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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 100/1 tip to win the 2020 London Mayoral election

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  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
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    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
    What especially significant event took place in 1969?
    Man on the moon. :wink:
    What, reactionary moaners only started moaning in 1969? I find that hard to believe.

    Mind you, last moon landing in 1972, same year as the European Communities Act. Significant.



  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    Sky news informing us that Brexit means the end of British grown vegetables because Britons are too lazy to harvest them if the hardworking osteuropeans go.

    Isnt that, er racist?

    http://news.sky.com/story/fresh-british-veg-could-be-wiped-out-by-brexit-10619637

    No its just the reality of the situation.
    Remainers look down on the British working classes as lazy while hoping they will rise up and topple May in favour of Osborne Miliband and Clegg if their beer goes up 5%.

    What a lala land those within the m25 and similar metropolitan liberal ghettos in places like Cambridge and Manchester live in.
    And there was I thinking it was the Tories who spent most of the last Parliament decrying the British Working Classes as lazy - I think 'shirkers' was the favoured term. Now they're your new bessies!!

    I'm looking forward to seeing how you will improve their lot.
    Since they embraced Brexit the "feckless" and the "shirkers" have suddenly been endowed with the wisdom of Solomon in right-wing circles.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    Well, for those who think that my suggestion in my thread header on Friday (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/14/cyclefree-with-a-mischievous-suggestion/) was away with the fairies, they might like to read Philip Aldrick's column in yesterday's Times.

    Apparently a paper has been written by Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the German Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Jean Pisani-Ferry, head of a think tank reporting to the French PM and Sir Paul Tucker, former deputy-governor of the BoE. The European think tank, Breugel, has also contributed.

    They start from the position that it is possible for Britain to remain part of the single market and regain sovereignty over its borders (though there will be costs for Britain, obviously) and they state that "free movement of workers is not indispensable for the smooth functioning of economic integration". The assumptions behind the paper is that both Britain and the rest of the EU have much to lose from Brexit and their suggestion is that there should be an inner core of EU states and "an outer circle of countries involved in a structured intergovernmental partnership".

    Worth reading the whole column.

    But, ahem, some of us with less illustrious bona fides, are feeling quite vainglorious this morning.

    *Buffs nails and awaits garlands of flowers*
  • Options
    Roger said:

    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.
    .............

    Interesting that you sense no sign of a need for the EU to address the growing pressures and change itself to deal with them.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    It's funny, we all see what we want to see.

    Some people see a bunch of establishment types, mp's and big businesses trying to ignore the wishes of the people.

    You pays your money you takes your choice......
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    True but I'm in the "give-them-enough-rope" camp! How long before the nearly 60% of Leavers who believe they are going to be better off after Brexit in that Yougov survey wake up to the awful truth.?
  • Options
    This morning's focus on the Home Affairs Committee report into anti-semitism rightly focuses on Labour but as Guido points out.... "There is also strong condemnation of Tim Farron and the Liberal Democrats’ dire response to anti-Semitism, following Guido’s stories on former MP and current LibDem councillor David Ward: “We were disappointed by the manner in which their Leader, Tim Farron, referred to disciplinary processes rather than explicitly condemning antisemitic remarks made by members of his Party, and we were surprised to learn that Cllr David Ward remains an elected representative of the Liberal Democrats, despite his repeated antisemitic comments… He denied that Cllr Ward was a “repeat offender” and said that it was “very tricky” to judge whether an individual has been antisemitic or “just provocative and offensive”.”
    http://order-order.com/2016/10/16/corbyn-condemned-home-affairs-committee-anti-semitism/
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    Roger said:

    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.
    .............

    Interesting that you sense no sign of a need for the EU to address the growing pressures and change itself to deal with them.
    Exactly. The view of the future of Europe and its nations is completely different in England & Wales than in most European countries (Switzerland, Norway, etc excluded of course). Which is why we cannot be in political union.

    In time the settlement of Britain not being part of a United States of Europe will be accepted and acknowledged as being "probably for the best" by both USE and British citizens.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
    What especially significant event took place in 1969?
    Man on the moon. :wink:
    What, reactionary moaners only started moaning in 1969? I find that hard to believe.

    Mind you, last moon landing in 1972, same year as the European Communities Act. Significant.



    Or this....
    http://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/benelux_stamp_1969-en-61f59608-20bb-423c-b907-6313735ca535.html
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, for those who think that my suggestion in my thread header on Friday (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/14/cyclefree-with-a-mischievous-suggestion/) was away with the fairies, they might like to read Philip Aldrick's column in yesterday's Times.

    Apparently a paper has been written by Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the German Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Jean Pisani-Ferry, head of a think tank reporting to the French PM and Sir Paul Tucker, former deputy-governor of the BoE. The European think tank, Breugel, has also contributed.

    They start from the position that it is possible for Britain to remain part of the single market and regain sovereignty over its borders (though there will be costs for Britain, obviously) and they state that "free movement of workers is not indispensable for the smooth functioning of economic integration". The assumptions behind the paper is that both Britain and the rest of the EU have much to lose from Brexit and their suggestion is that there should be an inner core of EU states and "an outer circle of countries involved in a structured intergovernmental partnership".

    Worth reading the whole column.

    But, ahem, some of us with less illustrious bona fides, are feeling quite vainglorious this morning.

    *Buffs nails and awaits garlands of flowers*

    You may well feel pleased with yourself, Mrs. Free, and are undoubtedly deserving of garland of flowers to say nothing of a few beautiful yellow roses. However, the paper to which you refer seems nothing more than an extension of Cameron's ideas of a few years ago, is much too late and will probably be ignored by those running the EU whose minds are apparently of concrete - all mixed up and permanently set.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    Off-topic:
    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243
    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.

    Surely that is beyond stupid?
    Possibly. AIUI there are three threats to the line: 1) the sea undermining it again, leading to long closures; 2) high tides and spray closing the line, which is happening fairly often; and 3) rock falls from the cliffs, which again are happening fairly often.

    Network Rail have had a lot of weather-related line closures recently, and in two of the biggest: at Dover and at Eden's Brow on the Settle and Carlisle, they have (and are) fixing the problems with covered viaducts: basically build a bridge over the affected area and then cover it up again. The ground (or sea) can move underneath and the track will remain supported.

