Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.
Across the South, maybe. Not sure prices in the North need fall.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.
Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy. Far better to have a Tory REMAINIAC in office who can say, Yes, well, I did say this might happen....
A LEAVER PM would be totally exposed, and could easily take the party to defeat in 2020,
I think it could be the other way round. A leaver could say "short term pain, long term gain, Battle of Britain, don't worry, you made the right decision etc.". A remainer can't - telling your voters they were wrong doesn't look good, and it all sounds a bit Project Fear - in which case you're opening yourself up to an attack from UKIP for waivering.
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
If the contest stays civil then Leadsom et al will be in cabinet if May wins, she is trying to appear practical and hard nosed so ejecting rivals would be lunacy.
We just have to hope that PM May comes in and says "it's EEA" very soon, to calm the markets. There are still REMAINIACS out there hoping we won't trigger A50 but the markets - including property - make that untenable. The longer the uncertainty, the more the chaos, and the greater the chance we will enter something quite apocalyptic.
We don't have ANY choice. It has to be EEA. Even John McDonnell gets that.
"When we do trigger A50, it will be EEA". Then it's EEA whatever. She might as well say "when", just to keep the raving Leavers happy.
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
If that is true (it does come from Breitbart, who can be quite excitable) then this alone means we were right to leave the EU. It is fundamentally undemocratic. Non-democracy is in its DNA and it will never, ever change.
"“We’ve [Leave.eu] conducted extensive polling of our one million supporters and discovered that 43% typically vote Conservative, including as many as 30,000 paid-up party members.
“The data indicates that Andrea Leadsom is the clear frontrunner among those supporters,” he said."
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.
Well done Brexit.
No it won't.
I am really looking forward to pointing out exactly how stupid you have been in a years time. Assuming of course you have the courage to actually hang around when you are shown to have been crying wolf.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.
RE: House prices in London. With the fall in £ against the $ they are cheaper before any fall in the £ price tag and will now suck in even more foreign money. What is going on are some folk using the referendum as a means to pay a bit less a reverse form of gazumping. A temporary situation.
"“We’ve [Leave.eu] conducted extensive polling of our one million supporters and discovered that 43% typically vote Conservative, including as many as 30,000 paid-up party members.
“The data indicates that Andrea Leadsom is the clear frontrunner among those supporters,” he said."
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.
Did you hear his Today interview this morning? It was classic Ken Clarke "Yes, I know all about Conservative leadership contests, it used to be a hobby of mine. I've given up the bad habit now, though".
Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.
Maybe the EU should put us in special measures and send in their own team to run the country?
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
This must be some new meaning of the word "liberal" of which I wasn't previously aware.
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.
I think you've got ConHome and LibDemvoice mixed up.
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs100\0 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.
Did you hear his Today interview this morning? It was classic Ken Clarke "Yes, I know all about Conservative leadership contests, it used to be a hobby of mine. I've given up the bad habit now, though".
I only saw excerpts of it on twitter, seemed to be in good form
Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief.
This was written up in a BBC web story earlier. But the commissioner did not sound (to me) as confident in her statements as the web story suggested. But if it's true we will have to sit out a few years on WTO rules, with all the common market stuff gone (presumably including the financial passport) that would surely be a huge game-changer.
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left. "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete. A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate. The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect. ...
Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave. It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU. Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit. ... [E]ven a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.
What's the political upshot here? I'd be astonished if Germany, in particular, was looking forward to the idea of Britain sitting there on WTO terms for years, and if the new government wants to take the EEA route would rather maintain seamless continuity of Britain's membership of the single market rather than kick us out it via our EU exit then take us back into the EEA years later.
Does this all have any implications for the argument over a Swiss/ Norwegian / Canadian style deal?
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
If that is true (it does come from Breitbart, who can be quite excitable) then this alone means we were right to leave the EU. It is fundamentally undemocratic. Non-democracy is in its DNA and it will never, ever change.
The EU have previous form on this.
In 2000, the EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria after the Far-right FPO was allowed into the ruling coalition government. (Haider's lot)
Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
Oh, by Britain's wealth you meant bricks and mortar.
London will be the most effected and the market is well up in recent years. It can afford a small decrease.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.
Well done Brexit.
In the height of the financial crash and Lehman Bros going bankrupt GDP dropped by 7.5%. Do you think it will be better or worse than that?
Not totally convinced. The Farage pocket one sounds better.
