@MaxPB - Living and working abroad was one of the most exciting, eye-opening and rewarding episodes of my life. I cannot recommend it enough. Do it.
What's more, as an employer I would be very pissed off if an employee used a job offer as a bargaining chip. It's not a negotiation I'd ever get into. If they want you enough they'll make an offer to keep you anyway.
I've never ever made a counter offer to a restless employee. It's counter-productive as it impacts others in your team. Feel good that you've helped bring someone on, give them a firm handshake and wave your hanky as they leave.
Me neither. When you've applied for a job elsewhere - your heart is already leaving.
"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.
That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.
Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."
I personally feel ultra-low interest rates are counter-productive to economic growth. I don't think there is really any rationale for bringing interest rates down below - say - 1.5%.
Yes, we've reached or exceeded the point at which lowering interest rates helps. All that ultra-low interest rates are doing now is inflating asset prices.
Mr. Eagles, may watch PMQs, for once (well, twice, saw Cameron's last one).
On the banned Twitter chap, not following it too closely, but I do think freedom of speech should be upheld to the maximum degree.
On a broader note, Twitter still needs to find its place. It can't be a free speech platform *and* a safe space.
I work on the principle that Nero crossed the line from trolling to incitement, not only just on this occasion, so Twitter probably were right.
What did he say, do you know? Considering the torrents of abuse hurtling round twitter every day, not to mention regular incitements to violence and hatred, it must have been something uniquely terrible.
I believe it was to do with the creation of a spoof account in her name that spewed some anti white rhetoric, that led him encouraging him followers to abuse her in similar terms.
Unfortunately I'm at work, and our internet has crashed and gone into safe mode, so I can't google those terms without setting off the firewall and being forced to have a chat with the HR Director
It's weird. I can get onto PB but not onto AOL. For most websites there is no responding ping when your computer contacts them. Not at all sure why PB is different.
"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.
That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.
Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."
I personally feel ultra-low interest rates are counter-productive to economic growth. I don't think there is really any rationale for bringing interest rates down below - say - 1.5%.
Yes, we've reached or exceeded the point at which lowering interest rates helps. All that ultra-low interest rates are doing now is inflating asset prices.
Hallelujah! The more house prices go up, the less inclined I am to spend my money as I feel I need to be saving more and more to be in a position to buy my first property.
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
I thought that before Ian Paisley Jr (I think it was him) advised otherwise.
I think we are seeing a split between 'Tory' Church of Ireland middle classes and working class nonconformists. This is currently most obvious in DUP/UUP split but it must not be forgotton that in the Irish rebellion of 1798 (which led to abolition of Irish Parliament and direct rule) the leader was a nonconformist protestant who made common cause with the Catholics against the C of E establishment.
DUP types are protestant Irish Nationalists who call themselves British. Slowly the penny is dropping that they as protestant Irish Nationalists have far more in common with catholic Irish Nationalists than the British establiahment.
Attempts to force gay marriage and abortion on Northern Ireland have brought this home though (catholics in NI are more conservative than in RoI too), Brexit is a red herring in this regard.
Rubbish
What's the background to your single word response?
Catholics in NI are far more conservative than their Southern counterparts they haven't had 20 years of stories about previous Catholic church abuses... That's utterly destroyed the reputation of the church south of the border and many people have become more liberal as they see how the church worked the abuse it happily perpetuated
That is good news. The interesting question will be what the preliminary Markit PMIs look like on Friday.
I'd also keep an eye on housing market volumes over the next couple of months.
Also looks like it puts off a rate cut.
I personally feel ultra-low interest rates are counter-productive to economic growth. I don't think there is really any rationale for bringing interest rates down below - say - 1.5%.
I agree. The negative consequences are numerous and distorting our economy making our obsession with bricks and mortar greater than ever.
About the only thing it clearly benefits is the cost of Government borrowing when we still have a huge deficit. Funny that.
Likewise. Some sites (PB!) seem to be loading fine; others (such as the BBC) are loading very slowly, if at all. I'm in the West Midlands, with Plusnet.
Looks like a BT peering issue in London which has just cleared
That is good news. The interesting question will be what the preliminary Markit PMIs look like on Friday.
I'd also keep an eye on housing market volumes over the next couple of months.
They will be down. But is that meaningful? In part these surveys are like opinion polls and have sent misleading signals in the recent past - 1998, 2001-02 for example.
Isn't that a case of 'it depends'?
We can't choose to pay attention to only those signals which point in our preferred direction.
My point is we need to be careful about interpreting these kinds of signals, not that we dismiss them.
FYI the OECD has recently announced it is suspending the publication of some of its leading indicators on the grounds that 'Brexit effects' may have distorted the results.
Likewise. Some sites (PB!) seem to be loading fine; others (such as the BBC) are loading very slowly, if at all. I'm in the West Midlands, with Plusnet.