    They therefore know the tech really well.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMeoiRCWYs

    A major issue might be the effect on the locals and the tourist economy. They like their beach and sea view. But I haven't read NR's proposal, and they may have factored that in.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027

    This morning's focus on the Home Affairs Committee report into anti-semitism rightly focuses on Labour but as Guido points out.... "There is also strong condemnation of Tim Farron and the Liberal Democrats’ dire response to anti-Semitism, following Guido’s stories on former MP and current LibDem councillor David Ward: “We were disappointed by the manner in which their Leader, Tim Farron, referred to disciplinary processes rather than explicitly condemning antisemitic remarks made by members of his Party, and we were surprised to learn that Cllr David Ward remains an elected representative of the Liberal Democrats, despite his repeated antisemitic comments… He denied that Cllr Ward was a “repeat offender” and said that it was “very tricky” to judge whether an individual has been antisemitic or “just provocative and offensive”.”
    http://order-order.com/2016/10/16/corbyn-condemned-home-affairs-committee-anti-semitism/

    At the risk of being flamed, it seems to me that David Ward’s comments, while sometimes not the most tactfully phrased, appear to be ciritcal of the policies and practices of successive Israeli governments, rather than antisemitic as presently understood.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, for those who think that my suggestion in my thread header on Friday (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/14/cyclefree-with-a-mischievous-suggestion/) was away with the fairies, they might like to read Philip Aldrick's column in yesterday's Times.

    Apparently a paper has been written by Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the German Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Jean Pisani-Ferry, head of a think tank reporting to the French PM and Sir Paul Tucker, former deputy-governor of the BoE. The European think tank, Breugel, has also contributed.

    They start from the position that it is possible for Britain to remain part of the single market and regain sovereignty over its borders (though there will be costs for Britain, obviously) and they state that "free movement of workers is not indispensable for the smooth functioning of economic integration". The assumptions behind the paper is that both Britain and the rest of the EU have much to lose from Brexit and their suggestion is that there should be an inner core of EU states and "an outer circle of countries involved in a structured intergovernmental partnership".

    Worth reading the whole column.

    But, ahem, some of us with less illustrious bona fides, are feeling quite vainglorious this morning.

    *Buffs nails and awaits garlands of flowers*

    The idea was put forward in an LSE blog in August
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/08/29/europe-after-brexit-a-proposal-for-a-new-continental-partnership/
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    OllyT said:

    How long before the nearly 60% of Leavers who believe they are going to be better off after Brexit in that Yougov survey wake up to the awful truth.?

    Not to mention the other 29% who didn't think it would make any difference ...
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, for those who think that my suggestion in my thread header on Friday (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/14/cyclefree-with-a-mischievous-suggestion/) was away with the fairies, they might like to read Philip Aldrick's column in yesterday's Times.

    Apparently a paper has been written by Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the German Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Jean Pisani-Ferry, head of a think tank reporting to the French PM and Sir Paul Tucker, former deputy-governor of the BoE. The European think tank, Breugel, has also contributed.

    They start from the position that it is possible for Britain to remain part of the single market and regain sovereignty over its borders (though there will be costs for Britain, obviously) and they state that "free movement of workers is not indispensable for the smooth functioning of economic integration". The assumptions behind the paper is that both Britain and the rest of the EU have much to lose from Brexit and their suggestion is that there should be an inner core of EU states and "an outer circle of countries involved in a structured intergovernmental partnership".

    Worth reading the whole column.

    But, ahem, some of us with less illustrious bona fides, are feeling quite vainglorious this morning.

    *Buffs nails and awaits garlands of flowers*

    You may well feel pleased with yourself, Mrs. Free, and are undoubtedly deserving of garland of flowers to say nothing of a few beautiful yellow roses. However, the paper to which you refer seems nothing more than an extension of Cameron's ideas of a few years ago, is much too late and will probably be ignored by those running the EU whose minds are apparently of concrete - all mixed up and permanently set.
    That may well be so. I think the chances of something like being adopted are low, as does the columnist. One would like to think that behind the scenes some hard thinking rather than the posturing that gets reported is going on. Small acorns and all that.

    Nonetheless, I am glad to see that I am not alone in my thinking. A bit of boasting is occasionally allowed, especially after the rather gruesome few weeks I have been having at work.......

    And now I shall tend to my own beautiful yellow roses.

  • Options
    Well I never....

    The father of the Jungle boy who made Lily Allen cry is an ex-Islamist fighter who sneaked into Britain in a lorry, claimed asylum from the 'terror' of Afghanistan - and then went back there on holiday

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3840098/Calais-Jungle-boy-silly-Lily-cry-father-ex-Islamist-fighter.html
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Via 538 - Some selected swing state polling from the IPSOS/Reuters data dump. All samples 850+ and 7-13 Oct.

    AZ - Clinton 39 .. Trump 45
    NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

    Factor in some shy Trump supporters and it still looks a contest....
    They certainly seem shy in early voting and the ABC poll show a sharp decline in enthusiasm for the Donald.

    FOP is the key .... 1,782 mention .. :smile:
    The election project Twitter had an interesting stat about absentee ballot requests. Female ballot requests in NC surged after the first debate.
    And Georgia as well both ballot REQUESTS were 60% female.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Is Oct 16th the new April 1st? If GG wins the mayoralty in 2020, the drinks are on me.
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    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    How many marginals are in the shires and how many are metropolitan?
    None in either ;) The former are mostly rock solid Tory and the later rock solid Labour.
    Most marginals are suburban but there's a fair few metropolitan ones. More than enough to swing the majority.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Off-topic:
    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243
    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.

    Surely that is beyond stupid?
    Possibly. AIUI there are three threats to the line: 1) the sea undermining it again, leading to long closures; 2) high tides and spray closing the line, which is happening fairly often; and 3) rock falls from the cliffs, which again are happening fairly often.

    Network Rail have had a lot of weather-related line closures recently, and in two of the biggest: at Dover and at Eden's Brow on the Settle and Carlisle, they have (and are) fixing the problems with covered viaducts: basically build a bridge over the affected area and then cover it up again. The ground (or sea) can move underneath and the track will remain supported.

    They therefore know the tech really well.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMeoiRCWYs

    A major issue might be the effect on the locals and the tourist economy. They like their beach and sea view. But I haven't read NR's proposal, and they may have factored that in.
    A cost of £500m, Mr. J? Writing a business case for that would be a bit tricky I should have thought. How many people actually use the line? What are the alternative routes? What would be the costs of continuing with the current, imperfect, arrangements? Those are all questions that would have to be answered and on the face of it I suspect it would be difficult to justify the expenditure of such a vast sum of taxpayers' money.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220

    This morning's focus on the Home Affairs Committee report into anti-semitism rightly focuses on Labour but as Guido points out.... "There is also strong condemnation of Tim Farron and the Liberal Democrats’ dire response to anti-Semitism, following Guido’s stories on former MP and current LibDem councillor David Ward: “We were disappointed by the manner in which their Leader, Tim Farron, referred to disciplinary processes rather than explicitly condemning antisemitic remarks made by members of his Party, and we were surprised to learn that Cllr David Ward remains an elected representative of the Liberal Democrats, despite his repeated antisemitic comments… He denied that Cllr Ward was a “repeat offender” and said that it was “very tricky” to judge whether an individual has been antisemitic or “just provocative and offensive”.”
    http://order-order.com/2016/10/16/corbyn-condemned-home-affairs-committee-anti-semitism/

    The report on the Labour party and its leader is rightly excoriating.

