That is a shocker of a poll for Trump. Points to a rout, as has a strong GOP house effect/lean. For reference, I believe Ras had Romney ahead on eve of poll in 2012.
Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.
Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week
Indeed. Looking at betting opportunities, I'm thinking Clinton with a big handicap in the EC might be worth it. RCP's "no toss-up" map already had 340-198, and you can probably flip Arizona and Iowa too. Both were near 50/50s before the tapes came out, so that's 357-181.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Theresa May must be thinking about the option of a GE on numbers like these.
Perhaps in March/April 2017 - just after she invokes article 50 - she asks for a new mandate to pursue her negotiating strategy for Brexit on the terms laid out, as well as her new plan for Britain. It'd also buy her until 2022 in a new 5 year parliament - time to recover from any Brexit based economic setbacks and make progress on the deficit.
It would be on the old boundaries, but that shouldn't matter on these numbers. Also I think she could get c.100 Labour MPs to vote through an early GE through the Commons as they might think it's their last chance to spike Corbyn and save themselves (despite the painful collateral)
If May goes to the Country on a Brexit manifesto of ending free movement and single market access not membership, surely the likes of Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan could not stand as Tories?
would anyone care ?
Only a fool pursues ideological purity at the expense of party unity. I would have hoped that the Corbyn experience would be illustrative here. Perhaps not.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
It is obvious that the likes of Yvette Cooper, Dan Jarvis, Chuka Umunna & Liz Kendall should be held responsible for this poll. If they would only respect Corbyn's mandate and rejoin the Shadow Cabinet Labour would probably be ahead.
Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.
Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week
Indeed. Looking at betting opportunities, I'm thinking Clinton with a big handicap in the EC might be worth it. RCP's "no toss-up" map already had 340-198, and you can probably flip Arizona and Iowa too. Both were near 50/50s before the tapes came out, so that's 357-181.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Have you forgotten about the LA times poll tracker? Still has Trump + 3...
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
We've just had a survey in the office as to which in the 'stellar' Jezza concert anyone has heard of. The Farm had a hit and obviously, everyone knows Paul Weller but, erm, Stealing Sheep?
And what would "arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities" look like - transgender mime artists acting out the concept of a Trident submarine with no missiles in it?
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
6. This
I god, how could I forget that? Truly teeth-grindingly awful. Yes, put it in Room 101.
@Topping – indeed another for the verboten list. Thanks for citing that one!
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
You okay, hun? Just virtue signalling I guess - colour me scared. Really just another way of taking the fight to the Tories I suppose. But remember: Brexit means Brexit.
It is obvious that the likes of Yvette Cooper, Dan Jarvis, Chuka Umunna & Liz Kendall should be held responsible for this poll. If they would only respect Corbyn's mandate and rejoin the Shadow Cabinet Labour would probably be ahead.
Ha! And yet that is indeed the view of many of the deluded Corbynistas. Quite ludicrous really.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
You okay, hun? Just virtue signalling I guess - colour me scared. Really just another way of taking the fight to the Tories I suppose. But remember: Brexit means Brexit.
PAUL WELLER STEPS BACK into the political arena this winter, assembling a bespoke band featuring Robert Wyatt, Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier to play the first of several UK-wide Concerts For Corbyn at Brighton Dome on December 16.
Proceeds from the concert will benefit arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities, say organisers. Tickets go on sale this Friday, October 14.
Other acts on the bill include Temples, Kathryn Williams, Stealing Sheep, The Farm, Jim Jones And The Righteous Mind, Edgar Summertyme and Ghetto Priest. All the artists are waiving their fees.
Apart from Paul Weller, who are they?
Used to like the Farm and Jim Jones, no idea who the rest are.
Corybnites remind me of a Jim Jones - the one who set up shop in Guyana....
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
You okay, hun? Just virtue signalling I guess - colour me scared. Really just another way of taking the fight to the Tories I suppose. But remember: Brexit means Brexit.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
You okay, hun? Just virtue signalling I guess - colour me scared. Really just another way of taking the fight to the Tories I suppose. But remember: Brexit means Brexit.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
You okay, hun? Just virtue signalling I guess - colour me scared. Really just another way of taking the fight to the Tories I suppose. But remember: Brexit means Brexit.
