Say what you like about Hillary Clinton (and there's plenty to say), but she's doing her best to make sure that she spreads any halo effect for other Democrats from what is now her expected victory as far as possible. Her ruthlessness may make her unlikeable but it is also what potentially makes her a very effective machine politician.
You also get the feeling that Donald Trump is being set up for another punch.
BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 14 points — NBC/WSJ poll (Oct. 8-9)
2-way Clinton 52 Trump 38
4-way Clinton 46 Trump 35 Johnson 9 Stein 2
who said that the tapes wouldnt hurt trump? This is from friday to sunday
Of course the Tapes killed Trump, but his debate victory resurected him.
And thus, the Trump-is-Jesus meme was born...
Don't be silly. Trump is more resurrected than anyone in the history of the planet. He is not a mere Jesus, who was only the son of God and had only one third voting rights.
But Trump suprisingly did a good job on the foreign policy questions on this debate. And Hillary did worse. The 3rd debate which is on foreign policy should be an interesting one.
Foreign policy is also the best topic for Trump to run as me vs. the establishment.
What is Hillary, or any of the NeverTrump Republican's answer to, "We spent $4tr in the Middle East and got nothing while our country is in debt and falling to pieces..."
"We are great and Russia is evil," won't cut it.
ok but he doesnt prepare for debates and has incredibly low knowledge of most things. He cant destroy Clinton in a debate, which is what he needs to even be competitive at the moment
Perhaps the Conservatives need a new manifesto. The 2015 one has clearly been superseded by events.
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single currency and the customs union no matter what.
That is, I feel, in the truest sense of the word: a gaffe.
I blame auto correct/suggestion.
I of course meant
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single market and the customs union no matter what.
The single market is and always will be one Thatcher's finest legacies.
Davis today confirmed we will assume the position of tariff free trade with the EU - if they decide to cut their own voters throats by instigating tarriffs then they will be digging their own graves.
Say what you like about Hillary Clinton (and there's plenty to say), but she's doing her best to make sure that she spreads any halo effect for other Democrats from what is now her expected victory as far as possible. Her ruthlessness may make her unlikeable but it is also what potentially makes her a very effective machine politician.
You also get the feeling that Donald Trump is being set up for another punch.
yeah. There is definitely another video out there.
Congratulations @PlatoSaid on being quoted in the Washington Post, though you seem to be taking a slightly different tack over there:
As such, Plato reasons, the fabulously wealthy lack principles and a moral anchor outside of themselves. They feel no obligations to speak the truth or promote the common good, and no obligation to pay taxes or uphold contracts. To avoid these obligations, for such souls, is considered “smart.”
Because when they did so, their political classes wanted to be members. Only one country is actually affected by it though - Norway. Iceland simply doesn't get the numbers to make it an issue, Lichtenstein has an exemption from FOM, and Switzerland is about to find out what happens when you crash out of a poorly drafted bilateral agreement which isn't compatible with your own democracy.
Refugees *are* a big issue in Norway - they offered to take lots (as they have in the past) and did:
They are big on total-immersion integration - IIRC in order to settle you have to agree to 180 hours of instruction on language and life in Norway. And there is some unease now, especially at people slipping in over the Russian border. But in general most people there are pro-immigration as long as it's handled in an orderly way. You're right that freedom of movement per se has never been a big deal there.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Those foaming about it are just useful idiots. The whole point is to make the EU realise we will walk away with our heads held high if they are not reasonable.
Basic pre negotiating FFS.
Whether one is "in" or "has access to" the single market is mostly word play. However from the European perspective, the EU is synonymous with the single market, so there is no "trick".
Other than Trump, the other real loser from this election (so far) has been Julian Assange, who clearly thought the DNC email hack would be the game change in this cycle.
Were she facing Rubio or Kasich it may well have been...
I still don't understand why the political parties are anywhere near voter registration forms. It seems risky, to say the least.
History.
In the past there's been history of voter suppression.
After the clusterfuck in Florida 2000 when people were barred from voting simply because they had names that sounded like felons, and the general vorter purge, voter registration was ramped up, especially by the NAACP and the DNC.
Unless fracking is banned in the US by HRC I fail to see how that would be likely.
The oil price is a perpetual mystery to me, but nevertheless a constant dollar price when sterling is falling like Felix Baumgartner will cost you, me, and everyone else.
Other than Trump, the other real loser from this election (so far) has been Julian Assange, who clearly thought the DNC email hack would be the game change in this cycle.
Were she facing Rubio or Kasich it may well have been...
It has been the shocking ramping on Assange's part that has also minimised the impact, the way he hyped it you got the feeling he was about to publish evidence that Hillary was at on the grassy knoll or that she personally knew the 9/11 attackers.
