If Sterling were appreciating in value, I wonder how many of the headless chickens would be shrieking about the harm being done to exporters.
Yes we get it but you know perfectly well that this scale of devaluation is not a sign of a national economy, strong and confident and ready to take on the world. It is a clear sign of weakness if businesses need a trashed currency to sell their goods abroad rather than operating efficiently in a competitive market.
Huge volatility, post-Brexit vote, was a given. The Brexiteers (and I have to admit there were some) who claimed it would all be plain sailing were fools or frauds.
Indeed and they are still saying it on this very thread. The pretence that a 30% devaluation is clever economics reflecting a strong and vibrant economy.. all in the name of 'taking control' and getting rid of foreigners.
Yes it is now clear that some Brexiteers will accept anything, absolutely anything, as long as we leave the EU. That is all they care about. It's an obsession.
If it is an obsession, at least it's a long-standing one. The way that some Remainers have suddenly discovered how much they care about currency fluctuations is tragic and amusing.
It's not amusing for pensioners living abroad on limited sterling based incomes - and while inflation at home is currently subdued that may well change and then the proverbial could hit the fan. Similarly if the BoE is forced to raise interest rates other than very gradually and awful ot of mortgage payers won't be laughing. Oh and 30% devaluations don't come under the category of currency fluctuations.
What 30% devaluation?
The average GBP/USD exchange rate from the start of January to June 23rd was around $1.45 The current GBP/USD exchange rate is $1.245
That is a 20.5 cent fall. But 20 cents is not 20%, it is a 14% fall. Less than half what you're claiming. A 30% fall would be GBP/USD parity.
Apologies - I was following SeanT's comment which referred to that figure. A 14% fall is still not just a currency fluctuation.
Moses we'll carry one whingeing and moaning (just like your lot had done for decades) until we can stop the damage being done to our country and ensure vile racists like Rudd are consigned to the back benches where at best she belongs.
Indeed you will with one significant difference
"we" as you put it are in the minority and you will do very well to now remember that. You had a lifetime to prove your case and failed.
You always were in the minority of course and for my entire lifetime the majority were never asked. When they were they spoke loudly and very clearly despite the threats. No amount of tears before bedtime will change the will of the people .
I recently read a book "The Real Cruel Sea" by Richard Woodman regarding the battle of the Atlantic up to 1943 and In his forward he said without assistance by the United States the outcome was by far certain in addition to and I quote.....
"that other inexplicable and inveterate British characteristic, a bloody minded objection to being shoved around"
In the minority perhaps from 0700 to 2200 on 23rd June. Democracy which all you Leavers bang on about does not mean making a decision and it be set in stone forever.
Recent polls show that Leave voters are still the majority.
Further analysis shows that Leave was probably in the lead throughout the referendum campaign
The settled will of the British people, albeit on a narrow majority, was to quit the EU.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
Being fair to Mrs M if she's taking her negotiating position as the worst possible, then all the bad news gets priced in up front. Any improvement on that and the pound and markets bounce back.
Maybe we should just have some fun next year and force a run on Deutsche Bank in the middle of all the european elections. And watch how the french and germans argue their banks need help unlike the greek and italian ones.
Mr. Brooke, goodness knows what some of the denizens of this site would do faced with a real crisis or a real threat.
I quite like your idea of the City withdrawing its cash from DB and a couple of other european banks. That would really put the old chat amongst the oiseaux.
I’m off to Thailand shortly to vistit family. We’ve certainly seen over 30% devaliuation since we first went.... 66TB =£1 10 or so years ago, 55 last year, 43.4 this. However being with that set of grandchildren is worth it!
When I first came to the Philippines 20 or so years ago I was getting 107 pesos for my pound, now its only just over 60. However since I am paid in pesos the 20% rise in the last few weeks has been nice, or would have been if I didn't also buy everything in pesos as well
We just ran a £12bn current account deficit in August. Something had to give anyway. Brexit or no.
As an exporter channeling my inner Kevin Keegan "I'm loving it just loving it". Bit of inflation and a rise in interest rates and I shall burst with joy.
what do u export out of interest? Do u have a website?
Reuters Venezuela oil workers forced to sell their boots in order to eat https://t.co/v6EfHgmpy7
Funny how we don't hear much about the socialist paradise of Venezuela these days.
If Corbyn gets in - that could be us.
Mark Senior - take a look at Venezuela - that's what a fecked up country looks like.
Yes indeed , the one country in the world with a worse currency than the UK . So that puts us just above them in world esteem .
The whole idea that the valuation of a currency has rather little relationship to current living standard seems to rather have escaped you doesn't it. The pound was much stronger against the dollar. It was 2.8 USD to the GBP in 1971, would you say living standards were better now, or then ?
How many people complaining about the fall in sterling thought Carney was right to cut interest rates?
AFAIK the BoE wants to steer between two unwelcome outcomes; recession and excessive inflation. I imagine Mark Carney (and his is just one vote amongst nine on the rate setting panel) saw recession as the more immediately pressing risk following the Brexit shock. Neither has yet transpired although both could do, at the same time.
