Obviously overvalued previously or someone is stupid.
The temptation to buy shares in housebuilders is almost irresistible. Are we no longer wanting new houses? Surely they weren't all being sold to immigrants. Massive overreaction.
Perhaps you should have calmed the markets this morning.
I heard a number of students say that they believed if they didn't vote Remain their student fees would go up. There are a lot of idiots out there.
Their fees won't go up, but if Britain leaves the EU then the fees paid by EU undergraduates at British universities are likely to go up by a lot. At the moment they pay the same fees as home students.
I am well aware of that. As a result, UK student fees in theory could go down (at least at top unis) as there isn't a shortage of people willing to pay the international going rate for top quality education.
So admit thick rich foreigners rather than bright not-so-rich ones?
Many British students have friends from elsewhere in the EU, they don't want fees for EU students to go up, and they voted Remain partly for that reason.
Personally I think British universities admit too many foreign students, both from elsewhere in the EU and from China and elsewhere. At some Cambridge colleges about 20% of undergraduates are Chinese. Education should be improved here so that there are more bright British candidates.
Crickey...I didn't say half the stuff you are implying. I simply quoted students who were on sky who gave the reason I reported.
I actually totally understand why academics were for staying, they definitely see the most positive aspects of the eu. Not just in funding but how they can conduct their research.
Things are moving so fast, last here about 6 hours ago and nearly 2000 posts since then. It is literally impossible to keep up to date with whats happening in politics right now.
Still, Italy were 3-1 before the game, so that bits looking good. Really ridiculous odds.
Italy look to have run for a 90 minute game. If Spain get an equaliser, Italy are going to look dead on their feet before 30 minutes of extra time are out.
Well most of the Spanish team have the benefit of Operacion Puerto.
Ironically Italy really tore them apart in the first half, playing Spanish Tika-Taka without relying on midgets. But yeah, humans can't keep that up for 90 minutes.
I heard a number of students say that they believed if they didn't vote Remain their student fees would go up. There are a lot of idiots out there.
Their fees probably won't go up, but if Britain leaves the EU then the fees paid by new EU undergraduates at British universities are likely to go up by a lot. At the moment they pay the same fees as home students.
Except their fees might go up. Right wingers like Boris and his forthcoming cabinet of the likes of John Redwood will set unis free to set their own levels. You can say that was nothing to do with the vote, but A has led to B.
In reality, fees will be going up regardless (unless we get Jezza as PM). They don't cover the cost of provision in certain subjects, especially at top unis e.g. Chemistry costs a unis well in excess of £10k a year to put on.
Government will subsidise Physics, Chemistry, Engineering and Medicine order to get the graduates the coubtry needs without having to import them.
Things are moving so fast, last here about 6 hours ago and nearly 2000 posts since then. It is literally impossible to keep up to date with whats happening in politics right now.
Still, Italy were 3-1 before the game, so that bits looking good. Really ridiculous odds.
Italy look to have run for a 90 minute game. If Spain get an equaliser, Italy are going to look dead on their feet before 30 minutes of extra time are out.
If.
They are simply the best at running down a clock.
Quite. Never underestimate the ability of Italy to win 1-0.
Well said Mike. There's a huge difference between calling a two horse race like a referendum campaign, and calling a 40 - horse handicapped steeplechase, which as we all know is little more than a lottery. Last Thursday PB again got it right, while the bookies and media got it wrong, exactly as with the election a little over a year ago.
Obviously overvalued previously or someone is stupid.
The temptation to buy shares in housebuilders is almost irresistible. Are we no longer wanting new houses? Surely they weren't all being sold to immigrants. Massive overreaction.
My dad reckons they will stop building houses because no one will be able to get a mortgage and house prices will fall. But it is tempting to think that the immigration tap might be turned off too. Personally I think that would be an error of judgement by the City - not like they've got anything wrong recently, of course!
I heard today on the radio that appearently Alan Johnson was leader of the Labour In campaign. I know I didnt't watch every debate or news bulletin but this is the first I knew of it.
The only person even less visible was Stuart Rose.
LOL! Stuart Rose was the first big laugh of the campaign. A businessman, talking to a group of businessmen while failing to understand that his profile was now that of a politician.
