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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A staggering 54% of Corbyn supporters in the YouGov members’ poll think their man will lead them to victory

The graphic above is from the Times Redbox and has further detail from the Times YouGov Labour members’ poll. This one looks at how at how the Corbyn backers view the current party leader.

Read the full story here

Ishmael_X

I am much more staggered by the converse proposition that 46% do not think he will lead them to victory, but support him regardless. This is "support" as in "football supporter" and occurs in no other context I can think of.

nunu

Ishmael_X said:

I am much more staggered by the converse proposition that 46% do not think he will lead them to victory, but support him regardless. This is "support" as in "football supporter" and occurs in no other context I can think of.

That poll shows only 10% think he is leading them to defeat.

nunu

Mike is clearly Tory scum, to publish such nonsense. A clear plot.

Philip_Thompson

Just wrote a long reply saying basically same as Ishmael_X but lost it to "Discussion ID required". If Corbyn support was limited to those who thought he was going to win, then he'd comprehensively lose this vote.

It is those who either outright think he is going to lose, or are too polite essentially to openly say so but certainly not confident of victory who would be giving him victory.

Philip_Thompson

nunu said:

Ishmael_X said:

I am much more staggered by the converse proposition that 46% do not think he will lead them to victory, but support him regardless. This is "support" as in "football supporter" and occurs in no other context I can think of.

That poll shows only 10% think he is leading them to defeat.

No the poll shows 10% ate willing to openly admit he is leading them to defeat. There is another 34% on top of that who don't expect victory and maybe don't want to admit defeat just yet.

El_Sid

There's obviously a meme circulating in Corbynista circles that their man is an "election winner", based on "increased majorities" in the four by-elections "he" has fought (ignoring the history of Oppositions doing well in byelections), the mayor wins (despite the mayors trying to distance themselves as far as possible from Corbyn), the great success of the local elections in seat terms (ignoring that they should be 10+% ahead as an Opposition if they hope to win the GE) and Holyrood was all the fault of the Blairite Jim Murphy, even though Scottish Labour had the most Corbynite programme of all Labour with the penny on income tax etc.

But they keep repeating that, they obviously believe it - and don't have the context to know how bad the local election results were.

Also striking in that latest YouGov, how the pre May 2015 membership are 2:1 for getting rid of Corbyn, but May-Dec 2015 members are 2:1 in favour of him. I think that in itself guarantees that Labour splits - once that sea-change starts influencing PPC selection then there will be a ton of mini-Corbyns contesting seats, and they will mostly end up losing.

Time to dust off that guide to centre-left splits again?

AndyJS

Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

rkrkrk

What this also means is that people who say the Labour party members don't care about winning are wrong. A general election defeat therefore would prove the case against Corbyn and lead to . his removal.

nunu

rkrkrk said:

What this also means is that people who say the Labour party members don't care about winning are wrong. A general election defeat therefore would prove the case against Corbyn and lead to . his removal.

Hmmm not so sure it necessarilly means that. We need a question that asks should he step down if Labour loses. Many will want him to stay even if he loses badly.

williamglenn

So 5% think he's indecisive, 10% think he's decisive, and nobody thinks he doesn't share their outlook?

Danny565

"What they don’t appreciate is that the the three general elections in modern times where the polls were badly wrong the LAB position was overstated in every case. Go look at the numbers for 1970,1992, and 2015."



However, in this year's May local elections, the polls significantly understated Labour (an Opinium poll a few days before gave the Tories an 8% lead, on the day Labour won by 1%).

In any case, once again, the issue for swing voters in the Labour selectorate, like me, is not whether Corbyn is likely to lose the next general election - the issue is whether Smith, and the PLP generally, have any better ideas about how to win a general election than Corbyn does. That is still very much an open question to me, especially since we're not even a month on from the PLP showing how little feel they had for the public mood with their insistence that Labour should enthusiastically back the "Remain" campaign.

edmundintokyo

Danny565 said:

In any case, once again, the issue for swing voters in the Labour selectorate, like me, is not whether Corbyn is likely to lose the next general election - the issue is whether Smith, and the PLP generally, have any better ideas about how to win a general election than Corbyn does. That is still very much an open question to me, especially since we're not even a month on from the PLP showing how little feel they had for the public mood with their insistence that Labour should enthusiastically back the "Remain" campaign.

He does, it's to look generally competent and unthreatening and hope the current government bollockses things up. This isn't very inspiring because whether they bollocks things up is out of Labour's hands, but it's a strategy that may win, whereas the current one is as near certain to lose as these things ever get.

