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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though Mrs. May’s BREXIT strategy isn’t helping co

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  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited October 2016
    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    All politicians make mistakes. It's how you deal with them that determines how successful you are.

    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    John said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    Indeed, the expectation management game for Mrs May are quite bad. Everyone expects her to beat Corbyn comfortably in a general election, if there's a plethora of polls that puts the Tories ahead of Labour but within in the margin of error then people will start talking.

    One of the things I heard most at conference was the 'absolute monarchy moderated by regicide' quote.
    That was a feature of last night's Casino-Oh Really beery summit. I thought I saw you lurking near-by.
  • Options
    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Indigo said:

    Socially liberal, not someone obsessed with 'safe spaces' or naming and shaming companies for the number of Jonny Foreigners they employ.

    And if told by an intransigent EU that the choices were either "Full FoM & Full Single Market" or "piss off", what would this party do, and what would it tell the voters ?
    I'd say well the people have voted against full freedom of movement, and we'd have to make the best of no full single market membership/access deal.

    It isn't like the voters weren't warned about this.
    I'm absolutely confident that it won't come to that. Even if we are outside the single market, that doesn't exclude us from Passporting, Mutual recognition agreements, even potentially being inside the customs union.

    It's not a binary choice, there are going to be a huge number of different potential outcomes, neither of which are simple 'soft and hard' brexit. While the political commentators in the UK might not want to acknowledge that , the markets aren't as stupid.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,076
    edited October 2016

    John said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    Indeed, the expectation management game for Mrs May are quite bad. Everyone expects her to beat Corbyn comfortably in a general election, if there's a plethora of polls that puts the Tories ahead of Labour but within in the margin of error then people will start talking.

    One of the things I heard most at conference was the 'absolute monarchy moderated by regicide' quote.
    Corbyn has a ceiling of about 30%, probably less, while some UKIP voters are moving back to the Tories. May can afford to lose a few who share your ideology to the LDs without too much damage
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    You are embarrassing yourself.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    I'm sure, but by the same token leaving the EU was also about getting out of the political project. We should be able to satisfy that in the short term at least and solve the underlying problem behind immigration rather than treat the symptoms.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,655

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    In shackles and orange jump suits no doubt?

    Or will we simply have time limited work permits like much of the rest of the world?

    And as for publishing foreign workers - it could be worse, we could publish their employer, job title, location and nationality, like that other fascist regime.....the USA....
    Orange scrubs, surely?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    In 2050?
    Hubris old bean.

    What do you think David Lloyd George's reaction would have been in 1918 that he would be the last Liberal Prime Minister?

    Or the reaction of Campbell-Bannerman after winning in 1906 a majority of 120 odd that the Liberals would be screwed forever in a little over a decade.

    When these kind of seismic changes come, they happen very rapidly. Cf Scottish Labour
    So who, or what, will depose the current status quo? Brexit was a seismic event but overall I don't think the political landscape has changed that much. You and I are still in the same party despite voting differently, we are also both wary of the new leadership as well. I'm not going to leave for the Lib Dems and definitely not for Labour. My only choice is to tough it out and if I get the chance vote for a liberal type of leader, even if it means Osborne coming back.

    I also don't see any new party coming along, I'll never support a party with the "safe space" chumps in it and I doubt you would either. So where does that leave us?
    Think of a party that would carry on the Cameron/The coalition's education reforms, that was focused on making the economic cake bigger, not equal.

    Socially liberal, not someone obsessed with 'safe spaces' or naming and shaming companies for the number of Jonny Foreigners they employ.
    That party currently sits on the back benches of the governing one. There is literally zero appetite to split, so where does it leave us?

    Just want to add, I agree with all of those policy goals.
    I'm staying put, we're like Churchill on the backbenchers whilst the appeasers are in charge. Our time will come again.
    As modest as Churchill, I see.
    But unlike Churchill he chooses Europe over the open seas.....
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited October 2016
    FPT

    Yellow submarine

    "Finally as for ' Remainers ' not shutting up you betcha. The is a democracy. Leave won one election decisively but narrowly."

    Leave won the election decisively ( but narrowly) I mean WTF?

    Oh FFS it's not both, it's one or the other..... As it happens the majority decisively and decidedly carried the day

    that's democracy. You had 47 years of unchallenged times to prove your case and you Failed!!
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

  • Options

    John said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    One of the things I heard most at conference was the 'absolute monarchy moderated by regicide' quote.
    You went?

    I thought you stayed away?
    I was there Monday and Tuesday, had planned to stay until Wednesday but was recalled to Manchester for work.

    This was the first conference I went to and didn't go into the conference hall.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,076

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
  • Options
    JohnO said:

    John said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    Indeed, the expectation management game for Mrs May are quite bad. Everyone expects her to beat Corbyn comfortably in a general election, if there's a plethora of polls that puts the Tories ahead of Labour but within in the margin of error then people will start talking.

    One of the things I heard most at conference was the 'absolute monarchy moderated by regicide' quote.
    That was a feature of last night's Casino-Oh Really beery summit. I thought I saw you lurking near-by.
    I spent most of yesterday in Manchester and Sheffield.

