People see scary things happen and run away shocker. If in a couple of years things are doing nicely it will swing the other way and that wont be a shocker either.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
I've asked ComRes again. It isn't a VI poll, so stop misleading people.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
I had understood that ComRes were not asking Voting Intention questions for the reason you mention. However, this poll does have such data and is weighted on a past vote basis.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
I had understood that ComRes were not asking Voting Intention questions for the reason you mention. However, this poll does have such data and is weighted on a past vote basis.
Who are we going to believe? You or ComRes say that their poll doesn't include a full suite VI question, because the figures you use always flatters Labour and underestimates the Tories because the unweighted figures usually show the country elected a Labour government in May 2015
You act as if Remain have agency. They don't: LEAVE won, remember. If the May Government is too Remainian for you, please feel free to depose it. Leaver's are in the Brexit department, International Trade, and Foreign Secretary. All I see in the newspapers is LEAVErs complaining about Remainians bullying them...somehow. Presumably by magic. What do you want, flowers? Stop complaining, grow up and crack on.
Honestly... (stomps off)
Erm.
OKC was suggestion that Leavers were recently taking the attitude of "You lost so shut up". I was mere pointing out that this was the flip side of the attitude being take by Meeks and his irreconcilables of "You BrExit, You Fix it". In effect if you want to disown something and wait for someone else to fix it, seeing how many rocks you can put in their shoes isnt really playing the game.
Table 1/2 ONLINE Opinion Poll Q1_1. For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own opinion? Base: All respondents VOTING INTENTION PAST VOTE – GENERAL ELECTION 2015 Total Cons Lab Lib Dems UKIP Green SNP Cons Lab Lib Dems UKIP Unweighted Total 2037 641 607 149 215 74 80 566 592 125 277 Weighted Total 2037 701 574 158 189
This is the data from the tables . Make of it what you will!
Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.
Just doing a quick google on this suggests that there is a lot of local support for re-opening the Okehampton route, maybe NIMBYs would not be too much of an issue.
If the taxpayer is going to spend serious dosh on railways in the South West, perhaps it would be better if it extended the network in to areas currently deprived of their benefits.
There is much support for it reopening. Though the freight line to Okehampton is sort-of 'reopened' anyway; trains run along it occasionally as part of a preserved railway scheme.
From memory, having read the report, the problems are west of Okehampton towards Tavistock. Not just the famous and beautiful Meldon viaduct, but other works. ISTR there's also problems on the exisiting freight line if you want the new route as double track, where many millions will have to be spent in an area where the formation is troublesome. They could put a single line on it, but not a double. From memory, at least.
Fair go, Mr. J. The Dartmoor Railway has a bloody awful website. Anyway, as keen as I am on good engineering (as you well know) , reopen the line with a single track and steam engines if that is all that can be afforded it is better than nothing.
On a side note I know of several people who would like to use the BlueBell Railway, now that it has been extended to East Grinstead, as a commuter route to London. If only it were open every day all year round it might actually be viable.
'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...
Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east
FT today...
"...Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week warned against such “comfortable” deals and urged companies engaged in sectoral talks on market access to avoid compromising on EU principles — particularly freedom of movement.
Mr Wissmann backed that position. “The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important,” he said. “If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry.”
Germany’s priority must be “to keep the EU 27 together”, he said.
But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period. “If the UK doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Italy’s car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,” he said.
- by the way, this guy Wissmann is the same guy whose pre-referendum comments were taken as evidence the German Car Industry would guarantee us a cushy deal...
His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
I had understood that ComRes were not asking Voting Intention questions for the reason you mention. However, this poll does have such data and is weighted on a past vote basis.
Who are we going to believe? You or ComRes say that their poll doesn't include a full suite VI question, because the figures you use always flatters Labour and underestimates the Tories because the unweighted figures usually show the country elected a Labour government in May 2015
Have Comres confirmed that with regard to this specific poll?
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
And by the way, this sort of reaction is exactly the kind of condescending, bien pensant rubbish - saturated with naked contempt for the electorate - which has so utterly ruined the reputation of the liberal left. Essentially, it says that the public are too stupid to understand what they are voting for, and should therefore be ignored whenever they make a choice of which people like us disapprove.
The liberal left is perilously close to adopting the position of old Victorian Tories, opposing the extension of the franchise - claiming that the proles have too small an investment in the country, and are too stupid and ill-informed, to be trusted with important decisions. Thus their wish to be respected and listened to should be ignored. To borrow from the history of another polity, a system in which an enriched, self-interested and wilfully deaf elite makes all the decisions (and leaves everybody else to cough up their taxes and wallow in the dirt) risks ending in tumbrils, guillotines, and elite heads dropping into baskets. They can't say they've not been warned.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
Saying not to take notice (though they're publishing it anyway) and saying that there is no voting intention poll are two very different things.
Either they're doing a poll or not, if they are completing and publishing a poll according to old methodology then that is still a voting intention poll even if they want new methodology going forward.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
I had understood that ComRes were not asking Voting Intention questions for the reason you mention. However, this poll does have such data and is weighted on a past vote basis.
Who are we going to believe? You or ComRes say that their poll doesn't include a full suite VI question, because the figures you use always flatters Labour and underestimates the Tories because the unweighted figures usually show the country elected a Labour government in May 2015
Have Comres confirmed that with regard to this specific poll?
Yes. They say until they talk about VI in their commentaries about polls we should assume they aren't publishing VI polls and people SHOULD NOT take the figures in the tables as a proper VI
'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...
Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east
FT today...
"...Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week warned against such “comfortable” deals and urged companies engaged in sectoral talks on market access to avoid compromising on EU principles — particularly freedom of movement.
Mr Wissmann backed that position. “The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important,” he said. “If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry.”
Germany’s priority must be “to keep the EU 27 together”, he said.
But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period. “If the UK doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Italy’s car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,” he said.
- by the way, this guy Wissmann is the same guy whose pre-referendum comments were taken as evidence the German Car Industry would guarantee us a cushy deal...
His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Agreed.
So: let me get this clear. The reason Trump is a Presidential nominee is all the fault of the American "liberal élite". Or have I missed something?
Table 1/2 ONLINE Opinion Poll Q1_1. For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own opinion? Base: All respondents VOTING INTENTION PAST VOTE – GENERAL ELECTION 2015 Total Cons Lab Lib Dems UKIP Green SNP Cons Lab Lib Dems UKIP Unweighted Total 2037 641 607 149 215 74 80 566 592 125 277 Weighted Total 2037 701 574 158 189
This is the data from the tables . Make of it what you will!
