Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 100/1 tip to win the 2020 London Mayoral election

245

Comments

  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    nielh said:

    tlg86 said:

    Nick Clegg showing complete contempt for the electorate. Like all Remainers he falls into the trap of assuming that all people care about is how far the pound in their pocket goes. As if holidays in Spain are all that matter. This is what the elite think the little people care about. No wonder the Lib Dems got smashed last year.

    Oh, Priti Patel on Marr for anyone who likes her.

    I thought clegg did ok. As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.
    How will anyone know if it has gone down by 5%, there isn't going to be another referendum.

    No one lied to anyone, because as you remainers constantly whine tell us, we havent left yet, ergo there can't be any effects from having left. Or does it only count about us having not left yet when Leavers point at things that haven't happened, as opposed to remainers pointed at things which have happened.

  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    They certainly seem shy in early voting and the ABC poll show a sharp decline in enthusiasm for the Donald.

    FOP is the key .... 1,782 mention .. :smile:
    The election project Twitter had an interesting stat about absentee ballot requests. Female ballot requests in NC surged after the first debate.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Trump in Ohio seems a reasonable value bet.

    3/1 at William Hill.

    I see AZ has gone pink again on 538.
    Trading at Ohio 3/1 is ok. AZ will be tight. If pushed I'd say Clinton and McCain will prevail.
    I think the Hispanic vote will clinch AZ for Clinton, helped by a significant 3rd party vote.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Disraeli, Gladstone, Chamberlain, Baldwin, Butler, the list of failures is endless ;)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    If he loses Florida, he needs all the rest.

    Possible, but difficult.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    They certainly seem shy in early voting and the ABC poll show a sharp decline in enthusiasm for the Donald.

    FOP is the key .... 1,782 mention .. :smile:
    Do u know if there's any more state polls coming out today?
    Normally Sunday is quieter but today I have no specific information either way.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637

    No its just the reality of the situation.
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    Wishing it so wont make it happen.

    Unless they get the numhers to the 1922 commitee in the next week or two, forget it until nov 2017 which is too late and will give her ample time to go to the country with a snap who runs britain election if push comes to shove.
    A year is a long time, and another Tory PM once called a snap "who runs Britain?" election.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Erm, have you seen the polls lately?

    This current Tory administration would win 30-50 more seats than Cameron's Continuity Coalition manifesto.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    nielh said:




    The government will survive only because a credible alternative does not exist. Corbyn Labour is enabling mind-numbing mediocrity. That's good news for May. Very bad news for the country.

    Not sure I totally agree. A competent (in our terms) opposition led by labour moderates would not necessarily have wide electoral appeal. They would be 'more of the same'. Many northern seats broke 70/30 for leave (alan Johnson, ed milliband, etc).
    I think that starmer and Thornberry are doing well on the brexit brief. Admittedly all other areas of policy are pretty much in chaos.
    I'm afraid that the tories have proved themselves incompetent in government over Brexit. It could ruin them if the Brexit moment passes and they dissolve in to dithering. Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/charles-evans-introducing-the-social-conservative-alliance.html

    Are they going to get backers from Business with this ?
    Whats the difference between the anti modern, anti capitalist statist right and Corbyn's international vision of metropolitan socialism?
    Corbyn and Labour have everything to play for. They just need to get their act together.
    British economic policy post 1945 has been a compromise between free Market capitalism land social democracy. May is not going to change that.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    If he loses Florida, he needs all the rest.

    Possible, but difficult.
    If Trump loses Florida where does he realistically get to 270 from ?

    Give Trump PA NH NC OH IA and NV only takes him to 260

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/8XbOG
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    Gorgeous George no longer tickles the pallet of the UK voter. His by election triumphs are a long time ago and his recent electoral outings have been derisory. He's a useless old has been. What sort of a party would elect someone like that as their candidate?

    Oh....
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Disraeli, Gladstone, Chamberlain, Baldwin, Butler, the list of failures is endless ;)
    I don't recall Gladstone being in the party at all?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Indigo, reminds me a bit of the scorpion given a lift across a river by an ox. Which it then stings, causing both to drown.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016

    Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637

    No its just the reality of the situation.
    Remainers look down on the British working classes as lazy while hoping they will rise up and topple May in favour of Osborne Miliband and Clegg if their beer goes up 5%.

    What a lala land those within the m25 and similar metropolitan liberal ghettos in places like Cambridge and Manchester live in.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:




    The government will survive only because a credible alternative does not exist. Corbyn Labour is enabling mind-numbing mediocrity. That's good news for May. Very bad news for the country.

