely it gives the entire Tory parliamentary party licence to vote against the government on any issue they feel like?
    Exactly. Either Zac stands as a Conservative or the Conservatives should stand against him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Sandpit said:

    williamglenn said:

    IanB2 said:

    LBC thinks he will stand as an Ind rather than a Tory. If Shapps is right that gives the Tories a problem, given their rules.

    If he's allowed to run as an unopposed independent surely it gives the entire Tory parliamentary party licence to vote against the government on any issue they feel like?
    Exactly. Either Zac stands as a Conservative or the Conservatives should stand against him.
    He just burnt the first bridge at his press launch
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?

    I'm trying to work out if Theresa May has overuled Grant Shapps.

    The only way their two statements reconcile is if Zac stands as the Tory, or else one of them is wrong. Probably Shapps.
    Grant Shapps was speaking as the FORMER Tory Chairman who had long planned for a Richmond Park by election.
    TSE- there is no way TM is going to want to run a campaign against an Independent Zak, and a resurgent Yellow Peril- you can almost hear OGH galloping along on his prize stallion into battle.

    A mainstream Tory party candidate would be shellacked (is that the right word?) if they offered a candidate.....I mean lost deposit kind of humiliation. She's not going to walk into that one.
    Can I just point out to everyone how clever and insightful and utterly brilliant I am. When Tyson says something.....you better take note......

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,147
    Would it not have been more simple for Mt Goldsmith to honour his pedge to resign by offering his resignation to his local Conservative party? If they had refused it, he need not have gone the Chiltern Hundreds/by-election route.

    It would have saved a lot of money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    edited October 2016
    Monksfield said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/790957011500470272

    Shame. We could have given Richmond a proper Conservative to vote for not just an ego in a suit.
    Send the bugger a bill for wasting voters time. Twat.
    Well, hopefully that's what the electorate will do. The libs will make it all about hard brexit - send a message to May, Liam Fox and David Davis will be the content of every focus newsletter.
    It sends no message as Zac is not an official Conservative candidate May can dismiss any LD win as a protest at his waste of time and money and she gets rid of the main troublemaker on Heathrow on her backbenches. However if Zac wins it can be seen as a victory for a Brexiteer in a Remain seat, a blow to soft Brexiteers and EUphiles. May has played a blinder on this, it is win win for her!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited October 2016
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/790964369500889100
    Some insist that the EU doesn't mean to turn itself into a federal union with common tax rates. You could've fooled me...

    What chance Ireland following us out, if this comes to pass...?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    If he's held a press conference, isn't it odd we don't know whether Goldsmith is running as an independent or Conservative?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    If Zac Goldsmith did return as an Independent could The Government count on his support on other issues?

    If the LD did win, on paper the majority falls to 14.

    http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    A patriotic decision from Mrs May. Clearly putting country before party. Zac in the Commons is preferable to a Lib Dem MP set on preventing Brexit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    It's politically expedient at the expense of party management.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    Shocking isn't it!

    Frit, frit, frit. What will the sensible wing of the party threaten now on Fox and Davis's lunacy. Can't see the May premiership lasting a year at this rate.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the Remington Research US state polls

    Colorado Clinton 45 Trump 43
    Florida Clinton 46 Trump 46
    Nevada Clinton 44 Trump 47 Johnson 4
    Ohio Clinton 42 Trump 46
    Pennsylvania Clinton 45 Trump 42
    Virginia Clinton 48 Trump 43
    Wisconsin Clinton 46 Trump 41
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_CO_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_FL_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_NV_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_OH_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_PA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_VA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_WI_Oct_25th_2016.pdf

    Trump doesn't score less than 15% AA vote in any of those polls. Remarkable.
    Pennsylvania will be the Sunderland. The death knell for Hillary's ambitions.
    How is the mescaline going down in your part of Italy? I get the real quality in Florence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,909
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    Will we see Boris Johnson campaigning against his own government's policy in a by election?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. SE, unless Goldsmith loses. The May's failed twice over.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    It's politically expedient at the expense of party management.
    Just imagine if those Tory MPs in constituencies that voted Remain start following Zac's lead....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,010
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    So Zac stands as the Tory and gets re-elected, continues to oppose Heathrow expansion and the government carries on with the announced policy. What is the point of this exactly?

