Mr. Herdson, didn't Hitler order a 24 halt in the pursuit of fleeing Allied soldiers?
From the army, yes, I believe it was something like that. Goering had persuaded him that the Luftwaffe could deal with mopping up the beaches.
It wasn't a completely idiotic order. The Miracle of Dunkirk was just that - there was no way that so many men could have been evacuated without ideal conditions - and the German army had pushed on in their advance through France and the Low Countries to an extent that there was something to be said for briefly regrouping and consolidating supply lines. For that matter, 24 hours in the context of an 8-day evacuation was probably not critical. Even so, he should have left what were essentially tactical decisions to his generals on the ground (and in the air).
Quite so, but there were two groups of generals in the German command chain. One set very much more cautious than the other. The halt command came about because advice from generals.
The other recently emerging factor is that the German Army were all doped to the hilt with amphetamines (pervitin) so they could advance so fast without stopping to sleep etc. but that only works for a while before it catches up with you big time.
That is a new one on me and sounds very unlikely, given the numbers involved. Do you have a source, please?
There was an article in the Daily Heil this week. I've on a military history kick this summer and it seemed quite plausible.
Except, despite having read extensively on the campaign, I have never come across one single memoir that mentions it. However, I shall take a butcher's at the source.
Let me know if I'm wrong, please.
I'd expect it to be easy to discover if true; for it to be all the German Army, or even a large portion of it, would have required a great deal of the drug. It would have had to be made, transported to the units and distributed amongst the men. AIUI until the end of the war, the Germans were fairly good record-keepers, and it should be in there somewhere.
The fact it isn't commonly known makes me think it might have been only a small part of the army, for small periods. Unless it was done in secret, with the drug mixed into foods. But that would have other disadvantages.
Mr. Herdson, didn't Hitler order a 24 halt in the pursuit of fleeing Allied soldiers?
From the army, yes, I believe it was something like that. Goering had persuaded him that the Luftwaffe could deal with mopping up the beaches.
It wasn't a completely idiotic order. The Miracle of Dunkirk was just that - there was no way that so many men could have been evacuated without ideal conditions - and the German army had pushed on in their advance through France and the Low Countries to an extent that there was something to be said for briefly regrouping and consolidating supply lines. For that matter, 24 hours in the context of an 8-day evacuation was probably not critical. Even so, he should have left what were essentially tactical decisions to his generals on the ground (and in the air).
The Dunkirk episode of War Walks is on youtube (and if the BBC put the series on BBC Store, I'd buy it).
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
Out of interest, what do people think would have happened in 1997 if the exhausted, unelectable, sleazy, Major government had been up against Corbyn and co?
Isn't that pretty much what we're all watching in the US right now?
The key difference being that we cant get a Hung Parliament in the US Presidential election.
I think if you take away the press - or key parts of it - being so much on Tony's side, then a landslide becomes a narrow win.
If you then take away the sleaze and constant media attacks, then you're left with a very hung parliament. While the LDs would be king makers, a coalition with a Corbyn Labour party is unlikely.
Mr. Herdson, didn't Hitler order a 24 halt in the pursuit of fleeing Allied soldiers?
From the army, yes, I believe it was something like that. Goering had persuaded him that the Luftwaffe could deal with mopping up the beaches.
Quite so, but there were two groups of generals in the German command chain. One set very much more cautious than the other. The halt command came about because advice from generals.
The other recently emerging factor is that the German Army were all doped to the hilt with amphetamines (pervitin) so they could advance so fast without stopping to sleep etc. but that only works for a while before it catches up with you big time.
That is a new one on me and sounds very unlikely, given the numbers involved. Do you have a source, please?
There was an article in the Daily Heil this week. I've on a military history kick this summer and it seemed quite plausible.
Except, despite having read extensively on the campaign, I have never come across one single memoir that mentions it. However, I shall take a butcher's at the source.
Let me know if I'm wrong, please.
I'd expect it to be easy to discover if true; for it to be all the German Army, or even a large portion of it, would have required a great deal of the drug. It would have had to be made, transported to the units and distributed amongst the men. AIUI until the end of the war, the Germans were fairly good record-keepers, and it should be in there somewhere.
The fact it isn't commonly known makes me think it might have been only a small part of the army, for small periods. Unless it was done in secret, with the drug mixed into foods. But that would have other disadvantages.
Mr. Herdson, didn't Hitler order a 24 halt in the pursuit of fleeing Allied soldiers?
From the army, yes, I believe it was something like that. Goering had persuaded him that the Luftwaffe could deal with mopping up the beaches.
It wasn't a completely idiotic order. The Miracle of Dunkirk was just that - there was no way that so many men could have been evacuated without ideal conditions - and the German army had pushed on in their advance through France and the Low Countries to an extent that there was something to be said for briefly regrouping and consolidating supply lines. For that matter, 24 hours in the context of an 8-day evacuation was probably not critical. Even so, he should have left what were essentially tactical decisions to his generals on the ground (and in the air).
Quite so, but there were two groups of generals in the German command chain. One set very much more cautious than the other. The halt command came about because advice from generals.
The other recently emerging factor is that the German Army were all doped to the hilt with amphetamines (pervitin) so they could advance so fast without stopping to sleep etc. but that only works for a while before it catches up with you big time.
That is a new one on me and sounds very unlikely, given the numbers involved. Do you have a source, please?
There was an article in the Daily Heil this week. I've on a military history kick this summer and it seemed quite plausible.
Except, despite having read extensively on the campaign, I have never come across one single memoir that mentions it. However, I shall take a butcher's at the source.
Let me know if I'm wrong, please.
I'd expect it to be easy to discover if true; for it to be all the German Army, or even a large portion of it, would have required a great deal of the drug. It would have had to be made, transported to the units and distributed amongst the men. AIUI until the end of the war, the Germans were fairly good record-keepers, and it should be in there somewhere.
The fact it isn't commonly known makes me think it might have been only a small part of the army, for small periods. Unless it was done in secret, with the drug mixed into foods. But that would have other disadvantages.
I think divisional commanders were expected to just order it on the Silk Road.
Mr. Herdson, didn't Hitler order a 24 halt in the pursuit of fleeing Allied soldiers?
From the army, yes, I believe it was something like that. Goering had persuaded him that the Luftwaffe could deal with mopping up the beaches.
It wasn't a completely idiotic order. The Miracle of Dunkirk was just that - there was no way that so many men could have been evacuated without ideal conditions - and the German army had pushed on in their advance through France and the Low Countries to an extent that there was something to be said for briefly regrouping and consolidating supply lines. For that matter, 24 hours in the context of an 8-day evacuation was probably not critical. Even so, he should have left what were essentially tactical decisions to his generals on the ground (and in the air).
Quite so, but there were two groups of generals in the German command chain. One set very much more cautious than the other. The halt command came about because advice from generals.
The other recently emerging factor is that the German Army were all doped to the hilt with amphetamines (pervitin) so they could advance so fast without stopping to sleep etc. but that only works for a while before it catches up with you big time.
That is a new one on me and sounds very unlikely, given the numbers involved. Do you have a source, please?
There was an article in the Daily Heil this week. I've on a military history kick this summer and it seemed quite plausible.
Except, despite having read extensively on the campaign, I have never come across one single memoir that mentions it. However, I shall take a butcher's at the source.
Let me know if I'm wrong, please.
GeoffM, makes a point that this story has been kicking about for years and has but one source, a single book buy an author who is not a serious historian. That doesn't make it false. However, one would have thought that of all the German soldiers that have told their stories of their part in the campaign one of them might have mentioned their reliance on stimulants. I don't know of such an admission, and I have never heard of a mass doping before.
Furthermore, the speed of the German advance in May 1940 does not require the mass use of amphetamines to explain it. Units were not moving that fast for that long. On to of which no drug on earth could keep soldiers going for weeks, and that is the time scale we are talking about (the German advance kicked off on 10 May 1940)
Chelsea Clinton set up multiple email accounts under various aliases while working with the Clinton Foundation, one of which she used to solidify donations from left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer, according to leaked emails published Thursday.
The value of the pound that's always quoted is a theoretical midpoint between the "buy price" and the "sell price". The "buy price" is the price in dollars to buy 1 pound, the "sell price" is the number of dollars you can get if you sell 1 pound. One is always lower than the other, and the difference between the two is known as the "spread"[1]. The presenter was quoting the lower of the two, the sell price.[2]
If you want to make money from currency exchanges (or at least minimise your loss!) then a small spread is vital. If you open a dollar account and sterling account in the same bank (it can be done), then the spread is 6-8 cents. If you do it in a bureaux, then the spread is something like 15 cents. Specialist exchange traders (Tor, Tramonex, et al) can get it to (from memory) about 3 cents but they come with conditions.
As one kind person on here pointed out, you can also get an index account from a spread betting/financial futures trading[3], where you can do spread betting on a currency index[4] and there the spread is 1-2 cents.
Tricks exist to get the spread to zero. Travelex, Sainsbury and Tesco offer buyback schemes for a fixed period (eg 45 days) which equates to a zero spread. The Halifax Clarity card offers a zero spread for purchases, tho' whether you can use it to convert currency is not known to me.
