Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With polls tightening & the betting moves to Trump tonight’

1235»

Comments

  • To be honest, I don’t see why Jeremy Corbyn (assuming he wins) should put up with any more disloyalty.
    If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).
    If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.
    People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.

    If that applied in the past Corbyn would have been removed from the Labour party. Oh the irony.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    I think your article is wishful thinking. Opinions are entrenched. At best they might go underground, but nobody who believed that Corbyn is wrong-headed and ineffective has had their mind changed by this campaign.

    The article doesn't actually propose that anyone changes their minds. It suggests a way for people with different views to live together. As EiT observes, there isn't actually a viable alternative under FPTP.

    In practice, as one of Corbyn's critics under the line suggests, there would be a challenge in 2019 if we were still doing badly. At that point, Corbyn's critics could say he'd been given a fair chance and it hadn't worked. At present, we could be led by the genetic merge of Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa (no not that Theresa) and we'd still be well behind, because we spend all our time shooting each other.
    If we were led by such a person, we would not be shooting each other. It's precisely because we're led by Jeremy Corbyn that we're shooting each other.

    So here's a genuine question. If a voter asks me "Do you have confidence in Jeremy Corbyn?", what should I say?
    You say what an applauding Harriet Harman said when Ed Miliband criticised the very Iraq War she strongly supported and voted for.

    "He is my leader and I am supporting my leader”.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    To be honest, I don’t see why Jeremy Corbyn (assuming he wins) should put up with any more disloyalty.
    If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).
    If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.
    People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.

    If that applied in the past Corbyn would have been removed from the Labour party. Oh the irony.
    When did Jeremy Corbyn offer to stab someone ?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    To be honest, I don’t see why Jeremy Corbyn (assuming he wins) should put up with any more disloyalty.

    If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).

    If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.

    People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.

    Throw out as in withdraw the whip?
  • tlg86 said:

    Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.

    Pot calling kettle etc.
    Ms Soubry is fragrant. She is the sitting MP for Broxtowe..
    A seat which will cease to exist in 2020. :)
    Good. One less socialist.
    Is it though? Nottingham South and Beeston is the new seat. Notional 5,000 majority according to UK Polling Report, but this is giving UKIP a notional 5,000. Will UKIP still be polling these kinds of numbers in 2020? That's an unknown.

    Having said that I expect if any of this reorg actually happens then Anna Sourby will be off to her mentor's old ground of Rushcliffe.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    She's pretty

    http://order-order.com/2016/09/16/another-top-kipper-defects-tories/

    UKIP: @Nigel_Farage makes his last speech as party leader at 1145. Watch LIVE on @SkyNews.
  • And there is still going to be Broxtowe - Broxtowe and Hucknall. Which is notionally Tory by about 2000.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Ishmael_X said:

    To be honest, I don’t see why Jeremy Corbyn (assuming he wins) should put up with any more disloyalty.

    If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).

    If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.

    People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.

    Throw out as in withdraw the whip?
    Suppose I am leading a team in a complex business deal or software project or piece of scientific research.

    The activity could be completed successfully with a member of the team saying "I will knife YBarddCwsc in the front” in the press every day or two.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    To be honest, I don’t see why Jeremy Corbyn (assuming he wins) should put up with any more disloyalty.

    If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).

    If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.

    People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.

    Throw out as in withdraw the whip?
    Suppose I am leading a team in a complex business deal or software project or piece of scientific research.

    The activity could be completed successfully with a member of the team saying "I will knife YBarddCwsc in the front” in the press every day or two.
    Yes, I had already understood your point. The question is, do you mean throw her out of the party or deselect her or withdraw the whip from her, or what?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296

    tlg86 said:

    Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.

    Pot calling kettle etc.
    Ms Soubry is fragrant. She is the sitting MP for Broxtowe..
    A seat which will cease to exist in 2020. :)
    Good. One less socialist.
    Is it though? Nottingham South and Beeston is the new seat. Notional 5,000 majority according to UK Polling Report, but this is giving UKIP a notional 5,000. Will UKIP still be polling these kinds of numbers in 2020? That's an unknown.

    Having said that I expect if any of this reorg actually happens then Anna Sourby will be off to her mentor's old ground of Rushcliffe.
    That's probably a good shout.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    I think your article is wishful thinking. Opinions are entrenched. At best they might go underground, but nobody who believed that Corbyn is wrong-headed and ineffective has had their mind changed by this campaign.

