As the outgoing PM has ruefully reminded us: all political careers end in failure. One wonders what Mrs. May's failure will be. She is a pretty cold fish and though respected, not necessarily widely liked. At a time when the UK is in real trouble as a result of this vote, with buyer's remorse all over the shop, it seems to me that her quite hardline statements suggest that she will indeed negotiate a definite Brexit. If she is uncompromising about this, then the future of the UK itself is clearly at serious threat. Its all very well saying "the people have spoken", but a) they can change their mind and b) sometimes it is not that clear what they have said. If Mrs. May charges towards the complete out door, with little possibility of a compromise and no future chance of rejoining, then she may find her Parliamentary support is insufficient. Issuing Article 50 without a Parliamentary vote is storing up big trouble, so she would be wise to put it to the vote while she still has the power to win it. Otherwise it is a quick descent into orders in council and a very fractious Parliament. A "Difficult Woman" attempting to defy Parliament is a recipe for a lot of very bad decisions and even worse headlines. Margaret Thatcher had solid majorities, Mrs May will not and will need to be both cunning and flexible- not traits she has so far demonstrated- in order to be successful.
The 'people have spoken' but not very clearly or very decisively. The fact that they were told really big lies, which were disowned once they had achieved their purpose, only adds to the confusion.
Leadsom is no Corbyn, but the forces thrusting her forward are the same.
For those two reasons, it surprises me that so few PB Tories with an interest in the preservation of the constitution are welcoming her participation. Every now and again in Britain we have revolutions - thankfully they have often been of the peaceful variety. At the moment, those forces of revolution seem to be behind a former banker (or tea lady, whatever we're allowed to call her now) from the City, sitting Tory MP, Government Minister Andrea Leadsom. And the most radical thing she seems to want to do is enact the democratically expressed wishes of the British electorate. It's hardly the storming of the Bastille is it?
But rather than welcoming this and assimilating it, letting it pump some fresh blood into our democracy, the establishment (and its various PB cheerleaders) is manning the barricades and furiously briefing against her. It seems they prefer Paul Nuttal tomorrow rather than Andrea Leadsom today.
All the Tory candidates are committed to enact the democratically expressed wishes of the British electorate, so the suggestion briefing against Leadsome is the establishment going against that somehow doesn't make a lick of sense.
The only question is which of the candidates is offering the best plan for the country, a large part of which involves their specific plan for Brexit. Some will feel that is Leadsome offering the best plan, but plenty don't and briefing against her to prevent her winning is not unreasonable, unusual or pro or anti establishment (she is clearly still establishment herself), so long as one sticks to the facts.
This is just another one of those situations where politics is operating as normal, rivals briefing against each other or making their own mistakes and being held accountable for them, and people exaggerate it out into something remarkable.
The wider situation is remarkable, us leaving the EU. May vs Leadsome or Gove has so far not been in the slightest bit remarkable - perceived weaknesses are going to be attacked by opponents. Someone fetch me the smelling salts, it's a revolution against the peoples' will!
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires.
I would be amazed if she makes it to the end of this parliament given how brutal it ill be. How can she fight an election in 2020 if it's obvious she will step down in a year or so.
Unless she is a hugely successful PM for whom everything goes right, I'd expect her to use the next 3 years to steady the country and build up the talent to replace her.
The cult of youth! The next American president will be 70. Mrs Merkel is 61, as are Juncker and Hollande. Perhaps they can sort out the EU over a game of bingo.
I'm not suggesting Theresa May shouldn't or couldn't do the job now but the truth is it's an extraordinarily stressful task - it aged both Blair and Cameron enormously while Nick Clegg looks like a new man after a year away from the pressure cooker of Downing Street.
Even if she wins an election in 2020 (and that's far from certain) she will be nearly 70 by the end of that Parliament. Would she want it ? If she says she will go "on and on" that causes problems as well.
She is a transitional leader between the generations (much as Howard before her).
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
Howard maybe, IDS is like poison. Look at where he left the party in 2003. Most members I know don't believe we should go back to the days od IDS.
That's a seriously worrying statement, because it implies that there ARE some Tory members who want to go back to the days of 166 MPs and sub-30 in the polls.
I thought such people were sectioned a long while ago so they couldn't do more damage. Or joined the Labour Party as real converts to Corbynism.
As I said, Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. She has the Conservative party and membership any more than Corbyn does for Labour.
Hopefully MPs have looked across the house and seen what happens when the othet party tried to tempt fate and let an extremist on the ballot. While I think May will win regardless, Leadsom will force her into unfavourable policy positions such as guaranteeing the right to remain of EU citizens in the UK before the right of UK citizens in the EU have been granted the same rights.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
Hate.. thats a very strong word.. why do they HATE her?
