@PickardJE: Keir Starmer tells Commons that neither Out voters nor In supporters want government to "take an axe to our economy" through a Hard Brexit.
@tobyhelm: Excellent Keir Starmer asks what the point is of parl sovereignty if parl is given no role in approving the terms of Brexit. Key question.
But he now wants a second referendum. Oops, edit, he wants a vote in parliament on the deal.
Pitty that EU rules don't allow a parliamentary vote on Brexit. He has to ask for one after we leave the EU.
Was there a debate last night? All I saw was an episode of Jerry Springer. After a promising start where i thought it would be one of the absolute classics episodes, it was a bit disappointing when there was no chair throwing or the guests having to be restrained by the security.
They should've let the WWF host one of the debates.
What hosted by a Giant Panda? Or do you mean the WWE?
As a well known federalist I preferred the old name.
In Brexit news, the pound is below 1 euro at many bureaux de change.
No wonder EU exporters like the funghi's from Ireland below are squealing.
Should make EU leaders calling for more pain for the Uk even less popular.
With the trade imbalance we have, the £ was really like the Wile E Coyote chasing road runner off the cliff. Brexit has just made him look down. It was going to happen sooner or later. It's a good thing. It will help rebalance the economy by hopefully correcting some of that trade imbalance.
It adds to the effective loosening of policy without (yet again) screwing interest rates to the floor. Frankly I'm in the "whatever it takes to get interest rates going up brigade". Yes out of shameless self interest, but actually also because it's for the long term good of the country too. Savers are being stuffed, pension schemes are a massive drag on investment, and house prices are insane which is also not doing youngsters any good trying to get on the ladder. It's not painless, and shades of grey and all that, but it's definitely better than a high £ and the BoE just mindlessly turning the screw on interest rates and to hell with the consequences.
Agreed. Unless the pound slid to silly levels which I cant see happening this is a long overdue correction with very positive effects that Brexit has triggered not caused.
It is also putting the squeeze on EU exporters to the UK who are going to be none too pleased if their governments press for hair shirt tactics pour encourage les autres.
Something tells me this will now no longer matter.
Since Trump won the debate, Ryan and the other NeverTrump GOP'ers are screwed.
They can't re-endorse Trump after denouncing him and calling for him to drop out.
If Trump loses the election they are going to be blamed by republicans and they will be exiled by their own voters.
If Trump wins the election he will sideline them as President, since he won't owe them any favours.
The only winners are those who stuck with Trump over the weekend.
At the moment Clinton looks nailed on for the White House. The Senate Majority could go either way. Leaving aside the party politics, the Senate is logically the place for the GOP to focus its efforts.
@paulwaugh: This must be a record. Not one, not two, but THREE former party leaders hv spoken in last 10 minutes on DD Brexit statment: IDS, EdM, Clegg
@JohnRentoul: Nick Clegg quoting David Davis's words from 1999 back to him on parliamentary control of the executive.
The problem with the 18-24 voting category isn't just that their turnout tends to be low, it's also that there aren't all that many of them in the first place. I don't think they comprise more than about 10% of the electorate, and that isn't much when you only have 5 groups altogether. Having an 18-30 category would be more useful.
Do 18-30 holidays still exist?
My godfather once offered me a choice between a shotgun and an 18-30 holiday
Something tells me this will now no longer matter.
Since Trump won the debate, Ryan and the other NeverTrump GOP'ers are screwed.
They can't re-endorse Trump after denouncing him and calling for him to drop out.
If Trump loses the election they are going to be blamed by republicans and they will be exiled by their own voters.
If Trump wins the election he will sideline them as President, since he won't owe them any favours.
The only winners are those who stuck with Trump over the weekend.
I doubt they'll be blamed if Trump loses. It will be an "I told you so" moment for the NeverTrumps.
Not any more. Things have changed since Saturday.
They moved prematurely against Trump, it's all reminiscent of the Corbyn situation in the summer, where Labour voters blamed the MP's who dumped Corbyn and re-elected him with a bigger mandate.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
I can see why the Executive does it. They don't have a mandate for any particular course of action beyond leaving the EU. OTOH if they don't get buy in from MPs now they will be on their own when it all goes wrong. If they put their plans to Parliament, they can say, you voted for it.