Unless fracking is banned in the US by HRC I fail to see how that would be likely.
The oil price is a perpetual mystery to me, but nevertheless a constant dollar price when sterling is falling like Felix Baumgartner will cost you, me, and everyone else.
Unless sterling reaches a value of about $0.65 per sterling, oil is still going to be cheaper at the pump than we had relatively recently.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
Unless fracking is banned in the US by HRC I fail to see how that would be likely.
The oil price is a perpetual mystery to me, but nevertheless a constant dollar price when sterling is falling like Felix Baumgartner will cost you, me, and everyone else.
Unless sterling reaches a value of about $0.65 per sterling, oil is still going to be cheaper at the pump than we had relatively recently.
So. Prices will rise significantly and that will hurt people. Whether it remains cheaper than a few years ago is neither here nor there, it will be the upswing that people note.
Just like inflation at 5% would not be ok, just because it was at almost 20% in the 70s. (Or at 5.5% in 2011).
Perhaps the Conservatives need a new manifesto. The 2015 one has clearly been superseded by events.
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single currency and the customs union no matter what.
That is, I feel, in the truest sense of the word: a gaffe.
I blame auto correct/suggestion.
I of course meant
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single market and the customs union no matter what.
The single market is and always will be one Thatcher's finest legacies.
Customs Union Brexit is the worst of all possible worlds, means we need to maintain the EU's Common External Tariff.
That's fine. A customs union means businesses are spared all the customs bureaucracy, paperwork and delays at ports. Without a customs union, it is much easier to base your business in the EU if EU business is important to you.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Perhaps the Conservatives need a new manifesto. The 2015 one has clearly been superseded by events.
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single currency and the customs union no matter what.
That is, I feel, in the truest sense of the word: a gaffe.
I blame auto correct/suggestion.
I of course meant
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single market and the customs union no matter what.
The single market is and always will be one Thatcher's finest legacies.
Customs Union Brexit is the worst of all possible worlds, means we need to maintain the EU's Common External Tariff.
That's fine. A customs union means businesses are spared all the customs bureaucracy, paperwork and delays at ports. Without a customs union, it is much easier to base your business in the EU if EU business is important to you.
Perhaps the Conservatives need a new manifesto. The 2015 one has clearly been superseded by events.
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single currency and the customs union no matter what.
That is, I feel, in the truest sense of the word: a gaffe.
I blame auto correct/suggestion.
I of course meant
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single market and the customs union no matter what.
The single market is and always will be one Thatcher's finest legacies.
Customs Union Brexit is the worst of all possible worlds, means we need to maintain the EU's Common External Tariff.
That's fine. A customs union means businesses are spared all the customs bureaucracy, paperwork and delays at ports. Without a customs union, it is much easier to base your business in the EU if EU business is important to you.
Yes I get that, but that's the point of being in the EU. What is the point of being in the customs union but out of the EU? We have to maintain EU rules while losing our vote in writing those rules.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Congratulations @PlatoSaid on being quoted in the Washington Post, though you seem to be taking a slightly different tack over there:
As such, Plato reasons, the fabulously wealthy lack principles and a moral anchor outside of themselves. They feel no obligations to speak the truth or promote the common good, and no obligation to pay taxes or uphold contracts. To avoid these obligations, for such souls, is considered “smart.”
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
You clearly missed the memo telling you that everything happening as a result of Brexit is either good, wonderful, or was bound to happen anyway.
Another problem is that Trump is hated by all the MSM, even Fox. The stunt he pulled yesterday wasn't even been covered on Fox.
Trump knows how to get himself on tv, but he doesn't have the mechanisms to get people covering other stuff with him not been seen to be involved. So wikileaks is left to the Alex Jones of this world to bang on about, rather than the widely viewed Fox.
If you are going to fight dirty, you have to let other people throw the mud and you stand there and go isn't that shocking.
In comparison, the Clinton machine can call on friendlies in all the MSM and they can setup stories to run and run and run, with all Clinton has to say is well that is truly terrible isn't it and then back to resting.
Unless fracking is banned in the US by HRC I fail to see how that would be likely.
The oil price is a perpetual mystery to me, but nevertheless a constant dollar price when sterling is falling like Felix Baumgartner will cost you, me, and everyone else.
Unless sterling reaches a value of about $0.65 per sterling, oil is still going to be cheaper at the pump than we had relatively recently.
So. Prices will rise significantly and that will hurt people. Whether it remains cheaper than a few years ago is neither here nor there, it will be the upswing that people note.
Just like inflation at 5% would not be ok, just because it was at almost 20% in the 70s. (Or at 5.5% in 2011).
No prices will rise insignificantly.
Inflation is supposed to be 2%. It is currently dangerously below target and has been for five years and counting. Even if inflation reaches 3% it would be closer to target than where we are now.