    Not sure I totally agree. A competent (in our terms) opposition led by labour moderates would not necessarily have wide electoral appeal. They would be 'more of the same'. Many northern seats broke 70/30 for leave (alan Johnson, ed milliband, etc).
    I think that starmer and Thornberry are doing well on the brexit brief. Admittedly all other areas of policy are pretty much in chaos.
    I'm afraid that the tories have proved themselves incompetent in government over Brexit. It could ruin them if the Brexit moment passes and they dissolve in to dithering. Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/charles-evans-introducing-the-social-conservative-alliance.html

    Are they going to get backers from Business with this ?
    Whats the difference between the anti modern, anti capitalist statist right and Corbyn's international vision of metropolitan socialism?
    Corbyn and Labour have everything to play for. They just need to get their act together.
    British economic policy post 1945 has been a compromise between free Market capitalism land social democracy. May is not going to change that.
    The idea that 'backers from Business' support free markets is one of the most naïve I've read on PB (and that's saying something).
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    If he loses Florida, he needs all the rest.

    Possible, but difficult.
    No idea how much recent Florida polling has been hurricane-affected....
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited October 2016
    @Paul_Bedfordshire

    'Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637'


    A pity nobody at Sky bothered to listen to David Davis who already confirmed in the HoC that overseas workers would continue to be allowed (on short term visas) to work in the UK at harvest time, just as they did before we joined the EU.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    IanB2 said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Disraeli, Gladstone, Chamberlain, Baldwin, Butler, the list of failures is endless ;)
    I don't recall Gladstone being in the party at all?
    Actually, he was, for about 20 years, before switching to the Liberals.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Didn't bother to read past the preview on the Vanilla site, as it contained a red flag "I am an idiot, ignore my arguments" adjective/noun combination.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Disraeli, Gladstone, Chamberlain, Baldwin, Butler, the list of failures is endless ;)
    I don't recall Gladstone being in the party at all?
    Actually, he was, for about 20 years, before switching to the Liberals.
    So he was!

    As far as the point being made in the earlier post, however, he doesn't really fit in the list.
  • Options
    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    How many marginals are in the shires and how many are metropolitan?
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637

    No its just the reality of the situation.

    One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU, with access to all that easy eastern european labour.

    I doubt badgers will be the threats to British beef post Brexit, more like Argentina
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    There is better value on the market for next conservative leader, I backed david davis yesterday at 100/1, I would say the true odds are closer to 5/1 given his strong position in the cabinet at the moment. And I can't understand why Johnson is still hanging around as favourite given his ridiculous performance as foreign secretary. The guy is a total clown.

    That is your heart talking not you head. Boris is a massively popular clown, especially with the party in the country, and they are the one's that will be voting for the next leader. He has easily enough support from MPs to get on the ballot.

    But didn't Boris declare to the nation that he wasn't up to being PM when he dipped out in the summer?
    We did not need him to tell us that.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:




    The government will survive only because a credible alternative does not exist. Corbyn Labour is enabling mind-numbing mediocrity. That's good news for May. Very bad news for the country.

    Not sure I totally agree. A competent (in our terms) opposition led by labour moderates would not necessarily have wide electoral appeal. They would be 'more of the same'. Many northern seats broke 70/30 for leave (alan Johnson, ed milliband, etc).
    I think that starmer and Thornberry are doing well on the brexit brief. Admittedly all other areas of policy are pretty much in chaos.
    I'm afraid that the tories have proved themselves incompetent in government over Brexit. It could ruin them if the Brexit moment passes and they dissolve in to dithering. Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/charles-evans-introducing-the-social-conservative-alliance.html

    Are they going to get backers from Business with this ?
    Whats the difference between the anti modern, anti capitalist statist right and Corbyn's international vision of metropolitan socialism?
    Corbyn and Labour have everything to play for. They just need to get their act together.
    British economic policy post 1945 has been a compromise between free Market capitalism land social democracy. May is not going to change that.
    The idea that 'backers from Business' support free markets is one of the most naïve I've read on PB (and that's saying something).
    Plenty of evidence that business is concerned about leaving the single market.
    Of course business can also benefit from protectionism but the vested interests are clearly in protecting the current trading relationships. As per the post brexit lobbying effort focussed on HMT.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Disraeli, Gladstone, Chamberlain, Baldwin, Butler, the list of failures is endless ;)
    I don't recall Gladstone being in the party at all?
    Tory (1828–34)
    Conservative (1834–46)
    Peelite (1846–59)
    Liberal (1859–98)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Apart from 55% wimps in Scotland, the only no-users in the world who would not prefer to run their own affairs.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Top trolling.

    Galloway has appeal - hmmmmmmm
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    How many marginals are in the shires and how many are metropolitan?
    None in either ;) The former are mostly rock solid Tory and the later rock solid Labour.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    nielh said:

    ydoethur said:

    nielh said:


    We'll see. Boris has had it in my view. Admittedly I'm not close to the views of the Tory MP's or the selectorate but I don't think Boris can have a second shot. He's proved that he isn't up to it by chickening out of the leadership, and he's proving as foreign secretary that he can't do a serious job in government. He's well out his depth. We saw him in Warsaw inviting in new generations of Poles and in Ankara promoting Turkey joining the EU post Brexit. The farcical performance at the dispatch box calling for protests outside the Russian embassy was incompetent and foolish. He's lost it. His game plan in the referendum was to position himself for a narrow remain victory. He ended up clinching it for leave and somewhere he desperately doesn't want to be.