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
Saying not to take notice (though they're publishing it anyway) and saying that there is no voting intention poll are two very different things.
Either they're doing a poll or not, if they are completing and publishing a poll according to old methodology then that is still a voting intention poll even if they want new methodology going forward.
Read TSE post....He has asked him, it isn't a VI poll.
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Those MPs who voted contrary to the wishes of the majority of their constituents and who still refuse to accept their constituents' wishes should do the honourable thing and resign.
20 fewer would have left a tiny Tory majority; 25 would have meant them the largest party but without a majority.
Not really. Thatcher had a majority of 144 in 1983 s0 having 20 fewer seats would only have reduced that to 104..That said, I do not share the assumption , and believe that without the Falklands War Thatcher would probably have failed to match her 1979 majority of 43.
I was thinking @OldKingCole had accidentally used the figures from 79 rather than 83.
That said, although as you know I disagree with you about the extent of the Falklands impact, I think a Tory majority of over 100 without the splits it engendered in Labour is an optimistic analysis. 50 would be more like it.
I was assuming, perhaps wrongly that Thatcher would have lost about 20-25 seats from her 1979 figures, had the Falklands war not happened.
'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...
Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Agreed.
So: let me get this clear. The reason Trump is a Presidential nominee is all the fault of the American "liberal élite". Or have I missed something?
Yes you have - we will end up with our own 'Trump situation' if the mainstream politicians and parties continue to ignore the popular will. That populous will go for a populist candidate - this is already being seen by swathes of former Labour voters switching to UKIP, seemingly permanently, especially in the north and in 'industrial' cities.
Popularism should be recognised and taken on-board by the mainstream politicians and other elite, and then effectively controlled by delivering that popularist choice via the established means.
This means Brexit. The alternative is not enacting Brexit and finding ourselves with a political revolution.
May and most Conservatives seem to have realised this. Labour and the Lib Dems not so.
Er, the letter is factually inaccurate. Historically we've had very important debates about the conduct of generals during wartime. I'd've thought everybody on here would have instantly thought "Norway debate" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway_Debate ).
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
And by the way, this sort of reaction is exactly the kind of condescending, bien pensant rubbish - saturated with naked contempt for the electorate - which has so utterly ruined the reputation of the liberal left. Essentially, it says that the public are too stupid to understand what they are voting for, and should therefore be ignored whenever they make a choice of which people like us disapprove.
The liberal left is perilously close to adopting the position of old Victorian Tories, opposing the extension of the franchise - claiming that the proles have too small an investment in the country, and are too stupid and ill-informed, to be trusted with important decisions. Thus their wish to be respected and listened to should be ignored. To borrow from the history of another polity, a system in which an enriched, self-interested and wilfully deaf elite makes all the decisions (and leaves everybody else to cough up their taxes and wallow in the dirt) risks ending in tumbrils, guillotines, and elite heads dropping into baskets. They can't say they've not been warned.
Unquote (messed up the quoting)
Cf the Turkey joining the EU issue. On the face of any public position taken by the EU and the UK Turkey is on course to join the EU, a point made by the Leave campaign. This claim by Leave is rubbished on the grounds that all the sophisticated elites involved (including Turkey) were conducting an elaborate charade where all parties recognised that Turkish accession would never actually happen. The laughable error on the part of the proles was their belief that people actually mean what they say.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
Saying not to take notice (though they're publishing it anyway) and saying that there is no voting intention poll are two very different things.
Either they're doing a poll or not, if they are completing and publishing a poll according to old methodology then that is still a voting intention poll even if they want new methodology going forward.
Read TSE post....He has asked him, it isn't a VI poll.
No what he quotes them as saying is that we should not take notice, that is not the same as it not being using their old methodology. A pedantic difference but still a difference.
Of course justin is still wrong to take succour from this for the exact same reason as why they are saying not to take notice.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
Saying not to take notice (though they're publishing it anyway) and saying that there is no voting intention poll are two very different things.
Either they're doing a poll or not, if they are completing and publishing a poll according to old methodology then that is still a voting intention poll even if they want new methodology going forward.
Read TSE post....He has asked him, it isn't a VI poll.
No what he quotes them as saying is that we should not take notice, that is not the same as it not being using their old methodology. A pedantic difference but still a difference.
Of course justin is still wrong to take succour from this for the exact same reason as why they are saying not to take notice.
It isn't their old methodology. They asked more questions when obtaining a VI figure in the past.
No what he quotes them as saying is that we should not take notice, that is not the same as it not being using their old methodology. A pedantic difference but still a difference.
Of course justin is still wrong to take succour from this for the exact same reason as why they are saying not to take notice.
It isn't their old methodology. They asked more questions when obtaining a VI figure in the past.
The figures say "weighted" and "unweighted" so how are they weighting them if not with the old methodology? Do they have new but untrustworthy methodology they are weighting with?
Clinton 1.205 (with £310K laying Clinton at 1.18-1.19) Biden 410 Sanders 420 Kaine 870
Trump 6.3 Pence 280 Ryan 595
McMullin 680
Might Trump get a debate bounce?
The third debate (if there is one) usually has the least impact as does the debate about foreign affairs. I think it is unlikely the forthcoming debate will change many minds. For the few it does foreign affairs generally requires quite a lot of homework. Who thinks Trump would have been up for that?
So unless Hilary does something really spectacularly bad which goes viral post debate I think that the chances of a bounce are small. And so far Hilary has shown herself highly competent at saying nothing at all.
Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.
Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
The way Trump reacts you would think he had never had any contact with the entertainment industry....
Indeed. He should remember from hosting that show, that they have about 30 writers who spend three days writing jokes, then three more days refining them before they go to air. He's never going to win that exchange in a month of Saturday Nights.
I have a feeling that the campaign is getting to him now - he didn't expect it to be quite so nasty, and for certain sections of the media to hate him quite as much as they now clearly do. Only 25 days to go!
The surprising thing about Trump is that, despite the intelligence that is supposed to lie beneath, he hasn't changed his character at all since the primaries. Indeed arguably he has doubled down. Which was never going to win over undecideds.
Even Boris understands that he is supposed to act like a grown up nowadays, even if he isn't quite there.
