Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
Guess which campaign just posted a statement about Birtherism.
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak. Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?
Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?
The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
Whatever the link between Westminster and locals, and I accept that the Lib Dems can do better in the latter where limited resources can be better focussed, it shows that the IPSOS Mori poll yesterday where they were at 6% is pants.
A lot of amputees and paraplegics who were formely fit young men too, thanks to Donald's frriend Vladimir. The paralympics started for wounded soldiers.
It is also good to see countries like Nigeria doing so well, rather than the same old cohort.
That rings true, despite the implications of what it means being rather disturbing.
Does anyone really believe Labour are on 34%?. I find it not credible.
No. But if you are an average non-Tory not really interested or paying much attention to politics right now and you get asked by a pollster today out of the blue, what else are you to say? There is a world of difference between giving an instinctive anti-government response to a pollster and walking deliberately to the polls to cast a knowing vote for Corbyn as PM.
28-34% is piss-poor for the Opposition, at this stage.
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
Guess which campaign just posted a statement about Birtherism.
Over reacting again, I see. If anything the statement casts a bad light on Clinton as well. Anyone who reads it comes away with the impression that they are as bad as each other, a net gain for Trump. It's a clever statement to release just when the Dems were about to get the whole Trump is a birther bandwagon going.
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak. Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?
Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?
The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
Whatever the link between Westminster and locals, and I accept that the Lib Dems can do better in the latter where limited resources can be better focussed, it shows that the IPSOS Mori poll yesterday where they were at 6% is pants.
The reality is probably about 10% support.
They really ought to be breathing hard down labours neck as a credible opposition.
I see the kiddies who brought London City to a standstill got off with a slap on the wrist and a 95 quid fine. Yes 95 quid!!
We had a major meeting the following morning in London and flights were still being cancelled as a result so we then had to complete this by phone etc. It was not what we wanted as it was more important than that. The cost of travel alone ( flights can be reimbursed or rebooked) not trains hotels etc.
They should have been given jail terms and very lengthy ones. Meanwhile as LJ points out I shall be virtually strip searched when next I try to simply catch a flight going about my normal business.
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
It is encouraging.
Farron believes that every council seat matters, and is worth fighting for. The plan of building a number of hotspots in local government, then to fight these as parliamentary seats is a realistic one.
If James is the new Kipper leader, it will be hard to differentiate from the Tories, except for James having better social and presentational skills to May. Policy will be much the same and it leaves a lot of space for the LDs.
Which is interesting but doesn't resolve the dilemma of what the LDs stand for at a national level - will triangulation ever return? If so, Farron is not the person who can do it.
Farron is a lower middle class Northerner - even a little bit "socially conservative" but with quite a strong agenda on building social housing, early years education and similar issues. He is a good ground level campaigner, which is what is needed at present to rebuild the party base.
If UKIP go for Broughton he will find it tougher, but if James leads UKIP, Corbyn holds on in Labour and May is like a low rent Maggie without the charm, then I can see Farron doing well.
People like Corbyn because of his unspun nature, but Farron has this too and indeed a far more effective record in opposing military adventures, without the IRA baggage of Corbyn/McDonnell.
I am optomistic for the future, though the conference will be telling, particularly the Euro-debate.
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
It is encouraging.
Farron believes that every council seat matters, and is worth fighting for. The plan of building a number of hotspots in local government, then to fight these as parliamentary seats is a realistic one.
If James is the new Kipper leader, it will be hard to differentiate from the Tories, except for James having better social and presentational skills to May. Policy will be much the same and it leaves a lot of space for the LDs.
Which is interesting but doesn't resolve the dilemma of what the LDs stand for at a national level - will triangulation ever return? If so, Farron is not the person who can do it.
Farron is a lower middle class Northerner - even a little bit "socially conservative" but with quite a strong agenda on building social housing, early years education and similar issues. He is a good ground level campaigner, which is what is needed at present to rebuild the party base.