[1] Unless you are a Nevada gambler, in which case the word is also used for...oh never mind, American gambling, why can't they just go decimal like everybody else... [2] Unless I get the two mixed up... [3] Terminology is a bit fucked here: the American and British meanings of "spread betting" are subtly different and are overseen by different authorities, so apologies to any Americans reading [4] Is the index the midpoint of a currency? Hmm...,
But these buyback guarantees are only at the rate you bought them for - so you can't make a profit at zero spread. And I expect there still may be a commission. In any event, if your currency has risen in value you need to use a cash exchange rate to convert it back, and hey presto there's a spread.
Almost precisely. At any rate, allowing for the fact that the state of 17th-century technology didn't permit them to have audio tapes of the accused specifying which part of Satan's anatomy they liked to get hold of.
" And if Trump doesn’t win, some are even openly talking about violent rebellion and assassination, as fantastical and unhinged as that may seem. “If she’s in office, I hope we can start a coup. She should be in prison or shot. That’s how I feel about it,” Dan Bowman, a 50-year-old contractor, said of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee. "
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
I assume he isn't talking about Formula 1 cars, even if McLaren don't exactly target the (mass) consumer market.
GeoffM, makes a point that this story has been kicking about for years and has but one source, a single book buy an author who is not a serious historian. That doesn't make it false. However, one would have thought that of all the German soldiers that have told their stories of their part in the campaign one of them might have mentioned their reliance on stimulants. I don't know of such an admission, and I have never heard of a mass doping before.
Furthermore, the speed of the German advance in May 1940 does not require the mass use of amphetamines to explain it. Units were not moving that fast for that long. On to of which no drug on earth could keep soldiers going for weeks, and that is the time scale we are talking about (the German advance kicked off on 10 May 1940)
Frankly, I think the story is a nonsense.
I'd agree with that assessment in all respects.
Also, the Guardian has a lengthy review of the book and the man behind it. To be honest it doesn't exactly overload the guy with credibility.
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
Yes, luxury, sports and racing cars have much more labour than more general cars, but the UK has a huge number of the world's more expensive cars manufactured here. My key points:
1. That while Nissan are complaining, other carmakers are hiring more staff and getting on with what they do, making cars and exporting them. 2. That the preferred solution is a level regulatory playing field of low corporate and payroll taxes, rather than singling out certain companies for special treatment.
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
I assume he isn't talking about Formula 1 cars, even if McLaren don't exactly target the (mass) consumer market.
I imagine the UK labour content in a McLaren is going to be in the 20-30% range, against sub 5% for a Nissan.
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
I assume he isn't talking about Formula 1 cars, even if McLaren don't exactly target the (mass) consumer market.
Yes, was referring to road cars - they're up to about 3,000 per year now and have just created I think 500 new skilled jobs in Woking. And I wasn't lucky enough to drive an F1 car, was one of these: the number refers to the horsepower! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLaren_650S
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
Yes, luxury, sports and racing cars have much more labour than more general cars, but the UK has a huge number of the world's more expensive cars manufactured here. My key points:
1. That while Nissan are complaining, other carmakers are hiring more staff and getting on with what they do, making cars and exporting them. 2. That the preferred solution is a level regulatory playing field of low corporate and payroll taxes, rather than singling out certain companies for special treatment.
I'm not going to disagree with that!
BUT. It is worth remembering that 80-90% of the costs of a Nissan Qasqai are going to be international in nature, and if you start imposing tariffs on car parts coming to the UK, and then a second set of tariffs is imposed when those cars leave for the EU, then no amount of devaluation will make mass car manufacturing in the UK economic.
David, just on the article, a few counter-arguments:
1. The RCP four way average is now 5.3%, not 6.7% (apologies if you re referring to a 2-way). There seems to be a swing back to Trump in some polls: Rasmussen - and, ad infinitum, I am interested in the trend, not whether they are pro-Republican - had Clinton +7% on Monday and Trump +2% yesterday. There are signs this might also be happening in some states (NH, the latest poll has HRC at +3%).
2. The RCP also does not have the LA Times poll. I know we have had the NYT article against it and the LA Times rebuttal of their points. I know Jack W says the NYT is fundamentally right; I am going to respectfully disagree as the LA Times point is a valid one, i.e. the weightings should even each other out. More importantly, though, this was the most accurate poll in 2012 and they have kept their methodology and so should not be discounted (RCP makes this very same point in an article).
3. HRC seems to be hitting a wall at around 45% even with national polls showing a lead of +7-8%. The same seems to be happening in the battle ground states. Where she increases her lead, it seems to be because Trump's share falls, not that her share rises. That at least raises the possibility Trump can regain these votes and / or there are "shy Trumpsters".
4. In the battleground states (NC, FL, NV, IA, OH), HRC has not pulled away despite this being "Trump['s worst week". In fact, as Nunu (I think) posted last night, postal votes from heavily-Democrat Cleveland do not look good and IA looks more like Trump. In NC, NV and FL, Trump is well within striking range of HRC.
5. You mention the potential for upsets like TX but there are a few potential Democrat issues. In VA - which I assume is for HRC - the latest poll shows her with only a +3% lead; there have been reports of the Democrats putting extra resources into Minnesota (which has been trending more Republican at a local level) because of concerns about the White vote.
6. Finally, on the reports, there are enough reports coming out suggesting that at least some of these accusers have links to the Democrats. In a highly partisan election like this, I can only see this as meaning that the story only appeals to hard core Democrats and others will perhaps put them to one side.
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
Yes, luxury, sports and racing cars have much more labour than more general cars, but the UK has a huge number of the world's more expensive cars manufactured here. My key points:
1. That while Nissan are complaining, other carmakers are hiring more staff and getting on with what they do, making cars and exporting them. 2. That the preferred solution is a level regulatory playing field of low corporate and payroll taxes, rather than singling out certain companies for special treatment.
Reducing taxes and government supporting manufacturing industry, when we have a 7% GDP deficit. No wonder sterling is tanking.
I warn you not to be old, I warn you not to be sick...
" And if Trump doesn’t win, some are even openly talking about violent rebellion and assassination, as fantastical and unhinged as that may seem. “If she’s in office, I hope we can start a coup. She should be in prison or shot. That’s how I feel about it,” Dan Bowman, a 50-year-old contractor, said of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee. "
The Boston Globe is totally in the Clinton tank - those revelations about Hillary wanting to reform Catholics and funding groups to cause an Arab Spring within their ranks must have gone down like warm sick.
It's mindbending.
And on those Clinton Foundation donations
#Charity begins at Home but Really? How 100% of the #Clintons' 2015 'charity' went to...themselves!!!! https://t.co/ZUfkfzqIzv
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
I assume he isn't talking about Formula 1 cars, even if McLaren don't exactly target the (mass) consumer market.
Yes, was referring to road cars - they're up to about 3,000 per year now and have just created I think 500 new skilled jobs in Woking. And I wasn't lucky enough to drive an F1 car, was one of these: the number refers to the horsepower! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLaren_650S
When we went to the Goodwood Festival of Speed a few years ago, McLaren had a carbon-fibre tub of one of their new cars on display (I think it was all they had at the time!). It was an object of beauty. I wanted one.
I bet the tub's about all I could afford to buy. I'd have to save up for the wheels, bodyshell, transmission, engine ...
Chelsea Clinton set up multiple email accounts under various aliases while working with the Clinton Foundation, one of which she used to solidify donations from left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer, according to leaked emails published Thursday.
Chelsea Clinton set up multiple email accounts under various aliases while working with the Clinton Foundation, one of which she used to solidify donations from left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer, according to leaked emails published Thursday.
If she's done something illegal then she should be prosecuted. Same goes for either of her parents.
But if I was a voter in a swing state, I'd still be compelled to vote for her over Trump. He is a danger to the world; she is merely a mediocre insider with an over-developed sense of entitlement. If she ended up being impeached, it wouldn't be a disaster.
FWIW, if I were a voter in a non-swing state, or if the election looked sufficiently comfortable for Hillary, I'd vote for Johnson as a protest against the poor standard of the top two (not that Johnson is any better really).
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
Yes, luxury, sports and racing cars have much more labour than more general cars, but the UK has a huge number of the world's more expensive cars manufactured here. My key points:
1. That while Nissan are complaining, other carmakers are hiring more staff and getting on with what they do, making cars and exporting them. 2. That the preferred solution is a level regulatory playing field of low corporate and payroll taxes, rather than singling out certain companies for special treatment.
I'm not going to disagree with that!
BUT. It is worth remembering that 80-90% of the costs of a Nissan Qasqai are going to be international in nature, and if you start imposing tariffs on car parts coming to the UK, and then a second set of tariffs is imposed when those cars leave for the EU, then no amount of devaluation will make mass car manufacturing in the UK economic.
I didn't think we'd disagree.
I also see your point about the supply chain, which looks very different for someone like Nissan when compared to someone like McLaren - the latter importing some raw carbon and titanium and turning out a £200k sports car from the factory.
It would make sense not to apply import tariffs to components for assembly into any manufactured product, but you and I are both in favour of keeping any tariffs to a minimum anyway. Of more concern is British parts being subject to tariffs when sent to the EU for final assembly, which are not in the control of the British government - think of the Airbus wings and Rolls aero engines.