Congratulations @PlatoSaid on being quoted in the Washington Post, though you seem to be taking a slightly different tack over there:
As such, Plato reasons, the fabulously wealthy lack principles and a moral anchor outside of themselves. They feel no obligations to speak the truth or promote the common good, and no obligation to pay taxes or uphold contracts. To avoid these obligations, for such souls, is considered “smart.”
Unless fracking is banned in the US by HRC I fail to see how that would be likely.
The oil price is a perpetual mystery to me, but nevertheless a constant dollar price when sterling is falling like Felix Baumgartner will cost you, me, and everyone else.
Unless sterling reaches a value of about $0.65 per sterling, oil is still going to be cheaper at the pump than we had relatively recently.
So. Prices will rise significantly and that will hurt people. Whether it remains cheaper than a few years ago is neither here nor there, it will be the upswing that people note.
Just like inflation at 5% would not be ok, just because it was at almost 20% in the 70s. (Or at 5.5% in 2011).
No prices will rise insignificantly.
Correct, they'll rise pretty significantly. Glad you've accepted the inevitable.
Another problem is that Trump is hated by all the MSM, even Fox. The stunt he pulled yesterday wasn't even been covered on Fox.
Trump knows how to get himself on tv, but he doesn't have the mechanisms to get people covering other stuff with him not been seen to be involved. So wikileaks is left to the Alex Jones of this world to bang on about, rather than the widely viewed Fox.
If you are going to fight dirty, you have to let other people throw the mud and you stand there and go isn't that shocking.
In comparison, the Clinton machine can call on friendlies in all the MSM and they can setup stories to run and run and run, with all Clinton has to say is well that is truly terrible isn't it and then back to resting.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
Another problem is that Trump is hated by all the MSM, even Fox. The stunt he pulled yesterday wasn't even been covered on Fox.
Trump knows how to get himself on tv, but he doesn't have the mechanisms to get people covering other stuff with him not been seen to be involved. So wikileaks is left to the Alex Jones of this world to bang on about, rather than the widely viewed Fox.
If you are going to fight dirty, you have to let other people throw the mud and you stand there and go isn't that shocking.
In comparison, the Clinton machine can call on friendlies in all the MSM and they can setup stories to run and run and run, with all Clinton has to say is well that is truly terrible isn't it and then back to resting.
Brexit, cough.....
oh stop the bbc wern't even THAT biased against LEAVE and they had the tabloids.
Unless fracking is banned in the US by HRC I fail to see how that would be likely.
The oil price is a perpetual mystery to me, but nevertheless a constant dollar price when sterling is falling like Felix Baumgartner will cost you, me, and everyone else.
Unless sterling reaches a value of about $0.65 per sterling, oil is still going to be cheaper at the pump than we had relatively recently.
So. Prices will rise significantly and that will hurt people. Whether it remains cheaper than a few years ago is neither here nor there, it will be the upswing that people note.
Just like inflation at 5% would not be ok, just because it was at almost 20% in the 70s. (Or at 5.5% in 2011).
No prices will rise insignificantly.
Inflation is supposed to be 2%. It is currently dangerously below target and has been for five years and counting. Even if inflation reaches 3% it would be closer to target than where we are now.
I seem to remember the last europe caused pound crash in 1992 resulted in the longest boom in modern times. Fortunately we have a tory government in place not Brown this time so it wont all get pissed up the wall.
Perhaps the Conservatives need a new manifesto. The 2015 one has clearly been superseded by events.
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single currency and the customs union no matter what.
That is, I feel, in the truest sense of the word: a gaffe.
I blame auto correct/suggestion.
I of course meant
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single market and the customs union no matter what.
The single market is and always will be one Thatcher's finest legacies.
Customs Union Brexit is the worst of all possible worlds, means we need to maintain the EU's Common External Tariff.
That's fine. A customs union means businesses are spared all the customs bureaucracy, paperwork and delays at ports. Without a customs union, it is much easier to base your business in the EU if EU business is important to you.
Yes I get that, but that's the point of being in the EU. What is the point of being in the customs union but out of the EU? We have to maintain EU rules while losing our vote in writing those rules.
So, by next summer we could well have: 1) Sterling/Euro at parity and all-of-a-sudden those foreign holidays are rather painful 2) Oil above $100 a barrel, which will cause a revolt amongst hauliers and other heavy drivers 3) An ongoing shit-show with regard to brexit negotiations 4) Inflation ramping upwards
75% of the above will hit people in the pockets pretty damn hard, and apart from the oil (where I have no idea what will happen) they're reasonably likely. However, note that the exchange rate will feed through to fuel costs in short order.
Theresa really, really, really should call an election sooner rather than later.