Reuters Venezuela oil workers forced to sell their boots in order to eat https://t.co/v6EfHgmpy7
Funny how we don't hear much about the socialist paradise of Venezuela these days.
If Corbyn gets in - that could be us.
Mark Senior - take a look at Venezuela - that's what a fecked up country looks like.
Yes indeed , the one country in the world with a worse currency than the UK . So that puts us just above them in world esteem .
The whole idea that the valuation of a currency has rather little relationship to current living standard seems to rather have escaped you doesn't it. The pound was much stronger against the dollar. It was 2.8 USD to the GBP in 1971, would you say living standards were better now, or then ?
Reuters Venezuela oil workers forced to sell their boots in order to eat https://t.co/v6EfHgmpy7
Funny how we don't hear much about the socialist paradise of Venezuela these days.
If Corbyn gets in - that could be us.
Mark Senior - take a look at Venezuela - that's what a fecked up country looks like.
Yes indeed , the one country in the world with a worse currency than the UK . So that puts us just above them in world esteem .
Eeyore is a character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey.
I’m off to Thailand shortly to vistit family. We’ve certainly seen over 30% devaliuation since we first went.... 66TB =£1 10 or so years ago, 55 last year, 43.4 this. However being with that set of grandchildren is worth it!
When I first came to the Philippines 20 or so years ago I was getting 107 pesos for my pound, now its only just over 60. However since I am paid in pesos the 20% rise in the last few weeks has been nice, or would have been if I didn't also buy everything in pesos as well
I suspect that if this goes on we’ll see a lot more “staycations"
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
Moses we'll carry one whingeing and moaning (just like your lot had done for decades) until we can stop the damage being done to our country and ensure vile racists like Rudd are consigned to the back benches where at best she belongs.
In the minority perhaps from 0700 to 2200 on 23rd June. Democracy which all you Leavers bang on about does not mean making a decision and it be set in stone forever.
Recent polls show that Leave voters are still the majority.
Further analysis shows that Leave was probably in the lead throughout the referendum campaign
The settled will of the British people, albeit on a narrow majority, was to quit the EU.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
Being fair to Mrs M if she's taking her negotiating position as the worst possible, then all the bad news gets priced in up front. Any improvement on that and the pound and markets bounce back.
Maybe we should just have some fun next year and force a run on Deutsche Bank in the middle of all the european elections. And watch how the french and germans argue their banks need help unlike the greek and italian ones.
Mr. Brooke, goodness knows what some of the denizens of this site would do faced with a real crisis or a real threat.
I quite like your idea of the City withdrawing its cash from DB and a couple of other european banks. That would really put the old chat amongst the oiseaux.
You and other Leavers deluded yourselves that the UK would be in a strong position post Brexit and the EU and many other countries would trip over themselves to do a trade deal with the UK . The reality is that these countries see us now as weak and isolated and will take advantage of that and try and do trade deals with us that benefit themselves much more than he UK .
Not that the EU is an organisation founded upon sense.
Exactly. I don't think that the UK has any right to expect treatment on a par with that of full members of the club, but the risk is that they swing all the way to the other extreme and go out of their way to punish the UK for leaving. This would clearly be bad for us, but it would hardly help the EU either. Being revealed to be a body held together by coercion is not a good look. It would also confirm the suspicion in the minds of many voters in the UK that the EU is an essentially malign entity, and prompt an equal and opposite reaction against it. The first consequence would likely be a growth in bloody minded nationalism amongst a significant part of the population, probably followed by a substantial downgrading of security and defence co-operation under the cover of necessary austerity measures.
Regardless, few of the people who voted to Leave are going to take belligerency from the EU as anything other than confirmation that they did the right thing.
Moses we'll carry one whingeing and moaning (just like your lot had done for decades) until we can stop the damage being done to our country and ensure vile racists like Rudd are consigned to the back benches where at best she belongs.
In the minority perhaps from 0700 to 2200 on 23rd June. Democracy which all you Leavers bang on about does not mean making a decision and it be set in stone forever.
Recent polls show that Leave voters are still the majority.
Further analysis shows that Leave was probably in the lead throughout the referendum campaign
The settled will of the British people, albeit on a narrow majority, was to quit the EU.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
Being fair to Mrs M if she's taking her negotiating position as the worst possible, then all the bad news gets priced in up front. Any improvement on that and the pound and markets bounce back.
Maybe we should just have some fun next year and force a run on Deutsche Bank in the middle of all the european elections. And watch how the french and germans argue their banks need help unlike the greek and italian ones.
Mr. Brooke, goodness knows what some of the denizens of this site would do faced with a real crisis or a real threat.
I quite like your idea of the City withdrawing its cash from DB and a couple of other european banks. That would really put the old chat amongst the oiseaux.
You and other Leavers deluded yourselves that the UK would be in a strong position post Brexit and the EU and many other countries would trip over themselves to do a trade deal with the UK . The reality is that these countries see us now as weak and isolated and will take advantage of that and try and do trade deals with us that benefit themselves much more than he UK .
I didn't delude myself over anything. Please do not ascribe to me motives and feelings that I have never had.
Reuters Venezuela oil workers forced to sell their boots in order to eat https://t.co/v6EfHgmpy7
Funny how we don't hear much about the socialist paradise of Venezuela these days.