If UKIP go for Broughton he will find it tougher, but if James leads UKIP, Corbyn holds on in Labour and May is like a low rent Maggie without the charm, then I can see Farron doing well.
People like Corbyn because of his unspun nature, but Farron has this too and indeed a far more effective record in opposing military adventures, without the IRA baggage of Corbyn/McDonnell.
I am optomistic for the future, though the conference will be telling, particularly the Euro-debate.
I see the kiddies who brought London City to a standstill got off with a slap on the wrist and a 95 quid fine. Yes 95 quid!!
We had a major meeting the following morning in London and flights were still being cancelled as a result so we then had to complete this by phone etc. It was not what we wanted as it was more important than that. The cost of travel alone ( flights can be reimbursed or rebooked) not trains hotels etc.
They should have been given jail terms and very lengthy ones. Meanwhile as LJ points out I shall be virtually strip searched when next I try to simply catch a flight going about my normal business.
I see the kiddies who brought London City to a standstill got off with a slap on the wrist and a 95 quid fine. Yes 95 quid!!
We had a major meeting the following morning in London and flights were still being cancelled as a result so we then had to complete this by phone etc. It was not what we wanted as it was more important than that. The cost of travel alone ( flights can be reimbursed or rebooked) not trains hotels etc.
They should have been given jail terms and very lengthy ones. Meanwhile as LJ points out I shall be virtually strip searched when next I try to simply catch a flight going about my normal business.
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
Alex Phillips, a senior UKIP aide to Welsh AM Nathan Gill has defected to the Tories the BBC is reporting over Theresa May's backing for grammars and commitment to Brexit
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak. Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?
Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?
The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
In local byelections, sure.
By the same token, Labour and the Tories are on the way down. Witney will be an interesting test of where the parties now stand.
I see the kiddies who brought London City to a standstill got off with a slap on the wrist and a 95 quid fine. Yes 95 quid!!
We had a major meeting the following morning in London and flights were still being cancelled as a result so we then had to complete this by phone etc. It was not what we wanted as it was more important than that. The cost of travel alone ( flights can be reimbursed or rebooked) not trains hotels etc.
They should have been given jail terms and very lengthy ones. Meanwhile as LJ points out I shall be virtually strip searched when next I try to simply catch a flight going about my normal business.
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
Tough for Hillary to win without Colorado.
I guess it could come down to North Carolina.
If she doesn't win Colorado, it's most unlikely she can win North Carolina.
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
Tough for Hillary to win without Colorado.
I guess it could come down to North Carolina.
Emerson is the only recent poll showing her trailing in Colorado and as you say North Carolina was tied yesterday
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
Guess which campaign just posted a statement about Birtherism.
Birtherism, creationism*, AGW denialism, and the belief in other conspiracies are all part of modern post-truth politics. They all poll well particularly with Republican voters.
Trump has got to grips with these, while Clinton is running the campaign of the past. Soon we will see if the loonies have taken over the asylum.
*creationism does have roots in protestant fundamentalism, but is best viewed as a prototype conspiracy theory, with the Liberal MSM trying to force a belief in evolution on the folk of America. The making the evidence fit the theory and disregarding of contrary evidence has a lot in common too.
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
Tough for Hillary to win without Colorado.
I guess it could come down to North Carolina.
If she doesn't win Colorado then Nevada is surely in play as well. Trump is also going to to better than the polls suggest in PA, MI and MN. Enough to flip at least one of those, Clinton needs to get cracking in Florida, Colorado and run defence in Nevada.
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
Do they? I see the LibDems up in 3 seats, down in 2. There is one outstanding result and one encouraging one, the others are meh.
Morning all. Catching up on Question Time, what an absolute shambles of a programme that was!
It was the best one in ages. Campbell vs McDonnell in particular illustrating contrasting views of Labour future.
That exchange showed McDonnell for what he is. I don't say this very often but good on Anna Soubry for calling out the misogynistic behaviour aimed at some Labour MPs.
