I can say with absolute certainty that if you give somebody a job, and their heart is not in its key element, they will underperform and disappoint.
Which is why it should be May, not Leadsom as PM.
the key element of the job is not Brexit. It is everything else a PM has to deal with.
I do think PM May could appoint Leadsom as Minister for Brexit. Apart from all the baggage that is now emerging
For all our sake's lets hope Leadsom is kicked off the ballot today. This is no time for someone of so little political experience. It is frankly ridiculous that the Tory party are even considering it as an option.
You really don't like democracy do you?
What would be undemocratic about Gove getting to the final two instead? I'd prefer leadsome over him, but has been pointed out he has many strengths as a candidate over her, suggesting leadsome is so awful a candidate she should lose and not be offered to the members may be right it may be wrong, but it's not undemocratic. She woukd have lost a ballot of her peers and, conspiracies aside, it's possible that would be their genuine view. Granted, it might be due to politicking, but she's not so strong that voting against her must be a dirty trick.
In full Peter Snow "just a bit of fun" mode, in the first round each candidate lifted their declared numbers by around half from undeclared MP's.
From the latest Sky News figures of M 169 .. L 51 .. G 28 and 82 undeclared - almost 25% of the electorate. With diminishing undeclared MP's perhaps each candidate might lift their figures by about one third :
May 225 .. Leadsom 68 .. Gove 37
Should I get the family ermine out?
Anything close to that and Leadsom should wave a white flag. Labour have shown what happens to a party leader without parliamentary support.
Being shallow myself, I can let you know that there are certain politicians who will never be elected PM because they look "wrong".
Alec-Douglas Home was an obvious one, as was Michael Foot. Unfortunately, despite his other talents, Robin Cook was in this group. More recently, we have had Ed Miliband.
The latest incarnation is Michael Gove, so putting him in the final two would risk disaster at the 2020 GE for the Tories, as Jezza will no longer be LOTO.
You are all welcome to this priceless political prediction.
@Platosaid Are you saying the Tory civil war on europe won't ever end ?
I expected a certain level of denial/bargaining over the result - but we're almost two weeks on and a lot of Remainers with power/influence believe they can still circumvent it with lawyerly language or fixes or feigning negotiations a la Cameron.
It's a very EU-style mindset. And it will backfire all over the Tories - MPs, members and voters. The levels of distrust are already sky high. It won't take much backsliding/weaseling to set the whole debate alight.
How much debate depends on whether there is backsliding on promises of vote leave, or on Brexit. Only a few fools have suggested the latter and may certainly won't, but the former is more achievable, even if provides opportunities for UKIP in particular. Mays problem is if not committing to voteLeave demands which she hid the country ever committed to (we can presume much of what they said is popular, but the question committed no one to it) gets perceived as backsliding on Brexit itself. That some see a path to not leaving under may wil not help her, even though I'm sure she won't foster it since even if she would like to remain, the party management let alone voters would be impossible.
So it comes down to what kind of Brexit each will offer, they will need to be clear, and what Tory members want from Brexit. If they dislike Mays offer enough, leadsome can win this.
They can offer 25 different varieties of Brexit if they want but they need to remember that what Britain will get is what gets agreed with the EU and other parties. So the ability to develop the necessary strategy and alliances and carry out the necessary negotiations is key. Any fool can make promises. It's having a credible plan - or being seen as a credible person able to think ahead - to get from "A" to "B" that is what's needed.
If the Tories choose a leader on the basis that they were able to repeat the phrase "Take back control" 34 times without falling over their shoelaces God help us all..........
A good plan and ability to execute it is the most important thing right now. Many Tory members may either disagree and go for leaver purity and eagerness, or they may genuinely believe leadsome or gove have the best and most executable plan. Now, I think they would be wrong, and may as a fence sitter will probably be the best a hashing out a deal, but it isn't me that needs convincing, and as we know this debate can come down to raw emotion.
The Tories vet their candidates as well as Labour vet their's.
The article claims it’s her brother in Law who owns the shares, not Leadsom herself.
Politicians should be judged by their own actions and the company they keep, IMHO, not who their siblings choose to marry.
A fair point save for where the politician in question chooses to be (at the last revision) the marketing director for their in-law's company. At that point, who they involve themselves with as part of their work is a relevant consideration. It goes to their judgment, to whether they asked themselves - or even thought of asking themselves - the question: "I can do this. But should I?"
So that later they are fully transparent about what they did and why. Full transparency is something which appears not be be a Leadsom forte, I have to say, and it is one reason why last weekend I posted on here that my investigator's antennae were twitching and that there was something that did not add up about what she was saying about her career in the City.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
In full Peter Snow "just a bit of fun" mode, in the first round each candidate lifted their declared numbers by around half from undeclared MP's.
From the latest Sky News figures of M 169 .. L 51 .. G 28 and 82 undeclared - almost 25% of the electorate. With diminishing undeclared MP's perhaps each candidate might lift their figures by about one third :
May 225 .. Leadsom 68 .. Gove 37
Should I get the family ermine out?
Anything close to that and Leadsom should wave a white flag. Labour have shown what happens to a party leader without parliamentary support.
I hope you are not suggesting Conservative leadership rules are less than perfect. Is there a case for reversing the final two stages so the parliamentary party votes for the winner from a shortlist selected by the party in the country?
That paradox is one of my favourites. The EU Is a huge and bullying supranational body riding roughshod over member states' interests, especially the UK's; but is on the verge of falling apart any minute and especially once the UK has left.
To some extent it's perception vs reality.
The EU is often not as strong as some people - especially its detractors - think, although in some areas it is. Worse, some in the EU *want* it to be that powerful everywhere, so they play into those perceptions.