If Corbyn gets in - that could be us.
Mark Senior - take a look at Venezuela - that's what a fecked up country looks like.
Yes indeed , the one country in the world with a worse currency than the UK . So that puts us just above them in world esteem .
The whole idea that the valuation of a currency has rather little relationship to current living standard seems to rather have escaped you doesn't it. The pound was much stronger against the dollar. It was 2.8 USD to the GBP in 1971, would you say living standards were better now, or then ?
Living standards would be better now if we still got 2.8 USD to the GBP
If Sterling were appreciating in value, I wonder how many of the headless chickens would be shrieking about the harm being done to exporters.
Yes we get it but you know perfectly well that this scale of devaluation is not a sign of a national economy, strong and confident and ready to take on the world. It is a clear sign of weakness if businesses need a trashed currency to sell their goods abroad rather than operating efficiently in a competitive market.
Huge volatility, post-Brexit vote, was a given. The Brexiteers (and I have to admit there were some) who claimed it would all be plain sailing were fools or frauds.
Indeed and they are still saying it on this very thread. The pretence that a 30% devaluation is clever economics reflecting a strong and vibrant economy.. all in the name of 'taking control' and getting rid of foreigners.
Yes it is now clear that some Brexiteers will accept anything, absolutely anything, as long as we leave the EU. That is all they care about. It's an obsession.
If it is an obsession, at least it's a long-standing one. The way that some Remainers have suddenly discovered how much they care about currency fluctuations is tragic and amusing.
It's not amusing for pensioners living abroad on limited sterling based incomes - and while inflation at home is currently subdued that may well change and then the proverbial could hit the fan. Similarly if the BoE is forced to raise interest rates other than very gradually and awful ot of mortgage payers won't be laughing. Oh and 30% devaluations don't come under the category of currency fluctuations.
Obviously not, but there is always a risk if you have income in currency x to meet liabilities in currency y. These emigrants would have a justified complaint if we had joined and were now leaving the euro. As it is they explicitly took on currency risk.
Reuters Venezuela oil workers forced to sell their boots in order to eat https://t.co/v6EfHgmpy7
Funny how we don't hear much about the socialist paradise of Venezuela these days.
If Corbyn gets in - that could be us.
Mark Senior - take a look at Venezuela - that's what a fecked up country looks like.
Yes indeed , the one country in the world with a worse currency than the UK . So that puts us just above them in world esteem .
The whole idea that the valuation of a currency has rather little relationship to current living standard seems to rather have escaped you doesn't it. The pound was much stronger against the dollar. It was 2.8 USD to the GBP in 1971, would you say living standards were better now, or then ?
Living standards would be better now if we still got 2.8 USD to the GBP
We probably wouldn't be exporting anything though.
Kudos to Harmmond for scraping Osborne's shamelessly populist Lloyd's retail sale. The shares should be sold on the open market for the maximum price achievable over what we paid for them. We need the bailout cash back to reduce public debt. Selling a few lucky voters cut price shares to then pass on for a mindful gain was shameless. Hammond deserves credit for ditching it.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.
Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
In 2050?
Hubris old bean.
What do you think David Lloyd George's reaction would have been in 1918 that he would be the last Liberal Prime Minister?
Or the reaction of Campbell-Bannerman after winning in 1906 a majority of 120 odd that the Liberals would be screwed forever in a little over a decade.
When these kind of seismic changes come, they happen very rapidly. Cf Scottish Labour
So who, or what, will depose the current status quo? Brexit was a seismic event but overall I don't think the political landscape has changed that much. You and I are still in the same party despite voting differently, we are also both wary of the new leadership as well. I'm not going to leave for the Lib Dems and definitely not for Labour. My only choice is to tough it out and if I get the chance vote for a liberal type of leader, even if it means Osborne coming back.
I also don't see any new party coming along, I'll never support a party with the "safe space" chumps in it and I doubt you would either. So where does that leave us?
Think of a party that would carry on the Cameron/The coalition's education reforms, that was focused on making the economic cake bigger, not equal.
Socially liberal, not someone obsessed with 'safe spaces' or naming and shaming companies for the number of Jonny Foreigners they employ.
That party currently sits on the back benches of the governing one. There is literally zero appetite to split, so where does it leave us?
Just want to add, I agree with all of those policy goals.
I'm staying put, we're like Churchill on the backbenchers whilst the appeasers are in charge. Our time will come again.
Since when is sucking up to the EU remotely Churchillian? Churchill was prepared for Britain to stand alone rather than suck up to Hitler
That would be a different Churchill from the one that offered the French a sovereign union in 1940 then?
You and other Leavers deluded yourselves that the UK would be in a strong position post Brexit and the EU and many other countries would trip over themselves to do a trade deal with the UK . The reality is that these countries see us now as weak and isolated and will take advantage of that and try and do trade deals with us that benefit themselves much more than he UK .
The reality is that it's been less than 20 weeks since the referendum and yet certain people are running around crying like little girls about temporary fluctuations, its just like all the damn boo-hooing about what was happening to the FTSE until that started going up, when people decided that it was too multinational orientated so it must be the FTSE250 that was important, until that climbed as well.