I know your prediction has the weasel "could" in it but why oil at $100?
Perhaps the Conservatives need a new manifesto. The 2015 one has clearly been superseded by events.
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single currency and the customs union no matter what.
That is, I feel, in the truest sense of the word: a gaffe.
I blame auto correct/suggestion.
I of course meant
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single market and the customs union no matter what.
The single market is and always will be one Thatcher's finest legacies.
Customs Union Brexit is the worst of all possible worlds, means we need to maintain the EU's Common External Tariff.
That's fine. A customs union means businesses are spared all the customs bureaucracy, paperwork and delays at ports. Without a customs union, it is much easier to base your business in the EU if EU business is important to you.
Yes I get that, but that's the point of being in the EU. What is the point of being in the customs union but out of the EU? We have to maintain EU rules while losing our vote in writing those rules.
Many of the EU rules are agreed globally, but by leaving the EU we get our vote back on the bodies that agree them.
So, by next summer we could well have: 1) Sterling/Euro at parity and all-of-a-sudden those foreign holidays are rather painful 2) Oil above $100 a barrel, which will cause a revolt amongst hauliers and other heavy drivers 3) An ongoing shit-show with regard to brexit negotiations 4) Inflation ramping upwards
75% of the above will hit people in the pockets pretty damn hard, and apart from the oil (where I have no idea what will happen) they're reasonably likely. However, note that the exchange rate will feed through to fuel costs in short order.
Theresa really, really, really should call an election sooner rather than later.
I know your prediction has the weasel "could" in it but why oil at $100?
Yes, regretting that as it's distracting from the point.
The remaining issues stand. Things are going to get worse for the man-in-the-street, and an early election (in my opinion) is a sound idea.
[I just find the variations in oil price unpredictable (another war in the ME would push it up substantially, for example), and felt that it would add to a perfect storm. Either way, the price at the pump will rise as sterling slides. But I concede I have no idea about the oil price other than a strong feeling it will tend to rise from its current position rather than fall.]
Today Momentum have released details of its new initiative ‘Concerts for Corbyn’. The plan is to inspire the nation to vote for Labour with music. What’s more Paul Weller will play at the first of these concerts. Explaining his decision, the rocker said he agreed to perform as he likes ‘what Corbyn says and stands for’. So, is this a sign of the swing voter finally being wooed back by Labour? Alas not. It turns out that Weller actually abstained from voting in the general election — voicing his disappointment at the time that he wasn’t able to vote for… Russell Brand...
I think this is now a buy time on betfair for Trump.
The worst national polls will be out today which will measure the situation before his debate victory and after the tapes.
The worst state polls will come by the end of the week, state polls always lag national polls.
By next Monday Trump's victory will be starting to seep through in the polls and his price will go up.
Of course there might be another scandal by then, so it's a risk, but barring it this should be Trump's bottom.
I must have missed the third debate that Trump won ....
Who knew .. who watched .... ??
True the third debate is coming up, that's why I say it's a risk, there is enough time to beat Trump back down.
But Trump suprisingly did a good job on the foreign policy questions on this debate. And Hillary did worse. The 3rd debate which is on foreign policy should be an interesting one.
I'm not questioning my assumption that Trump has only got a 10% chance to win, but it's 10% more than I gave him on Sunday morning.
I'm confused.
Betfair has hillary @ 80% & trump @ 17.5%
If you think he has a 10% chance, but the market has him at ~17.5% then trump is still a sell, even if your estimation has gone up from 0% (or whatever it was) to 10%.
Surely you'll only buy him on betfair if you think he has a greater than 17.5% chance?
My recommendation is of a trading bet one.
The betting markets have moved independently of my long held view that Trump has only a 10% chance.
Betfair had him at 25% when I still had him at 10%, they had him at 16% when I had him at 0%. Since the betting markets constantly overrate Trump in my view, he should go back up in the 20's.
Another problem is that Trump is hated by all the MSM, even Fox. The stunt he pulled yesterday wasn't even been covered on Fox.
Trump knows how to get himself on tv, but he doesn't have the mechanisms to get people covering other stuff with him not been seen to be involved. So wikileaks is left to the Alex Jones of this world to bang on about, rather than the widely viewed Fox.
If you are going to fight dirty, you have to let other people throw the mud and you stand there and go isn't that shocking.
In comparison, the Clinton machine can call on friendlies in all the MSM and they can setup stories to run and run and run, with all Clinton has to say is well that is truly terrible isn't it and then back to resting.
So, by next summer we could well have: 1) Sterling/Euro at parity and all-of-a-sudden those foreign holidays are rather painful 2) Oil above $100 a barrel, which will cause a revolt amongst hauliers and other heavy drivers 3) An ongoing shit-show with regard to brexit negotiations 4) Inflation ramping upwards
75% of the above will hit people in the pockets pretty damn hard, and apart from the oil (where I have no idea what will happen) they're reasonably likely. However, note that the exchange rate will feed through to fuel costs in short order.