    I must ask Mike when he's planning the next PB meet, I think there's one due in the next few weeks.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Basingstoke Basing result Con hold

    Con 1051 LDem 323 Lab 184
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Chris_A said:

    Moses we'll carry one whingeing and moaning (just like your lot had done for decades) until we can stop the damage being done to our country and ensure vile racists like Rudd are consigned to the back benches where at best she belongs.

    Racist ? She spoke about recording the nationality of immigrants, surely even you get the difference between nationality and race.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    edited October 2016
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
    This mistake?

    At the Conservative party conference this week, Home Secretary Amber Rudd announced plans to make firms publish what proportion of their workforce is non-British in a bid to encourage them to hire more British nationals. Although derided by many media commentators, new YouGov research finds that the policy is very popular across most of society.

    Overall, 59% of people say they either strongly or somewhat support the proposals – more than double the 26% who somewhat or strongly oppose them.

    ......a majority (51%) of Labour voters supporting the proposals.

    The policy is also highly popular among UKIP and Conservative voters, with 86% and 73% respectively supporting it, whilst even amongst Lib Dem voters it is supported more than opposed by a decent margin (48% vs 37%). Only SNP voters aren’t in obvious support – and even they are split 46%/46% over the policy.


    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    Yet most voters backed it
    The voters also backed Gordon Brown's British Jobs for British Workers, then changed their mind.
    The changed their mind about Gordon Brown, there is no evidence to suggest the changed their mind about BJ4BW, the polling around May's recent speeches rather suggest the opposite.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    Do you think they're shorting the pound? :)
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    TGOHF said:

    I for one will gladly give up the running of our country to avoid a temporary dip in the Forex rates.

    Who is with me ?

    I do sometimes wonder how these people would cope in a real crisis.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Highland Culloden after Stage 6

    SNP 908
    LDem 703
    Con 515
    Ind MacPherson 414

    Heading for a SNP / LD close finish

    With Con that High I imagine a LD win.
  • Options
    Indigo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    Yet most voters backed it
    The voters also backed Gordon Brown's British Jobs for British Workers, then changed their mind.
    The changed their mind about Gordon Brown, there is no evidence to suggest the changed their mind about BJ4BW, the polling around May's recent speeches rather suggest the opposite.
    No, it was the actual polling. IIRC it had a plurality of support when Brown announced it but by 2009 I think a majority opposed it.

    Need to dig out the polling.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783

    John said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    One of the things I heard most at conference was the 'absolute monarchy moderated by regicide' quote.
    You went?

    I thought you stayed away?
    I was there Monday and Tuesday, had planned to stay until Wednesday but was recalled to Manchester for work.

    This was the first conference I went to and didn't go into the conference hall.
    Probably wise......the old dears can spot an Osbornite at 50 paces.....
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Highland Culloden after Stage 7

    SNP 970
    LDem 793
    Con 589

    LD win for sure
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,878

    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

    I find that hard to believe. I like Clegg, but his problem was not entirely what he said or proposed, it was that even if he had good ideas no one would listen to him. I cannot see enough people being horrified by Corbynism or (perceived) May's tack to the right for former LDs, moderate labourites and Cameroons to rally behind him.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

    I find that hard to believe. I like Clegg, but his problem was not entirely what he said or proposed, it was that even if he had good ideas no one would listen to him. I cannot see enough people being horrified by Corbynism or (perceived) May's tack to the right for former LDs, moderate labourites and Cameroons to rally behind him.
    Nick Clegg is presenting tonight's Have I Got News For You
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

    I find that hard to believe. I like Clegg, but his problem was not entirely what he said or proposed, it was that even if he had good ideas no one would listen to him. I cannot see enough people being horrified by Corbynism or (perceived) May's tack to the right for former LDs, moderate labourites and Cameroons to rally behind him.
    This Nick Clegg ?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/563490/Even-Nick-Clegg-disagrees-Deputy-PM-blasts-plans-EU-army-dangerous-fantasy
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Indigo said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    You are embarrassing yourself.
    It's what he wants it to be rather than what it is. Keep in mind that after all the toys have been ejected from the pram and the last proverbial dummy has been spat the only thing is to bawl and scream.....

    "I will cwy and cwy and cwy until I am sick. "

    Enough.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

    I find that hard to believe. I like Clegg, but his problem was not entirely what he said or proposed, it was that even if he had good ideas no one would listen to him. I cannot see enough people being horrified by Corbynism or (perceived) May's tack to the right for former LDs, moderate labourites and Cameroons to rally behind him.

    Not so sure about that. The study someone linked to yesterday from Manchester University (I think) about how the referendum has changed the way people see themselves was very interesting. Remainers especially, it seems, put that before any party affiliation. And right now there is no-one with any heft making their case. Clegg as LD leader would have that heft.

  • Options
    Oh Lord, what have the poor people of Sheffield Central done to deserve this?

    Sheffield Green Party has selected former Green Party leader Natalie Bennett as their candidate to challenge Paul Blomfield in Sheffield Central constituency should a snap election be held.

    http://sheffieldgreenparty.org.uk/2016/10/07/greens-select-natalie-bennett-as-sheffield-central-snap-election-candidate/
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
    This mistake?

    At the Conservative party conference this week, Home Secretary Amber Rudd announced plans to make firms publish what proportion of their workforce is non-British in a bid to encourage them to hire more British nationals. Although derided by many media commentators, new YouGov research finds that the policy is very popular across most of society.