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Those MPs who voted contrary to the wishes of the majority of their constituents and who still refuse to accept their constituents' wishes should do the honourable thing and resign.
I'm not sure that an entire string of by-elections, the results of which everybody tries to interpret and spin according to their own prejudices, would be helpful right now. If there is any serious, and successful, attempt to delay or block the Brexit process in Parliament then Theresa May will most likely have to go to the country. I am sure that she is sincere when she says that she doesn't want to - for the available evidence suggests that the public doesn't favour an early poll, and there's also one very good political reason why she would rather wait until after Brexit - but under such circumstances she will probably be left with no choice.
No what he quotes them as saying is that we should not take notice, that is not the same as it not being using their old methodology. A pedantic difference but still a difference.
Of course justin is still wrong to take succour from this for the exact same reason as why they are saying not to take notice.
It isn't their old methodology. They asked more questions when obtaining a VI figure in the past.
The figures say "weighted" and "unweighted" so how are they weighting them if not with the old methodology? Do they have new but untrustworthy methodology they are weighting with?
They are currently reviewing their entire methodology after getting GE2015 and the EURef wrong.
That's why the 'VI' shouldn't be used as VI.
The major is issue is their sample had a 82% turnout at Ge2015 and voted in a Labour government
There was a brief discussion earlier about Mrs. Thatcher. Herself has today been having a sort out of the wardrobes in our bedroom and has come across all sorts of old documents and photos. Amongst which was a handwritten letter dated 8th June 1979 from the lady herself, on No 10 note-paper.
It would seem that my late mother-in-law, who was no political activist or even a party member as far as I know, wrote to Mrs. Thatcher congratulating her on becoming PM. Within a few weeks Mrs Thatcher took the time to write back to an obscure woman in Worthing. A letter thanking her for her good wishes, and apologising for the delay in replying caused by all the effort in putting together a new administration. Not a note dictated to some secretary, but a genuine handwritten letter.
How times have changed. Last time I wrote to my MP he couldn't be arsed to reply to me via email. A PM handwriting a reply to a letter from a nobody, never would happen these days.
Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?
You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
40% with Comres last night.
Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
Saying not to take notice (though they're publishing it anyway) and saying that there is no voting intention poll are two very different things.
Either they're doing a poll or not, if they are completing and publishing a poll according to old methodology then that is still a voting intention poll even if they want new methodology going forward.
Read TSE post....He has asked him, it isn't a VI poll.
No what he quotes them as saying is that we should not take notice, that is not the same as it not being using their old methodology. A pedantic difference but still a difference.
Of course justin is still wrong to take succour from this for the exact same reason as why they are saying not to take notice.
With respect I have no wish 'to take succour' at all. Were a General Election to take place over the next few months I would not vote Labour. I simply came across reference to this poll on UKPR and went on to access the tables related to it. I have to say it seems a bit odd that ComRes are doing Voting Intention polls - but apparently not 'proper' Voting Intention polls.
'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...
Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east
FT today...
"...Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week warned against such “comfortable” deals and urged companies engaged in sectoral talks on market access to avoid compromising on EU principles — particularly freedom of movement.
Mr Wissmann backed that position. “The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important,” he said. “If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry.”
Germany’s priority must be “to keep the EU 27 together”, he said.
But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period. “If the UK doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Italy’s car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,” he said.
- by the way, this guy Wissmann is the same guy whose pre-referendum comments were taken as evidence the German Car Industry would guarantee us a cushy deal...
His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Is that the same Nick Cohen who railed against the antiwar protesters in 2003 ?
The surprising thing about Trump is that, despite the intelligence that is supposed to lie beneath, he hasn't changed his character at all since the primaries. Indeed arguably he has doubled down. Which was never going to win over undecideds.
Even Boris understands that he is supposed to act like a grown up nowadays, even if he isn't quite there.
It's almost like it isn't a character.
You wear a mask for long enough, it becomes your face...
I you believe that politicians are Machiavellian geniuses then Hilary couldnt have played the second debate any better. She put on a performance that resonates with undecideds and Dems keeping them interested in her but allowed Trump to message his base unimpeded.
This caused huge problems for the down ticket Republicans who did the endorse, ubendorse, endorse hokey cokey.
Now, assuming you subscribe to the massively coordinated Dem media conspiracy narrative there will be a final shocking Trump revelation just before work after the third debate and Hilary will be going for the kill to allow Senatorial and governors Dems pin Trump support on their opponents that would kill them with undecideds.
Cf the Turkey joining the EU issue. On the face of any public position taken by the EU and the UK Turkey is on course to join the EU, a point made by the Leave campaign. This claim by Leave is rubbished on the grounds that all the sophisticated elites involved (including Turkey) were conducting an elaborate charade where all parties recognised that Turkish accession would never actually happen. The laughable error on the part of the proles was their belief that people actually mean what they say.
You may be surprised to know that I agree with you on that.
No what he quotes them as saying is that we should not take notice, that is not the same as it not being using their old methodology. A pedantic difference but still a difference.
Of course justin is still wrong to take succour from this for the exact same reason as why they are saying not to take notice.
It isn't their old methodology. They asked more questions when obtaining a VI figure in the past.
The figures say "weighted" and "unweighted" so how are they weighting them if not with the old methodology? Do they have new but untrustworthy methodology they are weighting with?
They are currently reviewing their entire methodology after getting GE2015 and the EURef wrong.
That's why the 'VI' shouldn't be used as VI.
The major is issue is their sample had a 82% turnout at Ge2015 and voted in a Labour government
I recall that for 12 months after the 2015 election we were getting Online and Telephone polls from ComRes. The Online version consistently came up with much bigger Tory leads than other pollsters.
Cf the Turkey joining the EU issue. On the face of any public position taken by the EU and the UK Turkey is on course to join the EU, a point made by the Leave campaign. This claim by Leave is rubbished on the grounds that all the sophisticated elites involved (including Turkey) were conducting an elaborate charade where all parties recognised that Turkish accession would never actually happen. The laughable error on the part of the proles was their belief that people actually mean what they say.
You may be surprised to know that I agree with you on that.
Pleased with the agreement, not sure why it is meant to surprise me.
< Fair go, Mr. J. The Dartmoor Railway has a bloody awful website. Anyway, as keen as I am on good engineering (as you well know) , reopen the line with a single track and steam engines if that is all that can be afforded it is better than nothing.
