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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ paradoxical leadership contest

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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Leave promised several different things, you can't say freedom of movement has to be ditched, because that contradicts at least two other promises they made during the campaign.

    Fundamentally no government will take a decision that would wreck the economy, the price for that is higher than the immigration debate.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,684

    John_M said:

    surbiton said:

    VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

    That's not the actual story. I know we've all got axes to grind, but we deserve better. Like a lot of things, it's conditional on the UK's final agreement with the EU.
    Vodaphone thinking about leaving
    VISA thinking about leaving
    Morgan Stanley not leaving
    Bloomberg not leaving
    People 'freezing' big investment

    In other words - companies considering their options when a country makes a big political and economic change.

    Hardly fighting for places on the last boat to get away from broken racist Britain.

    The narrative will come unstuck because no sensible company will actually be prepared to DO any of this stuff on the basis of this flimsy hand-flapping episode.
    You really think that some of these multinational companies won't move jobs out if it suits their business objectives to do so. Blindingly naïve.
    Uh? Where did I say that? They will move them out if it suits them, move them in if it suits them, etc.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

    In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

    Tony Blair is available I hear.
    I was hoping for Falconer.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    No, the campaign was for Control of immigration, where control means unlimited. Dan Hannan told me so.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The longer this goes on the more I think it's a gigantic bluff (which has catastrophically failed), or Eagle is just a feint for someone else.

    Eagle is useless. The Messiah will just smile and fix her with a beady eye, and she'll dissolve into tears again...

    I wonder whether she's playing it more than one way? She may well know that she's not the best person to lead Labour but that Corbyn is so catastrophically bad that someone has to come forward. If she does it then it either prompts a really big beast to follow suit or else she can take over and do the best she can, in the belief that the worst she could do would be better than the likely best that Corbyn would.
    I'm sure they're thinking tonight:-

    "Shit. We've pulled all the levers and pressed all the buttons. He's still there! What have we done? And what the hell do we do now?..."
    Nah. There's still the big red button to press; the one that Eagle's finger is hovering over.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    edited June 2016
    it can't possibly be Eagle? Why go to all this trouble to oust Corbyn only to install someone as uninspiring as her, who will piss off lefties but won't win over many swing voters.

    Clive Lewis has been mentioned on here a few times, he seems like a good choice, left wing, untainted by previous labour government, youthful, good on tv and charismatic, did a brief stint in the army, no prior Hamas baggage, and black - something in there for everyone.

    I see no problem with labour selling left wing economic ideals. I think we've seen the uk is not as small c conservative as we thought, radical change is clearly an option. They just need a good salesman!. Stick to economics and be taken more seriously.

    If nothing else, McDonnell is basically Compotent Corbyn, so is still a step up (but with a lot of baggage)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,624
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    HaroldO said:


    I used to hang around on a rail nerds forum (don't judge me)

    Was it called www.politicalbetting.com ?

    @Sunil_Prasannan ; @JosiasJessop
    Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys, 2016 (continuing from the 2015 campaign!):

    Routes Sunil has done for the very first time:

    January:
    Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly
    Basingstoke to Salisbury
    Ashford to Eastbourne via Hastings
    Manningtree to Harwich Town

    February
    Nottingham Station to Hucknall (NET tram)
    Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme
    Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton-under-Lyne (Metrolink tram)
    Chester to Liverpool James Street
    Liverpool Lime Street to James Street (clockwise)
    Newhaven Harbour to Seaford

    March
    Ford to Bognor Regis
    Polegate to Hampden Park (Eastbourne)
    Petersfield to Portsmouth Harbour
    Hilsea (Portsmouth) to Eastleigh
    Crowhurst to Hastings
    Belper to Matlock
    Matlock to Rowsley South (Peak Rail)

    April
    Selling (Kent) to Dover Priory
    Ely to Kings Lynn
    Liverpool Central to Southport
    Thorpe-le-Soken to Walton-on-the-Naze

    May
    Ely to Norwich
    Dullingham (Cambs.) to Stowmarket
    Stockport to Buxton
    Barnham to Havant
    Bedhampton to Cosham
    Fareham to St Denys (Southampton)
    Ryde Pier Head to Shanklin (Isle of Wight)
    Bull Street to Grand Central/New Street (Midland Metro)

    June
    Ipswich to Lowestoft
    Nottingham to Chesterfield
    Nottingham Station to Toton Lane (NET tram)
    David Lane to Phoenix Park (NET tram)
    Nottingham Station to Clifton South (NET tram)
    Peterborough to Lincoln via Spalding
    Ramsgate to Dover

    TO BE CONTINUED..... :)

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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    We were also told there would be an extra £350m per week to spend on the NHS and that we would remind part of the single market.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    My money would be on Nad if it came to a fight.

    Nadine Dorries @NadineDorriesMP
    I saw Anna Soubry leave the bar before she went outside. She was inebriated, not emotional. https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747902049262571520

    I thought Miss Soubry said on Question Time on Sunday that it's time to "move on" from the debate?
    Soubry is the one Tory, other than Clarke, I have a lot of respect for. Sorry, Nick !
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Jobabob said:

    Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

    In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

    There's no constitutional basis for anything like that. The PLP vote is an expression of internal parliamentary party opinion, with no legal standing. Corbyn remains the leader of the party unless someone is elected in his place. If anyone tries to screw around with that they'll just alienate the majority of members even more than they already have.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    surbiton said:

    VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

    That's not the actual story. I know we've all got axes to grind, but we deserve better. Like a lot of things, it's conditional on the UK's final agreement with the EU.
    Vodaphone thinking about leaving
    VISA thinking about leaving
    Morgan Stanley not leaving
    Bloomberg not leaving
    People 'freezing' big investment

    In other words - companies considering their options when a country makes a big political and economic change.

    Hardly fighting for places on the last boat to get away from broken racist Britain.

