I wonder if someone else might come forward and call themselves an Independent Conservative on the basis that Tory voters should be given an option to support rather than simply backing Zac as an Independent..
Although I think Zac should be favourite, the odds now might be about right. One thing which might work against him is that this is the fourth occasion in 18 months when he's asked the good burghers of Richmond for their votes (GE2015, his mini-plebiscite on whether he should stand for Mayor, standing for Mayor, and now a rather pointless by-election).
Although I think Zac should be favourite, the odds now might be about right. One thing which might work against him is that this is the fourth occasion in 18 months when he's asked the good burghers of Richmond for their votes (GE2015, his mini-plebiscite on whether he should stand for Mayor, standing for Mayor, and now a rather pointless by-election).
One of the longstanding posters on UKPollingReport, Barnaby Marder, has said on the site that he is interested in seeking the Labour nomination in Richmond Park.
Although I think Zac should be favourite, the odds now might be about right. One thing which might work against him is that this is the fourth occasion in 18 months when he's asked the good burghers of Richmond for their votes (GE2015, his mini-plebiscite on whether he should stand for Mayor, standing for Mayor, and now a rather pointless by-election).
Okay then, let's cancel election day in Florida. We already know the result.
No of course not but if Trump did win Florida and added it to Ohio and Iowa and held the Romney states he would be on 258 EC votes. He would then only need to add the 20 EC votes from Pennsylvania to get over the 270 mark
I was having a go at the person behind the tweet, not you, (of course).
Although I think Zac should be favourite, the odds now might be about right. One thing which might work against him is that this is the fourth occasion in 18 months when he's asked the good burghers of Richmond for their votes (GE2015, his mini-plebiscite on whether he should stand for Mayor, standing for Mayor, and now a rather pointless by-election).
If he wins, where will he sit in the commons ?
Great point! Next to Skinner and the SNP I hope.
He can sit with Douglas Carswell. They'll both represent egos parties with equal standing in Westminster.
I wonder if someone else might come forward and call themselves an Independent Conservative on the basis that Tory voters should be given an option to support rather than simply backing Zac as an Independent..
I was wondering if an independent who decribed himself as Conversative on the ballot paper might divert enough votes to affect the result.
Okay then, let's cancel election day in Florida. We already know the result.
No of course not but if Trump did win Florida and added it to Ohio and Iowa and held the Romney states he would be on 258 EC votes. He would then only need to add the 20 EC votes from Pennsylvania to get over the 270 mark
Is that all he has to do! piece of piss. All the polls support this.
Okay then, let's cancel election day in Florida. We already know the result.
No of course not but if Trump did win Florida and added it to Ohio and Iowa and held the Romney states he would be on 258 EC votes. He would then only need to add the 20 EC votes from Pennsylvania to get over the 270 mark
Is that all he has to do! piece of piss. All the polls support this.
He leads Ohio and Iowa in the RCP average, 1 pollster today had him tied in Florida and just 3 behind in Pennsylvania. Goodnight
Okay then, let's cancel election day in Florida. We already know the result.
No of course not but if Trump did win Florida and added it to Ohio and Iowa and held the Romney states he would be on 258 EC votes. He would then only need to add the 20 EC votes from Pennsylvania to get over the 270 mark
Is that all he has to do! piece of piss. All the polls support this.
He leads Ohio and Iowa in the RCP average, 1 pollster today had him tied in Florida and just 3 behind in Pennsylvania. Goodnight
its odd how you use different methods, and different pollsters. For example, rcp averages have him massively behind in florida and Pen. are you cherry picking perchance.
Okay then, let's cancel election day in Florida. We already know the result.
No of course not but if Trump did win Florida and added it to Ohio and Iowa and held the Romney states he would be on 258 EC votes. He would then only need to add the 20 EC votes from Pennsylvania to get over the 270 mark
Is that all he has to do! piece of piss. All the polls support this.
He leads Ohio and Iowa in the RCP average, 1 pollster today had him tied in Florida and just 3 behind in Pennsylvania. Goodnight
its odd how you use different methods, and different pollsters. For example, rcp averages have him massively behind in florida and Pen. are you cherry picking perchance.