In hindsight they clearly needed to really convince people that no matter how poor they are now, it can always get worse. Whereas project fear focused too much on ABC1 economic issues (falling house prices, how will the City cope etc). So less of the "why take the risk" approach, which as discussed on here, doesn't apply to those who perceive they have nothing to lose.
Maybe something like an image of Farage or Boris jumping out of a frying pan into an offscreen fire
Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
Well I doubt Ozzie peddling his long term economic plan would go down well Nick.
I tell you one thing, Brexit, and all those associated with it will be punished for their economic illiteracy. And, the Remain Tories will be punished for being so stupid and hubristic to allow a vote.
Where they go....that is upto Labour to provide a relatively non threatening home.
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief.
This was written up in a BBC web story earlier. But the commissioner did not sound (to me) as confident in her statements as the web story suggested. But if it's true we will have to sit out a few years on WTO rules, with all the common market stuff gone (presumably including the financial passport) that would surely be a huge game-changer.
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left. "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete. A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate. The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect. ...
Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave. It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU. Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit. ... [E]ven a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.
What's the political upshot here? I'd be astonished if Germany, in particular, was looking forward to the idea of Britain sitting there on WTO terms for years, and if the new government wants to take the EEA route would rather maintain seamless continuity of Britain's membership of the single market rather than kick us out it via our EU exit then take us back into the EEA years later.
Does this all have any implications for the argument over a Swiss/ Norwegian / Canadian style deal?
My instinct is if Britain doesn't want it, Germany doesn't want it, the EU doesn't want it, it won't happen.
Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago On a General Election this year: Support: 52% Oppose: 32% (via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
General Election this year:
Support: 52% █████████████████████████
Oppose: 32% ███████████████▌
I'm guessing the Tories would prefer to wait for the new boundaries to come into effect before having a GE. Could wipe out 20% of Labour's seats in Wales.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
Same is going to be true more or less however the house prices come down. Which is why lots of government have chickened out from doing it, doesn't mean it doesn't need to happen.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
Nope... The 2014 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.
Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
populist... you mean giving voters what they want, its an interesting idea I suppose, not sure it is going to catch on though.
Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy. Far better to have a Tory REMAINIAC in office who can say, Yes, well, I did say this might happen....
A LEAVER PM would be totally exposed, and could easily take the party to defeat in 2020,
I think it could be the other way round. A leaver could say "short term pain, long term gain, Battle of Britain, don't worry, you made the right decision etc.". A remainer can't - telling your voters they were wrong doesn't look good, and it all sounds a bit Project Fear - in which case you're opening yourself up to an attack from UKIP for waivering.
Project Fear has so far turned out to be a pretty accurate forecast ( Yes I know it is early days ) A £ sterling that has devalued 15% against the worlds basket case currencies such as the Vietnamese Dong , Bangladeshi Taka and Guatamalan Quetzel . Im sure it will help our exports to these important trading nations . Meanwhile UKIP seem to be giving up fighting elections . 25 council by elections in July have just 8 UKIP candidates . 5 more by elections have nominations closing at 4 pm today .UKIP are unlikely to fight more than 2 of these .
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.
Well done Brexit.
In the height of the financial crash and Lehman Bros going bankrupt GDP dropped by 7.5%. Do you think it will be better or worse than that?
It won't be as bad in terms of the overall drop from start to finish- but during a recession you have to take into account the growth that doesn't happen too.
I'll give it a 5-6% recession (top to bottom) and a 4-5% add on for the growth we could have had without Brexit.
A 10% tsunami on our nations wealth will cripple our public finances mind. Little wonder Ozzie is giving up on the 2020 predictions. Our debt is likely to go to around 130% plus of GDP- years and years and years of austerity are coming.
Brexit Britain. Get used to it. We are going to be a much poorer country. Still we can bring back metric measures.
Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
And 30 somethings routinely having to live with their mums and dads is a terrible thing for everybody. Can I suggest that you are overreacting a tad to a *reported* reduction in *asking prices* at the top (so far) of the insanest property bubble in history (so far)?
You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
The UK economy has been 'boosted' by high house prices in three ways:
1. They've brought in a lot of money from foreign investors, allowing us to run a sizeable current account deficit. 2. They have meant that a lot of people feel financially secure during the downtown ("well, I've got £100,000 in my house"), which meant that the UK savings rate didn't spike. 3. They've stimulated construction activity.