The government is not going to tell us what its negotiation position is, neither is anyone in the EU, neither is anyone going to tell us the substance of the secret talks they have had, so please, just grow a pair and wait and see what happens in the medium term, no real negotiations will be happening until after A50 next year, at the moment all we have is posturing and grandstanding. Maybe you hate it, maybe you despise it with every fiber of your being, we understand that, but your side lost, so now we have to give the government a chance and see what it can do.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
So I WAS right about (3). I was beginning to think I wasn't :
Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
So I WAS right about (3). I was beginning to think I wasn't :
Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
But it intends to "be part of the EU family like Norway or Switzerland" which as we all know entails free movement of people. So what's the difference - does Erdogan get to behead people under this arrangement?
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
So I WAS right about (3). I was beginning to think I wasn't :
Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
Was Tony expressing remorse for his Leave vote?
Of course not! Everything bad is because of the Remainers, naturally
You and other Leavers deluded yourselves that the UK would be in a strong position post Brexit and the EU and many other countries would trip over themselves to do a trade deal with the UK . The reality is that these countries see us now as weak and isolated and will take advantage of that and try and do trade deals with us that benefit themselves much more than he UK .
The reality is that it's been less than 20 weeks since the referendum and yet certain people are running around crying like little girls about temporary fluctuations, its just like all the damn boo-hooing about what was happening to the FTSE until that started going up, when people decided that it was too multinational orientated so it must be the FTSE250 that was important, until that climbed as well.
The government is not going to tell us what its negotiation position is, neither is anyone in the EU, neither is anyone going to tell us the substance of the secret talks they have had, so please, just grow a pair and wait and see what happens in the medium term, no real negotiations will be happening until after A50 next year, at the moment all we have is posturing and grandstanding. Maybe you hate it, maybe you despise it with every fiber of your being, we understand that, but your side lost, so now we have to give the government a chance and see what it can do.
Do..So far it has been excellent at creative inertia.. as the pound falls thro . successive floors.. can it be reversed or do we await some hairshirt measures.???
So is Turkey not joining the EU the fault of Brexit and why do we care either way ?
If Mr Meeks is posting it you can bet he thinks its the fault of BrExit, I believe claims may be made for the sun coming up tomorrow on a similar basis
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
So I WAS right about (3). I was beginning to think I wasn't :
Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
Was Tony expressing remorse for his Leave vote?
No, not for a second. But the government handled the campaign badly by not being honest about certain aspects of it - thinking that would win the day for them. However, all it's done is sow a lot of false information which they will find it hard to counter now without extreme scepticism. This means that the simplest Brexit solution, the one that they would have favoured had they been forced, has become harder to achieve.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
#1 The Norway Model absolutely is a loss of Sovereignty compared to either Remaining or Hard Brexit. It's taxation without representation. #2 Point #1 is irrelevant though. Leave turned it's campaign into a nativist anti immigration one. That's what killed the Norway Model.
That would be a different Churchill from the one that offered the French a sovereign union in 1940 then?
I have just checked the major news sites and there is no report of Germany invading the low countries or France and no suggestion of France surrendering to Germany and it being in the UK interest to try and keep France in the war.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc 2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder. 3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
#1 The Norway Model absolutely is a loss of Sovereignty compared to either Remaining or Hard Brexit. It's taxation without representation. #2 Point #1 is irrelevant though. Leave turned it's campaign into a nativist anti immigration one. That's what killed the Norway Model.
You relate the entire issue to that of cost. Even the Norway solution (as an interim to full Brexit) removes huge swathes of EU legislative control back to that which included in the EEA annexes. It removes CAP/CFP, allows use of Art 112 for migration control, reverts to EFTA court from ECJ, and retains full membership of the single market at the same time. Yes, single market membership has a price, but we made the argument that for the short term it is worth paying.
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easierly abused by populists.
Reuters Venezuela oil workers forced to sell their boots in order to eat https://t.co/v6EfHgmpy7
Funny how we don't hear much about the socialist paradise of Venezuela these days.
If Corbyn gets in - that could be us.
Mark Senior - take a look at Venezuela - that's what a fecked up country looks like.
Yes indeed , the one country in the world with a worse currency than the UK . So that puts us just above them in world esteem .
The whole idea that the valuation of a currency has rather little relationship to current living standard seems to rather have escaped you doesn't it. The pound was much stronger against the dollar. It was 2.8 USD to the GBP in 1971, would you say living standards were better now, or then ?
Living standards would be better now if we still got 2.8 USD to the GBP
That seems very unlikely to me. It seems much more likely that our economy would have grown much more slowly than it did, from 1971 to date.
I was told it would join in August. What happened? Do you think people were not telling the whole truth? I can't believe that. What's going on?
Come on, no one said Turkey would join in August.
snip
They were in the process of joining, they are (apparently) now not. Again, it didn't actually say when.
That's a lot of words to say 'Leave was lying'
Leavers, wrong then, wrong now.
Turkey weren't in the process of joining the EU at the time? And the original tweet suggests they still want to join EFTA, so the premise of the leave poster is still correct.