On a side note I know of several people who would like to use the BlueBell Railway, now that it has been extended to East Grinstead, as a commuter route to London. If only it were open every day all year round it might actually be viable.
The CPRE report earlier this year demonstrated that the whole line could be reopened for the £500 million NR want to spend moving the Dawlish route out to sea (which will do nothing to stop sea wall related closures and probably make them more frequent if they put the cliff bottom bit on a causeway thirty metres out to sea as they propose).
The Southern line via Okehampton would be single with three mile or so double track sections at roughly Okehampton and Tavistock and the existing twin single lines west of Crediton reconfigured as double track.
That would support an hourly service plus diversionary trains. As well as Okehampton and Tavistock it would also have a parkway for North Cornwall at Sourton where the A30/A386 junction is.
The CPRE study found that the original NR study was flawed, not only in ramping the cost but in assuming a shuttle service from Plymouth to Exeter. They discovered that if the hourly Waterloo to Exeter was (re)extended to Plymouth giving through London services, usage would be 300% higher than NR thought. It would also need less trains as you would not need two lots of terminating trains to lay over in sidings at Exeter.
There are of course vested interests who dont want a Chiltern Railways type rival running services which would be much cheaper between London and Plymouth.
This is both for commercial reasons and reasons of historical bigotry. Great Western supporters (historical railway not current TOC) see the GWR as a superior railway, Gods Wonderful Railway and thought they had settled the issue when 50 years ago the Southern Railway lines west of Salisbury were transferred to Western Region by British Railways and then rapidly run down and shut wherever possible by a bunch of ex GWR staff with an axe to grind (at the time of the transfer it was quicker from Waterloo to Exeter than it was from Paddington)
Such sentiments have not entirely dissapeared and at every suggestion of reopening a small but noisy cacophony of GWR sympathisers squeal like pigs in much the same way remainers here have been since June.
There was a brief discussion earlier about Mrs. Thatcher. Herself has today been having a sort out of the wardrobes in our bedroom and has come across all sorts of old documents and photos. Amongst which was a handwritten letter dated 8th June 1979 from the lady herself, on No 10 note-paper.
It would seem that my late mother-in-law, who was no political activist or even a party member as far as I know, wrote to Mrs. Thatcher congratulating her on becoming PM. Within a few weeks Mrs Thatcher took the time to write back to an obscure woman in Worthing. A letter thanking her for her good wishes, and apologising for the delay in replying caused by all the effort in putting together a new administration. Not a note dictated to some secretary, but a genuine handwritten letter.
How times have changed. Last time I wrote to my MP he couldn't be arsed to reply to me via email. A PM handwriting a reply to a letter from a nobody, never would happen these days.
When Mrs J wrote to our old Lib Dem MP (Romsey) on a matter, we got a personal reply. Typed on HoC notepaper, not handwritten, but signed. The content was not boilerplate.
That was good enough for us.
I'm unsure if it is realistic to expect handwritten replies nowadays, except on the most critical of business. Word processors and printers are so much easier and efficient (especially with my handwriting!)
There was a brief discussion earlier about Mrs. Thatcher. Herself has today been having a sort out of the wardrobes in our bedroom and has come across all sorts of old documents and photos. Amongst which was a handwritten letter dated 8th June 1979 from the lady herself, on No 10 note-paper.
It would seem that my late mother-in-law, who was no political activist or even a party member as far as I know, wrote to Mrs. Thatcher congratulating her on becoming PM. Within a few weeks Mrs Thatcher took the time to write back to an obscure woman in Worthing. A letter thanking her for her good wishes, and apologising for the delay in replying caused by all the effort in putting together a new administration. Not a note dictated to some secretary, but a genuine handwritten letter.
How times have changed. Last time I wrote to my MP he couldn't be arsed to reply to me via email. A PM handwriting a reply to a letter from a nobody, never would happen these days.
That letter’s probably worth a bob or two now!
I must say that the MP’s, both Labour and Conservative. who have represented me obver the years have generally replied to me when I have sought help, and sometimes when I have made comments. When I have sought help they have generally been helpful and in one case recently extremely supportive. The notable exception was the former MP for Braintree who told that me that ‘it was all the fault of the Labour Government” and when I pointed out that whatever it was had been going on for years before 1997 ceased the correspondence. The two most helpful were his Labour predecessor and someone for whom politically I have no time whatsoever, Priti Patel.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
There was a brief discussion earlier about Mrs. Thatcher. Herself has today been having a sort out of the wardrobes in our bedroom and has come across all sorts of old documents and photos. Amongst which was a handwritten letter dated 8th June 1979 from the lady herself, on No 10 note-paper.
It would seem that my late mother-in-law, who was no political activist or even a party member as far as I know, wrote to Mrs. Thatcher congratulating her on becoming PM. Within a few weeks Mrs Thatcher took the time to write back to an obscure woman in Worthing. A letter thanking her for her good wishes, and apologising for the delay in replying caused by all the effort in putting together a new administration. Not a note dictated to some secretary, but a genuine handwritten letter.
How times have changed. Last time I wrote to my MP he couldn't be arsed to reply to me via email. A PM handwriting a reply to a letter from a nobody, never would happen these days.
When Mrs J wrote to our old Lib Dem MP (Romsey) on a matter, we got a personal reply. Typed on HoC notepaper, not handwritten, but signed. The content was not boilerplate.
That was good enough for us.
I'm unsure if it is realistic to expect handwritten replies nowadays, except on the most critical of business. Word processors and printers are so much easier and efficient (especially with my handwriting!)
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Those MPs who voted contrary to the wishes of the majority of their constituents and who still refuse to accept their constituents' wishes should do the honourable thing and resign.
So Mrs May will be voting against Brexit, then? lol
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
< Fair go, Mr. J. The Dartmoor Railway has a bloody awful website. Anyway, as keen as I am on good engineering (as you well know) , reopen the line with a single track and steam engines if that is all that can be afforded it is better than nothing.
On a side note I know of several people who would like to use the BlueBell Railway, now that it has been extended to East Grinstead, as a commuter route to London. If only it were open every day all year round it might actually be viable.
The CPRE report earlier this year demonstrated that the whole line could be reopened for the £500 million NR want to spend moving the Dawlish route out to sea (which will do nothing to stop sea wall related closures and probably make them more frequent if they put the cliff bottom bit on a causeway thirty metres out to sea as they propose).