    Interesting you mention gove, in my view Gove, Davis and Osborne and Hammond are the contenders for the next Tory leader. they have demonstrated the intellectual aptitude and experience for the task

    Agree re Boris. But surely Hammond and Davis will be too old next time? Davis is 67 and Hammond 61. Assuming May, who is younger than they are, stays any length of time they will be at the stage where they will be seen as past it.

    Not Gove. What he did to teachers in private he has done to Cameron and Johnson in public. The man is a pathological narcissist, backstabber and liar and utterly unfit to hold public office.

    Osborne may be worth a shout especially if things go wrong, and I never thought I'd say that.

    If May is able to in effect nominate her own successor however, there might well be mileage in Karen Bradley, whom she obviously thinks very highly of and would be about the right age and level of experience to take over in 5-6 years time.
    I am not confident that the May govt will weather the next 6 months. Storm clouds gathering from various directions. They will need to find someone sufficiently competent to implement the brexit decision.

    The government will survive only because a credible alternative does not exist. Corbyn Labour is enabling mind-numbing mediocrity. That's good news for May. Very bad news for the country.

    It also means that the Tories are now the party of Brexit and their fortunes are going to be tied to the success or failure of the enterprise. May has nailed her colours to the mast and her previous Remain stance looks about as convincing as Boris Brexit conversion.

    There is a certain hubris attached to the view that the Tories can do anything they like because they face weak opposition. If Brexit turns sour a vehicle will emerge for voters to express their displeasure.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    There is better value on the market for next conservative leader, I backed david davis yesterday at 100/1, I would say the true odds are closer to 5/1 given his strong position in the cabinet at the moment. And I can't understand why Johnson is still hanging around as favourite given his ridiculous performance as foreign secretary. The guy is a total clown.

    That is your heart talking not you head. Boris is a massively popular clown, especially with the party in the country, and they are the one's that will be voting for the next leader. He has easily enough support from MPs to get on the ballot.

    But didn't Boris declare to the nation that he wasn't up to being PM when he dipped out in the summer?
    We did not need him to tell us that.
    :D
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Some pain of course but I would guess there is a limit to price rises. Too much and People obviously stop buying which reduces sales. Additionally those same people find something else probably cheaper and the original company loses a long term purchaser. The retailer may also find that customer. Goes elsewhere so footfall reduces. Both the manufacturer and the retailer are then faced with falling sales, an and inability to retain let alone attract new customer revenue.

    It's a double edged sword with its own tipping point. LIDLs have proven this concept already and continue to do well at this.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Apart from 55% wimps in Scotland, the only no-users in the world who would not prefer to run their own affairs.
    By joining the EU, taking their currency and being told what to do.

    Oh and having your economy destroyed if you upset the Germans.

    Sounds like fun, shame you can't get enough Scots to agree.

    Always said they were a sensible bunch ;-)

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    Jonathan said:

    Terrible bet. I know lots of Corbyn supporters apart from myself. I don't know ANYONE who has a good word to say for George Galloway, because he's seen as an egotistical chancer. I expect there are some, but he's certainly not a potential choice of most left-wing members. As for those who arren't so left-wing, I don't think so!

    Galloway is certainly capable of uniting the party.
    George is no Jezza.
  • Options
    JackW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    If he loses Florida, he needs all the rest.

    Possible, but difficult.
    If Trump loses Florida where does he realistically get to 270 from ?

    Give Trump PA NH NC OH IA and NV only takes him to 260

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/8XbOG
    Clearly Trump must win Fl. As we enter the final straight, Trump's found an extra gear and Hillary's out of puff, so it's looking good for the hard working decent folk's candidate.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
    As one who remembers the early years of Thatcher (as opposed to the fan boy myths) she was a dead woman walking until Galtieri rescued her...."grammar school girl, not up to the top job..."
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    OllyT said:

    .

    There is a certain hubris attached to the view that the Tories can do anything they like because they face weak opposition. If Brexit turns sour a vehicle will emerge for voters to express their displeasure.

    A vehicle may emerge but if that vehicle isn't the Labour Party then FPTP will run it off the road.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027
    O/T, An Islamic prophesy has marked Dabiq, in N Syria, as the site of a final battle between Muslims and infidel Christians in an apocalyptic clash.
    However, today, Turkish-backed rebels ..... presumably Muslim .... have captured the town from Islamic State.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37670998
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    If he loses Florida, he needs all the rest.

    Possible, but difficult.
    If Trump loses Florida where does he realistically get to 270 from ?

    Give Trump PA NH NC OH IA and NV only takes him to 260

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/8XbOG
    Clearly Trump must win Fl. As we enter the final straight, Trump's found an extra gear and Hillary's out of puff, so it's looking good for the hard working decent folk's candidate.
    With Donald implying that Clinton is on drugs perhaps he might offer some of his "extra gear" to keep the contest at a high level ....
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Erm, have you seen the polls lately?