    One wonders at what point people will realise that the repeated claims that Corbyn himself is a nice gentle man with no interest in political/personal abuse and not an anti-semite himself are, in light of the evidence, beginning to ring rather hollow. The fish rots from the head.

    A once great party has descended into the gutter and the damage its embrace of anti-semitic tropes, anti-semitic and other vilely illiberal groups has done more damage to it and to British politics in the long-term than many of the other less serious things which take up so much of our attention.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    George Galloway, the cat in the hat.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Oh dear. If you're a politician, either embrace or ignore comedians. Don't rise to their bait, because they're always better than you at getting laughs at your expense.

    I wonder what the SNL team thought of him, when Trump hosted their show last year?
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    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
    40% with Comres last night.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919

    Well I never....

    The father of the Jungle boy who made Lily Allen cry is an ex-Islamist fighter who sneaked into Britain in a lorry, claimed asylum from the 'terror' of Afghanistan - and then went back there on holiday

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3840098/Calais-Jungle-boy-silly-Lily-cry-father-ex-Islamist-fighter.html

    Maybe Lily Allen should do an Yvette and offer to put them up in her own large house, with her own kids.

    That would make me Smile...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    No where near as entertaining as the real thing....
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135

    O/T, An Islamic prophesy has marked Dabiq, in N Syria, as the site of a final battle between Muslims and infidel Christians in an apocalyptic clash.
    However, today, Turkish-backed rebels ..... presumably Muslim .... have captured the town from Islamic State.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37670998

    It's all a bit worrying. Looking at the signs of the end, as outlined authoritatively by Wikipedia, most of them already seem to have come to pass:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_eschatology

    But thankfully we are still waiting for number 45 - "The leader of a people is the worst of them". Not much chance of that happening...
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    Off-topic:
    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243
    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.

    Surely that is beyond stupid?
    Possibly. AIUI there are three threats to the line: 1) the sea undermining it again, leading to long closures; 2) high tides and spray closing the line, which is happening fairly often; and 3) rock falls from the cliffs, which again are happening fairly often.

    Network Rail have had a lot of weather-related line closures recently, and in two of the biggest: at Dover and at Eden's Brow on the Settle and Carlisle, they have (and are) fixing the problems with covered viaducts: basically build a bridge over the affected area and then cover it up again. The ground (or sea) can move underneath and the track will remain supported.

    They therefore know the tech really well.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMeoiRCWYs

    A major issue might be the effect on the locals and the tourist economy. They like their beach and sea view. But I haven't read NR's proposal, and they may have factored that in.
    A cost of £500m, Mr. J? Writing a business case for that would be a bit tricky I should have thought. How many people actually use the line? What are the alternative routes? What would be the costs of continuing with the current, imperfect, arrangements? Those are all questions that would have to be answered and on the face of it I suspect it would be difficult to justify the expenditure of such a vast sum of taxpayers' money.
    Indeed, although as it's early plans there's a hefty contingency on top.

    Apparently it's the stretch of track to the north of Teignmouth, where cliff falls are the current biggest threat to the line. Another option is to stabilise the cliffs, but I can imagine that will be much more expensive due to houses and roads at the top of the cliffs (depending on the area they plan to divert).

    There are currently no alternative routes to Devon and Cornwall. Closure of the line cuts off all of Cornwall and all of Devon west of Exeter; the closure of the line in 2014 caused severe losses to the southwest's economy.

    There is a campaign to reopen the route via Okehampton, but that is sadly much more costly and operationally far from ideal.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193

    Off-topic:
    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243
    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.

    Surely that is beyond stupid?
    Possibly. AIUI there are three threats to the line: 1) the sea undermining it again, leading to long closures; 2) high tides and spray closing the line, which is happening fairly often; and 3) rock falls from the cliffs, which again are happening fairly often.

    Network Rail have had a lot of weather-related line closures recently, and in two of the biggest: at Dover and at Eden's Brow on the Settle and Carlisle, they have (and are) fixing the problems with covered viaducts: basically build a bridge over the affected area and then cover it up again. The ground (or sea) can move underneath and the track will remain supported.

    They therefore know the tech really well.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMeoiRCWYs

    A major issue might be the effect on the locals and the tourist economy. They like their beach and sea view. But I haven't read NR's proposal, and they may have factored that in.
    A cost of £500m, Mr. J? Writing a business case for that would be a bit tricky I should have thought. How many people actually use the line? What are the alternative routes? What would be the costs of continuing with the current, imperfect, arrangements? Those are all questions that would have to be answered and on the face of it I suspect it would be difficult to justify the expenditure of such a vast sum of taxpayers' money.
    Correct. It appears to me that the powers that be will die in a ditch before doing the obvious thing which is to reopen the line between Plymouth and Okehampton as an alternative route.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Well I never....

    The father of the Jungle boy who made Lily Allen cry is an ex-Islamist fighter who sneaked into Britain in a lorry, claimed asylum from the 'terror' of Afghanistan - and then went back there on holiday

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3840098/Calais-Jungle-boy-silly-Lily-cry-father-ex-Islamist-fighter.html

    I strongly suspect that a significant proportion (not all, of course, but many) of these "children" are nothing of the kind - they're young men in their later teens or twenties, masquerading as kids to get additional support in their efforts to be let in. Not that this matters for the real, hardcore No Borders nuts, who think that absolutely everyone who demands to be let into the country should be waved straight through regardless.

    However, if the French are genuinely serious about finally breaking up this miserable shanty town and dispersing the occupants then this can only be a good thing. Not only is it miserable (and sometimes dangerous) for the people of Calais and motorists travelling via the port and the tunnel to have to deal with, but it'll heal an unnecessary running sore in Anglo-French relations.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    Sandpit said:


    Oh dear. If you're a politician, either embrace or ignore comedians. Don't rise to their bait, because they're always better than you at getting laughs at your expense.

    Above all, don't start quoting them in your tweets.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Chris said:

    OllyT said:

    How long before the nearly 60% of Leavers who believe they are going to be better off after Brexit in that Yougov survey wake up to the awful truth.?

    Not to mention the other 29% who didn't think it would make any difference ...
    When we are begging to the IMF for funds following a balance of payments and sterling crisis?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    tlg86 said:

    Off-topic:
    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243
    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.

    Surely that is beyond stupid?
    Possibly. AIUI there are three threats to the line: 1) the sea undermining it again, leading to long closures; 2) high tides and spray closing the line, which is happening fairly often; and 3) rock falls from the cliffs, which again are happening fairly often.

    Network Rail have had a lot of weather-related line closures recently, and in two of the biggest: at Dover and at Eden's Brow on the Settle and Carlisle, they have (and are) fixing the problems with covered viaducts: basically build a bridge over the affected area and then cover it up again. The ground (or sea) can move underneath and the track will remain supported.