RobD

Danny565 said:

"What they don’t appreciate is that the the three general elections in modern times where the polls were badly wrong the LAB position was overstated in every case. Go look at the numbers for 1970,1992, and 2015."



However, in this year's May local elections, the polls significantly understated Labour (an Opinium poll a few days before gave the Tories an 8% lead, on the day Labour won by 1%).

In any case, once again, the issue for swing voters in the Labour selectorate, like me, is not whether Corbyn is likely to lose the next general election - the issue is whether Smith, and the PLP generally, have any better ideas about how to win a general election than Corbyn does. That is still very much an open question to me, especially since we're not even a month on from the PLP showing how little feel they had for the public mood with their insistence that Labour should enthusiastically back the "Remain" campaign.

Opinion polls ask how people would vote at a general election.

Polruan

Morning everyone.

Some interesting findings there but difficult to work out if the situation is really as shocking as Mike suggests in the absence of comparable data. Part of the process of politics is convincing yourself that you're going to win, or your side is going to win. Time and again we see candidates (apparently seriously) talking up a race as too close to call, "we're getting the impression on the ground we're in with a real chance" when all data suggests they're about to get a beating. Activists stay motivated to campaign by believing it's not a lost cause.

That being the case, is it really unusual for the politically active to believe their chosen candidate is going to win? I wonder how this compares to 2001 Tories, for example: certainly the activists I spent that election night with were completely convinced of their imminent triumph despite the weight of evidence to the contrary.

YellowSubmarine

Hottest ever June marks 14th month of record-breaking temperatures

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/20/june-2016-14th-consecutive-month-of-record-breaking-heat-says-us-agencies?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

SquareRoot

AndyJS said:

Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

Labour are overstated, probably by about 20% . the base will be reduced to the Momentum clique once the election is over and the party splits.. Corbyn really is the black knight.

YellowSubmarine

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

Charles

Danny565 said:

"What they don’t appreciate is that the the three general elections in modern times where the polls were badly wrong the LAB position was overstated in every case. Go look at the numbers for 1970,1992, and 2015."



However, in this year's May local elections, the polls significantly understated Labour (an Opinium poll a few days before gave the Tories an 8% lead, on the day Labour won by 1%).

In any case, once again, the issue for swing voters in the Labour selectorate, like me, is not whether Corbyn is likely to lose the next general election - the issue is whether Smith, and the PLP generally, have any better ideas about how to win a general election than Corbyn does. That is still very much an open question to me, especially since we're not even a month on from the PLP showing how little feel they had for the public mood with their insistence that Labour should enthusiastically back the "Remain" campaign.

I see Smith is being criticised for a PFE press release in 2005 where he was quoted as saying he believes in "choice" in the NHS...

Someone's done their homework...

ToryJim

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

There's none so blind as them as won't see.

It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

YellowSubmarine

The Telegraph: Britain 'can still join EU military missions after Brexit' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwmMKDuyw

YellowSubmarine

Al Jazeera English: Lebanon: Beirut protesters decry racism toward Syrians. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw5_38nyw

YellowSubmarine

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

Casino_Royale

"Whenever I get into arguments with them they’ll tell you that you can’t trust the polls because of what happened in May 2015."

Oh, the irony.

ToryJim

YellowSubmarine said:

The Telegraph: Britain 'can still join EU military missions after Brexit' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwmMKDuyw

How generous of them, maybe we won't want to.

Casino_Royale

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

There's none so blind as them as won't see.

It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

Yes, and if you live in Brighton, Islington, Hackney, or parts of Bristol - living, socialising, working, playing, chatting online on social media and talking in person at bars/cafes to only those that already agree with you - you can see how some might feel such certainty.

SouthamObserver

It will be interesting to see how Corbynistas justify their vote for Corbyn this time. Danny565's notion that Corbyn has the best ideas to win a general election is a good one. Another will be that Smith once worked for Pfizer. That, apparently is unforgiveable, as opposed to Corbyn's support for the IRA and Hamas, and his employment by an Iranian regime that sanctions the hanging of gay people and the stoning of women to death.

The simple fact is that a lot of well-off people in the Labour party are so heavily invested in Corbyn that there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds; there is no evidence that can be presented that will not be dismissed. Momentum - founded by a millionaire and run by a public schoolboy who grew up in a £7 million house and voted LibDem at the last general election - has now changed it's name to Jeremy for Labour at Companies House.

SouthamObserver

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

There's none so blind as them as won't see.

It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

This is well worth reading:

https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/

YellowSubmarine

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Telegraph: Britain 'can still join EU military missions after Brexit' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwmMKDuyw

How generous of them, maybe we won't want to.