So that's about a 12% swing from Labour to Tories among the over-65s (much greater than the 6.5% swing among the electorate as a whole). That implies to me that we should be modelling seats in England and Wales for the next election by age profile rather than working off uniform national swing.
This is a very, very, very good suggestion.
I'd be happy to have a crack at a model both before and after boundary changes if anyone has a data source for age groups by constituency.
We've just had a survey in the office as to which in the 'stellar' Jezza concert anyone has heard of. The Farm had a hit and obviously, everyone knows Paul Weller but, erm, Stealing Sheep?
And what would "arts-based initiatives associated with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s policy priorities" look like - transgender mime artists acting out the concept of a Trident submarine with no missiles in it?
I saw a collection of tweets with Jezza playing the bongos and a violin - he seems very keen on music lessons for all IIRC.
As someone who can't carry a tune in a bucket and useless despite efforts with the recorder, flute, piano, guitar and violin - I can't believe inflicting similarly talentless people on anyone beyond the profoundly deaf is a good idea.
It is obvious that the likes of Yvette Cooper, Dan Jarvis, Chuka Umunna & Liz Kendall should be held responsible for this poll. If they would only respect Corbyn's mandate and rejoin the Shadow Cabinet Labour would probably be ahead.
Jeremy could really take the fight to the Tories then.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
You okay, hun? Just virtue signalling I guess - colour me scared. Really just another way of taking the fight to the Tories I suppose. But remember: Brexit means Brexit.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
Wanting to ban things - why am I not surprised from Bobajob.
Looking at Italy, the polling seems to be moving towards No. This, also, does not bode well for Renzi (from Bloomberg)
"53 percent of voters consider the referendum a vote on Renzi’s performance while only 27 percent see the content of the reform as the key issue"
Any well-informed Italy-watchers out there who could interpret the consequences (other than instability) of a No victory?
Nothing really, just the usual gridlock. Renzi has walked back his resignation promise, but that probably helps M5S since Renzi can be painted as illegitimately holding office if it is a no vote. It increases the chances of Italy ending up with a populist government IMO.
Running the ICM numbers through Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 125 on the new boundaries.
Tories gain Tooting, Wakefield, Mansfield, Darlington, Spen, several seats in Birmingham...
Dromey, Alan J, Danczuk, Creagh, Geraint D all lose their seats.
UKIP (notionally with two seats) wiped out. Greens don't take a Brighton seat but do win Bristol W LDs actually gain one (though from a notional base of just four) - Cambridge SNP more or less unaffected
All (doubly) theoretical of course, but would be a fascinating election night to watch!
Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.
Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week
Indeed. Looking at betting opportunities, I'm thinking Clinton with a big handicap in the EC might be worth it. RCP's "no toss-up" map already had 340-198, and you can probably flip Arizona and Iowa too. Both were near 50/50s before the tapes came out, so that's 357-181.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.
Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week
Indeed. Looking at betting opportunities, I'm thinking Clinton with a big handicap in the EC might be worth it. RCP's "no toss-up" map already had 340-198, and you can probably flip Arizona and Iowa too. Both were near 50/50s before the tapes came out, so that's 357-181.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Have you forgotten about the LA times poll tracker? Still has Trump + 3...
538 adjusts Ras to a 9 point lead! And tied with men! A killer for him.
But.... but I was told it was just "locker room" talk by Plato. What utter bs.
This has come up a number of times over the past few days. Few corrections required.
They don't claim to have the tapes, they claim that Trump said really bad stuff and it will be on tape. Burnett supposed has all the unedited material and is a Trump supporter. Burnett doesn't own the rights to air anything to do with the early seasons, MGM does.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
You okay, hun? Just virtue signalling I guess - colour me scared. Really just another way of taking the fight to the Tories I suppose. But remember: Brexit means Brexit.
Best. Post. Ever.