    This current Tory administration would win 30-50 more seats than Cameron's Continuity Coalition manifesto.

    Snag is that the country voted for Cameron's manifesto and May has no mandate to change course
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    George is no Jezza.

    Saucer of milk for you Sir ....
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. T, yes and no. The country also voted to leave the EU.

    King Cole, well, quite.

    Anyway, I must be off.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
    As one who remembers the early years of Thatcher (as opposed to the fan boy myths) she was a dead woman walking until Galtieri rescued her...."grammar school girl, not up to the top job..."
    That isn't my memory at all. It was certainly what her political enemies were saying about her, trying to create the narrative as it were, but the polls were already moving in her favour. I think she would have or at least could well have won in '83 or '84 without the Falklands effect.
  • Options
    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:




    The government will survive only because a credible alternative does not exist. Corbyn Labour is enabling mind-numbing mediocrity. That's good news for May. Very bad news for the country.

    Not sure I totally agree. A competent (in our terms) opposition led by labour moderates would not necessarily have wide electoral appeal. They would be 'more of the same'. Many northern seats broke 70/30 for leave (alan Johnson, ed milliband, etc).
    I think that starmer and Thornberry are doing well on the brexit brief. Admittedly all other areas of policy are pretty much in chaos.
    I'm afraid that the tories have proved themselves incompetent in government over Brexit. It could ruin them if the Brexit moment passes and they dissolve in to dithering. Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/charles-evans-introducing-the-social-conservative-alliance.html

    Are they going to get backers from Business with this ?
    Whats the difference between the anti modern, anti capitalist statist right and Corbyn's international vision of metropolitan socialism?
    Corbyn and Labour have everything to play for. They just need to get their act together.
    British economic policy post 1945 has been a compromise between free Market capitalism land social democracy. May is not going to change that.
    The idea that 'backers from Business' support free markets is one of the most naïve I've read on PB (and that's saying something).
    Plenty of evidence that business is concerned about leaving the single market.
    Of course business can also benefit from protectionism but the vested interests are clearly in protecting the current trading relationships. As per the post brexit lobbying effort focussed on HMT.
    With respect there's more to the country that confused ToryBoys and fatcat businessmen.

    Actually there's more to the Conservative party that confused ToryBoys and fatcat businessmen.

    You're focusing too much of the metropolitan world.

    Take a look at JCB as an example of the middle England alternative - Conservative donor, pro Brexit and a successful business in an area which has swung rightwards.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited October 2016
    john_zims said:

    @Paul_Bedfordshire

    'Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637'


    A pity nobody at Sky bothered to listen to David Davis who already confirmed in the HoC that overseas workers would continue to be allowed (on short term visas) to work in the UK at harvest time, just as they did before we joined the EU.

    Journalists listening to what politicians say appears to be out of fashion. We've also seen this recently with foreign workers, grammar schools and Boris taking the piss out of the Stop The West Coalition. And probably others I could think of.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited October 2016
    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203

    Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637

    No its just the reality of the situation.
    Remainers look down on the British working classes as lazy while hoping they will rise up and topple May in favour of Osborne Miliband and Clegg if their beer goes up 5%.

    What a lala land those within the m25 and similar metropolitan liberal ghettos in places like Cambridge and Manchester live in.
    And there was I thinking it was the Tories who spent most of the last Parliament decrying the British Working Classes as lazy - I think 'shirkers' was the favoured term. Now they're your new bessies!!

    I'm looking forward to seeing how you will improve their lot.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027

    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
    As one who remembers the early years of Thatcher (as opposed to the fan boy myths) she was a dead woman walking until Galtieri rescued her...."grammar school girl, not up to the top job..."
    That isn't my memory at all. It was certainly what her political enemies were saying about her, trying to create the narrative as it were, but the polls were already moving in her favour. I think she would have or at least could well have won in '83 or '84 without the Falklands effect.
    Not my memory either, as a political opponent. She wasn’t doing well in 1981 at all, and the Press were fawning round the Gang of Four. However, there was, as you say, some improvment in 1983. My recollection is that, as a Liberal, a realistic expectation was a hung parliament.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    Two days rain; farmers complain of possible floods. Two days sun; farmers complain of drought.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    JackW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    If he loses Florida, he needs all the rest.

    Possible, but difficult.
    If Trump loses Florida where does he realistically get to 270 from ?

    Give Trump PA NH NC OH IA and NV only takes him to 260

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/8XbOG
    No chance, the states are too highly correlated (And FL too relatively easy) for Trump to get say PA and CO without FL.
  • Options

    Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637

    No its just the reality of the situation.
    Remainers look down on the British working classes as lazy while hoping they will rise up and topple May in favour of Osborne Miliband and Clegg if their beer goes up 5%.