If Sterling were appreciating in value, I wonder how many of the headless chickens would be shrieking about the harm being done to exporters.
Yes we get it but you know perfectly well that this scale of devaluation is not a sign of a national economy, strong and confident and ready to take on the world. It is a clear sign of weakness if businesses need a trashed currency to sell their goods abroad rather than operating efficiently in a competitive market.
Huge volatility, post-Brexit vote, was a given. The Brexiteers (and I have to admit there were some) who claimed it would all be plain sailing were fools or frauds.
Indeed and they are still saying it on this very thread. The pretence that a 30% devaluation is clever economics reflecting a strong and vibrant economy.. all in the name of 'taking control' and getting rid of foreigners.
Yes it is now clear that some Brexiteers will accept anything, absolutely anything, as long as we leave the EU. That is all they care about. It's an obsession.
If it is an obsession, at least it's a long-standing one. The way that some Remainers have suddenly discovered how much they care about currency fluctuations is tragic and amusing.
It's not amusing for pensioners living abroad on limited sterling based incomes - and while inflation at home is currently subdued that may well change and then the proverbial could hit the fan. Similarly if the BoE is forced to raise interest rates other than very gradually and awful ot of mortgage payers won't be laughing. Oh and 30% devaluations don't come under the category of currency fluctuations.
What 30% devaluation?
The average GBP/USD exchange rate from the start of January to June 23rd was around $1.45 The current GBP/USD exchange rate is $1.245
That is a 20.5 cent fall. But 20 cents is not 20%, it is a 14% fall. Less than half what you're claiming. A 30% fall would be GBP/USD parity.
Apologies - I was following SeanT's comment which referred to that figure. A 14% fall is still not just a currency fluctuation.
If we weren't being hypersensitive about politics 14% fluctuations happen very regularly without much doom or gloom being written. The truth is every tea leaf if getting over analysed at the moment to confirm pre existing prejudices.
A month ago, people on here were claiming the triumphant success of Brexit. Today, it's a crisis or disaster.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but that won't stop British politics yo-yo'ing all over the place for the months and years to come.
Well quite. We should probably bear in mind at this juncture the predictions of some of those experts whom MIchael Gove was pilloried for not taking seriously prior to the EU referendum.
A range of economic forecasters including the OECD, NIESR and the Treasury (summary of some of their findings here: https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-3870-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f ) all had a stab at working out what might happen in terms of lost growth by 2030 if we left the EU, relative to the situation expected if we were to stay in, and none of the forecasts portended catastrophe. The very bottom of the worst projections made in the event of hard Brexit by the most pessimistic forecasters was of a loss of 9.5% of GDP, equivalent to a loss of growth of about two-thirds of one percent per year between now and then. The more optimistic forecasts suggested losses so small that they would pass by unnoticed.
All of this chimes with my own instincts, which are that the medium-term economic impact of Brexit is likely to be somewhere between negligible and moderately bad. In the longer term, the economic performance of the country, or lack thereof, will be much more heavily dependent on how the Government approaches our domestic situation - the housing crisis, the skills gap, how businesses are regulated and taxed, and so on - than on relations with an EU that is sickly, struggling, and likely to remain so absent dramatic political change.
Reuters Venezuela oil workers forced to sell their boots in order to eat https://t.co/v6EfHgmpy7
Funny how we don't hear much about the socialist paradise of Venezuela these days.
If Corbyn gets in - that could be us.
Mark Senior - take a look at Venezuela - that's what a fecked up country looks like.
Yes indeed , the one country in the world with a worse currency than the UK . So that puts us just above them in world esteem .
The whole idea that the valuation of a currency has rather little relationship to current living standard seems to rather have escaped you doesn't it. The pound was much stronger against the dollar. It was 2.8 USD to the GBP in 1971, would you say living standards were better now, or then ?
Living standards would be better now if we still got 2.8 USD to the GBP
That seems very unlikely to me. It seems much more likely that our economy would have grown much more slowly than it did, from 1971 to date.
When was the oil price hike? That’s what caused western economies to stagger.
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easierly abused by populists.
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easierly abused by populists.
You can't really blame the Turks can you - without the strong hand of the Uk keeping free market ideas alive in the EU it will accelerate down the plughole of socialism.
I guess the EU without the Uk just isn't attractive to Turkeys interest.
I'm just getting pissed off with the constant moaning and the dickhead threats from Europe. After the Obama fiasco youd have thought they might have learnt threats are counter productive. Though obviously this is aimed more at at cowing their domestic audience into submission for the project.
My predictions back in June should we vote Leave:
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc
I am not sure I got (3) right
In some respects, the Remainers are responsible for the 'hard brexit' movement. They slagged off the Norway option as being a loss of sovereignty (which compared to EU membership, it clearly isn't).
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
#1 The Norway Model absolutely is a loss of Sovereignty compared to either Remaining or Hard Brexit. It's taxation without representation. #2 Point #1 is irrelevant though. Leave turned it's campaign into a nativist anti immigration one. That's what killed the Norway Model.