Looks like a BT peering issue in London which has just cleared
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen not to take up UK citizenship.
vs
3.03m non-EU workers in the UK, of which only 1.192m have decided not to take up UK citizenship.
I think that's why there is a lot of anger at EU immigration that there is less of towards non-EU immigration, again I'm not saying that people look at the ONS figures and then say, oh look at all those EU immigrants refusing to take up UK nationality, it's more like something people feel. Non-EU citizens are here for the long haul, they want to make a life for themselves here and become British, the same isn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).
Why on earth would anybody waste time jumping through hoops to get papers that give you no rights you don't already have? You'd need either an unhealthy yearning for belonging or a crazy amount of time on your hands.
"In 1970s Leeds – where I threw my tantrums – things were different. My poor benighted budgie couldn’t even fly, and in the school holidays I bounced a tennis ball off the garage wall. If mum told me I was being spoiled – which, at her wits’ end, the poor woman occasionally did – it was a terrible, sobering badge of shame.
Being “spoiled” was much worse even than “letting the whole school down”. It meant I was selfish and out of control. Worst of all, it meant I wasn’t as mature and suave as – at 8 or 9 years of age – I wanted to think I was."
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m).
But .
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
Lol. Totally agree with your final paragraph.
This is pre-lagershed but, in my experience, they are much more fun and less priggish plus they *know what they are doing*, if you catch my drift.
Too many English girls act like something out of peep show or four weddings and a funeral, "oh, ah, I'm sorry.. Ooh, that's quite good. Oh golly.. Etc."
Silencing bigots does nothing to stop bigotry, if anything it just stops them being challenged. Social media shouldn't be banning the most vilest.
Twitter should be working for the benefit of its shareholders. If silencing @Nero increases usage of its platform, it should do so, and vice-versa.
Clearly silencing noone is the best option for profitability, having political arguments and outrage will generate more tweets. It's not like kicking out nero allows someone else to take his finite spot...
Clearly silencing noone is the best option for profitability, having political arguments and outrage will generate more tweets. It's not like kicking out nero allows someone else to take his finite spot...
Kicking out trolls like this guy ensures greater participation. Personally, I would prefer people like this to be punished by the law (in whatever country they are in) but the law is too soft and tracking them down and exacting justice is, sadly, frowned upon.
In the UK people on Twitter are often punished by law for what they say - we have a set of laws in this respect which are imo regularly abused.
Since about 15 (?) years ago the police send official letters giving warnings to people who have not committed any offences.
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen.
I think that's why there is a lot of anger at EU immigration that there is less of towards non-EU immigration, again I'm not saying that people look at the ONS figures and then say, oh look at all those EU immigrants refusing to take up UK nationality, it's more like something people feel. Non-EU citizens are here for the long haul, they want to make a life for themselves here and become British, the same isn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).
Now, you can say that this isn't immigration we wish to encourage (and that's fine), but it is also immigration that will naturally fall away. It will be harder to come to the UK, and most Anas will head back home.
This is why I suspect that EU immigration is likely to turn negative in the next couple of years. It'll be harder to come here, and many people were going to go home anyway.
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
That is good news. The interesting question will be what the preliminary Markit PMIs look like on Friday.
I'd also keep an eye on housing market volumes over the next couple of months.
Also looks like it puts off a rate cut.
I personally feel ultra-low interest rates are counter-productive to economic growth. I don't think there is really any rationale for bringing interest rates down below - say - 1.5%.
Yes, I'm secretly hoping that the BoE use the spectre of inflation due to the weakness of Sterling to start raising rates until we reach sort of around 1.5%, that will help to fix our savings rate and current account deficit much better than depreciation of the currency.
Brexit is going to bring real inflation back to the UK, which is a classic mixed blessing. We've had services inflation of ~2.5% for a while, countered by goods deflation.
The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.
The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.
Out of the 1.6 million out of work, there are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed. Then there are just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.
It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.
PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!
Yes, I'm secretly hoping that the BoE use the spectre of inflation due to the weakness of Sterling to start raising rates until we reach sort of around 1.5%, that will help to fix our savings rate and current account deficit much better than depreciation of the currency.
The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).
The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen.
I think that's why there is a lot of anger at EU immigration that there is less of towards non-EU immigration, again I'm not saying that people look at the ONS figures and then say, oh look at all those EU immigrants refusing to take up UK nationality, it's more like something people feel. Non-EU citizens are here for the long haul, they want to make a life for themselves here and become British, the same isn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).
Now, you can say that this isn't immigration we wish to encourage (and that's fine), but it is also immigration that will naturally fall away. It will be harder to come to the UK, and most Anas will head back home.
This is why I suspect that EU immigration is likely to turn negative in the next couple of years. It'll be harder to come here, and many people were going to go home anyway.