It's the current UK Defence Secretary making the point. Which is why I posted it.

JWisemann

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

SquareRoot

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

ToryJim

Mr Observer - that was a fairly neat summation of the scene. It must be horrific being a decent Labour moderate at the moment. Even in the dark days of IDS we simply had ineptitude to deal with not ineptitude coupled with misplaced moral certainty.

SouthamObserver

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

SouthamObserver

ToryJim said:

Mr Observer - that was a fairly neat summation of the scene. It must be horrific being a decent Labour moderate at the moment. Even in the dark days of IDS we simply had ineptitude to deal with not ineptitude coupled with misplaced moral certainty.

Yep. If it's just ineptitude it can be sorted. The moral certainty is what will kill Labour off. And, in the end, what will destroy Corbynism too.

Casino_Royale

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Telegraph: Britain 'can still join EU military missions after Brexit' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwmMKDuyw

How generous of them, maybe we won't want to.

I think we will want to.

Now that we're fully sovereign (or about to be) I have no problem in strong multilateral defence cooperation with our European partners, provided it's sans EU army.

Casino_Royale

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

OldKingCole

There can a different perception of course; the Tory press is denigrating Corbyn because they think he’s going to a) win and b( put into practice what he preaches.
Which might lead to some severe wing-clipping for the Press barons and their friends.

Just saying.

YellowSubmarine

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

logical_song

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Jul 16
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (+1)
LAB: 29% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / post-Wednesday)

SquareRoot

OldKingCole said:

There can a different perception of course; the Tory press is denigrating Corbyn because they think he’s going to a) win and b( put into practice what he preaches.
Which might lead to some severe wing-clipping for the Press barons and their friends.

Just saying.

That's what dictators do.. stop the press saying nasty things about them

LOL

foxinsoxuk

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.

OldKingCole

SquareRoot said:

OldKingCole said:

There can a different perception of course; the Tory press is denigrating Corbyn because they think he’s going to a) win and b( put into practice what he preaches.
Which might lead to some severe wing-clipping for the Press barons and their friends.

Just saying.

That's what dictators do.. stop the press saying nasty things about them

LOL

The truth often hurts.

rottenborough

Morning all,

It seems it is a waste of time arguing with the faithful as they have, or have been supplied with, a pat response to every criticism. Usually to blame the media or say we have to take the fight to the Tories.

We will see what pans out in this election.

alex.

The other delusional belief you hear made regularly on comment boards is that Jeremy Corbyn's "reluctant remain" position put him far more in tune with the electorate than the rest of his party (and remember that Labour voters split 2:1 for remain so they were between a rock and a hard place). Jeremy Corbyn's EU campaign consisted of

1) Sound very unenthusiastic about the EU but still arguing for a "remain" vote
2) At every opportunity saying how much he was in favour of unrestricted immigration

The first may have put him in tune with sections of the electorate, but it was disastrous for the Remain campaign (the one he was supposed to be promoting).

The second put him in tune with virtually nobody.

SouthamObserver

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.

He will step down once the hard left's succession is assured. That will probably take a huge electoral reverse and a change to the leader nomination rules. It's worth remembering that getting 20% of 100 is a lot easier than getting 20% of 200. It is in the hard left's interests that Labour is heavily beaten at the next GE as it means fewer Labour constituencies will need to be taken control of.

PlatoSaid

AndyJS said:

Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

Kippers holding up well post Brexit. I see Arron* Banks is backing Woolfe too.

*I find this spelling of his name really annoying.

alex.

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.

I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

runnymede

Hmmm when it comes to delusional belief in victory everywhere, despite all evidence to the contrary, I would have thought the Lib Dems come along way ahead of the Labour membership.

Innocent_Abroad

SouthamObserver said:

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

There's none so blind as them as won't see.

It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

This is well worth reading:

https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/

Thanks for the link, SO. I wholly agree: Labour has become a cult. What is the point in being right all the time unless other people are wrong?

For those few Peebies who are holding on to their Party card, may I suggest they propose a motion expelling all University graduates from the Party? After all, if JC doesn't need a degree neither does anyone else ....

Casino_Royale

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

runnymede

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

The pan-nationalist front can huff and puff all they like

IanB2

SouthamObserver said:

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

There's none so blind as them as won't see.

It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

This is well worth reading:

https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/

It is worth reading, thanks. The author may be to young to remember the 1980s because the article goes adrift at the end on the history (the idea that Labour was reforming in 1981 is laughable).

