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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With polls tightening & the betting moves to Trump tonight’

135

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  • MP_SE said:

    Anna Soubry tells John McDonnell he's a nasty piece of work.

    Pot kettle black
    She is one of the very worst politicians in Britain today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Calgie
    Anna Soubry, John Mcdonnell AND Alastair Campbell on one panel? Hope someone's got fire extinguishers ready... https://t.co/oCklZMHs5M

    Indeed, though as Letts said also 4 Remainers and only 1 Brexiteer in a country that has just voted for Brexit!
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    Given that your approach will make the UK a poorer place and therefore directly impact the NHS and the benefits people receive I expect all your red lines will be ignored. Its called realpolitik.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paul Mason at it again

    "Deselect asap" https://t.co/xchYzsMcDs
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Paul Mason at it again

    "Deselect asap" https://t.co/xchYzsMcDs

    If he gets Milne job its going to be a right old hoot.
  • HYUFD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Calgie
    Anna Soubry, John Mcdonnell AND Alastair Campbell on one panel? Hope someone's got fire extinguishers ready... https://t.co/oCklZMHs5M

    Indeed, though as Letts said also 4 Remainers and only 1 Brexiteer in a country that has just voted for Brexit!
    BBC says got it about right....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Ally_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    Given that your approach will make the UK a poorer place and therefore directly impact the NHS and the benefits people receive I expect all your red lines will be ignored. Its called realpolitik.
    Free trade would make the Uk a poorer place? Wow, whats all the fuss about then?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    Ally_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    Given that your approach will make the UK a poorer place and therefore directly impact the NHS and the benefits people receive I expect all your red lines will be ignored. Its called realpolitik.
    Eh? I haven't suggested any red lines
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited September 2016
    So the LibDems actually won in NE Derbyshire despite the link posted earlier saying they had no chance?

    LD +38% Lab -32% Con -15%
  • Bad Al on TV, manages to make McMao look reasonable.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This solves the mystery of what Charles said before:

    https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/776554014112641028
  • @Philip_Thompson That's fine Philip. Everyone gets to decide for themselves which way they are going to vote, why, what they mean by the vote, which question they think they are answering and what their primary aim is. I was questioning whether an economic liberal's interests could be further by the victory of the Leave Campaign. Clearly they could be furthered by Brexit depending on what Brexit turns out to be. I'm making a tactical voting critique. If you believe in economic liberalism does helping that particular Leave Campaign win further your aims. It's too early to tell but it seems far from obvious that the answer is Yes.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Farage clearly wants to stay on the European stage. Brexit risks destroying his platform in Brussels.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/ukip-plans-invasion-of-the-continent-nigel-farage-arron-banks-right-wing-populism/

    Farage, who will step down as leader of UKIP at the party’s yearly conference later this week, is eyeing a future role as “roving ambassador,” according to Banks. “To go to places like Denmark and France and say: ‘It’s possible, you can do it as well.’ "

    I do not recall a proper Kipper leader thread. Surely the end of Farage is worth noting, and punting on.

    I am tidily all green on this one, having backed the field against Woolfe early on, but will be in clover if Broughton wins.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    IanB2 said:

    So the LibDems actually won in NE Derbyshire despite the link posted earlier saying they had no chance?

    LD +38% Lab -32% Con -15%

    Winning here :-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716

    HYUFD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Calgie
    Anna Soubry, John Mcdonnell AND Alastair Campbell on one panel? Hope someone's got fire extinguishers ready... https://t.co/oCklZMHs5M

    Indeed, though as Letts said also 4 Remainers and only 1 Brexiteer in a country that has just voted for Brexit!
    BBC says got it about right....
    For the BBC canteen maybe, though maybe a bit heavy on the Leavers! Goodnight
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    IanB2 said:

    So the LibDems actually won in NE Derbyshire despite the link posted earlier saying they had no chance?

    LD +38% Lab -32% Con -15%

    Can you find the link ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MTimT said:

    John_M said:

    I'm sure that whatever happens I'll be disappointed.

    Is that sentence an oxymoron? ;)
    I used to negotiate for a living :).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the LibDems actually won in NE Derbyshire despite the link posted earlier saying they had no chance?