    The narrative will come unstuck because no sensible company will actually be prepared to DO any of this stuff on the basis of this flimsy hand-flapping episode.
    I'd rather have a balanced narrative. It's bound to have an impact, as businesses don't like uncertainty. Post exit, there may be legal, regulatory or even commercial reasons why a company might need to relocate some, or all, of their operations to EU states.

    Brexit will have Brexit related unemployment. Markets will be volatile. Based on the IMF report, we're highly likely to have a shallow recession (-.8%) next year. And so on. There has been a measurable increase in unacceptable racist and intimidatory behaviour. People are still upset and worried. There's no point in being in denial over it.

    PB has been very unpleasant for at least the last fortnight. I thought we were doing very well today. I'm just appealing for a bit more civility and a bit less one-eyed posting. Except if I'm doing it, when it's naturally ok ;).
    If the 'increase' in racist attacks is measurable, I'd like to see the measurement. I'd be surprised if you have verified year on year statistics, but go for it, I stand to be corrected.
    Woah, calm down there Tonto. I voted Leave. It's just a fact that people who might have let an incident go by last week, will be highlighting it this week. We are all, rightly, very sensitive about the issue - any plonkers who think the Brexit vote is carte blanche to insult or otherwise attack immigrants need to be squashed pronto.

    As I've said before, British tolerance of immigrants is longstanding and is part of the reason that so many people like to come here. Given a population of 65 million we're bound to have a small proportion of giant cocks. We just need to keep on being decent and reassuring.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    Yes it was. But we can never know for sure why people voted the way they did. That immigration was at the heart of the campaign makes it probable for most it was a key element, but we know that for some it was not a consideration at all. So a deal with free movement is sellable to the country, particularly if Remainers get on board as a least worst option.

    As the only thing definitively known from a Leave vote was Leaving, anything under that bracket means the people don't need to be consulted again, and they can express displeasure at the ballot box at the next election if they don;t like how the government interprets it.

    Could be some very angry people though.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,159
    Freggles said:

    The Telegraph: Vodafone warns it may move its HQ out of the UK. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwgrqppys

    Interesting bit at the bottom of the piece regarding data held by Visa that can't be moved out of the EU - is that a statutory obligation?
    EU Data Protection Act means that only 'accredited safe havens' outside the EU can be trusted with sensitive personal information.
    Britain has been doing well to be trusted with EU data because it has a huge electronic surveillance program and gives America access to data that it would be unconstitutional for them to get for themselves. Outside the EU it's very hard to see it continuing.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    Danny565 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The longer this goes on the more I think it's a gigantic bluff (which has catastrophically failed), or Eagle is just a feint for someone else.

    Eagle is useless. The Messiah will just smile and fix her with a beady eye, and she'll dissolve into tears again...

    I wonder whether she's playing it more than one way? She may well know that she's not the best person to lead Labour but that Corbyn is so catastrophically bad that someone has to come forward. If she does it then it either prompts a really big beast to follow suit or else she can take over and do the best she can, in the belief that the worst she could do would be better than the likely best that Corbyn would.
    Which does not seem at all obvious to me.
    No, I suspect quite a lot of Labour members / supporters might feel that way. But the consequences of electing Corbyn again would be cataclysmic for Labour. Genuinely end-of-the-party bad.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    That's completely right Sean. The idea that the country voted for an exact package is utter rubbish. There are several PB Leavers on here who voted for EEA+FOM, so TSE's post above is indeed palpable nonsense.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,728
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    Sure. I bet millions voted on the grounds of immigration. I also bet millions (like me) voted because of sovereignty and freedom, and don't remotely mind Polish nurses and Romanian plumbers.

    All we have in common is that we voted LEAVE, and that's the only conclusion any democrat can draw. The people said LEAVE. So we LEAVE.

    Why are you making this harder? You lost. Get over it. We're out. Now let's go for what is clearly the best option: Norway EEA. We all agree, we want Britain to thrive and survive, it's the best choice, and it honours democracy. So let's crack on.
    I'm trying to respect the will of the people.

    You might have remembered Dave, George, and various companies warning about the economic shocks of Leaving.

    You and your fellow Leavers chose to ignore them.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060

    surbiton said:

    VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

    Might be moving.

    You do the Remain cause no good with your hyping of job losses.
    This is only maybe at this point. I know someone high up there , we shall see what happens ...
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    That's completely right Sean. The idea that the country voted for an exact package is utter rubbish. There are several PB Leavers on here who voted for EEA+FOM, so TSE's post above is indeed palpable nonsense.
    I don't think Boris can deliver EEA&FOM without some serious flack from all sides.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    We can do this. We can prevaricate, fudge, hedge and mumble until the EU concedes.
    Maybe the political chaos helps us.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    edited June 2016
    I agree with Sean. We're done with the EU and all their mad plans but we'll stay in the EEA and have access to the single market. In return we'll have to accept free movement.

    This won't be enough for Farage and UKIP but the Tories will get enough support to see it through the Commons and probably to win a general election.

    Labour may suffer in the north at the hands of UKIP which is unfortunate but we'll get over it.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    SeanT said:

    Consider this: if REMAIN had won Cameron would now be trying to awkwardly explain the "EU army" was not an "EU army" despite it clearly being an "EU army" in the form of an "EU army".

    The entire narrative would be "REMAIN lied to us"

    It does feel that Britain got out of the political union just in the nick of time.

    We will end up in the single market, with a restricted free movement of people arrangement, but without political union and therefore remain a sovereign nation.

    What is there not to like?

    The sooner we Tories elect the next Prime Minister, the sooner he or she can spell it out, and the sooner everyone can just calm the fck down.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    HaroldO said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    That's completely right Sean. The idea that the country voted for an exact package is utter rubbish. There are several PB Leavers on here who voted for EEA+FOM, so TSE's post above is indeed palpable nonsense.
    I don't think Boris can deliver EEA&FOM without some serious flack from all sides.
    He will have to for the good of the country.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lithuanian president asked what would happen if Article 50 isn't invoked.
    Answer: "Welcome back".
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    GIN1138 said:

    I agree with Sean. We're done with the EU and all their mad plans but we'll stay in the EEA and have access to the single market, in return we'll have to accept free movement.