Something tells me this will now no longer matter.
Since Trump won the debate, Ryan and the other NeverTrump GOP'ers are screwed.
They can't re-endorse Trump after denouncing him and calling for him to drop out.
If Trump loses the election they are going to be blamed by republicans and they will be exiled by their own voters.
If Trump wins the election he will sideline them as President, since he won't owe them any favours.
The only winners are those who stuck with Trump over the weekend.
I doubt they'll be blamed if Trump loses. It will be an "I told you so" moment for the NeverTrumps.
Not any more. Things have changed since Saturday.
They moved prematurely against Trump, it's all reminiscent of the Corbyn situation in the summer, where Labour voters blamed the MP's who dumped Corbyn and re-elected him with a bigger mandate.
There is a world of difference though in that in the Labour Party the Corbynistas are the electorate.
In the USA come November the entire nation is the electorate.
Post November the NeverTrumps will be able to say "I told you say" in the same was as the Labour MPs would be able to after a General Election.
Crucially that includes the phrase 'all part of the European Union'. Because of Cameron's complacency and the EU's intransigence the pretend deal put to the people wasn't enough to persuade us to stay, so that manifesto is hardly relevant now.
Something tells me this will now no longer matter.
Since Trump won the debate, Ryan and the other NeverTrump GOP'ers are screwed.
They can't re-endorse Trump after denouncing him and calling for him to drop out.
If Trump loses the election they are going to be blamed by republicans and they will be exiled by their own voters.
If Trump wins the election he will sideline them as President, since he won't owe them any favours.
The only winners are those who stuck with Trump over the weekend.
I doubt they'll be blamed if Trump loses. It will be an "I told you so" moment for the NeverTrumps.
Not any more. Things have changed since Saturday.
They moved prematurely against Trump, it's all reminiscent of the Corbyn situation in the summer, where Labour voters blamed the MP's who dumped Corbyn and re-elected him with a bigger mandate.
Labour voters did NOT reelect Corbyn. Labour MEMBERS – a tiny selectorate representative of pretty nothing at all – did. The US president is elected by the population of the US. No wonder Corbynistas struggle with simple electoral dynamics.
Was there a debate last night? All I saw was an episode of Jerry Springer. After a promising start where i thought it would be one of the absolute classics episodes, it was a bit disappointing when there was no chair throwing or the guests having to be restrained by the security.
They should've let the WWF host one of the debates.
What hosted by a Giant Panda? Or do you mean the WWE?
As a well known federalist I preferred the old name.
In Brexit news, the pound is below 1 euro at many bureaux de change.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Something tells me this will now no longer matter.
Since Trump won the debate, Ryan and the other NeverTrump GOP'ers are screwed.
They can't re-endorse Trump after denouncing him and calling for him to drop out.
If Trump loses the election they are going to be blamed by republicans and they will be exiled by their own voters.
If Trump wins the election he will sideline them as President, since he won't owe them any favours.
The only winners are those who stuck with Trump over the weekend.
I doubt they'll be blamed if Trump loses. It will be an "I told you so" moment for the NeverTrumps.
Not any more. Things have changed since Saturday.
They moved prematurely against Trump, it's all reminiscent of the Corbyn situation in the summer, where Labour voters blamed the MP's who dumped Corbyn and re-elected him with a bigger mandate.
There is a world of difference though in that in the Labour Party the Corbynistas are the electorate.
In the USA come November the entire nation is the electorate.
Post November the NeverTrumps will be able to say "I told you say" in the same was as the Labour MPs would be able to after a General Election.
The will say "I told you so", but no one will listen to them and they will get the blame from their own voters.
Paul Ryan will be pelted with vegetables by angry republicans.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 14 points — NBC/WSJ poll (Oct. 8-9)
2-way Clinton 52 Trump 38
4-way Clinton 46 Trump 35 Johnson 9 Stein 2
who said that the tapes wouldnt hurt trump? This is from friday to sunday
10% don't knows in the 2-way? That's a lot of shy-Trump support.