    That question has surely got to be the Lib Dems best chance. Self-indulgent piffle.

    "What is the point of this exactly?"

    Will leave everyone more or less happy (including MS, evidently). Zach gets to make his futile gesture; the constituents the opportunity to protest - and the likelihood is he'll get re-elected keeping his pro-Brexit vote safe.
    The general cost and inconvenience to everyone else... negligible compared to the cost and inconvenience of everything else over the next couple of years.

    Should the LDs pull off a surprise win, at least Mike will be happy.
    But he is NOT standing as a Tory - giving the party a tricky decision to make.
    A pretty simple decision, assuming that they aren't sticking to their principles.
    ;-)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    AndyJS said:

    What's the point of the LDs fighting Zac if they both have the same opinion on Heathrow? There would only be a purpose in them contesting the seat if the Tories were fighting it as well, which it sounds like they aren't.

    Zac is against the EU.

    His father founded an anti-EU party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    Bet gone astray TSE?

    Actually, it is a bit wet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Is Zac the new Mark Reckless?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    < blockquote class="Quote" rel="Pulpstar">Wonder if @MikeK will vote UKIP or Zac ?

    I must tell all that my voting days are over in the Richmond Park consistuancy as I no longer live in the area. Sorry to spoil your merriment Pulpstar, and all that. ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wants by-election to be a referendum on LHR (doesn't say who will stand for the other side!).

    No questions.

    But a constituency largely comprised of parkland does not get to determine the UK transport policy. Or the national interest. Or pretty much anything except who gets to represent them in Parliament. Along with 649 others.
    And, more to the point, it can't really be a referendum on the proposal, with no-one on the other side, unless he expects to be returned with a massive personal vote in support of his position?

    The first, and potentially tricky, job for the LibDems is to get the election away from being the referendum Zak is asking for. Given that the LibDems have the more credible record in opposing LHR3 - indeed it was probably only the coalition, behind the scenes, that delivered such a strong position from the 2010 government in the first place (which fortunately coincided with Boris's self-interest) - hopefully this shouldn't be too difficult. The task is to blacken the self-indulgent way ZG has handled the whole affair. And to bring Brexit into the equation.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/790964369500889100
    Some insist that the EU doesn't mean to turn itself into a federal union with common tax rates. You could've fooled me...

    What chance Ireland following us out, if this comes to pass...?
    Ireland being part of the EU is the basis of their tax arrangements with corps. No EU membership no favourable tax arrangements.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,230
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've been watching Doctor Strange all day, has Zac resigned just as MP, or has he resigned from the Tory party too?

    I'm trying to work out if Theresa May has overuled Grant Shapps.

    The only way their two statements reconcile is if Zac stands as the Tory, or else one of them is wrong. Probably Shapps.
    Grant Shapps was speaking as the FORMER Tory Chairman who had long planned for a Richmond Park by election.
    TSE- there is no way TM is going to want to run a campaign against an Independent Zak, and a resurgent Yellow Peril- you can almost hear OGH galloping along on his prize stallion into battle.

    A mainstream Tory party candidate would be shellacked (is that the right word?) if they offered a candidate.....I mean lost deposit kind of humiliation. She's not going to walk into that one.
    Can I just point out to everyone how clever and insightful and utterly brilliant I am. When Tyson says something.....you better take note......

    It's the modesty that gets me. I am in awe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    No, it is a brilliant decision as set out below
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    David_Evershed said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's the point of the LDs fighting Zac if they both have the same opinion on Heathrow? There would only be a purpose in them contesting the seat if the Tories were fighting it as well, which it sounds like they aren't.

    Zac is against the EU.

    His father founded an anti-EU party.
    Indeed. His family is to blame for the mess we are in.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    David_Evershed said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's the point of the LDs fighting Zac if they both have the same opinion on Heathrow? There would only be a purpose in them contesting the seat if the Tories were fighting it as well, which it sounds like they aren't.

    Zac is against the EU.

    His father founded an anti-EU party.
    "OUT! OUT! OUT!" :)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    Will we see Boris Johnson campaigning against his own government's policy in a by election?
    QTWTAIN
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    It's politically expedient at the expense of party management.
    Just imagine if those Tory MPs in constituencies that voted Remain start following Zac's lead....
    then the govt would lose it's majority, there would be a GE, they'd be de-selected and out of a job within 6 weeks.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Morris_Dancer said:

    If he's held a press conference, isn't it odd we don't know whether Goldsmith is running as an independent or Conservative?