The problem with the first two of these things is that they've fundamentally unbalanced the UK economy. The UK has the worst current account deficit in the developed world, one of the worst budget deficits, the lowest savings rate, and huge amounts of consumer debt.
In fact, if you look at the UK economy in 2016, it looks awfully like the Spanish one in 2006, with similar levels (and types) of imbalances. We have the advantage of a flexible currency to take some of the strain, but realistically we are going to have to see our savings rate go from 4% to 11%, and that's going to be horrendous. The last time something like that happened was 1990-92, and saw house prices fall 40% in real terms, and unemployment double.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
My instinct is if Britain doesn't want it, Germany doesn't want it, the EU doesn't want it, it won't happen.
Precisely. The Commissioner is talking bollocks.
Also, it's trivially obvious what the solution is. They just need to call the talks 'negotiations about exit arrangements' rather than a 'trade deal', and that fixes the problem.
Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
And 30 somethings routinely having to live with their mums and dads is a terrible thing for everybody. Can I suggest that you are overreacting a tad to a *reported* reduction in *asking prices* at the top (so far) of the insanest property bubble in history (so far)?
I think you'll find the property bubble is SE centric....most of Britain has hardly recovered after 2008. And the SE is the economic dynamo for our economy.
A property crash which is coming- at least 20% maybe more will cripple our economy.
Homebuilders hard hit by Brexit - might damage their confidence going forward. One of @currystar posts on this pre-vote that started to change my mind on the whole caboodle.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.
The estimates in the papers over the weekend was 5% outside London, 10-20% in London.
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
I'm allowing the strike tags, but no colour and no big text
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.
I think we're looking at 30-40% inner London (unfortunately for you and I) and maybe 20-30% in outer London, 20% in the rest of the country.
Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago On a General Election this year: Support: 52% Oppose: 32% (via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
General Election this year:
Support: 52% █████████████████████████
Oppose: 32% ███████████████▌
I'm guessing the Tories would prefer to wait for the new boundaries to come into effect before having a GE. Could wipe out 20% of Labour's seats in Wales.
Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
That assumes Andrea Leadsom wins vs Theresa. I don't think she would. If the race was being conducted in opposition then I think Leadsom would have a good shot, but whoever wins this becomes PM and has a tricky few years ahead of them. I think the members will pick who they know and someone they can trust to be a safe pair of hands. This leadership election has come two years too early for Leadsom
In opposition several years ahead of the next GE would be a reasonable chance for Leadsome - a day away from being Prime Minister, not.
Homebuilders hard hit by Brexit - might damage their confidence going forward. One of @currystar posts on this pre-vote that started to change my mind on the whole caboodle.
Housebuilding is one of those policy areas which needs better central planning. Leaving it up the market hasn't worked as companies like to have their cake and eat it by restricting supply.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
Of all the problems currently facing the UK, house prices not being sufficiently high doesn't really strike me as top of the list.
You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
If I may very politely say so, Sean, there speaks a homeowner.
It's a massive, massive problem for this country how many people are unable to afford a house and have no prospect of ever realistically doing so. It's masked, of course, in the pleasant circles that you and I move in, because we're of a generation where most people have houses, and because people have alternative sources of money - inheritances, etc.
I'd say we need much more than a 10% correction; a 25% correction wouldn't be the end of the world: it would maybe, in Manchester, take us all the way back to 2012.
And I take your points about confidence, etc, but this part of our economy is built on sand.
I'm nt cheerfully advocating a house price crash; I know there will be losers; this isn't a problem with an easy solution. But I hope ne day that my daughters might own their own houses, when they grow up, and at the moment this looks a pipe dream. Along with any prospect f me ever retiring.
This isn't a pro- or anti-Brexit post, by the way; just a lament about house prices.
O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire: It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?
They didn't in the Subprime Crisis. I think you might need a lie down in a darkened room.
Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....
I'm allowing the strike tags, but no colour and no big text
"While anti-Corbyn MPs believe they need to rally around a single challenger, there is no consensus among members as who the obvious choice would be. In a head-to-head with Corbyn, Angela Eagle would lose by 40 per cent to Corbyn’s 50 per cent, Tom Watson by 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and Dan Jarvis by 35 per cent to 52 per cent."
Basic tactical error of the Labour rebels is that they needed to have a credible alternative to Corbyn who would win in the membership election.
By not having a candidate to beat Corbyn, the rebels have demonstrated how weak they are and passed the initiative to Corbyn and Co.
Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
I am not sure about this question, but I would create a three minute video of everything that has unfolded this past week and show it to our party leaders in Xmas 2014 before the run up to the 2015 election.
I suspect at the very least Ed Miliband would not have resigned on defeat saving us from the whole Corbyn thing
Cameron would have approached the referendum very differently, if not shelving the whole thing.
Clegg would have resigned on the spot, to be replaced by Cable or a popular LD.
Sturgeon would have died from laughter.
Ironically, Farage would have rejected the whole thing as a fiction.
Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
A good question! I wouldn't change my 2015 GE Vote ....but (and this is a very big but), the result of the EU referendum means that my vote in the next GE is up for grabs. A moderate, reforming party is attractive, but only if they have fully accepted Brexit.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?
They'd still be okay. RBS would have to raise capital, but beyond that I think there wouldn't be a lot going on. The banking sector is extremely well funded this time around. Leverage is about 8x across the sector vs around 40x in 2008. The capital buffers will hold.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.
The estimates in the papers over the weekend was 5% outside London, 10-20% in London.
I was living in Balham when the 1988 bubble burst - prices fell 40% and took a decade to recover !!
'Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.'
How's the Italian bank bailout going,have they found the € 40 billion yet ? I see their pals in Germany have blocked them from breaking Eurozone regulations.
It seems Portugal needs a similar deal and no doubt Greece will soon be joining the queue.
'Is Europe In Trouble Again: Hints Of Portuguese, Italian Bank Bailouts Suggest Not All Is Well Zero Hedge - 23 hours ago
Italian banks dive as Merkel dismisses bailout hopes Financial Times - 1 day ago
Not sure why leavers would be worried about may as a remainers. There are all leavers now. The only things that would stop leaving would be so major even a leaver would stop it and that isn't happening.
The only argument might be a remainers might not implement everything promised but leavers acknowledge that won't be the case with them either - a series of possibilities and all that.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.
The estimates in the papers over the weekend was 5% outside London, 10-20% in London.
I was living in Balham when the 1988 bubble burst - prices fell 40% and took a decade to recover !!
"Post-Brexit gloom about UK residential property has taken hold, with investors pricing in a 5 per cent fall in home values over the coming year." - according the the FT anyway.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.
I think we're looking at 30-40% inner London (unfortunately for you and I) and maybe 20-30% in outer London, 20% in the rest of the country.
My view is similar - we're essentially looking at a bounce back to about 2012. (When prices were still too high for y liking, but that's another issue). At which point the market will bottom out for a bit and then start to rise again.
But how much of this is down to Brexit? Surely a correction of this magnitude or similar would have happened anyway after the turbo-charged boom of the last four years?
Does anyone know when the EPLP NEC member departs? Is it entwined with Article 50 or do the Labour Party have to manually remove the post from their constitution...
I only ask because I doubt the current EPLP NEC member supports Corbyn and he is no doubt a Eurosceptic... will this strengthen the control of the hard left?
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.
"While anti-Corbyn MPs believe they need to rally around a single challenger, there is no consensus among members as who the obvious choice would be. In a head-to-head with Corbyn, Angela Eagle would lose by 40 per cent to Corbyn’s 50 per cent, Tom Watson by 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and Dan Jarvis by 35 per cent to 52 per cent."
Basic tactical error of the Labour rebels is that they needed to have a credible alternative to Corbyn who would win in the membership election.
By not having a candidate to beat Corbyn, the rebels have demonstrated how weak they are and passed the initiative to Corbyn and Co.
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
The UK economy has been 'boosted' by high house prices in three ways:
1. They've brought in a lot of money from foreign investors, allowing us to run a sizeable current account deficit. 2. They have meant that a lot of people feel financially secure during the downtown ("well, I've got £100,000 in my house"), which meant that the UK savings rate didn't spike. 3. They've stimulated construction activity.
The problem with the first two of these things is that they've fundamentally unbalanced the UK economy. The UK has the worst current account deficit in the developed world, one of the worst budget deficits, the lowest savings rate, and huge amounts of consumer debt.
In fact, if you look at the UK economy in 2016, it looks awfully like the Spanish one in 2006, with similar levels (and types) of imbalances. We have the advantage of a flexible currency to take some of the strain, but realistically we are going to have to see our savings rate go from 4% to 11%, and that's going to be horrendous. The last time something like that happened was 1990-92, and saw house prices fall 40% in real terms, and unemployment double.