Don't know + Trump tends to be fairly constant. When a Trump scandal is at its peak, the don't knows go up and Trump goes down, but Clinton does not gain much.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
That's factually incorrect. We already have acknowledgement from the EU Commission that we are under strain from migration, due to the ability of services and infrastructure to cope with population growth. This was part of Cameron's deal on benefits.
In this case, the EEA 112 comes into play, and we should expect any retaliatory measures under art 113 to be very minimal because the proportionality test will be met.
FOM continues, but under restrictions that look very much like the initial 1992 position - self sufficiency test might be the simple way ahead.
Something tells me this will now no longer matter.
Since Trump won the debate, Ryan and the other NeverTrump GOP'ers are screwed.
They can't re-endorse Trump after denouncing him and calling for him to drop out.
If Trump loses the election they are going to be blamed by republicans and they will be exiled by their own voters.
If Trump wins the election he will sideline them as President, since he won't owe them any favours.
The only winners are those who stuck with Trump over the weekend.
I doubt they'll be blamed if Trump loses. It will be an "I told you so" moment for the NeverTrumps.
Not any more. Things have changed since Saturday.
They moved prematurely against Trump, it's all reminiscent of the Corbyn situation in the summer, where Labour voters blamed the MP's who dumped Corbyn and re-elected him with a bigger mandate.
There is a world of difference though in that in the Labour Party the Corbynistas are the electorate.
In the USA come November the entire nation is the electorate.
Post November the NeverTrumps will be able to say "I told you say" in the same was as the Labour MPs would be able to after a General Election.
The will say "I told you so", but no one will listen to them and they will get the blame from their own voters.
Paul Ryan will be pelted with vegetables by angry republicans.
NeverTrumpers are screwed either way.
No, there's a massive difference between pre-vote and post-vote. Almost nobody likes backing a loser after the fact. Right now Trumpers and Corbynistas are in denial - just as the Foot backers were in denial in the 80s until the 83 General Election.
After November no Republican will want to be seen dead with Trump.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
From the excellent article Mr Navabi linked to earlier:
Will Brexit take the U.K. out of the single market?
Membership of the single market, according to the EU treaty and settled EU doctrine, requires upholding four supposedly indivisible freedoms -- free trade in goods, services and capital, and free movement of people.
The fourth freedom is avowedly political, not economic: Its purpose is to dissolve the EU's internal borders.
This supranational character of the European Union project is the very thing Britain objects to, and the very thing the EU insists on.
So yes, Brexit means rejecting the fourth freedom, which in turn means no longer being a member of the single market.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
Eventually, we have to be outside the EEA, because the Appendixes contain far too much legislation which is not necessary for the smooth operation of the market. But that isn't a sensible first move - because trade deals take too long for the 2 year window.
BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 14 points — NBC/WSJ poll (Oct. 8-9)
2-way Clinton 52 Trump 38
4-way Clinton 46 Trump 35 Johnson 9 Stein 2
who said that the tapes wouldnt hurt trump? This is from friday to sunday
10% don't knows in the 2-way? That's a lot of shy-Trump support.
Don't know + Trump tends to be fairly constant. When a Trump scandal is at its peak, the don't knows go up and Trump goes down, but Clinton does not gain much.
LOL, chin up I guess, still wouldn't erode the lead tho.
BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 14 points — NBC/WSJ poll (Oct. 8-9)
2-way Clinton 52 Trump 38
4-way Clinton 46 Trump 35 Johnson 9 Stein 2
who said that the tapes wouldnt hurt trump? This is from friday to sunday
10% don't knows in the 2-way? That's a lot of shy-Trump support.
Don't know + Trump tends to be fairly constant. When a Trump scandal is at its peak, the don't knows go up and Trump goes down, but Clinton does not gain much.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
The (only) way to solve immigration is to solve our benefits system. Clearly we could implement a 5 year qualification period as Germany is trying to do and Brexit is the perfect excuse to do so - as part of the restructuring of our economy....
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
The (only) way to solve immigration is to solve our benefits system. Clearly we could implement a 5 year qualification period as Germany is trying to do and Brexit is the perfect excuse to do so - as part of the restructuring of our economy....