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak. Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?
Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?
The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
Whatever the link between Westminster and locals, and I accept that the Lib Dems can do better in the latter where limited resources can be better focussed, it shows that the IPSOS Mori poll yesterday where they were at 6% is pants.
The reality is probably about 10% support.
They really ought to be breathing hard down labours neck as a credible opposition.
The problem is, they don't have much interest in replacing Labour as one of the top two, they'd much rather replace the Tories. Hence the disastrous 2005 strategy for which they are still suffering.
I'd reserve judgment until we find out whether it's true that he's appointing someone from Cage as his integration advisor. Cage is a wholly malign organisation. Poor judgment from Khan, if true.
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak. Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?
Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?
The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
Whatever the link between Westminster and locals, and I accept that the Lib Dems can do better in the latter where limited resources can be better focussed, it shows that the IPSOS Mori poll yesterday where they were at 6% is pants.
The reality is probably about 10% support.
They really ought to be breathing hard down labours neck as a credible opposition.
The problem is, they don't have much interest in replacing Labour as one of the top two, they'd much rather replace the Tories. Hence the disastrous 2005 strategy for which they are still suffering.
Lib Dems stuffed themselves in the 2015 election. They attempted to distance themselves from 5 years of shared government when to all intents and purposes it had been a reasonable success. They failed to take some of the benefits because they feared the downside. This meant they were not a serious party of government and as such they paid the price and will do for the foreseeable future.
The best of luck with all that!. I am not picking up much mutual love within labour ranks right now, but you are right that there is a growing war-weariness amongst many members. Nevertheless when the election eventually comes, the MPs may have forgotten the things they have said about their leader, but I suggest that there will be others rather more eager to remind everyone.
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
Do they? I see the LibDems up in 3 seats, down in 2. There is one outstanding result and one encouraging one, the others are meh.
I think they can be allowed to be a little bit down in the seat where they nevertheless topped 60% of the vote?
Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:
"These are the UK's red lines:
1. No UK contributions to the EU budget 2. UK to control movement of people across its borders 3. UK laws to have primacy 4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings
Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."
Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB. Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
No free trade without free movement. That's how the EU works. "When you are ready to be sensible" is just inane talk.
That simply has not been how the EU has worked during the majority of its existence. We have not even had free movement in services yet. The elevation of this particular freedom into some form of holy catechism while ignoring the way the Commission and other EU states have done nothing to push for free movement of services is one reason why Britain and the EU are in the position they are in. Is the EU going to learn nothing from the concerns expressed by people in Europe - not just Britain?
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
The best of luck with all that!. I am not picking up much mutual love within labour ranks right now, but you are right that there is a growing war-weariness amongst many members. Nevertheless when the election eventually comes, the MPs may have forgotten the things they have said about their leader, but I suggest that there will be others rather more eager to remind everyone.
The least of our problems (and I don't deny problems) will be "your candidate said X four years ago". The answer to that is "Whatever, that was then. Right now, I'm focusing on the needs of (constituency)". Voters can't be bothered with he-said-X-then-now-he-says-Y stuff.
By the way, there's an EU-minus-GB informal summit today. Useful summary:
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
I doubt Brexit is done and dusted by 2019.. More like just started...
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
Good article. Not sure about advisory shadow cabinet elections though- if JC end up picking someone else then won't that jst be another cause of tension and angle for media attacks?
There does need to be some kind of accommodation though. Perhaps a smaller sub cabinet of senior PLP - almost like th coalition quad?
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
Good article. Not sure about advisory shadow cabinet elections though- if JC end up picking someone else then won't that jst be another cause of tension and angle for media attacks?
There does need to be some kind of accommodation though. Perhaps a smaller sub cabinet of senior PLP - almost like th coalition quad?
Are they even going to have enough candidates to need an election?
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
George Osborne will never be party leader or PM. - Still doubt he aspires to either.