    The article doesn't actually propose that anyone changes their minds. It suggests a way for people with different views to live together. As EiT observes, there isn't actually a viable alternative under FPTP.

    In practice, as one of Corbyn's critics under the line suggests, there would be a challenge in 2019 if we were still doing badly. At that point, Corbyn's critics could say he'd been given a fair chance and it hadn't worked. At present, we could be led by the genetic merge of Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa (no not that Theresa) and we'd still be well behind, because we spend all our time shooting each other.
    If we were led by such a person, we would not be shooting each other. It's precisely because we're led by Jeremy Corbyn that we're shooting each other.

    So here's a genuine question. If a voter asks me "Do you have confidence in Jeremy Corbyn?", what should I say?
    That "I wouldn't trust him to sit on a toilet the right way round", as Rowen Atkinson once remarked in a sketch.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    If Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Maine CD2, Iowa and Colorado the electoral college ends in a tie !

    Faithless Electors?
  • To be honest, I don’t see why Jeremy Corbyn (assuming he wins) should put up with any more disloyalty.

    If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).

    If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.

    People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.

    Corbyn is in the same situation IDS was in as Tory leader. While he keeps getting pasted at PMQs, MPs will panic and want to ditch him. Just this week we can see that after one good win over Theresa May, olive branches are being extended. Corbyn needs to build on that win, and perhaps be a bit lighter on his toes. It's about competence more than policies (indeed on most issues you'd struggle to get a fag paper between Corbyn and Smith). Nothing succeeds like success.
  • Non-Corbynite Labour supporters don't seem to have resolved in their own minds whether their objection is to his aims or to his methods. They need to ask themselves whether they agree with his aims (but think that his methods won't work to secure victory) or whether they oppose his aims.

    If they oppose his aims they should, if defeated, continue to fight him by whatever means they consider most effective. If they agree with his aims they should, if defeated, accept the judgement of their fellow party members.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Scott_P said:

    Can we have a George Osborne next PM thread please?

    @DPJHodges: Amazing interview from George Osborne, newly appointed leader of the opposition.

    @ShippersUnbound: Osborne: "I don't want to write my memoirs because I don't know how the story ends." Translation: "I'm 45, the PM is 59. Capiche?"

    did say there would be a way back for Osborne. He's not given up yet.

    Mind you, he could just be the next David Miliband....
    I can't see GO as Prime Minister - he was soooo unpopular as chancellor and that would be flung at him constantly by the BBC/ Labour Party. "The ex Austerity Chancellor would lead us back into recession", that sort of thing.

    If the 'pie-in-the-sky' northern powerhouse comes off then I might review this but, IMHO, it is a white elephant whose benefits won't warrant the money invested/spent on it.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:
    Key quote: "When Theresa May became Prime Minister and immediately embarked on promoting a policy reintroducing selective education to build social mobility, assenting to explorative fracking for future energy security and approaching Brexit with a pragmatism and determination I find admirable, I knew it was time to go home"

    This is a gift for the other parties, particularly in Witney, and particularly the LibDems. The attack line becomes "Vote Conservative, get UKIP".
  • I myself assume that the moment May triggers A50 (without going to parliament) then the Brexit war is won - not just the battle - because our actual departure then becomes unavoidable. We will have crossed the event horizon. At that point UKIP has succeeded and can disband. Many right and centre-right Kippers will take a look at May and feel very happy to 'come home' too. That's 3.9 million votes to eat up potentially. Labour had 9.3 million votes for UKIP to eat too!
  • Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.

    Pot calling kettle etc.
    Ms Soubry is fragrant. She is the sitting MP for Broxtowe..
    And the fragrance in question is gin from what can be gathered. ALLEDGEDLY
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited September 2016

    Incidentally, I wrote the lead Labour List piece this morning:

    http://labourlist.org/

    A good effort Nick, to get the party talking about the government rather than about each other. Hopefully things will settle down after Jeremy is corfirmed as leader next weekend, and the party can start to work together to hold the government to account.

    If the infighting doesn't stop, then will we see a defection or two over the Conference season?
  • SKY - The outgoing UKIP leader has said the Archbishop of Canterbury should go because he is not prepared to "stand up for Christian values".