But these buyback guarantees are only at the rate you bought them for - so you can't make a profit at zero spread. And I expect there still may be a commission. In any event, if your currency has risen in value you need to use a cash exchange rate to convert it back, and hey presto there's a spread.
It's a good point, but I'm not trying to make a profit, weird as that sounds. I'm using it as insurance against further falls.
4. In the battleground states (NC, FL, NV, IA, OH), HRC has not pulled away despite this being "Trump['s worst week". In fact, as Nunu (I think) posted last night, postal votes from heavily-Democrat Cleveland do not look good and IA looks more like Trump.
Chelsea Clinton set up multiple email accounts under various aliases while working with the Clinton Foundation, one of which she used to solidify donations from left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer, according to leaked emails published Thursday.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
Still plenty of high-tech engineering around. McLaren have doubled production this year and will be over the moon that their almost entirely British cars just got considerably cheaper than the Italian competition in the dollar-priced key markets of US, China and Middle East. I got to drive one the other week - bloody hell they are fast!
Formula One cars are largely hand made. Consumer cars, not do much. There's only about £500 of Uk labour in a £20,000 Nissan Qasqai.
I assume he isn't talking about Formula 1 cars, even if McLaren don't exactly target the (mass) consumer market.
Yes, was referring to road cars - they're up to about 3,000 per year now and have just created I think 500 new skilled jobs in Woking. And I wasn't lucky enough to drive an F1 car, was one of these: the number refers to the horsepower! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLaren_650S
When we went to the Goodwood Festival of Speed a few years ago, McLaren had a carbon-fibre tub of one of their new cars on display (I think it was all they had at the time!). It was an object of beauty. I wanted one.
I bet the tub's about all I could afford to buy. I'd have to save up for the wheels, bodyshell, transmission, engine ...
Here's a 'naked' one, with the body panels removed and an engineer explaining it to a rather smitten journo in Chris Harris. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OMB4TS6sCYo Stunning car, and a great example of the finest in British engineering.
"It will be a bloodbath’: 3 ‘militia’ men charged with WMD conspiracy, threatening Somali refugees"
“The only f***ing way this country’s ever going to get turned around is it will be a bloodbath and it will be a nasty, messy motherf***er. Unless a lot more people in this country wake up and smell the f***ing coffee and decide they want this country back ... we might be too late, if they do wake up ... I think we can get it done. But it ain’t going to be nothing nice about it”
"It will be a bloodbath’: 3 ‘militia’ men charged with WMD conspiracy, threatening Somali refugees"
“The only f***ing way this country’s ever going to get turned around is it will be a bloodbath and it will be a nasty, messy motherf***er. Unless a lot more people in this country wake up and smell the f***ing coffee and decide they want this country back ... we might be too late, if they do wake up ... I think we can get it done. But it ain’t going to be nothing nice about it”
David, just on the article, a few counter-arguments:
1. The RCP four way average is now 5.3%, not 6.7% (apologies if you re referring to a 2-way). [snip]
2. The RCP also does not have the LA Times poll. I know we have had the NYT article against it and the LA Times rebuttal of their points. I know Jack W says the NYT is fundamentally right; I am going to respectfully disagree as the LA Times point is a valid one, i.e. the weightings should even each other out. More importantly, though, this was the most accurate poll in 2012 [snip]
3. HRC seems to be hitting a wall at around 45% even with national polls showing a lead of +7-8%. The same seems to be happening in the battle ground states. [snip]
4. In the battleground states (NC, FL, NV, IA, OH), HRC has not pulled away despite this being "Trump's worst week". [snip]
5. You mention the potential for upsets like TX but there are a few potential Democrat issues. [e.g. VA / Minnesota] [snip]
6. Finally, on the reports, there are enough reports coming out suggesting that at least some of these accusers have links to the Democrats. [snip]
Cheers for the reply, and a quick response:
1. I was indeed looking at the 2-way. Is this a more reliable guide than the 4-way? I think so because when it comes down to it, I think potential third-party swing voters will be squeezed where it matters to keep their most disliked main candidate out.
2. When I was researching the article, I used both the RCP and HuffPost selections. Both seem to point in the same direction with the great majority of polls at state and national levels reinforcing each other, I'm sceptical against going against so strong a trend.
3. Clinton does seem to have a 45% ceiling in the 4-way polls but Trump seems to have a 40% ceiling - unsurprising given his negatives. As long as Hillary is above that, she's safe.
4. I think much the same applies as for (3). In one sense, I agree that it's quite close; in another, if Trump has a low ceiling then as long as Hillary is above it then she'll win. Even if the polls haven't moved heavily against Trump, this narrative isn't going to move them to him, which is what he needs.
5. Yep. There are potential upsets on both sides. FWIW, I doubt that HRC will get close in TX. Likewise, we have to expect the odd outlier/dodgy poll that benefits Trump. Until I see a trend riding off a reason, I'd be inclined to disregard spiky results.
6. Even if that's true, it's unlikely to shift the polls to Trump. He did say what he's recorded as saying. You're right about the depths of the divisions. His problem is that he has to win people over that divide, which isn't going to happen given his current campaigning.
And therein lies Trump's problem: how does he shatter the ceiling he's trapped beneath and needs to get through?
P.s. I also forgot leadership - the allied leadership systems allowed more independent action (at strategic level) whereas the Germans were increasingly hampered by one man's erratic and controlling ways. However at battlefield level it was considered the German setup was superior.
ar.
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No. It is because we've always been the party for the country. And for the last 100 years the Union. Sometimes in our history this has been at expense of the people, granted, but there is a deep seated confidence within Tory party members that the nation is worthy of support, should not be taken lightly and should definitely not be seen as the enemy.
I can well understand the Liberal mindset - that a community of nations is more valuable than a single nation. I just wholeheartedly disagree with it.
Similarly I can understand the old fashioned Labour mindset - that a community of people is more valuable than the nations that they're in conditions of relative peace (i.e. the Labour party were happy to join the National Govt to fight Germany in 1940 because Fascism was attacking us) . I just think it simplistic and overly idealistic given the frailties of the human condition.
What I simply do not understand is the current Labour party leadership - who see the awful underdogs as always better than the sometimes self interested West. Nor do the people of this country, it seems. Mores the better.
It's a good thing about this site that most of us at least try and think our way around the views of our opponents.
My take on your last point is that Labour was born out of a class struggle back when its supporters were genuinely oppressed and disenfranchised. This informs much of the party's culture and identity, particularly on the left (ties into the birth of communism, before it became discredited). Their attraction to the underdogs in various conflicts around the world is not so much that they are anti-west but that these are situations where their view of politics still 'works'; the problem they face back home is that such a view of politics isn't appropriate anymore: people aren't oppressed in the same way, people value individualism more, the interests of the 'disadvantaged' conflict (ethnic voters v wwc etc) and the dimensions of power and privilege have fragmented rather than simply being along class lines.
This is a series of very good points - very well made. Thanks!
P.s. I also forgot leadership - the allied leadership systems allowed more independent action (at strategic level) whereas the Germans were increasingly hampered by one man's erratic and controlling ways. However at battlefield level it was considered the German setup was superior.
ar.
-)
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No. It is because we've always been the party for the country. And for the last 100 years the Union. Sometimes in our history this has been at expense of the people, granted, but there is a deep seated confidence within Tory party members that the nation is worthy of support, should not be taken lightly and should definitely not be seen as the enemy.
Similarly I can understand the old fashioned Labour mindset - that a community of people is more valuable than the nations that they're in conditions of relative peace (i.e. the Labour party were happy to join the National Govt to fight Germany in 1940 because Fascism was attacking us) . I just think it simplistic and overly idealistic given the frailties of the human condition.
What I simply do not understand is the current Labour party leadership - who see the awful underdogs as always better than the sometimes self interested West. Nor do the people of this country, it seems. Mores the better.
It's a good thing about this site that most of us at least try and think our way around the views of our opponents.
My take on your last point is that Labour was born out of a class struggle back when its supporters were genuinely oppressed and disenfranchised. This informs much of the party's culture and identity, particularly on the left (ties into the birth of communism, before it became discredited). Their attraction to the underdogs in various conflicts around the world is not so much that they are anti-west but that these are situations where their view of politics still 'works'; the problem they face back home is that such a view of politics isn't appropriate anymore: people aren't oppressed in the same way, people value individualism more, the interests of the 'disadvantaged' conflict (ethnic voters v wwc etc) and the dimensions of power and privilege have fragmented rather than simply being along class lines.
This is a series of very good points - very well made. Thanks!
Indeed it is. All I would add is that anger drives more of us to the ballot box than hope, gratitude or anything else
There appears to be a curious contradiction in the betting markets as regards the number of Electoral College Votes which Hillary Clinton is likely to win. Whilst Sporting Index has her at a mid spread of 327 ECVs (Sell at 322 - Buy at 332), the corresponding 30 vote band in which this is contained, i.e. 300 - 329 votes is only the third favourite band with the bookies, behind the 330 - 359 vote favourite and 360 - 389 second favourite. Even curiouser is that BetfairEx has her some way ahead of the conventional bookies at 6.8 decimal to win between 300 - 329 votes and yet curiouser still is that over the past 24 hours I've asked for and obtained a price of 7.4 with the exchange, which equates to 7.08 net of their 5% commission. That looks like value to me, but DYOR.