< The least of our problems (and I don't deny problems) will be "your candidate said X four years ago". The answer to that is "Whatever, that was then. Right now, I'm focusing on the needs of (constituency)". Voters can't be bothered with he-said-X-then-now-he-says-Y stuff.
Unfortunately, the blogosphere and sites like this revel in digging back to what someone said ten years ago, spotting the difference and accusing them of hypocrisy or inconsistency. It's basically what the likes of Guido Fawkes do.
It must be wonderful to have the same unchanging opinions on all things throughout your life.
The best of luck with all that!. I am not picking up much mutual love within labour ranks right now, but you are right that there is a growing war-weariness amongst many members. Nevertheless when the election eventually comes, the MPs may have forgotten the things they have said about their leader, but I suggest that there will be others rather more eager to remind everyone.
The least of our problems (and I don't deny problems) will be "your candidate said X four years ago". The answer to that is "Whatever, that was then. Right now, I'm focusing on the needs of (constituency)". Voters can't be bothered with he-said-X-then-now-he-says-Y stuff.
By the way, there's an EU-minus-GB informal summit today. Useful summary:
You may be right that the average backwoods candidate will be able to put behind them their recent various flattering portrayals of Mr C when the election finally comes. It won't, however, be so easy for the big hitters likely to come up against the media, which will want to test their conviction that people should vote for Corbyn as next PM.
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
May is far more popular amongst Tory voters and members and voters at large than Osborne so that will not happen. If Osborne ever did replace her then there really would be mass Tory defections to UKIP and a slim chance of a Corbyn premiership
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
Tough for Hillary to win without Colorado.
I guess it could come down to North Carolina.
If she doesn't win Colorado then Nevada is surely in play as well. Trump is also going to to better than the polls suggest in PA, MI and MN. Enough to flip at least one of those, Clinton needs to get cracking in Florida, Colorado and run defence in Nevada.
Lib Dems stuffed themselves in the 2015 election. They attempted to distance themselves from 5 years of shared government when to all intents and purposes it had been a reasonable success. They failed to take some of the benefits because they feared the downside. This meant they were not a serious party of government and as such they paid the price and will do for the foreseeable future.
Well, that's just complete nonsense as I'm sure you're well aware but, as with many contributions on here, it's more designed to provoke than to constitute anything approaching a coherent argument.
The alternative to some form of distancing would have been a coupon and in effect the Liberal Democrats would have split with part going into the Conservative Party (as did the Liberal Nationals and the National Liberals) and part remaining outside.
It was explicit from the beginning it was a one-term one-off arrangement. Did the LDs do things in Coalition they didn't like ? Yes. Did the Conservatives do things in Coalition they didn't like ? Yes.
As an alternative to what was (inaccurately) portrayed as the dystopic horror of a Miliband Government propped up by the SNP, my view is many who had supported the LDs in 2010 and in Coalition felt they couldn't take the chance and so voted Conservative.
They also voted for David Cameron, the "liberal conservative". Whether they would vote for a "conservative conservative" remains to be seen..
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
Tough for Hillary to win without Colorado.
I guess it could come down to North Carolina.
If she doesn't win Colorado then Nevada is surely in play as well. Trump is also going to to better than the polls suggest in PA, MI and MN. Enough to flip at least one of those, Clinton needs to get cracking in Florida, Colorado and run defence in Nevada.
Good article. Not sure about advisory shadow cabinet elections though- if JC end up picking someone else then won't that jst be another cause of tension and angle for media attacks?
There does need to be some kind of accommodation though. Perhaps a smaller sub cabinet of senior PLP - almost like th coalition quad?
My idea was basically that the advisory would produce a list of N candidates in PLP preferred order, and Corbyn could then place any current Shadows who he especially wants to keep (McDonnell, obviously, but in general he'll want to reward loyalty) and if he then has 10 places to fill he tops up with the first 10 from the PLP advisory. The remainder can be offered Shadow slots below Shadow Cabinet rank.