    Speaking to Sky News as he prepared to give his last conference speech as leader of the party, he rounded on Justin Welby, who criticised him for giving legitimacy to racism during the EU referendum campaign.

    http://news.sky.com/story/farage-on-carswell-i-dont-know-why-he-joined-10579532

    Well that’s one way to promote the UKIP conference…!
  • weejonnie said:

    Scott_P said:

    Can we have a George Osborne next PM thread please?

    @DPJHodges: Amazing interview from George Osborne, newly appointed leader of the opposition.

    @ShippersUnbound: Osborne: "I don't want to write my memoirs because I don't know how the story ends." Translation: "I'm 45, the PM is 59. Capiche?"

    did say there would be a way back for Osborne. He's not given up yet.

    Mind you, he could just be the next David Miliband....
    I can't see GO as Prime Minister - he was soooo unpopular as chancellor and that would be flung at him constantly by the BBC/ Labour Party. "The ex Austerity Chancellor would lead us back into recession", that sort of thing.

    If the 'pie-in-the-sky' northern powerhouse comes off then I might review this but, IMHO, it is a white elephant whose benefits won't warrant the money invested/spent on it.
    Much water must flow under the bridge, but GO is a highly skilled player of the game, whatever one thinks of him personally or policy-wise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    weejonnie said:

    Scott_P said:

    Can we have a George Osborne next PM thread please?

    @DPJHodges: Amazing interview from George Osborne, newly appointed leader of the opposition.

    @ShippersUnbound: Osborne: "I don't want to write my memoirs because I don't know how the story ends." Translation: "I'm 45, the PM is 59. Capiche?"

    did say there would be a way back for Osborne. He's not given up yet.

    Mind you, he could just be the next David Miliband....
    I can't see GO as Prime Minister - he was soooo unpopular as chancellor and that would be flung at him constantly by the BBC/ Labour Party. "The ex Austerity Chancellor would lead us back into recession", that sort of thing.

    If the 'pie-in-the-sky' northern powerhouse comes off then I might review this but, IMHO, it is a white elephant whose benefits won't warrant the money invested/spent on it.
    George was talking about improving transport links between northern cities this morning. Sounded sensible enough.
  • He does have a wonky jaw. Are we not allowed to mention it?
  • A surprisingly good speech at UKIP conf from Lord Stevens. Taking the p out of REMAIN people.
  • Non-Corbynite Labour supporters don't seem to have resolved in their own minds whether their objection is to his aims or to his methods. They need to ask themselves whether they agree with his aims (but think that his methods won't work to secure victory) or whether they oppose his aims.

    If they oppose his aims they should, if defeated, continue to fight him by whatever means they consider most effective. If they agree with his aims they should, if defeated, accept the judgement of their fellow party members.

    We are repeatedly told that the Labour is pretty much agreed on policy front and united behind the anti-austerity economics. Trident is the only thing they don't agree on.

    I think this is balderdash.

    They don't all agree on policy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    A surprisingly good speech at UKIP conf from Lord Stevens. Taking the p out of REMAIN people.

    Are you in the Conservative or UKIP camp at the moment, I can never remember :)
  • "Morgan Stanley predicted a FTSE fall of a fifth... it is up 11%" Lord Stevens of Ludgate.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dearie me :smiley:

    Ed West
    someone should try writing a Nordic-style skaldic heroic poem about him https://t.co/0p4nAxqcbB
  • Bloody opportunistic lawyers doing down our brave boys. Or something.

    https://twitter.com/Sneekyboy/status/776710344123092992
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Patrick said:

    I myself assume that the moment May triggers A50 (without going to parliament) then the Brexit war is won - not just the battle - because our actual departure then becomes unavoidable. We will have crossed the event horizon. At that point UKIP has succeeded and can disband. Many right and centre-right Kippers will take a look at May and feel very happy to 'come home' too. That's 3.9 million votes to eat up potentially. Labour had 9.3 million votes for UKIP to eat too!

    I think we've already crossed the event horizon, or at least the rest of the EU thinks so - that's why they are having meetings without us.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    PA
    #Breaking Sweden's Court of Appeal refuses bid by Julian Assange to have his case "set aside", saying no new information has emerged
  • George Osborne is a young politician with a lot of experience and a lot of nous. His comments this morning were ill-advised: for the coming months he should be keeping largely quiet and busying himself finding out about aspects of public life that have passed him by in the last few years.