Well that's cheering.
And that's just the effect of house prices.
Add in the fall in inward investment, the decline of the City, the slowing economies of our post-Brexit neighbours, etc etc etc, and we could be looking at a 10-20% drop in GDP. Which is like the economic damage done by a mild civil war.
Fab!
But, as I keep saying, this is not inevitable. The fecking Tories have to admit all this, and go for EEA immediately, and stop the madness. Confidence will return, and quickly, if investors, homebuyers, bankers, know that not much will change, at least at first, as we keep all our economic ties with the EU.
I think we're looking at a price drop whatever happens, obviously it won't be as big if we stay in the single market, but I'd guess 20% for those of us in inner London is fair.
"While anti-Corbyn MPs believe they need to rally around a single challenger, there is no consensus among members as who the obvious choice would be. In a head-to-head with Corbyn, Angela Eagle would lose by 40 per cent to Corbyn’s 50 per cent, Tom Watson by 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and Dan Jarvis by 35 per cent to 52 per cent."
Basic tactical error of the Labour rebels is that they needed to have a credible alternative to Corbyn who would win in the membership election.
By not having a candidate to beat Corbyn, the rebels have demonstrated how weak they are and passed the initiative to Corbyn and Co.
David Miliband 6.2/1 on betfair....
If I were Angela Eagle, trailing Corbyn by only 10% I would be confident of beating him. After all every major figure in the PLP past and present could come out in support.
But, as I keep saying, this is not inevitable. The fecking Tories have to admit all this, and go for EEA immediately, and stop the madness. Confidence will return, and quickly, if investors, homebuyers, bankers, know that not much will change, at least at first, as we keep all our economic ties with the EU.
I am interested in how you feel joining the EEA will stop the slowing economies of our post-Brexit neighbours. Or why you feel there will be a drop in inward investment in the medium term given the number of commonwealth and other countries lining up over the last couple of days to make trade agreements with us. But mostly I am interested in why you think this will cause a larger drop in GDP than the entire Subprime Crisis and Lehman's crash ?
You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
The UK economy has been 'boosted' by high house prices in three ways:
1. They've brought in a lot of money from foreign investors, allowing us to run a sizeable current account deficit. 2. They have meant that a lot of people feel financially secure during the downtown ("well, I've got £100,000 in my house"), which meant that the UK savings rate didn't spike. 3. They've stimulated construction activity.
The problem with the first two of these things is that they've fundamentally unbalanced the UK economy. The UK has the worst current account deficit in the developed world, one of the worst budget deficits, the lowest savings rate, and huge amounts of consumer debt.
In fact, if you look at the UK economy in 2016, it looks awfully like the Spanish one in 2006, with similar levels (and types) of imbalances. We have the advantage of a flexible currency to take some of the strain, but realistically we are going to have to see our savings rate go from 4% to 11%, and that's going to be horrendous. The last time something like that happened was 1990-92, and saw house prices fall 40% in real terms, and unemployment double.
Well that's cheering.
And that's just the effect of house prices.
Add in the fall in inward investment, the decline of the City, the slowing economies of our post-Brexit neighbours, etc etc etc, and we could be looking at a 10-20% drop in GDP. Which is like the economic damage done by a mild civil war.
Fab!
But, as I keep saying, this is not inevitable. The fecking Tories have to admit all this, and go for EEA immediately, and stop the madness. Confidence will return, and quickly, if investors, homebuyers, bankers, know that not much will change, at least at first, as we keep all our economic ties with the EU.
Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago On a General Election this year: Support: 52% Oppose: 32% (via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
General Election this year:
Support: 52% █████████████████████████
Oppose: 32% ███████████████▌
Voters at the general election selected more Conservative MPs than from other parties. We have a parliamentary government where the MPs chose the government and the governing party choose their Prime Minister.
The Conservative manifesto spelt out that there would be a referendum on the EU membership.
So the government is following the constitution and the path set out. There should not be a general election until 2020.
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
So we're not back to where we were before the crash in 2008? I am surprised at that.
EDIT: I suppose this is the UK figure. It would be interesting to see a Greater South East chart. I reckon house prices have been pretty static in many places outside the South East since 2008.
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
If that is true (it does come from Breitbart, who can be quite excitable) then this alone means we were right to leave the EU. It is fundamentally undemocratic. Non-democracy is in its DNA and it will never, ever change.
The EU have previous form on this.