As EiT notes, it won't work if there aren't many people who want to do it. But my understanding is that the refusenik camp is now relatively small.
Can we have a George Osborne next PM thread please?
@DPJHodges: Amazing interview from George Osborne, newly appointed leader of the opposition.
@ShippersUnbound: Osborne: "I don't want to write my memoirs because I don't know how the story ends." Translation: "I'm 45, the PM is 59. Capiche?"
He should just ask someone. Anyone. I think most would be able to give him a pretty good idea of how the story ends/has ended. The man is nothing short of delusional.
< The least of our problems (and I don't deny problems) will be "your candidate said X four years ago". The answer to that is "Whatever, that was then. Right now, I'm focusing on the needs of (constituency)". Voters can't be bothered with he-said-X-then-now-he-says-Y stuff.
Unfortunately, the blogosphere and sites like this revel in digging back to what someone said ten years ago, spotting the difference and accusing them of hypocrisy or inconsistency. It's basically what the likes of Guido Fawkes do.
It must be wonderful to have the same unchanging opinions on all things throughout your life.
I always liked the bland reply by Jens Otto Krag (former Danish PM) who was challenged over a change in what he'd previously said. "We have a policy until we have a new one, what's unusual about that?"
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
May is far more popular amongst Tory voters and members and voters at large than Osborne so that will not happen. If Osborne ever did replace her then there really would be mass Tory defections to UKIP and a slim chance of a Corbyn premiership
Agreed. Osborne was regarded as a Leader by just 2% of the voters. A rating so bad it probably affected the REMAIN vote. I also recall a poll placing Osborne's approval rating close to the low level of Corbyn at that time.
Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.
Pot calling kettle etc.
John McDonnell tells the truth to Mr A. Campbell - that Mr A. Campbell is more responsible than any other individual for the modern day widespread mistrust of Politicians.
Good article. Not sure about advisory shadow cabinet elections though- if JC end up picking someone else then won't that jst be another cause of tension and angle for media attacks?
There does need to be some kind of accommodation though. Perhaps a smaller sub cabinet of senior PLP - almost like th coalition quad?
So Nick's advice to the PLP is to lie to people about having confidence in Corbyn and give up any hope of getting a credible leader in the next four years and in return they get Advisory Shadow Cabinet elections and the privilege of listening to Corbyn and McDonnell talk about a range of subjects at PMQs
Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.
Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.
Gulp.
I still think Hillary will sneek it, even now she has a narrow RCP lead, though the debates could be key
Tough for Hillary to win without Colorado.
I guess it could come down to North Carolina.
If she doesn't win Colorado then Nevada is surely in play as well. Trump is also going to to better than the polls suggest in PA, MI and MN. Enough to flip at least one of those, Clinton needs to get cracking in Florida, Colorado and run defence in Nevada.
Even Kerry won PA, MI and MN
Kerry was a better candidate.
Kerry trailed by more than Hillary does at this stage, he was more like Dukakis, Hillary is more like Nixon
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
May is far more popular amongst Tory voters and members and voters at large than Osborne so that will not happen. If Osborne ever did replace her then there really would be mass Tory defections to UKIP and a slim chance of a Corbyn premiership
Osborne probably realises being Chancellor was the peak of his political career, I think you are more likely to see him heading an international institution or making some money than returning to frontrank UK politics
Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.
Pot calling kettle etc.
John McDonnell tells the truth to Mr A. Campbell - that Mr A. Campbell is more responsible than any other individual for the modern day widespread mistrust of Politicians.
Never thought I agree with anything John McDonnell said, but that comment is spot on.
< The least of our problems (and I don't deny problems) will be "your candidate said X four years ago". The answer to that is "Whatever, that was then. Right now, I'm focusing on the needs of (constituency)". Voters can't be bothered with he-said-X-then-now-he-says-Y stuff.