    His time will come again, and it will come again sooner if he sees his current eclipse as an opportunity rather than a crisis.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    tlg86 said:

    Patrick said:

    I myself assume that the moment May triggers A50 (without going to parliament) then the Brexit war is won - not just the battle - because our actual departure then becomes unavoidable. We will have crossed the event horizon. At that point UKIP has succeeded and can disband. Many right and centre-right Kippers will take a look at May and feel very happy to 'come home' too. That's 3.9 million votes to eat up potentially. Labour had 9.3 million votes for UKIP to eat too!

    I think we've already crossed the event horizon, or at least the rest of the EU thinks so - that's why they are having meetings without us.
    I am not a physicist but I think "achieved escape velocity" would be a more upbeat metaphor than "crossed the event horizon".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    Scott_P said:

    Can we have a George Osborne next PM thread please?

    @DPJHodges: Amazing interview from George Osborne, newly appointed leader of the opposition.

    @ShippersUnbound: Osborne: "I don't want to write my memoirs because I don't know how the story ends." Translation: "I'm 45, the PM is 59. Capiche?"

    did say there would be a way back for Osborne. He's not given up yet.

    Mind you, he could just be the next David Miliband....
    I can't see GO as Prime Minister - he was soooo unpopular as chancellor and that would be flung at him constantly by the BBC/ Labour Party. "The ex Austerity Chancellor would lead us back into recession", that sort of thing.

    If the 'pie-in-the-sky' northern powerhouse comes off then I might review this but, IMHO, it is a white elephant whose benefits won't warrant the money invested/spent on it.
    George was talking about improving transport links between northern cities this morning. Sounded sensible enough.
    If he can keep his Northern Powerhouse policies on the govt's agenda, then he will remain popular in a whole host of local marginals in Northern towns.
  • Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    Scott_P said:

    Can we have a George Osborne next PM thread please?

    @DPJHodges: Amazing interview from George Osborne, newly appointed leader of the opposition.

    @ShippersUnbound: Osborne: "I don't want to write my memoirs because I don't know how the story ends." Translation: "I'm 45, the PM is 59. Capiche?"

    did say there would be a way back for Osborne. He's not given up yet.

    Mind you, he could just be the next David Miliband....
    I can't see GO as Prime Minister - he was soooo unpopular as chancellor and that would be flung at him constantly by the BBC/ Labour Party. "The ex Austerity Chancellor would lead us back into recession", that sort of thing.

    If the 'pie-in-the-sky' northern powerhouse comes off then I might review this but, IMHO, it is a white elephant whose benefits won't warrant the money invested/spent on it.
    George was talking about improving transport links between northern cities this morning. Sounded sensible enough.
    The Northern Powerhouse is very similar to what Tristram Hunt has been talking about wrt cities.

    Plus capping HS2 with a decent Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds - Newcastle line is an absolute no brainer, right?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited September 2016
    Patrick said:

    I myself assume that the moment May triggers A50 (without going to parliament) then the Brexit war is won - not just the battle - because our actual departure then becomes unavoidable. We will have crossed the event horizon. At that point UKIP has succeeded and can disband. Many right and centre-right Kippers will take a look at May and feel very happy to 'come home' too. That's 3.9 million votes to eat up potentially. Labour had 9.3 million votes for UKIP to eat too!

    Agreed, which is why those opposed to Brexit want a vote on it in Parliament. Not so the issues can be debated, but so that it can be voted down, especially in the Lords. The PM understands this, which is why she's getting her ducks in a row behind the scenes and will make the declaration early in the new year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Ishmael_X said:

    tlg86 said:

    Patrick said:

    I myself assume that the moment May triggers A50 (without going to parliament) then the Brexit war is won - not just the battle - because our actual departure then becomes unavoidable. We will have crossed the event horizon. At that point UKIP has succeeded and can disband. Many right and centre-right Kippers will take a look at May and feel very happy to 'come home' too. That's 3.9 million votes to eat up potentially. Labour had 9.3 million votes for UKIP to eat too!