    This won't be enough for Farage and UKIP but the Tories will get enough support to see it through the Commons and probably a general election.

    Labour may suffer in the north at the hands of UKIP which is unfortunate but we'll get over it.

    Culturally ? I'm not so sure.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313
    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Renegotiation is on.

    If you were the new PM taking over in these circumstances, would you just give up the massive leverage we have to get a new deal and instead press on with Article 50? It would be insane to give up a diplomatic hand like that.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,624
    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Remember "Robot Wars"?

    BREXITEERS, STAND BY...

    3....

    2....

    1....

    NEGOTIATE!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    Sure. I bet millions voted on the grounds of immigration. I also bet millions (like me) voted because of sovereignty and freedom, and don't remotely mind Polish nurses and Romanian plumbers.

    All we have in common is that we voted LEAVE, and that's the only conclusion any democrat can draw. The people said LEAVE. So we LEAVE.

    Why are you making this harder? You lost. Get over it. We're out. Now let's go for what is clearly the best option: Norway EEA. We all agree, we want Britain to thrive and survive, it's the best choice, and it honours democracy. So let's crack on.
    I'm trying to respect the will of the people.

    You might have remembered Dave, George, and various companies warning about the economic shocks of Leaving.

    You and your fellow Leavers chose to ignore them.
    Normally I have the highest respect for you TSE however, that's unworthy of you. Asserting people ignored the likely economic shocks? Really? The last hour has just seen the same dreary crap being trotted out. Stupid, ignorant, racist Leavers. It's got to stop.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    My money would be on Nad if it came to a fight.

    Nadine Dorries @NadineDorriesMP
    I saw Anna Soubry leave the bar before she went outside. She was inebriated, not emotional. https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747902049262571520

    I thought Miss Soubry said on Question Time on Sunday that it's time to "move on" from the debate?
    Soubry is the one Tory, other than Clarke, I have a lot of respect for. Sorry, Nick !
    Mad nad clearly can't stand her so that's a big plus in her favour to start with.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    Jobabob said:

    Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

    In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

    There's no constitutional basis for anything like that. The PLP vote is an expression of internal parliamentary party opinion, with no legal standing. Corbyn remains the leader of the party unless someone is elected in his place. If anyone tries to screw around with that they'll just alienate the majority of members even more than they already have.
    Is that even possible? I presume they're trying to face down Corbyn, but if he doesn't backd own, if he does stand in a contest, and may well win, how can any of them continue as part of the same entity?

    I know parties are broad churches and all that nonsense (quite frankly many of the problems both parties face would be avoided if they did not try to be such broach churches, that allowed people who clearly shouldn't be in the same party with each other to pretend they work toward a common ideological aim), but if the man wins, how do they keep voting for the policies that will be set by him and his followers? Some are fine with the prospectus in theory, but huge numbers have been downright insulting about not just his quality as leader but where he wants to take the party.

    The Tory division seems mild by comparison I assume only because they have the draw of current power they don;t want to lose, and because the parliamentary split is more even.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Of course.

    Imagine a Britain that swans off and does deals with the US, Canada, Japan etc.

    It will highlight the extent of the EU's failure and encourage others to jump ship.

    We only voted to leave last Friday. If we succeed , which we will, the EU is doomed.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016

    Jobabob said:

    Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

    In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

    There's no constitutional basis for anything like that. The PLP vote is an expression of internal parliamentary party opinion, with no legal standing. Corbyn remains the leader of the party unless someone is elected in his place. If anyone tries to screw around with that they'll just alienate the majority of members even more than they already have.
    Isn't Cameron still in Brussels? If so isn't it the case that the LOTO also doesn't lead PMQ's.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    John_M said:



    The main sentiment that I got (and reported the anecdata here) was Indian doctors and filipino nurses saying "I had to jump though hoops and take exams to get work here, why shouldn't they?"

    They are already finding that those folk who do not like Greeks or Portuguese like Asians even less.

    Are there actually any more than a small percentage of sick people who give a stuff about where their physicians, surgeons, nurses come from? Aside from perhaps some language/communication issues (which alas do occur) how many patients have an issue?

    As an aside, I note that at the Renal Unit at the RSCH all the medical staff that I have had dealings with have been white Brits. At the Brighton Eye Hospital aside from a couple of the nurses, none have been. The two establishments are on either side of the road, no more than 20 yards apart. Does the medical profession run some sort of apartheid in its specialities?
    As long as their English comprehension is up to snuff, who gives a shit? I've only met one doctor who I couldn't understand, and who apparently couldn't understand me. That's not a bad record, considering the Welsh NHS is even more dependent on immigrants than the English.
    Mr. M., that was my point in the first paragraph. I don't think many people give a stuff where their medicos come from. Competence is obviously important, but not I think a significant issue, and communication can be, but actual race/ethnicity, nah.

    My second question to Dr. Sox was based on observation and quite genuine with no loading. In this neck of the woods all the renal people seem to be white Brits but none of the eye doctors (and precious few of their support staff are). I am not complaining just observing and wondering why.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    nunu said:
    Link says:

    "Both Mr Johnson and Mrs May have ruled out a snap general election if they win the leadership contest amid concerns that it could jeopardise the Conservative's majority and distract from referendum negotiations"
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jobabob said:

    Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

    In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

    There's no constitutional basis for anything like that. The PLP vote is an expression of internal parliamentary party opinion, with no legal standing. Corbyn remains the leader of the party unless someone is elected in his place. If anyone tries to screw around with that they'll just alienate the majority of members even more than they already have.
    What would you have voted today?

    What do you think Corbyn should do in the light of the result?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Renegotiation is on.

    If you were the new PM taking over in these circumstances, would you just give up the massive leverage we have to get a new deal and instead press on with Article 50? It would be insane to give up a diplomatic hand like that.
    50 letters would put a stop to that.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    I agree with Sean. We're done with the EU and all their mad plans but we'll stay in the EEA and have access to the single market. In return we'll have to accept free movement.