Yes. Curious that a Conservative government has not used the opportunity to use the situation to shape welfare in that way.
The fourth freedom is avowedly political, not economic: Its purpose is to dissolve the EU's internal borders.
This supranational character of the European Union project is the very thing Britain objects to, and the very thing the EU insists on.
So why do countries which are not members of the EU sign up to it?
Because when they did so, their political classes wanted to be members. Only one country is actually affected by it though - Norway. Iceland simply doesn't get the numbers to make it an issue, Lichtenstein has an exemption from FOM, and Switzerland is about to find out what happens when you crash out of a poorly drafted bilateral agreement which isn't compatible with your own democracy.
BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 14 points — NBC/WSJ poll (Oct. 8-9)
2-way Clinton 52 Trump 38
4-way Clinton 46 Trump 35 Johnson 9 Stein 2
who said that the tapes wouldnt hurt trump? This is from friday to sunday
Of course the Tapes killed Trump, but his debate victory resurected him.
I'm curious to see post-debate polling. My guess after the debate is that Trump should be back to where he was before the tapes.
hmmm. What are you basing Trump winning the debate on? Your subjective view isn't being borne out by the post debate polls.
Unless it's a focus group you can't guarantee that the people being polled even watched or paid attention to the debate. People lie or answer a different question.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Those foaming about it are just useful idiots. The whole point is to make the EU realise we will walk away with our heads held high if they are not reasonable.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 14 points — NBC/WSJ poll (Oct. 8-9)
2-way Clinton 52 Trump 38
4-way Clinton 46 Trump 35 Johnson 9 Stein 2
who said that the tapes wouldnt hurt trump? This is from friday to sunday
Of course the Tapes killed Trump, but his debate victory resurected him.
I'm curious to see post-debate polling. My guess after the debate is that Trump should be back to where he was before the tapes.
hmmm. What are you basing Trump winning the debate on? Your subjective view isn't being borne out by the post debate polls.
Unless it's a focus group you can't guarantee that the people being polled even watched or paid attention to the debate. People lie or answer a different question.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Those foaming about it are just useful idiots. The whole point is to make the EU realise we will walk away with our heads held high if they are not reasonable.
Basic pre negotiating FFS.
Following Ian Dunt will kill more brain cells than banging your head against a brick wall.
No, there's a massive difference between pre-vote and post-vote. Almost nobody likes backing a loser after the fact. Right now Trumpers and Corbynistas are in denial - just as the Foot backers were in denial in the 80s until the 83 General Election.
After November no Republican will want to be seen dead with Trump.
If Trump loses the election after last nights debate victory, republican voters will blame his loss on NeverTrump stabing Trump in the back and voting Hillary.
That's the key thing, Trump is now losing because of NeverTrump not because he is a bad debater as before.
Trump is now seen as a winner who has been betrayed.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
Eventually, we have to be outside the EEA, because the Appendixes contain far too much legislation which is not necessary for the smooth operation of the market. But that isn't a sensible first move - because trade deals take too long for the 2 year window.
I think it's simpler than that. The EEA won't work because we will never be willing to pass into law statutes that we have had no say in implementing, even as a horsetrade. The EU and EU-lite in the form of the EEA Single Market is a multilateral body. You sign up for the whole package, including future changes. You can't negotiate that as a bilateral agreement. Switzerland tried, but it won't be a model for us.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
The (only) way to solve immigration is to solve our benefits system. Clearly we could implement a 5 year qualification period as Germany is trying to do and Brexit is the perfect excuse to do so - as part of the restructuring of our economy....
Yes. Curious that a Conservative government has not used the opportunity to use the situation to shape welfare in that way.
I'm hoping its part of the autumn statement - my worry is that its in the too hard - can't be bothered to deal with it pile when this is the only time in a generation that we can really do it.
Especially as our entire structural budget deficit is due to Gordon Brown's tax credits and their insane generosity if you find a 16 hour a week job.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
Eventually, we have to be outside the EEA, because the Appendixes contain far too much legislation which is not necessary for the smooth operation of the market. But that isn't a sensible first move - because trade deals take too long for the 2 year window.
