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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A staggering 54% of Corbyn supporters in the YouGov members

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  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999
    IanB2 said:

    ToryJim said:

    I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

    There's none so blind as them as won't see.

    It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

    This is well worth reading:

    https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/

    It is worth reading, thanks. The author may be to young to remember the 1980s because the article goes adrift at the end on the history (the idea that Labour was reforming in 1981 is laughable).
    [snip]
    That's true. In fact, it was precisely because they thought it was unreformable and that deselections of moderates would come about, following the Special Conference vote, that persuaded the Gang of Four to leave. As it turned out, they were wrong, though had Benn beaten Healey, many more might have defected. That victory proved that Labour was still salvable.

    But the point about the unions, the party membership and Militant is right: a determined effort from the mainstream to root out the relatively small number of dedicated militant entryists was possible. That isn't where Labour is now. The membership voted for Corbyn on an OMOV (OPOV?) basis; they look likely to do so again. The much smaller number of much bigger unions still back him, for the reasons well laid out by Joff last weekend. How does the centrist element fight back against that kind of firepower? And with whom? I'm sorry but if the best you can put forward is Angela Eagle then it's barely worth bothering.

    Still, it's a very valuable piece because it's the first time I've seen someone in the Labour movement openly consider the possibility of a split, in a positive light.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.
    I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

    Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

    One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.
    The existing Good Friday agreement gives any resident of Northern Ireland the right to Irish and thus EU citizenship. The issue will be the hard border and the survival of the common travel area. Though that will take years to pan out even if it isn't solved. I agree a reunification referendum will be avoided at all costs as even if reunification won it would only lead to violence. The longer term issue is Scotland. If they go paramilitaries will ask if rUK really has the stomach for another 30 year war or repartition. If EEA plus is the outcome of Brexit nearly all these issues go away. My sense at the moment is the Leave vote is an antithesis and we don't know what the synthesis will be yet. But we'll see.
    Any resident? How does that work in practical terms, if an English person from say, Newcastle, moved to Belfast, at what point could he become an Irish citizen?

    Or would one have to be born within he six counties?

    Anyone born in Northern Ireland qualifies for Irish citizenship. I guess you'd have to live there for as long as you'd have to live in the Republic before you could qualify that way.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,600



    They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

    You don't need a border control to control your border. Even after Brexit tourists will have the right to.come and visit anyway, what they may not have is the right to work. Companies will continue to be obliged to take a copy of proof of right to work in the UK. If someone travels from Eire to NI or GB then so be it. Treat them the same as any other tourist. That doesn't magically give right to work.
    Agreed, the current CTA works well and there's not much need to change it. The problem would be if the new relationship between the UK and EU required taxes or duties to be paid on movement of goods between the two countries, which would obviously require a customs post and a reasonable effort to restrict the number of crossing points of vehicles.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,600

    alex. said:

    JWisemann said:

    .

    Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

    He has no policies.
    He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
    He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
    He does not believe in collective responsibility.
    He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
    He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.


    Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

    He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.
    I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

    I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

    Bercow won't agree to that. If Labour MPs form some unofficial internal group, they're still part of Labour, Corbyn is still leader of Labour and as such LotO.

    Alternatively, if they leave (or are kicked out of) Labour, then SDP2 is precisely what it is.
    The idea that the rebels could be party within a party is them trying to have their cake and eat it. They either need to oust Corbyn somehow, or quit the party. The former option is looking unlikely.

    To be positive, Corbyn and friends will probably be supporting the boundary changes when they come up as it will make the job of reselection much easier ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.
    I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

    Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

    One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

    There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

    It wouldn't do any harm to reaffirm that though. It kills the believe that NI has to secede and reunify for those worried about their EU rights.

    Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.

    Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.
    My guess is that a Border Poll would show c. 70/30 to stay in the UK.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    alex. said:

    JWisemann said:

    I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

    Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

    He has no policies.
    He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
    He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
    He does not believe in collective responsibility.
    He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
    He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.


    Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

    He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.
    I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

    I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

    Tony did that when he won a landslide in 1997.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Just as an aside, if about 100 MPs split, then the new party leader becomes Leader of the Opposition, but Corbyn would occupy the place taken by the SNP.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    Has Owen Smith ever been seen in the same room as John Oliver?
    MaxPB said:

    Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    This is one instance where Remain is always the wrong choice.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Congrats.

    Just leave IMO.

    Having gone all the way through the process, your head is leaving. If you stay I would bet you end up leaving within a year. Many do. It's amazing how powerful that emotional cut (of thinking you're going to leave and trying to convince your future employers the same thing) actually is.

    There - my first Leave post!!

    Good luck.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    JWisemann said:

    I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

    There are always Black Swan events. Theresa May could be revealed to be a cannibal or child-murderer, for example. Barring something of that nature, Jeremy Corbyn can't become PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Pong said:

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    But but but..

    Theresa Villiers said this wouldn't happen.

    And anyone who pointed out the obvious constitutional implications of brexit on NI was being "highly irresponsible"

    Thanks for fucking up my country.
    Jog on. The integrity of this country does not depend on our membership of a federal continental union of only a few decades standing and the U.K. successfully existed for hundreds of years before it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Go. You don't want to work for a resentful employer.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Congrats.