    LD +38% Lab -32% Con -15%

    Can you find the link ?
    http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-15-9-16
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the LibDems actually won in NE Derbyshire despite the link posted earlier saying they had no chance?

    LD +38% Lab -32% Con -15%

    Can you find the link ?
    "Even in the dubious circumstances of this by-election, Labour should have little trouble holding this seat"...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2016

    @Philip_Thompson That's fine Philip. Everyone gets to decide for themselves which way they are going to vote, why, what they mean by the vote, which question they think they are answering and what their primary aim is. I was questioning whether an economic liberal's interests could be further by the victory of the Leave Campaign. Clearly they could be furthered by Brexit depending on what Brexit turns out to be. I'm making a tactical voting critique. If you believe in economic liberalism does helping that particular Leave Campaign win further your aims. It's too early to tell but it seems far from obvious that the answer is Yes.

    Yes because the campaigns will melt away like the frost in spring while the referendum decision we will live with for forty years probably so vote for what you believe in and stuff everything else, that's tomorrow's battle
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,450
    I get the feeling Ali Campbell and Jonny Mac don't really get along?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Jamie Oliver rumoured for GBBO.

    Did Channel 4 learn nothing from Top Gear ?

    Might go down well with Sainsburys shoppers in Essex, that's about it though.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jamie Oliver rumoured for GBBO.

    Did Channel 4 learn nothing from Top Gear ?

    Might go down well with Sainsburys shoppers in Essex, that's about it though.

    Him and Jimmy the Farmer to host?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Bishops castle shrops LibD 60% Con 30% Lab 7% grn 3%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    I get the feeling Ali Campbell and Jonnie Mac Walker don't really get along?

    Fixed for you.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's a revolt against a particular form of liberalism, one that sees internationalism and the free movement of people and capital as the way forward, rather than a revolt against liberalism more generally.
    I see free movement of capital, goods and services as totally different to free movement of people.

    Why so many others do not, baffles me.
    However many Trump and Brexit backers do not. Working class voters in Ohio and the Black Country would be quite happy to have tariffs on imports from Mexico and China (indeed Farage made the argument the EU prevented restrictions being made on cheap Chinese goods)
    RCS is right. The probability of an international trade war brought on by Trumpism and Brexitism is quite high.
    It's tricky. It's pretty clear that Trump will destroy America (Bush was an economic nightmare, Trump will be considerably worse and congress is too inept to stop him) and that can be very good for the UK. Unfortunately he is likely to take the world with him, which most definitely isn't. Odds on, because of that, that some agent, international or domestic, would 'remove' him if he somehow got elected.
  • IanB2 said:

    Bishops castle shrops LibD 60% Con 30% Lab 7% grn 3%

    Bishops Castle is possibly the most LibDem place in Britain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    IanB2 said:

    Bishops castle shrops LibD 60% Con 30% Lab 7% grn 3%

    Bishops Castle is possibly the most LibDem place in Britain.
    Tupton isn't though :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    Labour's performance tonight:

    East Herts -8.9%
    Newcastle -20.0%
    NE Derbyshire -32.4%
    Carlisle -3.4%
    Shropshire — no candidate last time, this time they polled 6.7% in third place.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    Hillary press thing - flat as a pancake

    https://youtu.be/Mi0HaFHEY-I
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    edited September 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Tupton isn't though :)

    Haha, true. Having visited both several times (admittedly North Wingfield rather than Tupton itself) I'm afraid I'm firmly plumping for Bishops Castle.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Hillary press thing - flat as a pancake

    I think she's deliberately speaking softly to avoid setting off her cough.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    When do we get the result of the mayor of Hackney election?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    SeanT said:

    Hello from Bolivia.

    Today I learned that the Bolivian establishment, aka the president, have decided to hold a second referendum on presidential terms and whatnot, because they didn't like the result of the first referendum.

    That's what REMAINERS want Britain to be: the North Atlantic version of Bolivia, where the public are asked, then overruled.

    Do we get the hot girls and the cocaine too?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    And I'd add free movement of those with job offers. But for your two points and mine on movement of people, I'd hold those back until the EU stated that they were prepared to talk, given our red lines.