    This won't be enough for Farage and UKIP but the Tories will get enough support to see it through the Commons and probably to win a general election.

    Labour may suffer in the north at the hands of UKIP which is unfortunate but we'll get over it.

    I still think no-one will be brave enough to invoke Article 50 for months if not a year or two. The EU will then throw us a few bones (after they have got over the anger stage) which we'll put to a Referendum and the status quo endures.

    Probably not the most likely outcome but definitely not a complete outsider.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Lithuania wants us to stay too.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,932

    it can't possibly be Eagle? Why go to all this trouble to oust Corbyn only to install someone as uninspiring as her, who will piss off lefties but won't win over many swing voters.

    Clive Lewis has been mentioned on here a few times, he seems like a good choice, left wing, untainted by previous labour government, youthful, good on tv and charismatic, did a brief stint in the army, no prior Hamas baggage, and black - something in there for everyone.

    I see no problem with labour selling left wing economic ideals. I think we've seen the uk is not as small c conservative as we thought, radical change is clearly an option. They just need a good salesman!. Stick to economics and be taken more seriously.

    If nothing else, McDonnell is basically Compotent Corbyn, so is still a step up (but with a lot of baggage)

    Clive Lewis/ McDonnell woud be acceptable to me.

    I suspect not to SO or the majority of the PLP
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    MikeL said:

    nunu said:
    Link says:

    "Both Mr Johnson and Mrs May have ruled out a snap general election if they win the leadership contest amid concerns that it could jeopardise the Conservative's majority and distract from referendum negotiations"
    Expect them to backtrack on this once they are clear of the MPs.
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Of course.

    Imagine a Britain that swans off and does deals with the US, Canada, Japan etc.

    It will highlight the extent of the EU's failure and encourage others to jump ship.

    We only voted to leave last Friday. If we succeed , which we will, the EU is doomed.
    This is the precisely the public Farage rationale which will discourage any concessions from the EU ; I expect that many on your side would prefer that anyway.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    My money would be on Nad if it came to a fight.

    Nadine Dorries @NadineDorriesMP
    I saw Anna Soubry leave the bar before she went outside. She was inebriated, not emotional. https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747902049262571520

    I thought Miss Soubry said on Question Time on Sunday that it's time to "move on" from the debate?
    Soubry is the one Tory, other than Clarke, I have a lot of respect for. Sorry, Nick !
    She is a ghastly woman with a history of intimidation both as an MP and when she worked in law if you believe parts of the Internet. The lady is the ultimate Cameron loyalist, just a female John Prescott style attack dog with no political convictions. It's sad that Nick lost out because he seems umpteen times more intelligent and dignified than Anna. Other than that she's fine though.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    We can do this. We can prevaricate, fudge, hedge and mumble until the EU concedes.
    Maybe the political chaos helps us.
    I honestly don't see how that would be good for the EU, and so us, in a rejoining scenario - they would be showing you can vote to leave, then get a whole bunch of things you want, and decide to stay - it would cause immense problems across the EU as plenty of places might decide to vote to leave, provoking great shocks, simply as a bargaining position.
    AndyJS said:

    Lithuanian president asked what would happen if Article 50 isn't invoked.
    Answer: "Welcome back".

    I don't believe them. Or rather, even if they would, the others as a whole would not.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Danny565 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The longer this goes on the more I think it's a gigantic bluff (which has catastrophically failed), or Eagle is just a feint for someone else.

    Eagle is useless. The Messiah will just smile and fix her with a beady eye, and she'll dissolve into tears again...

    I wonder whether she's playing it more than one way? She may well know that she's not the best person to lead Labour but that Corbyn is so catastrophically bad that someone has to come forward. If she does it then it either prompts a really big beast to follow suit or else she can take over and do the best she can, in the belief that the worst she could do would be better than the likely best that Corbyn would.
    Which does not seem at all obvious to me.
    No, I suspect quite a lot of Labour members / supporters might feel that way. But the consequences of electing Corbyn again would be cataclysmic for Labour. Genuinely end-of-the-party bad.

    There is absolutely no doubt Labour members will re-elect Corbyn, who will then lead the party to catastrophic defeat. He'll then be elected leader once again. And he will lead Labour to utter irrelevance. Not that the members will care. They like their comfort blanket. It's so cosy.

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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,554
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    Sure. I bet millions voted on the grounds of immigration. I also bet millions (like me) voted because of sovereignty and freedom, and don't remotely mind Polish nurses and Romanian plumbers.

    All we have in common is that we voted LEAVE, and that's the only conclusion any democrat can draw. The people said LEAVE. So we LEAVE.

    Why are you making this harder? You lost. Get over it. We're out. Now let's go for what is clearly the best option: Norway EEA. We all agree, we want Britain to thrive and survive, it's the best choice, and it honours democracy. So let's crack on.
    Exactly, Sean. What we need is a Leave of a sort that 60+% of the population could.support. A compromise. A halfway house. This could be it. I suspect TSE, I'm sure, could support it (didn't he once claim not to be obsessed with Europe) once he concludes the sport of trying to win this particular argument.
    Never try to infer what a voter really meant by his vote. (Beyond the obvious of he considered option x the least worst option). It can't be done and just looks at best arrogant and at worst stupid.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    DanSmith said:

    HaroldO said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    That's completely right Sean. The idea that the country voted for an exact package is utter rubbish. There are several PB Leavers on here who voted for EEA+FOM, so TSE's post above is indeed palpable nonsense.
    I don't think Boris can deliver EEA&FOM without some serious flack from all sides.
    He will have to for the good of the country.
    And they will flay him for it...would be funny to see though. From a morbid point of view.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    RodCrosby said:
    They are joining the wrong organisation.
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Just as adding the suffix "-gate" to the end of every political scandal has become common, it seems that making up an "exit" word for every resignation/departure is gaining popularity.