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
Good word shryke. Shall note in my Scrabble file!
Is it a legal word though, Mr. Cole? In my household you wouldn't get away with it as it does not appear in the Chambers Twentieth Century Dictionary, which is, for us, the ultimate Scrabble decider.
That is good news. The interesting question will be what the preliminary Markit PMIs look like on Friday.
I'd also keep an eye on housing market volumes over the next couple of months.
Also looks like it puts off a rate cut.
I personally feel ultra-low interest rates are counter-productive to economic growth. I don't think there is really any rationale for bringing interest rates down below - say - 1.5%.
I agree. The negative consequences are numerous and distorting our economy making our obsession with bricks and mortar greater than ever.
About the only thing it clearly benefits is the cost of Government borrowing when we still have a huge deficit. Funny that.
It benefits government borrowing (and the servicing of debt) *today*. It doesn't give any guarantees about tomorrow.
Yes, I'm secretly hoping that the BoE use the spectre of inflation due to the weakness of Sterling to start raising rates until we reach sort of around 1.5%, that will help to fix our savings rate and current account deficit much better than depreciation of the currency.
The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).
AIUI, QE hasn't been used for a couple of years or more
"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.
That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.
Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m).
But .
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
Lol. Totally agree with your final paragraph.
This is pre-lagershed but, in my experience, they are much more fun and less priggish plus they *know what they are doing*, if you catch my drift.
Too many English girls act like something out of peep show or four weddings and a funeral, "oh, ah, I'm sorry.. Ooh, that's quite good. Oh golly.. Etc."
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland
I can't see the Netherlands or Denmark leaving the EU, because they are really just part of Greater Germany, and their economies are so integrated with it.
If I were to rank in order the most likely exits from the EU, I think I'd put Italy first. With Sweden most likely behind it.
Italy is in the Euro though so if it ever left there would be an economic collapse which would make BREXIT look like a picnic. Sweden and Denmark are not and if they were ever pushed to join the eurozone they may leave. Hungary has a rightwing populist government and also is an outside contender
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
Re next to go, this chart explains why I think Italy is the one to worry about:
The Euro is right for my country (or somesuch):
It's net, and excludes DKs. The UK is something like 10% in Favour, 70% against.
The Italians used to devalue their currency when they felt it was needed, much to the disdain of German manufacturers. Merkel won't let them go that's why she wants to change the treaties to stop further referendums.
Yes, I'm secretly hoping that the BoE use the spectre of inflation due to the weakness of Sterling to start raising rates until we reach sort of around 1.5%, that will help to fix our savings rate and current account deficit much better than depreciation of the currency.
The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).
AIUI, QE hasn't been used for a couple of years or more
That's a question that can be answered both ways.
Until Brexit no additional QE money has been created since 2012 but as bonds have matured the money has been used to buy subsequent bonds rather than letting the market buy those bonds...
I see my earlier comments about the possibility of a breakaway centre or centre left party attracting support from the Conservatives drew the usual derision from the usual suspects which only tells me how complacent the Conservatives have become.
Let's start with stating the obvious - not all the 37% who voted Conservative in 2015 are actually Conservatives. Cameron was able through a combination of a decent public image and fear of a Labour/SNP Government to drag people into the Conservative camp (and I would include a large number of ex-LDs in that).
A "new" party of the centre or centre-left would not be unattractive led, say by a Dan Jarvis or similar. Unashamedly pro-EU (though that needs defining of course) and strong on social justice as well as espousing an economic policy bereft of spending excesses but at the same time continuing to help the working poor, would, in my view, have the chance of drawing in a substantial chunk of that 2015 Conservative vote.
It's all in the air at the moment and, as I can attest, leaving a party for which you have worked or campaigned for decades isn't easy. You can rationalise it by saying I haven't left the Party, the Party has left me, but it's emotionally difficult. It's also supremely liberating.
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen not to take up UK citizenship.
vs
3.03m non-EU workers in the UK, of which only 1.192m have decided not to take up UK citizenship.
I think that's why there is a lot of anger at EU immigration that there is less of towards non-EU immigration, again I'm not saying that people look at the ONS figures and then say, oh look at all those EU immigrants refusing to take up UK nationality, it's more like something people feel. Non-EU citizens are here for the long haul, they want to make a life for themselves here and become British, the same isn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).
Raises a good point. Ending freedom of movement means more people naturalise and stay.
I don't think, however, those objecting to immigration as a concept prefer immigrants to stay rather than go away again.
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m).
But .
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
Lol. Totally agree with your final paragraph.
This is pre-lagershed but, in my experience, they are much more fun and less priggish plus they *know what they are doing*, if you catch my drift.
Too many English girls act like something out of peep show or four weddings and a funeral, "oh, ah, I'm sorry.. Ooh, that's quite good. Oh golly.. Etc."