Same reason they hate Johnson, Gove, etc. Remainer Derangement Syndrome.
You seem to be suffering from derangement yourself. I don't think people hate for that sort of reason, actively dislike possibly but hate?? naaah
I'd agree "actively dislike" rather than hate.
Leadsom was one of the people who wielded the dagger, so she can't wear the crown.
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
Dude you voted Leave in a campaign where the official group said their post referendum plans did not include being part of the EEA. What did you think you we're voting for?!
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
Yup. Some of May's authoritarian tendencies trouble me, but she is considerably more main stream (and so, voter-friendly) than either Leadsmen or Gove.
It is just her owning Brexit that is the lingering doubt. Will the EU believe she will go through with it? If I were the EU, I'd think she could be bought off....
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
"To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together."
You must be joking. I mean, what are you even basing this on? She was hardly known before the referendum debates, and hasn't been interviewed much afterwards.
I've watched her press conference, all the tv debates, her intvs on Sky. That's quite enough for me to form an opinion.
I imagine you had the same impression of Tony Blair at one time and like Blair, Leadsom has a similar approach to the truth.
Dude you voted Leave in a campaign where the official group said their post referendum plans did not include being part of the EEA. What did you think you we're voting for?!
We voted on the question of leaving the EU. The Leave campaign was bullshit, and given how quickly it has been recanted by the people who pushed it, they knew it was bullshit too. I answered the question on the ballot, not the question the Leave campaign were asking.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
Or she is actually rubbish? .
Possible. I hope we find out during a leadership campaign.
It does strike me that there is a problem wherein because our opponents will use certain arguments for partisan reasons, we as people tend to assume anyone using those arguments has no justifiable basis for them. When the fact is if someone attacks us, whoever they are and even if the reason for it is one partisans use, it can be legitimate too.
It's interesting that the thread is dominated by talk of May and Leadsom with barely a word on Gove. On ITV News a night or two ago, Peston was talking about the last two being May and Leadsom. Whilst that's eminently possible, there is another vote to occur.
Political pundits might consider just how good, or otherwise, their track record has been predicting such things (cf 2015 General Election, 2010 General Election, last two Labour leadership elections, the EU referendum).
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
Yup. Some of May's authoritarian tendencies trouble me, but she is considerably more main stream (and so, voter-friendly) than either Leadsmen or Gove.
It is just her owning Brexit that is the lingering doubt. Will the EU believe she will go through with it? If I were the EU, I'd think she could be bought off....
I think they think she can be bought off with EEA membership and a fig leaf on free movement, something like increasing the waiting days and tying them to working status rather than the date of entry or something along those lines. If she couples that with benefits reforms we will get a reduction in migration, enough to please most mainstream Conservatives (MPs and members) while also staying in the single market and not doing lasting damage to the national economy.
More sensible local Councils are already doing this. As an example, borrowing to purchase Investment Property to provide a steady income stream without reference to Government. Changes to procurement rules mean Councils can buy property outside their own area and live off the generated rental income.
I think you'll find business parks, car parks, residential estates and the like are all owned by local Councils directly or through an investment property company.
It's interesting that the thread is dominated by talk of May and Leadsom with barely a word on Gove. On ITV News a night or two ago, Peston was talking about the last two being May and Leadsom. Whilst that's eminently possible, there is another vote to occur.
Political pundits might consider just how good, or otherwise, their track record has been predicting such things (cf 2015 General Election, 2010 General Election, last two Labour leadership elections, the EU referendum).
We've already had one round of MPs voting that showed Mr Gove had less support than Ms Leadsom.
Since then we've had Messrs Rifkind and Clarke labelling Mr Gove as a warmonger, and Mr Boles text to MPs revealing that he was reduced to appealing for anti-Leadsom votes, rather than pro-Gove votes.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires.
I would be amazed if she makes it to the end of this parliament given how brutal it ill be. How can she fight an election in 2020 if it's obvious she will step down in a year or so.
Unless she is a hugely successful PM for whom everything goes right, I'd expect her to use the next 3 years to steady the country and build up the talent to replace her.
60 is the new 50 Her age is of total irrelevance.
Absolutely. It all depends on the individual. Some people are knackered at 40, others throbbing at 80.
Mr. Dave, yes, but we also know May has hundreds of backers. If she (or they, independently of her) want to, they can easily get Gove into the final two.
Who would May rather face? And who would, out of Gove and Leadsom, be a worse leader for party/country?
If the PCP takes the view, collectively, that Leadsom's too risky they should back Gove.