    They therefore know the tech really well.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMeoiRCWYs

    A major issue might be the effect on the locals and the tourist economy. They like their beach and sea view. But I haven't read NR's proposal, and they may have factored that in.
    A cost of £500m, Mr. J? Writing a business case for that would be a bit tricky I should have thought. How many people actually use the line? What are the alternative routes? What would be the costs of continuing with the current, imperfect, arrangements? Those are all questions that would have to be answered and on the face of it I suspect it would be difficult to justify the expenditure of such a vast sum of taxpayers' money.
    Correct. It appears to me that the powers that be will die in a ditch before doing the obvious thing which is to reopen the line between Plymouth and Okehampton as an alternative route.
    It's not obvious thing though. It essentially cuts off the large population centres in south Devon from direct trains to London, and involves two reversals to points west of Plymouth. It would be good for the Okehampton route to be reopened, but that proposal should stand on it own merits.

    It'll also be much more expensive, even for the cut-down scheme.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Roger

    'OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake. '


    So the same Champagne Socialists that were in favour of Remain have not changed their minds,who'd have thought it quite a staggering revelation.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    I'm starting to like the look of Hammond to leave at 8/1.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
    It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.

    Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
    It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.

    Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
    The way Trump reacts you would think he had never had any contact with the entertainment industry....
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Sean_F said:

    Dromedary said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    .
    Given how she talks about Europe, trying to paper over ever-widening cracks, presenting the image of leadership when there is none - and perhaps none is possible - neither she nor her clown of a Foreign Secretary are likely to be in office a year from now.

    People said the same about Thatcher, who faced far greater difficulties than May does.
    As one who remembers the early years of Thatcher (as opposed to the fan boy myths) she was a dead woman walking until Galtieri rescued her...."grammar school girl, not up to the top job..."
    That isn't my memory at all. It was certainly what her political enemies were saying about her, trying to create the narrative as it were, but the polls were already moving in her favour. I think she would have or at least could well have won in '83 or '84 without the Falklands effect.
    Not my memory either, as a political opponent. She wasn’t doing well in 1981 at all, and the Press were fawning round the Gang of Four. However, there was, as you say, some improvment in 1983. My recollection is that, as a Liberal, a realistic expectation was a hung parliament.
    It's an old myth that the Falklands saved Thatcher (ask OGH) - it overlooks the fact that the Labour party was standing on a platform described "as the longest suicide note in history". The realistic projections were that without the Falklands effect, the Conservatives would have maybe got 20 fewer seats.

    The hung parliament idea was the hoped for outcome for the SDP/Liberals - they got some nice spikes in the polls, but ultimately not the depth of political backing to make a breakthrough.
    20 fewer would have left a tiny Tory majority; 25 would have meant them the largest party but without a majority.
    Not really. Thatcher had a majority of 144 in 1983 s0 having 20 fewer seats would only have reduced that to 104..That said, I do not share the assumption , and believe that without the Falklands War Thatcher would probably have failed to match her 1979 majority of 43.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    nielh said:

    taffys said:

    As soon as prices go up in the shops then the 52% mandate decreases because 5% or whatever of the leave vote decide they have been played and lied to.

    Another patronising, sneering remainer who thinks the plebs will turn on Brexit when the price of their beer and bingo goes up.

    There are countries that would probably be richer if they had stayed with the British Empire. There are probably black people who would be better off if they had stuck with apartheit.

    Does anybody want to go back to either? no. And they are right. They prefer their independence. And so do we.

    Reminds me of a conversation with a South African, I worked with years ago. He's been a long term opponent of Apartheid... he described voting for the change as "voting myself out of a job, but for the right thing". He also said he was in favour of the sanctions despite the number of people killed and impoverished by them - because the black population (who bore the brunt of the worst suffering caused by the sanctions) were in favour of them - and *after* that, because they bought the change forward.

    The funny bit was the progressive types in the group thought he was being "racist" - for suggesting that sanctions caused suffering (this was long before sanctions on Iraq became a bete noir (!!) of the left) and suggesting that there were less job opportunities in the new South Africa.
    This decision is incomparable with apartheid, nor colnialism. Totally different magnitude.
    The point wasn't the cause - it was an interesting mind gap among some intelligent people. They couldn't understand that someone could see something as not being in their interest and do it willingly. And they couldn't believe that a "good" policy could have negative effects.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
    That's the point - he envisaged a time when control of currency would be in the hands of the bankers.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
    40% with Comres last night.
    Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
    That's the point - he envisaged a time when control of currency would be in the hands of the bankers.
    A strong argument in favour of the gold standard!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
    And the whole point of floating exchange rates is that they are not controlled by governments now, anyway
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193

    tlg86 said:

    Off-topic:
    I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243
    Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.

    Surely that is beyond stupid?
    Possibly. AIUI there are three threats to the line: 1) the sea undermining it again, leading to long closures; 2) high tides and spray closing the line, which is happening fairly often; and 3) rock falls from the cliffs, which again are happening fairly often.

    Network Rail have had a lot of weather-related line closures recently, and in two of the biggest: at Dover and at Eden's Brow on the Settle and Carlisle, they have (and are) fixing the problems with covered viaducts: basically build a bridge over the affected area and then cover it up again. The ground (or sea) can move underneath and the track will remain supported.

    They therefore know the tech really well.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WMeoiRCWYs

    A major issue might be the effect on the locals and the tourist economy. They like their beach and sea view. But I haven't read NR's proposal, and they may have factored that in.
    A cost of £500m, Mr. J? Writing a business case for that would be a bit tricky I should have thought. How many people actually use the line? What are the alternative routes? What would be the costs of continuing with the current, imperfect, arrangements? Those are all questions that would have to be answered and on the face of it I suspect it would be difficult to justify the expenditure of such a vast sum of taxpayers' money.
    Correct. It appears to me that the powers that be will die in a ditch before doing the obvious thing which is to reopen the line between Plymouth and Okehampton as an alternative route.
    It's not obvious thing though. It essentially cuts off the large population centres in south Devon from direct trains to London, and involves two reversals to points west of Plymouth. It would be good for the Okehampton route to be reopened, but that proposal should stand on it own merits.

    It'll also be much more expensive, even for the cut-down scheme.
    Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
    It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.

    Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
    Trump probably likes nothing better than being imitated but he was right to point out the incompetence of Baldwin's performance.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited October 2016

    This morning's focus on the Home Affairs Committee report into anti-semitism rightly focuses on Labour but as Guido points out.... "There is also strong condemnation of Tim Farron and the Liberal Democrats’ dire response to anti-Semitism, following Guido’s stories on former MP and current LibDem councillor David Ward: “We were disappointed by the manner in which their Leader, Tim Farron, referred to disciplinary processes rather than explicitly condemning antisemitic remarks made by members of his Party, and we were surprised to learn that Cllr David Ward remains an elected representative of the Liberal Democrats, despite his repeated antisemitic comments… He denied that Cllr Ward was a “repeat offender” and said that it was “very tricky” to judge whether an individual has been antisemitic or “just provocative and offensive”.”
    http://order-order.com/2016/10/16/corbyn-condemned-home-affairs-committee-anti-semitism/

    At the risk of being flamed, it seems to me that David Ward’s comments, while sometimes not the most tactfully phrased, appear to be ciritcal of the policies and practices of successive Israeli governments, rather than antisemitic as presently understood.
    Ward's comments were judged so bad that he was suspended from the Lib Dem party, again and again and ....
    http://order-order.com/2013/01/25/watch-david-ward-car-crash-sky-jews-interview/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
    It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.

    Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
    The way Trump reacts you would think he had never had any contact with the entertainment industry....
    Indeed. He should remember from hosting that show, that they have about 30 writers who spend three days writing jokes, then three more days refining them before they go to air. He's never going to win that exchange in a month of Saturday Nights.

    I have a feeling that the campaign is getting to him now - he didn't expect it to be quite so nasty, and for certain sections of the media to hate him quite as much as they now clearly do. Only 25 days to go!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    No where near as entertaining as the real thing....
    The line from 'Trump': "Hillary has committed so many crimes she is basically black" is truly cutting.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    Maybe there is some of that, but doing no more than reflecting the Meeksian attitude of "You BrExit, You fix it".

    Remainers can't have this both ways, either the Leavers broke it and need to let them fix it, or we are all in this together in which the sore losers need stop bitching and put their shoulder to the wheel with everyone else.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
    It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.

    Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
    The way Trump reacts you would think he had never had any contact with the entertainment industry....
    Indeed. He should remember from hosting that show, that they have about 30 writers who spend three days writing jokes, then three more days refining them before they go to air. He's never going to win that exchange in a month of Saturday Nights.

    I have a feeling that the campaign is getting to him now - he didn't expect it to be quite so nasty, and for certain sections of the media to hate him quite as much as they now clearly do. Only 25 days to go!
    The surprising thing about Trump is that, despite the intelligence that is supposed to lie beneath, he hasn't changed his character at all since the primaries. Indeed arguably he has doubled down. Which was never going to win over undecideds.

    Even Boris understands that he is supposed to act like a grown up nowadays, even if he isn't quite there.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504

    Roger said:

    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.
    .............

    Interesting that you sense no sign of a need for the EU to address the growing pressures and change itself to deal with them.
    Roger : Did you make sure of their cellarage arrangements before canvassing their views? You might have accidently asked the wrong people...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
    It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.

    Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
    The way Trump reacts you would think he had never had any contact with the entertainment industry....
    Indeed. He should remember from hosting that show, that they have about 30 writers who spend three days writing jokes, then three more days refining them before they go to air. He's never going to win that exchange in a month of Saturday Nights.

    I have a feeling that the campaign is getting to him now - he didn't expect it to be quite so nasty, and for certain sections of the media to hate him quite as much as they now clearly do. Only 25 days to go!
    Well I suppose SNL is beloved by the kind of latte-drinking east coasters who Trump is waging war on, so kinda makes sense to go on the attack.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,320
    justin124 said:

    <

    20 fewer would have left a tiny Tory majority; 25 would have meant them the largest party but without a majority.

    Not really. Thatcher had a majority of 144 in 1983 s0 having 20 fewer seats would only have reduced that to 104..That said, I do not share the assumption , and believe that without the Falklands War Thatcher would probably have failed to match her 1979 majority of 43.
    I was thinking @OldKingCole had accidentally used the figures from 79 rather than 83.

    That said, although as you know I disagree with you about the extent of the Falklands impact, I think a Tory majority of over 100 without the splits it engendered in Labour is an optimistic analysis. 50 would be more like it.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313

    Roger said:

    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.
    .............

    Interesting that you sense no sign of a need for the EU to address the growing pressures and change itself to deal with them.
    Roger : Did you make sure of their cellarage arrangements before canvassing their views? You might have accidently asked the wrong people...
    Well the world isn't rushing to buy £s and sterling assets, and there has been a wave of sellers. So they appear to be in good company.
  • Options

    I'm starting to like the look of Hammond to leave at 8/1.

    Mrs May needs a GE first.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    tlg86 said:



    Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.

    Just doing a quick google on this suggests that there is a lot of local support for re-opening the Okehampton route, maybe NIMBYs would not be too much of an issue.

    If the taxpayer is going to spend serious dosh on railways in the South West, perhaps it would be better if it extended the network in to areas currently deprived of their benefits.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    That may well be so. I think the chances of something like being adopted are low, as does the columnist. One would like to think that behind the scenes some hard thinking rather than the posturing that gets reported is going on. Small acorns and all that.

    Sadly there is precious little thinking in the last 40 years from the EU which could not loosely be filed under the headings of "more EU" or "ask them until they give the right answer"

    More lateral thinking and less one-size-fits-all megalomania and we may very well not have arrived at where we are now.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited October 2016

    Well I never....

    The father of the Jungle boy who made Lily Allen cry is an ex-Islamist fighter who sneaked into Britain in a lorry, claimed asylum from the 'terror' of Afghanistan - and then went back there on holiday

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3840098/Calais-Jungle-boy-silly-Lily-cry-father-ex-Islamist-fighter.html

    .............However, if the French are genuinely serious about finally breaking up this miserable shanty town and dispersing the occupants then this can only be a good thing. Not only is it miserable (and sometimes dangerous) for the people of Calais and motorists travelling via the port and the tunnel to have to deal with, but it'll heal an unnecessary running sore in Anglo-French relations.
    Clearly the french do not have the same social workers that our councils have....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    Guess who disagrees? Surprising, as he always seems such a thick skinned sort, willing to take a joke at his own expense.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787612552654155776
    Baldwin's impersonation stinks. So does the actress mimicking Hillary. Piss poor.
    It's drawn the reaction from Trump though, which is just what he shouldn't have done.

    Sarah Palin got absolutely monstered on SNL by Tina Fey back in 2008, and she turned up and joined in the sketch a fortnight before the election. That's how you react to a satirical pisstake, not by jumping up and down about it.
    The way Trump reacts you would think he had never had any contact with the entertainment industry....
    Indeed. He should remember from hosting that show, that they have about 30 writers who spend three days writing jokes, then three more days refining them before they go to air. He's never going to win that exchange in a month of Saturday Nights.

    I have a feeling that the campaign is getting to him now - he didn't expect it to be quite so nasty, and for certain sections of the media to hate him quite as much as they now clearly do. Only 25 days to go!
    The surprising thing about Trump is that, despite the intelligence that is supposed to lie beneath, he hasn't changed his character at all since the primaries. Indeed arguably he has doubled down. Which was never going to win over undecideds.