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen.
I thinkisn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).
But a very large proportion of those people aren't planning on staying: Ana from Spain who's serving you in Starbucks is here because (a) London is exciting, and (b) the job prospects were shit when she graduated. Realistically, with the Spanish job market dramatically improving, unless she meets a nice English boy, she'll be heading back in twelve months when living three to a room in Camberwell loses its appeal.
Now, you can say that this isn't immigration we wish to encourage (and that's fine), but it is also immigration that will naturally fall away. It will be harder to come to the UK, and most Anas will head back home.
This is why I suspect that EU immigration is likely to turn negative in the next couple of years. It'll be harder to come here, and many people were going to go home anyway.
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
British women have residency rights here. They have no need to be nice to lecherous middle aged men :-)
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland
I can't see the Netherlands or Denmark leaving the EU, because they are really just part of Greater Germany, and their economies are so integrated with it.
If I were to rank in order the most likely exits from the EU, I think I'd put Italy first. With Sweden most likely behind it.
Italy is in the Euro though so if it ever left there would be an economic collapse which would make BREXIT look like a picnic. Sweden and Denmark are not and if they were ever pushed to join the eurozone they may leave. Hungary has a rightwing populist government and also is an outside contender
It's not all down to the EU, but Italy is almost literally being crucified by its membership of the Euro. I mainly started to look at Italy to wind up tyson, late of this parish (Italy has terrible economy + most racist country in EU) . However, it has a gory fascination in its own right.
For the sci-fi buffs amongst us, euro membership is an economic gom jabbar. Spain & Ireland have passed the test. France is trying to, but Italy is likely going to fail.
PS In unrelated news, Saudi Arabia has renewed its fatwa against Pokemon.
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland
There are lots of Protestants in NI who have a spare Irish passport now, because it can be convenient. It hasn't eroded their self-identification one jot.
If anything, it is the reverse that is happening, ie Catholic self-identification as Irish is declining. Have a look at the excellent wiki article on how NI people answered identity questions at the last census.
In the east of NI, in several districts, more Catholics self-describe as British than Irish. And an increasingly large share of respondents self-describe as 'Northern Irish' and many of these are Catholics too.
A border poll would be won by the 'UK' side by 2:1, possibly even more.
In NI yes, like London it voted Remain but unlike Scotland there is no chance of either leaving the UK. The Republic of Ireland though is a different matter, it is already in the Eurozone and after Luxembourg and Belgium probably the most Europhile EU nation. There is no significant Eurosceptic party in Ireland
"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.
That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.
Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
Candidly, which kind of arrangement would want them?
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
Federalism wouldn't work in the British Isles - England is just too big.
For the same reason, plus the rise of Nationalism, the UK has no long-term future either.
We all know that a constitutional realignment is necessary - we are just (understandably) hesitant about actually doing something about it, because we know it will be difficult and messy.
The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
Now, you can say that this isn't immigration we wish to encourage (and that's fine), but it is also immigration that will naturally fall away. It will be harder to come to the UK, and most Anas will head back home.
This is why I suspect that EU immigration is likely to turn negative in the next couple of years. It'll be harder to come here, and many people were going to go home anyway.
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
Good word shryke. Shall note in my Scrabble file!
Is it a legal word though, Mr. Cole? In my household you wouldn't get away with it as it does not appear in the Chambers Twentieth Century Dictionary, which is, for us, the ultimate Scrabble decider.
Sadly, Mr L, just checked and it’s not legal. Shame! Up there with Faqir (which is legal) as a potentially useful word.
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
I have been arguing for a UK constitutional convention on here for a few years now. Brexit is the perfect opportunity to convene one. It won't happen though. The current set up works well enough for the powers that be.
I like the idea of federalism in the abstract, but I am not sure how it would work in practice. How do you get round the diminution of existing wealth transfers in the UK that such a system implies?
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland
I can't see the Netherlands or Denmark leaving the EU, because they are really just part of Greater Germany, and their economies are so integrated with it.
If I were to rank in order the most likely exits from the EU, I think I'd put Italy first. With Sweden most likely behind it.
Italy is in the Euro though so if it ever left there would be an economic collapse which would make BREXIT look like a picnic. Sweden and Denmark are not and if they were ever pushed to join the eurozone they may leave. Hungary has a rightwing populist government and also is an outside contender
It's not all down to the EU, but Italy is almost literally being crucified by its membership of the Euro. I mainly started to look at Italy to wind up tyson, late of this parish (Italy has terrible economy + most racist country in EU) . However, it has a gory fascination in its own right.
For the sci-fi buffs amongst us, euro membership is an economic gom jabbar. Spain & Ireland have passed the test. France is trying to, but Italy is likely going to fail.
PS In unrelated news, Saudi Arabia has renewed its fatwa against Pokemon.