    What a lala land those within the m25 and similar metropolitan liberal ghettos in places like Cambridge and Manchester live in.
    And there was I thinking it was the Tories who spent most of the last Parliament decrying the British Working Classes as lazy - I think 'shirkers' was the favoured term. Now they're your new bessies!!

    I'm looking forward to seeing how you will improve their lot.
    I rather thought they referred to the underclass as shirkers.

    The working class by definition work.

    If you're not aware of the difference between the working class and the underclass ask a member of the working class to explain it to you. If you ever meet one that is.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    JackW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    If he loses Florida, he needs all the rest.

    Possible, but difficult.
    If Trump loses Florida where does he realistically get to 270 from ?

    Give Trump PA NH NC OH IA and NV only takes him to 260

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/8XbOG
    Clearly Trump must win Fl. As we enter the final straight, Trump's found an extra gear and Hillary's out of puff, so it's looking good for the hard working decent folk's candidate.

    FL - Florida OCT. 11-13 Gravis Marketing Clinton +4
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    OllyT said:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Erm, have you seen the polls lately?

    This current Tory administration would win 30-50 more seats than Cameron's Continuity Coalition manifesto.

    Snag is that the country voted for Cameron's manifesto and May has no mandate to change course
    Well that never ever stopped Brown. Yes you can have a referendum, oh it's not needed, don't worry Lisbon is just "a tidying up exercise". One of the biggest cons perpetrated on the British public in modern history. If anyone did not have a mandate to do what he did it was Gordon Brown, Labour Party.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:




    The government will survive only because a credible alternative does not exist. Corbyn Labour is enabling mind-numbing mediocrity. That's good news for May. Very bad news for the country.

    Not sure I totally agree. A competent (in our terms) opposition led by labour moderates would not necessarily have wide electoral appeal. They would be 'more of the same'. Many northern seats broke 70/30 for leave (alan Johnson, ed milliband, etc).
    I think that starmer and Thornberry are doing well on the brexit brief. Admittedly all other areas of policy are pretty much in chaos.
    I'm afraid that the tories have proved themselves incompetent in government over Brexit. It could ruin them if the Brexit moment passes and they dissolve in to dithering. Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/10/charles-evans-introducing-the-social-conservative-alliance.html

    Are they going to get backers from Business with this ?
    Whats the difference between the anti modern, anti capitalist statist right and Corbyn's international vision of metropolitan socialism?
    Corbyn and Labour have everything to play for. They just need to get their act together.
    British economic policy post 1945 has been a compromise between free Market capitalism land social democracy. May is not going to change that.
    The idea that 'backers from Business' support free markets is one of the most naïve I've read on PB (and that's saying something).
    Plenty of evidence that business is concerned about leaving the single market.
    Of course business can also benefit from protectionism but the vested interests are clearly in protecting the current trading relationships. As per the post brexit lobbying effort focussed on HMT.
    With respect there's more to the country that confused ToryBoys and fatcat businessmen.

    Actually there's more to the Conservative party that confused ToryBoys and fatcat businessmen.

    You're focusing too much of the metropolitan world.

    Take a look at JCB as an example of the middle England alternative - Conservative donor, pro Brexit and a successful business in an area which has swung rightwards.
    JCB have also just left the CBI in protest at their EU pro stance.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Trump in Ohio seems a reasonable value bet.

    3/1 at William Hill.


    Yep, I have that at 30% & 33% (two models, no idea which will work better).
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    :lol: that student is going to go far.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    On the CAP reform - Blair gave up the rebate for a promise "to discuss CAP reform". When he tried to collect, Chirac slapped him down - it got very personal between the him and Blair. They actually exchanged insults and Chirac made comments about Blairs family...

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=UKDJmta97ZgC&pg=PT122&lpg=PT122&dq=chirac+you+are+very+badly+brought+up&source=bl&ots=84ZwhOg9og&sig=9F4oTdlazrX3MofrQLFnV_33gwE&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjb_tTDid_PAhXpIsAKHWhECgMQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=chirac you are very badly brought up&f=false


    No French government will allow a reform of the CAP. It is a nearly religious belief in rural France that the CAP protects the small farmers from the evils of AngloSaxon industrial farming. This connects to agrarian romanticism among the urban middle classes - "give up the CAP and the baguette will be history!!" stuff. Not quite NHS levels of worship, but a live rail in French politics that no-one is interested in touching....
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
    As one who remembers the early years of Thatcher (as opposed to the fan boy myths) she was a dead woman walking until Galtieri rescued her...."grammar school girl, not up to the top job..."
    Not quite the way I remember it. The Howe budget of 1981 (I think) was the key. It broke the consensus on economic policy that operated throughout the 60s and 70s applying monetarism instead of the mock Keynes we were used to. Many people thought she wrong, even foolish. But I don't think many thought it was a case of not being up to it.
  • Options
    TSE should form his own party: the, er, TSE Party - TINOs Seeking Election Party :lol:

    *runs and hides*
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    Two days rain; farmers complain of possible floods. Two days sun; farmers complain of drought.
    Many a true word spoken in jest, Mr. Cole. I remember having a conversation with a local farmer and him complaining how there was no money in farming these days and how could he make ends meet etc.etc.. We were standing next to his brand new Range Rover.