The minute he said that exiting the EU would drive up the cost of labour, the real politicians sidelined him for the entire campaign!!
The Guardian is saying one new Shadow Cabinet member is serving on condition they don't have to publiclly back Corbyn in a leadership contest. Corbyn has agreed to this. Extraordinary.
OK forget about odds on referenda, surely 3-1 on Italy to beat Spain is ridiculously generous. Thank you Stan James. Especially as Italy have actually looked good in the tournament and Spain really haven't.
I heard a number of students say that they believed if they didn't vote Remain their student fees would go up. There are a lot of idiots out there.
Their fees won't go up, but if Britain leaves the EU then the fees paid by EU undergraduates at British universities are likely to go up by a lot. At the moment they pay the same fees as home students.
I am well aware of that. As a result, UK student fees in theory could go down (at least at top unis) as there isn't a shortage of people willing to pay the international going rate for top quality education.
So admit thick rich foreigners rather than bright not-so-rich ones?
Many British students have friends from elsewhere in the EU, they don't want fees for EU students to go up, and they voted Remain partly for that reason.
Personally I think British universities admit too many foreign students, both from elsewhere in the EU and from China and elsewhere. At some Cambridge colleges about 20% of undergraduates are Chinese. Education should be improved here so that there are more bright British candidates.
Yes, but the international students pay something like £30k a year, they're competing with the top US universities to attract Chinese and Arabs for whom the fees are irrelevant. One might go as far as to say that the fees from the international students subsidise British students at those exceptional universities.
Really housebuilding...it isn't as if we have a glut of free houses for the existing population. We haven't built enough for 10+ years, before you even think about 500k extra people a year.
And despite what a few racists think, we aren't going to be sending anybody home.
Seems a massive over reaction from the markets in relation to home builders.
Obviously overvalued previously or someone is stupid.
The temptation to buy shares in housebuilders is almost irresistible. Are we no longer wanting new houses? Surely they weren't all being sold to immigrants. Massive overreaction.
My dad reckons they will stop building houses because no one will be able to get a mortgage and house prices will fall. But it is tempting to think that the immigration tap might be turned off too. Personally I think that would be an error of judgement by the City - not like they've got anything wrong recently, of course!
The sharp fall in banking shares not just in the UK but pretty much everywhere is worrying but I don't see any sign yet of the sort of liquidity issues that we had in 2008. There is very little sign of the mortgage market tightening up so far.
It is possible that London in particular will be hit by a reduction in foreign capital looking for a safe home but over the whole country 30% off house builders with decent land banks just looks daft.
OK forget about odds on referenda, surely 3-1 on Italy to beat Spain is ridiculously generous. Thank you Stan James. Especially as Italy have actually looked good in the tournament and Spain really haven't.
But all the Italian media were telling us this was the worst Italian side ever, not just recently, but ever.
Italy and Germany, the 2 countries who have tournament football mastered. Betting against them is for mugs.
Obviously overvalued previously or someone is stupid.
The temptation to buy shares in housebuilders is almost irresistible. Are we no longer wanting new houses? Surely they weren't all being sold to immigrants. Massive overreaction.
My dad reckons they will stop building houses because no one will be able to get a mortgage and house prices will fall. But it is tempting to think that the immigration tap might be turned off too. Personally I think that would be an error of judgement by the City - not like they've got anything wrong recently, of course!
The sharp fall in banking shares not just in the UK but pretty much everywhere is worrying but I don't see any sign yet of the sort of liquidity issues that we had in 2008. There is very little sign of the mortgage market tightening up so far.
It is possible that London in particular will be hit by a reduction in foreign capital looking for a safe home but over the whole country 30% off house builders with decent land banks just looks daft.
'Decent land banks'. The question is how much they paid for the land and how much the land is now worth if you price in a major adjustment.
Some of the major builders should have been liquidated after the last financial crash and replaced with a with more smaller players in the market. Instead we had a plethora of schemes, compounded under Osborne, to prop them up.
Well said Mike. There's a huge difference between calling a two horse race like a referendum campaign, and calling a 40 - horse handicapped steeplechase, which as we all know is little more than a lottery. Last Thursday PB again got it right, while the bookies and media got it wrong, exactly as with the election a little over a year ago.