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
Yup. Some of May's authoritarian tendencies trouble me, but she is considerably more main stream (and so, voter-friendly) than either Leadsmen or Gove.
It is just her owning Brexit that is the lingering doubt. Will the EU believe she will go through with it? If I were the EU, I'd think she could be bought off....
Brexiteers need to get a PM in place who will invoke article 50 before BREXIT becomes so unpopular that it will be politically impossible to implement. Foreign holidays on a weak pound will start the slide, expensive fuel and house price movements will continue it.
One more thing - let's be blunt - May will be 60 in October and nearly 64 by the time of the next election. She is in effect a caretaker leader until presumably the middle of the next Parliament when she retires.
I would be amazed if she makes it to the end of this parliament given how brutal it ill be. How can she fight an election in 2020 if it's obvious she will step down in a year or so.
Unless she is a hugely successful PM for whom everything goes right, I'd expect her to use the next 3 years to steady the country and build up the talent to replace her.
60 is the new 50 Her age is of total irrelevance.
Absolutely. It all depends on the individual. Some people are knackered at 40, others throbbing at 80.
For me Bogdanor's brilliant recent intervention is key here.
The argument of 'management of the nation' was exactly that advanced for trying to stop the advancement of the franchise in the nineteenth century, and we are at the same place right here, right now.
It doesn't matter what minor character flaws leadsom has. We all have them. What matters is that leadsom is promising to implement the mandate that millions voted for last month.
And that is why the dregs of the establishment is so utterly desperate to block her, at any price.
I'm sure many remainers would look down their noses at the 1832 tories, fighting to stop more people being let into franchise. But they are effectively doing the same thing.
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
Yup. Some of May's authoritarian tendencies trouble me, but she is considerably more main stream (and so, voter-friendly) than either Leadsmen or Gove.
It is just her owning Brexit that is the lingering doubt. Will the EU believe she will go through with it? If I were the EU, I'd think she could be bought off....
Brexiteers need to get a PM in place who will invoke article 50 before BREXIT becomes so unpopular that it will be politically impossible to implement. Foreign holidays on a weak pound will start the slide, expensive fuel and house price movements will continue it.
That is where May is going to have to offer clarity in the hustings. If we get that far.
Absolutely. It all depends on the individual. Some people are knackered at 40, others throbbing at 80.
This is Prime Minister we're talking about. If, as I suspect, she wants to do it all herself a la the Blessed Margaret, we'll see how "irrelevant" her age is after four or five years of the crap she'll be dealing with on a daily basis.
I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by Xmas
@juliamacfarlane: Andrea Leadsom says trade must be the top priority: continued tariff-free trade with the EU and countries UK in agreement with as part of EU
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
Yup. Some of May's authoritarian tendencies trouble me, but she is considerably more main stream (and so, voter-friendly) than either Leadsmen or Gove.
It is just her owning Brexit that is the lingering doubt. Will the EU believe she will go through with it? If I were the EU, I'd think she could be bought off....
Brexiteers need to get a PM in place who will invoke article 50 before BREXIT becomes so unpopular that it will be politically impossible to implement. Foreign holidays on a weak pound will start the slide, expensive fuel and house price movements will continue it.
That is where May is going to have to offer clarity in the hustings. If we get that far.
That is the whole idea. Let the Brexiters see what they have done.
Mr. Dave, yes, but we also know May has hundreds of backers. If she (or they, independently of her) want to, they can easily get Gove into the final two.
Who would May rather face? And who would, out of Gove and Leadsom, be a worse leader for party/country?
If the PCP takes the view, collectively, that Leadsom's too risky they should back Gove.
If you really believe that, Leadsom to be eliminated at 2nd round might be an attractive bet for you.
Personally I think the wheels have come off the Gove campaign, and pro-May MPs have accepted Leadsom as the 2nd candidate. (hence Mr Shapps attempt to reduce the contest to 3 weeks.)
@JeremyCliffe: Brexit vote hasn't hit pound, says Leadsom, then explains: markets simply hadn't correctly anticipated result of referendum.
Good morning all.
This is why Leadsom is the wrong choice. You can't just wish things away. Every report, every model, almost every pundit predicted that sterling would fall on a Brexit vote.
Her entire happy-clappy, gosh-won't-it-be-wonderful approach grates on me. It might have been appropriate pre-ref, not now.
If anyone takes the time to look at an FTA like CETA or TPP, you'll come away with two conclusions. Firstly, they're incredibly complex and technical. Secondly, they're incredibly dull.
The next PM is our principal. She'll be negotiating the very broadest of outlines with the Council, and presumably dealing with any political fallout. After that, she can go about the business of running the country (i.e the 87% of the economy and 89% of the workforce that don't do EU things).
