Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.
Welcome home!
Shame said home is on fire at the moment, but I am sure we can sort it out. :-0
Not when the homeowner has locked the door and given the key to the mad tramps outside who are pouring petrol on said house.
Perhaps we should ask one of the experts who predicted it would be a thousand points lower at least
Then again....
Nothing to do with the hinted at rate cut making more risky investments more attractive? See the decline in £ at the same time...
The explanation I like was that Brexit means the Fed won't raise interest rates. That's perked up everyone. The world is addicted to cheap money, any port in a storm that keeps the goodies coming...
Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
Precisely. It really is as simple as that.
Because she tells people what they want to hear?
Did you go to the BBA roundtable a couple of days ago about Brexit. Much less glum than I thought it would be.
I've been overseas most of the week. A conference I was at on Monday had mixed views tending to the downside although it is incidental to the wider theme of that conference. It's the lack of a next steps plan which is the issue.
Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.
Welcome home!
Well if we can all get our act together, there is hope.
I've emailed some of the leading contenders to run on a unity platform.....I'll dealt they'll ever read it, but let's hope sense prevails and the Labour can muddle through it's existential crisis.
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
BBC 3 is coming back as a dedicated channel for Michael Gove speeches.
However it is understood the Corporation is believed to be insistent that a substantial rise in the license fee would be necessary to fund the channel and that BBC Gove is the real reason why the Chancellor has found that a budget surplus will not be possible by 2020, if indeed before 2050
Since plummeting to an intra-day low of 5788 just one week ago on 24 June, the FTSE 100 index has since soared by 800 points or 13.8% to 6588 just now. Is this a record one week rise I wonder?
Clearly the equity market no longer believes the UK is likely to leave the EU in the foreseeable future.
On the assumption that you are gambling with money that you can afford to lose, I would consider the bet as if I were starting from scratch right now. Right now you can back Andrea Leadsom at between 5/1 and 11/2 on the next Conservative leader market on Betfair and lay her at the same price on the next Prime Minister market.
I see Theresa May as pretty well certain to make the last two, probably some distance ahead of the second placed challenger. I would make Theresa May the strong favourite against any of the contenders but this is almost a human form of the Monty Hall problem: Theresa May's chances do not improve all that much by the elimination of the earlier rounds - the 2/5 that she is currently priced at is only a little longer than the price that she would command if she makes the last two (the doors that are opened early are inevitably losing doors and bettors are assuming that the booby prizes will be eliminated early). So 5/2 is not too far from the correct price of her ultimate rival in the party vote.
I expect that Stephen Crabb has insufficient support to break through this time and Liam Fox, while he has a reasonable number of MPs who might back him, has a cap on his support derived from his political positioning that rules him out of contention for the last two. So that leaves Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
My impression is that Michael Gove has inspired fury in many loyal Conservatives and that feeling is likely to be equally strong at Parliamentary level. Even those MPs who are nonchalant about Machiavellian ploys are likely to find when they take soundings in their constituency that he would be a very unpopular choice. So I expect him to sink.
That means that if Andrea Leadsom can survive the opening rounds, she seems likeliest to me of the four other candidates to make the last two, accumulating critical mass as the rounds roll on. I make her something like 4/6 to make the last two. Multiplying those probabilities together, I make her roughly a 5/1 shot.
So right now, the price for Andrea Leadsom seems fair value to me. I wouldn't rush to back her from scratch and if I had a longshot bet on her already, I might be inclined to take some - but not all - of that fair value out at this point, given that the bet remains firmly odds against, albeit much shorter than it once was.
No more than I expected too - Gove took out Boris for good reason after his wobbling. I'm sad about Boris, but you can't fanny about/appear to backslide as he did.
Just did a minor cash-out on my Tory bets. My bet from 3 years ago on May has come up trumps (all good things come to those who wait etc etc). Now totally green with still a big pay day on May if she goes all the way.
Thank you Boris!!
Yeah, I was lucky on this one too. Laid Osborne, Gove and Boris way back. Backed May. All small bets but good odds. I've taken some of the May profit and will now let everything run.
On Labour I haven't a clue, and have various small bets on long shots that look most unlikely to pay off.