Theresa really, really, really should call an election sooner rather than later.
I know your prediction has the weasel "could" in it but why oil at $100?
Yes, regretting that as it's distracting from the point.
The remaining issues stand. Things are going to get worse for the man-in-the-street, and an early election (in my opinion) is a sound idea.
[I just find the variations in oil price unpredictable (another war in the ME would push it up substantially, for example), and felt that it would add to a perfect storm. Either way, the price at the pump will rise as sterling slides. But I concede I have no idea about the oil price other than a strong feeling it will tend to rise from its current position rather than fall.]
Of your predictions, 3 is the most likely. But the extent to which it would affect an election result - really have no feel for that.
Yes I get that, but that's the point of being in the EU. What is the point of being in the customs union but out of the EU? We have to maintain EU rules while losing our vote in writing those rules.
I don't think that staying in the customs union can quite be ruled out. Yes, we wouldn't be able to negotiate our own trade deals different from the EU ones with other countries, but for manufactured goods there would be big advantage compared with any other option other than remaining in the EU: namely that there would be zero paperwork as well as zero tariffs in trade of manufactured goods with our biggest export market. In that respect, it's actually significantly better than the EEA.
The advantages compared with being in the EU is that there would be no problem with freedom of movement (again, better than the EEA option)., and all the other areas, such as environmental rules, agriculture, fisheries, would be free of EU interference.
It wouldn't in itself help on services - we'd need a supplementary deal on that.
So it's not a bad option in many ways, and certainly in my view much better than the EEA route. That's mainly because I think the talk of 'free trade deals' with the rest of the world is largely fantasy; it is very unlikely that we'll end up with significantly better deals than the EU has, and that has to be balanced against the trade advantages of a customs union with the EU itself.
Of course, all this assumes that either of these options (EEA or customs union) are on the table. That depends on 27 other countries (30 in the case of the EEA), the Commission and the EU parliament.
Today Momentum have released details of its new initiative ‘Concerts for Corbyn’. The plan is to inspire the nation to vote for Labour with music. What’s more Paul Weller will play at the first of these concerts. Explaining his decision, the rocker said he agreed to perform as he likes ‘what Corbyn says and stands for’. So, is this a sign of the swing voter finally being wooed back by Labour? Alas not. It turns out that Weller actually abstained from voting in the general election — voicing his disappointment at the time that he wasn’t able to vote for… Russell Brand...
Looks like peace in the Labour party may not be breaking out just yet.
It reaffirms my opinion that Corbyn was right to sack her. She clearly was working for the MP's against the Labour party.
No.. she was as working for the Labour Party.. Corbyn is working for Corbyn.. the destruction of Labour is just an unfortunate consequence in his eyes.
So, by next summer we could well have: 1) Sterling/Euro at parity and all-of-a-sudden those foreign holidays are rather painful 2) Oil above $100 a barrel, which will cause a revolt amongst hauliers and other heavy drivers 3) An ongoing shit-show with regard to brexit negotiations 4) Inflation ramping upwards
75% of the above will hit people in the pockets pretty damn hard, and apart from the oil (where I have no idea what will happen) they're reasonably likely. However, note that the exchange rate will feed through to fuel costs in short order.
Theresa really, really, really should call an election sooner rather than later.
I know your prediction has the weasel "could" in it but why oil at $100?
Oil is unlikely to be above $100 for a sustained (more than 18 months) period of time, simply because there is so much 'unconventional' supply in the US and Canada that could come on stream if prices are high. Between the Permian, SCOOP, Alpine High, and the Canadian oil sands, there is a metric fuck tonne (that's a technical term) of oil that can come to market at a price between $60 and $80. Of course, it takes time to ramp up. And the US oil rig count (or number of frac trucks in operation) is not infinite, but if the oil prices rises (because of a war, say), then capex will be spend, and barrels will flow*.
* In the case of oil sands, it's more like ooze than flow.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
So, by next summer we could well have: 1) Sterling/Euro at parity and all-of-a-sudden those foreign holidays are rather painful 2) Oil above $100 a barrel, which will cause a revolt amongst hauliers and other heavy drivers 3) An ongoing shit-show with regard to brexit negotiations 4) Inflation ramping upwards
75% of the above will hit people in the pockets pretty damn hard, and apart from the oil (where I have no idea what will happen) they're reasonably likely. However, note that the exchange rate will feed through to fuel costs in short order.
Theresa really, really, really should call an election sooner rather than later.
I know your prediction has the weasel "could" in it but why oil at $100?