You relate the entire issue to that of cost. Even the Norway solution (as an interim to full Brexit) removes huge swathes of EU legislative control back to that which included in the EEA annexes. It removes CAP/CFP, allows use of Art 112 for migration control, reverts to EFTA court from ECJ, and retains full membership of the single market at the same time. Yes, single market membership has a price, but we made the argument that for the short term it is worth paying.
To clarify. The EEA means budget contributions and accepting a corpus of international law we'd have no part framing. We'd lose our representation on the Commission, in the Parliament and in the Council of Ministers. We also still lose European Citizenship. To this liberal it's clearly a bigger afront to national and personal sovereignty than either Remaining or Hard Brexit. Both of which are cogent in sovereignty terms. Whether that's worth ignoring to preserve the Four Freedoms is a seperate debate.
Now it seems Turkey aspires not to membership but to a situation just like membership but where nobody gets to ask it searching questions about what it does to political prisoners, gays and so on. In other words just what leave said the situation was, only worse.
Talks which had a 99.9% chance of going backwards.
"So Turkey, when do you want to implement all the reforms needed to meet the accession criteria? Never? Oh that's a shame. Perhaps you should think about withdrawing your application in a face saving way."
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easierly abused by populists.
The press has been shut down, taken over or imprisoned, and literally thousands of judges have been either removed from their posts or put into prison.
Two decades ago I might've agreed with you.
Edited extra bit: just seen the post immediately below this. Mr. Submarine, the impression I got was that that was what you said. Fair enough if not.
If Sterling were appreciating in value, I wonder how many of the headless chickens would be shrieking about the harm being done to exporters.
Yes we get it but you know perfectly well that this scale of devaluation is not a sign of a national economy, strong and confident and ready to take on the world. It is a clear sign of weakness if businesses need a trashed currency to sell their goods abroad rather than operating efficiently in a competitive market.
Huge volatility, post-Brexit vote, was a given. The Brexiteers (and I have to admit there were some) who claimed it would all be plain sailing were fools or frauds.
Indeed and they are still saying it on this very thread. The pretence that a 30% devaluation is clever economics reflecting a strong and vibrant economy.. all in the name of 'taking control' and getting rid of foreigners.
Yes it is now clear that some Brexiteers will accept anything, absolutely anything, as long as we leave the EU. That is all they care about. It's an obsession.
If it is an obsession, at least it's a long-standing one. The way that some Remainers have suddenly discovered how much they care about currency fluctuations is tragic and amusing.
What 30% devaluation?
The average GBP/USD exchange rate from the start of January to June 23rd was around $1.45 The current GBP/USD exchange rate is $1.245
That is a 20.5 cent fall. But 20 cents is not 20%, it is a 14% fall. Less than half what you're claiming. A 30% fall would be GBP/USD parity.
Apologies - I was following SeanT's comment which referred to that figure. A 14% fall is still not just a currency fluctuation.
If we weren't being hypersensitive about politics 14% fluctuations happen very regularly without much doom or gloom being written. The truth is every tea leaf if getting over analysed at the moment to confirm pre existing prejudices.
14% fluctuations do not happen all the time. A 15% fall is defined as a currency crash and we are now at a greater drop than happened when we left the ERM. 1981 is the most recent comparision
You can't really blame the Turks can you - without the strong hand of the Uk keeping free market ideas alive in the EU it will accelerate down the plughole of socialism.
I guess the EU without the Uk just isn't attractive to Turkeys interest.
Many a true word spoken in sarcasm. Clearly UK secession is a huge blow the EU and it'll be a less liberal institution for our departure.
NIESR's model puts Q3 growth at 0.5%, would be pretty amazing if that is the result. Not much of a slowdown at all. Our net trade can only go one way with such weak Sterling so this will provide an additional support over the next year or so. What we really need is some certainty over our future. If it is hard Brexit then we need to know so businesses can adjust to that reality. Having one minister say hard Brexit and another say customs union is a joke and makes our politicians look like fools.
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easily abused by populists.
I'm not sure that an Islamic liberal democracy is a possibility; realistically, the two cultural traditions are so contradictory that it's one or the other. Assimilating the Acquis would have meant secularising to an extent that meant that it was no longer meaningfully Islamic.
It's looking like being an expensive Christmas. The prices of electronic gadgets and toys must surely be pretty vulnerable to sterling weakness.
I worked in the States for many years. Cost of children's clothes,CD,s and all manner of things I carried back was the the same number in dollars there but in sterling here hence hugely more expensive here for the same article.
Had nothing to do with exchange rates just we were always charged more on a commercial basis for the same product on the shelves and we had no choice. I noticed it as I regularly commuted back and forth for close on 10 years.
I did specifically refer to electronic devices and toys. The margins on Android phones, for example, must be pretty tight given the intense competition in that area. It's hard to imagine manufacturers such as Samsung simply taking the loss.
I set up a local mobile quicker, easier and cheaper than ever I could do in the UK. Can't quote the figures now as it was a while ago but the difference for the phone and airtime costs were significant. Of course now you can do roaming etc with capped prices on data etc. I don't think 3G was even in service then though but I may be wrong? Don't recollect it?