There have been plenty of lay-the-favourite leaders, comments and discussions over the past year with regard to the next PM and next Tory leader markets. Anyone who followed them will be very green now. As with last week, thanks to Mike OGH and all the PB team for this amazing moneymaking resource
Do we know where the 5 candidates stand on the single market? I assume Gove, Leadsom and Fox would all be OK with us being out of this while May and Crabb would make staying in the single market their top priority.
If this is so and May becomes next PM, presumably she needs to appoint a Brexit negotiator who has the same top priority?
Since plummeting to an intra-day low of 5788 just one week ago on 24 June, the FTSE 100 index has since soared by 800 points or 13.8% to 6588 just now. Is this a record one week rise I wonder?
Clearly the equity market no longer believes the UK is likely to leave the EU in the foreseeable future.
Different components faring differently though. Alot of the FTSE has USD revenue - GSK.l up almost 1600 Which makes up for my Tory leader book !
Since plummeting to an intra-day low of 5788 just one week ago on 24 June, the FTSE 100 index has since soared by 800 points or 13.8% to 6588 just now. Is this a record one week rise I wonder?
Clearly the equity market no longer believes the UK is likely to leave the EU in the foreseeable future.
Or it could be because the pound has dropped and QE likely.
Actually I'd have thought Greg Hands (currently First Sec to Treasury) would be an option for Chancellor. I'm sure he's done his master's bidding for Remain, but relatively untainted, and at least knows the ropes pretty damn well.
I backed him some months ago and mentioned doing so here, before the "Next Chancellor" market was taken down. I believe his odds were then around 50/1 .... very tasty!
Just did a minor cash-out on my Tory bets. My bet from 3 years ago on May has come up trumps (all good things come to those who wait etc etc). Now totally green with still a big pay day on May if she goes all the way.
Thank you Boris!!
Yeah, I was lucky on this one too. Laid Osborne, Gove and Boris way back. Backed May. All small bets but good odds. I've taken some of the May profit and will now let everything run.
On Labour I haven't a clue, and have various small bets on long shots that look most unlikely to pay off.
There have been plenty of lay-the-favourite leaders, comments and discussions over the past year with regard to the next PM and next Tory leader markets. Anyone who followed them will be very green now. As with last week, thanks to Mike OGH and all the PB team for this amazing moneymaking resource
Max - I'm not sure I agree with your potential Theresa May cabinet. If she is to reward and promote her supporters and find a spot for the defeated candidates then that means some senior figures will have to go completely. In particular, Osborne surely has to go as he was the power behind the throne under Cameron. I can't see how any of the contenders could tolerate a rival power base in their cabinet.
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.
So what? We're all heading for BREXIT.
and she's not really a Remainer. She just made a political calculation, like Boris did.
She's a smart operator. During the campaign she went out of her way to propose leaving the ECJ, to keep the leavers onside. After the campaign she proposed to stay in the ECJ, to reach out to the remainers. And she has got remarkably little stick for her flexibility.
I am getting confused. ECJ or ECHR? I had thought she was talking about the latter.
ECHR. It's not a big deal anyway, it's the ECJ and the charter of fundamental rights which we need to get away from.
Indeed, once the compulsory nature of ECHR rulings as interpreted by the ECJ is gone, no point in leaving the ECHR
Since plummeting to an intra-day low of 5788 just one week ago on 24 June, the FTSE 100 index has since soared by 800 points or 13.8% to 6588 just now. Is this a record one week rise I wonder?
Clearly the equity market no longer believes the UK is likely to leave the EU in the foreseeable future.
Or it could be because the pound has dropped and QE likely.
Yes, I think the pound is what to watch in the near term if we need runes other than what politicians are doing and saying. Occam's razor and all that.
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
It's mostly because of the symbolism. Brexit is easier for the EU to treat as a one-off British issue, in the same way Greece wasn't seen as neccesarily representing the whole of the EU, because their economic issues were much more extreme than that of Spain or Italy for example. Explicitly electing a far right president in a typically middle of the road EU country however, sends a real sign that the Europe as a whole is in a bad place.
I think the presidency is fairly weak but with official powers that normally go unused, a bit like the Queen - and I recall him saying last time he intended to use them.
