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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With polls tightening & the betting moves to Trump tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show/Podcast returns to WH2016
Joining Keiran (on the programme is the Politco polling analyst, Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) and Federica Cocco (@federicacocco) statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK.
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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/15/brexit-liberalism-post-liberal-age?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Well I defer to your better judgement Dr Fox In Ox.
The way she looks, speaks, walks briskly, etc. Looks utterly unlike anybody with pneumonia I've ever seen but you know better than me.
Brexit was the wrong decision made for the wrong reasons. The kind of liberal free-trading outlook you support has few better allies in the world than the EU.
Tonight's local by-elections include some interesting places... https://t.co/YnZdnwgWst https://t.co/6N3P499T3W
Clinton skirts two questions about when Kaine knew about the diagnosis. Her answers here: https://t.co/9c3q9pd7Hr
She sounds like a robot
And there was me thinking I got a good deal, laying her @ 1000
#puntersregrets
Clinton comes across as a pathological liar.
(FWIW, I'm sure he'd be a more responsible President than some fear. But his dishonest and demagogic campaign really shouldn't be rewarded.)
You can get 7/4 or 15/8 on The Donald. Which can't be too bad on a 40% chance of winning
(Am I right here: You gain 2.8 and lose 2.4 or gain 6 and lose 4.8?)
Why so many others do not, baffles me.
It means a belief in the nation state, but, nowadays, is too often used as shorthand for being a fascist.
If they did, they would have meant for people like them, not the masses.
Regarding the question of voting Trump vs Hillary - I'd vote Trump. What he says vs what he sticks with are two very different things. He's a NY liberal sort playing to the gallery IMO. He gets populism and riding the wave.
I find everything about Hillary totally repellent - a liar, crook and machine politician. If she hadn't been married to the phenomenon that was Bill, she'd never get a look in. She's Cherie Blair with knob on.
The problem is that if you want to be successful, globalisation is the only game in town. There is literally no alternative to the EU (which doesn't necessarily mean it will work, of course).
Donald Trump, 70
Hillary Clinton, 68
Bernie Sanders, 75
Tim Kaine, 58
Are they trying to tell us something?
It was a unifying, organising force to bring together disparate groups under a common system of government at a higher level than had previously been the case.
A British comparison might be Cherie Blair as Labour leader versus Nigel Farage as Tory leader.
Worth a read, IMHO...
"The manufacturing and technology sectors are incredibly important industries to U.S. power and prestige in Trump’s view. Regaining America’s place as a heavy manufacturing leader is paramount for Trump. Renegotiating trade deals or effectively enforcing them to protect American competitiveness is necessary to reversing the relative decline of U.S. industry and the leakage of jobs overseas."
Hypothetical: UK is single largest foreign direct investor to US, a reliable ally with a conservative leader, and not a threat to Trump's vision. TTIP (and CETA) both founder. Trump seeks renegotiation of NAFTA, to reduce leakage of jobs to Mexico. UK invited to negotiating table. UK joins NAFTA.
Likely just a wild speculation on my part, but the first necessary prerequisite - a Trump victory - should, as things stand, come as no great surprise to anyone.
It often seems to me that the where the EU went mad was in 1989 - the fall of communism inspired a bunch of old politicians that they could achieve their goal of the United States of Europe in a few short years, rather than generations.
Etymologically nation has to do with birth, and the idea that that principally means where you are born, rather than your ethnolinguistic family background, is very new even in most of the places where it's evident - and in much of the world, it isn't even evident.
Both have been caught out telling untruths on an epic scale, the problem for the American people is it is one or the other.
1) Only countries that accept unrestricted immigration can succeed.
2) Only countries in the EU can succeed.
3) Australia is successful, restricts immigration and isn't in the EU. And isn't a Nazi hellhole...
4) It's supposed to be a law abiding country founded by importing criminals, and they are supposed to have a mammal with the body of a beaver, the mouth of a duck. Which lays eggs...
Yes, it is high time to put an end to the Australia story. Nonsense for children....
In the UK, I don't think that's the case, but we are pragmatic and know dud ideological dogma when we see it. Particularly when it's fashionable on the continent.
The almost theological worship of unadulterated free movement is that dogma today.
There were staggering proportions (around a third IIRC) of some countries that emigrated in the 19th Century - mostly to the US.
TV Commercial for the Sony Betamax VCR #2 - 1977. https://t.co/tPZSDtlMVP
Whatever makes Oz successful (mostly a commodity driven economy and immigration in my view) it is not the example of restricting immigration that you are looking for. Japan may be a better choice as an example of a country unsullied by immigrants.
Had hundreds of thousands of poor Chinese or Indians made their way into the UK as immigrants, the rules would have been tightened, by the Whigs, very quickly.
Australia has higher immigration than the UK does in the EU. And I don't believe most people do make the distinction between "controlled" but higher immigration and "out of control" but actually lower immigration. They see the people on their streets.
And, PS, Australia also has politicians who claim Australia is being swamped by immigration. You don't need the EU as a bogeyman for that.
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/aus/all/show/2012/
Brexit i could understand- but struggling to see any redeeming features for Trump.
ProTip: Don't run to the bathroom during a @HillaryClinton press availability. It'll be over before you flush.
Again she did a whole four questions, it's a box tick nothing more.
The UK has a complex economy, far higher population density and will require an appropriately complex system.
Eventually democracy has (hopefully) prevailed after a govt was coralled by a combination of accident and design into giving democracy an actual go.
When asked, the people didn't want the European project as it looked in 2016.
Could you ever imagine Nick Robinson standing up during GE campaign and saying Mrs May, what do you think about Sky Sports vs R4 coverage of the Test Matches...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1960