Nevertheless, if you are someone who held left-wing views and had lived through the Blair era, with all the fixing, machine politics and centralised control to make sure your views stayed at the margin, then suddenly Corbyn arrives and 'your' party genuinely feels yours again, it seems self-evident to me that you'd fight hard to hang onto him? The leadership rules requiring a batch of MP nominations, when Blair made sure the MPs are all stacked against the left, are why he is not resigning. With different rules, or different MPs, Labour would probably be under McDonnell by now.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Are Corbynistas to Corbyn as the Lib Dems are to the EU?

More seriously, their zealousness [Corbynistas, not Lib Dems] may put off moderate/swing Labour members. Assuming there still are some.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

PlatoSaid

nunu said:

rkrkrk said:

What this also means is that people who say the Labour party members don't care about winning are wrong. A general election defeat therefore would prove the case against Corbyn and lead to . his removal.

Hmmm not so sure it necessarilly means that. We need a question that asks should he step down if Labour loses. Many will want him to stay even if he loses badly.

That's an interesting hypothetical, yet it's hard to put oneself into that mindset before it happens.

Look at Cameron. I went from being a long term fan to insulted Party member in a few weeks. Before the Brexit campaign got dirty - I was happy for him to stay on. Then I wanted him gone post-haste. He's now barely mentioned just a week later. I'd never expect this sequence of events.

Charles

PlatoSaid said:

AndyJS said:

Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

Kippers holding up well post Brexit. I see Arron* Banks is backing Woolfe too.

*I find this spelling of his name really annoying.

That he's worried that the Biblical spelling would put off some of his supporters?

Casino_Royale

Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

Freggles

Corbynites are going to be so confused when Labour get a shellacking in the North. "B-b-but he's a socialist!"

Charles

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.

I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

They can't.

While they are party of the Labour party, the elected leader is the face in Parliament.

The media would police having two Labour spokesman on evey issue

ThreeQuidder

PlatoSaid said:

AndyJS said:

Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

Kippers holding up well post Brexit. I see Arron* Banks is backing Woolfe too.

*I find this spelling of his name really annoying.

I worked for a few years with an Arron. He said his parents spelt it that way so that people didn't mispronounce it.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

There's none so blind as them as won't see.

It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

This is well worth reading:

https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/

It is worth reading, thanks. The author may be to young to remember the 1980s because the article goes adrift at the end on the history (the idea that Labour was reforming in 1981 is laughable).

Nevertheless, if you are someone who held left-wing views and had lived through the Blair era, with all the fixing, machine politics and centralised control to make sure your views stayed at the margin, then suddenly Corbyn arrives and 'your' party genuinely feels yours again, it seems self-evident to me that you'd fight hard to hang onto him? The leadership rules requiring a batch of MP nominations, when Blair made sure the MPs are all stacked against the left, are why he is not resigning. With different rules, or different MPs, Labour would probably be under McDonnell by now.

Absolutely. Many Labour members believe that their views are far more important than having a Labour government.

It's worth noting, though, that according to the Times poll yesterday Corbyn has lost a great deal of support among pre-2015 members and would lose if the franchise was restricted just to them. It is the support of the new members that will see him home.

IanB2

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.

I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

TBF the SNP faced a similar situation in terms of a bunch of new inexperiences MSPs, when it too control, if under a very experienced top team.

I would imagine the scenario you propose at the end must fall foul of Labour rules, somehow, and line you up for expulsion. I doubt the MPs can divorce themselves from the official party and still sit in Parliament as "Labour"?

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

It wouldn't do any harm to reaffirm that though. It kills the believe that NI has to secede and reunify for those worried about their EU rights.

Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.

Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.

PlatoSaid

Polruan said:

Morning everyone.

Some interesting findings there but difficult to work out if the situation is really as shocking as Mike suggests in the absence of comparable data. Part of the process of politics is convincing yourself that you're going to win, or your side is going to win. Time and again we see candidates (apparently seriously) talking up a race as too close to call, "we're getting the impression on the ground we're in with a real chance" when all data suggests they're about to get a beating. Activists stay motivated to campaign by believing it's not a lost cause.

That being the case, is it really unusual for the politically active to believe their chosen candidate is going to win? I wonder how this compares to 2001 Tories, for example: certainly the activists I spent that election night with were completely convinced of their imminent triumph despite the weight of evidence to the contrary.

I well remember Major in 1997 talking of winning 'only one poll that matters is on the day' da-de-da.

I looked on and cringed, but that's the game the faithful must believe in - sometimes it actually happens, look at Brexit.

MarqueeMark

Another Govt. "green energy" fiasco:

"The government's energy efficiency loan scheme had an "abysmal" take-up rate because it had not been tested with consumers, MPs have said.