I never learn, just as I was beginning to think that we may get through this leadership contest without the usual bloodbath, I wake up on Thursday morning and there is bloody all over the carpet. We were even beginning to get some kudos from commentators that we appeared to have handled this referendum 'reasonably' well, but no, it wasn't to be.
Boris was right to stand down, the whole contest would have become a media-fest between him and Gove. I've always admired Theresa May but as a Leaver I'm not 100% convinced she will pull out all the stops for Brexit. At the moment, it is Andrea Leadsom for me.
Please. If we are talking about the No2 position at the Treasury it's Chief Secretary.
Actually the second position at the treasury is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The first position is the PM
Isn't Chancellor the third position in the Treasury after the First Lord of the Treasury and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (aka Chief Whip)
On the assumption that you are gambling with money that you can afford to lose, I would consider the bet as if I were starting from scratch right now. Right now you can back Andrea Leadsom at between 5/1 and 11/2 on the next Conservative leader market on Betfair and lay her at the same price on the next Prime Minister market.
I see Theresa May as pretty well certain to make the last two, probably some distance ahead of the second placed challenger. I would make Theresa May the strong favourite against any of the contenders but this is almost a human form of the Monty Hall problem: Theresa May's chances do not improve all that much by the elimination of the earlier rounds - the 2/5 that she is currently priced at is only a little longer than the price that she would command if she makes the last two (the doors that are opened early are inevitably losing doors and bettors are assuming that the booby prizes will be eliminated early). So 5/2 is not too far from the correct price of her ultimate rival in the party vote.
I expect that Stephen Crabb has insufficient support to break through this time and Liam Fox, while he has a reasonable number of MPs who might back him, has a cap on his support derived from his political positioning that rules him out of contention for the last two. So that leaves Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
My impression is that Michael Gove has inspired fury in many loyal Conservatives and that feeling is likely to be equally strong at Parliamentary level. Even those MPs who are nonchalant about Machiavellian ploys are likely to find when they take soundings in their constituency that he would be a very unpopular choice. So I expect him to sink.
That means that if Andrea Leadsom can survive the opening rounds, she seems likeliest to me of the four other candidates to make the last two, accumulating critical mass as the rounds roll on. I make her something like 4/6 to make the last two. Multiplying those probabilities together, I make her roughly a 5/1 shot.
So right now, the price for Andrea Leadsom seems fair value to me. I wouldn't rush to back her from scratch and if I had a longshot bet on her already, I might be inclined to take some - but not all - of that fair value out at this point, given that the bet remains firmly odds against, albeit much shorter than it once was.
You'll rue the day you brought Monty back into this, Alastair
Please. If we are talking about the No2 position at the Treasury it's Chief Secretary.
Actually the second position at the treasury is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The first position is the PM
Isn't Chancellor the third position in the Treasury after the First Lord of the Treasury and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (aka Chief Whip)
I don't always enjoy pedantry, but when I do, I choose PB pedantry.
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
To anyone who thinks we might get a coronation of May next week, there's free money on Betfair that Cameron will stand down as PM this year at 1.03 - £5.5k available to anyone with spare cash around.
Leadership candidates have a £135,000 spending limit. It would be nice not to have to try to find the money.
Would allow others to point Leadsom as the Corbyn analogue of Tory contest - choice of extremists who aren’t even members/who might not have the best interests of the party at heart
On the assumption that you are gambling with money that you can afford to lose, I would consider the bet as if I were starting from scratch right now. Right now you can back Andrea Leadsom at between 5/1 and 11/2 on the next Conservative leader market on Betfair and lay her at the same price on the next Prime Minister market.
I see Theresa May as pretty well certain to make the last two, probably some distance ahead of the second placed challenger. I would make Theresa May the strong favourite against any of the contenders but this is almost a human form of the Monty Hall problem: Theresa May's chances do not improve all that much by the elimination of the earlier rounds - the 2/5 that she is currently priced at is only a little longer than the price that she would command if she makes the last two (the doors that are opened early are inevitably losing doors and bettors are assuming that the booby prizes will be eliminated early). So 5/2 is not too far from the correct price of her ultimate rival in the party vote.
