So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
Apparently a paper has been written by Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the German Parliament's foreign affairs committee, Jean Pisani-Ferry, head of a think tank reporting to the French PM and Sir Paul Tucker, former deputy-governor of the BoE. The European think tank, Breugel, has also contributed.
They start from the position that it is possible for Britain to remain part of the single market and regain sovereignty over its borders (though there will be costs for Britain, obviously) and they state that "free movement of workers is not indispensable for the smooth functioning of economic integration". The assumptions behind the paper is that both Britain and the rest of the EU have much to lose from Brexit and their suggestion is that there should be an inner core of EU states and "an outer circle of countries involved in a structured intergovernmental partnership".
Worth reading the whole column.
But, ahem, some of us with less illustrious bona fides, are feeling quite vainglorious this morning.
Was it? I did not know that. Oh well. Great minds etc.....
Anyway, the more interesting news for me is that I've decided to take a much needed break, Amalfi being a long time ago, and am flying off to Rome to meet some friends and then we will go where the fancy takes us. No plans - no hotels booked, no flights, just clean underwear, winning smiles and the intention to have some fun......!
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
My point being that PR doesn't stop those parties we oppose getting into power. Indeed to some extent it makes it easier.
Democracy means that sometimes you are on the losing side.
Oh indeed. But my whole point was Nunu seeming to claim he wanted rid of FPTP because Labour could be on power on 37%. I am simply pointing out that with PR they could be in power on a lot less than that. Dislike of one party or another is no basis for supporting a change in voting system..
Contrary to expectation, the Coalition Government was remarkably successful. Similarly, the Lib-Lab coalition produced a period of stability during a turbulent period in the 70's. I think on the whole the British electorate would like more of it whether centre right or centre left.
and there is a huge difference between majority power and being in power alongside other parties. Which is kind of the point?
It was a spam e-mail sent by some random Netherlands e-mail address.
It wasn't even sent to Clinton never mind sent by her.
Why do you keep repeating the lie that this was sent by Clinton?
lol, someone actually tried to claim that was written by Clinton?
This is one dire electoral cycle.
Yes, it was one of the first bombshells of the Podesta e-mails that lovers of the far right blogoshpere have gobbled up unquestioningly. I an amazing display of chutzpah The Gateway Pundit even links to the e-mail so that anyone doing half a second of fact checking can see the claims about it are a lie.
1. Khan is a muslim and London has a high share of muslims (though that didn't stop Galloway beating a muslim in a majority muslim seat in a by-election).
2. London was the Remain Heartland, Galloway supported Leave.
This assumption though is why Khan will never be Labour leader:
" Of course there is the possibility with the current make up the Labour membership and the trend of the NEC becoming more in Corbyn’s image "
Khan is a committed anti-Corbyn politician, and even with his position as Mayor he failed to swing London to Owen Smith.
I thought Galloway had converted to Islam 15 years or so ago, but doesn't like to talk about it?
I would be surprised if Galloway is teetotal.
Anyhow Londoners would never vote him in as Mayor, end of debate.
And that cat video would get a lot of re-showing if he ever got near a contest.
Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"
To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
What especially significant event took place in 1969?
1969 ... Moon landings. Which is very depressing as a sign of the lack of progress for mankind.
JFK put a Man on the Moon, and Obama has put a Man in the Girls' Bathroom.
And Trump put a man in the teen girls changing room.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
A third party would mean both bets lose, surely.
McMullin is a Republican though.
surely to win the bet the victor would need to be the official candidate?
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
IIRC the terms say if it the state is won by someone who isn't the official Dem, Republican, Green etc candidate, then the bet would be settled as an independent win.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
What we see in the 2016 race looks like a repetition of 2012.
Hillary leading by 4 nationally, and by 4-5 points in all swing states bar two (Iowa and Ohio this time, N.Carolina and Florida in 2012).
RCP now says Clinton’s ahead in Ohio. Trailing in Iowa, though.
Forget RCP, they are getting slow because there are not many polls compared with 2012.
In my assumption looking at the polls, Trump should be leading just in Iowa, and a tie in Ohio.