The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).
Brexit is going to bring real inflation back to the UK, which is a classic mixed blessing. We've had services inflation of ~2.5% for a while, countered by goods deflation.
The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.
The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.
There are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed and just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.
It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.
PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!
I quite agree, Mr. M. Around here we have had supposedly full employment for quite a while, anyone who wants a job and can work can get a job. Yet there still seem to be a lot of apparently healthy young men wandering the streets (usually going to or from the Co-op, where a bottle of vodka costs £12 and fags can be bought for <£6 a packet). Those that are not working in mid-Sussex are either too lazy and/or unemployable as they do not have the basic life skills to do even minimum wage jobs.
As for 2 million people being too disabled to do any sort of work, I too struggle to believe the figure is accurate. However, HMG has been trying to sort the sheep from the goats in this area for the best part of a decade, with mixed results.
All in all we have a record number of people in work (probably because we have a record number of people living in the UK) and a record percentage of the workforce gainfully employed at some level. But we still have far too many people whose lives are being wasted in idleness.
The redundancy numbers are low, while there has been a very light reduction in vacancies on offer but they are still running at close to 750,000 - a record.
Average earnings up 2.3% v CPI at 0.5%. Public sector employment now <17% in spite of a slight recent increase in numbers.
If there is a downturn we will be coming down from rarely seen peaks and no one can be sure how the transient labour force from Europe will react to any change in labour market conditions.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
Very interesting question. Scots' views on relationships with England (let's call it something meaningful rather than rUK) somewhat reflect the English attitude to Europe. We know what we don't like but we don't know what we want as an alternative.
BTW the last still applies even though we have decided to Brexit.
Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:
There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen.
I thinkisn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).
But a very large proportion of those people aren't planning on staying: Ana from Spain who's serving you in Starbucks is here because (a) London is exciting, and (b) the job prospects were shit when she graduated. Realistically, with the Spanish job market dramatically improving, unless she meets a nice English boy, she'll be heading back in twelve months when living three to a room in Camberwell loses its appeal.
Now, you can say that this isn't immigration we wish to encourage (and that's fine), but it is also immigration that will naturally fall away. It will be harder to come to the UK, and most Anas will head back home.
This is why I suspect that EU immigration is likely to turn negative in the next couple of years. It'll be harder to come here, and many people were going to go home anyway.
But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.
.
...issues of cultural entropy are significant.
LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.
Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.
Sometimes one wishes one was single..
Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)
What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.
WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.
British women have residency rights here. They have no need to be nice to lecherous middle aged men :-)
The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).
It hasn't been unwound though which means money received from redemptions are recycled into the scheme.
Sure, but that's neutral in terms of monetary tightening or loosening.
Agreed, but the scheme is still open, if the Bank choose to close it then we may see asset values begin to fall. Who even knows how long QE will take to unwind, or indeed if the government won't just leave it open in perpetuity since the interest is cycled back to the Treasury.
I like the idea of federalism in the abstract, but I am not sure how it would work in practice. How do you get round the diminution of existing wealth transfers in the UK that such a system implies?
45% of Scots voted for a complete end to wealth transfers so it shouldn't be hard to get majority consent.
In the medium term Scotland will become a first-tier member of a federation. The collective choice we have is whether that federation will be the EU or a newly constituted UK.
The smaller the UK gets the dominant London is socio economically. If broadly speaking it's London's socio economic secession ( or Subliming as I call it ) is what causing this crisis then it's going to get worse.
Brexit is going to bring real inflation back to the UK, which is a classic mixed blessing. We've had services inflation of ~2.5% for a while, countered by goods deflation.
The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.
The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.
There are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed and just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.
It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.
PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!
I quite agree, Mr. M. Around here we have had supposedly full employment for quite a while, anyone who wants a job and can work can get a job. Yet there still seem to be a lot of apparently healthy young men wandering the streets (usually going to or from the Co-op, where a bottle of vodka costs £12 and fags can be bought for <£6 a packet). Those that are not working in mid-Sussex are either too lazy and/or unemployable as they do not have the basic life skills to do even minimum wage jobs.
As for 2 million people being too disabled to do any sort of work, I too struggle to believe the figure is accurate. However, HMG has been trying to sort the sheep from the goats in this area for the best part of a decade, with mixed results.
All in all we have a record number of people in work (probably because we have a record number of people living in the UK) and a record percentage of the workforce gainfully employed at some level. But we still have far too many people whose lives are being wasted in idleness.</p>
Even if you assume the worst, unemployment falling and economic inactivity falling is good news - they may be few hours, or low pay, but they still represent a significant improvement in the personal situation of thousands of families. There is further to go after that, of course, but it is a necessary first step.
Give him my good wishes and welcome to the club. I’m off to our U3a (pretty well all OAP’s) Wine Appreciation this afternoon. So much better than working!