    I think we've already crossed the event horizon, or at least the rest of the EU thinks so - that's why they are having meetings without us.
    I am not a physicist but I think "achieved escape velocity" would be a more upbeat metaphor than "crossed the event horizon".
    Or we jumped off the cliff and are enjoying the breeze and view
  • PlatoSaid said:

    PA
    #Breaking Sweden's Court of Appeal refuses bid by Julian Assange to have his case "set aside", saying no new information has emerged

    Half a dozen diplomats just burst into tears at the Embassy of Ecuador...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,064


    Witney 2001 (Cameron's first election):

    Con 45.0, Lab 28.8, LD 20.3, Grn 2.2, Ind 2.0, UKIP 1.6

    Now, the Tories are stronger now than in 2001 but in government at a byelection rather than opposition. So my first guess at a par result would be Con 45, Lab 21, LD 17. My instinct is that it will end up closer than that.

    As I recall, he took on the seat at short notice following the defection of Shaun Woodward. It's probably fair to say, Paddy's intervention notwithstanding, the LDs will put in the effort. On the 2015 numbers, the required swing to take the seat is huge but looking at earlier elections, it's not so bad.

    I think candidate selection will be vital - both the LDs and UKIP need to find a strong local figure while the Conservatives will remember from Romsey it's vitally important they also have a strong local candidate.

    There isn't a lot of time but there's enough - the Party Conference seasons will take place during the campaign as well.
  • He does have a wonky jaw. Are we not allowed to mention it?
    Hearty choruses of 'Nigel has only got one ball' all round.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    PA
    #Breaking Sweden's Court of Appeal refuses bid by Julian Assange to have his case "set aside", saying no new information has emerged

    How much is Britain still paying for police surveillance for this farce?

    If 'Sweden' wants him, they can pay as far as I'm concerned.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: MPs to debate recommissioning Britannia for Brexit trade talks next month: https://t.co/AfTmdV9JCE

    How desperate can they get
    From the people I've spoken to over the years, it was surprising impactful in trade. People really liked being invited onto the "Royal Yacht" for trade talks. Idiotic and superficial, but very effective and low cost branding. So why not?
  • Non-Corbynite Labour supporters don't seem to have resolved in their own minds whether their objection is to his aims or to his methods. They need to ask themselves whether they agree with his aims (but think that his methods won't work to secure victory) or whether they oppose his aims.

    If they oppose his aims they should, if defeated, continue to fight him by whatever means they consider most effective. If they agree with his aims they should, if defeated, accept the judgement of their fellow party members.

    Are we talking about his aims for the country or his aims for the Labour Party? As far as the former goes they presumably think he's going to lose the election, so it doesn't really matter what his aims are. For the latter, I'd imagine engage-and-resist would be a better strategy than sulking, apart from people who think they can viably continue their careers in another party.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,807
    Event horizon, escape velocity, point of no return, burnt bridges.
    All lovely metaphors.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    Ishmael_X said:

    tlg86 said:

    Patrick said:

    I myself assume that the moment May triggers A50 (without going to parliament) then the Brexit war is won - not just the battle - because our actual departure then becomes unavoidable. We will have crossed the event horizon. At that point UKIP has succeeded and can disband. Many right and centre-right Kippers will take a look at May and feel very happy to 'come home' too. That's 3.9 million votes to eat up potentially. Labour had 9.3 million votes for UKIP to eat too!

    I think we've already crossed the event horizon, or at least the rest of the EU thinks so - that's why they are having meetings without us.
    I am not a physicist but I think "achieved escape velocity" would be a more upbeat metaphor than "crossed the event horizon".
    Seems like an apt metaphor to me. We will have jumped into a financial black hole. What's not to like?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,807
    geoffw said:

    Event horizon, escape velocity, point of no return, burnt bridges.
    All lovely metaphors.

    To which we now add "trigger article 50".
  • Clearly TSE and @Morris_Dancer are not around or we would have had "alea iacta est" mentioned by now.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    tlg86 said:

    Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.

    Pot calling kettle etc.
    Ms Soubry is fragrant. She is the sitting MP for Broxtowe..
    A seat which will cease to exist in 2020. :)
    Good. One less socialist.
    Is it though? Nottingham South and Beeston is the new seat. Notional 5,000 majority according to UK Polling Report, but this is giving UKIP a notional 5,000. Will UKIP still be polling these kinds of numbers in 2020? That's an unknown.

