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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Leadsom now or wait for the race to evolve
On May 25h while perusing the Betfair next CON leader odds I saw that Andrea Leadson was available at 90 and immediately took the few pounds that was available that price. It then slipped down to 65, 55 46 nd 44 and I took that as well. My next bet on Leadsom was at 9.31am, just after Cameron had resigned, when I got 65.
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Edit and First like TM4PM
I guess current circumstances give more support for a swift resolution, and they'd quite like to be in a position to point and laugh at the Labour party.
May is a remainer. They lost.
http://www.gove2016.co.uk/
I'd probably cash out, things could move very quickly on Tuesday, although she's unlikely to come last so could well tighten further if the race continues.
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Leadsome was second but now 3rd with 14, one ahead of Gove but 5 behind Crabbe.
I still feel a multiple-withdrawl stitch-up coming on next week. "For the sake of the country..." It is why it would make sense for May not to "lend" any of her support to any other candidates. In that well-worn phrase from Neil Kinnock "grind the bastards into the dust". We've seen how wrong things can go when people lend their support to say Jeremy Corbyn. Look - and learn.
Profit or a gamble? May be best to weight for the results of the first vote, if we are sure Leadsom will survive that and if the Cash Out offers are still available (mine seem to switch on and off)
37% Tory, 27% Labour is where we are at.
Backstabbing Bastard's Bonhomie Bravado
Thank you Boris!!
She's a smart operator. During the campaign she went out of her way to propose leaving the ECJ, to keep the leavers onside. After the campaign she proposed to stay in the ECJ, to reach out to the remainers. And she has got remarkably little stick for her flexibility.
Do you think the fact of May or Leadsom's election/coronation will have any impact on the outcome of the Labour party leadership struggle?
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.
I really don't get it. It's bizarre.
I especially don't get some supposed ideological purity trumping proven ability within the Tory party, which - if aspires to anything good - is the triumph over what works over untested ideas.
That period in the summer/Autumn of 2007 was very profitable too.
Kill DfiD and move a (small) part of its remaining functionality to FCO for disaster relief - we really don't need the foreign virtue signalling as much as we need to save the money wasted on it.
Kill Energy altogether.
And finally get after the quangos with some vigour.
Theresa, Dave was a lousy metrosexual gimp with not a reforming bone in his body. You don't need to ape that. Go with the people.
I am getting confused. ECJ or ECHR? I had thought she was talking about the latter.
Why, for God's sake, why???
On Labour I haven't a clue, and have various small bets on long shots that look most unlikely to pay off.
The leave/remain split at 10/10 to vote in the GE is 56-44.
That suggests that the voters will not back down. It's Scotland YesSNP 2014/2015.
Can't see past May now, Leadsom is too inexperienced as is Crabb, Fox is, well, Fox so that leaves Gove and May.
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
- The Home Secretary who has totally failed to bring migration down to the tens of thousands.
- Amber Rudd's bag-carrier.
Is it too late to draft Portillo?
Which is sooner :
Falconer Resigns or Gove Speech Ends
£6.2bn matched in the last hour ....
May and Gove detest each other. If May wins I'm not sure Gove gets anything at all.
Perhaps we should ask one of the experts who predicted it would be a thousand points lower at least
Then again....
I can't rule out Gove or Leadsom getting it, if they are one of the final two.
It would be preferable if the others dropped out, and we had a coronation of May next week - and get on with the slow process of sorting out this bloody mess....
Agree on Greening. Would swap Osborne and Grayling? Leadsom for chancellor would be a possibility - she clearly wants it and might swing behind May in return?
@politicshome: Tory eurosceptic Bernard Jenkin reveals he is backing Andrea Leadsom to be PM. #wato
For example a lot of my bets on this market prior to May 2015 were on next Tory Leader, since then, a lot of my bets have been on next PM.
And for the Labour Party .... Opportunity Knocks .... and friends I mean that most sincerely ....
No role.
Also the Bank of England has hinted that we will get more Quantitative Easier (printing money).
"The one consequence of QE we can rely on, recent history shows, is rising stock markets. "
https://wealth.barclays.com/en_gb/smartinvestor/market-review/what-does-quantitative-easing-mean-for-investors.html
This is not a good thing.
Mike hasn't got the bandwidth ....
See the decline in £ at the same time...
twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/748821995895349248
I guess that Gove going on for so long, and covering so many points, he is trying to show that Gove Is A Many Splendored Thing