Unfortunately, the blogosphere and sites like this revel in digging back to what someone said ten years ago, spotting the difference and accusing them of hypocrisy or inconsistency. It's basically what the likes of Guido Fawkes do.
It must be wonderful to have the same unchanging opinions on all things throughout your life.
I always liked the bland reply by Jens Otto Krag (former Danish PM) who was challenged over a change in what he'd previously said. "We have a policy until we have a new one, what's unusual about that?"
I think your article is wishful thinking. Opinions are entrenched. At best they might go underground, but nobody who believed that Corbyn is wrong-headed and ineffective has had their mind changed by this campaign.
Good article. Not sure about advisory shadow cabinet elections though- if JC end up picking someone else then won't that jst be another cause of tension and angle for media attacks?
There does need to be some kind of accommodation though. Perhaps a smaller sub cabinet of senior PLP - almost like th coalition quad?
So Nick's advice to the PLP is to lie to people about having confidence in Corbyn and give up any hope of getting a credible leader in the next four years and in return they get Advisory Shadow Cabinet elections and the privilege of listening to Corbyn and McDonnell talk about a range of subjects at PMQs
Do you have a better suggestion? I mean, I'd be all for a breakaway party and breaking the mold of British politics and everything but under FPTP it's hard to see that leading anywhere nice.
The problem with Jezza is that he still thinks the same as he did four years or forty years ago. As Mr Stodge says, it must be nice to have the same opinions all your life. In Jezza, you have the perfect specimen. As far as he's concerned, it up to other to change their minds as he never will.
Why expect his acolytes to revise their opinions?
This isn't the rough and tumble of politics. This is visceral and meant.
That's why these daft T-shirts ... I've never kissed a Tory are so silly ... what crap! Real life is far more important than politics. But not to the fanatics. Jezza, we're talking about you.
@PippaCrerar: David Miliband, a friend of Hillary Clinton & tipped for White House envoy role if she wins, tells me her health is now "top of the form"
Or Osborne, this is how it could happen. 2019 Brexit is done and dusted. We've left the EU and have a reasonable trading agreement with the EU and fair restrictions on free movement. Theresa truly is Brown in kitten heels and has been polling badly against Corbyn. The Tories now see it is safe to put the winning Cameroons back in charge because Brexit is complete, Osborne deposes her and beats Corbyn in 2020 with the backing of Gove on a reforming agenda.
May is far more popular amongst Tory voters and members and voters at large than Osborne so that will not happen. If Osborne ever did replace her then there really would be mass Tory defections to UKIP and a slim chance of a Corbyn premiership
Agreed. Osborne was regarded as a Leader by just 2% of the voters. A rating so bad it probably affected the REMAIN vote. I also recall a poll placing Osborne's approval rating close to the low level of Corbyn at that time.
Yes his rating was certainly on a par with Corbyn's in the polls, he may even have had higher unfavourables in a few. He was more a Mandelson, a tactician but not a leader
The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak. Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?
Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?
The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
In local byelections, sure.
By the same token, Labour and the Tories are on the way down. Witney will be an interesting test of where the parties now stand.
Witney 2001 (Cameron's first election):
Con 45.0, Lab 28.8, LD 20.3, Grn 2.2, Ind 2.0, UKIP 1.6
Now, the Tories are stronger now than in 2001 but in government at a byelection rather than opposition. So my first guess at a par result would be Con 45, Lab 21, LD 17. My instinct is that it will end up closer than that.
BTW, a good article but a little Panglossian. If you're not a fervent Jezzarite, you're a Tory. A divorced couple may try to act nicely in public, but it fools no one. And splits are the currency of media speculation.
Even T-shirts proclaiming your love for each other won't work.
Good article. Not sure about advisory shadow cabinet elections though- if JC end up picking someone else then won't that jst be another cause of tension and angle for media attacks?
There does need to be some kind of accommodation though. Perhaps a smaller sub cabinet of senior PLP - almost like th coalition quad?