In 2000, the EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria after the Far-right FPO was allowed into the ruling coalition government. (Haider's lot)
(EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria after the Far-right FPO was allowed into the ruling coalition government) ...it is all about sharing sovereignty and it makes life fairer etc the europhiles will say.
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
Does the rise in house prices get reflected in GDP in any way?
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?
In dollar terms, over a decade IMO that's certainly possible, if not likely.
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
Does the rise in house prices get reflected in GDP in any way?
Yep, increased rent goes to the banks and doesn't get spent on other things (i.e. its a drag on growth)...
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
So we're not back to where we were before the crash in 2008? I am surprised at that.
EDIT: I suppose this is the UK figure. It would be interesting to see a Greater South East chart. I reckon house prices have been pretty static in many places outside the South East since 2008.
Depends where you are.
Edit: Oh I see you edited to say that! House prices still down in NI and large parts of the North of England.
Comments
Well done Brexit.
At least the campaign or the agency had the sense to decide against using them.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/juncker-vows-to-use-new-powers-to-block-the-far-right-nq5r5tnqq
“The data indicates that Andrea Leadsom is the clear frontrunner among those supporters,” he said."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/01/brexit-group-leave-eu-backs-andrea-leadsom-pm/
I am really looking forward to pointing out exactly how stupid you have been in a years time. Assuming of course you have the courage to actually hang around when you are shown to have been crying wolf.
Learned something new today: there is such a thing as a crab-eating fox.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crab-eating_fox
On a General Election this year:
Support: 52%
Oppose: 32%
(via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
What is going on are some folk using the referendum as a means to pay a bit less a reverse form of gazumping. A temporary situation.
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07j8mqp/newsnight-30062016
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief.
This was written up in a BBC web story earlier. But the commissioner did not sound (to me) as confident in her statements as the web story suggested. But if it's true we will have to sit out a few years on WTO rules, with all the common market stuff gone (presumably including the financial passport) that would surely be a huge game-changer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left. "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.
A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate. The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect. ...
Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave. It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU. Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit. ... [E]ven a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.
What's the political upshot here? I'd be astonished if Germany, in particular, was looking forward to the idea of Britain sitting there on WTO terms for years, and if the new government wants to take the EEA route would rather maintain seamless continuity of Britain's membership of the single market rather than kick us out it via our EU exit then take us back into the EEA years later.
Does this all have any implications for the argument over a Swiss/ Norwegian / Canadian style deal?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/01/gove-attacks-globalisation-says-no-article-50-before-2017/
Is that a problem?
In 2000, the EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria after the Far-right FPO was allowed into the ruling coalition government. (Haider's lot)
London will be the most effected and the market is well up in recent years. It can afford a small decrease.
Maybe something like an image of Farage or Boris jumping out of a frying pan into an offscreen fire
Support: 52%
█████████████████████████
Oppose: 32%
███████████████▌
I tell you one thing, Brexit, and all those associated with it will be punished for their economic illiteracy. And, the Remain Tories will be punished for being so stupid and hubristic to allow a vote.
Where they go....that is upto Labour to provide a relatively non threatening home.
I think there may be some misunderstanding there, in that we have to trigger article 50 before beginning to negotiate.
In any event, as she says article 50 has never been used before, so they'll be making it up as they go.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?usp=sharing&pref=2&pli=1&sle=true
A £ sterling that has devalued 15% against the worlds basket case currencies such as the Vietnamese Dong , Bangladeshi Taka and Guatamalan Quetzel . Im sure it will help our exports to these important trading nations .
Meanwhile UKIP seem to be giving up fighting elections . 25 council by elections in July have just 8 UKIP candidates . 5 more by elections have nominations closing at 4 pm today .UKIP are unlikely to fight more than 2 of these .
I'll give it a 5-6% recession (top to bottom) and a 4-5% add on for the growth we could have had without Brexit.
A 10% tsunami on our nations wealth will cripple our public finances mind. Little wonder Ozzie is giving up on the 2020 predictions. Our debt is likely to go to around 130% plus of GDP- years and years and years of austerity are coming.
Brexit Britain. Get used to it. We are going to be a much poorer country. Still we can bring back metric measures.
1. They've brought in a lot of money from foreign investors, allowing us to run a sizeable current account deficit.
2. They have meant that a lot of people feel financially secure during the downtown ("well, I've got £100,000 in my house"), which meant that the UK savings rate didn't spike.