Completely off thread, but with the footballer Evans, why didn't they just let him back to his club? He served his time.
It would have saved the victim a huge amount of grief and shown that Britain rehabilitates. Why did people want him to lose his career on top of his custodial sentence?
" And if Trump doesn’t win, some are even openly talking about violent rebellion and assassination, as fantastical and unhinged as that may seem. “If she’s in office, I hope we can start a coup. She should be in prison or shot. That’s how I feel about it,” Dan Bowman, a 50-year-old contractor, said of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee. "
The Boston Globe is totally in the Clinton tank - those revelations about Hillary wanting to reform Catholics and funding groups to cause an Arab Spring within their ranks must have gone down like warm sick.
It's mindbending.
And on those Clinton Foundation donations
#Charity begins at Home but Really? How 100% of the #Clintons' 2015 'charity' went to...themselves!!!! https://t.co/ZUfkfzqIzv
At least the Clintons' scam was honestly named. Lock them up.
David, just on the article, a few counter-arguments:
1. The RCP four way average is now 5.3%, not 6.7% (apologies if you re referring to a 2-way). There seems to be a swing back to Trump in some polls: Rasmussen - and, ad infinitum, I am interested in the trend, not whether they are pro-Republican - had Clinton +7% on Monday and Trump +2% yesterday. There are signs this might also be happening in some states (NH, the latest poll has HRC at +3%).
2. The RCP also does not have the LA Times poll. I know we have had the NYT article against it and the LA Times rebuttal of their points. I know Jack W says the NYT is fundamentally right; I am going to respectfully disagree as the LA Times point is a valid one, i.e. the weightings should even each other out. More importantly, though, this was the most accurate poll in 2012 and they have kept their methodology and so should not be discounted (RCP makes this very same point in an article).
3. HRC seems to be hitting a wall at around 45% even with national polls showing a lead of +7-8%. The same seems to be happening in the battle ground states. Where she increases her lead, it seems to be because Trump's share falls, not that her share rises. That at least raises the possibility Trump can regain these votes and / or there are "shy Trumpsters".
4. In the battleground states (NC, FL, NV, IA, OH), HRC has not pulled away despite this being "Trump['s worst week". In fact, as Nunu (I think) posted last night, postal votes from heavily-Democrat Cleveland do not look good and IA looks more like Trump. In NC, NV and FL, Trump is well within striking range of HRC.
5. You mention the potential for upsets like TX but there are a few potential Democrat issues. In VA - which I assume is for HRC - the latest poll shows her with only a +3% lead; there have been reports of the Democrats putting extra resources into Minnesota (which has been trending more Republican at a local level) because of concerns about the White vote.
6. Finally, on the reports, there are enough reports coming out suggesting that at least some of these accusers have links to the Democrats. In a highly partisan election like this, I can only see this as meaning that the story only appeals to hard core Democrats and others will perhaps put them to one side.
Why do you think the Cleveland numbers are so bad? What kind of city is it demographics wise etc.
Buy d.c suburbs are good, shell win Virginia easily.
P.s. I also forgot leadership - the allied leadership systems allowed more independent action (at strategic level) whereas the Germans were increasingly hampered by one man's erratic and controlling ways. However at battlefield level it was considered the German setup was superior.
ar.
-)
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No. It is because we've always been the party for the country. And for the last 100 years the Union. Sometimes in our history this has been at expense of the people, granted, but there is a deep seated confidence within Tory party members that the nation is worthy of support, should not be taken lightly and should definitely not be seen as the enemy.
It's a good thing about this site that most of us at least try and think our way around the views of our opponents.
My take on your last point is that Labour was born out of a class struggle back when its supporters were genuinely oppressed and disenfranchised. This informs much of the party's culture and identity, particularly on the left (ties into the birth of communism, before it became discredited). Their attraction to the underdogs in various conflicts around the world is not so much that they are anti-west but that these are situations where their view of politics still 'works'; the problem they face back home is that such a view of politics isn't appropriate anymore: people aren't oppressed in the same way, people value individualism more, the interests of the 'disadvantaged' conflict (ethnic voters v wwc etc) and the dimensions of power and privilege have fragmented rather than simply being along class lines.
This is a series of very good points - very well made. Thanks!
While I agree that there a lot of good points there, the social structure is different now. Where are the mines, the mills, the steelworks, the other big groupings of workers which made combination of workers possible, and indeed, desirable? Where once there was a steel works or whatever, employing hundreds, mainly men, all of whom lived within walking or easy cycling distance and used the same pubs and clubs, there are now “light industrial” units, each employing a few people, often of both sexes, who may well travel some distance to work. Light indutsrial unit A may have crap working practices and procedures, but B may well not have, so it’s not as easy to make common cause.
Completely off thread, but with the footballer Evans, why didn't they just let him back to his club? He served his time.
It would have saved the victim a huge amount of grief and shown that Britain rehabilitates. Why did people want him to lose his career on top of his custodial sentence?
You know, I'm beginning to warm to Trump. He reminds me of the Benny Hill Show back in the day. Not sure who Hillary reminds me of?
I actually was quite looking forward to Trump winning the nomination because I knew we would get some entertainment value from it all. But actually I don't enjoy any of it, I find the whole Trump thing has gone way too far; it's uncomfortable and worrying.
Who could Hillary be? She could be Mrs. Slocombe in Are You Being Served? Maybe the long suffering wife who is married to Sid James from one of the Carry on Movies. Or she could be one of the duracell bunnies ratatatatting endlessly on their little drum. Or she could be one of the little Chipmunks from Alvin and the Chipmunks...one of my guilty pleasures.....
Completely off thread, but with the footballer Evans, why didn't they just let him back to his club? He served his time.
It would have saved the victim a huge amount of grief and shown that Britain rehabilitates. Why did people want him to lose his career on top of his custodial sentence?
Because of virtue signalling.
Awful, isn't it.
Sexual behaviour is the new McCarthyism...the tabloids rule.....
P.s. I also forgot leadership - the allied leadership systems allowed more independent action (at strategic level) whereas the Germans were increasingly hampered by one man's erratic and controlling ways. However at battlefield level it was considered the German setup was superior.
ar.
-)
...
...
...
No. It is because we've always been the party for the country. And for the last 100 years the Union. Sometimes in our history this has been at expense of the people, granted, but there is a deep seated confidence within Tory party members that the nation ...
It's a good thing about this site that most of us at least try and think our way around the views of our opponents.
My take on your last point is that Labour was born out of a class struggle back when its supporters were genuinely oppressed and disenfranchised. This informs much of the party's culture and identity, particularly on the left (ties into the birth of communism, before it became discredited). Their attraction to the underdogs in various conflicts around the world is not so much that they are anti-west but that these are situations where their view of politics still 'works'; the problem they face back home is that such a view of politics isn't appropriate anymore: people aren't oppressed in the same way, people value individualism more, the interests of the 'disadvantaged' conflict (ethnic voters v wwc etc) and the dimensions of power and privilege have fragmented rather than simply being along class lines.
This is a series of very good points - very well made. Thanks!
While I agree that there a lot of good points there, the social structure is different now. Where are the mines, the mills, the steelworks, the other big groupings of workers which made combination of workers possible, and indeed, desirable? Where once there was a steel works or whatever, employing hundreds, mainly men, all of whom lived within walking or easy cycling distance and used the same pubs and clubs, there are now “light industrial” units, each employing a few people, often of both sexes, who may well travel some distance to work. Light indutsrial unit A may have crap working practices and procedures, but B may well not have, so it’s not as easy to make common cause.
All good things Mr OKC - perhaps there is no common cause between them. All in all, just another reason why Labour has had its day.
My take on your last point is that Labour was born out of a class struggle back when its supporters were genuinely oppressed and disenfranchised. This informs much of the party's culture and identity, particularly on the left (ties into the birth of communism, before it became discredited). Their attraction to the underdogs in various conflicts around the world is not so much that they are anti-west but that these are situations where their view of politics still 'works'; the problem they face back home is that such a view of politics isn't appropriate anymore: people aren't oppressed in the same way, people value individualism more, the interests of the 'disadvantaged' conflict (ethnic voters v wwc etc) and the dimensions of power and privilege have fragmented rather than simply being along class lines.
This is a series of very good points - very well made. Thanks!
While I agree that there a lot of good points there, the social structure is different now. Where are the mines, the mills, the steelworks, the other big groupings of workers which made combination of workers possible, and indeed, desirable? Where once there was a steel works or whatever, employing hundreds, mainly men, all of whom lived within walking or easy cycling distance and used the same pubs and clubs, there are now “light industrial” units, each employing a few people, often of both sexes, who may well travel some distance to work. Light indutsrial unit A may have crap working practices and procedures, but B may well not have, so it’s not as easy to make common cause.
I agree, and would see that as an amplification of my point. The Labour left likes all these foreign campaigns against oppression because politically it's so easy for them to apply their historical 'fight for the collective interests of the oppressed' mindset to them.