    Out of interest, on your 'no use of product standards as an NTB, would you say that that would bar the UK from introducing tougher standards than the EU for safety or environmental reasons where those proposed standards are properly backed up by empirical evidence?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Only one in three people thinks that the government is right to increase the number of grammar schools and select more pupils by academic ability, according to a poll for The Times.

    YouGov found voters in England gave a lukewarm reception to the prime minister’s domestic policy, which was backed by 34 per cent.

    Some 25 per cent urged the reverse, calling on the government to close all grammars. A further 20 per cent said that the existing system, with 164 grammar schools, should be kept as it is. The poll reveals that Mrs May’s initial efforts to win over the country with her plans do not seem to have worked. Support for grammars and academic selection was 38 per cent in early August, before the plans were set out.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/most-voters-reject-grammar-school-expansion-jnw825xk9
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Hmm I reckon Hillary has Parkinsons.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Very Brexit

    "Donald Trump is "really proud" that his crusade against the mainstream media finally paid off this week in the form of a poll that found only 32 percent of Americans trust the press.

    "The media has openly been dishonest and I look at that poll and I said, 'wow,' because every speech I talk about it," the Republican presidential nominee told radio host Fred Dickers on Thursday.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2601929/
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Can anyone explain what geo filters are?

    Trump for 2016
    First update from our campaign for yesterday! #Trump2016

    https://t.co/SXeGO3p90P https://t.co/czFeG7TnMs
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Heavy rain in London tomorrow. Hope the tube stations don't get flooded again.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paralympics GB
    107 medals and second on the table, fantastic from our athletes on Day 8. They're doing something very special here. https://t.co/VPFqS9Chv5
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm I reckon Hillary has Parkinsons.

    Whatever is wrong - she's a robot at public appearances. I watched her excuse for a press conf twice and she's no human emotion at all. A teleprompter would have more.

    I thought she sounded like a simultaneous translation - if she was being told what to say via an ear bud, I'd believe it. Very weird.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    SeanT said:

    I think I might have misjudged Sadiq Khan. And I am sorry for that. He would make an excellent Labour leader if Labour weren't completely fucked.

    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/776569023224016896

    It's easy to accept to defeat when you'll never feel the loss personally.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Your sarcasm detector is broken
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Very Brexit

    "Donald Trump is "really proud" that his crusade against the mainstream media finally paid off this week in the form of a poll that found only 32 percent of Americans trust the press.

    "The media has openly been dishonest and I look at that poll and I said, 'wow,' because every speech I talk about it," the Republican presidential nominee told radio host Fred Dickers on Thursday.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2601929/

    says the Donald whose career in the mainstream media has been going reasonably well these past few years.

    as for the D accusing people of being dishonest..

    well, we really are through into the looking glass world

  • PlatoSaid said:

    Your sarcasm detector is broken
    dammit. it's early!
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Your sarcasm detector is broken
    dammit. it's early!
    think my geofilter might be bust
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    PlatoSaid said:

    Can anyone explain what geo filters are?

    Trump for 2016
    First update from our campaign for yesterday! #Trump2016

    https://t.co/SXeGO3p90P https://t.co/czFeG7TnMs

    One of the coolest features of Snapchat is their use of "Geofilters" when sending a "snap". A Geofilter is a unique logo or text that the user can apply to the photo via their GPS signal being in an area with the filter available

    Source: your link ;)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Charles said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Can anyone explain what geo filters are?

    Trump for 2016
    First update from our campaign for yesterday! #Trump2016

    https://t.co/SXeGO3p90P https://t.co/czFeG7TnMs

    One of the coolest features of Snapchat is their use of "Geofilters" when sending a "snap". A Geofilter is a unique logo or text that the user can apply to the photo via their GPS signal being in an area with the filter available

    Source: your link ;)
    Ha! I gave in after too many pop up ads
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    What will stop first, the Labour leadership election or this bloody thunderstorm?!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Washington Examiner
    NEW: Clinton postpones answering court ordered email questions due to "campaign business" https://t.co/E9XcJRFdxK https://t.co/y7GfJKpyg4
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    No free trade without free movement. That's how the EU works. "When you are ready to be sensible" is just inane talk.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    And I'd add free movement of those with job offers. But for your two points and mine on movement of people, I'd hold those back until the EU stated that they were prepared to talk, given our red lines.