I expect that Stephen Crabb has insufficient support to break through this time and Liam Fox, while he has a reasonable number of MPs who might back him, has a cap on his support derived from his political positioning that rules him out of contention for the last two. So that leaves Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
My impression is that Michael Gove has inspired fury in many loyal Conservatives and that feeling is likely to be equally strong at Parliamentary level. Even those MPs who are nonchalant about Machiavellian ploys are likely to find when they take soundings in their constituency that he would be a very unpopular choice. So I expect him to sink.
That means that if Andrea Leadsom can survive the opening rounds, she seems likeliest to me of the four other candidates to make the last two, accumulating critical mass as the rounds roll on. I make her something like 4/6 to make the last two. Multiplying those probabilities together, I make her roughly a 5/1 shot.
So right now, the price for Andrea Leadsom seems fair value to me. I wouldn't rush to back her from scratch and if I had a longshot bet on her already, I might be inclined to take some - but not all - of that fair value out at this point, given that the bet remains firmly odds against, albeit much shorter than it once was.
I think you are right about Gove. The members surely wanted to have Boris as one of their choices and make that decision. Gove will pay in spades for his Shakespearean levels of treachery.
Now I'm all green, and big pay out on May, I am slightly increasing on Leadsom. Something, something, nagging at me (probably based on the IDS episode).
Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
Leadership candidates have a £135,000 spending limit. It would be nice not to have to try to find the money.
Would allow others to point Leadsom as the Corbyn analogue of Tory contest - choice of extremists who aren’t even members/who might not have the best interests of the party at heart
It's a small thing.
How many debates are there going to be between the final two?
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
It's mostly because of the symbolism. Brexit is easier for the EU to treat as a one-off British issue, in the same way Greece wasn't seen as neccesarily representing the whole of the EU, because their economic issues were much more extreme than that of Spain or Italy for example. Explicitly electing a far right president in a typically middle of the road EU country however, sends a real sign that the Europe as a whole is in a bad place.
I think the presidency is fairly weak but with official powers that normally go unused, a bit like the Queen - and I recall him saying last time he intended to use them.
The other point is that the UK has always been the problem child that demands special treatment. There's a certain catharsis for some in the EU to say "Enough. Fuck off then."
Austria, though it's a late entrant ('95 iirc), has generally been a good European citizen.
Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
I think Gove's done two things - he's taken Boris out - and he's published an entire alternative Tory manifesto for post-Brexit Britain.
It's all there. Just waiting for a Brexit leader to run with it.
Please. If we are talking about the No2 position at the Treasury it's Chief Secretary.
Actually the second position at the treasury is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The first position is the PM
Isn't Chancellor the third position in the Treasury after the First Lord of the Treasury and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (aka Chief Whip)
I don't always enjoy pedantry, but when I do, I choose PB pedantry.
Please. If we are talking about the No2 position at the Treasury it's Chief Secretary.
Actually the second position at the treasury is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The first position is the PM
Isn't Chancellor the third position in the Treasury after the First Lord of the Treasury and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (aka Chief Whip)
I don't always enjoy pedantry, but when I do, I choose PB pedantry.
Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.
So what? We're all heading for BREXIT.
and she's not really a Remainer. She just made a political calculation, like Boris did.
She's a smart operator. During the campaign she went out of her way to propose leaving the ECJ, to keep the leavers onside. After the campaign she proposed to stay in the ECJ, to reach out to the remainers. And she has got remarkably little stick for her flexibility.
I am getting confused. ECJ or ECHR? I had thought she was talking about the latter.
ECHR. It's not a big deal anyway, it's the ECJ and the charter of fundamental rights which we need to get away from.
Fecking Article 8 is one of the biggest pains in our national arse when it comes to trying to stop unlawful immigration and migration.
@politicshome: Tory eurosceptic Bernard Jenkin reveals he is backing Andrea Leadsom to be PM. #wato
I was at university with Jenkin. He is as dim as his father.
I've met him (albeit briefly: we were at the same conference). He's good at being nasty in his job but gets confused and dismissive in technical discussion. In this he compares poorly to Gove, Hannan or Ress-Mogg, all of whom can keep their cool.
Please. If we are talking about the No2 position at the Treasury it's Chief Secretary.