@juliamacfarlane: Andrea Leadsom says trade must be the top priority: continued tariff-free trade with the EU and countries UK in agreement with as part of EU
I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by Xmas
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
Or she is actually rubbish? Nobody likes a liar, or at least nobody should like a liar, and I am not impressed by faux-sophisticated "which of us has never told a little fib" ways round that. Equally worrying to me is the easy exposibility of the lies. You'd think she was stupid to think she would get away with it, but she clearly isn't, so that leaves me thinking she is a fantasist who can genuinely sell alternative versions of reality to herself. Just what I want in charge of the economy, and Trident.
As I wrote earlier, she was in all probability looking forward to a solid career languishing as a backbencher, where any CV or other claims would have remained blissfully unscrutinised.
Not in a million years did she think she would be running for PM.
@JeremyCliffe: Brexit vote hasn't hit pound, says Leadsom, then explains: markets simply hadn't correctly anticipated result of referendum.
Good morning all.
This is why Leadsom is the wrong choice. You can't just wish things away. Every report, every model, almost every pundit predicted that sterling would fall on a Brexit vote.
Her entire happy-clappy, gosh-won't-it-be-wonderful approach grates on me. It might have been appropriate pre-ref, not now.
If anyone takes the time to look at an FTA like CETA or TPP, you'll come away with two conclusions. Firstly, they're incredibly complex and technical. Secondly, they're incredibly dull.
The next PM is our principal. She'll be negotiating the very broadest of outlines with the Council, and presumably dealing with any political fallout. After that, she can go about the business of running the country (i.e the 87% of the economy and 89% of the workforce that don't do EU things).
I think the general public are going to be bloody angry if Tory members give it to Leadsom in another Corbynesque moment of summer madness, despite May clearly being their preference and need for experience and stability.
@JeremyCliffe: Brexit vote hasn't hit pound, says Leadsom, then explains: markets simply hadn't correctly anticipated result of referendum.
Good morning all.
This is why Leadsom is the wrong choice. You can't just wish things away. Every report, every model, almost every pundit predicted that sterling would fall on a Brexit vote.
Her entire happy-clappy, gosh-won't-it-be-wonderful approach grates on me. It might have been appropriate pre-ref, not now.
If anyone takes the time to look at an FTA like CETA or TPP, you'll come away with two conclusions. Firstly, they're incredibly complex and technical. Secondly, they're incredibly dull.
The next PM is our principal. She'll be negotiating the very broadest of outlines with the Council, and presumably dealing with any political fallout. After that, she can go about the business of running the country (i.e the 87% of the economy and 89% of the workforce that don't do EU things).
I think the general public are going to be bloody angry if Tory members give it to Leadsom in another Corbynesque moment of summer madness, despite May clearly being their preference and need for experience and stability.
It might help the Lib Dems to hold Hallam though...
How about this as a novel suggestion for Conservative leader and PM?
Step forward Gisela Stuart.
She's a Leaver, so she can represent the majority. All but the most bitter Remainers are now in the 'acceptance' phase.
And Labour will never have a female PM otherwise. She did well in the referendum debates and only the most stolid deluded Jezzarite can claim that Cameron was a full-fat, red in tooth and claw, baby-eating backwoodsman.
A Government of National Unity.
I'd vote for her.
She is also a Tory. Probably a supporter of the CSU in Bavaria
I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by Xmas
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.
If she takes us out of the single market to satisfy the false argument about a majority voting for immigration restrictions then there is no way I'll vote for the Conservatives if she is still PM in 2020 let alone go out and campaign for them. She is the antithesis of what the modern Conservative party should be.
Yup. Some of May's authoritarian tendencies trouble me, but she is considerably more main stream (and so, voter-friendly) than either Leadsmen or Gove.
It is just her owning Brexit that is the lingering doubt. Will the EU believe she will go through with it? If I were the EU, I'd think she could be bought off....
Brexiteers need to get a PM in place who will invoke article 50 before BREXIT becomes so unpopular that it will be politically impossible to implement. Foreign holidays on a weak pound will start the slide, expensive fuel and house price movements will continue it.
Trying to get down the A303 with the pound at EUR1.05 will be hell.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
Or she is actually rubbish? Nobody likes a liar, or at least nobody should like a liar, and I am not impressed by faux-sophisticated "which of us has never told a little fib" ways round that. Equally worrying to me is the easy exposibility of the lies. You'd think she was stupid to think she would get away with it, but she clearly isn't, so that leaves me thinking she is a fantasist who can genuinely sell alternative versions of reality to herself. Just what I want in charge of the economy, and Trident.
