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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ paradoxical leadership contest
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ paradoxical leadership contest
If Leave had gone down to a narrow defeat, Boris Johnson would have had all the power with none of the responsibility. He would also have had a senior Cabinet role for a year or two, and a chance to prove himself at that level. There’d be no immediate crisis to manage, and any trouble from Europe – and there would surely have been some – would play to his advantage.
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BBC PolEd says
At this point remaining in the EU would require a different deal with the EU, a second referendum, and a popular majority for that deal. Whilst all these things are feasible in theory, the logistics are against it: there is nobody in the EU and UK governments who is minded to construct such a deal, and nobody in the UK government who wishes to legislate for a second referendum, and so on. So it appears that Brexit is, however regrettable, inevitable unless something changes.
So we move from trying to save the ship to trying to choose the lifeboat. Passengers on a sinking ship should choose the nearest lifeboat, not the best. The EEA/EFTA deal has the inestimable advantage of already being in existence and seaworthy, and should therefore be the quickest to join. So we should join that. I am aware it has freedom of movement and is objectionable to many LEAVErs but this can be legitimately spun as a temporary measure to provide respite whilst a longer-lasting deal is assembled in the 2020's with due care.
My present concern is that there are currently no competent people in Government willing or able to do this, and the candidates for PM are unable or unwilling to do this.
Consequently at the moment the most likely outcome appears to be a lengthy renegotiation of everything with everybody, without the numbers or quality of personnel to do it competently.
Looks like only 4 have any serious chance.
Stewart Jackson just added to Boris column per Guido - now (including the candidate themselves):
Boris - 28
Crabb - 17
May - 9
Leadsom - nobody yet
In any case, in 2016, we just got a test of the electoral success of the Labour "moderates"' formula in the EU Referendum -- the "Remain" campaign was designed by some of the leading "moderates" like Chuka Umunna and Emma Reynolds. The main principles (supporting the economic status quo, being the party of big business, being culturally liberal, being "internationalist") are exactly the principles that the "moderates" want Labour to follow. It failed spectacularly in the referendum, so why on earth would it be a good idea to model official Labour strategy on it?
That really should have been items 1, 2 and 3 in that budget.
Trying to get to 5 million unemployed, one person at a time.
No Surrender
No Compromise
Popcorn
I fear she may well be about to prove that "Corbyn is not doing well" is not at all the same thing as "there is someone available who would do better than Corbyn".
Am going through Ataturk airport in Istanbul in 6 weeks time, hope everyone is alright there.
She reads Boris's articles in the Telegraph avidly and always agrees with everything he says.
She has just told me she is supporting Theresa May for leader.
Good source says Andy Burnham about to quit Shadow Cabinet, and three people appointed to it yesterday
60/40?
I would not vote for Johnson's Tories unless he came up with some stunning policies, and he won't.
I chose the pic, I hope we'll see more of it post September 9th
As I saod last thread. Theresa becomes leader advocates and agrees EEA membership with the EU, calls a snap election vs Corbyn who just about holds on, watches Labour get destroyed in the north by UKIP. After winning she makes Boris chancellor to deliver the Leave prospectus and the millions per week to the NHS. In one stroke she has defeated her rival and decapitated Labour while delivering an economic settlement that will placate most Tory voters who plumped for Leave as we will be out of the EU and have control over our laws and non-EU trade.
Theresa May could be a modern day Michael Corleone at the end of the Godfather.
Based on the way things are going right now, Baron could end up winning...
And even the Republicans have only done a single electoral handover to another Republican since the Great Depression (Ronald Reagan -> his vice-president George H W Bush in 1988).
FWIW my initial impressions are that whilst they appreciate Boris's entertainment value and see beyond his buffonery to a more serious politician he still lacks the depth to be PM. May is a safe pair of hands for the challenging times ahead.
My experience over the last few days is that it is much worse. Especially the fear and uncertainty.
Still, at least you can find it funny.
" It focuses on military capabilities and anti-terrorism as much as on job opportunities, inclusive societies and human rights."
it's the Peace Corps mark2
http://cecaust.com.au/releases/2016_06_27_Corbyn.html
And I have said on here before, remember that Mr Corbyn has been informed and knows all about the activity on 'that road' that would damn many of his enemies in the PLP right now. Now that would be the ultimate nuclear option!
Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh
Interesting thought. Ministers of Crown Act 1937 gives Speaker power to choose official leader of Opposition if uncertainty over who it is.
Now that's an unexpected outcome of Brexit.
Mind you, we'll probably end up with the worst combination of all: boring and ineffective.
A boss once told me that engineering is at its best when no-one considers that it's there. It just works. Perhaps the same should be true of politicians.
(obviously he wont show up).
Chorus: "This calls for MoreEuropeman!"
Bummer
it will still end up with us and the yanks doing the actual fighting while the dutch and danes conduct risk assessments and employee surveys
The one thing that Brexit is sure to achieve is that English will be our world's language.