    Out of interest, on your 'no use of product standards as an NTB, would you say that that would bar the UK from introducing tougher standards than the EU for safety or environmental reasons where those proposed standards are properly backed up by empirical evidence?
    Well, that's certainly the case with NAFTA and the TPP, you're specifically prohibited from using trading standards in that way.

    Pretty much all free trade agreements are denuding of sovereignty in this way, because they seek to prevent governments from protecting local industries through regulation. Indeed, the whole purpose of ISDS tribunals is to allow firms who feel they've been disadvantaged through the regulatory process to get redress.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    Dadge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    No free trade without free movement. That's how the EU works. "When you are ready to be sensible" is just inane talk.
    No; it's no membership of the single market without free movement of people. You can have - and the EU has about 30 - free trade agreements without free movement of people.

    There are advantages to being in the single market: it drastically cuts down on customs processing, for example, and simplifies the process of selling cross border (and for that matter, allows people to offer things like financials services products from another country). Whether those advantages are sufficient to justify allowing (a degree of) freedom of movement is another matter altogether.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    What will stop first, the Labour leadership election or this bloody thunderstorm?!

    Where are you (roughly)?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    And I'd add free movement of those with job offers. But for your two points and mine on movement of people, I'd hold those back until the EU stated that they were prepared to talk, given our red lines.

    Out of interest, on your 'no use of product standards as an NTB, would you say that that would bar the UK from introducing tougher standards than the EU for safety or environmental reasons where those proposed standards are properly backed up by empirical evidence?
    Well, that's certainly the case with NAFTA and the TPP, you're specifically prohibited from using trading standards in that way.

    Pretty much all free trade agreements are denuding of sovereignty in this way, because they seek to prevent governments from protecting local industries through regulation. Indeed, the whole purpose of ISDS tribunals is to allow firms who feel they've been disadvantaged through the regulatory process to get redress.
    So, how does NAFTA manage it if they have no inter-governmental process of setting environmental or safety standards? Is it all done through legal challenge?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Dadge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    No free trade without free movement. That's how the EU works. "When you are ready to be sensible" is just inane talk.
    It may be how the EU works, but regardless of the existence of the EU, free trade promotes economic growth globally (albeit with local winners and losers). That is why the world in general has moved steadily towards freer trade since WWII. Regardless of the terms of the political divorce of Brexit, it still makes economic sense for both sides, not just the UK, for there to be a degree of free trade.

    The EU has a (short-term) political, not economic, reason for wanting Brexit to be painful for the UK. If they are determined to emphasize that in Brexit negotiations rather than focus on an optimal economic agreement based on mutual economic interests, then the UK is probably better off both politically and economically in the longer-term if we opt out of negotiations now in favour of a better negotiation process later which can focus on the mutual economic interests, rather than settle for a bad deal now - even if that means more pain in the shorter term for the UK.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    And I'd add free movement of those with job offers. But for your two points and mine on movement of people, I'd hold those back until the EU stated that they were prepared to talk, given our red lines.

    Out of interest, on your 'no use of product standards as an NTB, would you say that that would bar the UK from introducing tougher standards than the EU for safety or environmental reasons where those proposed standards are properly backed up by empirical evidence?
    Well, that's certainly the case with NAFTA and the TPP, you're specifically prohibited from using trading standards in that way.

    Pretty much all free trade agreements are denuding of sovereignty in this way, because they seek to prevent governments from protecting local industries through regulation. Indeed, the whole purpose of ISDS tribunals is to allow firms who feel they've been disadvantaged through the regulatory process to get redress.
    So how does California's vehicular emission controls fit into that?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ancient Trump, hasn't changed his message

    Rather spooky

    Trump passionately fighting for Harlem! #VoteTrump https://t.co/100zDiys4F
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    PPP
    #Latest @TPM Electoral Map
    (270 EV Needed):

    Clinton 254
    Trump 242
    Toss-up 42

    https://t.co/rgmXjpeHU7
    Via @joshtpm https://t.co/KYpS6SzZwA
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PlatoSaid said:

    PPP
    #Latest @TPM Electoral Map
    (270 EV Needed):

    Clinton 254
    Trump 242
    Toss-up 42

    https://t.co/rgmXjpeHU7
    Via @joshtpm https://t.co/KYpS6SzZwA

    I still think Clinton will win but only narrowly.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AndyJS said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PPP
    #Latest @TPM Electoral Map
    (270 EV Needed):