    Just leave IMO.

    Having gone all the way through the process, your head is leaving. If you stay I would bet you end up leaving within a year. Many do. It's amazing how powerful that emotional cut (of thinking you're going to leave and trying to convince your future employers the same thing) actually is.

    There - my first Leave post!!

    Good luck.

    If you have decided to leave , leave,
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,261

    The Telegraph: Britain 'can still join EU military missions after Brexit' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwmMKDuyw

    Oh thank you so much!

    Did I say thank you so much? I meant f*ck off.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920

    Pong said:

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    But but but..

    Theresa Villiers said this wouldn't happen.

    And anyone who pointed out the obvious constitutional implications of brexit on NI was being "highly irresponsible"

    Thanks for fucking up my country.
    Jog on. The integrity of this country does not depend on our membership of a federal continental union of only a few decades standing and the U.K. successfully existed for hundreds of years before it.
    Successful isn't the first word that comes to mind when thinking about the last few hundred years of Ireland's position in the UK.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Unless the offer is too good to turn down (and the way you phrased it suggests it isn't), give them a chance to match the offer, at least in seniority. Remember that Switzerland is an abominably expensive place to live (when I was there 3 years ago a McDonald's meal or a greasy takeaway cost £10!) so money isn't all.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    I've been on the receiving end of junior colleagues asking me to bid against an offer. Twice we've not then back - and on both occasions it hasn't worked so i am very reluctant to do so again.

    The reason being is that once someone has made the psychological decision to leave the firm then that mindset doesn't really change. As a result they sometimes think they can play the same game again and/or their fundamental issues (which are rarely just money/status) haven't gone away.

    Additionally from the firm position you are never as fully trusted. Will your team want to share confidential information with you if they think there is a chance you will walk out of the door.

    The key questions are (1) are you & your girlfriend really ready to leave London (Geneva is veeeeery veeeeery dull) and (2) are you happy with the firm/upside potential (while a respectable firm it doesn't have the brand cache of your current employer - and it's easier to move down than up the brand hierarchy). Will you learn/develop as much there as you will at your current place?

    If ultimately you want to make the move then just go ahead and quit. If your firm proactively offers you better terms to stay then that's a different discussion (although with the risks set out above)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Charles said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

    Kippers holding up well post Brexit. I see Arron* Banks is backing Woolfe too.

    *I find this spelling of his name really annoying.
    That he's worried that the Biblical spelling would put off some of his supporters?
    :lol:

    The most unusual name I came across was a young stupid thug called Aeneas. He was a regular in the Crawley local press court announcements. His parents were clearly fans of Greek mythology.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295

    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it

    Working here
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,261
    Wowsers. Black skies in Edinburgh.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723

    Wowsers. Black skies in Edinburgh.

    Thunder and Lightning and torrential rain on west coast
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Mr. 1983, you mean it's going to piss it down?

    Scheduled for rain around 11am here. Can't come soon enough (provided it holds off another half hour so I can post a letter).

    Might also wash away some dog muck that some anti-social delinquents allowed their pet(s) to dump in the middle of narrow paths (so overgrown at this time of year it's hard to spot such things). I'm not a vengeful man, but I have reserved those wretches a place in the barrel of my space cannon.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    Wowsers. Black skies in Edinburgh.

    Wowsers. Black skies in Edinburgh.

    It's been moving quickly up the Irish Sea. We had torrential rain about 30 mins ago.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,600
    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Congratulations on the offer.

    If your heart wants to leave and the position offered is considerably more senior, then just go for it. If you genuinely like your current employer and think they would be receptive to talking then talk - but be aware that some companies see this type of discussion as a resignation and will immediately put you on garden leave if they don't like the other company, so it might have to be played carefully!

    If it's about the money then follow that, but be aware of the cost of living in Switzerland, it's very expensive to live there day to day because of high minimum wages and rents. I see the same in Dubai, where people take a job with what they think is a huge pay rise, but they can't afford to pay the rent for where they'd like to live.

    Good luck whatever you decide though, at the end of the day it's a good position to be in.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,069
    Morning all :)

    Yes, well, it depends from where you start. Most people don't join political parties for the simple acquisition and maintenance of power. Instead, people join because of their personal beliefs and their core belief that the way they think and would do things would be beneficial not just for their community but for the country as a whole. It's a notion of service if you like.

    The central question is or becomes the degree to which you are prepared to compromise tour beliefs for the acquisition of the power to be able to do the things you earnestly believe are best for the country. I imagine some Labour supporters see Blair and all he represented as a compromise too far.

    The corollary is or are those Conservative supporters who were ardent fans of Cameron last month and are now ardent fans of May even though there appear to be huge philosophical and policy differences.

    As a Lib Dem, I would argue that the Party achieved far more in its five years in Coalition than the previous hundred or so in Opposition. That's not to say we achieved nothing in opposition - good Liberal ideas were stolen by the other parties and implemented and that doesn't matter or does it ? Many Conservatives were, I suspect, fairly comfortable with Blair as he provided to use that well-worn phrase "Thatcherism with a human face".