As I wrote earlier, she was in all probability looking forward to a solid career languishing as a backbencher, where any CV or other claims would have remained blissfully unscrutinised.
Not in a million years did she think she would be running for PM.
And it beggars belief that she is even in the running at a time like this. For god's sake politicians get a bloody grip of yourselves.
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
@montie: Boost for @AndreaLeadsom as Michael Howard tells #bbcr4today that he's backing her. She now has 2 ex-party leaders on side (other being IDS)
The electorate she's trying to win over are Conservative Party members. IDS and Howard are good endorsements.
Leadsom isn't Corbyn at all. Her views are quite in tune with the 60% or so of Conservatives who voted Leave. But, she shouldn't be chosen as leader, because it's quite clear that much of the Parliamentary Party and many activists hate her, and would make her position untenable.
I'm not sure that criteria wouldn't apply to Gove or May. To me, Leadsom has more personal warmth than the other two put together. Gove is very smart and energetic, but some dislike his manner. May is more the cool technocrat, and doesn't have a reputation for team playing.
All of them have their own issues. The immense effort to rubbish Leadsom tells me that her candidacy is seen as a threat.
Or she is actually rubbish? Nobody likes a liar, or at least nobody should like a liar, and I am not impressed by faux-sophisticated "which of us has never told a little fib" ways round that. Equally worrying to me is the easy exposibility of the lies. You'd think she was stupid to think she would get away with it, but she clearly isn't, so that leaves me thinking she is a fantasist who can genuinely sell alternative versions of reality to herself. Just what I want in charge of the economy, and Trident.
As I wrote earlier, she was in all probability looking forward to a solid career languishing as a backbencher, where any CV or other claims would have remained blissfully unscrutinised.
Not in a million years did she think she would be running for PM.
And it beggars belief that she is even in the running at a time like this. For god's sake politicians get a bloody grip of yourselves.
Not releasing her tax info will hurt.
I'm also hoping that the MPs embarrass her and she loses support from her existing 66.
''I think the general public are going to be bloody angry if Tory members give it to Leadsom in another Corbynesque moment of summer madness, despite May clearly being their preference and need for experience and stability.''
Read the threads of the popular tory newspapers.
The thousands of ordinary folk who check those out do not have a good word to say about May.
Then again, they overwhelmingly backed Brexit, as opposed to the parrots on here now squawking for a May coronation.
I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by Xmas
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
You really are a quite unpleasant individual. The Tory party still deserve the epithet of being the nasty party.
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
Would you like a hankerchief to wipe away all that froth from your mouth?
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
I think you'll find that the majority of leavers on here are in favour of May, Tory ones at least. The UKIP and BLUKIP types are supporting Leadsom.
There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
@ManWithThePlan A non-entity with no Cabinet experience and brief experience of Parliament being parachuted into Number 10 because she tickles the erogenous zones of monomaniacs?
If the Conservatives were a serious party, she would already have been laughed to scorn and her supporters along with her. Sadly, we now have only silly parties.
I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by Xmas
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
1. What actual evidence do you have that the UKIP connection is anything but one way? 2. Other than her personally being a Chrisitian, when has she bothered anyone else about her faith? 3. When has she ever gay bashed, beyond a single statement suggesting a preference for children to have a parent of each sex? (Something I imagine most over-50s in this country believe.)
@JeremyCliffe: Brexit vote hasn't hit pound, says Leadsom, then explains: markets simply hadn't correctly anticipated result of referendum.
Good morning all.
This is why Leadsom is the wrong choice. You can't just wish things away. Every report, every model, almost every pundit predicted that sterling would fall on a Brexit vote.
The AEP article linked to earlier suggests that sterling is still overvalued.
"... it is trading exactly where it was in March 2013 when most people were not even aware of the exchange rate. The Bank of England's trade-weighted index has dropped to 78.5, a fall of 9pc over the pre-Brexit range, and 13pc since the start of the year. It is comparable to the devaluations of 1931 and 1992, both of which led to Gothic headlines at the time but ultimately proved benign.
The pound may have to fall yet further to restore equilibrium. The International Monetary Fund thinks it is still 3pc to 9pc overvalued even now based on the real effective exchange rate (REER) and other measures."
Just watched Andrea Leadsom presentation that promised sunny uplands to everyone but came over as very light weight with not a single proposition on how she would achieve this new utopia.