    That said, I think some farmers, particularly those in the Hills, have some very big problems with pricing, animal welfare regulations being much laxer in other countries, and food labelling rules. The last two were major factors in making at least three farmer chums of mine vote to leave the EU.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    JackW said:


    If Trump loses Florida where does he realistically get to 270 from ?

    Give Trump PA NH NC OH IA and NV only takes him to 260

    Yeah, it's a real stretch. His supporters back in primary season were talking about possible appeal in Wisconsin/Minnesota/Michigan that might have given him another route, but it never emerged.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Moses_ said:

    OllyT said:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    Erm, have you seen the polls lately?

    This current Tory administration would win 30-50 more seats than Cameron's Continuity Coalition manifesto.

    Snag is that the country voted for Cameron's manifesto and May has no mandate to change course
    Well that never ever stopped Brown. Yes you can have a referendum, oh it's not needed, don't worry Lisbon is just "a tidying up exercise". One of the biggest cons perpetrated on the British public in modern history. If anyone did not have a mandate to do what he did it was Gordon Brown, Labour Party.
    That does not make it right
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504

    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
    As one who remembers the early years of Thatcher (as opposed to the fan boy myths) she was a dead woman walking until Galtieri rescued her...."grammar school girl, not up to the top job..."
    That isn't my memory at all. It was certainly what her political enemies were saying about her, trying to create the narrative as it were, but the polls were already moving in her favour. I think she would have or at least could well have won in '83 or '84 without the Falklands effect.
    Not my memory either, as a political opponent. She wasn’t doing well in 1981 at all, and the Press were fawning round the Gang of Four. However, there was, as you say, some improvment in 1983. My recollection is that, as a Liberal, a realistic expectation was a hung parliament.
    It's an old myth that the Falklands saved Thatcher (ask OGH) - it overlooks the fact that the Labour party was standing on a platform described "as the longest suicide note in history". The realistic projections were that without the Falklands effect, the Conservatives would have maybe got 20 fewer seats.

    The hung parliament idea was the hoped for outcome for the SDP/Liberals - they got some nice spikes in the polls, but ultimately not the depth of political backing to make a breakthrough.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    Two days rain; farmers complain of possible floods. Two days sun; farmers complain of drought.
    Many a true word spoken in jest, Mr. Cole. I remember having a conversation with a local farmer and him complaining how there was no money in farming these days and how could he make ends meet etc.etc.. We were standing next to his brand new Range Rover.

    That said, I think some farmers, particularly those in the Hills, have some very big problems with pricing, animal welfare regulations being much laxer in other countries, and food labelling rules. The last two were major factors in making at least three farmer chums of mine vote to leave the EU.
    Agree about hill farming. Dairy’s not doing well, either.
    Suspect though that food labelling requirments aren’t going to change outside the EU!
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    nielh said:




    fter the Blair/Brown years few if any Labour members want it to be a party of government ever again. Japan coped as a representative democracy for two generations with only one governmental Party - we can do likewise, particularly while the UK is collapsing.

    Labour have a major problem with its membership. Stupid, stupid system. totally fake democracy. Anyone pays £4.66 per month or and decides the policy. What an utterly shambolic and dysfunctional system. Same weight applied to views of activists, doorknockers, councillors to deluded RT watching clicktivists who never went to a single meeting. Big problem.

    The numbers of the membership mean nothing. 10% of the electorate identify as 'left wing'. so the membership can increase to 2 million, makes no difference to anything.

    Labour sorting itself out means the unions kicking Corbyn in the balls* and sorting out the joke of party democracy. There is of course a role for more involvement of members but there also has to be strategic leadership and direction.

    ( *metaphorically)
    What you say applies equally to democracy in general - it provides exactly the same say to a drunken layabout as a Nobel prizewinner. You favour some sort of weighting according to level of activity?

    That said, I have never met a grassroots member of any party who actually felt (s)he had a meaningful impact on policy, any more than an average voter is really deciding the Government.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Apart from 55% wimps in Scotland, the only no-users in the world who would not prefer to run their own affairs.
    Easy now.
    I'm only pointing out the obvious, you need to start brexit now because your mandate is wafer thin
    In t may you have a remain placeholder in govt who is dithering and coming under massive pressure
    More time goes by, greater probability opposition rises and mandate collapses. Govt fall and brexit negated

  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    Two days rain; farmers complain of possible floods. Two days sun; farmers complain of drought.
    Many a true word spoken in jest, Mr. Cole. I remember having a conversation with a local farmer and him complaining how there was no money in farming these days and how could he make ends meet etc.etc.. We were standing next to his brand new Range Rover.