So it is simultaneously strong and weak.
Add in the fact it's an easy whipping boy to blame for failures that are not always the EU's fault, and it's easy to see how the EU could fail as more countries blame for everything gets shifted onto it, especially by politicians wanting to avoid blame for their mistakes.
On the other hand, the EU seems to be oblivious to how people feel about it. Via it's tin ear, the EU is as much responsible for Brexit as Cameron and UKIP.
May supporters keep Leadsom off ballot; Leadsom cries foul, isn't listened to, and decamps to UKIP, perhaps with one or two other MPs. She then becomes UKIP's new leader.
Meanwhile. Carswell sobs quietly on the seawall at Jaywick.
I have issues with Leadsom such as her barely passing acquaintance with honesty, her inexperience and the cultish behaviour of her groupies. UKIP she is not though.
But what is UKIP? They seem to have managed to break the traditional landscape of UK politics, as have the SNP in Scotland, by appealing to voters of both the left and right. The new UKIP leader will have to try to maintain that same disparate group together. It's possible, as the SNP have shown.
The new UKIP leader could be from anywhere in that broad coalition: he or she just needs to be able to appeal to the rest.
Key to the SNP's success was not only Labour's rottenness, but also it's own tack to the left. What began as essentially a right wing nationalist party became one whose rhetoric was credibly social democratic. To win in Labour heartlands - which are undoubtedly up for grabs with Corbyn in charge - UKIP needs a credible tale to tell on public spending, the NHS and redistributive policies. Being tough on immigration is not going to be enough.
We should also factor in the SNP's ground game, which UKIP cannot match in equivalent seats in England and Wales. Labour's so-called electoral castles are built on just as rotten bases with no meaningful campaigning activity having taken place for years if not decades but unless UKIP can reach out to the voters on the doorsteps as well as the airwaves, they'll not make the same kind of inroads.
Yep - the SNP did the hard slog and built a solid base. There's no sign yet that UKIP is prepared to do that. It may be one reason they find it hard to hold onto council seats they win.
UKIP are roughly in the position the SNP were in c. 1992.
In terms of electoral success, perhaps. There is a crucial difference in that UKIP appears to have already achieved its primary objective whereas the SNP hadn't even a Scottish parliament in 1992.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I think she may be in tune with 25% of Tory voters who voted on the basis of immigration primarily, and some of the 20% who voted on both immigration and sovereignty. The rest probably aren't too enamoured with the idea of another IDS at the helm. I'm putting my straw poll out again over the weekend so we'll see what kind of support she has.
May supporters surely now know that if they get Gove into the Final then May has won.
Why on earth they want to take a risk on allowing Leadsom to build momentum and then the members doing a "Corbyn" I can't imagine.
They will kick themselves if they allow Leadsom into the Final and she then goes on to win.
Everything about that makes me want to vomit.
Have you and Cameron's cronies learned nothing from the EU Referendum fiasco? In the age of social media people are not idiots. If you treat them as fools prepare to look foolish.
The ballot should be of the two best candidates for the job. Period.
Sympathise with that but the timetable is set. Not much tends to happen in August so I'm fairly comfortable with September. Mass postal ballots of members are difficult to do in ultra short timescales.
While "Not much tends to happen in August" I fear this August will be different....drifting is not a safe option at the moment!
An awful lot of voters will be on holiday in Europe in July and August - 20/30% lighter in £/€s compared to last summer.
And about the same as summer 2013.
Oh dear - you think that's the view they'll take.
It's certainly the view that they should take. Anybody who has travelled to the eurozone even once a year for the last five years has seen big swings in exchange rates and this isn't out of the ordinary.
People weren't worried when it was 1.38 though, since they didn't have €14 million export contracts
The need for exports is always trotted out to justify devaluing your currency - let's see how much they grow after this boost and how much imports of staples like oil fall away. Devaluation is a classic cover for companies with inefficient operations who are happy for domestic consumers to take the hit for their own failings.
If the fall in Sterling were sustained, there would be considerable import substitution, tourism (where we have a big deficit) being an obvious example.
Yay - just think about the boost that could bring to illegal immigrants - but never mind we're so good at getting rid of them. Oh...
A remarkable interview earlier with Tony Blair on Today. John Humphrys asks him whether he asks God for forgiveness for what he did in Iraq. . Blair just can't bring himsel to admitt what he did was wrong. Not a mistake in hindsight that is understandable. For Blair it has to be a difference of opinion.
Who'd achieve the best Brexit deal for Britain? I can't think it would be May, because her heart won't be in it.
The "deal" Leadsom pitched in the campaign is fantasy. She would fail utterly own her own terms. Meanwhile the country would be even further destabilised.
I do not claim any special knowledge of Andrea's negotiating skills.
I can say with absolute certainty that if you give somebody a job, and their heart is not in its key element, they will underperform and disappoint.
But the job the PM now faces is to get the possible post-Brexit deal for the whole of the UK not to refight the referendum campaign. In addition to all the other matters the PM will have to deal with.
Given what we have learnt about Leadsom I see no evidence that she is the right person to do that. What I do see is a load of people projecting their desires onto a largely empty suit on the back of an untruthful CV and the ability to string a sentence together in a debate.
i'm not even sure she would be any good on the Brexit negotiating team. What you want on such a team are people with a clear-sighted understanding of the detail, the strategy, our leverage, our weak points and how best to deploy these to get the best possible deal, while accepting that there will necessarily be trade-offs. Oh - and the feline ability to build the necessary diplomatic alliances in order to get such a deal. Being a true believer is irrelevant to this. It's the skills which are important not the level of faith.