    "'Mexit' leaves Messi fans pleading for change of heart"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36643270
    (Messi's retirement from international football)
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

    In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

    Tony Blair is available I hear.
    I think he was meaning on the Labour side.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest most of my theoretical profit in the Labour leadership market comes from this one weird trick:

    Lay: David Miliband 9.71 £98.72 £860.25

    Insanely short odds for someone who is not even an MP!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    murali_s said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I agree with Sean. We're done with the EU and all their mad plans but we'll stay in the EEA and have access to the single market. In return we'll have to accept free movement.

    This won't be enough for Farage and UKIP but the Tories will get enough support to see it through the Commons and probably to win a general election.

    Labour may suffer in the north at the hands of UKIP which is unfortunate but we'll get over it.

    I still think no-one will be brave enough to invoke Article 50 for months if not a year or two. The EU will then throw us a few bones (after they have got over the anger stage) which we'll put to a Referendum and the status quo endures.

    Probably not the most likely outcome but definitely not a complete outsider.
    It's very, very, very unlikely that any politician will risk another EU referendum this side of 2100...
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    We can do this. We can prevaricate, fudge, hedge and mumble until the EU concedes.
    Maybe the political chaos helps us.
    I honestly don't see how that would be good for the EU, and so us, in a rejoining scenario - they would be showing you can vote to leave, then get a whole bunch of things you want, and decide to stay - it would cause immense problems across the EU as plenty of places might decide to vote to leave, provoking great shocks, simply as a bargaining position.
    AndyJS said:

    Lithuanian president asked what would happen if Article 50 isn't invoked.
    Answer: "Welcome back".

    I don't believe them. Or rather, even if they would, the others as a whole would not.
    Lithuania with a population of 3 million? Less important than Scotland? Well, why didn't they say so before, let's hop into our time machine and get back to June 23rd.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Lithuania wants us to stay too.
    Everyone wants us to stay. Except possibly the French, the Belgians, and Junker.
    And 48% of us want to stay. And the re
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    We can do this. We can prevaricate, fudge, hedge and mumble until the EU concedes.
    Maybe the political chaos helps us.
    I honestly don't see how that would be good for the EU, and so us, in a rejoining scenario - they would be showing you can vote to leave, then get a whole bunch of things you want, and decide to stay - it would cause immense problems across the EU as plenty of places might decide to vote to leave, provoking great shocks, simply as a bargaining position.
    AndyJS said:

    Lithuanian president asked what would happen if Article 50 isn't invoked.
    Answer: "Welcome back".

    I don't believe them. Or rather, even if they would, the others as a whole would not.
    Very simply, the costs of conceding to us outweigh the costs of our going.

    And for us, the costs of our going, outweigh the negatives of our staying.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Heseltine on Newsnight. Calls for second referendum or general election.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Of course.

    Imagine a Britain that swans off and does deals with the US, Canada, Japan etc.

    It will highlight the extent of the EU's failure and encourage others to jump ship.

    We only voted to leave last Friday. If we succeed , which we will, the EU is doomed.
    This is the precisely the public Farage rationale which will discourage any concessions from the EU ; I expect that many on your side would prefer that anyway.
    There are various links over the last couple of days linking Australia, new Zealand, Canada,South Korea, EFTA, India, Brazil that suggest it will happen.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AndyJS said:

    Heseltine on Newsnight. Calls for second referendum or general election.

    Jesus Christ. Goodnight all.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Renegotiation is on.

    If you were the new PM taking over in these circumstances, would you just give up the massive leverage we have to get a new deal and instead press on with Article 50? It would be insane to give up a diplomatic hand like that.
    50 letters would put a stop to that.
    This.

    Let's say for the moment for the sake of argument it's already clear Leaving is a hopeless option and cannot be made to work well - I'd say it was far too early to make that call, but let's accept the premise - and there's this opportunity to renegotiate. The problem is it is too soon for both sides. The mood is too raw for the hardcore of Leavers for whom its all they care about, and the millions who have been delighted by the outcome, and a moderately hostile EU getting all defensive. This government could not survive backing down on that, or being seen to back down on that, and given it is too soon for any problems to be felt nationwide, it would be too provocative for the public who as of yet would not be ready to be re-convinced, that enough has changed to renegotiate. This government would fall, and would a 'negotiate' government be elected in its place?
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.

    That would be an absolute disaster for Labour.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,100

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    Sure. I bet millions voted on the grounds of immigration. I also bet millions (like me) voted because of sovereignty and freedom, and don't remotely mind Polish nurses and Romanian plumbers.

    All we have in common is that we voted LEAVE, and that's the only conclusion any democrat can draw. The people said LEAVE. So we LEAVE.

    Why are you making this harder? You lost. Get over it. We're out. Now let's go for what is clearly the best option: Norway EEA. We all agree, we want Britain to thrive and survive, it's the best choice, and it honours democracy. So let's crack on.
    I'm trying to respect the will of the people.

    You might have remembered Dave, George, and various companies warning about the economic shocks of Leaving.

    You and your fellow Leavers chose to ignore them.
    True but they did it in such a way it sounded like crying wolf for the 20th time.... That and the fact there was not 1 positive reason given for staying in...
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.

    Nice to see Labour getting its priorities straight. /facepalm
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Somewhere between 3% and 5% of the Lithuanian population have moved to the UK. No wonder he's keen.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.

    This is getting beyond a farce.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest most of my theoretical profit in the Labour leadership market comes from this one weird trick:

    Lay: David Miliband 9.71 £98.72 £860.25

    Loving the banana-themed reference.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Could someone clarify just where Falconer stands on the Labour business. Has he any intention of resigning?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,932
    Seema Malhotra says string of resignations after Benn's sacking wasn't co-ordinated. Surely doesn't expect anyone to believe it?

    FFS does anyone think that is not an outright lie.

    Think PLP are just trying to piss members off now
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    kle4 said:

    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Renegotiation is on.

    If you were the new PM taking over in these circumstances, would you just give up the massive leverage we have to get a new deal and instead press on with Article 50? It would be insane to give up a diplomatic hand like that.
    50 letters would put a stop to that.
    This.