I think it's simpler than that. The EEA won't work because we will never be willing to pass into law statutes that we have had no say in implementing, even as a horsetrade. The EU and EU-lite in the form of the EEA Single Market is a multilateral body. You sign up for the whole package, including future changes. You can't negotiate that as a bilateral agreement. Switzerland tried, but it won't be a model for us.
So what you're saying is that there will be no treaty of any nature. Ain;t gonna fly. Governments don't vote to leave office.
No, there's a massive difference between pre-vote and post-vote. Almost nobody likes backing a loser after the fact. Right now Trumpers and Corbynistas are in denial - just as the Foot backers were in denial in the 80s until the 83 General Election.
After November no Republican will want to be seen dead with Trump.
If Trump loses the election after last nights debate victory, republican voters will blame his loss on NeverTrump stabing Trump in the back and voting Hillary.
That's the key thing, Trump is now losing because of NeverTrump not because he is a bad debater as before.
Trump is now seen as a winner who has been betrayed.
NeverTrumper's are screwed screwed screwed.
I think you'll fond Trump is the one who is screwd, question is will he brimg down Congress Reps with him?
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
'Worst of *both* worlds'
Literally, I think they meant the EEA had bad features of both options, but it wasn't as absolutely bad as Pure Brexit. "Worst of both worlds" trips off the tongue easier than that long phrase
I think this is now a buy time on betfair for Trump.
The worst national polls will be out today which will measure the situation before his debate victory and after the tapes.
The worst state polls will come by the end of the week, state polls always lag national polls.
By next Monday Trump's victory will be starting to seep through in the polls and his price will go up.
Of course there might be another scandal by then, so it's a risk, but barring it this should be Trump's bottom.
The problem is that polls increasingly seem to be a judgement on recent events like media stories and debates rather than a statement of voting intent.
I think this is now a buy time on betfair for Trump.
The worst national polls will be out today which will measure the situation before his debate victory and after the tapes.
The worst state polls will come by the end of the week, state polls always lag national polls.
By next Monday Trump's victory will be starting to seep through in the polls and his price will go up.
Of course there might be another scandal by then, so it's a risk, but barring it this should be Trump's bottom.
I must have missed the third debate that Trump won ....
Who knew .. who watched .... ??
True the third debate is coming up, that's why I say it's a risk, there is enough time to beat Trump back down.
But Trump suprisingly did a good job on the foreign policy questions on this debate. And Hillary did worse. The 3rd debate which is on foreign policy should be an interesting one.
I'm not questioning my assumption that Trump has only got a 10% chance to win, but it's 10% more than I gave him on Sunday morning.
Spare a thought for those GOP officials who denounced Trump before he won.
Now they are stuck in the voterless desert between Hillary voters and Trump voters.
The smartest people are those who waited for the debate just in case.
Trump didn't 'win' though, both the CNN and YouGov polls gave it to Hillary.
Regardless of the polls, it was a win for Trump because:
- It put paid to the idea that Trump will drop out - He had Hillary on the defensive and landed some real blows - It tees up the third debate to be about his platform rather than about him
But Trump suprisingly did a good job on the foreign policy questions on this debate. And Hillary did worse. The 3rd debate which is on foreign policy should be an interesting one.
Foreign policy is also the best topic for Trump to run as me vs. the establishment.
What is Hillary, or any of the NeverTrump Republican's answer to, "We spent $4tr in the Middle East and got nothing while our country is in debt and falling to pieces..."
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
Eventually, we have to be outside the EEA, because the Appendixes contain far too much legislation which is not necessary for the smooth operation of the market. But that isn't a sensible first move - because trade deals take too long for the 2 year window.
I think it's simpler than that. The EEA won't work because we will never be willing to pass into law statutes that we have had no say in implementing, even as a horsetrade. The EU and EU-lite in the form of the EEA Single Market is a multilateral body. You sign up for the whole package, including future changes. You can't negotiate that as a bilateral agreement. Switzerland tried, but it won't be a model for us.
So what you're saying is that there will be no treaty of any nature. Ain;t gonna fly. Governments don't vote to leave office.