Actually the second position at the treasury is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The first position is the PM
Isn't Chancellor the third position in the Treasury after the First Lord of the Treasury and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (aka Chief Whip)
The Parliamentary Secretary is not a commissioner of the Lord High Treasurer, although the junior commissioners (after the First (PM) and Second Lords (COFE)) are junior whips.
Now it looks like Osborne has done the dirty on Gove and sent his deputies to May. Gove = fucked.
It does have a certain piquancy about it. May (remain) ends up as PM, Gove and Boris are on the back benches, what price all that banging on from certain quarters around here concerning what were "Leave" going to do about various perceived problems - nothing at all, as I mentioned at the time, none of the key people at the Leave campaign would be in government if May is the next PM.
Michael's speech spelled out a Right-on and Gove Albion
Almost sounded like a green. Bet it looked a good speech on paper and Mrs G loved it. Sadly when he wielded the knife (again) he ended two political careers.
Any chance of a game of who else will be on the scrapheap bingo after all this? May will be looking to bring a new team and will surely have an eye on her own succession. Not a great time to be an alumni of one of the great public schools or a politico-journo i suspect as she seeks to reconnect with white racist man?
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
It's mostly because of the symbolism. Brexit is easier for the EU to treat as a one-off British issue, in the same way Greece wasn't seen as neccesarily representing the whole of the EU, because their economic issues were much more extreme than that of Spain or Italy for example. Explicitly electing a far right president in a typically middle of the road EU country however, sends a real sign that the Europe as a whole is in a bad place.
I think the presidency is fairly weak but with official powers that normally go unused, a bit like the Queen - and I recall him saying last time he intended to use them.
The other point is that the UK has always been the problem child that demands special treatment. There's a certain catharsis for some in the EU to say "Enough. Fuck off then."
Austria, though it's a late entrant ('95 iirc), has generally been a good European citizen.
Exactly, as most people don't pay attention to Austria, it will be more of a shock in some ways. Not to mention that Brexit at least provides some opportunties amongst EU member states, so while overall a negative for the EU, it's not equally spread out (Germany suffering from our exit more than France will etc). If Hofer gets in, there are zero advantages for any political party, member state or the EU itself, except other far-right parties.
@politicshome: Tory eurosceptic Bernard Jenkin reveals he is backing Andrea Leadsom to be PM. #wato
I was at university with Jenkin. He is as dim as his father.
I've met him (albeit briefly: we were at the same conference). He's good at being nasty in his job but gets confused and dismissive in technical discussion. In this he compares poorly to Gove, Hannan or Ress-Mogg, all of whom can keep their cool.
I just think he is the living evidence that who-you-know rather than what-you-know isn't a great way to go...
Leadership candidates have a £135,000 spending limit. It would be nice not to have to try to find the money.
Would allow others to point Leadsom as the Corbyn analogue of Tory contest - choice of extremists who aren’t even members/who might not have the best interests of the party at heart
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
That assumes Andrea Leadsom wins vs Theresa. I don't think she would. If the race was being conducted in opposition then I think Leadsom would have a good shot, but whoever wins this becomes PM and has a tricky few years ahead of them. I think the members will pick who they know and someone they can trust to be a safe pair of hands. This leadership election has come two years too early for Leadsom
1) all left in after Tuesday's vote pull out except Theresa May
2) Leadsom doesn't, because it's felt that the membership need to have the chance to vote for a "Leaver", otherwise too many might get annoyed and move to UKIP (unlikely in my opinion)
3) between now and Monday, Theresa May gets a medical report, or a front-pager in the Sun, or both, saying that because of her type 1 diabetis she couldn't stand up to the stress of being prime minister, so she drops out
3a) Gove drops out and Leadsom gets crowned
3b) Gove and Leadsom take it to the membership, and since Gove is obviously such an arsehole, whom few would want to serve under, work with or be led by, Leadsom soundly beats him
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
If that is true (it does come from Breitbart, who can be quite excitable) then this alone means we were right to leave the EU. It is fundamentally undemocratic. Non-democracy is in its DNA and it will never, ever change.