    Let's say for the moment for the sake of argument it's already clear Leaving is a hopeless option and cannot be made to work well - I'd say it was far too early to make that call, but let's accept the premise - and there's this opportunity to renegotiate. The problem is it is too soon for both sides. The mood is too raw for the hardcore of Leavers for whom its all they care about, and the millions who have been delighted by the outcome, and a moderately hostile EU getting all defensive. This government could not survive backing down on that, or being seen to back down on that, and given it is too soon for any problems to be felt nationwide, it would be too provocative for the public who as of yet would not be ready to be re-convinced, that enough has changed to renegotiate. This government would fall, and would a 'negotiate' government be elected in its place?
    That's why we need to kick the can down the road. Announce a process to figure out what the answer is and we'll decide later. Meanwhile commit to the single market to reassure the FTSE. We're all to crazed to work out the answer right now.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,100

    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.

    That would be an absolute disaster for Labour.
    What's the next level beyond calling in the Death Star to deal with an annoying fly....
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    John_M said:

    AndyJS said:

    Heseltine on Newsnight. Calls for second referendum or general election.

    Jesus Christ. Goodnight all.

    A scary disregard for democracy from the arch europhile. There's not much I thank John Major for but winning in 1990 is one thing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127



    Very simply, the costs of conceding to us outweigh the costs of our going.

    Even factoring in the costs of giving succor to other nations who seek their own pound of flesh from the EU?

    Don't get me wrong, if we'd had a better deal from the start I'd have held my nose and voted Remain, 'freedom' is not worth any price (but remaining did carry its own costs) so if a new one is on the table I'm not averse to considering it afresh, but I would be very very surprised to see them offer us one, or our government able to pursue it.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,159

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    Those EU Army proposals, which we were told were rubbish

    http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/2016/160628_02_en.htm

    It occurs to me that, once the UK leaves, the EU can drop English as a standard language.
    Well, they might very well do so Anne. What would they replace it with? English is the global lingua franca. If that's not the very definition of irony, what is?
    I doubt that very much - it's the second language in 23 out of 27 states afaiaa and of course the first language in 1 other.
    2 others if you include Scotland, and it takes unanimity to change it.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.

    That would be an absolute disaster for Labour.
    What's the next level beyond calling in the Death Star to deal with an annoying fly....
    Calling in a fly to deal with the Death Star.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    edited June 2016
    Disraeli said:

    Just as adding the suffix "-gate" to the end of every political scandal has become common, it seems that making up an "exit" word for every resignation/departure is gaining popularity.

    "'Mexit' leaves Messi fans pleading for change of heart"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36643270
    (Messi's retirement from international football)

    Truly the most invidious outcome of the result so far (though did Grexit come first? Well, Brexit probably popularised it)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016

    John_M said:



    The main sentiment that I got (and reported the anecdata here) was Indian doctors and filipino nurses saying "I had to jump though hoops and take exams to get work here, why shouldn't they?"

    They are already finding that those folk who do not like Greeks or Portuguese like Asians even less.

    Are there actually any more than a small percentage of sick people who give a stuff about where their physicians, surgeons, nurses come from? Aside from perhaps some language/communication issues (which alas do occur) how many patients have an issue?

    As an aside, I note that at the Renal Unit at the RSCH all the medical staff that I have had dealings with have been white Brits. At the Brighton Eye Hospital aside from a couple of the nurses, none have been. The two establishments are on either side of the road, no more than 20 yards apart. Does the medical profession run some sort of apartheid in its specialities?
    As long as their English comprehension is up to snuff, who gives a shit? I've only met one doctor who I couldn't understand, and who apparently couldn't understand me. That's not a bad record, considering the Welsh NHS is even more dependent on immigrants than the English.
    Mr. M., that was my point in the first paragraph. I don't think many people give a stuff where their medicos come from. Competence is obviously important, but not I think a significant issue, and communication can be, but actual race/ethnicity, nah.

    My second question to Dr. Sox was based on observation and quite genuine with no loading. In this neck of the woods all the renal people seem to be white Brits but none of the eye doctors (and precious few of their support staff are). I am not complaining just observing and wondering why.
    Certain specialities are attractive to different people. Most of the difference is generational, Renal medicine is not expanding, so the specialists are rather older. Ophthalmology has expanded rapidly over the last decade, so has younger and therefore ethnic minority staff.

    Most people are not bothered where their doctor or nurse comes from as they have more pressing concerns. Those people do have families, and go to the streets and shops, and it is in that non professional context that bigotry appears.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.

    That would be an absolute disaster for Labour.
    What's the next level beyond calling in the Death Star to deal with an annoying fly....
    t'Labour party is going out in spectacular fashion...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgLgpcKK7hc
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,624

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    Those EU Army proposals, which we were told were rubbish

    http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/2016/160628_02_en.htm

    It occurs to me that, once the UK leaves, the EU can drop English as a standard language.
    Well, they might very well do so Anne. What would they replace it with? English is the global lingua franca. If that's not the very definition of irony, what is?
    I doubt that very much - it's the second language in 23 out of 27 states afaiaa and of course the first language in 1 other.
    2 others if you include Scotland, and it takes unanimity to change it.
    English is the best language in the world!

    Consider: at this year's Eurovision Final, all but one song were sung wholly or partially in English!
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    https://youtu.be/t9_EhmfxHys

    Goldie Lookin Chain LOL
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    kle4 said:



    Very simply, the costs of conceding to us outweigh the costs of our going.

    Even factoring in the costs of giving succor to other nations who seek their own pound of flesh from the EU?