    Having said that I expect if any of this reorg actually happens then Anna Sourby will be off to her mentor's old ground of Rushcliffe.
    The seat has split in half. If the changes go through, Anna can choose between Nottingham South and Beeston (which would be brave - a lot of that is Guardianista territory as much as Cambridge, with a nominal 5K Labour majority), or Broxtowe and Hucknall (which has a nominal 2K Tory lead). I think the party would frown on her rejecting both and buzzing off to Rushcliffe. I was told that enquiries had been made about moving to Rushcliffe before 2015 and cold water was poured on the idea, so she stood her ground and won.
  • Mr. Meeks, like Hannibal at Lake Trasimene, I'm lurking in the fog.
  • geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Event horizon, escape velocity, point of no return, burnt bridges.
    All lovely metaphors.

    To which we now add "trigger article 50".
    That one's more like waiting for Godot.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    He does have a wonky jaw. Are we not allowed to mention it?
    Hearty choruses of 'Nigel has only got one ball' all round.
    A bit like who was it again?

    Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
    An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that @BarackObama's birth certificate is a fraud.
    9:23 PM - 6 Aug 2012

    Wow, just wow. Hillary is bad, but not THAT bad. Wtf America?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paul Waugh
    Exclusive: Dan Javis among a raft of ex-frontbenchers lined up to join Jeremy Corbyn's team after his re-election. https://t.co/hyt1rnbAOh
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited September 2016
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: MPs to debate recommissioning Britannia for Brexit trade talks next month: https://t.co/AfTmdV9JCE

    How desperate can they get
    From the people I've spoken to over the years, it was surprising impactful in trade. People really liked being invited onto the "Royal Yacht" for trade talks. Idiotic and superficial, but very effective and low cost branding. So why not?
    Quite. Republicans in the U.K. underestimate the impact these symbols have abroad. Worth every penny in marketing Britain across the world. Even £100m isn't much when spread over 30 or 40 years.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    edited September 2016
    stodge said:


    Witney 2001 (Cameron's first election):

    Con 45.0, Lab 28.8, LD 20.3, Grn 2.2, Ind 2.0, UKIP 1.6

    Now, the Tories are stronger now than in 2001 but in government at a byelection rather than opposition. So my first guess at a par result would be Con 45, Lab 21, LD 17. My instinct is that it will end up closer than that.

    As I recall, he took on the seat at short notice following the defection of Shaun Woodward. It's probably fair to say, Paddy's intervention notwithstanding, the LDs will put in the effort. On the 2015 numbers, the required swing to take the seat is huge but looking at earlier elections, it's not so bad.

    I think candidate selection will be vital - both the LDs and UKIP need to find a strong local figure while the Conservatives will remember from Romsey it's vitally important they also have a strong local candidate.
    LDs are spoiled for choice with local candidates (equally, they do have the potential to screw it up). UKIP candidate history locally is interesting: in 2010 they fielded Count Nikolai Tolstoy. Unlike the LibDems and Labour, they don't have any local councillors to give them name recognition.

    There are several factions in the local Conservatives, particularly an increasingly vicious spat between County Council and District Council (both Conservative-controlled), and it's possible that if a candidate from one faction is chosen then the others will refuse to campaign. Labour had a strong candidate in 2015 but he's very anti-Corbyn, so may not be reselected. Local Green candidate is long established but hopeless.

    I'm guessing Con, LD, Lab, UKIP, Green, but couldn't put numbers to that. I don't think it's a given that the Conservatives will hit 40% and I wouldn't completely rule out an upset.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    nunu said:

    He does have a wonky jaw. Are we not allowed to mention it?
    Hearty choruses of 'Nigel has only got one ball' all round.
    A bit like who was it again?

    Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
    An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that @BarackObama's birth certificate is a fraud.
    9:23 PM - 6 Aug 2012

    Wow, just wow. Hillary is bad, but not THAT bad. Wtf America?
    Trump is not saying anything himself there, he's saying that someone told him something.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Ruh roh, DoJ in shock hitting back at European company move, fines Deutsche Bank $14bn over mortgage fraud. The whole of DB is valued at €16bn at the moment.