After that there is a big gap of about 4-5 points till another half-dozen states, just like in 2012 where you had 6 states clustered at around 5-7% Obama leads.
It's most unlikely that Trump can win, but interesting that he remains not far behind, in percentage terms.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
There's a separate betfair market with McMullin.
Cool, I'm on McMullin at 25/1 from Wills and am looking for a market where I can lay off if need be.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
Utah will either go for Hillary if Trump if is close to winning the presidency, or for Trump if Hillary is close to winning the presidency.
"Wow. Journo Budowsky's plan is to "make love" to #Bernie fans to reel in vote & "beat the crap out of Rep women & Hispanics" #PodestaEmails9 https://t.co/jCSwjS6B6E
Am I alone in beginning to notice a bit of a “jack-boot tendency” among Leavers.”We’re in control, shut up"
To be fair it appears that the majority seem to think that is what has happened over the last 47 years. Including the promise and non appearance of referendums. It's not nice but winging after 47 days seems a particular spectacular hubris I grant you.
What especially significant event took place in 1969?
1969 ... Moon landings. Which is very depressing as a sign of the lack of progress for mankind.
JFK put a Man on the Moon, and Obama has put a Man in the Girls' Bathroom.
And Trump put a man in the teen girls changing room.
Trump passed a law forcing that to happen across the country? Link, please?
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
Utah will either go for Hillary if Trump if is close to winning the presidency, or for Trump if Hillary is close to winning the presidency.
What we see in the 2016 race looks like a repetition of 2012.
Hillary leading by 4 nationally, and by 4-5 points in all swing states bar two (Iowa and Ohio this time, N.Carolina and Florida in 2012).
RCP now says Clinton’s ahead in Ohio. Trailing in Iowa, though.
Forget RCP, they are getting slow because there are not many polls compared with 2012.
In my assumption looking at the polls, Trump should be leading just in Iowa, and a tie in Ohio.
After that there is a big gap of about 4-5 points till another half-dozen states, just like in 2012 where you had 6 states clustered at around 5-7% Obama leads.
It's most unlikely that Trump can win, but interesting that he remains not far behind, in percentage terms.
He is 4-5 % away from victory assuming a uniformal move from the position today.
However with 3 weeks to go, only the 3rd debate might switch enough numbers to him.
He is in the same position as Romney but running out of time.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
And the Dems are +8 in the sample. Shocker.
That's almost exactly spot on for American Demographics.
It's almost like people aren't aware that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five out the last six elections, and that the demographics are trending towards the Dems.
Has Texas fallen yet?
Not yet.
Trump = Travis
Hillary = Santa Anna
Honestly, I cannot believe people are talking about Utah and Texas going blue.
Utah will go McMullin.
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
My point being that PR doesn't stop those parties we oppose getting into power. Indeed to some extent it makes it easier.
Democracy means that sometimes you are on the losing side.
Oh indeed. But my whole point was Nunu seeming to claim he wanted rid of FPTP because Labour could be on power on 37%. I am simply pointing out that with PR they could be in power on a lot less than that. Dislike of one party or another is no basis for supporting a change in voting system..
Contrary to expectation, the Coalition Government was remarkably successful. Similarly, the Lib-Lab coalition produced a period of stability during a turbulent period in the 70's. I think on the whole the British electorate would like more of it whether centre right or centre left.
I disagree about it being successful but that isn't actually the point. The point is that many on the Left thought that coalition was a way to keep the Tories out of power and so had a strong sense of betrayal when Clegg entered Government with Cameron. No side can assume- as Nunu seems to do in his original posting - that moving away from FPTP will make it harder for their opponents to get into power.
So 37% will vote for him no matter what. Same share Tories got for a majority, that's why I've changed my mind on fptp. I don't want a Labour majority government with 37% of the vote.
Trouble is that with PR they could be in power with a lot less than 37%
As have been the Tories. Under FPTP.
My point being that PR doesn't stop those parties we oppose getting into power. Indeed to some extent it makes it easier.
Democracy means that sometimes you are on the losing side.
Oh indeed. But my whole point was Nunu seeming to claim he wanted rid of FPTP because Labour could be on power on 37%. I am simply pointing out that with PR they could be in power on a lot less than that. Dislike of one party or another is no basis for supporting a change in voting system..