The "Green Deal" ended last year after providing just £50m in 14,000 loans to households to boost energy efficiency."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36833235

The Department for Energy spent £240m on this scheme. To provide £50m.

And the other £190m went on, what?

Pulpstar

Morning all,

I see that Ben Carson hasn't become the GOP VP nominee

YellowSubmarine

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

The existing Good Friday agreement gives any resident of Northern Ireland the right to Irish and thus EU citizenship. The issue will be the hard border and the survival of the common travel area. Though that will take years to pan out even if it isn't solved. I agree a reunification referendum will be avoided at all costs as even if reunification won it would only lead to violence. The longer term issue is Scotland. If they go paramilitaries will ask if rUK really has the stomach for another 30 year war or repartition. If EEA plus is the outcome of Brexit nearly all these issues go away. My sense at the moment is the Leave vote is an antithesis and we don't know what the synthesis will be yet. But we'll see.

TOPPING

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

It wouldn't do any harm to reaffirm that though. It kills the believe that NI has to secede and reunify for those worried about their EU rights.

Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.

Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.

FYI it's pretty tricky policing the Irish border.

SouthamObserver

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.

I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

In practice, mass deselections are hard to do because they rely on active members going through a process which involves a lot of meetings - and most new members are not active. The ones that go tot he meetings tend to be stalwarts who will have a good relationship with their MPs built over a number of years. Instead, what we will see before the GE is targeted deselection campaigns against high profile Corbyn critics. Of course, mass deselection becomes a lot easier if you have far fewer MPs, so a very heavy Labour GE defeat actually suits the hard left extremely well.

Casino_Royale

PlatoSaid said:

AndyJS said:

Latest opinion poll (ICM): Con 39%, Lab 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, SNP 4%, Greens 4%.

Kippers holding up well post Brexit. I see Arron* Banks is backing Woolfe too.

*I find this spelling of his name really annoying.

Post Farage the best thing for UKIP from a partisan perspective would be for the Tories to renege on the immigration pledge and not deliver a meaningful reduction in numbers.

At the moment, I'd say that is looking quite likely.

PlatoSaid

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

The oddest religion meets science thing I ever came across was in a copy of Watchtower way back in the 80s [we'd a lot of Jehovah's Witnesses down my way].

It claimed that in the coming nuclear war, only JWs would be saved - and the post apocalyptic world would be all Kew Gardens without the greenhouses.

I guess people take solace and inspiration where they find it.

rottenborough

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

Scrapheap_as_was

I blame social media...

Mortimer

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

Well done CR!

Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

It wouldn't do any harm to reaffirm that though. It kills the believe that NI has to secede and reunify for those worried about their EU rights.

Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.

Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.

They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

TOPPING

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

Well done CR!

Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...

If anyone was seriously betting on the result they would have been up through the night backing Leave at all fancy prices.

Innocent_Abroad

MarqueeMark said:

Another Govt. "green energy" fiasco:

"The government's energy efficiency loan scheme had an "abysmal" take-up rate because it had not been tested with consumers, MPs have said.

The "Green Deal" ended last year after providing just £50m in 14,000 loans to households to boost energy efficiency."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36833235

The Department for Energy spent £240m on this scheme. To provide £50m.

And the other £190m went on, what?

Which would you prefer, Mark, civil servants or consultants?

Pong

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

But but but..

Theresa Villiers said this wouldn't happen.

And anyone who pointed out the obvious constitutional implications of brexit on NI was being "highly irresponsible"

Thanks for fucking up my country.

MarqueeMark

Corbyn isn't a political leader. He is a religious leader.

Labour has acknowledged to itself that it is shit at politics. They haven't won a majority since 1974.* So they might as well have a go at evangelism.

*Apparently they did win three times under Blair the Heretic. But those wins were nothing to do with the true Labour Party. It was just hijacked by a coalition of concensus-builders and Tory voters. So, like the central computer in Rollerball that just lost the entire 13th Century in a malfunction, that period of Labour's history no longer exists. There are consequently no lessons to be learned.

Casino_Royale

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

Well done CR!

Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...

Thanks.

Yes.. Ouch. I haven't spoken to him since. I don't think he's in a happy place at the moment.

Might be seeing him Saturday.

Alistair

Casino_Royale said:

and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

You are Cromwell and I claim my five pounds.

MarqueeMark

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

Well done CR!

Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...

Thanks.

Yes.. Ouch. I haven't spoken to him since. I don't think he's in a happy place at the moment.

Might be seeing him Saturday.

Be sure to mention that you were instrumental in his 20k loss.

On second thoughts, maybe not. NHS care is woeful at weekends...