    This could bankrupt them if the US insists on payment and with no way of raising capital from the public sector (thanks to Brussels) DB might have to raise money by hitting uninsured depositors and retail bond holders.

    Let's see if the US decides to back down or if DB find a way to worm their way out.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    philiph said:

    Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.

    Pot calling kettle etc.
    John McDonnell tells the truth to Mr A. Campbell - that Mr A. Campbell is more responsible than any other individual for the modern day widespread mistrust of Politicians.
    Never thought I agree with anything John McDonnell said, but that comment is spot on.
    Me too
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    PlatoSaid said:

    Paul Waugh
    Exclusive: Dan Javis among a raft of ex-frontbenchers lined up to join Jeremy Corbyn's team after his re-election. https://t.co/hyt1rnbAOh

    I'm sure they'll have fun formulating policy...
  • MaxPB said:

    Ruh roh, DoJ in shock hitting back at European company move, fines Deutsche Bank $14bn over mortgage fraud. The whole of DB is valued at €16bn at the moment.

    This could bankrupt them if the US insists on payment and with no way of raising capital from the public sector (thanks to Brussels) DB might have to raise money by hitting uninsured depositors and retail bond holders.

    Let's see if the US decides to back down or if DB find a way to worm their way out.

    Ah trade wars.... what fun.
  • tlg86 said:

    Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.

    Pot calling kettle etc.
    Ms Soubry is fragrant. She is the sitting MP for Broxtowe..
    A seat which will cease to exist in 2020. :)
    Good. One less socialist.
    Is it though? Nottingham South and Beeston is the new seat. Notional 5,000 majority according to UK Polling Report, but this is giving UKIP a notional 5,000. Will UKIP still be polling these kinds of numbers in 2020? That's an unknown.

    Having said that I expect if any of this reorg actually happens then Anna Sourby will be off to her mentor's old ground of Rushcliffe.
    The seat has split in half. If the changes go through, Anna can choose between Nottingham South and Beeston (which would be brave - a lot of that is Guardianista territory as much as Cambridge, with a nominal 5K Labour majority), or Broxtowe and Hucknall (which has a nominal 2K Tory lead). I think the party would frown on her rejecting both and buzzing off to Rushcliffe. I was told that enquiries had been made about moving to Rushcliffe before 2015 and cold water was poured on the idea, so she stood her ground and won.
    Thanks Nick. But how many of the local tory members have the stomach to put up with Sourby?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: MPs to debate recommissioning Britannia for Brexit trade talks next month: https://t.co/AfTmdV9JCE

    How desperate can they get
    From the people I've spoken to over the years, it was surprising impactful in trade. People really liked being invited onto the "Royal Yacht" for trade talks. Idiotic and superficial, but very effective and low cost branding. So why not?
    Quite. Republicans in the U.K. underestimate the impact these symbols have abroad. Worth every penny in marketing Britain across the world. Even £100m isn't much when spread over 30 or 40 years.
    They don't underestimate it, they hate that it's true. It's the reality denying that makes republicans so funny in the UK.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,239
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: More people think Theresa May is "in touch with ordinary people" than think Jeremy Corbyn is https://t.co/yuPEzVvcx4

    In fairness she is pretty ordinary and he really can't aspire to that status.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MaxPB said:

    Ruh roh, DoJ in shock hitting back at European company move, fines Deutsche Bank $14bn over mortgage fraud. The whole of DB is valued at €16bn at the moment.

    This could bankrupt them if the US insists on payment and with no way of raising capital from the public sector (thanks to Brussels) DB might have to raise money by hitting uninsured depositors and retail bond holders.

    Let's see if the US decides to back down or if DB find a way to worm their way out.

    Ah is that what has sent my rbs shares down this morning ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ruh roh, DoJ in shock hitting back at European company move, fines Deutsche Bank $14bn over mortgage fraud. The whole of DB is valued at €16bn at the moment.

    This could bankrupt them if the US insists on payment and with no way of raising capital from the public sector (thanks to Brussels) DB might have to raise money by hitting uninsured depositors and retail bond holders.

    Let's see if the US decides to back down or if DB find a way to worm their way out.