    Didn't you read my post? He said clearly he would stand as an Independent.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    It's politically expedient at the expense of party management.
    Just imagine if those Tory MPs in constituencies that voted Remain start following Zac's lead....
    I didn't say it was a good decision, I'd put up a pro-HR3 candidate and let Zac win it by soft pedalling.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    It's politically expedient at the expense of party management.
    Just imagine if those Tory MPs in constituencies that voted Remain start following Zac's lead....
    I've been a fan of Mrs May up until now, but if we won't stand a Conservative candidate in a by-election then we deserve to lose to the LDs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/790964369500889100
    Some insist that the EU doesn't mean to turn itself into a federal union with common tax rates. You could've fooled me...

    What chance Ireland following us out, if this comes to pass...?
    Ireland being part of the EU is the basis of their tax arrangements with corps. No EU membership no favourable tax arrangements.
    So why would they bother staying in the EU, if that advantage is removed by a common corporate tax rate?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sandpit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/790964369500889100
    Some insist that the EU doesn't mean to turn itself into a federal union with common tax rates. You could've fooled me...

    What chance Ireland following us out, if this comes to pass...?
    I don't think Ireland will contemplate going (at least not for a very long time - there's more chance of the EU edifice collapsing than there is of Irexit,) and in any event I don't see this proposal being carried. It's more a signal of intent than a practical policy.

    Of course, not merely the harmonization but the actual federalization of a large chunk of the tax base is what the EU requires, in order to give the Euro a chance of working properly. It's at once necessary, and one of the numerous things on which this stuck-in-the-mud organisation, spinning its wheels and unable to gain proper traction to move in either direction, is unable to agree. A terrible mess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,715
    Black_Rook said:

    HYUFD said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Repeated from previous thread:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/790957011500470272

    Apologies, but this is highly relevant if true. Goldsmith's chances of victory must, presumably, be greatly increased in a straight fight with the yellows.

    It will basically be the equivalent of David Davis' ego trip in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election which saw him comfortably returned, only with the addition of the LDs also standing on an anti Heathrow ticket like Zac. Perhaps SeanT could be persuaded to stand to at least give the pro Heathrow cause a hearing?
    Perhaps the Labour candidate will turn out to have pro-Heathrow sympathies?
    Unlikely if Corbyn has anything to do with it
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    David_Evershed said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    Will we see Boris Johnson campaigning against his own government's policy in a by election?
    QTWTAIN
    All the signs are that Boris has done his bit today by commenting adversely on the government's decision, and he will now disappear from view.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    Will we see Boris Johnson campaigning against his own government's policy in a by election?
    Boris' Estury plan for a new airport was the most sensible from a growth and expansion point of view.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    tyson said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Full details of the Remington Research US state polls

    Colorado Clinton 45 Trump 43
    Florida Clinton 46 Trump 46
    Nevada Clinton 44 Trump 47 Johnson 4
    Ohio Clinton 42 Trump 46
    Pennsylvania Clinton 45 Trump 42
    Virginia Clinton 48 Trump 43
    Wisconsin Clinton 46 Trump 41
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_CO_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_FL_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_NV_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_OH_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_PA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_VA_Oct_25th_2016.pdf
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_WI_Oct_25th_2016.pdf

    Trump doesn't score less than 15% AA vote in any of those polls. Remarkable.
    Pennsylvania will be the Sunderland. The death knell for Hillary's ambitions.
    How is the mescaline going down in your part of Italy? I get the real quality in Florence.
    Michael Moore memorably and perceptively dubbed Pennsylvania one of the " Brexit States ". You should check him out.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What an appalling, atrocious, and cowardly decision by Mrs May. She's yellow, sack up woman and defend your Heathrow decision. You wouldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing this with the wets.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/790962858549010432

    It's politically expedient at the expense of party management.
    Just imagine if those Tory MPs in constituencies that voted Remain start following Zac's lead....
    Their constituency associations are unlikely to be as Remain as they are. I get the calculation in this but it wouldn't apply to Remainers
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    If allowed a free run by the Cons, Zac wins this.

    I think.

    3/1 LD
    1/3 Zac

    Would be my best stab at the odds.
This discussion has been closed.