With the situation as you describe back home, plus the growing variety of individualist views within these groups, plus those with power no longer being a homogenous 'class' to oppose, Labour's problem is that its whole philosophy and approach to politics doesn't really work very well in the 21st century. Hence the left clings to its traditional beliefs and the moderates can't really work out what they believe or why.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Completely off thread, but with the footballer Evans, why didn't they just let him back to his club? He served his time.
It would have saved the victim a huge amount of grief and shown that Britain rehabilitates. Why did people want him to lose his career on top of his custodial sentence?
Initially his club said they would have him back and see if he could make it...then the twitter mob threatened all sorts, the media jumped on board, celebs threatened to boycotts and campaigns, and his club decided to pass.
Then any other club who expressed an interest in giving him a trial got the same treatment.
The mob logic was, 1) he is a rapist, therefore should never be allowed such a privileged position and is a role model, 2) he hasn't said sorry (duh because he was appealing the verdict) and 3) he was a danger to young girls who came to the games.
The thing that annoyed me the most, there are footballers who have done similar or worse and none of this. Lee Hughes killed somebody, and after prison he restarted his career with no media outrage.
Actually, there seems to be decent evidence for the fairly extensive use of the amphetamines Pervitin and Benzedrine by each side during WW2, but not much that it contributed massively to any military successes or disasters. There are some gated medical articles referenced via Wikipedia which I can't access, but this post does have some footnoted links (including to an accessible 1946 medical journal) http://lmharchive.ca/benzedrine-sulphate-used-in-war-operations-by-brook-durham/
US pilots are stil officially required to use Adderall on certain missions...
Completely off thread, but with the footballer Evans, why didn't they just let him back to his club? He served his time.
It would have saved the victim a huge amount of grief and shown that Britain rehabilitates. Why did people want him to lose his career on top of his custodial sentence?
Initially his club said they would have him back and see if he could make it...then the twitter mob threatened all sorts, the media jumped on board, celebs threatened to boycotts and campaigns, and his club decided to pass.
Then any other club who expressed an interest in giving him a trial got the same treatment.
The mob logic was, 1) he is a rapist, therefore should never be allowed such a privileged position and is a role model, 2) he hasn't said sorry (duh because he was appealing the verdict) and 3) he was a danger to young girls who came to the games.
The thing that annoyed me the most, there are footballers who have done similar or worse and none of this. Lee Hughes killed somebody, and after prison he restarted his career with no media outrage.
Thank you...a very sensible response. I'm sure that 95% of the public would agree with you too.
I had the misfortune to drive past the car that Lee Hughes hit later that day.
Completely off thread, but with the footballer Evans, why didn't they just let him back to his club? He served his time.
It would have saved the victim a huge amount of grief and shown that Britain rehabilitates. Why did people want him to lose his career on top of his custodial sentence?
Initially his club said they would have him back and see if he could make it...then the twitter mob threatened all sorts, the media jumped on board, celebs threatened to boycotts and campaigns, and his club decided to pass.
Then any other club who expressed an interest in giving him a trial got the same treatment.
The mob logic was, 1) he is a rapist, therefore should never be allowed such a privileged position and is a role model, 2) he hasn't said sorry (duh because he was appealing the verdict) and 3) he was a danger to young girls who came to the games.
The thing that annoyed me the most, there are footballers who have done similar or worse and none of this. Lee Hughes killed somebody, and after prison he restarted his career with no media outrage.
Thank you...a very sensible response. I'm sure that 95% of the public would agree with you too.
I had the misfortune to drive past the car that Lee Hughes hit later that day.
95% of twitter certainly don't.....
My take, the guy is a total scumbag who had a particular entitled attitude towards women. But not exactly shocking that there are footballers like that, especially given the number of (super) injunction stories we have seen leaked over the take few years. A few of them have even been made England captain.
Reading the evidence presented at the retrial, it is not surprising that the jury took only a couple of hours to find him innocent.
There is no trend in Rasmussen. It is a garbage pollster. They had Hilary in +7 at the same time as Trump getting 20%+ of the Black vote.
This is basically impossible.
Their full cross tabs are hidden from public view.
Let when is it a poll that has HRC at, let's say, +7%, there is no questioning of its methodology and it is treated as the Gold Standard, even when there is no detail on their crosstabs.
At least be objective when it comes to which polls are garbage.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
"The other day I'm standing at my podium and she walks in front of me, right? She walks in front of me and when she walked in front of me. Believe me, I wasn't impressed, but she walks in front of me."
I probably shouldn't post this but what the heck - it might be important as regards the possibility of a 2017 election.
From this week's Conservative bulletin:
JOB ADVERT - Campaign Manager, the Conservative Party – several roles.
Overview: This is a “sleeves-rolled-up”, hands-on, do whatever needs to be done, city-based, campaigning role requiring substantial flexibility and a can-do attitude as, even over short periods of time, political and campaigning priorities can develop and change rapidly. This role is ideally suited to an enthusiastic and ambitious on-the-ground campaigner who enjoys a wide-ranging role. Working hours will of necessity require to be varied and flexible. Campaign Managers must have a flexible approach and be in a position to stay overnight away from home. It is essential to be both a car driver and a car owner.
Location:
Birmingham The Black Country Leeds Liverpool Leicester Manchester Newcastle Nottingham Sheffield
the Ched Evans case was depressing. Young man has more money than sense, girl with .... what used to be called a lack of moral sense. Both get pissed, she wakes up and is pissed off because of video (I didn't follow the trial closely, so I'm guessing).
I sometimes wonder what all the sixties groupies got up to? Did the Stones etc have someone on the door even checking birth certificates? Not just then, but even up to the present. Are alcohol or other drugs being taken? Statutory rape by the hundred if that's the case.
I probably shouldn't post this but what the heck - it might be important as regards the possibility of a 2017 election.
From this week's Conservative bulletin:
JOB ADVERT - Campaign Manager, the Conservative Party – several roles.
Overview: This is a “sleeves-rolled-up”, hands-on, do whatever needs to be done, city-based, campaigning role requiring substantial flexibility and a can-do attitude as, even over short periods of time, political and campaigning priorities can develop and change rapidly. This role is ideally suited to an enthusiastic and ambitious on-the-ground campaigner who enjoys a wide-ranging role. Working hours will of necessity require to be varied and flexible. Campaign Managers must have a flexible approach and be in a position to stay overnight away from home. It is essential to be both a car driver and a car owner.
Location:
Birmingham The Black Country Leeds Liverpool Leicester Manchester Newcastle Nottingham Sheffield
Some pretty optimistic places on that list surely?
1. I was indeed looking at the 2-way. Is this a more reliable guide than the 4-way? I think so because when it comes down to it, I think potential third-party swing voters will be squeezed where it matters to keep their most disliked main candidate out.
2. When I was researching the article, I used both the RCP and HuffPost selections. Both seem to point in the same direction with the great majority of polls at state and national levels reinforcing each other, I'm sceptical against going against so strong a trend.
3. Clinton does seem to have a 45% ceiling in the 4-way polls but Trump seems to have a 40% ceiling - unsurprising given his negatives. As long as Hillary is above that, she's safe.
4. I think much the same applies as for (3). In one sense, I agree that it's quite close; in another, if Trump has a low ceiling then as long as Hillary is above it then she'll win. Even if the polls haven't moved heavily against Trump, this narrative isn't going to move them to him, which is what he needs.
5. Yep. There are potential upsets on both sides. FWIW, I doubt that HRC will get close in TX. Likewise, we have to expect the odd outlier/dodgy poll that benefits Trump. Until I see a trend riding off a reason, I'd be inclined to disregard spiky results.
6. Even if that's true, it's unlikely to shift the polls to Trump. He did say what he's recorded as saying. You're right about the depths of the divisions. His problem is that he has to win people over that divide, which isn't going to happen given his current campaigning.
And therein lies Trump's problem: how does he shatter the ceiling he's trapped beneath and needs to get through?
Thanks David. A few comments.
My betting view is that this will be a low turnout election but the demographics will look different from 2012 - Trump's strategy seems to be a variation of Blair's 1997 strategy over here i.e. fire your own base talking about how wicked HRC is and then try to dampen the enthusiasm of certain strongly pro-Democratic groups - namely African-Americans and young people - to vote by claiming that nothing will really change with HRC and / or that she is a crook.
One thread that was run on here post-GE said that the polls were right but we were looking at the wrong poll i.e. we should have been viewing the who is the best PM results. I think this election's equivalent will be "do you think the country is on the right track?" Given (a) net score of +35% to +40% say it is not and (b) HRC is the continuity candidate, I really do not see how this helps HRC.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Indeed. Heir to Thatcher my arse. Or should that be ar*e?
Actually, there seems to be decent evidence for the fairly extensive use of the amphetamines Pervitin and Benzedrine by each side during WW2, but not much that it contributed massively to any military successes or disasters. There are some gated medical articles referenced via Wikipedia which I can't access, but this post does have some footnoted links (including to an accessible 1946 medical journal) http://lmharchive.ca/benzedrine-sulphate-used-in-war-operations-by-brook-durham/
US pilots are stil officially required to use Adderall on certain missions...