    The supporters of Corbyn don't see it in those terms - they want power, of course, but solely on their terms. Unlike Blair, who consciously went to where the voters were, the Corbyn supporters want the voters to come to them. It might work if the Party was united and coherent but Corbyn's apparent systematic undermining of Shadow Ministers seems beyond comprehension to this observer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    It's funny, as other than the last few days I thought it had been a fairly cold summer. I've worn jumpers on occasion
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Corbyn isn't a political leader. He is a religious leader.

    Labour has acknowledged to itself that it is shit at politics. They haven't won a majority since 1974.* So they might as well have a go at evangelism.

    *Apparently they did win three times under Blair the Heretic. But those wins were nothing to do with the true Labour Party. It was just hijacked by a coalition of concensus-builders and Tory voters. So, like the central computer in Rollerball that just lost the entire 13th Century in a malfunction, that period of Labour's history no longer exists. There are consequently no lessons to be learned.

    I was 7 in 1974. It's that long ago. Mike Yarwood and The Black and White Minstrels were top rated shows.

    Alice Cooper released Billion Dollar Babies the year before. It's that long ago.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    edited July 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

    Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

    Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

    Well done CR!

    Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...
    Mortimer said:

    Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

    Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

    Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

    Well done CR!

    Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...
    CR

    Apologies for being curious but that sounds like a fascinating story - do you know when your banker friend betted on Remain and what odds he got ?

    And I notice that Hart voted 48% Leave - you were not as outnumbered as you thought you were.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    edited July 2016
    kle4 said:

    It's funny, as other than the last few days I thought it had been a fairly cold summer. I've worn jumpers on occasion
    It has been crap here apart from a very odd day here and there. They are obviously not measuring in the UK.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    Time goes quickly. Even if you want to move back in 2 - 3 years, a spell in Switzerland will look good on the cv. Starting from scratch is much easier these days.

    Just don't sell any UK property you own; make sure your re-location package covers rental costs etc.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389

    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it

    Internet very slow here (Glasgow), BBC accessible, Yahoo not.
    Extreme weather does not come alone it would appear.
  • MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    Go for it Max. I moved jobs a year ago. More senior. Came home. It's a liberation and exciting to work somewhere new and you get a better perspective - so it's better for your CV too. You won't regret.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,600
    Owen Smith: "I agree with Tony Blair" from 2006.
    http://order-order.com/2016/07/20/owen-smith-mr-pfi/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    alex. said:

    JWisemann said:

    I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

    Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

    He has no policies.
    He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
    He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
    He does not believe in collective responsibility.
    He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
    He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.


    Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

    He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.
    I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort

    In practice, mass deselections are hard to do because they rely on active members going through a process which involves a lot of meetings - and most new members are not active. The ones that go tot he meetings tend to be stalwarts who will have a good relationship with their MPs built over a number of years. Instead, what we will see before the GE is targeted deselection campaigns against high profile Corbyn critics. Of course, mass deselection becomes a lot easier if you have far fewer MPs, so a very heavy Labour GE defeat actually suits the hard left extremely well.

    Another reason the MPs will not split I guess. They won't all bein the firing line if Corbyn wins.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    alex. said:

    JWisemann said:

    I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

    Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.


    Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

    He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.
    I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

    I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

    Bercow won't agree to that. If Labour MPs form some unofficial internal group, they're still part of Labour, Corbyn is still leader of Labour and as such LotO.

    Alternatively, if they leave (or are kicked out of) Labour, then SDP2 is precisely what it is.
    They would have to leave the Labour party (form an actual new party?) in order to be recognised as the official opposition? I don't really understand the rules around groupings being formed in Parliament. I generally think MPs should be allowed to do what they want once inside Westminster and then face the wrath at the next election.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    You'll go mad with boredom in Switzerland. Make every effort to remain in London.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723

    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it

    Internet very slow here (Glasgow), BBC accessible, Yahoo not.
    Extreme weather does not come alone it would appear.
    I am having trouble with various sites at present
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    kle4 said:

    It's funny, as other than the last few days I thought it had been a fairly cold summer. I've worn jumpers on occasion
    I see they're still pretending that 136 years is a meaningful timescale to describe weather records.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited July 2016
    On a previous thread there was a comment about how in Labour the leader is divorced from the PLP, the PLP are divorced from the members, and the members are divorced from the voters.

    The real problem is the party is divorced from reality. You can blame Facebook/Twitter for that.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    The rebels would have to resign the whip I assume?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    AndyJS said:

    Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

    Labour are overstated, probably by about 20% . the base will be reduced to the Momentum clique once the election is over and the party splits.. Corbyn really is the black knight.
    If the base will be down that much only after a split, it isn't really overstating them by that much right now. Millions and millions will vote for Corbynite labour, let there be no mistake.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,600
    edited July 2016
    Animal_pb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    Time goes quickly. Even if you want to move back in 2 - 3 years, a spell in Switzerland will look good on the cv. Starting from scratch is much easier these days.