Without being unkind I was concerned at the way when she said something her supporters would like, she stood there with a vacuous nodding smile waiting for applause. However, the most astonishing part of the presentation was the way she walked off as quick as she could to avoid questions. In view if the two page Daily Mail investigation into her c.v and her tax arrangements this is a car crash waiting to happen
I spoke with my son last night who has just moved to live in Vancouver from New Zealand and is involved with export logistics and currency. He said that the courting of Australia and New Zealand by the UK hardly gets any coverage as their interests are now in the Pacific rim.
He maintains that deals with Australia and New Zealand are not really important to them. Interesting
For me Bogdanor's brilliant recent intervention is key here.
The argument of 'management of the nation' was exactly that advanced for trying to stop the advancement of the franchise in the nineteenth century, and we are at the same place right here, right now.
It doesn't matter what minor character flaws leadsom has. We all have them. What matters is that leadsom is promising to implement the mandate that millions voted for last month.
And that is why the dregs of the establishment is so utterly desperate to block her, at any price.
I'm sure many remainers would look down their noses at the 1832 tories, fighting to stop more people being let into franchise. But they are effectively doing the same thing.
For me Bogdanor's brilliant recent intervention is key here.
The argument of 'management of the nation' was exactly that advanced for trying to stop the advancement of the franchise in the nineteenth century, and we are at the same place right here, right now.
It doesn't matter what minor character flaws leadsom has. We all have them. What matters is that leadsom is promising to implement the mandate that millions voted for last month.
And that is why the dregs of the establishment is so utterly desperate to block her, at any price.
I'm sure many remainers would look down their noses at the 1832 tories, fighting to stop more people being let into franchise. But they are effectively doing the same thing.
Why do Brexiters who do not like a Remainer being elected as Leader just resort to insults?
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
@ManWithThePlan A non-entity with no Cabinet experience and brief experience of Parliament being parachuted into Number 10 because she tickles the erogenous zones of monomaniacs?
If the Conservatives were a serious party, she would already have been laughed to scorn and her supporters along with her. Sadly, we now have only silly parties.
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
It speaks to the degree of paranoia about politics and politicians in general. We've heard a lot of talk about the realpolitik of Brexit and how hard squaring the SM/no FoM circle is going to be.
We've heard less about the consequences of revoking the referendum result. Not domestically; we might have the odd Toxteth riot or some very polite middle class demonstrations. We might even get a General Election. Big deal.
The real consequences would be internationally. The UK would be like the polite, well-dressed person at a cocktail party that converses beautifully and intelligently and then confides that the world is secretly run by Lizard People.
The EU would never, ever, ever trust us again. The US have already dropped London for Berlin in matters European, so that ship has already sailed. Any sensible business would make medium term plans to get out, just in case we changed our minds again. Commerce doesn't like uncertainty but it hates craziness.
I don't believe May would ignore the result simply because she can't.
@ManWithThePlan A non-entity with no Cabinet experience and brief experience of Parliament being parachuted into Number 10 because she tickles the erogenous zones of monomaniacs?
If the Conservatives were a serious party, she would already have been laughed to scorn and her supporters along with her. Sadly, we now have only silly parties.
The only factual criticism there is that she had no cabinet experience. That is equally true for Blair and Cameron. The rest is just your own froth.
@ManWithThePlan A non-entity with no Cabinet experience and brief experience of Parliament being parachuted into Number 10 because she tickles the erogenous zones of monomaniacs?
If the Conservatives were a serious party, she would already have been laughed to scorn and her supporters along with her. Sadly, we now have only silly parties.
Amazing how rapidly the frothers have adopted Leadsom as their great hope... One glance at that swept blonde coiffure and all marching along in unison to their rallying cry of 'bitty'!
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
I voted LEAVE, Antifrank, for reasons I've stated elsewhere. I think those who supported REMAIN without a single notion of the potential political and economic direction of the EU might be in the "bat dropping" department but I wouldn't say that out loud.
As for the Conservatives, the MPs might want a coronation and the ex-Cameroons might want to grind Gove and Leadsom to dust for their role in bringing down the Mighty David (wounds entirely self inflicted) but it doesn't matter.
Even if May wins 300 MPs tonight, the rules state the top two go into a ballot. Now, given Corbyn won the Labour leadership with the support of barely 30 MPs, it's entirely possible May could lose the leadership with the support of 300.
Stodge's political rule number 16 states "if a Party creates rules to prevent something happening, life will conspire to make that change as useless, inconvenient and uncomfortable as possible".
May has to square a circle - be LEAVE enough for the Leavers and REMAIN enough for the Remainers. Cameron couldn't do it - perhaps she can.
If remainers are so convinced May will beat Leadsom with the members, then why not just say right, bring it on? Lets let the mighty Theresa hammer Andrea to a pulp
@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
Can't help feeling that Michael Gove made a miscalculation in knifing Boris.