    Clinton 254
    Trump 242
    Toss-up 42

    https://t.co/rgmXjpeHU7
    Via @joshtpm https://t.co/KYpS6SzZwA

    I still think Clinton will win but only narrowly.
    Imagine another hanging chad election?!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVd1LuadnDk
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sinister Farce
    The Mason plan:
    (1) ignore abuse
    (2) goad abused when they react
    (3) deselect
    (4) ??????
    (5) Labour government https://t.co/OAvIBfevVb
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    David Martosko
    ProTip: Don't run to the bathroom during a @HillaryClinton press availability. It'll be over before you flush.

    Again she did a whole four questions, it's a box tick nothing more.

    As opposed to Trump who mocked the press for failing to get to his rally today, because he makes them fly on a different plane.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    MTimT said:

    Dadge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Having read again the Telegraph piece on EU officials intending to make the UK give up on Brexit by making negotiations too tough, I am more and more convinced that our line should be:

    "These are the UK's red lines:

    1. No UK contributions to the EU budget
    2. UK to control movement of people across its borders
    3. UK laws to have primacy
    4. UK not subject to ECJ rulings

    Now, EU, given these red lines, what are you prepared to offer us. If nothing, then let's just get it over and done with and to the WTO rules. When you are ready to be sensible, let us know."

    Free trade in goods; no use of product standards as an NTB.
    Free trade in services, but no financial passporting.
    No free trade without free movement. That's how the EU works. "When you are ready to be sensible" is just inane talk.
    It may be how the EU works, but regardless of the existence of the EU, free trade promotes economic growth globally (albeit with local winners and losers). That is why the world in general has moved steadily towards freer trade since WWII. Regardless of the terms of the political divorce of Brexit, it still makes economic sense for both sides, not just the UK, for there to be a degree of free trade.

    The EU has a (short-term) political, not economic, reason for wanting Brexit to be painful for the UK. If they are determined to emphasize that in Brexit negotiations rather than focus on an optimal economic agreement based on mutual economic interests, then the UK is probably better off both politically and economically in the longer-term if we opt out of negotiations now in favour of a better negotiation process later which can focus on the mutual economic interests, rather than settle for a bad deal now - even if that means more pain in the shorter term for the UK.
    This is all beginning to look somewhat concerning. And reminiscent of some sort of Cold War style arms race where everyone can see that reducing arsenals is the mutually sensible thing to do but the actual outcome is escalation for want of anyone willing to take the first step.
  • Only one in three people thinks that the government is right to increase the number of grammar schools and select more pupils by academic ability, according to a poll for The Times.

    YouGov found voters in England gave a lukewarm reception to the prime minister’s domestic policy, which was backed by 34 per cent.

    Some 25 per cent urged the reverse, calling on the government to close all grammars. A further 20 per cent said that the existing system, with 164 grammar schools, should be kept as it is. The poll reveals that Mrs May’s initial efforts to win over the country with her plans do not seem to have worked. Support for grammars and academic selection was 38 per cent in early August, before the plans were set out.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/most-voters-reject-grammar-school-expansion-jnw825xk9
  • Turns out I'm in tune with the English public when it comes to Grammar schools.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 942
    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Only one in three people thinks that the government is right to increase the number of grammar schools and select more pupils by academic ability, according to a poll for The Times.

    YouGov found voters in England gave a lukewarm reception to the prime minister’s domestic policy, which was backed by 34 per cent.

    Some 25 per cent urged the reverse, calling on the government to close all grammars. A further 20 per cent said that the existing system, with 164 grammar schools, should be kept as it is. The poll reveals that Mrs May’s initial efforts to win over the country with her plans do not seem to have worked. Support for grammars and academic selection was 38 per cent in early August, before the plans were set out.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/most-voters-reject-grammar-school-expansion-jnw825xk9

    Presumably 21% are not bothered.

    May seems to be going for the 35% strategy.
  • Great for LibDems, bad for Labour, poor or mixed for everybody else.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Tupton (North East Derbyshire) result:
    LDEM: 38.3% (+38.3)
    LAB: 34.7% (-32.4)
    CON: 17.5% (-15.4)
    UKIP: 8.9% (+8.9)
    BPP: 0.7% (+0.7)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat GAIN Tupton (North East Derbyshire) from Labour.


