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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May must be hoping that the Tories do better in Thursday’s Witney contest than in recent local by elections
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First, like Lib Dems
This seat is not a hard core Brexit seat and there is the Cameron factor. He is well liked and has not been active campaigning. The local tories have little enthusiasm for the battle which they see as being TM's fault.
However, to come from 4th position and 6.8% to beat a Tory on 60% must be too high a mountain, mustn't it?
Wikileaks
Alleged hacker arrested over WikiLeaks publications of CIA chief's emails. A 16 year old boy in the UK. https://t.co/qNgYQ9KHbG
A 1946 academic survey of benzedrine, including its use by the allies in the second world war (150 tablets issued to British and American forces).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2478360/pdf/postmedj00645-0004.pdf
Plus it's a by election.
Plus Brexit.
Plus potentially low turnout.
Anything is possible.
Subsidies and interventionist is Bennite.
Low taxes and a competitive environment is Tory.
I guess it's not just dodgy bar charts anymore.
http://wearechange.org/wikileaks-sources-face-serious-charges-following-cia-fbi-dhs-hacks/
More Russians. Seriously, those swallowing this stuff need a pinch
Andrew Otto Boggs, 22, and Justin Gray Liverman, 24, were extradited to Virginia to appear at an Alexandria District Court. Despite the allegations that they belonged to the same hacker group, and the fact that they live so close together, the two men did not know each other offline.
The duo is accused of being part of the hacking group “Crackas With Attitude,” which allegedly social-engineered access to Clapper’s personal email, home telephone and internet account, as well as his wife’s Yahoo email account.
At least three other members of the group, located in the United Kingdom, are currently under investigation by the Crown Prosecution Service. Two, a 16-year-old and a 15-year-old, were arrested earlier this year but have not been identified, as they are minors. One of the minors went by the alias “Cracka,” and is alleged to have been behind the bulk of the breaches.
I think the LDs would be delighted to get in the 20s & smash LAB
He joined the Lib/Dems in March 2010 after having been expelled from the Conservatives in 2009 for standing against the candidate nominated by the party in an election within the European Parliament. So he has been a Lib/Dem since well before the Brexit referendum, was even promised and for reasons unrelated to those in his letter.
Hence he is not telling the truth when he claims to have been a Conservative MEP up to 2010 and it is misleading to infer that he is a lifelong Conservative.
It's certainly very misleading though, but that's SOP for the Lib Dem by-election team.
from the man who joined the LibDems while David Cameron was Conservative leader.
It should be remembered Edward McMillan-Scott was quite happy to be a Conservative under the leadership of Thatcher, Major, Hague, Duncan-Smith and Howard.
Shameful dishonesty.
Not to mention lying over the binding nature of Cameron's negotiation on the ability of the European Parliament or ECJ to demean it after the vote.
There is a difference between lying about the issues and misrepresenting your opponent though. Is posting fake leaflets of your opposition MP candidate legal? This verges on that effectively.
It's a legitimate question but I would have thought it unlikely that an election court would quash an election over something like that because he isn't lying about a rival candidate.
Both the two recent cases where an election was quashed because the successful candidate or his/her campaign were proved to have lied were for serious false allegations against the main rival candidate - IIRC false accusations of being a paedophile in one case, not living in the constituency and stirring up racial hatred in the other.
However, in Alistair Carmichael's case, where he admitted that he had lied by claiming not to have seen a report that Nicola Sturgeon had told the French Ambassador that she wanted the Tories to win the 2015 election when in fact he was the person who authorised leaking it, the court let him off. Had he lied about his SNP opponent, or if the report had been fabricated, he probably would not have, but as it did exist and he essentially only lied about his own role in leaking it, he got away with it.
Comparing the seriousness of the relevant porkies, if they let Carmichael off I can't see that they would quash the election if the Lib/Dems won over a one-year error in the date on which EMS ceased to by a Conservative or over a misleading inference designed to give the impression - without quite stating - that he is a lifelong Conservative.
Given the amount of effort they've put into this, they really need to be at least 10% up on their GE score.
And to really claim a success, I think they need to be at or around Mark's forecast.
Wikileaks
Retweeted WikiLeaks (@wikileaks):
RELEASE: The Podesta Emails Part 8 https://t.co/z9dttjm8Lh #HillaryClinton... https://t.co/ShV7z0HyfX
Anyway, no need to ignore them. 538 have Clinton+6.3, RCP +5.3, and Huffpo +7.9 (although remove openly partisan pollsters from the latter and you get +5.5). All a fairly consistent picture.
Also, look at the NBC/SM giant poll, with 25k or so polled for 1.0% MoE: +5 +6 +5 +5 +2 +4 +4 +5 +6 +6. This week's one comes out on Monday iirc.
As for McMillan-Scott...he truly is the ghastliest of the ghastly. He should have been de-selected in 2009 but the Tories nationally insisted that incumbent MEPs were guaranteed top places on the regional lists.
Dave has been forced to do some more campaigning in the seat, he's really popular in the seat.
And the less said about the Lib Dem Edward MacMillan-Scott the better.
(Now about Mrs May.....)