There will be an Exit Agreement at the end of the Article 50 two year period and there will almost certainly be treaty(s) ratified after a period of eight years or more. We will also need to sort out our WTO schedules, which could take five years or so and the EU will be heavily involved in that. There is at the very least going to be a very uncomfortable decade ahead of us.
I think this is now a buy time on betfair for Trump.
The worst national polls will be out today which will measure the situation before his debate victory and after the tapes.
The worst state polls will come by the end of the week, state polls always lag national polls.
By next Monday Trump's victory will be starting to seep through in the polls and his price will go up.
Of course there might be another scandal by then, so it's a risk, but barring it this should be Trump's bottom.
I must have missed the third debate that Trump won ....
Who knew .. who watched .... ??
True the third debate is coming up, that's why I say it's a risk, there is enough time to beat Trump back down.
But Trump suprisingly did a good job on the foreign policy questions on this debate. And Hillary did worse. The 3rd debate which is on foreign policy should be an interesting one.
I'm not questioning my assumption that Trump has only got a 10% chance to win, but it's 10% more than I gave him on Sunday morning.
I'm confused.
Betfair has hillary @ 80% & trump @ 17.5%
If you think he has a 10% chance, but the market has him at ~17.5% then trump is still a sell, even if your estimation has gone up from 0% (or whatever it was) to 10%.
Surely you'll only buy him on betfair if you think he has a greater than 17.5% chance?
The problem with the 18-24 voting category isn't just that their turnout tends to be low, it's also that there aren't all that many of them in the first place. I don't think they comprise more than about 10% of the electorate, and that isn't much when you only have 5 groups altogether. Having an 18-30 category would be more useful.
Do 18-30 holidays still exist?
My godfather once offered me a choice between a shotgun and an 18-30 holiday
The fourth freedom is avowedly political, not economic: Its purpose is to dissolve the EU's internal borders.
This supranational character of the European Union project is the very thing Britain objects to, and the very thing the EU insists on.
So why do countries which are not members of the EU sign up to it?
Because when they did so, their political classes wanted to be members. Only one country is actually affected by it though - Norway. Iceland simply doesn't get the numbers to make it an issue, Lichtenstein has an exemption from FOM, and Switzerland is about to find out what happens when you crash out of a poorly drafted bilateral agreement which isn't compatible with your own democracy.
Don't forget that before joining Schengen, Norway and Iceland were part of an existing free movement area, the Nordic Passport Union.
No, there's a massive difference between pre-vote and post-vote. Almost nobody likes backing a loser after the fact. Right now Trumpers and Corbynistas are in denial - just as the Foot backers were in denial in the 80s until the 83 General Election.
After November no Republican will want to be seen dead with Trump.
If Trump loses the election after last nights debate victory, republican voters will blame his loss on NeverTrump stabing Trump in the back and voting Hillary.
That's the key thing, Trump is now losing because of NeverTrump not because he is a bad debater as before.
Trump is now seen as a winner who has been betrayed.
NeverTrumper's are screwed screwed screwed.
Who sees Trump as a winner. He's lost both debates. He sunk himself, he's not been betrayed.
@PickardJE: Keir Starmer tells Commons that neither Out voters nor In supporters want government to "take an axe to our economy" through a Hard Brexit.
@tobyhelm: Excellent Keir Starmer asks what the point is of parl sovereignty if parl is given no role in approving the terms of Brexit. Key question.
But he now wants a second referendum. Oops, edit, he wants a vote in parliament on the deal.
He may as well ask what is the point of voters if they are to be ignored,
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
The (only) way to solve immigration is to solve our benefits system. Clearly we could implement a 5 year qualification period as Germany is trying to do and Brexit is the perfect excuse to do so - as part of the restructuring of our economy....
Yes. Curious that a Conservative government has not used the opportunity to use the situation to shape welfare in that way.
I'm hoping its part of the autumn statement - my worry is that its in the too hard - can't be bothered to deal with it pile when this is the only time in a generation that we can really do it.
Especially as our entire structural budget deficit is due to Gordon Brown's tax credits and their insane generosity if you find a 16 hour a week job.