This is a woman who couldn't even anticipate an obvious question about her tax returns let alone come up with a coherent answer for more than 5 minutes. And you want to let her loose to negotiate with 27 other states over the finer points of data protection laws post-Brexit, something which may not be sexy but which has implications for lots of businesses and where they base themselves.
I'm not guaranteeing that Leadsome would be a successful Brexit negotiator---I don't know.
But for sure, May will disappoint.
If there is a part of anybody's job that they're not interested in, they always fail at it. Most of the time, if they get enough other things right, it doesn't much matter. But seeing as Brexit is by far the biggest component of the next PMs life, it will matter a lot. Brexit is squarely in the lap of the gu'nor (the PM) not the clerks. May might prefer to 'sub' the job out to somebody else, but she can't.
Whoever is appointed PM or CoE will have an easy ride. If the economy tanks - blame it on Brexit. If it does well - you're a genius.
Poor old Dave and George, on the wrong side of history.
Part of the reason I want a Leaver as PM is that I want us Leavers to take responsibility for what happens. But if May gets it, there can be no more sniping from the sidelines from Tory Remainers. They will own the process now.
Voting starts shortly in the next PM contest or as Leadsom says her continuing administration since she took over from Chamberlain in May 1940 and saw us through WWII with speeches like this :
"Even though large tracts of the continent and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the EU and all the odious apparatus of Junker rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in Brussels, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old."
May supporters surely now know that if they get Gove into the Final then May has won.
Why on earth they want to take a risk on allowing Leadsom to build momentum and then the members doing a "Corbyn" I can't imagine.
They will kick themselves if they allow Leadsom into the Final and she then goes on to win.
Everything about that makes me want to vomit.
Have you and Cameron's cronies learned nothing from the EU Referendum fiasco? In the age of social media people are not idiots. If you treat them as fools prepare to look foolish.
The ballot should be of the two best candidates for the job. Period.
In an ideal world yes, but that ship sailed. The final ballot will feature a decent shout for PM and one of two people who are egregiously unsuitable. It's probably why there are calls for a coronation.
If we aren't to have a coronation better to bring the ballot forward - September is too long to wait.
Sympathise with that but the timetable is set. Not much tends to happen in August so I'm fairly comfortable with September. Mass postal ballots of members are difficult to do in ultra short timescales.
While "Not much tends to happen in August" I fear this August will be different....drifting is not a safe option at the moment!
An awful lot of voters will be on holiday in Europe in July and August - 20/30% lighter in £/€s compared to last summer.
And about the same as summer 2013.
Oh dear - you think that's the view they'll take.
It's certainly
The need for exports is always trotted out to justify devaluing your currency - let's see how much they grow after this boost and how much imports of staples like oil fall away. Devaluation is a classic cover for companies with inefficient operations who are happy for domestic consumers to take the hit for their own failings.
If the fall in Sterling were sustained, there would be considerable import substitution, tourism (where we have a big deficit) being an obvious example.
The economic model of Greece is not one to be emulated.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
May supporters surely now know that if they get Gove into the Final then May has won.
Why on earth they want to take a risk on allowing Leadsom to build momentum and then the members doing a "Corbyn" I can't imagine.
They will kick themselves if they allow Leadsom into the Final and she then goes on to win.
Everything about that makes me want to vomit.
Have you and Cameron's cronies learned nothing from the EU Referendum fiasco? In the age of social media people are not idiots. If you treat them as fools prepare to look foolish.
The ballot should be of the two best candidates for the job. Period.
In an ideal world yes, but that ship sailed. The final ballot will feature a decent shout for PM and one of
If we aren't to have a coronation better to bring the ballot forward - September is too long to wait.
Sympathise with that but the timetable is set. Not much tends to happen in August so I'm fairly comfortable with September. Mass postal ballots of members are difficult to do in ultra short timescales.
While "Not much tends to happen in August" I fear this August will be different....drifting is not a safe option at the moment!
An awful lot of voters will be on holiday in Europe in July and August - 20/30% lighter in £/€s compared to last summer.
And about the same as summer 2013.
Oh dear - you think that's the view they'll take.
It's certainly
The need for exports is always trotted out to justify devaluing your currency - let's see how much they grow after this boost and how much imports of staples like oil fall away. Devaluation is a classic cover for companies with inefficient operations who are happy for domestic consumers to take the hit for their own failings.
If the fall in Sterling were sustained, there would be considerable import substitution, tourism (where we have a big deficit) being an obvious example.
The economic model of Greece is not one to be emulated.
Nobody's advocating that.
Although, Greece obviously should have exited the euro, and let the Drachma fall. Unemployment would now be much lower, and fewer of the country's young people would have emigrated.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
If Mrs May ends up with 200 or more MPs, then Dave's Premiership ends tomorrow.
There will be momentum for a coronation.
I would prefer it went to the members but we are where we are.
Well, I agree and respect you for that view. I fear the siren calls for coronation have been there all week and the ruthless undermining of both Leadsom and Gove bears witness to a seeming desire to wish the whole thing away and get back to running the country.
I get that, I really do.
The point is though part of Cameron's rationale behind the Referendum was to lance the boil as someone put it and end thirty years of debilitating internecine warfare within the party and the only thing it hasn't done is achieve that.
Everyone was saying before 23/6 that if the country voted REMAIN narrowly, the next Conservative leader (Johnson as it seemed at the time) would be a LEAVE supporter.
Paradoxically, the opposite has happened and the Conservatives will be led by a REMAIN supporter helped into power by the dissident Cameroons as an act of revenge for the fallen leader. Just as the Thatcherites resolved Heseltine would never wear the crown, so Gove is finding out the truth of how politics really works.