    Just don't sell any UK property you own; make sure your re-location package covers rental costs etc.
    :+1:
    Time somewhere else does look good on the CV, shows the skills of adapting to new circumstances and as you say it's much easier these days.

    Also agree with the temporary nature of the move, rent out property rather than selling it and make sure the new company will cover costs like deposits and rent, even if in the form of a loan for the first 6-12 months.

    Also Max, you mention you have a girlfriend. Would she move with you, and what does she do now and could do there etc. Don't need to reply to this point, but do need to have thought about it. Many expat wives get fed up with empty lives of coffee mornings and walks around town, with little to do in the evening in most places compared to London.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Sean_F said:

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.
    I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

    Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

    One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

    There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

    It wouldn't do any harm to reaffirm that though. It kills the believe that NI has to secede and reunify for those worried about their EU rights.

    Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.

    Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.
    My guess is that a Border Poll would show c. 70/30 to stay in the UK.
    Not if Andrew Cooper was running it.
  • malcolmg said:

    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it

    Internet very slow here (Glasgow), BBC accessible, Yahoo not.
    Extreme weather does not come alone it would appear.
    I am having trouble with various sites at present
    Likewise. Some sites (PB!) seem to be loading fine; others (such as the BBC) are loading very slowly, if at all. I'm in the West Midlands, with Plusnet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006



    They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

    You don't need a border control to control your border. Even after Brexit tourists will have the right to.come and visit anyway, what they may not have is the right to work. Companies will continue to be obliged to take a copy of proof of right to work in the UK. If someone travels from Eire to NI or GB then so be it. Treat them the same as any other tourist. That doesn't magically give right to work.

    I thought that one of the reasons we wanted to take back control was to stop terrorists getting into the country. If we are not going to police our borders how does that work?

    As we now know SO the "promises" made by the Leave campaign were basically for the sole purpose of winning (aka conning the WWC). Most have disappeared as fast as snow in summer once the objective has been achieved. Can't wait to see the reaction when we continue with FoM as we surely will!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The Telegraph: Britain 'can still join EU military missions after Brexit' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwmMKDuyw

    Oh thank you so much!

    Did I say thank you so much? I meant f*ck off.
    Why? It should be a statement of the blindingly obvious. We can and rightly do join with our American allies in missions so why not our European allies?

    The difference is it will be as allies rather than a subservient part.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    malcolmg said:

    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it

    Internet very slow here (Glasgow), BBC accessible, Yahoo not.
    Extreme weather does not come alone it would appear.
    I am having trouble with various sites at present
    Likewise. Some sites (PB!) seem to be loading fine; others (such as the BBC) are loading very slowly, if at all. I'm in the West Midlands, with Plusnet.
    Same thing happened in Turkey during the coup.

    Just saying...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    OllyT said:



    They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

    You don't need a border control to control your border. Even after Brexit tourists will have the right to.come and visit anyway, what they may not have is the right to work. Companies will continue to be obliged to take a copy of proof of right to work in the UK. If someone travels from Eire to NI or GB then so be it. Treat them the same as any other tourist. That doesn't magically give right to work.

    I thought that one of the reasons we wanted to take back control was to stop terrorists getting into the country. If we are not going to police our borders how does that work?

    As we now know SO the "promises" made by the Leave campaign were basically for the sole purpose of winning (aka conning the WWC). Most have disappeared as fast as snow in summer once the objective has been achieved. Can't wait to see the reaction when we continue with FoM as we surely will!
    As a leaver, albeit perhaps an atypical one, I'd be very happy with that, but I'm not so sure may has the willingness or ability to go for it, given her cabinet appointments.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Sandpit said:

    Animal_pb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    Time goes quickly. Even if you want to move back in 2 - 3 years, a spell in Switzerland will look good on the cv. Starting from scratch is much easier these days.

    Just don't sell any UK property you own; make sure your re-location package covers rental costs etc.
    :+1:
    Time somewhere else does look good on the CV, shows the skills of adapting to new circumstances and as you say it's much easier these days.

    Also agree with the temporary nature of the move, rent out property rather than selling it and make sure the new company will cover costs like deposits and rent, even if in the form of a loan for the first 6-12 months.

    Also Max, you mention you have a girlfriend. Would she move with you, and what does she do now and could do there etc. Don't need to reply to this point, but do need to have thought about it. Many expat wives get fed up with empty lives of coffee mornings and walks around town, with little to do in the evening in most places compared to London.
    My gf is Swiss so no need to worry about her, she has friends and family there and she would find work fairly easily given that she is just about to finish a two year stint at the Swiss embassy in London.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 942
    By Elections. Tooting, Oldham, Labour been doing well. Ipsos Moris last week Labour at 35% well up on the 2015 general election. Mike are you falling for the media agenda as well.
    PS I am not a Labour supporter
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it

    Internet very slow here (Glasgow), BBC accessible, Yahoo not.
    Extreme weather does not come alone it would appear.
    I am having trouble with various sites at present
    A great loss to human enlightenment.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,069
    Interesting to hear so many on here talking down the prospects of a "new party" formed from a Labour breakaway. Oddly enough, it might be a new centre or centre-left party might find plenty of potential recruits from among those who voted Conservative in 2015.