He clearly believed Boris wasn't the man for the job and did what he thought was right, but it killed Boris and his own chances and left the Brexit camp only with Leadsom. I just watched Leadsom speak and it was pretty empty - it won't impress any serious players.
May will win it, and at a canter. And I suspect May would've won it against Boris too (just). But Gove taking Boris down has deprived the leadership battle of a serious head to head. One where May would've needed to bring her 'A' game - like Cameron had to do in 2005.
May will walk it now. Watching Leadsom today (and that silly Citizen Smith march on parliament, on her behalf) proves to me she isn't a serious contender.
Comments
The only question is which of the candidates is offering the best plan for the country, a large part of which involves their specific plan for Brexit. Some will feel that is Leadsome offering the best plan, but plenty don't and briefing against her to prevent her winning is not unreasonable, unusual or pro or anti establishment (she is clearly still establishment herself), so long as one sticks to the facts.
This is just another one of those situations where politics is operating as normal, rivals briefing against each other or making their own mistakes and being held accountable for them, and people exaggerate it out into something remarkable.
The wider situation is remarkable, us leaving the EU. May vs Leadsome or Gove has so far not been in the slightest bit remarkable - perceived weaknesses are going to be attacked by opponents. Someone fetch me the smelling salts, it's a revolution against the peoples' will!
Her age is of total irrelevance.
https://twitter.com/birdyword/status/750967584980361216
Even if she wins an election in 2020 (and that's far from certain) she will be nearly 70 by the end of that Parliament. Would she want it ? If she says she will go "on and on" that causes problems as well.
She is a transitional leader between the generations (much as Howard before her).
It is just her owning Brexit that is the lingering doubt. Will the EU believe she will go through with it? If I were the EU, I'd think she could be bought off....
It does strike me that there is a problem wherein because our opponents will use certain arguments for partisan reasons, we as people tend to assume anyone using those arguments has no justifiable basis for them. When the fact is if someone attacks us, whoever they are and even if the reason for it is one partisans use, it can be legitimate too.
Political pundits might consider just how good, or otherwise, their track record has been predicting such things (cf 2015 General Election, 2010 General Election, last two Labour leadership elections, the EU referendum).
Awkward.
I think you'll find business parks, car parks, residential estates and the like are all owned by local Councils directly or through an investment property company.
Since then we've had Messrs Rifkind and Clarke labelling Mr Gove as a warmonger, and Mr Boles text to MPs revealing that he was reduced to appealing for anti-Leadsom votes, rather than pro-Gove votes.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes
Who would May rather face? And who would, out of Gove and Leadsom, be a worse leader for party/country?
If the PCP takes the view, collectively, that Leadsom's too risky they should back Gove.
@JeremyCliffe: Brexit vote hasn't hit pound, says Leadsom, then explains: markets simply hadn't correctly anticipated result of referendum.
Foreign holidays on a weak pound will start the slide, expensive fuel and house price movements will continue it.
She is actually delusional
CorbynLeadsomThe argument of 'management of the nation' was exactly that advanced for trying to stop the advancement of the franchise in the nineteenth century, and we are at the same place right here, right now.
It doesn't matter what minor character flaws leadsom has. We all have them. What matters is that leadsom is promising to implement the mandate that millions voted for last month.
And that is why the dregs of the establishment is so utterly desperate to block her, at any price.
I'm sure many remainers would look down their noses at the 1832 tories, fighting to stop more people being let into franchise. But they are effectively doing the same thing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/06/sterling-slide-is-painful-but-what-we-need-is-a-global-deflation/
Edited extra bit: with Ladbrokes.
Whichever two make the final ballot - I look forward to the hustings where we can discover more about each candidates thoughts on a range of issues.
So she'll sign up to FoM
Awesome
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3675154/Left-wing-German-politician-raped-migrants-admits-LIED-police-attackers-nationality-did-not-want-encourage-racism.html
I'm speechless, heaven knows what Germany makes of all this
It gets worse
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/norwegian-rape-victim-feels-guilty-the-man-who-raped-him-was-deported-a6975041.html
Personally I think the wheels have come off the Gove campaign, and pro-May MPs have accepted Leadsom as the 2nd candidate. (hence Mr Shapps attempt to reduce the contest to 3 weeks.)
...who was whisked away in a chauffeur driven Mercedes
This is why Leadsom is the wrong choice. You can't just wish things away. Every report, every model, almost every pundit predicted that sterling would fall on a Brexit vote.
Her entire happy-clappy, gosh-won't-it-be-wonderful approach grates on me. It might have been appropriate pre-ref, not now.