May will have the onerous job of disengaging us from the EU while trying to satisfy those who a) never wanted us to leave at all and b) those who want to leave much more than she might or her backers do.
To me, May has all the warmth of a chilly January morning in Novosibirsk but I imagine there will be a battery of interviews and newspaper pieces to convince us she's a normal human being . I find her social conservatism and authoritarianism profoundly disturbing and I think she will be the most dictatorial Prime Minister since Thatcher.
I suspect some of those who voted for Cameron last year won't find it anywhere near as easy to vote for May but in the absence (at present) of meaningful opposition, that doesn't matter,
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
Hate.. thats a very strong word.. why do they HATE her?
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
Hate.. thats a very strong word.. why do they HATE her?
Same reason they hate Johnson, Gove, etc. Remainer Derangement Syndrome.
If Mrs May ends up with 200 or more MPs, then Dave's Premiership ends tomorrow.
There will be momentum for a coronation.
I would prefer it went to the members but we are where we are.
The Nato summit starts tomorrow so perhaps we could leave Dave in place till the end of the week, especially as the new PM will have no defence or foreign policy experience (unless you count offshore tax havens).
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
Hate.. thats a very strong word.. why do they HATE her?
Same reason they hate Johnson, Gove, etc. Remainer Derangement Syndrome.
This is ridiculous, hate isn't the issue. The issue is that we face a national crisis, and this is no time to be dropping in as prime minister a largely untested and largely unknown junior minister who appears to have external backing from beyond the right of the party and a somewhat loose approach to the truth.
Being shallow myself, I can let you know that there are certain politicians who will never be elected PM because they look "wrong".
Alec-Douglas Home was an obvious one, as was Michael Foot. Unfortunately, despite his other talents, Robin Cook was in this group. More recently, we have had Ed Miliband.
The latest incarnation is Michael Gove, so putting him in the final two would risk disaster at the 2020 GE for the Tories, as Jezza will no longer be LOTO.
You are all welcome to this priceless political prediction.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
Hate.. thats a very strong word.. why do they HATE her?
Same reason they hate Johnson, Gove, etc. Remainer Derangement Syndrome.
You seem to be suffering from derangement yourself. I don't think people hate for that sort of reason, actively dislike possibly but hate?? naaah
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
Leadsom has rubbished herself with the dodgy CV, overstating her role in Barings and her late conversion to Brexit. What I would find truly hilarious is if she is what Ken says and decides to dump all of the immigration rhetoric if she gets voted in and walks the same path we expect of May and takes us into the EEA/EFTA.
"What to make of it all? An honest plea for understanding from a broken man? Or a performance, an immaculately executed impersonation of one?
This is his trouble. If people don’t believe he was honest in taking the country to war, they won’t believe he’s honest in anything. He will always be under suspicion, no matter what he says, and no matter how he sounds when he says it. That suspicion will be with him, whatever."
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
But how do you get 'personal warmth' from that? Especially as she seems to be rather untruthful on many things.
Are you sure the warmth you feel isn't just because she (currently) agrees with you on the EU?
If there is no members vote, you need a general election. She has to be elected beyond the MPs in some fashion.
Since WWII none of the six Prime Ministers who have succeeded in term have opted for a General Election.
The Conservatives had a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum and abide by the result. There is no requirement for PM May to go to the country.
She may want to: it might be in a few months that the stars are perfectly aligned: UKIP leaderless and reorganising their position post-Brexit vote; Labour hopelessly split and in civil war; and the Lib Dems yet to fully capitalise.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing. All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
I favour Leadsom but for the reasons Sean F sets out if Mrs May has such a large number of MPs backing her, e.g. 100 more than Mrs Leadsom, then it would be better to let the MPs go with their choice. The MPs are of course going to have to answer to their Associations which will within a year or two, start the selection processes on new boundaries.
The fact that Nicky Morgan thought such a disastrous failure as Spielman was the best candidate for this role is an absolutely shocking indictment of either Morgan or the other candidates who applied.
If Mrs May ends up with 200 or more MPs, then Dave's Premiership ends tomorrow.
There will be momentum for a coronation.
I would prefer it went to the members but we are where we are.
The Nato summit starts tomorrow so perhaps we could leave Dave in place till the end of the week, especially as the new PM will have no defence or foreign policy experience (unless you count offshore tax havens).
Remind me what Mr Cameron's Defence experience is? Member of the CCF at Eton? He's been profoundly uninterested in the subject during his administration.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
But how do you get 'personal warmth' from that? Especially as she seems to be rather untruthful on many things.
Are you sure the warmth you feel isn't just because she (currently) agrees with you on the EU?
No. I'm voting for Gove and hoping he's on the final ballot. I like his radical, energetic, positive attitude. His work at Justice on prison reform is right up my street, I totally agreed with him on tackling The Blob.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
So that's what, 3 hours of on-screen time? Plus a questionable career in the City, some time as City minister after which she was shunted sideways rather than upwards as an energy minister.
Based on the above you think she is suitable to be PM ahead of someone who has held a great office for six years and not bungled like all of her predecessors and has been in Parliament for 19 years also ahead of someone who was education secretary for 4 years, chief whip for a year and justice secretary and Lord Chancellor at the moment and has been in the HoC for 11 years. Three hours of TV time and a dodgy CV indeed. Face it, you've backed yourself into a corner and now see no way out.
Leadsom is no Corbyn, but the forces thrusting her forward are the same.