Agreed, but the scheme is still open, if the Bank choose to close it then we may see asset values begin to fall. Who even knows how long QE will take to unwind, or indeed if the government won't just leave it open in perpetuity since the interest is cycled back to the Treasury.
I expect it will stick there in perpetuity and eventually inflated away to insignificance.
Re Ireland the government has already said it wants to preserve Free Movement - the CTA - within the British Isles, so the NI/Eire border won't be an issue.
Re immigration the government has now officially abandoned its migration target - both Rudd and May have said so.
We can begin to discern what kind of Brexit May wants. It will be EEA with some bespoke stuff, so they might call it Associate Membership. There will ostensibly be some emergency control over Free Movement, but it will rarely be used: May will rely on the natural fall in net migration (now predicted to come down to 100,000-200,000 thanks to Brexit) to take the pressure off.
We will have "access" to the Single Market in return for significant contributions. We will maintain co-operation in Erasmus, 2020, some defence, etc.
I'd be perfectly happy with this. We'll have sacrificed our say in the single market in return for much greater sovereignty in all other fields. We will have ultimate control of our own borders; even though the powers will rarely be used. We will no longer be party to the fradulent charade of EU politics.
The worst fears of Remainiacs will not be realised, the fondest dreams of Leavers will still be out of reach.
From where we are now, that would be a very good solution. But Davis and Fox will not buy it, surely.
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland
I can't see the Netherlands or Denmark leaving the EU, because they are really just part of Greater Germany, and their economies are so integrated with it.
If I were to rank in order the most likely exits from the EU, I think I'd put Italy first. With Sweden most likely behind it.
Italy is in the Euro though so if it ever left there would be an economic collapse which would make BREXIT look like a picnic. Sweden and Denmark are not and if they were ever pushed to join the eurozone they may leave. Hungary has a rightwing populist government and also is an outside contender
It's not all down to the EU, but Italy is almost literally being crucified by its membership of the Euro. I mainly started to look at Italy to wind up tyson, late of this parish (Italy has terrible economy + most racist country in EU) . However, it has a gory fascination in its own right.
For the sci-fi buffs amongst us, euro membership is an economic gom jabbar. Spain & Ireland have passed the test. France is trying to, but Italy is likely going to fail.
PS In unrelated news, Saudi Arabia has renewed its fatwa against Pokemon.
5* is certainly rising in the polls on an anti Euro agenda
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
I have been arguing for a UK constitutional convention on here for a few years now. Brexit is the perfect opportunity to convene one. It won't happen though. The current set up works well enough for the powers that be.
I like the idea of federalism in the abstract, but I am not sure how it would work in practice. How do you get round the diminution of existing wealth transfers in the UK that such a system implies?
The problem with a federal UK is that one part of it, England, makes up 85% of the federation. The first time the federation decides on a policy the English government disagrees with, that government will claim a greater legitimacy for its nation. And that will be the end of the federation.
Brexit is going to bring real inflation back to the UK, which is a classic mixed blessing. We've had services inflation of ~2.5% for a while, countered by goods deflation.
The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.
The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.
There are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed and just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.
It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.
PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!
I quite agree, Mr. M. Around here we have had supposedly full employment for quite a while, anyone who wants a job and can work can get a job. Yet there still seem to be a lot of apparently healthy young men wandering the streets (usually going to or from the Co-op, where a bottle of vodka costs £12 and fags can be bought for <£6 a packet). Those that are not working in mid-Sussex are either too lazy and/or unemployable as they do not have the basic life skills to do even minimum wage jobs.
As for 2 million people being too disabled to do any sort of work, I too struggle to believe the figure is accurate. However, HMG has been trying to sort the sheep from the goats in this area for the best part of a decade, with mixed results.
All in all we have a record number of people in work (probably because we have a record number of people living in the UK) and a record percentage of the workforce gainfully employed at some level. But we still have far too many people whose lives are being wasted in idleness.</p>
Yiou are assuming, Mr L, that all the jobs are 9-6 or thereabouts. There are quite a lot of jobs out there which are evening only, or largely weekend. Or these lads may have been sent home as “there’s nothing today”.
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.
I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
Federalism wouldn't work in the British Isles - England is just too big.
For the same reason, plus the rise of Nationalism, the UK has no long-term future either.
We all know that a constitutional realignment is necessary - we are just (understandably) hesitant about actually doing something about it, because we know it will be difficult and messy.
Why? In the US Texas and California are about as many times bigger than Vermont and Wyoming as England is bigger than Scotland and Wales
G-live: May says it is delivering the record employment today. She says the government has not given up its plans to balance the budget. Corbyn calls this “austerity”. She calls this “living within your means”, she says.
"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.
That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.
Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."