Interesting article in the Spectator arguing that we shouldn't be too smug about Trump, since our politics is heading the same way. The evidence cited:
- Tory members would have voted for Leadsome had they been given the chance - The Dems managed to stop Sanders whilst Labour voted Corbyn in, twice - The UKIP brawler is the front-runner for next leader - Boris - Brexit
I probably shouldn't post this but what the heck - it might be important as regards the possibility of a 2017 election.
From this week's Conservative bulletin:
JOB ADVERT - Campaign Manager, the Conservative Party – several roles.
Overview: This is a “sleeves-rolled-up”, hands-on, do whatever needs to be done, city-based, campaigning role requiring substantial flexibility and a can-do attitude as, even over short periods of time, political and campaigning priorities can develop and change rapidly. This role is ideally suited to an enthusiastic and ambitious on-the-ground campaigner who enjoys a wide-ranging role. Working hours will of necessity require to be varied and flexible. Campaign Managers must have a flexible approach and be in a position to stay overnight away from home. It is essential to be both a car driver and a car owner.
Location:
Birmingham The Black Country Leeds Liverpool Leicester Manchester Newcastle Nottingham Sheffield
Some pretty optimistic places on that list surely?
Surely more a comment on their finances than their political good sense?
I probably shouldn't post this but what the heck - it might be important as regards the possibility of a 2017 election.
From this week's Conservative bulletin:
JOB ADVERT - Campaign Manager, the Conservative Party – several roles.
Overview: This is a “sleeves-rolled-up”, hands-on, do whatever needs to be done, city-based, campaigning role requiring substantial flexibility and a can-do attitude as, even over short periods of time, political and campaigning priorities can develop and change rapidly. This role is ideally suited to an enthusiastic and ambitious on-the-ground campaigner who enjoys a wide-ranging role. Working hours will of necessity require to be varied and flexible. Campaign Managers must have a flexible approach and be in a position to stay overnight away from home. It is essential to be both a car driver and a car owner.
Location:
Birmingham The Black Country Leeds Liverpool Leicester Manchester Newcastle Nottingham Sheffield
Some pretty optimistic places on that list surely?
I'd imagine that CCHQ are a pretty optimistic bunch at the moment!
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
The government also needs to be a little bit careful, as the WTO 1995 Treaty bans certain kinds of subsidies.
I probably shouldn't post this but what the heck - it might be important as regards the possibility of a 2017 election.
From this week's Conservative bulletin:
JOB ADVERT - Campaign Manager, the Conservative Party – several roles.
Overview: This is a “sleeves-rolled-up”, hands-on, do whatever needs to be done, city-based, campaigning role requiring substantial flexibility and a can-do attitude as, even over short periods of time, political and campaigning priorities can develop and change rapidly. This role is ideally suited to an enthusiastic and ambitious on-the-ground campaigner who enjoys a wide-ranging role. Working hours will of necessity require to be varied and flexible. Campaign Managers must have a flexible approach and be in a position to stay overnight away from home. It is essential to be both a car driver and a car owner.
Location:
Birmingham The Black Country Leeds Liverpool Leicester Manchester Newcastle Nottingham Sheffield
Some pretty optimistic places on that list surely?
Surely more a comment on their finances than their political good sense?
A former (ie I haven’t seen him in years) acquaintance was Tory Agent in Liverpool around 1980. Don’t suppose he had it down as a success on his CV.
Actually, there seems to be decent evidence for the fairly extensive use of the amphetamines Pervitin and Benzedrine by each side during WW2, but not much that it contributed massively to any military successes or disasters. There are some gated medical articles referenced via Wikipedia which I can't access, but this post does have some footnoted links (including to an accessible 1946 medical journal) http://lmharchive.ca/benzedrine-sulphate-used-in-war-operations-by-brook-durham/
US pilots are stil officially required to use Adderall on certain missions...
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
It's in the Mail! You don't have to be a soothsayer to see what May is driving at:
This Government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future. [...] We will continue to work with Nissan as we develop the environment for competitiveness of the automotive industry here in the UK to ensure its success.
'right conditions', 'environment for competitiveness' - the unadulterated language of Bennite interventionism. I can't see the controversy. Surely this is in line with May's statist instincts?
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
That Brexit industrial strategy in full: Mushrooms, jam, and bottled air.
People who claim to be Conservative supporters sneering at wealth creation.
I wonder when government subsidised, debt funded wealth consumption became more moral than wealth creation and living within your means ?
It explains why Britain has had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
It's in the Mail! You don't have to be a soothsayer to see what May is driving at:
This Government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future. [...] We will continue to work with Nissan as we develop the environment for competitiveness of the automotive industry here in the UK to ensure its success.
'right conditions', 'environment for competitiveness' - the unadulterated language of Bennite interventionism. I can't see the controversy. Surely this is in line with May's statist instincts?
You would be on stronger grounds if you had condemned the government borrowing hundreds of billions to subsidise wealth consumption.
Triple lock pensions are government interventionism, Help-To-Buy is government interventionism, HS2 is government interventionism etc etc etc.
There is no trend in Rasmussen. It is a garbage pollster. They had Hilary in +7 at the same time as Trump getting 20%+ of the Black vote.
This is basically impossible.
Their full cross tabs are hidden from public view.
Let when is it a poll that has HRC at, let's say, +7%, there is no questioning of its methodology and it is treated as the Gold Standard, even when there is no detail on their crosstabs.
At least be objective when it comes to which polls are garbage.
I have been completely consistent in saying Rasmussen is garbage, pretty much any comment I have about Rasmussen is about how garbage it is. I have said this for as long as American polling has been mentioned
Just following up on our discussion this morning, here is the right-wing conservative who led the attempt to get rid of Churchill as late as July 1942 - the second no confidence vote that was tabled in Churchill's government during that year:
" And if Trump doesn’t win, some are even openly talking about violent rebellion and assassination, as fantastical and unhinged as that may seem. “If she’s in office, I hope we can start a coup. She should be in prison or shot. That’s how I feel about it,” Dan Bowman, a 50-year-old contractor, said of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee. "
We're either about to see a mushroom shortage or production is being shifted to British suppliers:
' Ireland's mushroom industry provides a stark warning to the rest of the country's economy about the damage a sustained weakness in sterling could inflict on Irish exporters, the sector most vulnerable to the impact of Brexit.
Mushroom growers rely on the UK for 80pc of sales and have been losing money since Britain's vote to quit the European Union in June sent sterling tumbling. It has now lost 19pc of its value against the euro, wiping out the Irish producers' profit margins.
Five of Ireland's 60 mushroom farms have so far gone out of business since the referendum, including two this week. '
Or, to turn it around, British mushroom farms are doing well against foreign imports, due to the devaluation of the pound. This should lead over time to more jobs in Britain as we become more self-sustainable in food.
So we're moving from an economy based on high-tech engineering and financial services, to an agrarian economy.
Thinks.
Backs away nervously from the crazy people...
I too have my doubts. Agriculture and fisheries represent only a tiny fraction of GDP. I can't see the subset of mushroom harvesting being very significant even within that. To turn mushroom harvesting into a major economic driver might take some work. Perhaps the government could begin with a massive 'Eat British mushrooms' campaign or even pass legislation to make mushrooms a compulsory part of the diet. I don't know.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Nissan Sunderland is deeply symbolic. The government will do whatever it takes to keep production going until at least after the next election.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
It's in the Mail! You don't have to be a soothsayer to see what May is driving at: This Government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future. [...] .......... 'right conditions', 'environment for competitiveness' - the unadulterated language of Bennite interventionism. I can't see the controversy. Surely this is in line with May's statist instincts?
Stark (raving mad) Dawning. Just silly spin from you. "supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry" = What everyone should expect from every UK Govt. A vanilla statement that is all motherhood and apple pie. No specifics just intentions.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
The danger is that the government gets picked off by a bunch of special interest groups over the next 12 months, as it is desperate not to have any bad Brexit news. If I was looking to open a factory in the UK, I reckon I could get some pretty sweet subsidies.
Longer term, the last thing you want is for the UK government to be in hoc to big businesses, micromanaging everything.
Fortunately we're a long way from that. But I reserve the right to be worried.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
It's in the Mail! You don't have to be a soothsayer to see what May is driving at: This Government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future. [...] .......... 'right conditions', 'environment for competitiveness' - the unadulterated language of Bennite interventionism. I can't see the controversy. Surely this is in line with May's statist instincts?
Stark (raving mad) Dawning. Just silly spin from you. "supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry" = What everyone should expect from every UK Govt. A vanilla statement that is all motherhood and apple pie. No specifics just intentions.
One might consider that vanilla statements unsupported by action or policy are becoming this government's USP?
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
The danger is that the government gets picked off by a bunch of special interest groups over the next 12 months, as it is desperate not to have any bad Brexit news. If I was looking to open a factory in the UK, I reckon I could get some pretty sweet subsidies.
Longer term, the last thing you want is for the UK government to be in hoc to big businesses, micromanaging everything.
Fortunately we're a long way from that. But I reserve the right to be worried.
We've been in that state ever since government by photstunt started.