For those two reasons, it surprises me that so few PB Tories with an interest in the preservation of the constitution are welcoming her participation. Every now and again in Britain we have revolutions - thankfully they have often been of the peaceful variety. At the moment, those forces of revolution seem to be behind a former banker (or tea lady, whatever we're allowed to call her now) from the City, sitting Tory MP, Government Minister Andrea Leadsom. And the most radical thing she seems to want to do is enact the democratically expressed wishes of the British electorate. It's hardly the storming of the Bastille is it?
But rather than welcoming this and assimilating it, letting it pump some fresh blood into our democracy, the establishment (and its various PB cheerleaders) is manning the barricades and furiously briefing against her. It seems they prefer Paul Nuttal tomorrow rather than Andrea Leadsom today.
One of the first judgement calls on Mrs May as PM is who to appoint as the Govt ministers. If she has a role for Osborne, Boles etc then we will know that she has no intention of running a solid administration.
Whilst the Tories are still banging on about Europe,Labour has found itself a leader.As I posted before,Jeremy Corbyn is the right man,in the right place,at the right time.His resilience,fortitude and toughness he has shown to defeat the Chicken Coup and all those complicit in the coup in the media,including the intellectual heavyweights of PB.com.Yesterday,Corbyn showed he's a statesman too.Labour party membership at 600,000 means he now leads the biggest socialist party in Europe.Corbyn stays and any Tories who not obsesses with internal matters should be very worried.Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere but no 10.
the entire country votes tactically at most general elections. It is a key feature of our voting system. People vote to stop the candidate they dislike the most who has the most chance of winning.
Therefore I genuinely see nothing morally wrong or illegitimate whatsoever in May supporters tactically voting to keep Andrea off the ballot.
I do think it may politically backfire however, and at this point she is best to amass as many supporters as possible, so that whether it's Gove or Leadsom, the lead is almost unassailable.
Worst case scenario, if members do take leave of their senses and elect Leadsom, I have faith that Tory MPs are more competent at organising a coup in a brewery than their Labour counterparts.
Having Leadsom as PM could be the trigger of a realignment between the Umunnite and Soubrysta wings of the two main parties.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
I imagine you had the same impression of Tony Blair at one time and like Blair, Leadsom has a similar approach to the truth.
So we can now perhaps muse on the composition of May's first Cabinet.
The question is whether she will be a unifier or a punisher or rather whether she will keep her friends close and her enemies closer.
Hammond seems set for a top job - Chancellor I would think. Having run the Home Office for six years, May will want someone in her own image to take over so think of an authoritarian, socially conservative person and you have your answer.
The role of FS isn't that important - the main area is the EU and improving trade relations with the rest of the world requires a dynamic force as Business Secretary. FS is a sinecure for old friends who don't matter.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires. The world will be a very different place by then - will the likes of Crabb and Javid be the next generation or are there others who May could promote into junior jobs now with a view to them being possible successors in six years time.
I expect both Crabb and Javid to be given top jobs as well.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
And you qualified it with 'to me' anyway. Quite an innocuous statement to jump on.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
So that's what, 3 hours of on-screen time? Plus a questionable career in the City, some time as City minister after which she was shunted sideways rather than upwards as an energy minister.
Based on the above you think she is suitable to be PM ahead of someone who has held a great office for six years and not bungled like all of her predecessors and has been in Parliament for 19 years also ahead of someone who was education secretary for 4 years, chief whip for a year and justice secretary and Lord Chancellor at the moment and has been in the HoC for 11 years. Three hours of TV time and a dodgy CV indeed. Face it, you've backed yourself into a corner and now see no way out.
How much time managing finance did Osborne have before become CofE? Answer none. How much time as a Govt minister did he have? Answer none. of course it does show but at least Andrea understand the basic tenets of finance, managing people and seen Govt from inside a couple of ministries.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
Or she is actually rubbish? Nobody likes a liar, or at least nobody should like a liar, and I am not impressed by faux-sophisticated "which of us has never told a little fib" ways round that. Equally worrying to me is the easy exposibility of the lies. You'd think she was stupid to think she would get away with it, but she clearly isn't, so that leaves me thinking she is a fantasist who can genuinely sell alternative versions of reality to herself. Just what I want in charge of the economy, and Trident.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
So that's what, 3 hours of on-screen time? Plus a questionable career in the City, some time as City minister after which she was shunted sideways rather than upwards as an energy minister.
Based on the above you think she is suitable to be PM ahead of someone who has held a great office for six years and not bungled like all of her predecessors and has been in Parliament for 19 years also ahead of someone who was education secretary for 4 years, chief whip for a year and justice secretary and Lord Chancellor at the moment and has been in the HoC for 11 years. Three hours of TV time and a dodgy CV indeed. Face it, you've backed yourself into a corner and now see no way out.
How much time managing finance did Osborne have before become CofE? Answer none. How much time as a Govt minister did he have? Answer none. of course it does show but at least Andrea understand the basic tenets of finance, managing people and seen Govt from inside a couple of ministries.
She may want to: it might be in a few months that the stars are perfectly aligned: UKIP leaderless and reorganising their position post-Brexit vote; Labour hopelessly split and in civil war; and the Lib Dems yet to fully capitalise.
Though there are obvious negatives as well.
I agree - Callaghan, Brown and Major, to name but three, didn't immediately go to the country for a new mandate and nor further back did Macmillan.
The other problem is the one Cameron discovered - even if everything is in place, the campaign is there, the opposition fragmented and the polls looking good, the people might just decide to do their own thing.
IF May called an election now and lost, her place in Conservative history would be assured.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
And you qualified it with 'to me' anyway. Quite an innocuous statement to jump on.