The Southern line via Okehampton would be single with three mile or so double track sections at roughly Okehampton and Tavistock and the existing twin single lines west of Crediton reconfigured as double track.
That would support an hourly service plus diversionary trains. As well as Okehampton and Tavistock it would also have a parkway for North Cornwall at Sourton where the A30/A386 junction is.
The CPRE study found that the original NR study was flawed, not only in ramping the cost but in assuming . They discovered that if the hourly Waterloo to Exeter was (re)extended to Plymouth giving through London services, usage would be 300% higher than NR thought. It would also need less trains as you would not need two lots of terminating trains to lay over in sidings at Exeter.
There are of course vested interests who dont want a Chiltern Railways type rival running services which would be much cheaper between London and Plymouth.
This is both for commercial reasons and reasons of historical bigotry. Great Western supporters (historical railway not current TOC) see the GWR as a superior railway, Gods Wonderful Railway and thought they had settled the issue when 50 years ago the Southern Railway lines west of Salisbury were transferred to Western Region by British Railways and then rapidly run down and shut wherever possible by a bunch of ex GWR staff with an axe to grind (at the time of the transfer it was quicker from Waterloo to Exeter than it was from Paddington)
Such sentiments have not entirely dissapeared and at every suggestion of reopening a small but noisy cacophony of GWR sympathisers squeal like pigs in much the same way remainers here have been since June.
Exeter to Paddington is quicker by more than an hour than Exeter to Waterloo. What would be useful would be to extend the Exeter to Paddington service to Plymouth, with no further stops. ATM if you want a train from Plymouth to London it makes sense to drive Plymouth to Exeter and get the train there.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
Those MPs who voted contrary to the wishes of the majority of their constituents and who still refuse to accept their constituents' wishes should do the honourable thing and resign.
So Mrs May will be voting against Brexit, then? lol
"Allow me to give an example. A while ago an acquaintance of mine was on a late night train when some strangers tried to pick a fight with him. He was smartly dressed and this appeared to be the root of the ‘problem’. In the end the police were called and detained the attackers. They also discovered that the victim was gay. At which point the officers apparently spent a considerable amount of time trying to pressure the victim to say that the incident had been motivated by ‘homophobia’.
He didn’t think it had been, not least because nothing about being gay had come up. He insisted on this and succeeded in stopping the hate-crime charges being logged, although it apparently required a lot of persistence to stop the police from doing so. For them, you see, that would have made it a better night’s work. Not just a mundane act of violence on a train, but a hate-crime. I would bet that the police are at this a fair amount...
#PodestaEmails9 Hillary's political circle is concerned about the black vote so they brainstorm ways to pretend they care about black ppl. https://t.co/gKNKfTlBHt
There was a brief discussion earlier about Mrs. Thatcher. Herself has today been having a sort out of the wardrobes in our bedroom and has come across all sorts of old documents and photos. Amongst which was a handwritten letter dated 8th June 1979 from the lady herself, on No 10 note-paper.
It would seem that my late mother-in-law, who was no political activist or even a party member as far as I know, wrote to Mrs. Thatcher congratulating her on becoming PM. Within a few weeks Mrs Thatcher took the time to write back to an obscure woman in Worthing. A letter thanking her for her good wishes, and apologising for the delay in replying caused by all the effort in putting together a new administration. Not a note dictated to some secretary, but a genuine handwritten letter.
How times have changed. Last time I wrote to my MP he couldn't be arsed to reply to me via email. A PM handwriting a reply to a letter from a nobody, never would happen these days.
Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"
To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
What especially significant event took place in 1969?
1969 ... Moon landings. Which is very depressing as a sign of the lack of progress for mankind.
JFK put a Man on the Moon, and Obama has put a Man in the Girls' Bathroom.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
But they wouldn't be in power by themselves, and under fptp the more multi party our voting becomes the lower share of the vote they need to win seats. Today it is 37%, tommorow maybe 30% then perhaps just 13%. Not sustainable.
Exeter to Paddington is quicker by more than an hour than Exeter to Waterloo. What would be useful would be to extend the Exeter to Paddington service to Plymouth, with no further stops. ATM if you want a train from Plymouth to London it makes sense to drive Plymouth to Exeter and get the train there.
Of course it is a lot slower now to Waterloo. BR western region saw to that by singling it west of Salisbury with 40mph turnouts etc.
Not sure what you mean by extending the Exeter to Paddington service to Plymouth as all but a handful of the Paddington trains already go to Plymouth or Paignton.
The waterloo service could be speeded up to get to Exeter in approx 2 hours 20 minutes with partial redoubling and running fast east of Yeovil Junction (calling Salisbury & Clapham Junction only), a non stop service would be quicker than from Paddington but is not on any agendas. This also has the advantage of serving Central station in the City Centre not just dumping you a mile away on the edge of town at St Davids 300 feet below the city centre.
A waterloo to Plymouth service would also give a through Plymouth to Exeter Central service. At the moment commuters, shoppers and business travellers from Plymouth can only go to St Davids.
Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"
To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
What especially significant event took place in 1969?
1969 ... Moon landings. Which is very depressing as a sign of the lack of progress for mankind.
JFK put a Man on the Moon, and Obama has put a Man in the Girls' Bathroom.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
How many do you expect to find, and what's your supporting data?
The notable exception was the former MP for Braintree who told that me that ‘it was all the fault of the Labour Government” and when I pointed out that whatever it was had been going on for years before 1997 ceased the correspondence. The two most helpful were his Labour predecessor and someone for whom politically I have no time whatsoever, Priti Patel.
I wrote to my (Labour) MP a decade or so ago to point out some inadequacies in the then being progressed Personal Service Companies legislation (IR35), and received a brief reply which stated in effect that while she agreed with pretty much all I had said, she was hopeful of a job on the treasury team and hence had no intention of rocking the boat.... it had the merit, at least, of being honest !
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
I think the record for inadequate representation is still held by the Blair administration in 2005 (35.2%).
The CPRE report earlier this year demonstrated that the whole line could be reopened for the £500 million NR want to spend moving the Dawlish route out to sea (which will do nothing to stop sea wall related closures and probably make them more frequent if they put the cliff bottom bit on a causeway thirty metres out to sea as they propose).