    The SDP may not have attracted large numbers of Conservative MPs but it did attract some Councillors and members and, more significantly, a large number who had voted either Conservative or Labour but had never joined either party.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Thankfully this is in the asset manager in Zurich, if it was Geneva I wouldn't have bothered to apply.
  • MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    It would certainly NEED to be for "substantially more money". Before deciding, try buying a Big Mac in Geneva, that worldwide measure of the cost of living. Also, check the exchange rate - which is great if you can save out of your salary, the Swiss Franc moves in one direction only.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    On a previous thread there was a comment about how in Laboir the leader is divorced from the PLP, the PLP are divorced from the members, and the members are divorced from the voters.

    The real problem is the party is divorced from reality. You can blame Facebook/Twitter for that.

    There's also the Unions. They're divorced from the views of their own members, in fact they're even divorced from Labour members on an issue like Trident. Lisa Nandy was on Newsnight saying that if the Labour party is going to succeed on a socialist platform all sections of the party need to unite. But unite around what? The only way of doing so is if you accept an enormous fudge of compromises. So maybe Labour will be pro-trident to appease the Unions, pro-NHS to appeal to its own voters, anti-foreign intervention to please the Corbynites and pro-EU to please the PLP. Is it really a coherent ideology?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    You have two issues -

    1) leaving your current employer.
    I have never matched other offers from people working for me. It's too easy to ask why you haven't complained before now. If you are even considering another offer then psychologically you're ready to leave.

    2) moving abroad.
    It depends where, why, and for how long. If you are only going for a year or two then it's not that critical where, depending on your needs. In my early 20s I knew I wanted to move permanently to the US so it was easy for me. I knew I wasn't coming back. If you plan on returning to the UK then real estate etc needs to be considered. There may be tax implications. Try not to move to a country you don't know.

    You didn't mention family issues, so I assume you have that settled.

    Whatever you decide the best of luck.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    Mortimer said:

    Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

    Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

    Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

    Well done CR!

    Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...
    Mortimer said:

    Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

    Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

    Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

    Well done CR!

    Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...
    CR

    Apologies for being curious but that sounds like a fascinating story - do you know when your banker friend betted on Remain and what odds he got ?

    And I notice that Hart voted 48% Leave - you were not as outnumbered as you thought you were.
    I don't know, I'm afraid. I did try to warn him but he was very dismissive.

    Yes, Hart ended up about where I thought it would for a national tie. For a national Leave victory I thought Leave might carry the district, but I think it was a case of a very great many city commuters outnumbering the rest.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Thankfully this is in the asset manager in Zurich, if it was Geneva I wouldn't have bothered to apply.
    Zurich is worse. Teutonic tedium trumps Gallic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,600

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Nowhere is as bad as Riyadh for tedium, surely? tens of thousands of both locals and expats there turn up in Bahrain and Dubai every weekend as there's literally nothing to do at home.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    theakes said:

    By Elections. Tooting, Oldham, Labour been doing well. Ipsos Moris last week Labour at 35% well up on the 2015 general election. Mike are you falling for the media agenda as well.
    PS I am not a Labour supporter

    So it's a conspiracy by the media, of course. Didn't the daily mirror say Corbyn should go?

    I happen to think people will be surprised how well labour holds up in a GE under Corbyn, the labour remains that strong, but single polls and by-election In labour heartlands are not much to go on. If that is evidence the media agenda is wrong, there's plenty of competing evidence of a similar nature saying the agenda is right.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    Pong said:

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    But but but..

    Theresa Villiers said this wouldn't happen.

    And anyone who pointed out the obvious constitutional implications of brexit on NI was being "highly irresponsible"

    Thanks for fucking up my country.
    Jog on. The integrity of this country does not depend on our membership of a federal continental union of only a few decades standing and the U.K. successfully existed for hundreds of years before it.
    Successful isn't the first word that comes to mind when thinking about the last few hundred years of Ireland's position in the UK.
    The U.K. has been very successful for Scotland and places like Belfast and Dublin in Ireland.

    I accept it was far less so for the rest of the island of Ireland, which is why they left of course, but the political settlement has been there for more or less a hundred years now and the Good Friday agreement seems to be something everyone can live with.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,600
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Animal_pb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    Time goes quickly. Even if you want to move back in 2 - 3 years, a spell in Switzerland will look good on the cv. Starting from scratch is much easier these days.

    Just don't sell any UK property you own; make sure your re-location package covers rental costs etc.
    :+1:
    Time somewhere else does look good on the CV, shows the skills of adapting to new circumstances and as you say it's much easier these days.

    Also agree with the temporary nature of the move, rent out property rather than selling it and make sure the new company will cover costs like deposits and rent, even if in the form of a loan for the first 6-12 months.

    Also Max, you mention you have a girlfriend. Would she move with you, and what does she do now and could do there etc. Don't need to reply to this point, but do need to have thought about it. Many expat wives get fed up with empty lives of coffee mornings and walks around town, with little to do in the evening in most places compared to London.
    My gf is Swiss so no need to worry about her, she has friends and family there and she would find work fairly easily given that she is just about to finish a two year stint at the Swiss embassy in London.
    Cool. That's one big headache that you won't have then.