"The government must create an economy that works for everyone. Labour may be about to spent several months fighting and tearing itself apart. The Tories will bring the country back together." says May.
A strong point and I think a theme that would serve May very well to repeat.
On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.
Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?
Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.
Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.
Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...
That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.
Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland
I can't see the Netherlands or Denmark leaving the EU, because they are really just part of Greater Germany, and their economies are so integrated with it.
If I were to rank in order the most likely exits from the EU, I think I'd put Italy first. With Sweden most likely behind it.
Italy is in the Euro though so if it ever left there would be an economic collapse which would make BREXIT look like a picnic. Sweden and Denmark are not and if they were ever pushed to join the eurozone they may leave. Hungary has a rightwing populist government and also is an outside contender
I think many Danes would be most unhappy at that statement. They're joint equal with the UK on opt-outs. They mainly joined the EU in 1973 because the UK had joined.
I think if any headway is to be made against Corbyn, 'Shares my political outlook' is the one to go at and undermine, because there is a big difference between the heavily pro-EU soft-left Corbyniste 'Greens' and the hard-left anti-EU Corbyn coterie. As a trickier ask, but if we can also tease apart the subtle differences between simply wanting a different West and being anti-Western and explain why and where we think Corbyn sits the wrong side of that line.
One could also say the subversion of the EU campaign rather than facing it head on was highly unprincipled.
For all the talk of splits, plan A, both in timeline and desirability, has to be to hold the Labour party together and wrest it from Corbyn's grip. Yes, we need to build much more of a policy platform, but that is not the central battle today and we cannot let our sketchiness hamper us from the shot at making plan A work.
Brexit is going to bring real inflation back to the UK, which is a classic mixed blessing. We've had services inflation of ~2.5% for a while, countered by goods deflation.
The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.
The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.
There are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed and just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.
It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.
PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!
I quite agree, Mr. M. Around here we have had supposedly full employment for quite a while, anyone who wants a job and can work can get a job. Yet there still seem to be a lot of apparently healthy young men wandering the streets (usually going to or from the Co-op, where a bottle of vodka costs £12 and fags can be bought for <£6 a packet). Those that are not working in mid-Sussex are either too lazy and/or unemployable as they do not have the basic life skills to do even minimum wage jobs.
As for 2 million people being too disabled to do any sort of work, I too struggle to believe the figure is accurate. However, HMG has been trying to sort the sheep from the goats in this area for the best part of a decade, with mixed results.
All in all we have a record number of people in work (probably because we have a record number of people living in the UK) and a record percentage of the workforce gainfully employed at some level. But we still have far too many people whose lives are being wasted in idleness.</p>
Yiou are assuming, Mr L, that all the jobs are 9-6 or thereabouts. There are quite a lot of jobs out there which are evening only, or largely weekend. Or these lads may have been sent home as “there’s nothing today”.
About 20% of the UK workforce are employed on some flavour of shift pattern. It's a 24/7 world, or so they tell me.
I was mainly using the ONS stats to illustrate how we need a more forensic approach to public data. I'm not trying to rain on the Tory parade.
Today's figures show that there are around 3.7 million people of working age who aren't; a further 4.7 million people with less job security than we might expect (some self-employed will be fine, others hand-to-mouth). I haven't bothered to dig up the under-employed stats, neither have I looked at regional variations but I hope I've illustrated my point.
Looked a bit laboured to me. But it suffices because there is still no opposition.
I agree, there's room for improvement in May's delivery.
Someone (TSE?) said that Dave had to hold back, as his "Flashman" mode was so unattractive.
May has a real ability to deliver a kicking without coming across as conceited, which will serve her well against Corbyn.
Assuming she wants Corbyn to stay in post, she needs to tone this shit kicking down. I understand the need to stamp herself all over PMQs - but after this one...
Comments
"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.
That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.
Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/donald-trump-is-the-nominee-its-his-republican-party-now/
http://www.laweekly.com/news/donald-trumps-walk-of-fame-star-gets-a-baby-border-wall-photos-7157242
Catholics in NI are far more conservative than their Southern counterparts they haven't had 20 years of stories about previous Catholic church abuses... That's utterly destroyed the reputation of the church south of the border and many people have become more liberal as they see how the church worked the abuse it happily perpetuated
About the only thing it clearly benefits is the cost of Government borrowing when we still have a huge deficit. Funny that.
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FYI the OECD has recently announced it is suspending the publication of some of its leading indicators on the grounds that 'Brexit effects' may have distorted the results.
http://moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2016/7/13/g7-leading-indicator-rising-before-brexit-vote.html
Lots of these people will naturalize now though.
"In 1970s Leeds – where I threw my tantrums – things were different. My poor benighted budgie couldn’t even fly, and in the school holidays I bounced a tennis ball off the garage wall. If mum told me I was being spoiled – which, at her wits’ end, the poor woman occasionally did – it was a terrible, sobering badge of shame.