Casino_Royale

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

It wouldn't do any harm to reaffirm that though. It kills the believe that NI has to secede and reunify for those worried about their EU rights.

Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.

Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.

FYI it's pretty tricky policing the Irish border.

The NI/EIRE border, yes, but not the island of Ireland. They are outside Schengen and an island, just like the UK, as well.

david_herdson

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Which 'received wisdoms' do you mean? And of those which were proved wrong, which were proved wrong to the left?

- 2015 GE: Con majority
- Lib Dem seats: won by Con
- EURef: Brexit/UKIP win

The only exception is Corbyn himself - but that was an *internal* party contest, the cause for which is not reflected in the wider country.

TOPPING

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

There are a lot more than nationalists that hold Irish passports in Northern Ireland. The ownership of one makes you an Irish citizen and, therefore, an EU citizen. No need to do anything on that front. The issue will be the status of the border once the UK actually leaves the EU. That's what will have to be sorted.

It wouldn't do any harm to reaffirm that though. It kills the believe that NI has to secede and reunify for those worried about their EU rights.

Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.

Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.

FYI it's pretty tricky policing the Irish border.

The NI/EIRE border, yes, but not the island of Ireland. They are outside Schengen and an island, just like the UK, as well.

True but as has been mentioned that would open up a whole can of constitutional whoopass.

PlatoSaid

SouthamObserver said:

It will be interesting to see how Corbynistas justify their vote for Corbyn this time. Danny565's notion that Corbyn has the best ideas to win a general election is a good one. Another will be that Smith once worked for Pfizer. That, apparently is unforgiveable, as opposed to Corbyn's support for the IRA and Hamas, and his employment by an Iranian regime that sanctions the hanging of gay people and the stoning of women to death.

The simple fact is that a lot of well-off people in the Labour party are so heavily invested in Corbyn that there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds; there is no evidence that can be presented that will not be dismissed. Momentum - founded by a millionaire and run by a public schoolboy who grew up in a £7 million house and voted LibDem at the last general election - has now changed it's name to Jeremy for Labour at Companies House.

TBH, in all the madness of the last year - I can't get over Seumas Milne. He was universally dismissed as a far Left nitwit for years. As was anyone citing the Morning Star as a source. Now - it's a yardstick for the Labour leader's views.

I can't think of a far Right equivalent to the MS. The Express' opposite number is The Mirror.

david_herdson

OldKingCole said:

There can a different perception of course; the Tory press is denigrating Corbyn because they think he’s going to a) win and b( put into practice what he preaches.
Which might lead to some severe wing-clipping for the Press barons and their friends.

Just saying.

That is, I expect, part of the Corbynite critique. Doesn't stop it from being delusional and based on nothing more than wishing upon a star.

Philip_Thompson

SouthamObserver said:

They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

You don't need a border control to control your border. Even after Brexit tourists will have the right to.come and visit anyway, what they may not have is the right to work. Companies will continue to be obliged to take a copy of proof of right to work in the UK. If someone travels from Eire to NI or GB then so be it. Treat them the same as any other tourist. That doesn't magically give right to work.

MarqueeMark

Innocent_Abroad said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another Govt. "green energy" fiasco:

"The government's energy efficiency loan scheme had an "abysmal" take-up rate because it had not been tested with consumers, MPs have said.

The "Green Deal" ended last year after providing just £50m in 14,000 loans to households to boost energy efficiency."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36833235

The Department for Energy spent £240m on this scheme. To provide £50m.

And the other £190m went on, what?

Which would you prefer, Mark, civil servants or consultants?

How about an effective Opposition that would crawl all over these schemes and shame the Govt. into being less shit with our money? Call me crazy, but....

TOPPING

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

You don't need a border control to control your border. Even after Brexit tourists will have the right to.come and visit anyway, what they may not have is the right to work. Companies will continue to be obliged to take a copy of proof of right to work in the UK. If someone travels from Eire to NI or GB then so be it. Treat them the same as any other tourist. That doesn't magically give right to work.

Yebbut..we don't track dates of entry do we? So how would anyone know when an EU national came here and therefore whether they have the right to work??

An £8bn new customs system??

I mean it's not as if these issues weren't known.

Innocent_Abroad

MarqueeMark said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another Govt. "green energy" fiasco:

"The government's energy efficiency loan scheme had an "abysmal" take-up rate because it had not been tested with consumers, MPs have said.

The "Green Deal" ended last year after providing just £50m in 14,000 loans to households to boost energy efficiency."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36833235

The Department for Energy spent £240m on this scheme. To provide £50m.

And the other £190m went on, what?