I brought back a lot of children's toy packs as well. fisher price I remember as one because they were inordinately cheaper over in the states for the same thing here (because my girls were of that age at the time)
Mobile service is more expensive in the US than UK (handsets are cheaper on the whole, I'll grant you). We pay $70 a month each for our mobile service which I reckon from a quick look at UK mobilecos' sites would cost around £35-£40 a month in the UK. Even at pre-Brexit rates, that's around 15-30% more expensive in the UK. And don't get me started on how more expensive broadband is here.
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easily abused by populists.
I'm not sure that an Islamic liberal democracy is a possibility; realistically, the two cultural traditions are so contradictory that it's one or the other. Assimilating the Acquis would have meant secularising to an extent that meant that it was no longer meaningfully Islamic.
Not sure I agree with that.
What about a country populated by TSEs and his female equivalents?
Now it seems Turkey aspires not to membership but to a situation just like membership but where nobody gets to ask it searching questions about what it does to political prisoners, gays and so on. In other words just what leave said the situation was, only worse.
Our government strongly backed Turkey's accession to the EU, secure in the knowledge that France, Cyprus, Greece and others would veto it.
You can't really blame the Turks can you - without the strong hand of the Uk keeping free market ideas alive in the EU it will accelerate down the plughole of socialism.
I guess the EU without the Uk just isn't attractive to Turkeys interest.
Many a true word spoken in sarcasm. Clearly UK secession is a huge blow the EU and it'll be a less liberal institution for our departure.
Sarcasm ? I don't think so. Joining the EU became significantly less attractive since Brexit.
I don't blame the Turks for not wanting to bother.
You can't really blame the Turks can you - without the strong hand of the Uk keeping free market ideas alive in the EU it will accelerate down the plughole of socialism.
I guess the EU without the Uk just isn't attractive to Turkeys interest.
Erdogan's coup probably killed it.
The EU demanding the restoration of democracy in Turkey did not suit Erdogan's interests.
Talks which had a 99.9% chance of going backwards.
"So Turkey, when do you want to implement all the reforms needed to meet the accession criteria? Never? Oh that's a shame. Perhaps you should think about withdrawing your application in a face saving way."
Even if true, completely self-defeating. How could we honorably continue membership of an institution which cynically invited countries to engage in decades of negotiation which it had cynically decided would with 99.9% certainty never come to fruition?
You can't really blame the Turks can you - without the strong hand of the Uk keeping free market ideas alive in the EU it will accelerate down the plughole of socialism.
I guess the EU without the Uk just isn't attractive to Turkeys interest.
Many a true word spoken in sarcasm. Clearly UK secession is a huge blow the EU and it'll be a less liberal institution for our departure.
Sarcasm ? I don't think so. Joining the EU became significantly less attractive since Brexit.
I don't blame the Turks for not wanting to bother.
That would be a different Churchill from the one that offered the French a sovereign union in 1940 then?
I have just checked the major news sites and there is no report of Germany invading the low countries or France and no suggestion of France surrendering to Germany and it being in the UK interest to try and keep France in the war.
My point was that Churchill didn't want to stand alone if he could avoid it. He even offered to give NI to de Valera if Ireland would join the Allies.
Now it seems Turkey aspires not to membership but to a situation just like membership but where nobody gets to ask it searching questions about what it does to political prisoners, gays and so on. In other words just what leave said the situation was, only worse.
Our government strongly backed Turkey's accession to the EU, secure in the knowledge that France, Cyprus, Greece and others would veto it.
Oh really? And for how long was this our policy (i.e. under which PMs was it formulated and carried out?)
If true, a delightful illustration that honesty is the best policy.
Talks which had a 99.9% chance of going backwards.
"So Turkey, when do you want to implement all the reforms needed to meet the accession criteria? Never? Oh that's a shame. Perhaps you should think about withdrawing your application in a face saving way."
Even if true, completely self-defeating. How could we honorably continue membership of an institution which cynically invited countries to engage in decades of negotiation which it had cynically decided would with 99.9% certainty never come to fruition?
I'm sure that was not the intention when the process started, but having dragged on for decades, they needed a way to bring it to a formal close.
When Turkey first applied the Cold War was still going on and the rise in political islamism wasn't yet a meaningful force so the world was very different.
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easily abused by populists.
I'm not sure that an Islamic liberal democracy is a possibility; realistically, the two cultural traditions are so contradictory that it's one or the other. Assimilating the Acquis would have meant secularising to an extent that meant that it was no longer meaningfully Islamic.
It's a tragedy we couldn't pull off Turkish Accession. Assimilating the Acquis would have secured then anchored the world's first Islamic liberal democracy. A glory of the 21st century. But it didn't achieve escape velocity. As the bid has been falling back to earth for years best it's formally ditched. As we've seen it's theoretical existence is too easily abused by populists.
I'm not sure that an Islamic liberal democracy is a possibility; realistically, the two cultural traditions are so contradictory that it's one or the other. Assimilating the Acquis would have meant secularising to an extent that meant that it was no longer meaningfully Islamic.
I suspect I agree with you David. I'm just using differing and more elastic definitions of those terms. Though that said there's no theological reason an Islamic population can't have a liberal democracy. They just haven't got round to it yet for cultural reasons.