Just pointing out that Plato's position seems quite ridiculous to me.
And you've crawled out of the woodwork to jump on my reply.
As the outgoing PM has ruefully reminded us: all political careers end in failure. One wonders what Mrs. May's failure will be. She is a pretty cold fish and though respected, not necessarily widely liked. At a time when the UK is in real trouble as a result of this vote, with buyer's remorse all over the shop, it seems to me that her quite hardline statements suggest that she will indeed negotiate a definite Brexit. If she is uncompromising about this, then the future of the UK itself is clearly at serious threat. Its all very well saying "the people have spoken", but a) they can change their mind and b) sometimes it is not that clear what they have said. If Mrs. May charges towards the complete out door, with little possibility of a compromise and no future chance of rejoining, then she may find her Parliamentary support is insufficient. Issuing Article 50 without a Parliamentary vote is storing up big trouble, so she would be wise to put it to the vote while she still has the power to win it. Otherwise it is a quick descent into orders in council and a very fractious Parliament. A "Difficult Woman" attempting to defy Parliament is a recipe for a lot of very bad decisions and even worse headlines. Margaret Thatcher had solid majorities, Mrs May will not and will need to be both cunning and flexible- not traits she has so far demonstrated- in order to be successful.
Having run the Home Office for six years, May will want someone in her own image to take over so think of an authoritarian, socially conservative person and you have your answer.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires. The world will be a very different place by then - will the likes of Crabb and Javid be the next generation or are there others who May could promote into junior jobs now with a view to them being possible successors in six years time.
I expect both Crabb and Javid to be given top jobs as well.
Gove for HS would seem the obvious one. Then he can also explain all that business with immigration and its (lack of) control.
Fallon to the Foreign Office, Javid to Defence, Crabb in situ, Leadsom to Business? Or does the FO have to have a pro-BRexit minister in, in which case the obvious choice is Grayling although he's hardly a natural FS! Edited to add the crucial missing word re. Grayling.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
Hate.. thats a very strong word.. why do they HATE her?
Same reason they hate Johnson, Gove, etc. Remainer Derangement Syndrome.
You seem to be suffering from derangement yourself. I don't think people hate for that sort of reason, actively dislike possibly but hate?? naaah
I'd agree "actively dislike" rather than hate.
Leadsom was one of the people who wielded the dagger, so she can't wear the crown.
How about this as a novel suggestion for Conservative leader and PM?
Step forward Gisela Stuart.
She's a Leaver, so she can represent the majority. All but the most bitter Remainers are now in the 'acceptance' phase.
And Labour will never have a female PM otherwise. She did well in the referendum debates and only the most stolid deluded Jezzarite can claim that Cameron was a full-fat, red in tooth and claw, baby-eating backwoodsman.
So we can now perhaps muse on the composition of May's first Cabinet.
The question is whether she will be a unifier or a punisher or rather whether she will keep her friends close and her enemies closer.
Hammond seems set for a top job - Chancellor I would think. Having run the Home Office for six years, May will want someone in her own image to take over so think of an authoritarian, socially conservative person and you have your answer.
The role of FS isn't that important - the main area is the EU and improving trade relations with the rest of the world requires a dynamic force as Business Secretary. FS is a sinecure for old friends who don't matter.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires. The world will be a very different place by then - will the likes of Crabb and Javid be the next generation or are there others who May could promote into junior jobs now with a view to them being possible successors in six years time.
I expect both Crabb and Javid to be given top jobs as well.
I'm hoping the next Chancellor is a fiscal conservative. But I'm having trouble coming up with MPs who fit that description.
My favourite so far was a suggestion to put Mr Clarke in the harness again. Looking at the Treasury select committee members as a shortlist, Steve Baker and Andrew Tyrie seem like possibles.
So we can now perhaps muse on the composition of May's first Cabinet.
The question is whether she will be a unifier or a punisher or rather whether she will keep her friends close and her enemies closer.
Hammond seems set for a top job - Chancellor I would think. Having run the Home Office for six years, May will want someone in her own image to take over so think of an authoritarian, socially conservative person and you have your answer.
The role of FS isn't that important - the main area is the EU and improving trade relations with the rest of the world requires a dynamic force as Business Secretary. FS is a sinecure for old friends who don't matter.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires. The world will be a very different place by then - will the likes of Crabb and Javid be the next generation or are there others who May could promote into junior jobs now with a view to them being possible successors in six years time.
I expect both Crabb and Javid to be given top jobs as well.
The cult of youth! The next American president will be 70. Mrs Merkel is 61, as are Juncker and Hollande. Perhaps they can sort out the EU over a game of bingo.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires.
I would be amazed if she makes it to the end of this parliament given how brutal it ill be. How can she fight an election in 2020 if it's obvious she will step down in a year or so.
Unless she is a hugely successful PM for whom everything goes right, I'd expect her to use the next 3 years to steady the country and build up the talent to replace her.
Excellent piece on p18 of the Telegraph today about the incompetence of govt, from Iraq through to Brexit. I believe our electoral and governmental system needs a complete overhaul. Parish, town, district, county councils, commons, Lords, we did have the EU, thousands of people making bad decisions, costing us £billions.
We need to cull the bureaucrats by at least 50% and put far more scrutiny on those remaining, too much faith is placed in useless people.
How about this as a novel suggestion for Conservative leader and PM?
Step forward Gisela Stuart.
She's a Leaver, so she can represent the majority. All but the most bitter Remainers are now in the 'acceptance' phase.