Yes, regretting that as it's distracting from the point.
The remaining issues stand. Things are going to get worse for the man-in-the-street, and an early election (in my opinion) is a sound idea.
[I just find the variations in oil price unpredictable (another war in the ME would push it up substantially, for example), and felt that it would add to a perfect storm. Either way, the price at the pump will rise as sterling slides. But I concede I have no idea about the oil price other than a strong feeling it will tend to rise from its current position rather than fall.]
We knew the was a risk of an economic hit. We took an infinitely larger ecomonic hit in WW2 to protect our independence and freedom.
If we suffer economically, so will the EU and it will be down to EU doctrinalness Imperialism and Inflexibilty. If that happens May will get a stonking majority as the people will blame the EU, and probably boycott European goods for good measure.
And if the EU get really nasty with any luck May will have the balls to find an excuse to freeze the weak German and Italian banks assets and crash the Eurozone into a heap.
If they want an economic war then they can have one. Puts Ireland in a bit of a pickle regretfully but the EU need to understand that this is two equals negotiating, not emperor and supplicant.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
In shell petrol station s itv ain't.. might be. at Tesco or the other supermarkets.. but that is -crap fuel.
That's mainly because I think the talk of 'free trade deals' with the rest of the world is largely fantasy
The only trade agreements between the G10 countries are the EU/EEA, NAFTA, and EFTA-Canada.
Remember when thinking about free trade agreements.
Japan is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with China. It has no free trade deal with the US. It has no free trade deal with the EU. It has no free trade deal with Russia.
Brazil is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with the US, Japan, Russia, India, etc. (It does have a trade agreement - more of an MFN thing - via Mercosur and the EU.)
China is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with the US, Japan, Russia, India, etc.
The US has very few free trade agreements, outside those defined by the (sadly increasingly defunct) TPP and TIPP.
And for those who think negotiating deals is easy, I'd point out that the China-Maldives discussions are currently in their fourth round. A deal is not considered imminent. And one would think that - given the Maldives imports only two things (tourism and fish) - and imports everything else that such a deal would be incredibly easy.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
In shell petrol station s itv ain't.. might be. at Tesco or the other supermarkets.. but that is -crap fuel.
I have been using tesco for years and still 1.09 a litre round here and a couple of p less in Bletchley.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
In shell petrol station s itv ain't.. might be. at Tesco or the other supermarkets.. but that is -crap fuel.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
1:16 in my nearest garage. Fortunately I can afford it.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
1:16 in my nearest garage. Fortunately I can afford it.
Yep I really think it is best to let another country run my country in return for cheaper Petrol.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
In shell petrol station s itv ain't.. might be. at Tesco or the other supermarkets.. but that is -crap fuel.
I have been using tesco for years and still 1.09 a litre round here and a couple of p less in Bletchley.
I use Morrisons or Sainsbury's deisel all the time , 108 p here, and never any issues.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
In shell petrol station s itv ain't.. might be. at Tesco or the other supermarkets.. but that is -crap fuel.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
1:16 in my nearest garage. Fortunately I can afford it.
You're getting ripped off Dr Fox. In a West London Shell it's £1.11!
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
1:16 in my nearest garage. Fortunately I can afford it.
You're getting ripped off Dr Fox. In a West London Shell it's £1.11!
That's mainly because I think the talk of 'free trade deals' with the rest of the world is largely fantasy
The only trade agreements between the G10 countries are the EU/EEA, NAFTA, and EFTA-Canada.
Remember when thinking about free trade agreements.
Japan is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with China. It has no free trade deal with the US. It has no free trade deal with the EU. It has no free trade deal with Russia.
Brazil is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with the US, Japan, Russia, India, etc. (It does have a trade agreement - more of an MFN thing - via Mercosur and the EU.)
China is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with the US, Japan, Russia, India, etc.
The US has very few free trade agreements, outside those defined by the (sadly increasingly defunct) TPP and TIPP.
And for those who think negotiating deals is easy, I'd point out that the China-Maldives discussions are currently in their fourth round. A deal is not considered imminent. And one would think that - given the Maldives imports only two things (tourism and fish) - and imports everything else that such a deal would be incredibly easy.
Look, you know and I know that we will probably end up within the EEA, but unless the EU are made to squarely realise before the negotiations we are prepared if sufficiently provoked, to do the economic equivalent of samson tearing down the pillars in Gaza bringing the building crashing down on everyone, then we have no chance of an acceptable deal.
They know what we are capable of - they are still rebuilding their cities after WW2. We need to make clear that we still have the balls, before A50 is sent, to be as ruthless.
Not doing that and coming away empty handed was Camerons major error. May is not going to repeat it.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
1:16 in my nearest garage. Fortunately I can afford it.