My idea was basically that the advisory would produce a list of N candidates in PLP preferred order, and Corbyn could then place any current Shadows who he especially wants to keep (McDonnell, obviously, but in general he'll want to reward loyalty) and if he then has 10 places to fill he tops up with the first 10 from the PLP advisory. The remainder can be offered Shadow slots below Shadow Cabinet rank.
As EiT notes, it won't work if there aren't many people who want to do it. But my understanding is that the refusenik camp is now relatively small.
Would have thought enough would be interested. Even if you think Corbyn is doomed... Shadow cabinet experience is surely useful and gives a higher profile for future roles.
Should there be a shadow cabinet position for Brexit watch? That might be a way of getting some of the Blairites involved and focus their criticism on Tories.
I think your article is wishful thinking. Opinions are entrenched. At best they might go underground, but nobody who believed that Corbyn is wrong-headed and ineffective has had their mind changed by this campaign.
The article doesn't actually propose that anyone changes their minds. It suggests a way for people with different views to live together. As EiT observes, there isn't actually a viable alternative under FPTP.
In practice, as one of Corbyn's critics under the line suggests, there would be a challenge in 2019 if we were still doing badly. At that point, Corbyn's critics could say he'd been given a fair chance and it hadn't worked. At present, we could be led by the genetic merge of Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa (no not that Theresa) and we'd still be well behind, because we spend all our time shooting each other.
I think your article is wishful thinking. Opinions are entrenched. At best they might go underground, but nobody who believed that Corbyn is wrong-headed and ineffective has had their mind changed by this campaign.
The article doesn't actually propose that anyone changes their minds. It suggests a way for people with different views to live together. As EiT observes, there isn't actually a viable alternative under FPTP.
In practice, as one of Corbyn's critics under the line suggests, there would be a challenge in 2019 if we were still doing badly. At that point, Corbyn's critics could say he'd been given a fair chance and it hadn't worked. At present, we could be led by the genetic merge of Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa (no not that Theresa) and we'd still be well behind, because we spend all our time shooting each other.
If we were led by such a person, we would not be shooting each other. It's precisely because we're led by Jeremy Corbyn that we're shooting each other.
So here's a genuine question. If a voter asks me "Do you have confidence in Jeremy Corbyn?", what should I say?
To be honest, I don’t see why Jeremy Corbyn (assuming he wins) should put up with any more disloyalty.
If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).
If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.
People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.
Comments
We had a major meeting the following morning in London and flights were still being cancelled as a result so we then had to complete this by phone etc. It was not what we wanted as it was more important than that. The cost of travel alone ( flights can be reimbursed or rebooked) not trains hotels etc.
They should have been given jail terms and very lengthy ones. Meanwhile as LJ points out I shall be virtually strip searched when next I try to simply catch a flight going about my normal business.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3792121/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Privileged-eco-toffs-soft-headed-judge-insult-justice.html
If UKIP go for Broughton he will find it tougher, but if James leads UKIP, Corbyn holds on in Labour and May is like a low rent Maggie without the charm, then I can see Farron doing well.
People like Corbyn because of his unspun nature, but Farron has this too and indeed a far more effective record in opposing military adventures, without the IRA baggage of Corbyn/McDonnell.
I am optomistic for the future, though the conference will be telling, particularly the Euro-debate.
Edit: but it looks the judge sympathised with them
Capable Leader +44
Good in Crisis: +34
Sound Judgement: +26
Understands Problems Facing Britain: +17
Patriotic: +26
I guess it could come down to North Carolina.
Trump has got to grips with these, while Clinton is running the campaign of the past. Soon we will see if the loonies have taken over the asylum.
*creationism does have roots in protestant fundamentalism, but is best viewed as a prototype conspiracy theory, with the Liberal MSM trying to force a belief in evolution on the folk of America. The making the evidence fit the theory and disregarding of contrary evidence has a lot in common too.