Contrary to expectation, the Coalition Government was remarkably successful. Similarly, the Lib-Lab coalition produced a period of stability during a turbulent period in the 70's. I think on the whole the British electorate would like more of it whether centre right or centre left.
Or Grand Coalition or single party as now. The result would reflect the electorates wishes and, if resulting in a coalition, would require compromises by the parties involved - which would be a good thing.
1. Khan is a muslim and London has a high share of muslims (though that didn't stop Galloway beating a muslim in a majority muslim seat in a by-election).
2. London was the Remain Heartland, Galloway supported Leave.
This assumption though is why Khan will never be Labour leader:
" Of course there is the possibility with the current make up the Labour membership and the trend of the NEC becoming more in Corbyn’s image "
Khan is a committed anti-Corbyn politician, and even with his position as Mayor he failed to swing London to Owen Smith.
I thought Galloway had converted to Islam 15 years or so ago, but doesn't like to talk about it?
I would be surprised if Galloway is teetotal.
Anyhow Londoners would never vote him in as Mayor, end of debate.
And that cat video would get a lot of re-showing if he ever got near a contest.
Galloway is a life-long teetotaller like his father before him. As for the Muslim thing, when his old foe Christopher Hitchens died, Galloway was on Iranian TV or some such stating that his religious beliefs prevented him slagging off the dead for a prescribed period. I know this is an edict of Islam. Is it an edict of any other religion does anyone know?
"Wow. Journo Budowsky's plan is to "make love" to #Bernie fans to reel in vote & "beat the crap out of Rep women & Hispanics" #PodestaEmails9 https://t.co/jCSwjS6B6E
That's not what is says -- it says "beat the crap out of Republicans *especially about" women and Hispanics". Strange how the missing words completely change the meaning of that sentence!
In the last few weeks I felt a shift. Things are not going to be the same. Even casual visitors to the continent will notice it. We have made a catastrphic mistake. At the time of the vote though I was a remainer I thought it would all work out OK-it always does. Now I am almost certain it wont.
Presumably these are the same people who thought the Euro was a good idea?
In many ways the Euro was a good idea.
And Roger is right.
"Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."
- Baron Rothschild (allegedly)
So we'd engineered the perfect compromise pre-Brext. Control of the currency while leaving the impression of pooling sovereignty with our partners.
What we see in the 2016 race looks like a repetition of 2012.
Hillary leading by 4 nationally, and by 4-5 points in all swing states bar two (Iowa and Ohio this time, N.Carolina and Florida in 2012).
RCP now says Clinton’s ahead in Ohio. Trailing in Iowa, though.
Forget RCP, they are getting slow because there are not many polls compared with 2012.
In my assumption looking at the polls, Trump should be leading just in Iowa, and a tie in Ohio.
After that there is a big gap of about 4-5 points till another half-dozen states, just like in 2012 where you had 6 states clustered at around 5-7% Obama leads.
It's most unlikely that Trump can win, but interesting that he remains not far behind, in percentage terms.
He is 4-5 % away from victory assuming a uniformal move from the position today.
However with 3 weeks to go, only the 3rd debate might switch enough numbers to him.
He is in the same position as Romney but running out of time.
Clinton's lead is more than that according to most poll averages. For example, RCP shows 5.5%, and 538 shows 6.6%. The BBC is using the median of the 5 most recent polls, which currently gives Clinton a lead of 8 points.
"Wow. Journo Budowsky's plan is to "make love" to #Bernie fans to reel in vote & "beat the crap out of Rep women & Hispanics" #PodestaEmails9 https://t.co/jCSwjS6B6E
You are right, we don't believe a word, which is why we check the primary source.
"Wow. Journo Budowsky's plan is to "make love" to #Bernie fans to reel in vote & "beat the crap out of Rep women & Hispanics" #PodestaEmails9 https://t.co/jCSwjS6B6E
That's not what is says -- it says "beat the crap out of Republicans *especially about" women and Hispanics". Strange how the missing words completely change the meaning of that sentence!