    Overall, 59% of people say they either strongly or somewhat support the proposals – more than double the 26% who somewhat or strongly oppose them.

    ......a majority (51%) of Labour voters supporting the proposals.

    The policy is also highly popular among UKIP and Conservative voters, with 86% and 73% respectively supporting it, whilst even amongst Lib Dem voters it is supported more than opposed by a decent margin (48% vs 37%). Only SNP voters aren’t in obvious support – and even they are split 46%/46% over the policy.


    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/
    Yes that mistake. It's still wrong.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited October 2016
    Chris_A said:

    Moses we'll carry one whingeing and moaning (just like your lot had done for decades) until we can stop the damage being done to our country and ensure vile racists like Rudd are consigned to the back benches where at best she belongs.

    I'm not sure that it's the best policy but your spittle flecked language makes me want to support her.
  • Options
    Absolutely important polling by YouGov, an utter must read

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/judge-rinder-remains-nations-strictly-favourite-lo/
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,862
    edited October 2016
    i

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    Imagine PB in 1956:

    "We're still the third superpower"
    "The Americans need us as a bulwark against the Soviets!"
    "We've still got the A-bomb"
    "The invasion is very popular, it said so in the Express"
    "Hooray for Mr Eden and our boys!"
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

    I find that hard to believe. I like Clegg, but his problem was not entirely what he said or proposed, it was that even if he had good ideas no one would listen to him. I cannot see enough people being horrified by Corbynism or (perceived) May's tack to the right for former LDs, moderate labourites and Cameroons to rally behind him.

    Not so sure about that. The study someone linked to yesterday from Manchester University (I think) about how the referendum has changed the way people see themselves was very interesting. Remainers especially, it seems, put that before any party affiliation. And right now there is no-one with any heft making their case. Clegg as LD leader would have that heft.

    Yes, opportunity is hammering like Thor on coke at the door of Lib Dem HQ, but Tim is asleep on the sofa.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,524
    edited October 2016

    i

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    Imagine PB in 1956:

    "We're still the third superpower"
    "The Americans need us as a bulwark against the Soviets!"
    "We've still got the A-bomb"
    "The invasion is very popular, it said so in the Express"
    "Hooray for Mr Eden and our boys!"
    Well I would have been criticising the Suez affair as it started.

    WTAF - We're going to war alongside France? That means certain defeat. Les grenouilles have an appalling military record.

    Eden is worse than Blair.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

    I find that hard to believe. I like Clegg, but his problem was not entirely what he said or proposed, it was that even if he had good ideas no one would listen to him. I cannot see enough people being horrified by Corbynism or (perceived) May's tack to the right for former LDs, moderate labourites and Cameroons to rally behind him.

    Not so sure about that. The study someone linked to yesterday from Manchester University (I think) about how the referendum has changed the way people see themselves was very interesting. Remainers especially, it seems, put that before any party affiliation. And right now there is no-one with any heft making their case. Clegg as LD leader would have that heft.

    Yes, opportunity is hammering like Thor on coke at the door of Lib Dem HQ, but Tim is asleep on the sofa.
    He's a local politician for local people. That may take you to parliament but, to borrow from George Bush, that doesn't mean you have the vision thing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,076
    edited October 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    Regardless of whether France occasionally overtakes us the trend is the same over there and will be confirmed when Le Pen tops the poll next May, voters across the west are rejecting economic liberalism and globalisation for nationalism and immigration control.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
    This mistake?

    At the Conservative party conference this week, Home Secretary Amber Rudd announced plans to make firms publish what proportion of their workforce is non-British in a bid to encourage them to hire more British nationals. Although derided by many media commentators, new YouGov research finds that the policy is very popular across most of society.

    Overall, 59% of people say they either strongly or somewhat support the proposals – more than double the 26% who somewhat or strongly oppose them.

    ......a majority (51%) of Labour voters supporting the proposals.

    The policy is also highly popular among UKIP and Conservative voters, with 86% and 73% respectively supporting it, whilst even amongst Lib Dem voters it is supported more than opposed by a decent margin (48% vs 37%). Only SNP voters aren’t in obvious support – and even they are split 46%/46% over the policy.


    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/
    Yes that mistake. It's still wrong.
    Must be nice to dismiss the views of almost 60% of the population so easily and with such certainty.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    TonyE said:

    Apparently, despite the massive movement in price there wasn't a great deal of liquidity involved in the Asian market overnight. There may be no political element to this at all.

    There's a very good chance that this was a trader (or a small number of traders) choosing to push the market down for advantage or to mitigate another position.

    However, there has been no recovery to the status quo ante and all the signs are that £ will continue to steadily decline.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Indigo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
    This mistake?

    At the Conservative party conference this week, Home Secretary Amber Rudd announced plans to make firms publish what proportion of their workforce is non-British in a bid to encourage them to hire more British nationals. Although derided by many media commentators, new YouGov research finds that the policy is very popular across most of society.

    Overall, 59% of people say they either strongly or somewhat support the proposals – more than double the 26% who somewhat or strongly oppose them.

    ......a majority (51%) of Labour voters supporting the proposals.