    I'd say go for it :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    On topic: Corbyn hasn't actually failed drastically in any real polls yet. That's not to say he won't, and according to the models he is likely to. But he hasn't yet :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    Think of skiing, wakeboarding, hiking and weekend breaks into France and Italy et al.

    Also, you can arrange to fly back once a month for the first few months or so until you're settled. Doesn't cost much and only an hour or so away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited July 2016
    stodge said:

    Interesting to hear so many on here talking down the prospects of a "new party" formed from a Labour breakaway. Oddly enough, it might be a new centre or centre-left party might find plenty of potential recruits from among those who voted Conservative in 2015.

    The SDP may not have attracted large numbers of Conservative MPs but it did attract some Councillors and members and, more significantly, a large number who had voted either Conservative or Labour but had never joined either party.

    It's not really a question whether a new party might be appealing or not and who too -it's a question of under what circumstances woukd anyone form it and how electorally successful woukd it be, both of which have uncertain to difficult answers. If more than 1-2 lab MPs leave labour, even just to sit as independent labour or something, I'll be stunned. And my first get woukd be none do it. Corbyn himself proves you can happily exist in a party despute hundreds of rebellions.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Nowhere is as bad as Riyadh for tedium, surely? tens of thousands of both locals and expats there turn up in Bahrain and Dubai every weekend as there's literally nothing to do at home.
    That sounds like Geneva to me, a few expats I know go to Nice for weekends from Geneva.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169

    malcolmg said:

    is the BBC website down, I cannot get onto it

    Internet very slow here (Glasgow), BBC accessible, Yahoo not.
    Extreme weather does not come alone it would appear.
    I am having trouble with various sites at present
    Likewise. Some sites (PB!) seem to be loading fine; others (such as the BBC) are loading very slowly, if at all. I'm in the West Midlands, with Plusnet.
    I've been wondering if there's some kind of cyber attack going on in North America, which is where most of the websites I'm having trouble with are based.

    Seems odd that it would affect so many though. Just hope it doesn't affect flight computers!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Congrats, Mr. Max.

    Mr. Sandpit, not sure if you saw it last night when I posted, but Ladbrokes had their full markets up. Surprised how short Red Bull are.

    Also, rain is possible for race day.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    For the people wondering why the internet is slow according to our IT department the 1&1 servers are intermittent.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Animal_pb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Thanks guys, much to mull over. I think I'm going to hand in my notice as soon as I receive the paperwork. I haven't fully decided to leave, but this is a huge opportunity as it is a massive jump in seniority and pay, I'm just not sure I want to move overseas where I'll be starting from scratch in terms of living there.

    Time goes quickly. Even if you want to move back in 2 - 3 years, a spell in Switzerland will look good on the cv. Starting from scratch is much easier these days.

    Just don't sell any UK property you own; make sure your re-location package covers rental costs etc.
    :+1:
    Time somewhere else does look good on the CV, shows the skills of adapting to new circumstances and as you say it's much easier these days.

    Also agree with the temporary nature of the move, rent out property rather than selling it and make sure the new company will cover costs like deposits and rent, even if in the form of a loan for the first 6-12 months.

    Also Max, you mention you have a girlfriend. Would she move with you, and what does she do now and could do there etc. Don't need to reply to this point, but do need to have thought about it. Many expat wives get fed up with empty lives of coffee mornings and walks around town, with little to do in the evening in most places compared to London.
    My gf is Swiss so no need to worry about her, she has friends and family there and she would find work fairly easily given that she is just about to finish a two year stint at the Swiss embassy in London.
    Your gf has wisely fled Switzerland. She'll never forgive you if you drag her back to cuckoo clock land.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Mr. Pulpstar, didn't Corbyn have record-breakingly bad local election results?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920

    Pong said:

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    But but but..

    Theresa Villiers said this wouldn't happen.

    And anyone who pointed out the obvious constitutional implications of brexit on NI was being "highly irresponsible"

    Thanks for fucking up my country.
    Jog on. The integrity of this country does not depend on our membership of a federal continental union of only a few decades standing and the U.K. successfully existed for hundreds of years before it.
    Successful isn't the first word that comes to mind when thinking about the last few hundred years of Ireland's position in the UK.
    The U.K. has been very successful for Scotland and places like Belfast and Dublin in Ireland.

    I accept it was far less so for the rest of the island of Ireland, which is why they left of course, but the political settlement has been there for more or less a hundred years now and the Good Friday agreement seems to be something everyone can live with.
    The preamble to which says:

    "Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union..."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Nowhere is as bad as Riyadh for tedium, surely? tens of thousands of both locals and expats there turn up in Bahrain and Dubai every weekend as there's literally nothing to do at home.
    That sounds like Geneva to me, a few expats I know go to Nice for weekends from Geneva.
    I was in Geneva on a Sunday once and it was like being in 28 days later.