That's an outrageous doctoring of text. Fair play to Mike and his commitment to free speech. The wilful and abundant posting of lies by Trump supporters on this site is doing its reputation no favours. A less tolerant man than Mike would have issued bans by now.
Off-topic: I missed this, but earlier events were discussed on here at length: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37639243 Network Rail says an option to protect the rail line at Dawlish will be to build it further out to sea, at a cost of £500 million.
Surely that is beyond stupid?
Possibly. AIUI there are three threats to the line: 1) the sea undermining it again, leading to long closures; 2) high tides and spray closing the line, which is happening fairly often; and 3) rock falls from the cliffs, which again are happening fairly often.
Network Rail have had a lot of weather-related line closures recently, and in two of the biggest: at Dover and at Eden's Brow on the Settle and Carlisle, they have (and are) fixing the problems with covered viaducts: basically build a bridge over the affected area and then cover it up again. The ground (or sea) can move underneath and the track will remain supported.
A major issue might be the effect on the locals and the tourist economy. They like their beach and sea view. But I haven't read NR's proposal, and they may have factored that in.
A cost of £500m, Mr. J? Writing a business case for that would be a bit tricky I should have thought. How many people actually use the line? What are the alternative routes? What would be the costs of continuing with the current, imperfect, arrangements? Those are all questions that would have to be answered and on the face of it I suspect it would be difficult to justify the expenditure of such a vast sum of taxpayers' money.
Correct. It appears to me that the powers that be will die in a ditch before doing the obvious thing which is to reopen the line between Plymouth and Okehampton as an alternative route.
I think the general view is that that would be a waste of money. Because a line is needed to Torbay, the Okehampton line is little use; the Dawlish line must be secured. A diversion across the valleys west of Dawlish would be the best solution, but wouldn't come cheap.
Comments
Which raises an interesting point. Betfair settle the states on a Democract/Republican basis no third parties. Would McMullin winning be a Republican win?
lol, someone actually tried to claim that was written by Clinton?
This is one dire electoral cycle.
Anyway, the more interesting news for me is that I've decided to take a much needed break, Amalfi being a long time ago, and am flying off to Rome to meet some friends and then we will go where the fancy takes us. No plans - no hotels booked, no flights, just clean underwear, winning smiles and the intention to have some fun......!
Anyhow Londoners would never vote him in as Mayor, end of debate.
And that cat video would get a lot of re-showing if he ever got near a contest.
Paul Joseph Watson
"Dinner at Podesta's": Full list of colluding fake "journalists". https://t.co/2InWdhW5tN #PodestaEmails9
No wonder they're all ignoring it.
Eggs McMuffin would take 20% in Utah and lose.
I feel ya #PodestaEmails9 #wikileaks #wikileakemails https://t.co/nnZj54S8bC
Seriously, who'd believe a word now?
"Wow. Journo Budowsky's plan is to "make love" to #Bernie fans to reel in vote & "beat the crap out of Rep women & Hispanics" #PodestaEmails9 https://t.co/jCSwjS6B6E
However with 3 weeks to go, only the 3rd debate might switch enough numbers to him.
He is in the same position as Romney but running out of time.
one with McMullin https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27865723/market?marketId=1.127658163
and one without him, only Dem and Rep. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27865723/market?marketId=1.125855743
the latter market will be voided if McMullin wins. He can be backed at 4.7 in 'his' market.
Thanks
Now Cast - 88.5 - 11.5
Polls Only - 86.1 - 13.9
Polls Plus - 83.1 - 16.9
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
"Lanny Davis, columnist w/ @newsmax, @thehill, guarantees to write an HRC puff piece, more media collusion https://t.co/iB6OkyRmtK https://t.co/ernkfHoPDA
The result would reflect the electorates wishes and, if resulting in a coalition, would require compromises by the parties involved - which would be a good thing.
'#PodestaEmails9: Someone here just got a tip that the State Dept may be planning to release her Benghazi emails.
NEW THREAD
https://youtu.be/JdexZK6gciM
Fox
Poll: Will most moderators try to help Clinton, help Trump or be unbiased? https://t.co/KRA9ftWnrG