I doubt that industrial subsidies ever amount to more than a few billion (and Nissan have dipped into that for 30+ years) and some have even been money well invested (Nissan again).
The damaging subsidies and tax breaks are the ones that governments use to bribe voters to keep consuming.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
It's in the Mail! You don't have to be a soothsayer to see what May is driving at: This Government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future. [...] .......... 'right conditions', 'environment for competitiveness' - the unadulterated language of Bennite interventionism. I can't see the controversy. Surely this is in line with May's statist instincts?
Stark (raving mad) Dawning. Just silly spin from you. "supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry" = What everyone should expect from every UK Govt. A vanilla statement that is all motherhood and apple pie. No specifics just intentions.
One might consider that vanilla statements unsupported by action or policy are becoming this government's USP?
In the short term fine. But of course substance has to be added.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Please provide a link to the facts of what has been promised to Nissan that is not also available to other car manufacturers operating here or considering manufacturing here. Ideally not the Remainiacs at the FT.
The danger is that the government gets picked off by a bunch of special interest groups over the next 12 months, as it is desperate not to have any bad Brexit news. If I was looking to open a factory in the UK, I reckon I could get some pretty sweet subsidies. Longer term, the last thing you want is for the UK government to be in hoc to big businesses, micromanaging everything. Fortunately we're a long way from that. But I reserve the right to be worried.
Yes to all that. I do have concerns about the statist meddling hints that have come out from Mrs May and her appointment of Greg Clarke* to Business dept. But she has to be given a few months more to set things out.
*He that quotes the thoughts of Polly Toynbee as a good thing. Probably the wetest Conservative in the Govt.
The Nissan thing is deeply depressing. I can't believe that post-Brexit a Tory government has been reduced to picking winners 1970s style. May is the Tories' Sunny Jim.
Nissan Sunderland is deeply symbolic. The government will do whatever it takes to keep production going until at least after the next election.
Nissan Sunderland is the most productive part of its european empire.
Comments
The fact it isn't commonly known makes me think it might have been only a small part of the army, for small periods. Unless it was done in secret, with the drug mixed into foods. But that would have other disadvantages.
http://thetimes.co.uk/article/130d7600-8fab-11e6-91d4-91c7eaaf09d6
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/787248167385440256
If you then take away the sleaze and constant media attacks, then you're left with a very hung parliament. While the LDs would be king makers, a coalition with a Corbyn Labour party is unlikely.
Portillo PM by 1998?
Bill Mitchell
"All accusers are to be believed..."
Almost like the Salem Witch Trials.
What you need to know about the Latino vote in the 2016 election https://t.co/jJSn0UWeMF https://t.co/hY3hXbPVl3
https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/294543/blitzed/
iirc though some leading war historians have questioned it. For one there should be more evidence of mass production of the meds.
Furthermore, the speed of the German advance in May 1940 does not require the mass use of amphetamines to explain it. Units were not moving that fast for that long. On to of which no drug on earth could keep soldiers going for weeks, and that is the time scale we are talking about (the German advance kicked off on 10 May 1940)
Frankly, I think the story is a nonsense.
Chelsea Clinton set up multiple email accounts under various aliases while working with the Clinton Foundation, one of which she used to solidify donations from left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer, according to leaked emails published Thursday.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/14/leaked-chelsea-used-fake-names-while-raising-big-bucks-for-clinton-foundation/
" And if Trump doesn’t win, some are even openly talking about violent rebellion and assassination, as fantastical and unhinged as that may seem.
“If she’s in office, I hope we can start a coup. She should be in prison or shot. That’s how I feel about it,” Dan Bowman, a 50-year-old contractor, said of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee. "
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/10/15/donald-trump-warnings-conspiracy-rig-election-are-stoking-anger-among-his-followers/LcCY6e0QOcfH8VdeK9UdsM/story.html
Matthew Harris
Pressed on who the Labour hierarchy trusts more: Moscow or Washington? John McDonnell replies: "I'm not going to get into that now"
Well that's a surprise and newscycle fodder
Also, the Guardian has a lengthy review of the book and the man behind it. To be honest it doesn't exactly overload the guy with credibility.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/sep/25/blitzed-norman-ohler-adolf-hitler-nazi-drug-abuse-interview
1. That while Nissan are complaining, other carmakers are hiring more staff and getting on with what they do, making cars and exporting them.
2. That the preferred solution is a level regulatory playing field of low corporate and payroll taxes, rather than singling out certain companies for special treatment.
And I wasn't lucky enough to drive an F1 car, was one of these: the number refers to the horsepower! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLaren_650S
BUT. It is worth remembering that 80-90% of the costs of a Nissan Qasqai are going to be international in nature, and if you start imposing tariffs on car parts coming to the UK, and then a second set of tariffs is imposed when those cars leave for the EU, then no amount of devaluation will make mass car manufacturing in the UK economic.
1. The RCP four way average is now 5.3%, not 6.7% (apologies if you re referring to a 2-way). There seems to be a swing back to Trump in some polls: Rasmussen - and, ad infinitum, I am interested in the trend, not whether they are pro-Republican - had Clinton +7% on Monday and Trump +2% yesterday. There are signs this might also be happening in some states (NH, the latest poll has HRC at +3%).
2. The RCP also does not have the LA Times poll. I know we have had the NYT article against it and the LA Times rebuttal of their points. I know Jack W says the NYT is fundamentally right; I am going to respectfully disagree as the LA Times point is a valid one, i.e. the weightings should even each other out. More importantly, though, this was the most accurate poll in 2012 and they have kept their methodology and so should not be discounted (RCP makes this very same point in an article).
3. HRC seems to be hitting a wall at around 45% even with national polls showing a lead of +7-8%. The same seems to be happening in the battle ground states. Where she increases her lead, it seems to be because Trump's share falls, not that her share rises. That at least raises the possibility Trump can regain these votes and / or there are "shy Trumpsters".
4. In the battleground states (NC, FL, NV, IA, OH), HRC has not pulled away despite this being "Trump['s worst week". In fact, as Nunu (I think) posted last night, postal votes from heavily-Democrat Cleveland do not look good and IA looks more like Trump. In NC, NV and FL, Trump is well within striking range of HRC.
5. You mention the potential for upsets like TX but there are a few potential Democrat issues. In VA - which I assume is for HRC - the latest poll shows her with only a +3% lead; there have been reports of the Democrats putting extra resources into Minnesota (which has been trending more Republican at a local level) because of concerns about the White vote.
6. Finally, on the reports, there are enough reports coming out suggesting that at least some of these accusers have links to the Democrats. In a highly partisan election like this, I can only see this as meaning that the story only appeals to hard core Democrats and others will perhaps put them to one side.
I warn you not to be old, I warn you not to be sick...
@JosiasJessop
@GeoffM
Thank you for the debunking, but I must confess to some sadness: as a story it was really interesting
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1301167/#Comment_1301167
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1301169/#Comment_1301169
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1301179/#Comment_1301179
It's mindbending.
And on those Clinton Foundation donations
#Charity begins at Home but Really? How 100% of the #Clintons' 2015 'charity' went to...themselves!!!! https://t.co/ZUfkfzqIzv
I bet the tub's about all I could afford to buy. I'd have to save up for the wheels, bodyshell, transmission, engine ...
This is basically impossible.
Their full cross tabs are hidden from public view.
But if I was a voter in a swing state, I'd still be compelled to vote for her over Trump. He is a danger to the world; she is merely a mediocre insider with an over-developed sense of entitlement. If she ended up being impeached, it wouldn't be a disaster.
FWIW, if I were a voter in a non-swing state, or if the election looked sufficiently comfortable for Hillary, I'd vote for Johnson as a protest against the poor standard of the top two (not that Johnson is any better really).
I also see your point about the supply chain, which looks very different for someone like Nissan when compared to someone like McLaren - the latter importing some raw carbon and titanium and turning out a £200k sports car from the factory.
It would make sense not to apply import tariffs to components for assembly into any manufactured product, but you and I are both in favour of keeping any tariffs to a minimum anyway. Of more concern is British parts being subject to tariffs when sent to the EU for final assembly, which are not in the control of the British government - think of the Airbus wings and Rolls aero engines.
"It will be a bloodbath’: 3 ‘militia’ men charged with WMD conspiracy, threatening Somali refugees"
“The only f***ing way this country’s ever going to get turned around is it will be a bloodbath and it will be a nasty, messy motherf***er. Unless a lot more people in this country wake up and smell the f***ing coffee and decide they want this country back ... we might be too late, if they do wake up ... I think we can get it done. But it ain’t going to be nothing nice about it”
http://tinyurl.com/ztpthkh
1. I was indeed looking at the 2-way. Is this a more reliable guide than the 4-way? I think so because when it comes down to it, I think potential third-party swing voters will be squeezed where it matters to keep their most disliked main candidate out.
2. When I was researching the article, I used both the RCP and HuffPost selections. Both seem to point in the same direction with the great majority of polls at state and national levels reinforcing each other, I'm sceptical against going against so strong a trend.
3. Clinton does seem to have a 45% ceiling in the 4-way polls but Trump seems to have a 40% ceiling - unsurprising given his negatives. As long as Hillary is above that, she's safe.