All it needed was a few s and s and it would have wound up tyson as well...
Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.
Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week
Indeed. Looking at betting opportunities, I'm thinking Clinton with a big handicap in the EC might be worth it. RCP's "no toss-up" map already had 340-198, and you can probably flip Arizona and Iowa too. Both were near 50/50s before the tapes came out, so that's 357-181.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Have you forgotten about the LA times poll tracker? Still has Trump + 3...
538 adjusts Ras to a 9 point lead! And tied with men! A killer for him.
Now that I've finished being all excited about one poll with the Tories on a 17% lead I can tell you not to get too excited about just one poll.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
Hiliary should have just ignored Trump totally and stuck to the focus grouped answers she had learned.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
6. This
I god, how could I forget that? Truly teeth-grindingly awful. Yes, put it in Room 101.
@Topping – indeed another for the verboten list. Thanks for citing that one!
7. Indeed. Tr: someone's popped out some oft repeated banality that the indeed-er agrees with. See also 'nail on head'.
8. We shall see. Usually dropped in at the end of some mildly adventurous hypothesis that the wannabe Cassandra is too scared to pin their colours to.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
6. This
I god, how could I forget that? Truly teeth-grindingly awful. Yes, put it in Room 101.
@Topping – indeed another for the verboten list. Thanks for citing that one!
7. Indeed. Tr: someone's popped out some oft repeated banality that the indeed-er agrees with. See also 'nail on head'.
8. We shall see. Usually dropped in at the end of some mildly adventurous hypothesis that the wannabe Cassandra is too scared to pin their colours to.
Looking at Italy, the polling seems to be moving towards No. This, also, does not bode well for Renzi (from Bloomberg)
"53 percent of voters consider the referendum a vote on Renzi’s performance while only 27 percent see the content of the reform as the key issue"
Any well-informed Italy-watchers out there who could interpret the consequences (other than instability) of a No victory?
Nothing really, just the usual gridlock. Renzi has walked back his resignation promise, but that probably helps M5S since Renzi can be painted as illegitimately holding office if it is a no vote. It increases the chances of Italy ending up with a populist government IMO.
So it increases the chance of Italy leaving the Euro?
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
6. This
I god, how could I forget that? Truly teeth-grindingly awful. Yes, put it in Room 101.
@Topping – indeed another for the verboten list. Thanks for citing that one!
7. Indeed. Tr: someone's popped out some oft repeated banality that the indeed-er agrees with. See also 'nail on head'.
8. We shall see. Usually dropped in at the end of some mildly adventurous hypothesis that the wannabe Cassandra is too scared to pin their colours to.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
Hiliary should have just ignored Trump totally and stuck to the focus grouped answers she had learned.
As you noted at the time, HillaryBot v2.0 was so plastic. Her language was packed with jargon and high level policy stuff.
I'd no idea what she was saying half the time, and bored or patronised by the 'as a grandmother' stuff. It was focused grouped to death with wooden delivery. I didn't feel any warmth or empathy as she became increasingly shrill and loud.
I honestly have no idea how someone with 30yrs under her belt can still sound like an insincere lawyer. Just a dollop of charm would transform her.
Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.
Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week
Indeed. Looking at betting opportunities, I'm thinking Clinton with a big handicap in the EC might be worth it. RCP's "no toss-up" map already had 340-198, and you can probably flip Arizona and Iowa too. Both were near 50/50s before the tapes came out, so that's 357-181.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Have you forgotten about the LA times poll tracker? Still has Trump + 3...
538 adjusts Ras to a 9 point lead! And tied with men! A killer for him.
Now that I've finished being all excited about one poll with the Tories on a 17% lead I can tell you not to get too excited about just one poll.
To be fair the Trump rampers get very excited normally over ras...
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
Post debate it doesn't seem to have been. His answer was TERRIBLE on it.
Difficult to tell as there's no separate Green column for 2015GE vote but my guess would be that they've a high retention rate. They've also taken 8% of the 2015 LD vote, although this equates to well under 1% of voters overall.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
6. This
I god, how could I forget that? Truly teeth-grindingly awful. Yes, put it in Room 101.