    The policy is also highly popular among UKIP and Conservative voters, with 86% and 73% respectively supporting it, whilst even amongst Lib Dem voters it is supported more than opposed by a decent margin (48% vs 37%). Only SNP voters aren’t in obvious support – and even they are split 46%/46% over the policy.


    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/
    Yes that mistake. It's still wrong.
    Must be nice to dismiss the views of almost 60% of the population so easily and with such certainty.
    Nope. Nothing nice about this at all. It's fucked up.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    619 said:
    Anecdotally (per angry Trump supporters in my Twitter stream) they seem to be directing would-be volunteers to their local RNC office, who then send them out doorstepping people on behalf of their state senate candidate.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:



    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    In 2050?
    Hubris old bean.

    What do you think David Lloyd George's reaction would have been in 1918 that he would be the last Liberal Prime Minister?

    Or the reaction of Campbell-Bannerman after winning in 1906 a majority of 120 odd that the Liberals would be screwed forever in a little over a decade.

    When these kind of seismic changes come, they happen very rapidly. Cf Scottish Labour
    So who, or what, will depose the current status quo? Brexit was a seismic event but overall I don't think the political landscape has changed that much. You and I are still in the same party despite voting differently, we are also both wary of the new leadership as well. I'm not going to leave for the Lib Dems and definitely not for Labour. My only choice is to tough it out and if I get the chance vote for a liberal type of leader, even if it means Osborne coming back.

    I also don't see any new party coming along, I'll never support a party with the "safe space" chumps in it and I doubt you would either. So where does that leave us?
    Think of a party that would carry on the Cameron/The coalition's education reforms, that was focused on making the economic cake bigger, not equal.

    Socially liberal, not someone obsessed with 'safe spaces' or naming and shaming companies for the number of Jonny Foreigners they employ.
    That party currently sits on the back benches of the governing one. There is literally zero appetite to split, so where does it leave us?

    Just want to add, I agree with all of those policy goals.
    I'm staying put, we're like Churchill on the backbenchers whilst the appeasers are in charge. Our time will come again.
    TMay as Chamberlain and Davis as Halifax?
    Yah.

    I'm writing a peace on Cameron's legacy, I have reluctantly concluded he's the modern day Stanley Baldwin.

    Like Baldwin, he put party before country to win a general election, and his legacy is truly damaging for the country.
    I'd come to that conclusion some time ago. Corbyn is Lansbury, Clegg is Simon, Ashdown is Lloyd George, Osborne is Chamberlain (pre-1937). Will Jarvis be Attlee and McClusky Bevin? The chance is perhaps there.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Chris_A said:

    Moses we'll carry one whingeing and moaning (just like your lot had done for decades) until we can stop the damage being done to our country and ensure vile racists like Rudd are consigned to the back benches where at best she belongs.

    Indeed you will with one significant difference

    "we" as you put it are in the minority and you will do very well to now remember that. You had a lifetime to prove your case and failed.

    You always were in the minority of course and for my entire lifetime the majority were never asked. When they were they spoke loudly and very clearly despite the threats. No amount of tears before bedtime will change the will of the people .

    I recently read a book "The Real Cruel Sea" by Richard Woodman regarding the battle of the Atlantic up to 1943 and In his forward he said without assistance by the United States the outcome was by far certain in addition to and I quote.....

    "that other inexplicable and inveterate British characteristic, a bloody minded objection to being shoved around"
  • Options
    hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    edited October 2016
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    Do you think they're shorting the pound? :)
    Sitting here in my SME manufacturing company I am a lot more worried than TM appears to be and I can't understand why. I spent the morning negotiating to try and restrict the price rise for a key supply from the USA to 10%. 0% inflation is a joke.

    Spent this week in Ireland where the investment in new pharma plants is larger than the whole of the UK. All it takes is for business to sit on their hands and the country is in deep trouble.

    Short term the economy is living off the previous fumes but like road runner we have run off the cliff. The drop when it comes and it now seems inevitable will be sharp and uncontrolled.

    I voted remain but I am a soft remainer who sees many of the Brexit benefits. However the existing plan is not working




  • Options
    One solution could be to keep FoM within the EU, but stop all net non-EU migration instead.

    It reduces immigration by 50% while keeping the single market not to mention EU immigrants are net-contributors anyway. Seems like a perfect stop-gap solution.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    Alistair said:

    Highland Culloden after Stage 7

    SNP 970
    LDem 793
    Con 589

    LD win for sure
    Jacobite forces defeated by loyalist troops.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culloden
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Nope. Nothing nice about this at all. It's fucked up. ''

    Like it or not, the EU people living and working in Britain are bargaining chips at the moment. It ain;t pretty. But that's the way of it.

    When the bargaining is done, the position will change, I reckon.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Indigo said:

    Chris_A said:

    Moses we'll carry one whingeing and moaning (just like your lot had done for decades) until we can stop the damage being done to our country and ensure vile racists like Rudd are consigned to the back benches where at best she belongs.

    Racist ? She spoke about recording the nationality of immigrants, surely even you get the difference between nationality and race.
    Just arrived in Greece. Question I got was nationality? British I said..... Written down on official form.

    That's just at the hotel ......
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    I for one will gladly give up the running of our country to avoid a temporary dip in the Forex rates.