And many fail to take account just how informed people are about which system works best around the world for them in their situation. Whether its claiming asylum or coming for work. The information on which nation gives you what is out there and shared on social media.
Add the high minimum wage, very high tax free allowance, the in work benefits, the child tax credit and child benefit.
This all adds up to extraordinary draw for a main earner in a household in say Poland taking a job in the UK of £13k, more or less full time minimum wage. If he left two kids he will get the following:
£13,000 salary £8,164 child and working tax credit £1,788 child benefit - £400 income tax
Post tax annual salary of £22, 552.
The average annual Romanian salary is €4,800.
It's not hard to see why they come even to do the lowest paid work.
So, by next summer we could well have: 1) Sterling/Euro at parity and all-of-a-sudden those foreign holidays are rather painful 2) Oil above $100 a barrel, which will cause a revolt amongst hauliers and other heavy drivers 3) An ongoing shit-show with regard to brexit negotiations 4) Inflation ramping upwards
75% of the above will hit people in the pockets pretty damn hard, and apart from the oil (where I have no idea what will happen) they're reasonably likely. However, note that the exchange rate will feed through to fuel costs in short order.
Theresa really, really, really should call an election sooner rather than later.
@IanDunt: The Davis/May trick: 1) Pretend leaving EU is the same as leaving single market. 2) Say 'hard Brexit doesn't exist'.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Not leaving the single market is akin to saying that unlimited immigration from the EU will not change one dot following brexit. Is that really is a sustainable position?
Remainers spent months slagging off Norway and saying they had 'the worst of both worlds'. If so, that implies that if we're outside the EU we ought to be outside the EEA too. Now they say doing so would be a disaster.
Although I voted Remain and always thought there would be a hard Brexit, I don't think the position is an illogical one. Both EEA and hard Brexit are bad options and much worse than the one we ultimately rejected - membership of the EU. Having rejected the best option, we have to decide on the least bad option of the ones still available to us.
'Worst of *both* worlds'
Literally, I think they meant the EEA had bad features of both options, but it wasn't as absolutely bad as Pure Brexit. "Worst of both worlds" trips off the tongue easier than that long phrase
No, they definitely meant it was worse than either Completely In or Completely Out.
Comments
Since Trump won the debate, Ryan and the other NeverTrump GOP'ers are screwed.
They can't re-endorse Trump after denouncing him and calling for him to drop out.
If Trump loses the election they are going to be blamed by republicans and they will be exiled by their own voters.
If Trump wins the election he will sideline them as President, since he won't owe them any favours.
The only winners are those who stuck with Trump over the weekend.
He has to ask for one after we leave the EU.
Ha ha.
It is also putting the squeeze on EU exporters to the UK who are going to be none too pleased if their governments press for hair shirt tactics pour encourage les autres.
@JohnRentoul: Nick Clegg quoting David Davis's words from 1999 back to him on parliamentary control of the executive.
@IanDunt: 3) Frame opposition to leaving single market as opposition to leaving EU.
@IanDunt: It is a cheap trick and it will not survive the next six months. Too obvious.
Things have changed since Saturday.
They moved prematurely against Trump, it's all reminiscent of the Corbyn situation in the summer, where Labour voters blamed the MP's who dumped Corbyn and re-elected him with a bigger mandate.
"Free trade beneficial to both sides"
In the USA come November the entire nation is the electorate.
Post November the NeverTrumps will be able to say "I told you say" in the same was as the Labour MPs would be able to after a General Election.
BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 14 points — NBC/WSJ poll (Oct. 8-9)
2-way
Clinton 52
Trump 38
4-way
Clinton 46
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 2
who said that the tapes wouldnt hurt trump? This is from friday to sunday
Paul Ryan will be pelted with vegetables by angry republicans.
NeverTrumpers are screwed either way.
That is the highest Dem advantage in the NBC/WSJ poll since Oct '13 (gvt shutdown)
I'm curious to see post-debate polling.
My guess after the debate is that Trump should be back to where he was before the tapes.
Don't know + Trump tends to be fairly constant. When a Trump scandal is at its peak, the don't knows go up and Trump goes down, but Clinton does not gain much.