The Southern line via Okehampton would be single with three mile or so double track sections at roughly Okehampton and Tavistock and the existing twin single lines west of Crediton reconfigured as double track.
That would support an hourly service plus diversionary trains. As well as Okehampton and Tavistock it would also have a parkway for North Cornwall at Sourton where the A30/A386 junction is.
The CPRE study found that the original NR study was flawed, not only in ramping the cost but in assuming a shuttle service from Plymouth to Exeter. They discovered that if the hourly Waterloo to Exeter was (re)extended to Plymouth giving through London services, usage would be 300% higher than NR thought. It would also need less trains as you would not need two lots of terminating trains to lay over in sidings at Exeter.
There are of course vested interests who dont want a Chiltern Railways type rival running services which would be much cheaper between London and Plymouth.
This is both for commercial reasons and reasons of historical bigotry. Great Western supporters (historical railway not current TOC) see the GWR as a superior railway, Gods Wonderful Railway and thought they had settled the issue when 50 years ago the Southern Railway lines west of Salisbury were transferred to Western Region by British Railways and then rapidly run down and shut wherever possible by a bunch of ex GWR staff with an axe to grind (at the time of the transfer it was quicker from Waterloo to Exeter than it was from Paddington)
Such sentiments have not entirely dissapeared and at every suggestion of reopening a small but noisy cacophony of GWR sympathisers squeal like pigs in much the same way remainers here have been since June.
I read it a while back, and find some of its conclusions rather optimistic. For instance, saying the line could be reopened before 2024 (i.e. eight years) seems out of kilter. The Borders line took ten years from bill to opening, and they're nowhere near a bill.
Also, I'd take Network Rail's figures over the CPRE's, although the CPRE/Greengauge should ensure their data is fed into NR's reports - I think there's still a final one to come?
What happened to the promised thread about why US pollsters weight for Democratic identifiers, and why Democratic identifiers are not the same as Democratic voters? Reading the innumerate bilge from a certain frequent poster who has no perceivable interest in betting, it would seem we need it more than ever.
Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"
To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
What especially significant event took place in 1969?
1969 ... Moon landings. Which is very depressing as a sign of the lack of progress for mankind.
JFK put a Man on the Moon, and Obama has put a Man in the Girls' Bathroom.
Whereas from what we've heard, Trump just enters girls' changing rooms ...
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
My point being that PR doesn't stop those parties we oppose getting into power. Indeed to some extent it makes it easier.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
I think the record for inadequate representation is still held by the Blair administration in 2005 (35.2%).
Yes;. Nearly as bad as 1951 when the party with the biggest share of the vote came second in seats won. And then the Conservative share included the Ulster Unionist vote.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
My point being that PR doesn't stop those parties we oppose getting into power. Indeed to some extent it makes it easier.
Democracy means that sometimes you are on the losing side.
GE VI polling continues to show yawning gap between Con and Lab, others on more or less the same shares that they got in 2015. No implosion in Ukip support visible - my guess would be there has been churn from Lab to Ukip and Ukip to Con in roughly equal numbers - and no sign of a Lib Dem fightback either.
On topic it is worth pointing out that Galloway's appearance at the Grassroots Out Rally was certainly not greeted with delight or enthusiasm. Indeed dismay and derision were the more obvious reactions from those attending.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
I think the record for inadequate representation is still held by the Blair administration in 2005 (35.2%).
Yes;. Nearly as bad as 1951 when the party with the biggest share of the vote came second in seats won. And then the Conservative share included the Ulster Unionist vote.
Though 4 of the Ulster seats in 1951 were unopposed. If contested, the gap in vote share would have been much less, if not eliminated entirely.
1. Khan is a muslim and London has a high share of muslims (though that didn't stop Galloway beating a muslim in a majority muslim seat in a by-election).
2. London was the Remain Heartland, Galloway supported Leave.
This assumption though is why Khan will never be Labour leader:
" Of course there is the possibility with the current make up the Labour membership and the trend of the NEC becoming more in Corbyn’s image "
Khan is a committed anti-Corbyn politician, and even with his position as Mayor he failed to swing London to Owen Smith.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
My point being that PR doesn't stop those parties we oppose getting into power. Indeed to some extent it makes it easier.
Democracy means that sometimes you are on the losing side.
Oh indeed. But my whole point was Nunu seeming to claim he wanted rid of FPTP because Labour could be on power on 37%. I am simply pointing out that with PR they could be in power on a lot less than that. Dislike of one party or another is no basis for supporting a change in voting system..
What happened to the promised thread about why US pollsters weight for Democratic identifiers, and why Democratic identifiers are not the same as Democratic voters? Reading the innumerate bilge from a certain frequent poster who has no perceivable interest in betting, it would seem we need it more than ever.
I'm hoping to publish it on Tues or Wednesday.
I've sent my original draft to someone in the polling industry for review, just to make sure I've got everything right in my piece.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
1. Khan is a muslim and London has a high share of muslims (though that didn't stop Galloway beating a muslim in a majority muslim seat in a by-election).
2. London was the Remain Heartland, Galloway supported Leave.
This assumption though is why Khan will never be Labour leader:
" Of course there is the possibility with the current make up the Labour membership and the trend of the NEC becoming more in Corbyn’s image "
Khan is a committed anti-Corbyn politician, and even with his position as Mayor he failed to swing London to Owen Smith.
I thought Galloway had converted to Islam 15 years or so ago, but doesn't like to talk about it?
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
You'd have thought someone would have mentioned it. Repeatedly.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
My point being that PR doesn't stop those parties we oppose getting into power. Indeed to some extent it makes it easier.
Democracy means that sometimes you are on the losing side.
Oh indeed. But my whole point was Nunu seeming to claim he wanted rid of FPTP because Labour could be on power on 37%. I am simply pointing out that with PR they could be in power on a lot less than that. Dislike of one party or another is no basis for supporting a change in voting system..
Contrary to expectation, the Coalition Government was remarkably successful. Similarly, the Lib-Lab coalition produced a period of stability during a turbulent period in the 70's. I think on the whole the British electorate would like more of it whether centre right or centre left.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
What we see in the 2016 race looks like a repetition of 2012.
Hillary leading by 4 nationally, and by 4-5 points in all swing states bar two (Iowa and Ohio this time, N.Carolina and Florida in 2012).
RCP now says Clinton’s ahead in Ohio. Trailing in Iowa, though.