    Totally deserted. Nothing open.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I see Owen Smith has blamed bullying at the BBC for his decision to call 999; what kind of idiocy can we expect from him once the Corbyn Cult get started?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    stodge said:

    Interesting to hear so many on here talking down the prospects of a "new party" formed from a Labour breakaway. Oddly enough, it might be a new centre or centre-left party might find plenty of potential recruits from among those who voted Conservative in 2015.

    The SDP may not have attracted large numbers of Conservative MPs but it did attract some Councillors and members and, more significantly, a large number who had voted either Conservative or Labour but had never joined either party.

    Really? May is not Thatcher. I don't think she will alienate too much of the Tory vote.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    theakes said:

    By Elections. Tooting, Oldham, Labour been doing well. Ipsos Moris last week Labour at 35% well up on the 2015 general election. Mike are you falling for the media agenda as well.
    PS I am not a Labour supporter

    theakes said:

    By Elections. Tooting, Oldham, Labour been doing well. Ipsos Moris last week Labour at 35% well up on the 2015 general election. Mike are you falling for the media agenda as well.
    PS I am not a Labour supporter

    Labour has a strong brand and will still do OK in by-elections, polls etc - I would still vote Labour locally for the right candidate. The huge disaster heading Labours's way is when we have a GE campaign and voters confront the idea of making Corbyn PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Thankfully this is in the asset manager in Zurich, if it was Geneva I wouldn't have bothered to apply.
    Zurich is worse. Teutonic tedium trumps Gallic.
    In a way, but Zurich does have a bit more going on and is much closer to many more interesting parts of Switzerland.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920

    I see Owen Smith has blamed bullying at the BBC for his decision to call 999; what kind of idiocy can we expect from him once the Corbyn Cult get started?

    He'll call International Rescue for help?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    I see Owen Smith has blamed bullying at the BBC for his decision to call 999; what kind of idiocy can we expect from him once the Corbyn Cult get started?

    He'll call International Rescue for help?
    You think he might be a stalking horse for D.Miliband?!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    stodge said:

    Interesting to hear so many on here talking down the prospects of a "new party" formed from a Labour breakaway. Oddly enough, it might be a new centre or centre-left party might find plenty of potential recruits from among those who voted Conservative in 2015.

    The SDP may not have attracted large numbers of Conservative MPs but it did attract some Councillors and members and, more significantly, a large number who had voted either Conservative or Labour but had never joined either party.

    I think it might peel off people like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen.

    I also have a europhile Tory friend of mine who might be attracted.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,426
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Thankfully this is in the asset manager in Zurich, if it was Geneva I wouldn't have bothered to apply.
    Congratulations on your job offer. You will regret it, I think, if you don't go for it.

    Geneva is a good place to live, actually, as is Zurich. Both places are understated but I would say Zurich is the less lively of the two, if that's a concern for you.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Mr. Royale, that perplexes me. A New Labour Party would just be a Labour Party without the insanity of Corbyn. What's the appeal for anyone who wouldn't've joined Labour itself under Blair, Brown or Miliband?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925

    Mortimer said:

    Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

    Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

    Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

    Well done CR!

    Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...
    Mortimer said:

    Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

    Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

    Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

    Well done CR!

    Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...
    CR

    Apologies for being curious but that sounds like a fascinating story - do you know when your banker friend betted on Remain and what odds he got ?

    And I notice that Hart voted 48% Leave - you were not as outnumbered as you thought you were.
    I don't know, I'm afraid. I did try to warn him but he was very dismissive.

    Yes, Hart ended up about where I thought it would for a national tie. For a national Leave victory I thought Leave might carry the district, but I think it was a case of a very great many city commuters outnumbering the rest.
    Thanks.

    It sounds like your banker friend preferred his own echo chamber to listening to someone with a different view.

    But isn't that the default mentality for bankers ?

    Do you have any idea why adjacent Rushmoor district was strongly Leave ?
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    stodge said:

    Interesting to hear so many on here talking down the prospects of a "new party" formed from a Labour breakaway. Oddly enough, it might be a new centre or centre-left party might find plenty of potential recruits from among those who voted Conservative in 2015.

    The SDP may not have attracted large numbers of Conservative MPs but it did attract some Councillors and members and, more significantly, a large number who had voted either Conservative or Labour but had never joined either party.

    I think it might peel off people like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen.

    I also have a europhile Tory friend of mine who might be attracted.
    That's four voters then. Sounds like they will do as well as the Pro-euro Conservative Party/Lib Dem & Labour sockpuppets party did in the 1990s.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    SLab shuffling creakily (and no doubt disjointedly) towards a constitutional position.

    https://twitter.com/ScottishSun/status/755667948291891200
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    Pong said:

    City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

    I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.
    But but but..

    Theresa Villiers said this wouldn't happen.

    And anyone who pointed out the obvious constitutional implications of brexit on NI was being "highly irresponsible"

    Thanks for fucking up my country.
    Jog on. The integrity of this country does not depend on our membership of a federal continental union of only a few decades standing and the U.K. successfully existed for hundreds of years before it.
    Successful isn't the first word that comes to mind when thinking about the last few hundred years of Ireland's position in the UK.
    The U.K. has been very successful for Scotland and places like Belfast and Dublin in Ireland.