    Even Boris understands that he is supposed to act like a grown up nowadays, even if he isn't quite there.
    Indeed. It would be like Corbyn saying that unilateral nuclear disarmament was too wishy washy, and that if elected he'd scrap the armed forces in their entirety - in the middle of the short election campaign, just as the postal votes arrive. Complete madness.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Having just spent some time in France and a lesser amount in Italy I can report that the unamimous view towards the UK's Brexit is pity. I met no one who thought other than that we had made a catastrophic mistake.
    .............

    Interesting that you sense no sign of a need for the EU to address the growing pressures and change itself to deal with them.
    Roger : Did you make sure of their cellarage arrangements before canvassing their views? You might have accidently asked the wrong people...
    Well the world isn't rushing to buy £s and sterling assets, and there has been a wave of sellers. So they appear to be in good company.
    IIRC Roger once claimed that spending less than X on a bottle meant you were buying bad wine. A major objection to Cameron was that he kept wine too close to his cooker in his kitchen.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
    And the whole point of floating exchange rates is that they are not controlled by governments now, anyway
    lol

    Who creates the money? Central banks, not the markets. Money creation - its volume, the interest rate attached to it, the method it is done, etc - is control of a currency and the markets (the currency exchanges but also all markets - ie inflation) react to that.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    SkyNews articles are rabidly pro-EU.

    Will their parent company lose a lot if we exit the EU?

    Do they think they can reverse the decision?

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    <

    20 fewer would have left a tiny Tory majority; 25 would have meant them the largest party but without a majority.

    Not really. Thatcher had a majority of 144 in 1983 s0 having 20 fewer seats would only have reduced that to 104..That said, I do not share the assumption , and believe that without the Falklands War Thatcher would probably have failed to match her 1979 majority of 43.
    I was thinking @OldKingCole had accidentally used the figures from 79 rather than 83.

    That said, although as you know I disagree with you about the extent of the Falklands impact, I think a Tory majority of over 100 without the splits it engendered in Labour is an optimistic analysis. 50 would be more like it.
    Given the political upheavals around that time, all we can come up with is a wide spread of possible outcomes. You may well have been right.. I might guess that a Tory majority of 50-70 would have been the main body of the distribution of possible results for 83, minus the Falklands... but that is only a guess.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,320


    SkyNews articles are rabidly pro-EU.

    Will their parent company lose a lot if we exit the EU?

    Do they think they can reverse the decision?

    Weren't they being caused problems by single market rules that meant their customers could get cheaper deals elsewhere? Or have I missed something out?

    But Murdoch probably has eyes on the pan-European market anyway.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193

    tlg86 said:



    Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.

    Just doing a quick google on this suggests that there is a lot of local support for re-opening the Okehampton route, maybe NIMBYs would not be too much of an issue.

    If the taxpayer is going to spend serious dosh on railways in the South West, perhaps it would be better if it extended the network in to areas currently deprived of their benefits.
    I'm not fond of the "build it and they'll come attitude", but you only have to see the higher than expected passenger numbers on the Borders Line in Scotland to see that the Okehampton Line would be very attractive for the leisure market.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193
    ydoethur said:


    SkyNews articles are rabidly pro-EU.

    Will their parent company lose a lot if we exit the EU?

    Do they think they can reverse the decision?

    Weren't they being caused problems by single market rules that meant their customers could get cheaper deals elsewhere? Or have I missed something out?

    But Murdoch probably has eyes on the pan-European market anyway.
    They've expanded their sports broadcasting into Italy and Germany. I think they paid quite a lot for domestic Bundesliga rights recently. Though, quite how Brexit would affect that, I'm not sure.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
    And the whole point of floating exchange rates is that they are not controlled by governments now, anyway
    Though controlling banking did have it's advantages - Rothschild seriously helped the British government during the Napoleonic wars. Hence Boney's whining about the treacherous English gold being used to subvert the Continental System... the cash that paid for the Lines of Torres Vedras, and enabled Wellington's quartermasters to pay the locals in cash for their crops etc. Unlike Napoleon's army, who basically stole their way round Europe...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,655
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:



    Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.

    Just doing a quick google on this suggests that there is a lot of local support for re-opening the Okehampton route, maybe NIMBYs would not be too much of an issue.

    If the taxpayer is going to spend serious dosh on railways in the South West, perhaps it would be better if it extended the network in to areas currently deprived of their benefits.
    I'm not fond of the "build it and they'll come attitude", but you only have to see the higher than expected passenger numbers on the Borders Line in Scotland to see that the Okehampton Line would be very attractive for the leisure market.
    While we are talking about reopening old railways, can I give a shout out for the Skipton to Colne line.

    http://www.selrap.org.uk

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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,496

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @tyson"

    'One of the many paradoxes of Brexit was the lemming like behaviour of British farmers who voted generally to leave the well subsidised and protected EU'

    Where is the polling evidence for your claim ?

    As far as I could see it was mainly the French that benefited from subsidies due to the type of farming small holder set up they have. It was also inferred that the CAP subsidies etc would be reformed when Blair gave up some of the British rebate. Not sure if that ever happened but like anything to do with the EU I very much doubt it.

    Possibly the farmers noticed and this influenced their vote if Tysons point about farmers voting is shown to be correct?
    Well I know at least one farmer voted Leave because I saw one speak on behalf of Leave campaign at a public event. He moaned for five minutes about EU paperwork and complained at length that he had to fill in a 20 page form in order to get his subsidy, which iirc was about £30K a year.

    After he had finished a student stood up in the audience and said he would be more than happy to fill in a twenty page form every year to get £30K.

    Much laughter.
    I believe a majority of Scottish farmers voted Leave. They're currently petitioning to have farm payments paid in Euros due to the exchange rate.

    Much hollow laughter.
    Actually they're currently having a wonderful time facing unprecedented demand for their produce due to a weak pound. Hollowly laughing all the way to the bank.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
    That's the point - he envisaged a time when control of currency would be in the hands of the bankers.
    A strong argument in favour of the gold standard!
    The USA sensibly put political union before currency union but took 150 years to go from 13 states to 50. The EU stupidly did the reverse and arguably moved too fast. That may blow up the project.

    The key objective was to harness France and Germany into a peaceful trading and ultimately political bloc. That's been achieved; the rest could take its time, including adding states from the first ones that want to make a US of E.

    But I think the UK has made an even worse move. Time will tell. A friend (61) who's almost retired says we're in for 'a bleak 25 years'. I've never heard him use such pessimistic words.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    tlg86 said:



    Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.

    Just doing a quick google on this suggests that there is a lot of local support for re-opening the Okehampton route, maybe NIMBYs would not be too much of an issue.

    If the taxpayer is going to spend serious dosh on railways in the South West, perhaps it would be better if it extended the network in to areas currently deprived of their benefits.
    Anyone using the expression NIMBY outs himself as an OKISEBY, which is equally bad. As the BY in question here is Dartmoor, its preservation is of national, not purely local, interest.

    It is also true that it is bloody irritating to have to drive 30 miles to Exeter to get a train.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    edited October 2016

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:



    Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.