Forget RCP, they are getting slow because there are not many polls compared with 2012.
In my assumption looking at the polls, Trump should be leading just in Iowa, and a tie in Ohio.
After that there is a big gap of about 4-5 points till another half-dozen states, just like in 2012 where you had 6 states clustered at around 5-7% Obama leads.
You know TSE when I first saw your lead pic today, and I saw Tony Blair and knowing he wants to come back to politics, II thought you were tipping him as the 100/1 shot
Comments
If in a couple of years things are doing nicely it will swing the other way and that wont be a shocker either.
ONLINE Opinion Poll
Q1_1. For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own opinion?
Base: All respondents
VOTING INTENTION
PAST VOTE – GENERAL ELECTION 2015
Total
Cons
Lab
Lib
Dems
UKIP
Green
SNP
Cons
Lab
Lib
Dems
UKIP
Unweighted Total
2037
641
607
149
215
74
80
566
592
125
277
Weighted Total
2037
701
574
158
189
This is the data from the tables . Make of it what you will!
On a side note I know of several people who would like to use the BlueBell Railway, now that it has been extended to East Grinstead, as a commuter route to London. If only it were open every day all year round it might actually be viable.
One for all the Merkels and Meeks out there.
Part of the "liberal elite" still doesn't get it:
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/787629286039642112
And part does:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3839883/DAN-HODGES-want-revolution-spark-it.html
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/787629286039642112
And by the way, this sort of reaction is exactly the kind of condescending, bien pensant rubbish - saturated with naked contempt for the electorate - which has so utterly ruined the reputation of the liberal left. Essentially, it says that the public are too stupid to understand what they are voting for, and should therefore be ignored whenever they make a choice of which people like us disapprove.
The liberal left is perilously close to adopting the position of old Victorian Tories, opposing the extension of the franchise - claiming that the proles have too small an investment in the country, and are too stupid and ill-informed, to be trusted with important decisions. Thus their wish to be respected and listened to should be ignored. To borrow from the history of another polity, a system in which an enriched, self-interested and wilfully deaf elite makes all the decisions (and leaves everybody else to cough up their taxes and wallow in the dirt) risks ending in tumbrils, guillotines, and elite heads dropping into baskets. They can't say they've not been warned.
Either they're doing a poll or not, if they are completing and publishing a poll according to old methodology then that is still a voting intention poll even if they want new methodology going forward.
Popularism should be recognised and taken on-board by the mainstream politicians and other elite, and then effectively controlled by delivering that popularist choice via the established means.
This means Brexit. The alternative is not enacting Brexit and finding ourselves with a political revolution.
May and most Conservatives seem to have realised this. Labour and the Lib Dems not so.
cough* tidying up exercise* cough
One for all the Merkels and Meeks out there.
Part of the "liberal elite" still doesn't get it:
htps://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/787629286039642112
And part does:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3839883/DAN-HODGES-want-revolution-spark-it.html
Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
htps://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/787629286039642112
And by the way, this sort of reaction is exactly the kind of condescending, bien pensant rubbish - saturated with naked contempt for the electorate - which has so utterly ruined the reputation of the liberal left. Essentially, it says that the public are too stupid to understand what they are voting for, and should therefore be ignored whenever they make a choice of which people like us disapprove.
The liberal left is perilously close to adopting the position of old Victorian Tories, opposing the extension of the franchise - claiming that the proles have too small an investment in the country, and are too stupid and ill-informed, to be trusted with important decisions. Thus their wish to be respected and listened to should be ignored. To borrow from the history of another polity, a system in which an enriched, self-interested and wilfully deaf elite makes all the decisions (and leaves everybody else to cough up their taxes and wallow in the dirt) risks ending in tumbrils, guillotines, and elite heads dropping into baskets. They can't say they've not been warned.
Unquote (messed up the quoting)
Cf the Turkey joining the EU issue. On the face of any public position taken by the EU and the UK Turkey is on course to join the EU, a point made by the Leave campaign. This claim by Leave is rubbished on the grounds that all the sophisticated elites involved (including Turkey) were conducting an elaborate charade where all parties recognised that Turkish accession would never actually happen. The laughable error on the part of the proles was their belief that people actually mean what they say.
Clinton 1.205 (with £310K laying Clinton at 1.18-1.19)
Biden 410
Sanders 420
Kaine 870
Trump 6.3
Pence 280
Ryan 595
McMullin 680
Might Trump get a debate bounce?
Of course justin is still wrong to take succour from this for the exact same reason as why they are saying not to take notice.
So unless Hilary does something really spectacularly bad which goes viral post debate I think that the chances of a bounce are small. And so far Hilary has shown herself highly competent at saying nothing at all.
That's why the 'VI' shouldn't be used as VI.
The major is issue is their sample had a 82% turnout at Ge2015 and voted in a Labour government
It would seem that my late mother-in-law, who was no political activist or even a party member as far as I know, wrote to Mrs. Thatcher congratulating her on becoming PM. Within a few weeks Mrs Thatcher took the time to write back to an obscure woman in Worthing. A letter thanking her for her good wishes, and apologising for the delay in replying caused by all the effort in putting together a new administration. Not a note dictated to some secretary, but a genuine handwritten letter.
How times have changed. Last time I wrote to my MP he couldn't be arsed to reply to me via email. A PM handwriting a reply to a letter from a nobody, never would happen these days.
Zero gain from expansion for the UK.
The spread east has been of enormous economic value to the Germans as the centre of the EU has drifted with expansion.
This caused huge problems for the down ticket Republicans who did the endorse, ubendorse, endorse hokey cokey.
Now, assuming you subscribe to the massively coordinated Dem media conspiracy narrative there will be a final shocking Trump revelation just before work after the third debate and Hilary will be going for the kill to allow Senatorial and governors Dems pin Trump support on their opponents that would kill them with undecideds.
The Southern line via Okehampton would be single with three mile or so double track sections at roughly Okehampton and Tavistock and the existing twin single lines west of Crediton reconfigured as double track.
That would support an hourly service plus diversionary trains. As well as Okehampton and Tavistock it would also have a parkway for North Cornwall at Sourton where the A30/A386 junction is.
The CPRE study found that the original NR study was flawed, not only in ramping the cost but in assuming a shuttle service from Plymouth to Exeter. They discovered that if the hourly Waterloo to Exeter was (re)extended to Plymouth giving through London services, usage would be 300% higher than NR thought. It would also need less trains as you would not need two lots of terminating trains to lay over in sidings at Exeter.