4. I think much the same applies as for (3). In one sense, I agree that it's quite close; in another, if Trump has a low ceiling then as long as Hillary is above it then she'll win. Even if the polls haven't moved heavily against Trump, this narrative isn't going to move them to him, which is what he needs.
5. Yep. There are potential upsets on both sides. FWIW, I doubt that HRC will get close in TX. Likewise, we have to expect the odd outlier/dodgy poll that benefits Trump. Until I see a trend riding off a reason, I'd be inclined to disregard spiky results.
6. Even if that's true, it's unlikely to shift the polls to Trump. He did say what he's recorded as saying. You're right about the depths of the divisions. His problem is that he has to win people over that divide, which isn't going to happen given his current campaigning.
And therein lies Trump's problem: how does he shatter the ceiling he's trapped beneath and needs to get through?
Falkland Islands
Argentina shouldn't flatter itself - we wouldn't waste a perfectly good missile on them unless they really annoyed us. #Falklands
There appears to be a curious contradiction in the betting markets as regards the number of Electoral College Votes which Hillary Clinton is likely to win.
Whilst Sporting Index has her at a mid spread of 327 ECVs (Sell at 322 - Buy at 332), the corresponding 30 vote band in which this is contained, i.e. 300 - 329 votes is only the third favourite band with the bookies, behind the 330 - 359 vote favourite and 360 - 389 second favourite.
Even curiouser is that BetfairEx has her some way ahead of the conventional bookies at 6.8 decimal to win between 300 - 329 votes and yet curiouser still is that over the past 24 hours I've asked for and obtained a price of 7.4 with the exchange, which equates to 7.08 net of their 5% commission.
That looks like value to me, but DYOR.
It would have saved the victim a huge amount of grief and shown that Britain rehabilitates. Why did people want him to lose his career on top of his custodial sentence?
Buy d.c suburbs are good, shell win Virginia easily.
Awful, isn't it.
Who could Hillary be? She could be Mrs. Slocombe in Are You Being Served? Maybe the long suffering wife who is married to Sid James from one of the Carry on Movies. Or she could be one of the duracell bunnies ratatatatting endlessly on their little drum. Or she could be one of the little Chipmunks from Alvin and the Chipmunks...one of my guilty pleasures.....
With the situation as you describe back home, plus the growing variety of individualist views within these groups, plus those with power no longer being a homogenous 'class' to oppose, Labour's problem is that its whole philosophy and approach to politics doesn't really work very well in the 21st century. Hence the left clings to its traditional beliefs and the moderates can't really work out what they believe or why.
Then any other club who expressed an interest in giving him a trial got the same treatment.
The mob logic was, 1) he is a rapist, therefore should never be allowed such a privileged position and is a role model, 2) he hasn't said sorry (duh because he was appealing the verdict) and 3) he was a danger to young girls who came to the games.
The thing that annoyed me the most, there are footballers who have done similar or worse and none of this. Lee Hughes killed somebody, and after prison he restarted his career with no media outrage.
There are some gated medical articles referenced via Wikipedia which I can't access, but this post does have some footnoted links (including to an accessible 1946 medical journal)
http://lmharchive.ca/benzedrine-sulphate-used-in-war-operations-by-brook-durham/
US pilots are stil officially required to use Adderall on certain missions...
From BBC / Guardian to Daily Mail...what we are hearing is
"yeah, technically innocent....but..."
while morally his actions are arguably beyond the pale, legally it seems Chedwyn Michael Evans did nothing wrong.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3839091/Yes-Ched-Evans-cleared-no-one-comes-sordid-affair-reputation-unsullied-writes-BARBARA-DAVIES.html
I had the misfortune to drive past the car that Lee Hughes hit later that day.
My take, the guy is a total scumbag who had a particular entitled attitude towards women. But not exactly shocking that there are footballers like that, especially given the number of (super) injunction stories we have seen leaked over the take few years. A few of them have even been made England captain.
Reading the evidence presented at the retrial, it is not surprising that the jury took only a couple of hours to find him innocent.
At least be objective when it comes to which polls are garbage.
"The other day I'm standing at my podium and she walks in front of me, right? She walks in front of me and when she walked in front of me. Believe me, I wasn't impressed, but she walks in front of me."
From this week's Conservative bulletin:
JOB ADVERT - Campaign Manager, the Conservative Party – several roles.
Overview: This is a “sleeves-rolled-up”, hands-on, do whatever needs to be done, city-based, campaigning role requiring substantial flexibility and a can-do attitude as, even over short periods of time, political and campaigning priorities can develop and change rapidly. This role is ideally suited to an enthusiastic and ambitious on-the-ground campaigner who enjoys a wide-ranging role. Working hours will of necessity require to be varied and flexible. Campaign Managers must have a flexible approach and be in a position to stay overnight away from home. It is essential to be both a car driver and a car owner.
Location:
Birmingham
The Black Country
Leeds
Liverpool
Leicester
Manchester
Newcastle
Nottingham
Sheffield
I sometimes wonder what all the sixties groupies got up to? Did the Stones etc have someone on the door even checking birth certificates? Not just then, but even up to the present. Are alcohol or other drugs being taken? Statutory rape by the hundred if that's the case.
It could be a lawyers wet dream (sorry).
1. I was indeed looking at the 2-way. Is this a more reliable guide than the 4-way? I think so because when it comes down to it, I think potential third-party swing voters will be squeezed where it matters to keep their most disliked main candidate out.
2. When I was researching the article, I used both the RCP and HuffPost selections. Both seem to point in the same direction with the great majority of polls at state and national levels reinforcing each other, I'm sceptical against going against so strong a trend.
3. Clinton does seem to have a 45% ceiling in the 4-way polls but Trump seems to have a 40% ceiling - unsurprising given his negatives. As long as Hillary is above that, she's safe.
4. I think much the same applies as for (3). In one sense, I agree that it's quite close; in another, if Trump has a low ceiling then as long as Hillary is above it then she'll win. Even if the polls haven't moved heavily against Trump, this narrative isn't going to move them to him, which is what he needs.
5. Yep. There are potential upsets on both sides. FWIW, I doubt that HRC will get close in TX. Likewise, we have to expect the odd outlier/dodgy poll that benefits Trump. Until I see a trend riding off a reason, I'd be inclined to disregard spiky results.
6. Even if that's true, it's unlikely to shift the polls to Trump. He did say what he's recorded as saying. You're right about the depths of the divisions. His problem is that he has to win people over that divide, which isn't going to happen given his current campaigning.
And therein lies Trump's problem: how does he shatter the ceiling he's trapped beneath and needs to get through?
Thanks David. A few comments.
My betting view is that this will be a low turnout election but the demographics will look different from 2012 - Trump's strategy seems to be a variation of Blair's 1997 strategy over here i.e. fire your own base talking about how wicked HRC is and then try to dampen the enthusiasm of certain strongly pro-Democratic groups - namely African-Americans and young people - to vote by claiming that nothing will really change with HRC and / or that she is a crook.
One thread that was run on here post-GE said that the polls were right but we were looking at the wrong poll i.e. we should have been viewing the who is the best PM results. I think this election's equivalent will be "do you think the country is on the right track?" Given (a) net score of +35% to +40% say it is not and (b) HRC is the continuity candidate, I really do not see how this helps HRC.
For a popular article on American pilots:
https://vanwinkles.com/how-fighter-pilots-battle-fatigue
For a medical survey of Benzedrine uses from 1946 including WW2 where the allies used 150 million doses (see pages 215 onwards):
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2478360/pdf/postmedj00645-0004.pdf
- Tory members would have voted for Leadsome had they been given the chance
- The Dems managed to stop Sanders whilst Labour voted Corbyn in, twice
- The UKIP brawler is the front-runner for next leader
- Boris
- Brexit
This Government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future. [...]
We will continue to work with Nissan as we develop the environment for competitiveness of the automotive industry here in the UK to ensure its success.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3838315/Nissan-boss-voices-confidence-post-Brexit-Britain-competitive-place-business-crunch-talks-PM-future-Sunderland-plant.html
'right conditions', 'environment for competitiveness' - the unadulterated language of Bennite interventionism. I can't see the controversy. Surely this is in line with May's statist instincts?
I wonder when government subsidised, debt funded wealth consumption became more moral than wealth creation and living within your means ?
It explains why Britain has had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years.
Triple lock pensions are government interventionism, Help-To-Buy is government interventionism, HS2 is government interventionism etc etc etc.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wardlaw-Milne
"supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry" = What everyone should expect from every UK Govt. A vanilla statement that is all motherhood and apple pie. No specifics just intentions.
Longer term, the last thing you want is for the UK government to be in hoc to big businesses, micromanaging everything.
Fortunately we're a long way from that. But I reserve the right to be worried.
I doubt that industrial subsidies ever amount to more than a few billion (and Nissan have dipped into that for 30+ years) and some have even been money well invested (Nissan again).
The damaging subsidies and tax breaks are the ones that governments use to bribe voters to keep consuming.
*He that quotes the thoughts of Polly Toynbee as a good thing. Probably the wetest Conservative in the Govt.