Which would you prefer, Mark, civil servants or consultants?

How about an effective Opposition that would crawl all over these schemes and shame the Govt. into being less shit with our money? Call me crazy, but....

Marquee Mark is crazy.

Mortimer

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, I've just totted up some rather pleasant numbers and I think the last month has been the most profitable betting ever for me.

Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.

Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.

Well done CR!

Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...

Thanks.

Yes.. Ouch. I haven't spoken to him since. I don't think he's in a happy place at the moment.

Might be seeing him Saturday.

Eek. Good luck.

Quite pleased with my own thread header record: I suggested the economy was not going to trump sovereignty and immigration arguments, that division within the parties sand disconnect between parties and the public would contribute to Leave sentiment, that Leave would win, and that it was hard to look past May for the PMship.

Cabinet and shad cabinet appointments rather overturned by events. As, in fact, was the wider impact of Chilcot. Still quite surprised by the latter. I'm also thinking my tip on a 16 GE is now looking very, very unlikely.

Still trying to get to grips with a piece on 'where the Tory party goes now'...

IanB2

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly

It is worth reading, thanks. The author may be to young to remember the 1980s because the article goes adrift at the end on the history (the idea that Labour was reforming in 1981 is laughable).

Nevertheless, if you are someone who held left-wing views and had lived through the Blair era, with all the fixing, machine politics and centralised control to make sure your views stayed at the margin, then suddenly Corbyn arrives and 'your' party genuinely feels yours again, it seems self-evident to me that you'd fight hard to hang onto him? The leadership rules requiring a batch of MP nominations, when Blair made sure the MPs are all stacked against the left, are why he is not resigning. With different rules, or different MPs, Labour would probably be under McDonnell by now.

Absolutely. Many Labour members believe that their views are far more important than having a Labour government.

It's worth noting, though, that according to the Times poll yesterday Corbyn has lost a great deal of support among pre-2015 members and would lose if the franchise was restricted just to them. It is the support of the new members that will see him home.

Until there is a credible charismatic challenger, I think he would win again whatever the franchise.

One big difference from the 1980s is that, back then, the left controlled a lot of Labour councils, particularly in London, and their antics (suitably exaggerated to make better copy) were regularly splashed across the tabloids. This helped turn a lot of the public against Labour and accelerated the pressure for reform.

This time I don't see any evidence of this - the councillors on balance appear to lean towards the moderate side, presumably because of the same grip on selections that was maintained through the Blair er?

david_herdson

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

JWisemann said:

I'd like to remind the PBerati that almost every aspect of political received wisdom in the last few years has been proven wrong. Whilst Corbyn has an uphill struggle to say the least I think it takes a brave kind of hubris to make any completely doubt-free assertions as to the future, especially when that future may involve a lot of upheaval under an already weak Tory government.

Corbyn doesn't have any policies that will attract enough voters.. its not too far a stretch to say he cannot win. Its just reality.

He has no policies.
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.

Corbyn is a disaster. He rebels against his own party's position even when leader (such as Trident) yet complains when others vote against him.

He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.

I still struggle to get my head around the promoted idea of "mass deselections". We face the prospect of Labour going into the next election with no more than half a government's worth of candidates who have even experience of being an MP, let alone any sort of Governmental experience. Where are these people going to be drawn from?

I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.

Bercow won't agree to that. If Labour MPs form some unofficial internal group, they're still part of Labour, Corbyn is still leader of Labour and as such LotO.

Alternatively, if they leave (or are kicked out of) Labour, then SDP2 is precisely what it is.

PlatoSaid

Darren on Sky "Owen Smith tells me that he's a Duracell Bunny and doesn't take Viagra"

Then wiggles his eyebrows.

asjohnstone

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

The existing Good Friday agreement gives any resident of Northern Ireland the right to Irish and thus EU citizenship. The issue will be the hard border and the survival of the common travel area. Though that will take years to pan out even if it isn't solved. I agree a reunification referendum will be avoided at all costs as even if reunification won it would only lead to violence. The longer term issue is Scotland. If they go paramilitaries will ask if rUK really has the stomach for another 30 year war or repartition. If EEA plus is the outcome of Brexit nearly all these issues go away. My sense at the moment is the Leave vote is an antithesis and we don't know what the synthesis will be yet. But we'll see.

Any resident? How does that work in practical terms, if an English person from say, Newcastle, moved to Belfast, at what point could he become an Irish citizen?

Or would one have to be born within he six counties?

YellowSubmarine

asjohnstone said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Casino_Royale said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Irish Taoiseach raises prospect of United Ireland after Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwoPSfuiw

I can't see such a vote being called, let alone being carried.