    Who is with me ?

    I do sometimes wonder how these people would cope in a real crisis.
    The amusing thing about the remoaners is that they are behaving as if their party has lost a GE but by winning a few bye elections and council seats they will be in a good place to take back power at a GE in a few years.

    The penny hasn't dropped that we are leaving - forever.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sleazy broken Sterling on the slide.

    Just like the Tories under Mrs May?

    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    The question is who? If the orange bookers were running the Lib Dems then I'd definitely feel they could make headway, if the moderates were running Labour then they might. Right now it feels like the opposition is the economically liberal wing of the Tory party. Many of whom are fretting over the idea of big government.

    The LibDems clearly have the wrong leader. If Clegg had hung on this may well have been made for him.

    I find that hard to believe. I like Clegg, but his problem was not entirely what he said or proposed, it was that even if he had good ideas no one would listen to him. I cannot see enough people being horrified by Corbynism or (perceived) May's tack to the right for former LDs, moderate labourites and Cameroons to rally behind him.

    Not so sure about that. The study someone linked to yesterday from Manchester University (I think) about how the referendum has changed the way people see themselves was very interesting. Remainers especially, it seems, put that before any party affiliation. And right now there is no-one with any heft making their case. Clegg as LD leader would have that heft.

    Yes, opportunity is hammering like Thor on coke at the door of Lib Dem HQ, but Tim is asleep on the sofa.

    Wrong name, wrong man. As you say, it is a golden opportunity.

  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784

    619 said:
    Anecdotally (per angry Trump supporters in my Twitter stream) they seem to be directing would-be volunteers to their local RNC office, who then send them out doorstepping people on behalf of their state senate candidate.
    The internal polling must be terrible then, as they ( if true) are abandoning Trump to keep the senate.

    Trump probably should have spent some of his money getting a better ground operation together
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,862

    Alistair said:

    Highland Culloden after Stage 7

    SNP 970
    LDem 793
    Con 589

    LD win for sure
    Jacobite forces defeated by loyalist troops.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culloden
    Update?
    Come on LDs in the Highlands!

    Like those lost Japs fighting the last war, this is the final LD redoubt, the misty bogs thick with talk of PR (in Gaelic).
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paul Waugh
    WATCH: Ed Miliband says firms with lots of foreign workers should report to job centres
    - 4 years BEFORE Rudd outcry
    https://t.co/w3pECBinae
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Recount at Highland Culloden
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm confused. Most people want Rinder to win but think Danny Mac will win.

    The people get to decide! 11/1 seems jolly good odds on Rinder in those circumstance.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    Moses_ said:

    I recently read a book "The Real Cruel Sea" by Richard Woodman regarding the battle of the Atlantic up to 1943 and In his forward he said without assistance by the United States the outcome was by far certain in addition to and I quote.....

    Can I recommend this when overcome with whinging, crying and people that don't know the difference between race and nationality.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    I for one will gladly give up the running of our country to avoid a temporary dip in the Forex rates.

    Who is with me ?

    I do sometimes wonder how these people would cope in a real crisis.
    People who have nothing to worry about invent problems for themselves.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jonathan said:

    Indigo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
    This mistake?

    At the Conservative party conference this week, Home Secretary Amber Rudd announced plans to make firms publish what proportion of their workforce is non-British in a bid to encourage them to hire more British nationals. Although derided by many media commentators, new YouGov research finds that the policy is very popular across most of society.

    Overall, 59% of people say they either strongly or somewhat support the proposals – more than double the 26% who somewhat or strongly oppose them.

    ......a majority (51%) of Labour voters supporting the proposals.

    The policy is also highly popular among UKIP and Conservative voters, with 86% and 73% respectively supporting it, whilst even amongst Lib Dem voters it is supported more than opposed by a decent margin (48% vs 37%). Only SNP voters aren’t in obvious support – and even they are split 46%/46% over the policy.


    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/
    Yes that mistake. It's still wrong.
    Must be nice to dismiss the views of almost 60% of the population so easily and with such certainty.
    Nope. Nothing nice about this at all. It's fucked up.
    In your minority opinion. Jeez
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Owen Jones tweets: There's plenty of useless, bungling and/or mediocre white male politicians who don't get the bile Diane Abbott does. Why is this exactly?

    So, just to clarify, he thinks the Shadow Home Secretary is 'useless, bungling and/or mediocre'?

    :lol:
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    I for one will gladly give up the running of our country to avoid a temporary dip in the Forex rates.

    Who is with me ?

    I do sometimes wonder how these people would cope in a real crisis.
    People who have nothing to worry about invent problems for themselves.
    One of the great things about living in the third world. The only exposure to #FirstWorldProblems I get is on PB.com ;)
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    If Sterling were appreciating in value, I wonder how many of the headless chickens would be shrieking about the harm being done to exporters.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    It's a good headline but, FWIW, the actual GDP rankings aren't generally calculated by the market forex rates. The headline is, essentially, a sort of joke - or at least, a back-of-the-envelope irony. Anyone treating it as "the UK is now officially demoted to 5th largest economy" is being economically illiterate.