@Topping – indeed another for the verboten list. Thanks for citing that one!
7. Indeed. Tr: someone's popped out some oft repeated banality that the indeed-er agrees with. See also 'nail on head'.
8. We shall see. Usually dropped in at the end of some mildly adventurous hypothesis that the wannabe Cassandra is too scared to pin their colours to.
I am guilty of 7. I will endeavour to stop it.
Nail. Head. is certainly one for the list.
9. Safe space 10. Waycist!
Although 1) should surely be 'Virtue signalling'. I'm not sure that we've discussed Radio Electronic Token Block - or virtual signalling - on PB much, despite our frequent diversion onto railway matters.
One thing is for certain: our referendum is being talked about the world over and it may well be the first kick-back against the status quo that leads to a popular revolt across the West. While Trump and Clinton may be the most unpopular presidential candidates ever, there has been a growing distrust of the political class. Just as in the UK, where cash for questions and the MPs’ expenses scandals lead to a chorus of uproar, the elites in Washington are seen as remote and detached.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
I suspect the only thing people will remember from the debate is Trump's assertion that Clinton should be in jail. If you think that anyway, you will nod your head. The few remaining undecideds will think it out of order.
Afternoon. So only 17% poll lead for Theresa, after her 'disastrous' conference last week. Oh well.
Or is it just that anyone old enough to remember the Corbynesque Labour governments of the '60s and '70s doesn't want to touch them again with a barge pole!
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
Hiliary should have just ignored Trump totally and stuck to the focus grouped answers she had learned.
As you noted at the time, HillaryBot v2.0 was so plastic. Her language was packed with jargon and high level policy stuff.
I'd no idea what she was saying half the time, and bored or patronised by the 'as a grandmother' stuff. It was focused grouped to death with wooden delivery. I didn't feel any warmth or empathy as she became increasingly shrill and loud.
I honestly have no idea how someone with 30yrs under her belt can still sound like an insincere lawyer. Just a dollop of charm would transform her.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
Hiliary should have just ignored Trump totally and stuck to the focus grouped answers she had learned.
As you noted at the time, HillaryBot v2.0 was so plastic. Her language was packed with jargon and high level policy stuff.
I'd no idea what she was saying half the time, and bored or patronised by the 'as a grandmother' stuff. It was focused grouped to death with wooden delivery. I didn't feel any warmth or empathy as she became increasingly shrill and loud.
I honestly have no idea how someone with 30yrs under her belt can still sound like an insincere lawyer. Just a dollop of charm would transform her.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
I suspect the only thing people will remember from the debate is Trump's assertion that Clinton should be in jail. If you think that anyway, you will nod your head. The few remaining undecideds will think it out of order.
A little inflation (2-3%) and interest rates off the floor would do wonders for the medium term economy. The former might be in evidence by next summer, and the latter should follow, although rate rises will dampen inported inflation by strengthening the pound.
The problem with the 18-24 voting category isn't just that their turnout tends to be low, it's also that there aren't all that many of them in the first place. I don't think they comprise more than about 10% of the electorate, and that isn't much when you only have 5 groups altogether. Having an 18-30 category would be more useful.
Friday Washington Post. So that doesn't fully take 'Pussygate' into account.
Trump better be prepared for some really bad polls over the week
Indeed. Looking at betting opportunities, I'm thinking Clinton with a big handicap in the EC might be worth it. RCP's "no toss-up" map already had 340-198, and you can probably flip Arizona and Iowa too. Both were near 50/50s before the tapes came out, so that's 357-181.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Have you forgotten about the LA times poll tracker? Still has Trump + 3...
538 adjusts Ras to a 9 point lead! And tied with men! A killer for him.
Now that I've finished being all excited about one poll with the Tories on a 17% lead I can tell you not to get too excited about just one poll.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
Hiliary should have just ignored Trump totally and stuck to the focus grouped answers she had learned.