    Don't get me wrong, if we'd had a better deal from the start I'd have held my nose and voted Remain, 'freedom' is not worth any price (but remaining did carry its own costs) so if a new one is on the table I'm not averse to considering it afresh, but I would be very very surprised to see them offer us one, or our government able to pursue it.
    Oh of course we would be simply laying another landmine for the future. But that's the point. Eventually it's going to blow, but let's not be the ones to set it off.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sun backing Boris

    Will they lose this time?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Oh God. David Davis is on daily politics tomorrow for pmqs... he's going to stand isn't he...
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

    In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

    There's no constitutional basis for anything like that. The PLP vote is an expression of internal parliamentary party opinion, with no legal standing. Corbyn remains the leader of the party unless someone is elected in his place. If anyone tries to screw around with that they'll just alienate the majority of members even more than they already have.
    What would you have voted today?

    What do you think Corbyn should do in the light of the result?

    Nick would prefer a new Tory government to a new Labour leader. It's as simple as that. But he is in the majority among Labour members and that's all that matters. Labour now has no future as a potential party of government. The members have abandoned the voters. They deserve all that's coming. Sadly, the voters don't. But they're getting it anyway.

  • Options
    Old_HandOld_Hand Posts: 49
    South-West Norfolk MP Elizabeth Truss, tipped as a possible Conservative leadership contender, has come out in support of Boris Johnson.
    http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/environment_secretary_elizabeth_truss_backs_boris_johnson_to_be_the_next_prime_minister_1_4595994
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,932

    John_M said:



    The main sentiment that I got (and reported the anecdata here) was Indian doctors and filipino nurses saying "I had to jump though hoops and take exams to get work here, why shouldn't they?"

    They are already finding that those folk who do not like Greeks or Portuguese like Asians even less.

    Are there actually any more than a small percentage of sick people who give a stuff about where their physicians, surgeons, nurses come from? Aside from perhaps some language/communication issues (which alas do occur) how many patients have an issue?

    As an aside, I note that at the Renal Unit at the RSCH all the medical staff that I have had dealings with have been white Brits. At the Brighton Eye Hospital aside from a couple of the nurses, none have been. The two establishments are on either side of the road, no more than 20 yards apart. Does the medical profession run some sort of apartheid in its specialities?
    As long as their English comprehension is up to snuff, who gives a shit? I've only met one doctor who I couldn't understand, and who apparently couldn't understand me. That's not a bad record, considering the Welsh NHS is even more dependent on immigrants than the English.
    Mr. M., that was my point in the first paragraph. I don't think many people give a stuff where their medicos come from. Competence is obviously important, but not I think a significant issue, and communication can be, but actual race/ethnicity, nah.

    My second question to Dr. Sox was based on observation and quite genuine with no loading. In this neck of the woods all the renal people seem to be white Brits but none of the eye doctors (and precious few of their support staff are). I am not complaining just observing and wondering why.
    Certain specialities are attractive to different people. Most of the difference is generational, Renal medicine is not expanding, so the specialists are rather older. Ophthalmology has expanded rapidly over the last decade, so has younger and therefore ethnic minority staff.
    In my experience overseas Drs are more willing to work in emergency medicine than British ones
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,624
    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Labour membership for George Galloway is being discussed, source tells me.

    That would be an absolute disaster for Labour.
    What's the next level beyond calling in the Death Star to deal with an annoying fly....
    Calling in a fly to deal with the Death Star.
    "Ejaculate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances!"
    - Peter Cushing in "Star Wars", 1977
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Emily Maitlis fluent in french in interview with Mme le Pen. Good to see a British interviewer engaging in a foreign language!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just as adding the suffix "-gate" to the end of every political scandal has become common, it seems that making up an "exit" word for every resignation/departure is gaining popularity.

    "'Mexit' leaves Messi fans pleading for change of heart"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36643270
    (Messi's retirement from international football)

    Truly the most invidious outcome of the result so far (though did Grexit come first? Well, Brexit probably popularised it)
    We should copyright Brexitgate. I mean, there's bound to be one sooner or later, right? It rolls off the tongue lovely as well.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    We can do this. We can prevaricate, fudge, hedge and mumble until the EU concedes.
    Maybe the political chaos helps us.
    I honestly don't see how that would be good for the EU, and so us, in a rejoining scenario - they would be showing you can vote to leave, then get a whole bunch of things you want, and decide to stay - it would cause immense problems across the EU as plenty of places might decide to vote to leave, provoking great shocks, simply as a bargaining position.not.
    I did wonder during the campaign if this was one reason why Cameron went so far out on a limb for Remain: so that if we lost, no-one could question his commitment to winning the vote.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    SeanT said:

    The narrative has turned. Suddenly it's Brexit might benefit the Brits, let's keep them in....

    Fascinating

    Hard to know where the narrative will end up, it's been less than a week, but there's been some encouraging noises at least.

    Though unfortunately for those hoping for a reprieve from brexit, the more likely it looks we could be offered a new, better deal than before, the more it is likely that's because the EU feels us leaving would not be worth the damage to them, that is it would hurt them more than us (or so it would be perceived) and so the more ok we'll perceive the brexit situation to be, and the nervous waverers will be even less likely to waver.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    Sure. I bet millions voted on the grounds of immigration. I also bet millions (like me) voted because of sovereignty and freedom, and don't remotely mind Polish nurses and Romanian plumbers.

    All we have in common is that we voted LEAVE, and that's the only conclusion any democrat can draw. The people said LEAVE. So we LEAVE.

    Why are you making this harder? You lost. Get over it. We're out. Now let's go for what is clearly the best option: Norway EEA. We all agree, we want Britain to thrive and survive, it's the best choice, and it honours democracy. So let's crack on.
    Agree with this as the way forward. Most Remainers would support it, giving such a move a formidable bloc vote.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    Oh God. David Davis is on daily politics tomorrow for pmqs... he's going to stand isn't he...

    And fail, again.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    The narrative has turned. Suddenly it's Brexit might benefit the Brits, let's keep them in....

    Fascinating

    The complete opposite of what we were told during the campaign.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    kle4 said:

    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Renegotiation is on.

    If you were the new PM taking over in these circumstances, would you just give up the massive leverage we have to get a new deal and instead press on with Article 50? It would be insane to give up a diplomatic hand like that.
    50 letters would put a stop to that.
    This.