    I seem to recall the BBC did a "Fact Check" article to similar effect when the pound fell post-referendum and there were other "Britain falls to 5th" stories back then.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:



    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    In 2050?
    Hr
    ?
    .
    That party currently sits on the back benches of the governing one. There is literally zero appetite to split, so where does it leave us?

    Just want to add, I agree with all of those policy goals.
    I'm staying put, we're like Churchill on the backbenchers whilst the appeasers are in charge. Our time will come again.
    TMay as Chamberlain and Davis as Halifax?
    Yah.

    I'm writing a peace on Cameron's legacy, I have reluctantly concluded he's the modern day Stanley Baldwin.

    Like Baldwin, he put party before country to win a general election, and his legacy is truly damaging for the country.
    I'd come to that conclusion some time ago. Corbyn is Lansbury, Clegg is Simon, Ashdown is Lloyd George, Osborne is Chamberlain (pre-1937). Will Jarvis be Attlee and McClusky Bevin? The chance is perhaps there.
    I have Osborne down as the modern day Churchill, but the rest of the analogies work.

    Major Dan Jarvis could well be the modern day Major Clement Attlee
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Recount at Highland Culloden

    Recount? Did Cons really break that heavily for SNP? Or did Cons not put down a second preference
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    I'm confused. Most people want Rinder to win but think Danny Mac will win.

    The people get to decide! 11/1 seems jolly good odds on Rinder in those circumstance.
    I like Robert Rinder, however I would struggle to vote for him whilst he perpetuates the myth that English judges use gavels
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Indigo said:

    Moses_ said:

    I recently read a book "The Real Cruel Sea" by Richard Woodman regarding the battle of the Atlantic up to 1943 and In his forward he said without assistance by the United States the outcome was by far certain in addition to and I quote.....

    Can I recommend this when overcome with whinging, crying and people that don't know the difference between race and nationality.
    :lol:
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    It's a good headline but, FWIW, the actual GDP rankings aren't generally calculated by the market forex rates. The headline is, essentially, a sort of joke - or at least, a back-of-the-envelope irony. Anyone treating it as "the UK is now officially demoted to 5th largest economy" is being economically illiterate.

    I seem to recall the BBC did a "Fact Check" article to similar effect when the pound fell post-referendum and there were other "Britain falls to 5th" stories back then.
    When the pound was soaring against the dollar in 1980 or 2007, it didn't actually mean that our economy was getting stronger, or that we were getting richer.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:



    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    In 2050?
    Hr
    ?
    .
    That party currently sits on the back benches of the governing one. There is literally zero appetite to split, so where does it leave us?

    Just want to add, I agree with all of those policy goals.
    I'm staying put, we're like Churchill on the backbenchers whilst the appeasers are in charge. Our time will come again.
    TMay as Chamberlain and Davis as Halifax?
    Yah.

    I'm writing a peace on Cameron's legacy, I have reluctantly concluded he's the modern day Stanley Baldwin.

    Like Baldwin, he put party before country to win a general election, and his legacy is truly damaging for the country.
    I'd come to that conclusion some time ago. Corbyn is Lansbury, Clegg is Simon, Ashdown is Lloyd George, Osborne is Chamberlain (pre-1937). Will Jarvis be Attlee and McClusky Bevin? The chance is perhaps there.
    I have Osborne down as the modern day Churchill, but the rest of the analogies work.

    Major Dan Jarvis could well be the modern day Major Clement Attlee
    Who's Mosley?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Alistair said:

    Highland Culloden after Stage 7

    SNP 970
    LDem 793
    Con 589

    LD win for sure
    Jacobite forces defeated by loyalist troops.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culloden
    Update?
    Come on LDs in the Highlands!

    Like those lost Japs fighting the last war, this is the final LD redoubt, the misty bogs thick with talk of PR (in Gaelic).
    They don't like dodgy bar charts up em..........
  • Options
    pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-restrict-unemployment-benefits-for-eu-migrants-andrea-nahles/

    Can someone explain to me how this is possible? Genuinely?
    Why is Germany allowed to implement a policy that means EU migrants need to have been in the Country FIVE years before they can claim benefits, when Cameron was forbidden from allowing the UK to restrict benefits for FOUR years?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Recount at Highland Culloden

    270 years late .... :cry:

    But that's STV for you .... :smiley:
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,756



    It's a good headline but, FWIW, the actual GDP rankings aren't generally calculated by the market forex rates. The headline is, essentially, a sort of joke - or at least, a back-of-the-envelope irony. Anyone treating it as "the UK is now officially demoted to 5th largest economy" is being economically illiterate.

    I seem to recall the BBC did a "Fact Check" article to similar effect when the pound fell post-referendum and there were other "Britain falls to 5th" stories back then.

    The "Britain has the fifth largest" GDP is indeed calculated by the market forex rates. On a PPP basis, the UK is ninth, essentially tying with France. India, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia are all above us on that measurement

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

  • Options
    It's looking like being an expensive Christmas. The prices of electronic gadgets and toys must surely be pretty vulnerable to sterling weakness.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Lib Dems take Culloden & Ardersier on Highland from Labour. SNP very close second.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    We've gone Communist?!
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    Regardless of whether France occasionally overtakes us the trend is the same over there and will be confirmed when Le Pen tops the poll next May, voters across the west are rejecting economic liberalism and globalisation for nationalism and immigration control.
    I'd be very surprised in Le Pen wins - the second ballot system they have makes it almost impossible.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:



    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    In 2050?
    Hr
    ?
    .
    That party currently sits on the back benches of the governing one. There is literally zero appetite to split, so where does it leave us?