After a week of telling us what a disastrous conference TMay and the Conservatives had, along with their unpopular (among the commentariate, if not the voters) grammar school policy, OGH, bless his little cotton socks, couldn't bring himself to write 'Con have 17% lead' so had to write 'Lab 17% behind'.......
You ok, hun?
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling 2. Taking the fight to the Tories 3. You okay, hun? 4. Colour me [whatever] 5. Brexit means Brexit
6. This
I god, how could I forget that? Truly teeth-grindingly awful. Yes, put it in Room 101.
@Topping – indeed another for the verboten list. Thanks for citing that one!
7. Indeed. Tr: someone's popped out some oft repeated banality that the indeed-er agrees with. See also 'nail on head'.
8. We shall see. Usually dropped in at the end of some mildly adventurous hypothesis that the wannabe Cassandra is too scared to pin their colours to.
I am guilty of 7. I will endeavour to stop it.
Nail. Head. is certainly one for the list.
I object to 6, 7 and 8 if they are the only content of the post. Following up on something you agree with, however, I've found it useful to start with an explicit "I agree"-type statement as otherwise people often think you're disagreeing, even though you aren't.
Having watched the debate now, I can declare that Trump won it.
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet. Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
Post debate it doesn't seem to have been. His answer was TERRIBLE on it.
His answer was actually the best given the circumstances, by the middle of the debate I had forgotten about the tape, and the people in the debate had stopped talking about it too.
Trump the scum won the debate and put the tape away.
On hindsight I believe the democrats did a mistake by releasing the tape before the debate.
Although they had sceduled to release it today to damp any potencial Trump victory on the debate, they decided to release it on Friday to try and screw Trump on the debate stage but it didn't work.
Comments
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/785463585539579904
That is a shocker of a poll for Trump. Points to a rout, as has a strong GOP house effect/lean. For reference, I believe Ras had Romney ahead on eve of poll in 2012.
After that? S Carolina and Georgia I guess. Missouri? If it becomes a runaway mess and the debate polling numbers with women holds, do we even have to look further afield? I'm especially looking at Texas, where because of his non-traditional voter appeal Trump was only +6/7ish ahead a couple of weeks back. Surely not? Nice odds though, 6/1 or more.
Would need to look at states where a big gender shift would have the most effect.
Phrases that should be banned forthwith for the good of the nation, and all PBers.
1. Virtual signalling
2. Taking the fight to the Tories
3. You okay, hun?
4. Colour me [whatever]
5. Brexit means Brexit
When will the Corbynauts WAKE UP? FFS the man is a walking disaster. Get rid.
@Topping – indeed another for the verboten list. Thanks for citing that one!
Ha! And yet that is indeed the view of many of the deluded Corbynistas. Quite ludicrous really.
This.
I'd be happy to have a crack at a model both before and after boundary changes if anyone has a data source for age groups by constituency.
As someone who can't carry a tune in a bucket and useless despite efforts with the recorder, flute, piano, guitar and violin - I can't believe inflicting similarly talentless people on anyone beyond the profoundly deaf is a good idea.
"53 percent of voters consider the referendum a vote on Renzi’s performance while only 27 percent see the content of the reform as the key issue"
Any well-informed Italy-watchers out there who could interpret the consequences (other than instability) of a No victory?
.@mike_pence: Reports about possible exit from ticket 'absolutely false' https://t.co/rI0IfS9saM
Second US presidential #debate - Donald Trump's most-used words to Hillary Clinton #PresidentialDebate https://t.co/h0petEVRHQ
"'Apprentice' producers say they have footage of Donald Trump using the 'N-word'"
http://www.independent.ie/entertainment/television/apprentice-producers-say-they-have-footage-of-donald-trump-using-the-nword-35117846.html
Most entertaining
This is why we roll our eyes at fact-checkers, @jayrosen_nyu https://t.co/ZEVVvDSZnT
And he won it at around the 15th minute when the tape issue was put aside.
He won a reprieve, how long and how big it will be is unknown yet.
Seems it was a good strategy for the RNC to wait for the debate, just in case Trump won it.