    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Bishop's Castle (Shropshire) result:
    LDEM: 60.5% (-1.5)
    CON: 30.2% (-0.5)
    LAB: 6.7% (+6.7)
    GRN: 2.6% (-4.7)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 7h7 hours ago
    Liberal Democrat HOLD Bishop's Castle (Shropshire).


    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Castle (Carlisle) result:
    LAB: 46.5% (+9.2)
    CON: 26.7% (+7.7)
    UKIP: 12.5% (-10.4)
    LDEM: 10.3% (-0.6)
    GRN: 4.0% (-3.5)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Labour HOLD Castle (Carlisle).


    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Blakelaw (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
    LAB: 43.2% (-20.0)
    LDEM: 28.1% (+19.0)
    UKIP: 19.1% (+3.0)
    CON: 5.1% (-2.4)
    GRN: 4.5% (+0.5)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Labour HOLD Blakelaw (Newcastle upon Tyne).


    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Puckeridge (East Hertfordshire) result:
    CON: 42.9% (-24.6)
    UKIP: 18.9% (+18.9)
    LDEM: 18.0% (+18.0)
    LAB: 11.0% (-8.9)
    GRN: 9.1% (-3.5)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Conservative HOLD Puckeridge (East Hertfordshire).
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Is this a first? A BBC article about the EU that is less than fawning about that institution:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37380666
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    People have been known to vote differently at local and Westminster levels.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    It is encouraging.

    Farron believes that every council seat matters, and is worth fighting for. The plan of building a number of hotspots in local government, then to fight these as parliamentary seats is a realistic one.

    If James is the new Kipper leader, it will be hard to differentiate from the Tories, except for James having better social and presentational skills to May. Policy will be much the same and it leaves a lot of space for the LDs.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Paralympics GB
    107 medals and second on the table, fantastic from our athletes on Day 8. They're doing something very special here. https://t.co/VPFqS9Chv5

    The success of the Ukraine is very impressive too, even if it baffles me.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    FPT

    Does anyone really believe Labour are on 34%?. I find it not credible.
  • theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak.

    Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    PlatoSaid said:

    Paralympics GB
    107 medals and second on the table, fantastic from our athletes on Day 8. They're doing something very special here. https://t.co/VPFqS9Chv5

    The success of the Ukraine is very impressive too, even if it baffles me.

    PlatoSaid said:

    Paralympics GB
    107 medals and second on the table, fantastic from our athletes on Day 8. They're doing something very special here. https://t.co/VPFqS9Chv5

    The success of the Ukraine is very impressive too, even if it baffles me.
    The success of the Ukraine is very impressive too, even if it baffles me.

    Russia typically goes for the same sports to excel in as the Ukraine so they were denied more medals and superior medals to everyone else in the normal olympics. With the paralympics taking a stronger stand with the outright ban, Ukraine has taken advantage.

    \Also possibly long term side effects of Chernobyl have helped them develop paralympic excellence ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2016
    On topic.
    What's the thing that America talks today about Trump ?
    His economic policy ? Nope
    His social policy ? Nope

    His hair on Jimmy Fallon:

    https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/776605776962084864
    And then we wonder why this election is tied.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MTimT said:

    theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    People have been known to vote differently at local and Westminster levels.
    Sure, but getting them to vote LD at a local level is a good place to start.

    With no national elections on the cards for 3 years or so, national polls are not terribly meaningful.
  • MTimT said:

    Is this a first? A BBC article about the EU that is less than fawning about that institution:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37380666

    Shows Tusk is a tad more sensible than the rest.

    I use the word tad decidedly.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016
    @Casino Royale

    A lot of amputees and paraplegics who were formely fit young men too, thanks to Donald's frriend Vladimir. The paralympics started for wounded soldiers.

    It is also good to see countries like Nigeria doing so well, rather than the same old cohort.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited September 2016

    FPT

    Does anyone really believe Labour are on 34%?. I find it not credible.