    That said, I think some farmers, particularly those in the Hills, have some very big problems with pricing, animal welfare regulations being much laxer in other countries, and food labelling rules. The last two were major factors in making at least three farmer chums of mine vote to leave the EU.
    Agree about hill farming. Dairy’s not doing well, either.
    Suspect though that food labelling requirments aren’t going to change outside the EU!
    The requirements may not change, but they could be changed if HMG so wished. What the farmers I know want is proper labelling of the origin of the product and in the case of meat the method of slaughter. Nothing malign, nothing designed to confuse or mislead the consumer, in fact the reverse.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Reminds me of a conversation with a South African, I worked with years ago. He's been a long term opponent of Apartheid... he described voting for the change as "voting myself out of a job, but for the right thing". He also said he was in favour of the sanctions despite the number of people killed and impoverished by them - because the black population (who bore the brunt of the worst suffering caused by the sanctions) were in favour of them - and *after* that, because they bought the change forward.

    The funny bit was the progressive types in the group thought he was being "racist" - for suggesting that sanctions caused suffering (this was long before sanctions on Iraq became a bete noir (!!) of the left) and suggesting that there were less job opportunities in the new South Africa.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027

    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
    As one who remembers the early years of Thatcher (as opposed to the fan boy myths) she was a dead woman walking until Galtieri rescued her...."grammar school girl, not up to the top job..."
    That isn't my memory at all. It was certainly what her political enemies were saying about her, trying to create the narrative as it were, but the polls were already moving in her favour. I think she would have or at least could well have won in '83 or '84 without the Falklands effect.
    Not my memory either, as a political opponent. She wasn’t doing well in 1981 at all, and the Press were fawning round the Gang of Four. However, there was, as you say, some improvment in 1983. My recollection is that, as a Liberal, a realistic expectation was a hung parliament.
    It's an old myth that the Falklands saved Thatcher (ask OGH) - it overlooks the fact that the Labour party was standing on a platform described "as the longest suicide note in history". The realistic projections were that without the Falklands effect, the Conservatives would have maybe got 20 fewer seats.

    The hung parliament idea was the hoped for outcome for the SDP/Liberals - they got some nice spikes in the polls, but ultimately not the depth of political backing to make a breakthrough.
    20 fewer would have left a tiny Tory majority; 25 would have meant them the largest party but without a majority.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    nielh said:

    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Apart from 55% wimps in Scotland, the only no-users in the world who would not prefer to run their own affairs.
    Easy now.
    I'm only pointing out the obvious, you need to start brexit now because your mandate is wafer thin
    In t may you have a remain placeholder in govt who is dithering and coming under massive pressure
    More time goes by, greater probability opposition rises and mandate collapses. Govt fall and brexit negated

    UK will ponce about till they get an excuse to not do it. Th etories will do all they can to delay and try to make sure we stay in, whilst lying in public.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    Two days rain; farmers complain of possible floods. Two days sun; farmers complain of drought.
    Many a true word spoken in jest, Mr. Cole. I remember having a conversation with a local farmer and him complaining how there was no money in farming these days and how could he make ends meet etc.etc.. We were standing next to his brand new Range Rover.

    That said, I think some farmers, particularly those in the Hills, have some very big problems with pricing, animal welfare regulations being much laxer in other countries, and food labelling rules. The last two were major factors in making at least three farmer chums of mine vote to leave the EU.
    Agree about hill farming. Dairy’s not doing well, either.
    Suspect though that food labelling requirments aren’t going to change outside the EU!
    The requirements may not change, but they could be changed if HMG so wished. What the farmers I know want is proper labelling of the origin of the product and in the case of meat the method of slaughter. Nothing malign, nothing designed to confuse or mislead the consumer, in fact the reverse.
    They will be too scared to upset multi - culturism to ever do that
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    Two days rain; farmers complain of possible floods. Two days sun; farmers complain of drought.
    Many a true word spoken in jest, Mr. Cole. I remember having a conversation with a local farmer and him complaining how there was no money in farming these days and how could he make ends meet etc.etc.. We were standing next to his brand new Range Rover.

    That said, I think some farmers, particularly those in the Hills, have some very big problems with pricing, animal welfare regulations being much laxer in other countries, and food labelling rules. The last two were major factors in making at least three farmer chums of mine vote to leave the EU.
    Agree about hill farming. Dairy’s not doing well, either.
    Suspect though that food labelling requirments aren’t going to change outside the EU!
    The requirements may not change, but they could be changed if HMG so wished. What the farmers I know want is proper labelling of the origin of the product and in the case of meat the method of slaughter. Nothing malign, nothing designed to confuse or mislead the consumer, in fact the reverse.
    “Method of slaughter” opens (ahem) a can of worms does it not? And I thought that EU had given protection to such products as Stilton cheese.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.

    Some felt sympathy others just amusement. I met no one who thought or even considered it would impact on them at all.