As OGH says, though, it's less a question of "right" or "wrong" than the volume of money. LEAVE was backed to small amounts by lots of punters, REMAIN by fewer punters but with much bigger sums.
This dictates the market - a few fivers and tenners at 3/1 is one thing but if someone comes in and dumps £30,000 on a betting shop counter at 8/15, you;re going to notice as you'll be paying out £46,000 (stake plus profit) if that comes in. Perhaps you adjust your book and go 1/2 or 4/9 or 2/5 or whatever.
It's the same on the racecourse - it's not what the fiddler on the rails does with his score it's the exchange player and the off course firms with their tens of thousands of pounds to shorten up a horse. The computer has taken over from tic-tac but the message is the same - if Ladbrokes want a horse to be 5/4 rather than 11/8 they'll make it happen.
REMAIN was short because the weight of money (as distinct from the number of punters) made it so. At 1/7 and 11/4 on voting day, the firms were taking no chances but still faced substantial liabilities if REMAIN won and 1/7 was their way of reducing those. That there were people still prepared to bet that on the assumption it was easy money tells you all you need to know.
When I worked in the shops in the 1980s, one of the strongest betting markets was Saturday morning dogs at Hackney - the bookies there would stand serious money and even an off-course punter going in with a grand wouldn't cause the ructions it would now.
I heard a number of students say that they believed if they didn't vote Remain their student fees would go up. There are a lot of idiots out there.
Their fees probably won't go up, but if Britain leaves the EU then the fees paid by new EU undergraduates at British universities are likely to go up by a lot. At the moment they pay the same fees as home students.
Except their fees might go up. Right wingers like Boris and his forthcoming cabinet of the likes of John Redwood will set unis free to set their own levels. You can say that was nothing to do with the vote, but A has led to B.
In reality, fees will be going up regardless (unless we get Jezza as PM). They don't cover the cost of provision in certain subjects, especially at top unis e.g. Chemistry costs a unis well in excess of £10k a year to put on.
Government will subsidise Physics, Chemistry, Engineering and Medicine order to get the graduates the coubtry needs without having to import them.
Yes, one massive advantage of 'Brexit' is the ability of the govt to subsidise education - so we could have tuition-free engineering and science degrees for the British, without having to extend that subsidy to any EU student.
UK downgraded by TWO notches. That could cost us billions.
It shouldn't of itself - traders know govt bonds well enough that the ratings tend to follow the markets rather than lead them. However, the underlying reality that the rating reflects remains the same.
Housebuilders are a highly leveraged bet on the health of the UK economy. That's why they tanked so badly at the time of the financial crisis, why they have been such a good investment in the Osborne recovery, and why they are falling so rapidly now. Now is probably too early to go back in, I think. The time of maximum fear isn't yet.
OK forget about odds on referenda, surely 3-1 on Italy to beat Spain is ridiculously generous. Thank you Stan James. Especially as Italy have actually looked good in the tournament and Spain really haven't.
But all the Italian media were telling us this was the worst Italian side ever, not just recently, but ever.
Italy and Germany, the 2 countries who have tournament football mastered. Betting against them is for mugs.
I don't think Italians really like proper centre forwards. I always felt Rossi was a false 9, more of a hole forward. Big, aerial strikers seem to get a lot of stick off their press.
The fact that I can buy better quality wines from Oz and NZ than I can from the EU for the same price, rather gives the lie to this we must be a member of the single market schtick.
Your argument would be better served by a less subjective example.
Well if you want to think a little wider, let us ask some questions. In which country was your computer manufactured? In which counties were its components made? How about your mobile phone? Your TV? Pretty much anything in your home.
Do you see where I am coming from? Lots of countries seem to be able to successfully sell into the EU without being members of this fabled single market.
Housebuilders are a highly leveraged bet on the health of the UK economy. That's why they tanked so badly at the time of the financial crisis, why they have been such a good investment in the Osborne recovery, and why they are falling so rapidly now. Now is probably too early to go back in, I think. The time of maximum fear isn't yet.
Their recovery last time depended on government intervention. The government will have far more important priorities this time. Sometimes it really is a falling knife.