Yep I really think it is best to let another country run my country in return for cheaper Petrol.
We are all 15% poorer since Brexit, but I think the pound has further to fall. I am glad that I got so much of my assets out of Sterling in time.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
In shell petrol station s itv ain't.. might be. at Tesco or the other supermarkets.. but that is -crap fuel.
I have been using tesco for years and still 1.09 a litre round here and a couple of p less in Bletchley.
I use Morrisons or Sainsbury's deisel all the time , 108 p here, and never any issues.
The last thing supermarkets are going to do is piss their customers off by selling them loss leader petrol that damages their cars.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
1:16 in my nearest garage. Fortunately I can afford it.
Yep I really think it is best to let another country run my country in return for cheaper Petrol.
We are all 15% poorer since Brexit, but I think the pound has further to fall. I am glad that I got so much of my assets out of Sterling in time.
Currencies go up, currencies go down. If you want to enrich currency traders by swapping currencies thats your choice.
Unless fracking is banned in the US by HRC I fail to see how that would be likely.
she won't ban it when she gets so much donor money from the industry. This is what we should understand she isn't liked on the left because she's not that left wing. She is also hawkish.
Tories possibly overstated... Labour still are. 20 is about right.. speak to the WWC and see what they say... they say Corbyn is bonkers.. . .. and for those criticising me over my stance over the exchange rate...suck up the 5p a litre coming to a petrol pump near u v soon... as BBC news is reporting.
5p a litre, is that it? Considering that not long ago we were paying £1.30 per litre, 5p is absorbable.
Thats... just.. the beginning and people will not like it one bit
The price I pay at the pump has varied by more than 5p in the last month alone. If 5p is all we're talking about then that's a rounding error - if we were talking 20p then that would be noticeable.
Ostrich thinking.. it's been going up in bits for weeks.Last time I was in the UK at b beginning of Oct.. petrol was about 1.13. It'll be 1.20vv soon and quite possibly a lot more that that...
You're being ripped off - still 108 where I am.
1:16 in my nearest garage. Fortunately I can afford it.
Yep I really think it is best to let another country run my country in return for cheaper Petrol.
We are all 15% poorer since Brexit, but I think the pound has further to fall. I am glad that I got so much of my assets out of Sterling in time.
Japan is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with China. It has no free trade deal with the US. It has no free trade deal with the EU. It has no free trade deal with Russia.
That's putting it mildly. It's so un-free-trade that the shops sometimes run out of butter, because domestic producers aren't making enough and the government won't allow any more imports.
Comments
It's the independents that matter.
You also get the feeling that Donald Trump is being set up for another punch.
Don't be silly. Trump is more resurrected than anyone in the history of the planet. He is not a mere Jesus, who was only the son of God and had only one third voting rights.
As such, Plato reasons, the fabulously wealthy lack principles and a moral anchor outside of themselves. They feel no obligations to speak the truth or promote the common good, and no obligation to pay taxes or uphold contracts. To avoid these obligations, for such souls, is considered “smart.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/10/05/heres-what-plato-had-to-say-about-someone-like-donald-trump/
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2015/09/23/norway-will-share-eus-refugee-load/
They are big on total-immersion integration - IIRC in order to settle you have to agree to 180 hours of instruction on language and life in Norway. And there is some unease now, especially at people slipping in over the Russian border. But in general most people there are pro-immigration as long as it's handled in an orderly way. You're right that freedom of movement per se has never been a big deal there.
#PodestaEmails2 "conspire to produce an unaware and compliant citizenry" MUST READ https://t.co/iodEWPQfsY @wikileaks @TeamCavuto
Oh my goodness
PROOF primaries were rigged for Hillary. She got ALL questions beforehand in debates with Sanders! #PodestaEmails https://t.co/OzT69bevLF https://t.co/bGbzSPIWFg
Were she facing Rubio or Kasich it may well have been...
In the past there's been history of voter suppression.
After the clusterfuck in Florida 2000 when people were barred from voting simply because they had names that sounded like felons, and the general vorter purge, voter registration was ramped up, especially by the NAACP and the DNC.
Looks like Die Welt has radically redesigned its website.
https://www.welt.de/
The House of Saud are about to cut real wages and benefits due to low oil prices.. That should create a lot of unrest...
Just like inflation at 5% would not be ok, just because it was at almost 20% in the 70s. (Or at 5.5% in 2011).
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/785526988475863040
The dems may find they are touring the tenements and trailer parks rounding up voters who then put X against the Donald
Another problem is that Trump is hated by all the MSM, even Fox. The stunt he pulled yesterday wasn't even been covered on Fox.
Trump knows how to get himself on tv, but he doesn't have the mechanisms to get people covering other stuff with him not been seen to be involved. So wikileaks is left to the Alex Jones of this world to bang on about, rather than the widely viewed Fox.
