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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for May ahead of the 2nd round of MP voting –
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for May ahead of the 2nd round of MP voting – bad news for Gove
There’s a new national phone poll out from Survation which has CON 36%, LAB 32%, UKIP 12% and LD 9%. The poll also asked favourability questions about the five who were the Tory leadership race until Tuesday evening. The figures are in the chart above and show Theresa May in a totally dominating position with Michael Gove trailing badly.
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsoms-cv-prompts-new-questions-about-career
Although there is one thing I can state: he's no Frank Underwood.
Boles tied with Jenkins for "least helpful supporter" in the campaign?
She would beat Gove by an absolute landslide with the members - the Survation poll said over 50% and I would think it would actually be nearer 60% - ie about 80-20.
Why on earth they want to take a risk on allowing Leadsom to build momentum and then the members doing a "Corbyn" I can't imagine.
They will kick themselves if they allow Leadsom into the Final and she then goes on to win.
Have you and Cameron's cronies learned nothing from the EU Referendum fiasco? In the age of social media people are not idiots. If you treat them as fools prepare to look foolish.
The ballot should be of the two best candidates for the job. Period.
We trusted UK voters over BREXIT, time to trust Con members over the Premiership.
That said I fear a Leadsome administration will be a disaster as she so clearly does not enjoy the support of the HoC. But I am looking forward to the IDS lectures on "loyalty"!
Somehow after seeing Labour end up with Corbyn,it must be odds on that the membership will do the sensible thing and chose the safe option. Mrs May.
Grant Shapps, does have a point, I just wonder if a 3 week postal ballot period is sufficient time for the votes to arrive from the more obscure and far flung high commissions and colonies. According to my great aunt Maud, a jar of marmalade took months to arrive in Gaborone, Botswana, but that was 1927, perhaps things have improved.
And as a result 65 million people may have her as the leader of their country. It's great to be so free at last and to have taken back control.
May 169 .. Leadsom 51 .. Gove 28
Voting is 9am - 4pm .. Result around 4.30pm
What a splendid writer. (the commentary moved me to tears too. What an old softy)
We're not recruiting thousands of UKIP members, the cut off for voting was three months *before* Cameron resigned, deliberately to stop the infiltration that led to Corbyn.
Don't be surprised if the MPs put Gove on the ballot either, just to reinforce the point to the members.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/06/tony-blair-did-not-bewitch-us-into-backing-war-in-iraq-we-let-hi/
May supporters keep Leadsom off ballot; Leadsom cries foul, isn't listened to, and decamps to UKIP, perhaps with one or two other MPs. She then becomes UKIP's new leader.
Meanwhile. Carswell sobs quietly on the seawall at Jaywick.
The new UKIP leader could be from anywhere in that broad coalition: he or she just needs to be able to appeal to the rest.
Which is why if the mythical Obama did appear from nowhere, things would probably change, provided s/he has a solution to some of their strategic and political challenges as well.
And if enough people in the country agree with you she gets sacked. You couldn't that with Juncker or Schultz or Merkel so it's a definite improvement
The alternative is not to go to the electorate at all and for Leadsom and Gove to withdraw - but if there is to be a members' vote, it needs to be a meaningful one.
We were lied to.
Robin Cook, Charles Kennedy (and the libdems) and Ken Clarke are the only ones who come out of this with credit.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/watch-charles-kennedys-legendary-speech-8357792
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robin-cooks-powerful-resignation-speech-8357795
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/historic_moments/newsid_8194000/8194251.stm
Sticking with Corbyn only makes sense if you believe he is genuinely best placed to deliver the best possible outcome for Labour at the next GE. I don't think that any such argument is credible.
If Cameron had done the same, we probably wouldn't be in the position of now needing a new leader.
Should Labour figure how to sold a problem like Jeremy in the next year or so the Tories are in deep shit in that case, they will lose seats to the kippers, and have created a terribly bad stink around their leadership generally from all the lies and evasions around the referendum campaign. With a continuity Cameron leader, if the economy does okay they will get a kicking because of all the bullshit about armageddon, if it does badly they will get a kicking because they are at the helm, lose lose.
She then, no doubt for noble reasons, decided to run for parliament and obviously felt she needed to embellish her past when in fact there is no shame in a solid but mediocre career outside Parliament.
An early and naive misjudgment but then who can blame her; she probably thought she would languish happily on the back benches with little scrutiny and never in a million years thought she would be running for Party leader and PM.