    The perspective from outside of the UK is always interesting. We are not seen as the big beasts we think we are. As the currency began its inexorable decline-much commented on the TV channels- the shrugs just got more pronounced. I have never before felt other than a citizen of Europe on an equal footing with everyone else.

    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    nielh said:




    fter the Blair/Brown years few if any Labour members want it to be a party of government ever again. Japan coped as a representative democracy for two generations with only one governmental Party - we can do likewise, particularly while the UK is collapsing.

    Labour have a major problem with its membership. Stupid, stupid system. totally fake democracy. Anyone pays £4.66 per month or and decides the policy. What an utterly shambolic and dysfunctional system. Same weight applied to views of activists, doorknockers, councillors to deluded RT watching clicktivists who never went to a single meeting. Big problem.

    The numbers of the membership mean nothing. 10% of the electorate identify as 'left wing'. so the membership can increase to 2 million, makes no difference to anything.

    Labour sorting itself out means the unions kicking Corbyn in the balls* and sorting out the joke of party democracy. There is of course a role for more involvement of members but there also has to be strategic leadership and direction.

    ( *metaphorically)
    What you say applies equally to democracy in general - it provides exactly the same say to a drunken layabout as a Nobel prizewinner. You favour some sort of weighting according to level of activity?

    That said, I have never met a grassroots member of any party who actually felt (s)he had a meaningful impact on policy, any more than an average voter is really deciding the Government.

    Party democracy is a different concept to democracy at large. The analogy doesn't apply.
    Yes, I would favour weighting based on activity over allowing open elections one member one vote.
    The labour part is consumed by left wing activists using it as a platform for views and policies they like. Spending hours discussing left wing hobby horses rather than developing policies that will lead them back to power and working on issues of local importance.
    I'm not totally critical of party democracy or calling for a resurrection of the stage managed Blair years but I can see that currently the situation is a mess and this is becoming clear at least to some Corbyn supporters.

  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Roger said:

    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.

    And that kind of attitude from the continent is why we voted to Leave.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Apart from 55% wimps in Scotland, the only no-users in the world who would not prefer to run their own affairs.
    It's worse than that Malcolm, 62% of Scots voted Remain in the EU referendum.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    More bad news for the bad losers...

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/787594860962406400
  • Options

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    I believe a majority of Scottish farmers voted Leave. They're currently petitioning to have farm payments paid in Euros due to the exchange rate.

    Much hollow laughter.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027
    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Apart from 55% wimps in Scotland, the only no-users in the world who would not prefer to run their own affairs.
    It's worse than that Malcolm, 62% of Scots voted Remain in the EU referendum.
    LOL,
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    Picked up several gears after May-geddon
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    I suspect it would be the associated 365 days of hard work, about which the farmer didn't moan, that would cause the student to hesitate...
  • Options

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    It's the zeitgeist.

    https://twitter.com/prasejeebus/status/787427872474484736
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Reminds me of a conversation with a South African, I worked with years ago. He's been a long term opponent of Apartheid... he described voting for the change as "voting myself out of a job, but for the right thing". He also said he was in favour of the sanctions despite the number of people killed and impoverished by them - because the black population (who bore the brunt of the worst suffering caused by the sanctions) were in favour of them - and *after* that, because they bought the change forward.

    The funny bit was the progressive types in the group thought he was being "racist" - for suggesting that sanctions caused suffering (this was long before sanctions on Iraq became a bete noir (!!) of the left) and suggesting that there were less job opportunities in the new South Africa.
    This decision is incomparable with apartheid, nor colnialism. Totally different magnitude.
  • Options
    Moses_ said:

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
    What especially significant event took place in 1969?
  • Options
    Roger said:

    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.

    Some felt sympathy others just amusement. I met no one who thought or even considered it would impact on them at all.

    The perspective from outside of the UK is always interesting. We are not seen as the big beasts we think we are. As the currency began its inexorable decline-much commented on the TV channels- the shrugs just got more pronounced. I have never before felt other than a citizen of Europe on an equal footing with everyone else.

    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    You should widen your continental social circle beyond hardcore fuddy duddies. It's too narrow.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    Off-topic:

    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243

    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
    What especially significant event took place in 1969?
    Man on the moon. :wink:
  • Options

    Moses_ said:

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
    What especially significant event took place in 1969?
    Moon landings?
  • Options

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    I believe a majority of Scottish farmers voted Leave. They're currently petitioning to have farm payments paid in Euros due to the exchange rate.

    Much hollow laughter.
    Euro : Pound rate is an interesting area of speculation. Over the past 10 years the average rate for Euros is circa 1.2 to the £. We are now 1.1 a drop of 8% on the average. At present the markets are speculating on a guesstimate that the UK economy will suffer more than the Euro from a hard Brexit. But what if Jamie Dimon was right (for once) and the Euro declined?
  • Options

    Off-topic:
    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243
    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.

    Surely that is beyond stupid?
This discussion has been closed.