Housebuilders are a highly leveraged bet on the health of the UK economy. That's why they tanked so badly at the time of the financial crisis, why they have been such a good investment in the Osborne recovery, and why they are falling so rapidly now. Now is probably too early to go back in, I think. The time of maximum fear isn't yet.
As a general rule after such a crash prices continue to decline for 6 months or more.
I think the FTSE bottomed out in early 2009, rather than in autumn 2008.
Free movement deals with Australian and the like are fine as the traffic is lightly to be two way.
Free movement with countries that have much lower wages and welfare provision is only ever going to end in tears for both countries.
Such utter common sense. Too bad it didn't occur to Bliar and our fine government machine in 2004.
If these reports are true, Australia and New Zealand are, as ever, proving themselves to be far better friends than we deserve. After the way we treated them in 1973, they should have told us to f off.
David Wilcock ✔@DavidWilcockPA - Paul Mason calls for "100 new MPs" - deselection hint.
The Journalist and former Economics Editor for BBC2's Newsnight, has been speaking at the Momentum rally outside parliament. He said Labour needed 100 potential new MPs, young people, women, ethnic minority people, gay people, and disabled people - people who have “suffered the hardship of working-class life”.
This could make selection shortlists er, interesting?
Housebuilders are a highly leveraged bet on the health of the UK economy. That's why they tanked so badly at the time of the financial crisis, why they have been such a good investment in the Osborne recovery, and why they are falling so rapidly now. Now is probably too early to go back in, I think. The time of maximum fear isn't yet.
what bloody recovery ? Richard I supply the building trade and that's just bollocks my volumes this year are lower that last. We arent building anywhere near enough houses.
The fact that I can buy better quality wines from Oz and NZ than I can from the EU for the same price, rather gives the lie to this we must be a member of the single market schtick.
Your argument would be better served by a less subjective example.
Well if you want to think a little wider, let us ask some questions. In which country was your computer manufactured? In which counties were its components made? How about your mobile phone? Your TV? Pretty much anything in your home.
Do you see where I am coming from? Lots of countries seem to be able to successfully sell into the EU without being members of this fabled single market.
I fear logical arguments are wasted in this instance.
US CNBC saying State Department having talks with business leaders about "fat tracking" bi-lateral trade deal with UK.
When has the US ever missed an opportunity to exploit British difficulties to render us more dependent on them?
Plus we can be used to put additional pressure on the EU in their negotiations. But we have mutual interests in this because it makes us less of a supplicant with the EU too.
OK forget about odds on referenda, surely 3-1 on Italy to beat Spain is ridiculously generous. Thank you Stan James. Especially as Italy have actually looked good in the tournament and Spain really haven't.
But all the Italian media were telling us this was the worst Italian side ever, not just recently, but ever.
Italy and Germany, the 2 countries who have tournament football mastered. Betting against them is for mugs.
I don't think Italians really like proper centre forwards. I always felt Rossi was a false 9, more of a hole forward. Big, aerial strikers seem to get a lot of stick off their press.
What they really hate is conceding a goal. They seem to work on the premise that if they don't then they don't lose. They may be on to something.
This reminds me of something. Electoral law question. My father was in hospital, presenting with early dementia during the referendum campaign. He is long registered for a postal vote to I dutifully took the ballot paper in to him. But asking him later what had happened to it he couldn't remember. The ballot paper was nowhere to be found. He may might have voted and given it to ward staff to post and forgotten. Or there may have been some nefariousness on the part of ward staff. Lot's of old people with legal capacity but not quite with-it there.
Is it possible to check if a vote was actually cast?
Yes. When they are ready ask to see the " Marked Registers " at your Local Authority.
David Wilcock ✔@DavidWilcockPA - Paul Mason calls for "100 new MPs" - deselection hint.
The Journalist and former Economics Editor for BBC2's Newsnight, has been speaking at the Momentum rally outside parliament. He said Labour needed 100 potential new MPs, young people, women, ethnic minority people, gay people, and disabled people - people who have “suffered the hardship of working-class life”.
This could make selection shortlists er, interesting?
Interesting his list includes everybod but white working class folk...the type of mp labour don't seem to have these days. Stoke being represented by tristam hunt being a good example.
@jameskirkup: Tory consensus settling on some form of Norway/EEA Brexit. Get ready for Tory vs Ukip election; Labour is roadkill. https://t.co/NzlAsPfqea
Unless the economy collapses, and then the pro-EU Labs and Libs could win a majority.