    No. But if you are an average non-Tory not really interested or paying much attention to politics right now and you get asked by a pollster today out of the blue, what else are you to say? There is a world of difference between giving an instinctive anti-government response to a pollster and walking deliberately to the polls to cast a knowing vote for Corbyn as PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Speedy said:

    On topic.
    What's the thing that America talks today about Trump ?
    His economic policy ? Nope
    His social policy ? Nope

    His hair on Jimmy Fallon:

    https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/776605776962084864
    And then we wonder why this election is tied.

    His hair is quite thick for someone at 70, almost certainly dyed - but Hillary's will be too, and hers is also not so thick on top (Her hair stylist has a tough job to do methinks)
  • See the doomsters were right about the floods, just as a stopped clock is eventually
  • Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    On topic.
    What's the thing that America talks today about Trump ?
    His economic policy ? Nope
    His social policy ? Nope

    His hair on Jimmy Fallon:

    https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/776605776962084864
    And then we wonder why this election is tied.

    His hair is quite thick for someone at 70, almost certainly dyed - but Hillary's will be too, and hers is also not so thick on top (Her hair stylist has a tough job to do methinks)
    Who cares?
  • theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak.

    Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
    Someone on here yesterday showed that the latest poll 'adjusted' the raw response which had LDs above UKIP to show the percentages the other way round. Maybe there is a scientific reason for this, surely it's not to make the results match expectations.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    It is encouraging.

    Farron believes that every council seat matters, and is worth fighting for. The plan of building a number of hotspots in local government, then to fight these as parliamentary seats is a realistic one.

    If James is the new Kipper leader, it will be hard to differentiate from the Tories, except for James having better social and presentational skills to May. Policy will be much the same and it leaves a lot of space for the LDs.
    Which is interesting but doesn't resolve the dilemma of what the LDs stand for at a national level - will triangulation ever return? If so, Farron is not the person who can do it.
  • theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak.

    Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
    Someone on here yesterday showed that the latest poll 'adjusted' the raw response which had LDs above UKIP to show the percentages the other way round. Maybe there is a scientific reason for this, surely it's not to make the results match expectations.
    That someone was Mark Senior.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    @Casino Royale

    A lot of amputees and paraplegics who were formely fit young men too, thanks to Donald's frriend Vladimir. The paralympics started for wounded soldiers.

    It is also good to see countries like Nigeria doing so well, rather than the same old cohort.

    Disappointing to see Saudi Arabia performing poorly given their commitment to widening the pool of locals available.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak.
    Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
    But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?

    Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?

    The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    On topic.
    What's the thing that America talks today about Trump ?
    His economic policy ? Nope
    His social policy ? Nope

    His hair on Jimmy Fallon:

    https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/776605776962084864
    And then we wonder why this election is tied.

    His hair is quite thick for someone at 70, almost certainly dyed - but Hillary's will be too, and hers is also not so thick on top (Her hair stylist has a tough job to do methinks)
    Trumps hair is befuddling because clearly so much effort goes into it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,239
    Another day of trending Trump in the US. Unless this reverses he will be ahead in the averages within the week. A possibility that might well cause that reverse of course.

    Hillary just looks unwell but the truth is she has never been a great campaigner. Trump is a natural, honed for the superficial, personality driven sound bite era in which we live. Unless he screws up irredeemably he is going to win.

    Gulp.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,239
    PClipp said:

    theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak.
    Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
    But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?

    Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?

    The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
    Whatever the link between Westminster and locals, and I accept that the Lib Dems can do better in the latter where limited resources can be better focussed, it shows that the IPSOS Mori poll yesterday where they were at 6% is pants.
  • PClipp said:

    theakes said:

    The local by elections tonight confirm the weekly trend of massive swings to the Lib Dems in many Midland and Northern Labour seats. I find it unbelievable that the national polling figures for that party are in single figures.

    There are two possibilities: either the polls are wrong again or the relationship between local byelections and parliamentary elections is weak.
    Now, I understand that you would choose the first of these. But you do seem to have overlooked that these "massive swings" are mostly in places where the LDs either didn't stand last time or stood but made no effort.
    But if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they did not stand before, Mr Quidder, is this not a sign that something unusual is happening?

    Likewise if the Lib Dems are now winning seats where they made little effort last time?

    The Lib Dems are clearly now on the way up.
    In local byelections, sure.
This discussion has been closed.