Now it seems Turkey aspires not to membership but to a situation just like membership but where nobody gets to ask it searching questions about what it does to political prisoners, gays and so on. In other words just what leave said the situation was, only worse.
Our government strongly backed Turkey's accession to the EU, secure in the knowledge that France, Cyprus, Greece and others would veto it.
Oh really? And for how long was this our policy (i.e. under which PMs was it formulated and carried out?)
If true, a delightful illustration that honesty is the best policy.
When I was in the Conservative Party, whenever Turkey's accession to the EU came up, we were always assured that other EU nations would block it.
Comments
I quite like your idea of the City withdrawing its cash from DB and a couple of other european banks. That would really put the old chat amongst the oiseaux.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/japan-pre-qualifying-2016.html
1. It would be a hard Brexit - no EEA etc
2. We would blame the EU for the consequences of our vote making it even harder.
3. Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
I am not sure I got (3) right
Regardless, few of the people who voted to Leave are going to take belligerency from the EU as anything other than confirmation that they did the right thing.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but that won't stop British politics yo-yo'ing all over the place for the months and years to come.
It's almost worth emigrating simply to avoid the noise and come back in 10-20years when it's settled down.
https://t.co/ORvNiGEni8
https://youtu.be/Wt0455eyLBo
When did they become a priority for the Uk govt ?
The problem is, now they can't row back from it without the public losing all confidence their own honesty, which was questionable anyway.
https://twitter.com/IanaDreyer/status/784362831277875200
The government is not going to tell us what its negotiation position is, neither is anyone in the EU, neither is anyone going to tell us the substance of the secret talks they have had, so please, just grow a pair and wait and see what happens in the medium term, no real negotiations will be happening until after A50 next year, at the moment all we have is posturing and grandstanding. Maybe you hate it, maybe you despise it with every fiber of your being, we understand that, but your side lost, so now we have to give the government a chance and see what it can do.
Those in favour of leaving would blame those promoting Remain for the fact they voted Leave, for there not being a plan etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
I imagine Edrogan decided he didn't want to be in the EU enough to tolerate the amount of meddling in his countries affairs it necessitated.
What a shambles.
'No, the German proposals allow for 5 years of residency to make benefits available'
So lets have the same residency rules applicable to all benefits including health care.
Only a few days ago he was there trying to help Turkey join the EU.
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/784321675869335552
Only joking!
Leavers, wrong then, wrong now.
A range of economic forecasters including the OECD, NIESR and the Treasury (summary of some of their findings here: https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-3870-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f ) all had a stab at working out what might happen in terms of lost growth by 2030 if we left the EU, relative to the situation expected if we were to stay in, and none of the forecasts portended catastrophe. The very bottom of the worst projections made in the event of hard Brexit by the most pessimistic forecasters was of a loss of 9.5% of GDP, equivalent to a loss of growth of about two-thirds of one percent per year between now and then. The more optimistic forecasts suggested losses so small that they would pass by unnoticed.
All of this chimes with my own instincts, which are that the medium-term economic impact of Brexit is likely to be somewhere between negligible and moderately bad. In the longer term, the economic performance of the country, or lack thereof, will be much more heavily dependent on how the Government approaches our domestic situation - the housing crisis, the skills gap, how businesses are regulated and taxed, and so on - than on relations with an EU that is sickly, struggling, and likely to remain so absent dramatic political change.
Take this example:
"David Cameron ‘lying’ about Turkey joining EU as talks will take place just days after referendum"
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1324218/david-cameron-lying-about-turkey-joining-eu-as-talks-will-take-place-just-days-after-referendum/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-begins-new-area-of-eu-membership-talks-1467294670
That's seven days after.
I guess the EU without the Uk just isn't attractive to Turkeys interest.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
Now it seems Turkey aspires not to membership but to a situation just like membership but where nobody gets to ask it searching questions about what it does to political prisoners, gays and so on. In other words just what leave said the situation was, only worse.
"So Turkey, when do you want to implement all the reforms needed to meet the accession criteria? Never? Oh that's a shame. Perhaps you should think about withdrawing your application in a face saving way."
The press has been shut down, taken over or imprisoned, and literally thousands of judges have been either removed from their posts or put into prison.
Two decades ago I might've agreed with you.
Edited extra bit: just seen the post immediately below this. Mr. Submarine, the impression I got was that that was what you said. Fair enough if not.
I think now that the move of the pound was more inside info about the terrible trade figures that where published today.
Exports flat, imports up 5.5% in a month.
The pound would have fallen sharply today even without the flash crash of last night.
What about a country populated by TSEs and his female equivalents?
I don't blame the Turks for not wanting to bother.
The EU demanding the restoration of democracy in Turkey did not suit Erdogan's interests.
scared the Turks off
If true, a delightful illustration that honesty is the best policy.
When Turkey first applied the Cold War was still going on and the rise in political islamism wasn't yet a meaningful force so the world was very different.
Trump is still refusing to do any debate preparations, last night's town hall was a fiasco and points to Trump being buried on Sunday.
The man is clearly an idiot or wants to lose which makes him an idiot anyway.
I agree that it completely cynical.