There are of course vested interests who dont want a Chiltern Railways type rival running services which would be much cheaper between London and Plymouth.
This is both for commercial reasons and reasons of historical bigotry. Great Western supporters (historical railway not current TOC) see the GWR as a superior railway, Gods Wonderful Railway and thought they had settled the issue when 50 years ago the Southern Railway lines west of Salisbury were transferred to Western Region by British Railways and then rapidly run down and shut wherever possible by a bunch of ex GWR staff with an axe to grind (at the time of the transfer it was quicker from Waterloo to Exeter than it was from Paddington)
Such sentiments have not entirely dissapeared and at every suggestion of reopening a small but noisy cacophony of GWR sympathisers squeal like pigs in much the same way remainers here have been since June.
That was good enough for us.
I'm unsure if it is realistic to expect handwritten replies nowadays, except on the most critical of business. Word processors and printers are so much easier and efficient (especially with my handwriting!)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnhza5xkZH4fXQWhb04GOCA
I must say that the MP’s, both Labour and Conservative. who have represented me obver the years have generally replied to me when I have sought help, and sometimes when I have made comments. When I have sought help they have generally been helpful and in one case recently extremely supportive. The notable exception was the former MP for Braintree who told that me that ‘it was all the fault of the Labour Government” and when I pointed out that whatever it was had been going on for years before 1997 ceased the correspondence. The two most helpful were his Labour predecessor and someone for whom politically I have no time whatsoever, Priti Patel.
Josh Jordan – Verified account @NumbersMuncher
Christopher Newport U Virginia poll (change from last):
Clinton 44 (+2)
Trump 29 (-6)
Johnson 11 (-1)
McMullin also outpolling Stein, 3-2.
"and who still refuse to accept "
Roflmao.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/try-turn-whole-life-one-big-hate-crime/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
"Allow me to give an example. A while ago an acquaintance of mine was on a late night train when some strangers tried to pick a fight with him. He was smartly dressed and this appeared to be the root of the ‘problem’. In the end the police were called and detained the attackers. They also discovered that the victim was gay. At which point the officers apparently spent a considerable amount of time trying to pressure the victim to say that the incident had been motivated by ‘homophobia’.
He didn’t think it had been, not least because nothing about being gay had come up. He insisted on this and succeeded in stopping the hate-crime charges being logged, although it apparently required a lot of persistence to stop the police from doing so. For them, you see, that would have made it a better night’s work. Not just a mundane act of violence on a train, but a hate-crime. I would bet that the police are at this a fair amount...
#PodestaEmails9
Hillary's political circle is concerned about the black vote so they brainstorm ways to pretend they care about black ppl. https://t.co/gKNKfTlBHt
JFK put a Man on the Moon, and Obama has put a Man in the Girls' Bathroom.
Not sure what you mean by extending the Exeter to Paddington service to Plymouth as all but a handful of the Paddington trains already go to Plymouth or Paignton.
The waterloo service could be speeded up to get to Exeter in approx 2 hours 20 minutes with partial redoubling and running fast east of Yeovil Junction (calling Salisbury & Clapham Junction only), a non stop service would be quicker than from Paddington but is
not on any agendas. This also has the advantage of serving Central station in the City Centre not just dumping you a mile away on the edge of town at St Davids 300 feet below the city centre.
A waterloo to Plymouth service would also give a through Plymouth to Exeter Central service. At the moment commuters, shoppers and business travellers from Plymouth can only go to St Davids.
Podesta wished that San Bernardino shooter had been white. #PodestaEmails9 https://t.co/BOnWqkOiOH https://t.co/fsVscaGjWi
And how do Democrats appear to care about blacks.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
https://www.scribd.com/document/327758568/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Nevada-Oct-16#from_embed
http://www.cpre.org.uk/resources/transport/rail/item/3986-rural-reconnections
I read it a while back, and find some of its conclusions rather optimistic. For instance, saying the line could be reopened before 2024 (i.e. eight years) seems out of kilter. The Borders line took ten years from bill to opening, and they're nowhere near a bill.
Also, I'd take Network Rail's figures over the CPRE's, although the CPRE/Greengauge should ensure their data is fed into NR's reports - I think there's still a final one to come?
Hillary leading by 4 nationally, and by 4-5 points in all swing states bar two (Iowa and Ohio this time, N.Carolina and Florida in 2012).
GE VI polling continues to show yawning gap between Con and Lab, others on more or less the same shares that they got in 2015. No implosion in Ukip support visible - my guess would be there has been churn from Lab to Ukip and Ukip to Con in roughly equal numbers - and no sign of a Lib Dem fightback either.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-women-propel-hillary-clinton-into-battleground-lead-over-donald-trump/
I'm struggling to find a group they haven't insulted.
Street fighting, vandalism and sexual assault: Mayor of picturesque German ski town begs for help to tackle an 'explosive refugee crime wave'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3840940/Street-fighting-vandalism-sexual-assault-Mayor-picturesque-German-ski-town-begs-help-tackle-explosive-refugee-crime-wave.html
Two problems about Galloway replacing Khan.
1. Khan is a muslim and London has a high share of muslims (though that didn't stop Galloway beating a muslim in a majority muslim seat in a by-election).
2. London was the Remain Heartland, Galloway supported Leave.
This assumption though is why Khan will never be Labour leader:
" Of course there is the possibility with the current make up the Labour membership and the trend of the NEC becoming more in Corbyn’s image "
Khan is a committed anti-Corbyn politician, and even with his position as Mayor he failed to swing London to Owen Smith.
I've sent my original draft to someone in the polling industry for review, just to make sure I've got everything right in my piece.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Wde1fFvPg
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
In my assumption looking at the polls, Trump should be leading just in Iowa, and a tie in Ohio.
After that there is a big gap of about 4-5 points till another half-dozen states, just like in 2012 where you had 6 states clustered at around 5-7% Obama leads.
As higlighted in this article you posted? http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/wikileaks-bombshell-racist-hillary-trashes-african-americans-calls-losers/
That's a spam e-mail.
As I have told you on multiple occasions now.
It was a spam e-mail sent by some random Netherlands e-mail address.
It wasn't even sent to Clinton never mind sent by her.
Why do you keep repeating the lie that this was sent by Clinton?