And Labour will never have a female PM otherwise. She did well in the referendum debates and only the most stolid deluded Jezzarite can claim that Cameron was a full-fat, red in tooth and claw, baby-eating backwoodsman.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsition untenable.
as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
And you qualified it with 'to me' anyway. Quite an innocuous statement to jump on.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubm tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
And you qualified it with 'to me' anyway. Quite an innocuous statement to jump on.
Just another aspect of Remainer Derangement Syndrome. Not only are they utterly unwilling to change their opinion, they can not accept others having a different one. Part of the reason they lost the referendum in the first place.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires.
I would be amazed if she makes it to the end of this parliament given how brutal it ill be. How can she fight an election in 2020 if it's obvious she will step down in a year or so.
Unless she is a hugely successful PM for whom everything goes right, I'd expect her to use the next 3 years to steady the country and build up the talent to replace her.
You would think that Boris would be supporting her in these circumstances!
Excellent piece on p18 of the Telegraph today about the incompetence of govt, from Iraq through to Brexit. I believe our electoral and governmental system needs a complete overhaul. Parish, town, district, county councils, commons, Lords, we did have the EU, thousands of people making bad decisions, costing us £billions.
We need to cull the bureaucrats by at least 50% and put far more scrutiny on those remaining, too much faith is placed in useless people.
IIRC the City Mayors legislation still needs approval before Recess. Anyone know if it's already gone through on the nod and we didn't notice, or if it's scheduled?
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
And you qualified it with 'to me' anyway. Quite an innocuous statement to jump on.
Just pointing out that Plato's position seems quite ridiculous to me.
And you've crawled out of the woodwork to jump on my reply.
So I have. My mistake. When you returned having been unwell, I thought I'd give you another chance - for you to display a modicum of maturity. Judging by the fact you've already responded to posts that didn't refer to you with paranoia, posts that weren't addressed to you with attempted insults, and the very mildest of rebukes with 'crawled out of the woodwork', it seems I was wrong and you just aren't capable. So you'll not be responded to again.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the support of the crazies and UKIP types. She does not represent the mainstream Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
Hate.. thats a very strong word.. why do they HATE her?
Same reason they hate Johnson, Gove, etc. Remainer Derangement Syndrome.
You seem to be suffering from derangement yourself. I don't think people hate for that sort of reason, actively dislike possibly but hate?? naaah
I'd agree "actively dislike" rather than hate.
Leadsom was one of the people who wielded the dagger, so she can't wear the crown.
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires.
I would be amazed if she makes it to the end of this parliament given how brutal it ill be. How can she fight an election in 2020 if it's obvious she will step down in a year or so.
Unless she is a hugely successful PM for whom everything goes right, I'd expect her to use the next 3 years to steady the country and build up the talent to replace her.
You would think that Boris would be supporting her in these circumstances!
I gather that Boris figures Leadsom won't have the votes within the party or Parliament to enact her immigration plan at the expense of the economy in which case she'll be gone and take the fall for Leave's guff with her, opening the door for him to become PM a year from now.
Comments
Alec-Douglas Home was an obvious one, as was Michael Foot. Unfortunately, despite his other talents, Robin Cook was in this group. More recently, we have had Ed Miliband.
The latest incarnation is Michael Gove, so putting him in the final two would risk disaster at the 2020 GE for the Tories, as Jezza will no longer be LOTO.
You are all welcome to this priceless political prediction.
So that later they are fully transparent about what they did and why. Full transparency is something which appears not be be a Leadsom forte, I have to say, and it is one reason why last weekend I posted on here that my investigator's antennae were twitching and that there was something that did not add up about what she was saying about her career in the City.
Good day to all.it has to be may now. Deus vult!
The EU is often not as strong as some people - especially its detractors - think, although in some areas it is. Worse, some in the EU *want* it to be that powerful everywhere, so they play into those perceptions.
So it is simultaneously strong and weak.
Add in the fact it's an easy whipping boy to blame for failures that are not always the EU's fault, and it's easy to see how the EU could fail as more countries blame for everything gets shifted onto it, especially by politicians wanting to avoid blame for their mistakes.
On the other hand, the EU seems to be oblivious to how people feel about it. Via it's tin ear, the EU is as much responsible for Brexit as Cameron and UKIP.
There will be momentum for a coronation.
I would prefer it went to the members but we are where we are.
But for sure, May will disappoint.
If there is a part of anybody's job that they're not interested in, they always fail at it. Most of the time, if they get enough other things right, it doesn't much matter. But seeing as Brexit is by far the biggest component of the next PMs life, it will matter a lot. Brexit is squarely in the lap of the gu'nor (the PM) not the clerks. May might prefer to 'sub' the job out to somebody else, but she can't.
Let the Party speak.
"Even though large tracts of the continent and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the EU and all the odious apparatus of Junker rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in Brussels, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old."
Andrea Leadsom - House Of Commons 4th June 1940
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24829/andrea_leadsom/south_northamptonshire/votes
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10426/theresa_may/maidenhead/votes
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11858/michael_gove/surrey_heath/votes
Interestingly for Leadsom: "Generally voted for more EU integration". LOL.
Such records are slightly unfair on May and Gove, who have been payroll vote for some time.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6083990
I think parties need to have different rules in govt and opposition for leadership elections imo for speed and certainty etc
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I get that, I really do.
The point is though part of Cameron's rationale behind the Referendum was to lance the boil as someone put it and end thirty years of debilitating internecine warfare within the party and the only thing it hasn't done is achieve that.
Everyone was saying before 23/6 that if the country voted REMAIN narrowly, the next Conservative leader (Johnson as it seemed at the time) would be a LEAVE supporter.