3. They've stimulated construction activity.
The problem with the first two of these things is that they've fundamentally unbalanced the UK economy. The UK has the worst current account deficit in the developed world, one of the worst budget deficits, the lowest savings rate, and huge amounts of consumer debt.
In fact, if you look at the UK economy in 2016, it looks awfully like the Spanish one in 2006, with similar levels (and types) of imbalances. We have the advantage of a flexible currency to take some of the strain, but realistically we are going to have to see our savings rate go from 4% to 11%, and that's going to be horrendous. The last time something like that happened was 1990-92, and saw house prices fall 40% in real terms, and unemployment double.
A property crash which is coming- at least 20% maybe more will cripple our economy.
Homebuilders hard hit by Brexit - might damage their confidence going forward.
One of @currystar posts on this pre-vote that started to change my mind on the whole caboodle.
It's a massive, massive problem for this country how many people are unable to afford a house and have no prospect of ever realistically doing so. It's masked, of course, in the pleasant circles that you and I move in, because we're of a generation where most people have houses, and because people have alternative sources of money - inheritances, etc.
I'd say we need much more than a 10% correction; a 25% correction wouldn't be the end of the world: it would maybe, in Manchester, take us all the way back to 2012.
And I take your points about confidence, etc, but this part of our economy is built on sand.
I'm nt cheerfully advocating a house price crash; I know there will be losers; this isn't a problem with an easy solution. But I hope ne day that my daughters might own their own houses, when they grow up, and at the moment this looks a pipe dream. Along with any prospect f me ever retiring.
This isn't a pro- or anti-Brexit post, by the way; just a lament about house prices.
"While anti-Corbyn MPs believe they need to rally around a single challenger, there is no consensus among members as who the obvious choice would be. In a head-to-head with Corbyn, Angela Eagle would lose by 40 per cent to Corbyn’s 50 per cent, Tom Watson by 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and Dan Jarvis by 35 per cent to 52 per cent."
Basic tactical error of the Labour rebels is that they needed to have a credible alternative to Corbyn who would win in the membership election.
By not having a candidate to beat Corbyn, the rebels have demonstrated how weak they are and passed the initiative to Corbyn and Co.
I suspect at the very least Ed Miliband would not have resigned on defeat saving us from the whole Corbyn thing
Cameron would have approached the referendum very differently, if not shelving the whole thing.
Clegg would have resigned on the spot, to be replaced by Cable or a popular LD.
Sturgeon would have died from laughter.
Ironically, Farage would have rejected the whole thing as a fiction.
'Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.'
How's the Italian bank bailout going,have they found the € 40 billion yet ?
I see their pals in Germany have blocked them from breaking Eurozone regulations.
It seems Portugal needs a similar deal and no doubt Greece will soon be joining the queue.
'Is Europe In Trouble Again: Hints Of Portuguese, Italian Bank Bailouts Suggest Not All Is Well
Zero Hedge - 23 hours ago
Italian banks dive as Merkel dismisses bailout hopes
Financial Times - 1 day ago
The only argument might be a remainers might not implement everything promised but leavers acknowledge that won't be the case with them either - a series of possibilities and all that.
But how much of this is down to Brexit? Surely a correction of this magnitude or similar would have happened anyway after the turbo-charged boom of the last four years?
I only ask because I doubt the current EPLP NEC member supports Corbyn and he is no doubt a Eurosceptic... will this strengthen the control of the hard left?
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
http://www.cityam.com/244483/london-retain-financial-centre
Latest per Con Home:
May - 84
Crabb - 19
Leadsom - 16
Gove - 14
Fox - 6
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/whos-backing-who-our-running-list-of-mps-supporting-each-leadership-candidate.html
Changes compared to Con Home close of play last night:
May - up 5
Crabb - down 3
Leadsom - up 2
Gove - up 1
Fox - down 3
The Conservative manifesto spelt out that there would be a referendum on the EU membership.
So the government is following the constitution and the path set out. There should not be a general election until 2020.
EDIT: I suppose this is the UK figure. It would be interesting to see a Greater South East chart. I reckon house prices have been pretty static in many places outside the South East since 2008.
...it is all about sharing sovereignty and it makes life fairer etc the europhiles will say.
'The estimates in the papers over the weekend was 5% outside London, 10-20% in London.'
Good news,looks like my daughter will be able to afford to buy a flat in London.
Edit: Oh I see you edited to say that! House prices still down in NI and large parts of the North of England.