    Just want to add, I agree with all of those policy goals.
    I'm staying put, we're like Churchill on the backbenchers whilst the appeasers are in charge. Our time will come again.
    TMay as Chamberlain and Davis as Halifax?
    Yah.

    I'm writing a peace on Cameron's legacy, I have reluctantly concluded he's the modern day Stanley Baldwin.

    Like Baldwin, he put party before country to win a general election, and his legacy is truly damaging for the country.
    I'd come to that conclusion some time ago. Corbyn is Lansbury, Clegg is Simon, Ashdown is Lloyd George, Osborne is Chamberlain (pre-1937). Will Jarvis be Attlee and McClusky Bevin? The chance is perhaps there.
    I have Osborne down as the modern day Churchill, but the rest of the analogies work.

    Major Dan Jarvis could well be the modern day Major Clement Attlee
    Boris is Churchill (in his dreams).
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latino Decisions Vote Predict Baysean Model - Tracking :

    Clinton 82 .. Trump 15

    Note - Romney polled 27%

    http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/10/06/ld-vote-predict-2016-latino-voters-poised-to-cast-most-lopsided-presidential-vote-on-record/
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TGOHF said:

    I for one will gladly give up the running of our country to avoid a temporary dip in the Forex rates.

    Who is with me ?

    Mark Senior for one.

    Some pathetic headless chickens around right now.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016

    Lib Dems take Culloden & Ardersier on Highland from Labour. SNP very close second.

    Bloody latter day Hanovarian Whigs snatch victory again .... :scream:
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    Regardless of whether France occasionally overtakes us the trend is the same over there and will be confirmed when Le Pen tops the poll next May, voters across the west are rejecting economic liberalism and globalisation for nationalism and immigration control.
    Le Pen won't win
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Culloden Highlands is a LDem gain by 25 votes
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    We've gone Communist?!
    Well, winding back the power of the state doesn't seem to be Theresa May's top priority.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    If Sterling were appreciating in value, I wonder how many of the headless chickens would be shrieking about the harm being done to exporters.

    Yes we get it but you know perfectly well that this scale of devaluation is not a sign of a national economy, strong and confident and ready to take on the world. It is a clear sign of weakness if businesses need a trashed currency to sell their goods abroad rather than operating efficiently in a competitive market.
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    Culloden by election, final count between SNP and Lib Dems, just over 100 in it. Conservative vote of over 500 to be allocated. Where will this fall?
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    Just heard sorry Lib Dems apparently.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of the electorate could not care less about the markets, they voted to control immigration which May will do. In any case the low pound helps exports even if it makes imports and foreign travel more expensive. The fall in the pound today was due to Hollande's hard BREXIT statement and automated trading in Asia

    Brexit has turned the UK into a 2nd world nation with a 3rd world currency .
    A 2nd world nation which is still the fifth largest economy with still well above average GDP per capita and sterling is still an IMF reserve currency
    We were the fifth largest economy, then Mrs May spoke.

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/783686693706665984
    Regardless of whether France occasionally overtakes us the trend is the same over there and will be confirmed when Le Pen tops the poll next May, voters across the west are rejecting economic liberalism and globalisation for nationalism and immigration control.
    Le Pen won't win
    She very probably will 'win' the first round. It's unlikely but not inconceivable that she will win the second. Her ratings have been good against Hollande, though it'd take a badly split centre-right to allow him through, and there's always the risk of 'events'.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
    This mistake?

    At the Conservative party conference this week, Home Secretary Amber Rudd announced plans to make firms publish what proportion of their workforce is non-British in a bid to encourage them to hire more British nationals. Although derided by many media commentators, new YouGov research finds that the policy is very popular across most of society.

    Overall, 59% of people say they either strongly or somewhat support the proposals – more than double the 26% who somewhat or strongly oppose them.

    ......a majority (51%) of Labour voters supporting the proposals.

    The policy is also highly popular among UKIP and Conservative voters, with 86% and 73% respectively supporting it, whilst even amongst Lib Dem voters it is supported more than opposed by a decent margin (48% vs 37%). Only SNP voters aren’t in obvious support – and even they are split 46%/46% over the policy.


    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/
    Yes that mistake. It's still wrong.
    Carlotta Vance just supports the Tory administration of the day, whatever they say or do. Witness her damascene conversion to Brexit and Ozzy-hatred despite being a Ozzy-loving europhile free marketeer before the summer.

    She works for CCHQ – that much seems blindingly obvious.

    Meanwhile Tories with their own minds – such as TSE – are endlessly trolled for being Tinos etc because they stick to their guns despite the government's capitulation to the statist, eurosceptic, anti free-market Mayists.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    pinkrose said:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-restrict-unemployment-benefits-for-eu-migrants-andrea-nahles/

    Can someone explain to me how this is possible? Genuinely?
    Why is Germany allowed to implement a policy that means EU migrants need to have been in the Country FIVE years before they can claim benefits, when Cameron was forbidden from allowing the UK to restrict benefits for FOUR years?