Paradoxically, the opposite has happened and the Conservatives will be led by a REMAIN supporter helped into power by the dissident Cameroons as an act of revenge for the fallen leader. Just as the Thatcherites resolved Heseltine would never wear the crown, so Gove is finding out the truth of how politics really works.
May will have the onerous job of disengaging us from the EU while trying to satisfy those who a) never wanted us to leave at all and b) those who want to leave much more than she might or her backers do.
To me, May has all the warmth of a chilly January morning in Novosibirsk but I imagine there will be a battery of interviews and newspaper pieces to convince us she's a normal human being . I find her social conservatism and authoritarianism profoundly disturbing and I think she will be the most dictatorial Prime Minister since Thatcher.
I suspect some of those who voted for Cameron last year won't find it anywhere near as easy to vote for May but in the absence (at present) of meaningful opposition, that doesn't matter,
May is up against Brutus and Walter Mitty. Little wonder the Home Secretary is running away with the contest.
The Conservatives had a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum and abide by the result. There is no requirement for PM May to go to the country.
"What to make of it all? An honest plea for understanding from a broken man? Or a performance, an immaculately executed impersonation of one?
This is his trouble. If people don’t believe he was honest in taking the country to war, they won’t believe he’s honest in anything. He will always be under suspicion, no matter what he says, and no matter how he sounds when he says it. That suspicion will be with him, whatever."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/06/gaunt-hoarse-and-haunted-tony-blair-looked-a-broken-man/
Are you sure the warmth you feel isn't just because she (currently) agrees with you on the EU?
Or is the risk of a GE campaign getting dominated by Brexiteer demands too great?
Though there are obvious negatives as well.
https://twitter.com/alisonmrowat/status/750941361474535429
"Ofsted's next head, Amanda Spielman, rejected by MPs"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-36723828
The fact that Nicky Morgan thought such a disastrous failure as Spielman was the best candidate for this role is an absolutely shocking indictment of either Morgan or the other candidates who applied.
Corbyn has held the same views for 40 years.
Leadsom has been steadfast in her dislike of the EU for 40 weeks, if that
Based on the above you think she is suitable to be PM ahead of someone who has held a great office for six years and not bungled like all of her predecessors and has been in Parliament for 19 years also ahead of someone who was education secretary for 4 years, chief whip for a year and justice secretary and Lord Chancellor at the moment and has been in the HoC for 11 years. Three hours of TV time and a dodgy CV indeed. Face it, you've backed yourself into a corner and now see no way out.
But rather than welcoming this and assimilating it, letting it pump some fresh blood into our democracy, the establishment (and its various PB cheerleaders) is manning the barricades and furiously briefing against her. It seems they prefer Paul Nuttal tomorrow rather than Andrea Leadsom today.
Therefore I genuinely see nothing morally wrong or illegitimate whatsoever in May supporters tactically voting to keep Andrea off the ballot.
I do think it may politically backfire however, and at this point she is best to amass as many supporters as possible, so that whether it's Gove or Leadsom, the lead is almost unassailable.
Worst case scenario, if members do take leave of their senses and elect Leadsom, I have faith that Tory MPs are more competent at organising a coup in a brewery than their Labour counterparts.
Having Leadsom as PM could be the trigger of a realignment between the Umunnite and Soubrysta wings of the two main parties.
The question is whether she will be a unifier or a punisher or rather whether she will keep her friends close and her enemies closer.
Hammond seems set for a top job - Chancellor I would think. Having run the Home Office for six years, May will want someone in her own image to take over so think of an authoritarian, socially conservative person and you have your answer.
The role of FS isn't that important - the main area is the EU and improving trade relations with the rest of the world requires a dynamic force as Business Secretary. FS is a sinecure for old friends who don't matter.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires. The world will be a very different place by then - will the likes of Crabb and Javid be the next generation or are there others who May could promote into junior jobs now with a view to them being possible successors in six years time.
I expect both Crabb and Javid to be given top jobs as well.
Some honesty. At last.
...........................................
No. The PM must put the country and not party interest first. The nation requires certainty not months of more drift.
The other problem is the one Cameron discovered - even if everything is in place, the campaign is there, the opposition fragmented and the polls looking good, the people might just decide to do their own thing.
IF May called an election now and lost, her place in Conservative history would be assured.
And you've crawled out of the woodwork to jump on my reply.
Fallon to the Foreign Office, Javid to Defence, Crabb in situ, Leadsom to Business? Or does the FO have to have a pro-BRexit minister in, in which case the obvious choice is Grayling although he's hardly a natural FS!
Edited to add the crucial missing word re. Grayling.
Leadsom was one of the people who wielded the dagger, so she can't wear the crown.
Step forward Gisela Stuart.
She's a Leaver, so she can represent the majority. All but the most bitter Remainers are now in the 'acceptance' phase.
And Labour will never have a female PM otherwise. She did well in the referendum debates and only the most stolid deluded Jezzarite can claim that Cameron was a full-fat, red in tooth and claw, baby-eating backwoodsman.
A Government of National Unity.
I'd vote for her.
My favourite so far was a suggestion to put Mr Clarke in the harness again. Looking at the Treasury select committee members as a shortlist, Steve Baker and Andrew Tyrie seem like possibles.
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/treasury-committee/membership/
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I don't think 60 is such a big deal. The PM's role can vary with the style and wishes of the individual.
Unless she is a hugely successful PM for whom everything goes right, I'd expect her to use the next 3 years to steady the country and build up the talent to replace her.
We need to cull the bureaucrats by at least 50% and put far more scrutiny on those remaining, too much faith is placed in useless people.
I would rather we were asked, but given where we are I would accept the mandate of the parliamentary party
Corbyn in a skirt