In this case, the EEA 112 comes into play, and we should expect any retaliatory measures under art 113 to be very minimal because the proportionality test will be met.
FOM continues, but under restrictions that look very much like the initial 1992 position - self sufficiency test might be the simple way ahead.
After November no Republican will want to be seen dead with Trump.
The worst national polls will be out today which will measure the situation before his debate victory and after the tapes.
The worst state polls will come by the end of the week, state polls always lag national polls.
By next Monday Trump's victory will be starting to seep through in the polls and his price will go up.
Of course there might be another scandal by then, so it's a risk, but barring it this should be Trump's bottom.
Will Brexit take the U.K. out of the single market?
Membership of the single market, according to the EU treaty and settled EU doctrine, requires upholding four supposedly indivisible freedoms -- free trade in goods, services and capital, and free movement of people.
The fourth freedom is avowedly political, not economic: Its purpose is to dissolve the EU's internal borders.
This supranational character of the European Union project is the very thing Britain objects to, and the very thing the EU insists on.
So yes, Brexit means rejecting the fourth freedom, which in turn means no longer being a member of the single market.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-09/ditch-the-hard-brexit-fallacy
Yeah, Clinton is really in trouble now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk4UDSlxENw
Basic pre negotiating FFS.
That's the key thing, Trump is now losing because of NeverTrump not because he is a bad debater as before.
Trump is now seen as a winner who has been betrayed.
NeverTrumper's are screwed screwed screwed.
Washington Examiner
JUST IN: Hacked email reveals Hillary Clinton ally Neera Tanden questioning if David Brock is a GOP plant https://t.co/V8beVnoyUy https://t.co/uq6DeFFJ6Y
Especially as our entire structural budget deficit is due to Gordon Brown's tax credits and their insane generosity if you find a 16 hour a week job.
Wells Fargo scandal.
Who knew .. who watched .... ??
"I'm also starting to worry that if this story gets out, we are screwed." - Clinton chief advisor Doug Band https://t.co/4qv2sLIfCH
But Trump suprisingly did a good job on the foreign policy questions on this debate.
And Hillary did worse.
The 3rd debate which is on foreign policy should be an interesting one.
I'm not questioning my assumption that Trump has only got a 10% chance to win, but it's 10% more than I gave him on Sunday morning.
Boom!
*insert political party* surge
I do think that you are remarkably out of sympathy with the present direction of the Conservative Party.
What is Hillary, or any of the NeverTrump Republican's answer to, "We spent $4tr in the Middle East and got nothing while our country is in debt and falling to pieces..."
"We are great and Russia is evil," won't cut it.
Betfair has hillary @ 80% & trump @ 17.5%
If you think he has a 10% chance, but the market has him at ~17.5% then trump is still a sell, even if your estimation has gone up from 0% (or whatever it was) to 10%.
Surely you'll only buy him on betfair if you think he has a greater than 17.5% chance?
I have a feeling of a new scandal coming...
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/785502365130555393
Add the high minimum wage, very high tax free allowance, the in work benefits, the child tax credit and child benefit.
This all adds up to extraordinary draw for a main earner in a household in say Poland taking a job in the UK of £13k, more or less full time minimum wage. If he left two kids he will get the following:
£13,000 salary
£8,164 child and working tax credit
£1,788 child benefit
- £400 income tax
Post tax annual salary of £22, 552.
The average annual Romanian salary is €4,800.
It's not hard to see why they come even to do the lowest paid work.
I of course meant
I'll be happy if the next manifesto says we shall remain in the single market and the customs union no matter what.
The single market is and always will be one Thatcher's finest legacies.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/785504830307508225
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
1) Sterling/Euro at parity and all-of-a-sudden those foreign holidays are rather painful
2) Oil above $100 a barrel, which will cause a revolt amongst hauliers and other heavy drivers
3) An ongoing shit-show with regard to brexit negotiations
4) Inflation ramping upwards
75% of the above will hit people in the pockets pretty damn hard, and apart from the oil (where I have no idea what will happen) they're reasonably likely. However, note that the exchange rate will feed through to fuel costs in short order.
Theresa really, really, really should call an election sooner rather than later.