Neither can I at the moment. It's interesting though the speed with which Irish politicians have conceed the point though. It's gone from Sinn Fein to the official opposition to the PM in under a month.

I think such a vote would be very dangerous, in the event reunification was narrowly carried.

Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.

One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.

The existing Good Friday agreement gives any resident of Northern Ireland the right to Irish and thus EU citizenship. The issue will be the hard border and the survival of the common travel area. Though that will take years to pan out even if it isn't solved. I agree a reunification referendum will be avoided at all costs as even if reunification won it would only lead to violence. The longer term issue is Scotland. If they go paramilitaries will ask if rUK really has the stomach for another 30 year war or repartition. If EEA plus is the outcome of Brexit nearly all these issues go away. My sense at the moment is the Leave vote is an antithesis and we don't know what the synthesis will be yet. But we'll see.

Any resident? How does that work in practical terms, if an English person from say, Newcastle, moved to Belfast, at what point could he become an Irish citizen?

Or would one have to be born within he six counties?

https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/about-northern-ireland < This suggests I'm wrong. It's birth not residency.

PlatoSaid

YellowSubmarine said:

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Telegraph: Britain 'can still join EU military missions after Brexit' http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwmMKDuyw

How generous of them, maybe we won't want to.

It's the current UK Defence Secretary making the point. Which is why I posted it.

There's a lot of *making nice* right now - I seriously doubt we'll follow through on it.

malcolmg

Innocent_Abroad said:

SouthamObserver said:

ToryJim said:

YellowSubmarine said:

I've several close personal friends who are Corbynistas. It really is astonishing. There is absolutely nothing you can say to them to explain how badly Corbyn is performing. They are absolutely certain he represents a " silent majority ' of people who've given up voting, who don't answer polls and are going to win 2020 for them. It's a delusional version of the " Labour weren't left wing enough in 2010 " belief. I'm bewildered by it. The only other context in life I've encountered this is when I was an evangelical Christian. Which is why I quite quickly stopped being an evangelical Christian.

There's none so blind as them as won't see.

It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.

This is well worth reading:

https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/

Thanks for the link, SO. I wholly agree: Labour has become a cult. What is the point in being right all the time unless other people are wrong?

For those few Peebies who are holding on to their Party card, may I suggest they propose a motion expelling all University graduates from the Party? After all, if JC doesn't need a degree neither does anyone else ....

THat makes SNP and Labour both cults now, what phobia do posters here have about opposition that they cry cult every time someone/something is popular. Tories struggle to get past being a Junta but sure they aspire to being a cult.

PlatoSaid

Charles said:

Danny565 said:

"What they don’t appreciate is that the the three general elections in modern times where the polls were badly wrong the LAB position was overstated in every case. Go look at the numbers for 1970,1992, and 2015."



However, in this year's May local elections, the polls significantly understated Labour (an Opinium poll a few days before gave the Tories an 8% lead, on the day Labour won by 1%).

In any case, once again, the issue for swing voters in the Labour selectorate, like me, is not whether Corbyn is likely to lose the next general election - the issue is whether Smith, and the PLP generally, have any better ideas about how to win a general election than Corbyn does. That is still very much an open question to me, especially since we're not even a month on from the PLP showing how little feel they had for the public mood with their insistence that Labour should enthusiastically back the "Remain" campaign.

I see Smith is being criticised for a PFE press release in 2005 where he was quoted as saying he believes in "choice" in the NHS...

Someone's done their homework...

Teh interwebs has certainly made it a lot easier to dig up awkward stuff. Derek Draper was totally undone by Wayback Machine.

I still can't get over Guido flying out to Berkeley to expose him as a giant fibber. That whole saga was very funny. 2009 - it doesn't feel that long ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1So2RlPjjfY

SouthamObserver

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

They can work, but what you suggest will mean putting controls at a border that is currently open so making a lot of the everyday travel that is done for work, commerce and leisure a lot more difficult. That is the fear, anyway. A solution to this is what will be needed. One possibility may be to leave the Irish border open but to create a de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would certainly be a lot easier to police and a lot less inconvenient, but constitutionally it would be huge.

You don't need a border control to control your border. Even after Brexit tourists will have the right to.come and visit anyway, what they may not have is the right to work. Companies will continue to be obliged to take a copy of proof of right to work in the UK. If someone travels from Eire to NI or GB then so be it. Treat them the same as any other tourist. That doesn't magically give right to work.

I thought that one of the reasons we wanted to take back control was to stop terrorists getting into the country. If we are not going to police our borders how does that work?