    Ah is that what has sent my rbs shares down this morning ?
    yes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334

    MaxPB said:

    Ruh roh, DoJ in shock hitting back at European company move, fines Deutsche Bank $14bn over mortgage fraud. The whole of DB is valued at €16bn at the moment.

    This could bankrupt them if the US insists on payment and with no way of raising capital from the public sector (thanks to Brussels) DB might have to raise money by hitting uninsured depositors and retail bond holders.

    Let's see if the US decides to back down or if DB find a way to worm their way out.

    Ah trade wars.... what fun.
    You see, the EU could have said to Apple and other American companies that using the stateless entities in Ireland to avoid tax is state aid, but we won't apply it retrospectively so from today those entities must be dissolved and all cash must go through the Irish head office and be taxable at the 12.5% rate. That they went down the retrospective tax recovery route has been seen as incendiary by the Americans, and European companies are going to pay for it (another vindication of our leave vote).
  • Non-Corbynite Labour supporters don't seem to have resolved in their own minds whether their objection is to his aims or to his methods. They need to ask themselves whether they agree with his aims (but think that his methods won't work to secure victory) or whether they oppose his aims.

    If they oppose his aims they should, if defeated, continue to fight him by whatever means they consider most effective. If they agree with his aims they should, if defeated, accept the judgement of their fellow party members.

    This is where the moderates' campaign strategy has been so disastrous. Owen Smith pitching himself as a tidier version of Jez has allowed McDonnell to legitimately claim "there is no real difference on policy". There should be, and the moderates know it.
  • new thread

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ruh roh, DoJ in shock hitting back at European company move, fines Deutsche Bank $14bn over mortgage fraud. The whole of DB is valued at €16bn at the moment.

    This could bankrupt them if the US insists on payment and with no way of raising capital from the public sector (thanks to Brussels) DB might have to raise money by hitting uninsured depositors and retail bond holders.

    Let's see if the US decides to back down or if DB find a way to worm their way out.

    Ah is that what has sent my rbs shares down this morning ?
    Yes, but RBS won't get fined as much, if anything really.
  • Reading Nick's article, and the Paul Waugh article which Plato just linked to, prompted me to look again at the 'Corbyn To Go Before Next General Election?' market on Betfair.

    I was already on No, and I've just topped up at 1.5. This looks like a no-brainer to me, apart from actuarial risk. Sad though it is from the points of view both of entertainment and betting opportunities, I have to say that Nick is right when he says in his article: Forget about a third leadership election before 2020. Once was necessary when Ed stood down. Twice was perhaps understandable in view of the PLP unrest. Three would be ridiculous. At some point the result of elections needs to be respected, and we’ve reached it.

    In addition, there's a kind of stalemate which makes Corbyn's position very strong indeed.
  • George Osborne is a young politician with a lot of experience and a lot of nous. His comments this morning were ill-advised: for the coming months he should be keeping largely quiet and busying himself finding out about aspects of public life that have passed him by in the last few years......

    Agreed Mr Meeks. Also Osborne needs to go through some form of atonement before taking the public stage again.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ruh roh, DoJ in shock hitting back at European company move, fines Deutsche Bank $14bn over mortgage fraud. The whole of DB is valued at €16bn at the moment.

    This could bankrupt them if the US insists on payment and with no way of raising capital from the public sector (thanks to Brussels) DB might have to raise money by hitting uninsured depositors and retail bond holders.

    Let's see if the US decides to back down or if DB find a way to worm their way out.

    Ah trade wars.... what fun.
    You see, the EU could have said to Apple and other American companies that using the stateless entities in Ireland to avoid tax is state aid, but we won't apply it retrospectively so from today those entities must be dissolved and all cash must go through the Irish head office and be taxable at the 12.5% rate. That they went down the retrospective tax recovery route has been seen as incendiary by the Americans, and European companies are going to pay for it (another vindication of our leave vote).
    It seems slightly illogical to complain, given that the USA will charge corporation tax at 35% if Apple brings the money back home. However, I suppose retrospective legislation is a bad idea.

    35% seems quite a sensible tax rate, being closer to income tax rates and giving less scope for tax fiddles, er sorry, 'expert and prudent tax planning'. I think the USA could legitimately ask EU member states to stop levying predatory tax rates on company profits; i.e., acting as mini-tax havens by taxing US-based co.s at 5 or 12% not 35%.
This discussion has been closed.