    I accept it was far less so for the rest of the island of Ireland, which is why they left of course, but the political settlement has been there for more or less a hundred years now and the Good Friday agreement seems to be something everyone can live with.
    The preamble to which says:

    "Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union..."
    Yup, which is why it needs updating as I said downthread.

    The EU itself also says it aims to develop friendly and close relations with its near neighbours in Lisbon too, so this is really not an issue.

    What it does show it just how far the EU got its tentacles into just about everything over the last 40 years.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Nowhere is as bad as Riyadh for tedium, surely? tens of thousands of both locals and expats there turn up in Bahrain and Dubai every weekend as there's literally nothing to do at home.
    That sounds like Geneva to me, a few expats I know go to Nice for weekends from Geneva.
    Always founding it intriguing that we call ourselves "ex-pats" when we move somewhere else rather than "immigrants" which is what we are.

    Not aimed at you personally by the way, I would go for it and good luck if you do. Would be great experience
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    kle4 said:

    theakes said:

    By Elections. Tooting, Oldham, Labour been doing well. Ipsos Moris last week Labour at 35% well up on the 2015 general election. Mike are you falling for the media agenda as well.
    PS I am not a Labour supporter

    So it's a conspiracy by the media, of course. Didn't the daily mirror say Corbyn should go?

    I happen to think people will be surprised how well labour holds up in a GE under Corbyn, the labour remains that strong, but single polls and by-election In labour heartlands are not much to go on. If that is evidence the media agenda is wrong, there's plenty of competing evidence of a similar nature saying the agenda is right.
    It's a fair point. If we assume that, of the 2 heartlands, London and the North, London is pretty much nailed on regardless, what happens to the North?

    I yield to no man in my low regard for Mr Corbyn. But there's a not inconsiderable chance that swapping him now, for the apparently uninspiring Mr Smith, might actually make it easier for UKIP to take lumps out of their Northern constituencies.

    Just sayin'.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I see Owen Smith has blamed bullying at the BBC for his decision to call 999; what kind of idiocy can we expect from him once the Corbyn Cult get started?

    He'll call International Rescue for help?
    Would he get Scott in Thunderbird 1 or Virgil in Thunderbird 2?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I've always found Germanic cities nicer to visit than Romance cities (cleaner, better organised) but less enjoyable to stay in. I would move to Rome or Florence in a heartbeat. And if I was ever to find a particularly special rare book treasure, I'd be on the phone to Estate agents in Amalfi or Capri within the hour.

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    George Osborne's swan song - unemployment down to 4.9%, wages up 2.3%. The boy done good.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    OllyT said:



    They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

    You don't need a border control to control your border. Even after Brexit tourists will have the right to.come and visit anyway, what they may not have is the right to work. Companies will continue to be obliged to take a copy of proof of right to work in the UK. If someone travels from Eire to NI or GB then so be it. Treat them the same as any other tourist. That doesn't magically give right to work.

    I thought that one of the reasons we wanted to take back control was to stop terrorists getting into the country. If we are not going to police our borders how does that work?

    As we now know SO the "promises" made by the Leave campaign were basically for the sole purpose of winning (aka conning the WWC). Most have disappeared as fast as snow in summer once the objective has been achieved. Can't wait to see the reaction when we continue with FoM as we surely will!
    Given that the Leave campaign no longer exists, that was inevitable. If you must blame someone, blame Cameron, who could have set the referendum up differently, for example by saying what the government would do in the event of a Leave vote.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Unemployment rate falls to 4.9%
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Mr. Pulpstar, didn't Corbyn have record-breakingly bad local election results?

    Nope , prior to May , there were forecasts that Labour would lose 150-200 seats and Conservatives would make net gains . Labour ended up with a net loss of just 18 and the Conservatives a loss of 48
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    OllyT said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update on my Swiss adventure, I've received an offer for a job there starting early next year (I have a six month notice period). It's substantially more money, but I'd be leaving London. Should I approach my current work place to match terms and seniority or should I just leave?

    Do it, sounds like a fantastic opportunity and great experience. Even if only for a couple of years, and then you move back, you won't regret it.

    Although Charles is right. Geneva competes with Riyadh for tedium.
    Nowhere is as bad as Riyadh for tedium, surely? tens of thousands of both locals and expats there turn up in Bahrain and Dubai every weekend as there's literally nothing to do at home.
    That sounds like Geneva to me, a few expats I know go to Nice for weekends from Geneva.
    Always founding it intriguing that we call ourselves "ex-pats" when we move somewhere else rather than "immigrants" which is what we are.

    Not aimed at you personally by the way, I would go for it and good luck if you do. Would be great experience
    To me an ex-pat is someone who goes to work abroad, meaning to eventually return. An emigrant - like me - is someone who leaves permanently and does not plan to return.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Mr. PB, I'd be wary of lumping 'the North' together. Even within Yorkshire there are huge differences (the People's Republic of South Yorkshire, Super Blue North Yorkshire, and West Yorkshire, which is crammed with red-blue marginals). The north-east is much less favourable to the blues, I gather.

    And that's before we cross the Pennines into Mordor.
This discussion has been closed.