    Just doing a quick google on this suggests that there is a lot of local support for re-opening the Okehampton route, maybe NIMBYs would not be too much of an issue.

    If the taxpayer is going to spend serious dosh on railways in the South West, perhaps it would be better if it extended the network in to areas currently deprived of their benefits.
    I'm not fond of the "build it and they'll come attitude", but you only have to see the higher than expected passenger numbers on the Borders Line in Scotland to see that the Okehampton Line would be very attractive for the leisure market.
    While we are talking about reopening old railways, can I give a shout out for the Skipton to Colne line.

    http://www.selrap.org.uk
    That website is awfully designed. It's almost as bad as mine. ;)

    But yes, Skipton to Colne is an interesting potential reopening. Their costs estimates are rather (ahem) low though.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Floater said:

    Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"

    It's funny, we all see what we want to see.

    Some people see a bunch of establishment types, mp's and big businesses trying to ignore the wishes of the people.

    You pays your money you takes your choice......
    If they think they will get away with it they will do it for sure, it will be their interests that are being considered, not the great unwashed plebs
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
    40% with Comres last night.
    I thought we'd established that this wasn't an opinion poll.
  • Options
    'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...

    Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry
    German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east

    FT today...

    "...Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week warned against such “comfortable” deals and urged companies engaged in sectoral talks on market access to avoid compromising on EU principles — particularly freedom of movement.

    Mr Wissmann backed that position. “The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important,” he said. “If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry.”

    Germany’s priority must be “to keep the EU 27 together”, he said.

    But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period. “If the UK doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Italy’s car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,” he said.

    - by the way, this guy Wissmann is the same guy whose pre-referendum comments were taken as evidence the German Car Industry would guarantee us a cushy deal...

    His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    Sandpit said:

    This is the funniest take on a presidential debate that's probably ever been done. SNL cold open from last night.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ

    No where near as entertaining as the real thing....
    In fairness we are reaching the point when the opportunities for satire or burlesque are increasingly limited in their scope.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, for those who think that my suggestion in my thread header on Friday (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/14/cyclefree-with-a-mischievous-suggestion/) was away with the fairies, they might like to read Philip Aldrick's column in yesterday's Times.

    Apparently a paper has been written by Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the German Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Jean Pisani-Ferry, head of a think tank reporting to the French PM and Sir Paul Tucker, former deputy-governor of the BoE. The European think tank, Breugel, has also contributed.

    They start from the position that it is possible for Britain to remain part of the single market and regain sovereignty over its borders (though there will be costs for Britain, obviously) and they state that "free movement of workers is not indispensable for the smooth functioning of economic integration". The assumptions behind the paper is that both Britain and the rest of the EU have much to lose from Brexit and their suggestion is that there should be an inner core of EU states and "an outer circle of countries involved in a structured intergovernmental partnership".

    Worth reading the whole column.

    But, ahem, some of us with less illustrious bona fides, are feeling quite vainglorious this morning.

    *Buffs nails and awaits garlands of flowers*

    Alas I think your nails will be buffed away long before the garlands arrive from those who owe them! ;)

    Robert is right, in saying that all current public pronouncements on Brexit are mere setting of the opening stage of negotiations, and we should not assume that anything is non-negotiable. As a Brexiteer, I am conscious that this also means the British red lines.
  • Options
    bazzer72 said:

    'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...

    Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry
    German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east

    FT today...

    "...Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week warned against such “comfortable” deals and urged companies engaged in sectoral talks on market access to avoid compromising on EU principles — particularly freedom of movement.

    Mr Wissmann backed that position. “The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important,” he said. “If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry.”

    Germany’s priority must be “to keep the EU 27 together”, he said.

    But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period. “If the UK doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Italy’s car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,” he said.

    - by the way, this guy Wissmann is the same guy whose pre-referendum comments were taken as evidence the German Car Industry would guarantee us a cushy deal...

    His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..

    When did Italy leave this wonderful single market ?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    tlg86 said:



    Oh, I meant in addition to keeping the coastal route. So this building the line at sea proposal is cheaper than reopening the Okehampton route? I suppose there aren't too many NIMBYs at sea.

    Just doing a quick google on this suggests that there is a lot of local support for re-opening the Okehampton route, maybe NIMBYs would not be too much of an issue.

    If the taxpayer is going to spend serious dosh on railways in the South West, perhaps it would be better if it extended the network in to areas currently deprived of their benefits.
    There is much support for it reopening. Though the freight line to Okehampton is sort-of 'reopened' anyway; trains run along it occasionally as part of a preserved railway scheme.

    http://www.dartmoorrailway.com/

    From memory, having read the report, the problems are west of Okehampton towards Tavistock. Not just the famous and beautiful Meldon viaduct, but other works. ISTR there's also problems on the exisiting freight line if you want the new route as double track, where many millions will have to be spent in an area where the formation is troublesome. They could put a single line on it, but not a double. From memory, at least.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    ydoethur said:


    SkyNews articles are rabidly pro-EU.

    Will their parent company lose a lot if we exit the EU?

    Do they think they can reverse the decision?

    Weren't they being caused problems by single market rules that meant their customers could get cheaper deals elsewhere? Or have I missed something out?

    But Murdoch probably has eyes on the pan-European market anyway.
    Their Sky Sports TV deal with pubs was being undercut by publicans buying in the equivalent packages on satellite from places like Greece.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135

    Trump probably likes nothing better than being imitated but he was right to point out the incompetence of Baldwin's performance.

    It may not be a particularly accurate impersonation (like Kate KcKinnon's Clinton), but I don't understand how people could find it unfunny - unless they were Trump partisans who felt threatened by it.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2016
    bazzer72 said:

    But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period.

    Doesn't the fool recognise the role of the single market in helping to create that?

    Perhaps Renzi might like to run with it ?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    bazzer72 said:

    His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..

    You were humming this tune yesterday, any chance of getting to the chorus so we can all join in ?

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,899
    edited October 2016
    Indigo said:


    Remainers can't have this both ways, either the Leavers broke it and need to let them fix it, or we are all in this together in which the sore losers need stop bitching and put their shoulder to the wheel with everyone else.

    You act as if Remain have agency. They don't: LEAVE won, remember. If the May Government is too Remainian for you, please feel free to depose it. Leaver's are in the Brexit department, International Trade, and Foreign Secretary. All I see in the newspapers is LEAVErs complaining about Remainians bullying them...somehow. Presumably by magic. What do you want, flowers? Stop complaining, grow up and crack on.

    Honestly... (stomps off)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    chestnut said:

    ydoethur said:


    SkyNews articles are rabidly pro-EU.

    Will their parent company lose a lot if we exit the EU?

    Do they think they can reverse the decision?

    Weren't they being caused problems by single market rules that meant their customers could get cheaper deals elsewhere? Or have I missed something out?