If you are going to fight dirty, you have to let other people throw the mud and you stand there and go isn't that shocking.
In comparison, the Clinton machine can call on friendlies in all the MSM and they can setup stories to run and run and run, with all Clinton has to say is well that is truly terrible isn't it and then back to resting.
Inflation is supposed to be 2%. It is currently dangerously below target and has been for five years and counting. Even if inflation reaches 3% it would be closer to target than where we are now.
Looks like peace in the Labour party may not be breaking out just yet.
For a post industrial hellhole south of Sunderland, Washington does have a good local paper.
Donald J. Trump – Verified account @realDonaldTrump
Paul Ryan should spend more time on balancing the budget, jobs and illegal immigration and not waste his time on fighting Republican nominee
--
reap, reap, reap
You're going to reap just what you sow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYEC4TZsy-Y
https://knoema.com/yxptpab/crude-oil-price-forecast-long-term-2016-to-2025-data-and-charts
That's the argument for EEA in a nutshell.
The remaining issues stand. Things are going to get worse for the man-in-the-street, and an early election (in my opinion) is a sound idea.
[I just find the variations in oil price unpredictable (another war in the ME would push it up substantially, for example), and felt that it would add to a perfect storm. Either way, the price at the pump will rise as sterling slides. But I concede I have no idea about the oil price other than a strong feeling it will tend to rise from its current position rather than fall.]
Today Momentum have released details of its new initiative ‘Concerts for Corbyn’. The plan is to inspire the nation to vote for Labour with music. What’s more Paul Weller will play at the first of these concerts. Explaining his decision, the rocker said he agreed to perform as he likes ‘what Corbyn says and stands for’. So, is this a sign of the swing voter finally being wooed back by Labour? Alas not. It turns out that Weller actually abstained from voting in the general election — voicing his disappointment at the time that he wasn’t able to vote for… Russell Brand...
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/corbyns-latest-cheerleader-wanted-vote-russell-brand/
The betting markets have moved independently of my long held view that Trump has only a 10% chance.
Betfair had him at 25% when I still had him at 10%, they had him at 16% when I had him at 0%.
Since the betting markets constantly overrate Trump in my view, he should go back up in the 20's.
She clearly was working for the MP's against the Labour party.
The advantages compared with being in the EU is that there would be no problem with freedom of movement (again, better than the EEA option)., and all the other areas, such as environmental rules, agriculture, fisheries, would be free of EU interference.
It wouldn't in itself help on services - we'd need a supplementary deal on that.
So it's not a bad option in many ways, and certainly in my view much better than the EEA route. That's mainly because I think the talk of 'free trade deals' with the rest of the world is largely fantasy; it is very unlikely that we'll end up with significantly better deals than the EU has, and that has to be balanced against the trade advantages of a customs union with the EU itself.
Of course, all this assumes that either of these options (EEA or customs union) are on the table. That depends on 27 other countries (30 in the case of the EEA), the Commission and the EU parliament.
* In the case of oil sands, it's more like ooze than flow.
If we suffer economically, so will the EU and it will be down to EU doctrinalness Imperialism and Inflexibilty. If that happens May will get a stonking majority as the people will blame the EU, and probably boycott European goods for good measure.
And if the EU get really nasty with any luck May will have the balls to find an excuse to freeze the weak German and Italian banks assets and crash the Eurozone into a heap.
If they want an economic war then they can have one. Puts Ireland in a bit of a pickle regretfully but the EU need to understand that this is two equals negotiating, not emperor and supplicant.
Remember when thinking about free trade agreements.
Japan is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with China. It has no free trade deal with the US. It has no free trade deal with the EU. It has no free trade deal with Russia.
Brazil is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with the US, Japan, Russia, India, etc. (It does have a trade agreement - more of an MFN thing - via Mercosur and the EU.)
China is not particularly free trade. It has no free trade deal with the US, Japan, Russia, India, etc.
The US has very few free trade agreements, outside those defined by the (sadly increasingly defunct) TPP and TIPP.
And for those who think negotiating deals is easy, I'd point out that the China-Maldives discussions are currently in their fourth round. A deal is not considered imminent. And one would think that - given the Maldives imports only two things (tourism and fish) - and imports everything else that such a deal would be incredibly easy.
Clinton 45 .. Trump 35
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Polls Plus - 79.8 - 20.2
Polls Only - 83.6 - 16.4
Now Cast - 87.7 - 12.3
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now
They know what we are capable of - they are still rebuilding their cities after WW2. We need to make clear that we still have the balls, before A50 is sent, to be as ruthless.
Not doing that and coming away empty handed was Camerons major error. May is not going to repeat it.