The RCP average has Trump 3.1% behind in Florida and 5.7% behind in Pennsylvania which is not massively behind, indeed in Florida he trails by significantly less than the 5.4% he does nationally http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
I don't understand the data, at least as Luntz gives it.
R's usually start w/HUGE EV advantage, which whittles down by elex-day. This time? Already gone!
Huge advantage percentage-wise, but from relatively few votes as historically vote-by-mail was low this early into the vote. This year far more people (Rep and Dem) have voted by mail so it is not easy to compare.
On the first day of in-person voting in 2012 the vote split was 48.8% Dem - 35.3% Rep. Now it is 45.6% Dem - 37.4% Rep.
I wonder if someone else might come forward and call themselves an Independent Conservative on the basis that Tory voters should be given an option to support rather than simply backing Zac as an Independent..
I was wondering if an independent who decribed himself as Conversative on the ballot paper might divert enough votes to affect the result.
Zac is one of those pols who is known by first name. Not a chance of the scenario you paint.
I wonder if someone else might come forward and call themselves an Independent Conservative on the basis that Tory voters should be given an option to support rather than simply backing Zac as an Independent..
I was wondering if an independent who decribed himself as Conversative on the ballot paper might divert enough votes to affect the result.
Aren't there rules preventing that kind of thing. Your party label has to be registered with the electoral commission and you need permission to use it.
Okay then, let's cancel election day in Florida. We already know the result.
No of course not but if Trump did win Florida and added it to Ohio and Iowa and held the Romney states he would be on 258 EC votes. He would then only need to add the 20 EC votes from Pennsylvania to get over the 270 mark
Is that all he has to do! piece of piss. All the polls support this.
He leads Ohio and Iowa in the RCP average, 1 pollster today had him tied in Florida and just 3 behind in Pennsylvania. Goodnight
its odd how you use different methods, and different pollsters. For example, rcp averages have him massively behind in florida and Pen. are you cherry picking perchance.
The RCP average has Trump 3.1% behind in Florida and 5.7% behind in Pennsylvania which is not massively behind, indeed in Florida he trails by significantly less than the 5.4% he does nationally http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
The thing is that those individual polls you're picking out are quite believable as random statistical variation from the mean. And even though you're picking out the best results for Trump you can find, those numbers still wouldn't be enough to elect him.
Rather than trying to pick and choose some of the more favourable polls, you'd do better just to argue that the polls are wrong, and ignore them. After all, for Trump to get elected, you do need most of the polls to be wrong, and by quite a distance.
I wonder if someone else might come forward and call themselves an Independent Conservative on the basis that Tory voters should be given an option to support rather than simply backing Zac as an Independent..
I was wondering if an independent who decribed himself as Conversative on the ballot paper might divert enough votes to affect the result.
Aren't there rules preventing that kind of thing. Your party label has to be registered with the electoral commission and you need permission to use it.
Yes. You need a form signed by a DNO ( delegated nominations officer) allowing you to use a recognised party label and logo. If you don't have this you are an independent or no description.
Comments
"The overall absentee tally also represented a net gain for the Democrats, as the GOP’s traditionally sizable edge in vote-by-mail was all but erased this year, leaving Republicans with just a 1.7 percent edge over Democrats in ballots returned. In 2012, by contrast, Republicans had a 5.3 percent lead."
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/25/1586571/-Daily-Kos-Elections-early-voting-roundup-Democrats-erase-GOP-advantage-in-Florida
It goes on to suggest that the small Republican lead would already have been erased during the first day of voting in person.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
On the first day of in-person voting in 2012 the vote split was 48.8% Dem - 35.3% Rep. Now it is 45.6% Dem - 37.4% Rep.
Rather than trying to pick and choose some of the more favourable polls, you'd do better just to argue that the polls are wrong, and ignore them. After all, for Trump to get elected, you do need most of the polls to be wrong, and by quite a distance.