    But Murdoch probably has eyes on the pan-European market anyway.
    Their Sky Sports TV deal with pubs was being undercut by publicans buying in the equivalent packages on satellite from places like Greece.
    More costly than that was EU meddling that said Sky's monopoly deal with the Premier League had to be broken up. The result has been more cost for Sky and BT, and ultimately more cost for the customer.

    The only people have benefited from EU sticking its nose in, is the oh so poor and hard done by footballers.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    To lighten the mood a little

    image
  • Options
    Bob Geldof sued for millions by former bandmate over claims he co-wrote I Don't Like Mondays

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/16/bob-geldof-sued-for-millions-by-former-bandmate-over-claims-he-c/

    Give us your f##king money....sticks up two fingers...
  • Options
    bazzer72 said:

    'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...

    Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry
    German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east

    FT today...

    "...Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week warned against such “comfortable” deals and urged companies engaged in sectoral talks on market access to avoid compromising on EU principles — particularly freedom of movement.

    Mr Wissmann backed that position. “The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important,” he said. “If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry.”

    Germany’s priority must be “to keep the EU 27 together”, he said.

    But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period. “If the UK doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Italy’s car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,” he said.

    - by the way, this guy Wissmann is the same guy whose pre-referendum comments were taken as evidence the German Car Industry would guarantee us a cushy deal...

    His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymFSzyTqfe0

    One for all the Merkels and Meeks out there.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
    40% with Comres last night.
    Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
    I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.

    Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
    In many ways the Euro was a good idea.

    And Roger is right.
    "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."

    - Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
    Tosh, because in the time of the gold standard, no government had control of their own currency. (Which was when BdR was around.)
    That's the point - he envisaged a time when control of currency would be in the hands of the bankers.
    .....But I think the UK has made an even worse move. Time will tell. A friend (61) who's almost retired says we're in for 'a bleak 25 years'. I've never heard him use such pessimistic words.
    61? Clearly thinking too juvenile for his age. When he gets a few years older and wiser he will see the sense in LEAVE. We know that the older and wiser you get the morelikely to vote LEAVE and vote Conservative.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    Indigo said:

    nielh said:

    Look at tory party conference. Lots of tory boys walking round in total confusion. The party have abandoned the free market. What do they stand for? This?

    You mean people like TSE who might be Tory but are as wet as a haddock's bathing costume are looking aghast that the party seems to have elected a pretty standard country Tory to be in charge. May's high approval rating in the shires and lower rating in the metropolitan areas tells you all you need to know. The metropolitans might be noisy but they are heavily outnumbered by provincial Tories, good luck with displacing May.

    yeah but its this wing of the party that have been electorally unsuccessful and that will continue to be the case with this new agenda. Nothing for its backers in business.
    A 43% share in mid-term, with lots of UKIP voters still to win over, seems a good place for the Conservatives to be in.
    40% with Comres last night.
    Not a VI poll, as has been explained to you repeatedly.
    I proceeded to investigate further and looked at the Comres tables myself There is data in one table related to Voting Intention!
    But ComRes repeated say not to take notice of any of their voter intention polling at the moment as they try to work out why they have issues with their methods.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    bazzer72 said:

    'The German car manufacturers will never let Merkel & the EU play hard ball, they need the UK to export all their BMWs to' - the gist of the leave campaign throughout...

    Germany warns hard Brexit will devastate UK car industry
    German industry chief Matthias Wissmann says single market exit would see output shift east

    FT today...

    "...Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week warned against such “comfortable” deals and urged companies engaged in sectoral talks on market access to avoid compromising on EU principles — particularly freedom of movement.

    Mr Wissmann backed that position. “The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important,” he said. “If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry.”

    Germany’s priority must be “to keep the EU 27 together”, he said.

    But Mr Wissmann warned that the UK could end up like Italy, whose output of cars has shrunk from about 2m a year 20 years ago to 500,000 now. Slovakia’s production has risen from virtually zero to more than 1m vehicles in the same period. “If the UK doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Italy’s car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,” he said.

    - by the way, this guy Wissmann is the same guy whose pre-referendum comments were taken as evidence the German Car Industry would guarantee us a cushy deal...

    His comments might be dismissed as posturing but here's a fact: From Germany's point of view, keeping the EU together (and the export show on the road) is far more important than the UK alone..therefore crucifying Britain is surely the way to go for them as well..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymFSzyTqfe0

    One for all the Merkels and Meeks out there.
    Part of the "liberal elite" still doesn't get it:

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/787629286039642112

    And part does:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3839883/DAN-HODGES-want-revolution-spark-it.html

    Cohen represents the tendency that thinks democratic decisions should be ignored when they go against what right thinking people (i.e. people like him) want to happen. As Hodges points out, this is the shortest route to the creation of a British Donald Trump. And then we really would be stuffed.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,899
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, for those who think that my suggestion in my thread header on Friday (http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/14/cyclefree-with-a-mischievous-suggestion/) was away with the fairies, they might like to read Philip Aldrick's column in yesterday's Times.

    Apparently a paper has been written by Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the German Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Jean Pisani-Ferry, head of a think tank reporting to the French PM and Sir Paul Tucker, former deputy-governor of the BoE. The European think tank, Breugel, has also contributed.

    They start from the position that it is possible for Britain to remain part of the single market and regain sovereignty over its borders (though there will be costs for Britain, obviously) and they state that "free movement of workers is not indispensable for the smooth functioning of economic integration". The assumptions behind the paper is that both Britain and the rest of the EU have much to lose from Brexit and their suggestion is that there should be an inner core of EU states and "an outer circle of countries involved in a structured intergovernmental partnership".

    Worth reading the whole column.

    But, ahem, some of us with less illustrious bona fides, are feeling quite vainglorious this morning.

    *Buffs nails and awaits garlands of flowers*

    I am more than happy to provide flowers should the situation eventuate. But you will forgive me if I wait for the outcome. Life would be a lot easier if reasonable men and women sat round a table and thrashed out a mutually beneficial solution. But I'm not holding my breath... :(
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    viewcode said:

    Indigo said:


    Remainers can't have this both ways, either the Leavers broke it and need to let them fix it, or we are all in this together in which the sore losers need stop bitching and put their shoulder to the wheel with everyone else.

    You act as if Remain have agency. They don't: LEAVE won, remember. If the May Government is too Remainian for you, please feel free to depose it. Leaver's are in the Brexit department, International Trade, and Foreign Secretary. All I see in the newspapers is LEAVErs complaining about Remainians bullying them...somehow. Presumably by magic. What do you want, flowers? Stop complaining, grow up and crack on.

    Honestly... (stomps off)
    Erm.

    OKC was suggestion that Leavers were recently taking the attitude of "You lost so shut up". I was mere pointing out that this was the flip side of the attitude being take by Meeks and his irreconcilables of "You BrExit, You Fix it". In effect if you want to disown something and wait for someone else to fix it, seeing how many rocks you can put in their shoes isnt really playing the game.
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