Being “spoiled” was much worse even than “letting the whole school down”. It meant I was selfish and out of control. Worst of all, it meant I wasn’t as mature and suave as – at 8 or 9 years of age – I wanted to think I was."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/were-spoiling-our-children-and-turning-them-into-brattish-corbyn/
This is pre-lagershed but, in my experience, they are much more fun and less priggish plus they *know what they are doing*, if you catch my drift.
Too many English girls act like something out of peep show or four weddings and a funeral, "oh, ah, I'm sorry.. Ooh, that's quite good. Oh golly.. Etc."
The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.
The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.
Out of the 1.6 million out of work, there are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed. Then there are just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.
It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.
PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/Pages/qe/qe_faqs.aspx
The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.
Until Brexit no additional QE money has been created since 2012 but as bonds have matured the money has been used to buy subsequent bonds rather than letting the market buy those bonds...
Let's start with stating the obvious - not all the 37% who voted Conservative in 2015 are actually Conservatives. Cameron was able through a combination of a decent public image and fear of a Labour/SNP Government to drag people into the Conservative camp (and I would include a large number of ex-LDs in that).
A "new" party of the centre or centre-left would not be unattractive led, say by a Dan Jarvis or similar. Unashamedly pro-EU (though that needs defining of course) and strong on social justice as well as espousing an economic policy bereft of spending excesses but at the same time continuing to help the working poor, would, in my view, have the chance of drawing in a substantial chunk of that 2015 Conservative vote.
It's all in the air at the moment and, as I can attest, leaving a party for which you have worked or campaigned for decades isn't easy. You can rationalise it by saying I haven't left the Party, the Party has left me, but it's emotionally difficult. It's also supremely liberating.
Raises a good point. Ending freedom of movement means more people naturalise and stay.
I don't think, however, those objecting to immigration as a concept prefer immigrants to stay rather than go away again.
For the sci-fi buffs amongst us, euro membership is an economic gom jabbar. Spain & Ireland have passed the test. France is trying to, but Italy is likely going to fail.
PS In unrelated news, Saudi Arabia has renewed its fatwa against Pokemon.
The GOP nomination handily settled before VP allowing for an extra top up
http://a63.tinypic.com/24wrntx.jpg
For the same reason, plus the rise of Nationalism, the UK has no long-term future either.
We all know that a constitutional realignment is necessary - we are just (understandably) hesitant about actually doing something about it, because we know it will be difficult and messy.
I like the idea of federalism in the abstract, but I am not sure how it would work in practice. How do you get round the diminution of existing wealth transfers in the UK that such a system implies?
My Dad has become a pensioner today !
As for 2 million people being too disabled to do any sort of work, I too struggle to believe the figure is accurate. However, HMG has been trying to sort the sheep from the goats in this area for the best part of a decade, with mixed results.
All in all we have a record number of people in work (probably because we have a record number of people living in the UK) and a record percentage of the workforce gainfully employed at some level. But we still have far too many people whose lives are being wasted in idleness.
Average earnings up 2.3% v CPI at 0.5%. Public sector employment now <17% in spite of a slight recent increase in numbers.
If there is a downturn we will be coming down from rarely seen peaks and no one can be sure how the transient labour force from Europe will react to any change in labour market conditions.
BTW the last still applies even though we have decided to Brexit.
In the medium term Scotland will become a first-tier member of a federation. The collective choice we have is whether that federation will be the EU or a newly constituted UK.
He asked about the piccaninnies language of Boris, May just ignored it, and he failed to press her on it,
I think May is very impressive, but is this skewering too harsh?
Channelling Mrs Thatcher there me thinks.
Someone (TSE?) said that Dave had to hold back, as his "Flashman" mode was so unattractive.
May has a real ability to deliver a kicking without coming across as conceited, which will serve her well against Corbyn.
A strong point and I think a theme that would serve May very well to repeat.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/12/10/what-the-danish-no-vote-on-justice-and-home-affairs-means-for-denmark-and-the-eu/
One could also say the subversion of the EU campaign rather than facing it head on was highly unprincipled.
For all the talk of splits, plan A, both in timeline and desirability, has to be to hold the Labour party together and wrest it from Corbyn's grip. Yes, we need to build much more of a policy platform, but that is not the central battle today and we cannot let our sketchiness hamper us from the shot at making plan A work.
I was mainly using the ONS stats to illustrate how we need a more forensic approach to public data. I'm not trying to rain on the Tory parade.
Today's figures show that there are around 3.7 million people of working age who aren't; a further 4.7 million people with less job security than we might expect (some self-employed will be fine, others hand-to-mouth). I haven't bothered to dig up the under-employed stats, neither have I looked at regional variations but I hope I've illustrated my point.