If anyone takes the time to look at an FTA like CETA or TPP, you'll come away with two conclusions. Firstly, they're incredibly complex and technical. Secondly, they're incredibly dull.
The next PM is our principal. She'll be negotiating the very broadest of outlines with the Council, and presumably dealing with any political fallout. After that, she can go about the business of running the country (i.e the 87% of the economy and 89% of the workforce that don't do EU things).
Blair already favourite for the Best Actor in next year's BAFTA.
Edited extra bit: ahem, +result.
...not a cult...
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
Not in a million years did she think she would be running for PM.
I'm also hoping that the MPs embarrass her and she loses support from her existing 66.
Read the threads of the popular tory newspapers.
The thousands of ordinary folk who check those out do not have a good word to say about May.
Then again, they overwhelmingly backed Brexit, as opposed to the parrots on here now squawking for a May coronation.
All 17 million of us?
right
This article demonstrates your wisdom perfectly:
"Alastair Meeks, a 48-year-old lawyer, is going with the flow; he plans to put several thousand pounds on Britain staying in the EU."
If the Conservatives were a serious party, she would already have been laughed to scorn and her supporters along with her. Sadly, we now have only silly parties.
2. Other than her personally being a Chrisitian, when has she bothered anyone else about her faith?
3. When has she ever gay bashed, beyond a single statement suggesting a preference for children to have a parent of each sex? (Something I imagine most over-50s in this country believe.)
"... it is trading exactly where it was in March 2013 when most people were not even aware of the exchange rate. The Bank of England's trade-weighted index has dropped to 78.5, a fall of 9pc over the pre-Brexit range, and 13pc since the start of the year. It is comparable to the devaluations of 1931 and 1992, both of which led to Gothic headlines at the time but ultimately proved benign.
The pound may have to fall yet further to restore equilibrium. The International Monetary Fund thinks it is still 3pc to 9pc overvalued even now based on the real effective exchange rate (REER) and other measures."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/06/sterling-slide-is-painful-but-what-we-need-is-a-global-deflation/
Without being unkind I was concerned at the way when she said something her supporters would like, she stood there with a vacuous nodding smile waiting for applause. However, the most astonishing part of the presentation was the way she walked off as quick as she could to avoid questions. In view if the two page Daily Mail investigation into her c.v and her tax arrangements this is a car crash waiting to happen
I spoke with my son last night who has just moved to live in Vancouver from New Zealand and is involved with export logistics and currency. He said that the courting of Australia and New Zealand by the UK hardly gets any coverage as their interests are now in the Pacific rim.
He maintains that deals with Australia and New Zealand are not really important to them. Interesting
We've heard less about the consequences of revoking the referendum result. Not domestically; we might have the odd Toxteth riot or some very polite middle class demonstrations. We might even get a General Election. Big deal.
The real consequences would be internationally. The UK would be like the polite, well-dressed person at a cocktail party that converses beautifully and intelligently and then confides that the world is secretly run by Lizard People.
The EU would never, ever, ever trust us again. The US have already dropped London for Berlin in matters European, so that ship has already sailed. Any sensible business would make medium term plans to get out, just in case we changed our minds again. Commerce doesn't like uncertainty but it hates craziness.
I don't believe May would ignore the result simply because she can't.
As for the Conservatives, the MPs might want a coronation and the ex-Cameroons might want to grind Gove and Leadsom to dust for their role in bringing down the Mighty David (wounds entirely self inflicted) but it doesn't matter.
Even if May wins 300 MPs tonight, the rules state the top two go into a ballot. Now, given Corbyn won the Labour leadership with the support of barely 30 MPs, it's entirely possible May could lose the leadership with the support of 300.
Stodge's political rule number 16 states "if a Party creates rules to prevent something happening, life will conspire to make that change as useless, inconvenient and uncomfortable as possible".
May has to square a circle - be LEAVE enough for the Leavers and REMAIN enough for the Remainers. Cameron couldn't do it - perhaps she can.
Unless they are scared, of course.
He clearly believed Boris wasn't the man for the job and did what he thought was right, but it killed Boris and his own chances and left the Brexit camp only with Leadsom. I just watched Leadsom speak and it was pretty empty - it won't impress any serious players.
May will win it, and at a canter. And I suspect May would've won it against Boris too (just). But Gove taking Boris down has deprived the leadership battle of a serious head to head. One where May would've needed to bring her 'A' game - like Cameron had to do in 2005.
May will walk it now. Watching Leadsom today (and that silly Citizen Smith march on parliament, on her behalf) proves to me she isn't a serious contender.
May v Boris would've been heavyweight.