Why is the FTSE booming (nearly 6600)? Perhaps we should ask one of the experts who predicted it would be a thousand points lower at least
I'm not an expert in this field and although I made some post-Brexit predictions, I'm fairly sure a numerical one concerning the FTSE would have been outside my area. However, I'll have a go.
The value of the FTSE is the present value IN POUNDS of future earnings, and tangible things like stock and plant, and intangible things like confidence. The pound has now descended and if Carney is right concerning QE, it will descend further. Because of this the value of future earnings IN POUNDS has risen
To use a somewhat crude metaphor: It's not that the dick has gotten bigger, it's the fact that the ruler has shrunk.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
I never learn, just as I was beginning to think that we may get through this leadership contest without the usual bloodbath, I wake up on Thursday morning and there is bloody all over the carpet. We were even beginning to get some kudos from commentators that we appeared to have handled this referendum 'reasonably' well, but no, it wasn't to be.
Boris was right to stand down, the whole contest would have become a media-fest between him and Gove. I've always admired Theresa May but as a Leaver I'm not 100% convinced she will pull out all the stops for Brexit. At the moment, it is Andrea Leadsom for me.
At least the Tories are getting on with it (all be it in blood thirsty fashion) Labour is just messing about and making fools of themselves.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
I'm glad on Team May, looks like the Tombstone wing of the party is backing Leadsom.
I was wondering what had happened to him. He's been almost invisible recently, but a year or so ago he was doing some good stuff on possible Brexit scenarios.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
That assumes Andrea Leadsom wins vs Theresa. I don't think she would. If the race was being conducted in opposition then I think Leadsom would have a good shot, but whoever wins this becomes PM and has a tricky few years ahead of them. I think the members will pick who they know and someone they can trust to be a safe pair of hands. This leadership election has come two years too early for Leadsom
I'd say she's running to get her name out and to get a good cabinet position, rather than to actually win. She'll be a good shout next time the leadership comes up.
When was the last time that the governing party chose someone not even in the Cabinet as PM?
''Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better. ''
It is good news as long as the drop is reasonably modest. We want the bubble to deflate, not burst.
Comments
They really ought to choose May. In a period of such instability this is "no time for a novice".
I've emailed some of the leading contenders to run on a unity platform.....I'll dealt they'll ever read it, but let's hope sense prevails and the Labour can muddle through it's existential crisis.
"Many senior figures believe that the way he has turned on Boris Johnson is beyond the pale, and are preparing to back Andrea Leadsom, I understand that a group of former Boris backers are considering declaring their support as a block for Leadsom on Monday too."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/andrea-leadsom-overtakes-michael-gove-become-second-favourite-tory-race/
However it is understood the Corporation is believed to be insistent that a substantial rise in the license fee would be necessary to fund the channel and that BBC Gove is the real reason why the Chancellor has found that a budget surplus will not be possible by 2020, if indeed before 2050
Clearly the equity market no longer believes the UK is likely to leave the EU in the foreseeable future.
http://www.gove2016.co.uk/
I see Theresa May as pretty well certain to make the last two, probably some distance ahead of the second placed challenger. I would make Theresa May the strong favourite against any of the contenders but this is almost a human form of the Monty Hall problem: Theresa May's chances do not improve all that much by the elimination of the earlier rounds - the 2/5 that she is currently priced at is only a little longer than the price that she would command if she makes the last two (the doors that are opened early are inevitably losing doors and bettors are assuming that the booby prizes will be eliminated early). So 5/2 is not too far from the correct price of her ultimate rival in the party vote.
I expect that Stephen Crabb has insufficient support to break through this time and Liam Fox, while he has a reasonable number of MPs who might back him, has a cap on his support derived from his political positioning that rules him out of contention for the last two. So that leaves Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
My impression is that Michael Gove has inspired fury in many loyal Conservatives and that feeling is likely to be equally strong at Parliamentary level. Even those MPs who are nonchalant about Machiavellian ploys are likely to find when they take soundings in their constituency that he would be a very unpopular choice. So I expect him to sink.
That means that if Andrea Leadsom can survive the opening rounds, she seems likeliest to me of the four other candidates to make the last two, accumulating critical mass as the rounds roll on. I make her something like 4/6 to make the last two. Multiplying those probabilities together, I make her roughly a 5/1 shot.