The full-withdrawal solution (which was what both leave campaigns campaigned on) will be disastrous to the economy, and cost the jobs not just of the hated migrants, but of many people who believed UKIP when they said it was the answer.
UKIP *may* get hurt as people realise that migrants were not the cause of every problem facing the country.
As an aside, I see the EU becoming increasingly popular over the years post-leave, with the caveat that depends on the EU not failing itself.
Never mind the cleverness of the members. If these potential Titans of the different wings of the party a) existed, b) were clever and c) bought your story, then all they had to do was gather the nominations and stand. Instead they went to tremendous trouble to choreograph hourly resignations spread over two days, then realise they hadn't a clue what to do next, then start talking about putting up some no-hoper like Angela Eagle, bigging her up as "strong and resolute" the very day after she had burst into tears on live television, then realise this strategy was doomed, then slink away in humiliation. So the vast majority of this PLP to whom you look for salvation have just demonstrated to everyone else that they have not a clue.
I too am amazed.
There may well be lots of good work going on behind the scenes, but no visible Labour figure has articulated a coherent vision of what a centre left party stands for, and what it is going to for working people in the world of globalisation and austerity, and critically, how it is going to pay for it.
There is no easy tax gain left to generate sacks of cash to pour over worthy causes, and in any case the public are not going to wear it after the Brown years. Wealth is concentrate in the hands of highly mobile business and elites, and if we are in the EEA with "freedom of capital" they are in an environment that positively encourages them to minimise their tax liabilities.
Always knew the 45 minute claim was bullshit.
With hindsight was an expensive, counterproductive and wrong move - so well done to all those who opposed at the time. Blair misleading the house was unforgiveable and has eroded alot of trust - the ends do not always justify the means.
Leadsom
Unknown (all): 40%, Con voters: 30%
Don't know, but have heard of. All: 19%, Con voters: 21%
May
Unknown (all): 8%, Con voters: 3%
Don't know, but have heard of. All: 16%, Con voters: 6%
Leadsom can turn her favourables around very quickly. She's just unknown.
My 3 reasons were
1) It would distract from completing the job in Afghanistan
2) We weren't committing enough troops to execute the invasion to execute it quickly and with minimal allied casualties
3) We weren't commiting anywhere near enough troops to occupy the country and rebuild it.
I was right on 1, very wrong on 2 and terrifyingly right on 3
If May goes for full EEA, opts into everything in sight, and accepts Freedom of Movement without even the pretence of fighting over it, surrounded by a chorus of adoring city types and gloating remainers its going to be an electoral disaster and the kippers will pick up 10% in the polls for sitting at home drinking tea.
"One is a spineless reptile that spits venom... the other is a snake"
http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/remembering-what-the-sun-said-about-charles-kennedys-stance-on-the-iraq-war--ZkzlMM2PUrZ
What a despicable rag - on the wrong side of history again.
That being said, he's clearly the second best candidate after May. He has a long cabinet career, he's a political centrist, he is a good administrator, he's intelligent and he runs a slick media operation. The fact he's an arrogant and unpleasant dogmatist with a record of backstabbing and demonisation means he's a weak candidate overall, but that's not to ignore his very real strengths.
Leadsom, by contrast, had an unexciting career in the City, a record of solid but uninspiring performances on the backbenches, and nil impact as a junior minister. She's only on the ballot at all because she's (a) a woman and (b) once did OK as one-third of a debating team on live TV, a performance she has been unable to match since. She's also been proven to be a liar.
So I think actually if we're judging on merit the final two should be May vs Gove. It probably won't be cause other factors will come into play. But it should be. And that has nothing to do with tactical voting or wanting May to win, which she will against either of these two.
EDIT - my favourite along those lines was a photograph of a not-very-popular Dean in front of the organ case of his Cathedral. The caption read, 'the cathedral's mighty organ, with a large musical instrument.'
The Labour Party of the PLP is dead. And they killed it themselves. Those handful of MPs with some romanticised notion of fair play, that all wings of the party should have a voice in the leadership election. Margaret Beckett, Jo Cox, a tiny number of others. They looked at poor struggling Jeremy and his worthy but hopeless cause and went, "aw, bless...."
And then saw their party eaten from the inside.
Maybe this is why Plaid Llafur have never been very good at politics - just five elections with a majority of more than 10 in 124 years, three of them under Blair.
The Conservative members are, well, Conservative. They're not going to vote for a complete unknown, especially not when in power and choosing a Prime Minister.
PR would be good - the Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP all deserve more representation in parliament. But it's not me you need to convince and I doubt it is on May's agenda.