Train derailment near Watford Junction
No injuries reported
EDIT result of landslide due rain apparently
http://labourlist.org/
@DPJHodges: Amazing interview from George Osborne, newly appointed leader of the opposition.
@ShippersUnbound: Osborne: "I don't want to write my memoirs because I don't know how the story ends." Translation: "I'm 45, the PM is 59. Capiche?"
Mind you, he could just be the next David Miliband....
By the way, there's an EU-minus-GB informal summit today. Useful summary:
http://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/live-eu-begins-to-talk-life-after-uk-in-bratislava/
There does need to be some kind of accommodation though.
Perhaps a smaller sub cabinet of senior PLP - almost like th coalition quad?
It must be wonderful to have the same unchanging opinions on all things throughout your life.
Train involved 6.19 service Milton Keynes to Euston. No reports of injuries which given two trains involved hopefully everyone got lucky today.
The alternative to some form of distancing would have been a coupon and in effect the Liberal Democrats would have split with part going into the Conservative Party (as did the Liberal Nationals and the National Liberals) and part remaining outside.
It was explicit from the beginning it was a one-term one-off arrangement. Did the LDs do things in Coalition they didn't like ? Yes. Did the Conservatives do things in Coalition they didn't like ? Yes.
As an alternative to what was (inaccurately) portrayed as the dystopic horror of a Miliband Government propped up by the SNP, my view is many who had supported the LDs in 2010 and in Coalition felt they couldn't take the chance and so voted Conservative.
They also voted for David Cameron, the "liberal conservative". Whether they would vote for a "conservative conservative" remains to be seen..
As EiT notes, it won't work if there aren't many people who want to do it. But my understanding is that the refusenik camp is now relatively small.
"your candidate said X four years ago".
The problem with Jezza is that he still thinks the same as he did four years or forty years ago. As Mr Stodge says, it must be nice to have the same opinions all your life. In Jezza, you have the perfect specimen. As far as he's concerned, it up to other to change their minds as he never will.
Why expect his acolytes to revise their opinions?
This isn't the rough and tumble of politics. This is visceral and meant.
That's why these daft T-shirts ... I've never kissed a Tory are so silly ... what crap! Real life is far more important than politics. But not to the fanatics. Jezza, we're talking about you.
Con 45.0, Lab 28.8, LD 20.3, Grn 2.2, Ind 2.0, UKIP 1.6
Now, the Tories are stronger now than in 2001 but in government at a byelection rather than opposition. So my first guess at a par result would be Con 45, Lab 21, LD 17. My instinct is that it will end up closer than that.
BTW, a good article but a little Panglossian. If you're not a fervent Jezzarite, you're a Tory. A divorced couple may try to act nicely in public, but it fools no one. And splits are the currency of media speculation.
Even T-shirts proclaiming your love for each other won't work.
Should there be a shadow cabinet position for Brexit watch? That might be a way of getting some of the Blairites involved and focus their criticism on Tories.
In practice, as one of Corbyn's critics under the line suggests, there would be a challenge in 2019 if we were still doing badly. At that point, Corbyn's critics could say he'd been given a fair chance and it hadn't worked. At present, we could be led by the genetic merge of Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa (no not that Theresa) and we'd still be well behind, because we spend all our time shooting each other.
So here's a genuine question. If a voter asks me "Do you have confidence in Jeremy Corbyn?", what should I say?
Turkey/EU migrant deal on verge of collapse, arrivals in Greece now up to 1000 per day. Europe's border is breached in Greece and Italy.
And then people wonder why the next pope thinks that Muslims are invading Europe.
If I was leading a team, and my leadership had been twice confirmed, I would throw out people who said things like “I will knife Corbyn in the front” (Jess Philips).
If Jeremy wins twice, then he has earned the right to be leader, and earned the right for support from the PLP.
People openly fomenting disloyalty should be tossed out of the team.