So right now, the price for Andrea Leadsom seems fair value to me. I wouldn't rush to back her from scratch and if I had a longshot bet on her already, I might be inclined to take some - but not all - of that fair value out at this point, given that the bet remains firmly odds against, albeit much shorter than it once was.
If this is so and May becomes next PM, presumably she needs to appoint a Brexit negotiator who has the same top priority?
A bit drawn out though.
@GuidoFawkes: Arron Banks Keen to Bankroll Leadsom Campaign: https://t.co/rvMkBvLMJe https://t.co/zaP7sZyfKp
It's like Michael giving Fredo the kiss of death in The Godfather Part II.
Source closes to UKIP donor Arron Banks says he is keen to help out Andrea Leadsom’s leadership campaign in any way possible, including financially.
http://order-order.com/2016/07/01/arron-banks-offering-bankroll-leadsom-campaign/
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/24/eu-vows-use-new-powers-block-elected-far-right-populists-power/
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
Yes, I think the pound is what to watch in the near term if we need runes other than what politicians are doing and saying. Occam's razor and all that.
I think the presidency is fairly weak but with official powers that normally go unused, a bit like the Queen - and I recall him saying last time he intended to use them.
Boris was right to stand down, the whole contest would have become a media-fest between him and Gove. I've always admired Theresa May but as a Leaver I'm not 100% convinced she will pull out all the stops for Brexit. At the moment, it is Andrea Leadsom for me.
Now I'm all green, and big pay out on May, I am slightly increasing on Leadsom. Something, something, nagging at me (probably based on the IDS episode).
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
How many debates are there going to be between the final two?
Austria, though it's a late entrant ('95 iirc), has generally been a good European citizen.
It's all there. Just waiting for a Brexit leader to run with it.
@SouthamObserver has rejoined the Labour Party.
Gove gets beat. Leadsom makes him her chancellor and wins??
We can't just give up
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmR9Ft0W8AA1p0p.jpg
Awesome.
Almost sounded like a green. Bet it looked a good speech on paper and Mrs G loved it. Sadly when he wielded the knife (again) he ended two political careers.
Any chance of a game of who else will be on the scrapheap bingo after all this? May will be looking to bring a new team and will surely have an eye on her own succession. Not a great time to be an alumni of one of the great public schools or a politico-journo i suspect as she seeks to reconnect with white racist man?
May is UKIP's dream candidate.
1) all left in after Tuesday's vote pull out except Theresa May
2) Leadsom doesn't, because it's felt that the membership need to have the chance to vote for a "Leaver", otherwise too many might get annoyed and move to UKIP (unlikely in my opinion)
3) between now and Monday, Theresa May gets a medical report, or a front-pager in the Sun, or both, saying that because of her type 1 diabetis she couldn't stand up to the stress of being prime minister, so she drops out
3a) Gove drops out and Leadsom gets crowned
3b) Gove and Leadsom take it to the membership, and since Gove is obviously such an arsehole, whom few would want to serve under, work with or be led by, Leadsom soundly beats him
I have been lurking, but from the safety of a different planet. What planet are you on these days?
Times good enough for you, your worship
The value of the FTSE is the present value IN POUNDS of future earnings, and tangible things like stock and plant, and intangible things like confidence. The pound has now descended and if Carney is right concerning QE, it will descend further. Because of this the value of future earnings IN POUNDS has risen
To use a somewhat crude metaphor: It's not that the dick has gotten bigger, it's the fact that the ruler has shrunk.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
I'm glad on Team May, looks like the Tombstone wing of the party is backing Leadsom.
How good was Sprinter Sacre's victory at Cheltenham ?! - Saw it in the flesh and even had a bit of money on. Very emotional day !
Michael Gove MP ✔ @Gove2016
The country voted for no more politics as usual. No more business as usual. I am the candidate for change. #Gove2016
When was the last time that the governing party chose someone not even in the Cabinet as PM?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/01/rejected-remain-campaign-posters-revealed-by-ad-agencies
Not totally convinced. The Farage pocket one sounds better.
It is good news as long as the drop is reasonably modest. We want the bubble to deflate, not burst.