Now comes the Foreign Policy debate in 9 days time, Trump's weakest area, though watching this debate Hillary did worse when asked about her foreign policy.
But.... but I was told it was just "locker room" talk by Plato. What utter bs.
They don't claim to have the tapes, they claim that Trump said really bad stuff and it will be on tape. Burnett supposed has all the unedited material and is a Trump supporter. Burnett doesn't own the rights to air anything to do with the early seasons, MGM does.
http://order-order.com/2016/10/10/corbyn-in-the-words-of-his-new-top-team/
2/3 of independents say the lewd Trump video isn't a big deal. But... https://t.co/7SsqRiMjCH https://t.co/Lhpw592rFV
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-bible-last-minute-pitch-to-evangelicals-ahead-of-iowa-caucuses-election-2016/
Iowa seems like a lifetime ago.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37606228
Tr: someone's popped out some oft repeated banality that the indeed-er agrees with. See also 'nail on head'.
8. We shall see.
Usually dropped in at the end of some mildly adventurous hypothesis that the wannabe Cassandra is too scared to pin their colours to.
Nail. Head. is certainly one for the list.
Maybe not.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/oct/10/bbc-defends-strictly-come-dancing-accusations-racism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrK_HVGOnUo
I'd no idea what she was saying half the time, and bored or patronised by the 'as a grandmother' stuff. It was focused grouped to death with wooden delivery. I didn't feel any warmth or empathy as she became increasingly shrill and loud.
I honestly have no idea how someone with 30yrs under her belt can still sound like an insincere lawyer. Just a dollop of charm would transform her.
Or pussy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/11156904/The-slang-words-that-defined-the-First-World-War.html
Baroness Manzoor who was Lib Dem frontbench spokesman on Work & Pensions in the Lords until 3 months ago has now defected to the Conservatives.
She originally resigned from the Lib Dems and went non-affiliated - now she has joined the Conservatives.
Joins Baroness (Emma) Nicholson who make the same defection a few weeks ago.
All helping the Con position in the Lords - though Lord (Seb) Coe has today gone on leave of absence from the Lords.
http://standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
Melanie McDonagh"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/shami-chakrabarti-isnt-alone-selective-stance-schooling/
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/785471928974835712
10. Waycist!
Although 1) should surely be 'Virtue signalling'. I'm not sure that we've discussed Radio Electronic Token Block - or virtual signalling - on PB much, despite our frequent diversion onto railway matters.
11. Overuse of smilies. Ahem.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/10/09/the-little-people-have-had-enough---not-just-here-but-in-america/
One thing is for certain: our referendum is being talked about the world over and it may well be the first kick-back against the status quo that leads to a popular revolt across the West. While Trump and Clinton may be the most unpopular presidential candidates ever, there has been a growing distrust of the political class. Just as in the UK, where cash for questions and the MPs’ expenses scandals lead to a chorus of uproar, the elites in Washington are seen as remote and detached.
Or is it just that anyone old enough to remember the Corbynesque Labour governments of the '60s and '70s doesn't want to touch them again with a barge pole!
I guess Seb is a little busy with the day job of trying to get drugs out of athletics, hopefully he can return soon.
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/fears-for-3000-workers-as-mushroom-industry-hit-35116513.html
Once new joiners and all changes updated I think the position going forward will be:
Con 256, Lab 207, LD 104, Crossbench 180
With Con turnout normally about 10% higher than Lab, Con is going to be getting competitive in any vote where Crossbenchers break their way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWcPR_EaE50
@britainelects: In her current public role, The Queen is doing a...
Good job: 72%
Bad job: 7%
(via ICM)
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2604130/
RELEASE: The #PodestaEmails part two: 2,086 new emails https://t.co/wzxeh70oUm https://t.co/Jlcf4Fde65
Trump the scum won the debate and put the tape away.
On hindsight I believe the democrats did a mistake by releasing the tape before the debate.
Although they had sceduled to release it today to damp any potencial Trump victory on the debate, they decided to release it on Friday to try and screw Trump on the debate stage but it didn't work.