    No doubt because the policy will apply to their own citizens as well. The UK could easily have done this and is one of the few EU countries which gives so many benefits that are not based on contributions
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    TGOHF said:

    I for one will gladly give up the running of our country to avoid a temporary dip in the Forex rates.

    Who is with me ?

    I do sometimes wonder how these people would cope in a real crisis.
    People who have nothing to worry about invent problems for themselves.
    One of the great things about living in the third world. The only exposure to #FirstWorldProblems I get is on PB.com ;)
    For anyone interested, Mr HD has married again and two kiddies on the way - IIRC she's from Thailand.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Moses_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Indigo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Tranquility, mon brave, senex Johannus ex Hershamo, exhorts moderation in temper and tone. These are not (yet at least) the worst of IDS times. Internal exile is unwarranted.

    The tone of Mrs May's speech has worried a lot of people. She needs to row back on some of it and put Rudd on a much tighter leash. The foreign workers register was a huge and unnecessary misstep as was the idea of deporting foreign doctors in 2025.
    I agree on both counts....but then I voted Remain. Hard exit here we come: it's immigration, stupid (not directed at you).
    May has undoubtably made a serious mistake this past week. I wonder what she will do.
    This mistake?

    At the Conservative party conference this week, Home Secretary Amber Rudd announced plans to make firms publish what proportion of their workforce is non-British in a bid to encourage them to hire more British nationals. Although derided by many media commentators, new YouGov research finds that the policy is very popular across most of society.

    Overall, 59% of people say they either strongly or somewhat support the proposals – more than double the 26% who somewhat or strongly oppose them.

    ......a majority (51%) of Labour voters supporting the proposals.

    The policy is also highly popular among UKIP and Conservative voters, with 86% and 73% respectively supporting it, whilst even amongst Lib Dem voters it is supported more than opposed by a decent margin (48% vs 37%). Only SNP voters aren’t in obvious support – and even they are split 46%/46% over the policy.


    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/public-backs-plans-make-companies-say-how-many-for/
    Yes that mistake. It's still wrong.
    Must be nice to dismiss the views of almost 60% of the population so easily and with such certainty.
    Nope. Nothing nice about this at all. It's fucked up.
    In your minority opinion. Jeez

    Yes it's called tyranny of the majority.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:



    This is part of the problem. The Tories cannot lose, so there is no fear factor.

    Of course they can lose. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, if the Tories screw up, someone, eventually, will prosper from the Tories screwing up.
    In 2050?
    Hr
    ?
    .
    That party currently sits on the back benches of the governing one. There is literally zero appetite to split, so where does it leave us?

    Just want to add, I agree with all of those policy goals.
    I'm staying put, we're like Churchill on the backbenchers whilst the appeasers are in charge. Our time will come again.
    TMay as Chamberlain and Davis as Halifax?
    Yah.

    I'm writing a peace on Cameron's legacy, I have reluctantly concluded he's the modern day Stanley Baldwin.

    Like Baldwin, he put party before country to win a general election, and his legacy is truly damaging for the country.
    I'd come to that conclusion some time ago. Corbyn is Lansbury, Clegg is Simon, Ashdown is Lloyd George, Osborne is Chamberlain (pre-1937). Will Jarvis be Attlee and McClusky Bevin? The chance is perhaps there.
    I have Osborne down as the modern day Churchill, but the rest of the analogies work.

    Major Dan Jarvis could well be the modern day Major Clement Attlee
    Who's Mosley?
    I'm still working that out.
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    Has there been a result yet from Basingstoke or are there recounts?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The LDs have won the Highlands council seat by 25 votes after transfers despite being a long way behind on the first count which was as follows:

    Culloden and Ardsier

    SNP - 753 (27.2%)
    LIB - 463 (16.7%)
    CON - 439 (15.9%)
    IND - 315 (11.4%)
    IND - 274 (9.9%)
    GRN - 180 (6.5%)
    LAB - 163 (5.9%)
    IND - 158 (5.7%)
    IND - 23 (0.8%)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
    theakes said:

    Has there been a result yet from Basingstoke or are there recounts?

    Con 1051 (67.5%)
    LD 323 (20.7%)
    Lab 184 (11.9%)
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Floater said:

    TGOHF said:

    I for one will gladly give up the running of our country to avoid a temporary dip in the Forex rates.

    Who is with me ?

    Mark Senior for one.

    Some pathetic headless chickens around right now.
    Oh dear - let no-one suggest Brexit could conceivably bre anything but good for the UK economy. The £ in your pocket said Wilson in 67....
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Sean_F said:

    If Sterling were appreciating in value, I wonder how many of the headless chickens would be shrieking about the harm being done to exporters.

    The kep point seems that the £ has now been a one-way bet since the 1950s and nothing a P.M or govt. has done - least of all, that Bloody Woman 1979-90 - seems to improve UK PLC's ability to pay its way ... This ability might be improved by having 7 year vocational education programmes for all school leavers @ 16-17, as in Germany, and other drastic measures.

    It seems a shameful verdict on the management of UK PLC. Whether you look at the S.Fr or 'softer' currencies like the US or Canadian $, the £ has been sliding at an average of many percent per year, all my life.
This discussion has been closed.