This was my response.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/787311343250571264
Had the by-election come in the New Year around the A50 moment, it might have been a better prospect. I don't know if anyone has done any analysis on how long new PMs' honeymoons tend to last, but I would expect it should fade by next year, even if Labour remains flat on its back.
NO #HillaryBecause
Her newly released Wall Street speeches in #PodestaEmails8 expose her https://t.co/9Gp8Hc4Ilv
"let's make up a story"
Noticeable that CCHQ have sent no emails to this member asking for help. Have any PB Conservative members been asked by CCHQ?
1983 Penrith
Con -13%
Lib +17%
1984 SW Surrey
Con -10%
Lib +11%
1984 Portsmouth S
Con -16%
SDP +12%
1984 Enfield Southgate
Con -9%
Lib +12%
1985 Brecon
Con -21%
Lib +11%
1986 West Derbyshire
Con -16%
Lib +12%
1986 Ryedale
Con -18%
Lib +20%
1988 Epping Forest
Con -22%
LD/SDP +19%
1989 Richmond
Con -24%
LD/SDP +27%
1990 Eastbourne
Con -19%
LD +21%
1991 Ribble Valley
Con -22%
LD +27%
1991 Kincardine
Con -10%
LD +13%
1993 Newbury
Con -29%
LD +28%
1993 Christchurch
Con -32%
LD +39%
1994 Eastleigh
Con -27%
LD +16%
1995 Littleborough
Con -21%
LD +3%
An average swing of 19%.
Which if repeated should give us approximately Con 41% LD 26%.
As for E M-C, quelle surprise from a rabid Europhile!
Now CCHQ appears not be deploying those resources.
"Meet your local candidate" = they just started renting a flat here a few weeks before election day
I may be being cynical but I rather suspect his backstory has been rather more useful in getting him positions than his abilities.
Here are his tweets
Some tweets about the chances of a 2017 or 2018 election, based on conversations over last fortnight and this piece
From thinking a pre 2020 election was off the cards before we headed to Birmingham for Tory conference, now I think it can't be discounted.
TM may not want to call one from a position of strength. But I report here why she may end up having to from a position of weakness. Why...
This week just gone showed that the Commons has the potential to cause more trouble than expected.
And the Great Repeal Bill - the European Communities Bill (ECB) as known - could be a vehicle for rebellion
One Cabinet minister is reportedly saying that Theresa May is likely to lose the ECB in Commons or Lords & when this happens TM calls elec
Early numbers look ominious. Even with the DUP, the government's working majority is 34, meaning only 17 need to switch sides in a vote.
One informal view: around 5 Tory MPs publicly critical & up to 20 privately signalling they r prepared to vote against gvt for a soft Brexit
"It looks like we've swapped 20 hard Eurosceptics for a 20 strong group of Europhiles", said one member of the government.
A further 30 remain-supporters may cause trouble in future & there are even one or two Brexiteers unhappy with making migration the priority
Tory MPs may be brought into line with threats and turning key votes into confidence votes but Parliamentary defeats on Brexit very damaging
... And that's before the traditional right, who want Theresa May to contemplate WTO rules, find something to rebel on. Which they will.
Another group of Brexiteers say UK-EU deal bound to largely fail and cause significant pain. So have a "clean" break" to WTO then election
3rd suggestion is Theresa holds a quickie snap election straight after triggering Article 50, while Europe working on A50 response/elections
Meanwhile George Osborne is meeting groups of Tory MPs for drinks...
Someone asked if Local Byelections matter, I think the point here is that they can be a pointer to what will happen next May.
Less than 18 Months after The General Election I dont think we shoud expect the Polls to show much change especiaally as The Libdems have had very little coverage in the media. It would not be unreasonable for an average voter to assume that The Libdems had ceased to exist.
Oh and an 80s pop music reference.
My return on Amalie Dideriksen today more than covers it
What a tosser.
I was misled before I checked wikipedia to discover a lot of the intentional implications were nonsense.
EDIT: The article implies that Theresa May is what drove him away rather than his european obsession long before that, which is for the birds...
Cameron's second pact with the same devil did a lot more damage!
1. The only mention of the by election on its landing page is in the twitter and facebook feed!
2. No statement on landing page or a link - if a reader wants to come and help.
3. Local branch events are happening just before and the day after - resources and admin attention are being used as if it is "business as usual". Clearly complacent.
4. The Events pages had no canvassing sessions etc - only annual dinners etc....
Is the Agent the one who lost out on the selection?
https://www.witneyconservatives.com/
Right.....
'tis the art of doing something, for want of anything better to do.
"Hello Chancellor, that's a nice looking €60Tn derivatives in Deutsche Bank, although the share price is looking a bit rocky - would be a shame for the euro if something happened to the bank and it had to be bailed out or resolved, good job we've got well controlled financial traders in the UK perhaps you'd like to talk soft-brexit now"
So there will be votes in the Commons on it from next year, think of it as a long drawn out Parliamentary sequel to the Maastricht Treaty's passage through the Commons.
For example there's provisions of the Good Friday Agreement that are incompatible with leaving the EU that need sorting out.