    Let's say for the moment for the sake of argument it's already clear Leaving is a hopeless option and cannot be made to work well - I'd say it was far too early to make that call, but let's accept the premise - and there's this opportunity to renegotiate. The problem is it is too soon for both sides. The mood is too raw for the hardcore of Leavers for whom its all they care about, and the millions who have been delighted by the outcome, and a moderately hostile EU getting all defensive. This government could not survive backing down on that, or being seen to back down on that, and given it is too soon for any problems to be felt nationwide, it would be too provocative for the public who as of yet would not be ready to be re-convinced, that enough has changed to renegotiate. This government would fall, and would a 'negotiate' government be elected in its place?
    That's why we need to kick the can down the road. Announce a process to figure out what the answer is and we'll decide later. Meanwhile commit to the single market to reassure the FTSE. We're all to crazed to work out the answer right now.
    If we can hold of a declaration for several months, a great many options are more possible. But it won't be easy to hold out that long, as there are downsides too.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    Emily Maitlis fluent in french in interview with Mme le Pen. Good to see a British interviewer engaging in a foreign language!

    Former Newsnight presenter Francine Stock was/is also a fluent French speaker.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    'However, Mr Corbyn was nonplussed by the enormity of the threat to his leadership, with one witness saying “the reaction was absolutely nil”.

    The source added: “He [Mr Corbyn] really has got the hide of a rhino. You’ve got to admire him in a way.”'

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-resignations-reshuffle-mutiny-7108216.html
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    The narrative has turned. Suddenly it's Brexit might benefit the Brits, let's keep them in....

    Fascinating

    Hard to know where the narrative will end up, it's been less than a week, but there's been some encouraging noises at least.

    Though unfortunately for those hoping for a reprieve from brexit, the more likely it looks we could be offered a new, better deal than before, the more it is likely that's because the EU feels us leaving would not be worth the damage to them, that is it would hurt them more than us (or so it would be perceived) and so the more ok we'll perceive the brexit situation to be, and the nervous waverers will be even less likely to waver.
    Thats because a UK exit is going to be damaging to them.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    Newsnight very clear that the British mustn't Brexit and we can renegotiate - according to Germany

    Renegotiation is on.

    If you were the new PM taking over in these circumstances, would you just give up the massive leverage we have to get a new deal and instead press on with Article 50? It would be insane to give up a diplomatic hand like that.
    50 letters would put a stop to that.
    This.

    Let's say for the moment for the sake of argument it's already clear Leaving is a hopeless option and cannot be made to work well - I'd say it was far too early to make that call, but let's accept the premise - and there's this opportunity to renegotiate. The problem is it is too soon for both sides. The mood is too raw for the hardcore of Leavers for whom its all they care about, and the millions who have been delighted by the outcome, and a moderately hostile EU getting all defensive. This government could not survive backing down on that, or being seen to back down on that, and given it is too soon for any problems to be felt nationwide, it would be too provocative for the public who as of yet would not be ready to be re-convinced, that enough has changed to renegotiate. This government would fall, and would a 'negotiate' government be elected in its place?
    That's why we need to kick the can down the road. Announce a process to figure out what the answer is and we'll decide later. Meanwhile commit to the single market to reassure the FTSE. We're all to crazed to work out the answer right now.
    If we can hold of a declaration for several months, a great many options are more possible. But it won't be easy to hold out that long, as there are downsides too.
    I really think we are too divided as a nation to agree on a solution. Town against country; england against scotland; young against old; and of course corbyn against the entire plp. If we make a call early, we risk alienating and enraging a massive swathe of the population.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

    SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

    I hope Boris is reading
    With free movement?
    Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

    Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

    A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

    The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.
    Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

    We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning
    This is just a lie. They voted LEAVE. That's all we know, all we can know, unless you want to make windows into men's souls.

    I'm fairly certain restricting immigration and free movement was mentioned occasionally.
    Sure. I bet millions voted on the grounds of immigration. I also bet millions (like me) voted because of sovereignty and freedom, and don't remotely mind Polish nurses and Romanian plumbers.

    All we have in common is that we voted LEAVE, and that's the only conclusion any democrat can draw. The people said LEAVE. So we LEAVE.

    Why are you making this harder? You lost. Get over it. We're out. Now let's go for what is clearly the best option: Norway EEA. We all agree, we want Britain to thrive and survive, it's the best choice, and it honours democracy. So let's crack on.
    I'm trying to respect the will of the people.

    You might have remembered Dave, George, and various companies warning about the economic shocks of Leaving.

    You and your fellow Leavers chose to ignore them.
    That's true but we are where we are. If Parliament somehow ends up voting down a Brexit bill then I for one as a longstanding and vocal opponents of referendums will celebrate, but I think it's an outside chance at best. So we grudgingly create what we had already in a Norway style deal, calm the markets, and get on with it.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    edited June 2016

    Seema Malhotra says string of resignations after Benn's sacking wasn't co-ordinated. Surely doesn't expect anyone to believe it?

    FFS does anyone think that is not an outright lie.

    Think PLP are just trying to piss members off now

    It's one of those political lies like 'I will not resign' 'I have made no plans for [if I lose]' etc. Everyone knows they're not true.

    Though at the moment COrbyn is proving how atypical he is as, for now, he really wasn't lying about not standing down just because most of his MPs have no faith in him.

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    SeanT said:

    Those EU Army proposals, which we were told were rubbish

    http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/2016/160628_02_en.htm

    It occurs to me that, once the UK leaves, the EU can drop English as a standard language.
    Well, they might very well do so Anne. What would they replace it with? English is the global lingua franca. If that's not the very definition of irony, what is?
    I doubt that very much - it's the second language in 23 out of 27 states afaiaa and of course the first language in 1 other.
    2 others if you include Scotland, and it takes unanimity to change it.
    English is the best language in the world!

    Consider: at this year's Eurovision Final, all but one song were sung wholly or partially in English!
    And to think, when you first came to this country you couldn't even speak this beautiful language, IIRC
This discussion has been closed.