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN - en election (not a recession).
If the voters then go for IN or OUt then so be it, and let's crack on
Do you imagine for one moment that, had Remain won by a similar margin, it would have been considered necessary to back up that decision with a General Election? After all, some 48.5% would have disagreed with government policy.
I absolutely believe people would have demanded the same. We have proof some would not have regarded a result of this nature the other way as definitive.
what bloody recovery ? Richard I supply the building trade and that's just bollocks my volumes this year are lower that last. We arent building anywhere near enough houses.
Confidence has been falling for some months, and the housebuilders' shares with them. More pain to come, I fear. You voted for it, I understand. I hope your business isn't too badly affected over the next couple of years.
We've been downgraded. Our last AAA credit rating goes. I don't that matters in actuality but the sentiment/narrative it feeds is awful.
Remind me who gave all that crap AAA before the 2008 crash
I agree actually. The agencies are discredited and our " Credit Rating " is actually our Bond Yields. Which are falling but for the wrong reasons. I just think it fuels the narrative and the Paradox of Thrift. Also their cited rationale for the downgrade, which frankly anyone could read on Twitter or indeed here, is however accurate.
Free movement deals with Australian and the like are fine as the traffic is lightly to be two way.
Free movement with countries that have much lower wages and welfare provision is only ever going to end in tears for both countries.
Such utter common sense. Too bad it didn't occur to Bliar and our fine government machine in 2004.
If these reports are true, Australia and New Zealand are, as ever, proving themselves to be far better friends than we deserve. After the way we treated them in 1973, they should have told us to f off.
They could quite easily be offering free trade in goods. Goods. Not services.
Slightly more use to the UK than a chocolate teapot but given the situation it might be grasped at just to send out the right signals.
I think it's time some of the wobblier and more gelatinous of pb-ers got a bloody grip, the flailing and mewling on here has been pathetic. This is a great and ancient nation, we will prosper in time, as we have prospered before. The shackles of the EU have been struck from our limbs and now we can walk tall and free.
So stop this pitiful bedwettting and get on with it. You know who I mean.
*stops staring at mirror*
*climbs up Primrose Hill*
It seems to me that the saddest part of this entire fiasco is not that the UK will or may or may not leave the EU, or join EFTA or the EEA or a renewed Imperial Preference Sphere, but that we have just thrown away our reputation for stability. There really are very few countries in the world that can point to decades, let alone centuries of stable government. It was always part of Britain's appeal as a place to live and come to do business that we change through evolution, not revolution. Crises come and go, sometimes of our making, sometimes forced upon us, but we could always point out that we don't EVER decide to throw the toys out of the pram and have a political / constitutional meltdown just for shits and giggles.
Until now.
It's a bit like the old saw about how do the Oxbridge colleges have such perfect lawns - they just do the same thing over and over again for hundreds of years. And now we've just poured a tonne (sorry, TON, now that we're free of the EU jackboot!) of paraquat onto our lawn...
I heard a number of students say that they believed if they didn't vote Remain their student fees would go up. There are a lot of idiots out there.
Their fees won't go up, but if Britain leaves the EU then the fees paid by EU undergraduates at British universities are likely to go up by a lot. At the moment they pay the same fees as home students.
I am well aware of that. As a result, UK student fees in theory could go down (at least at top unis) as there isn't a shortage of people willing to pay the international going rate for top quality education.
So admit thick rich foreigners rather than bright not-so-rich ones?
Many British students have friends from elsewhere in the EU, they don't want fees for EU students to go up, and they voted Remain partly for that reason.
Personally I think British universities admit too many foreign students, both from elsewhere in the EU and from China and elsewhere. At some Cambridge colleges about 20% of undergraduates are Chinese. Education should be improved here so that there are more bright British candidates.
Sorry but this is nonsense. I'm an admissions tutor at a Cambridge college & it's simply not true that 20% of undergraduates at some colleges are Chinese. In 2015 there were 76 Chinese and 87 from Hong Kong out of 3,449 admissions. In total 782 students were admitted from outside the UK.
I think it's time some of the wobblier and more gelatinous of pb-ers got a bloody grip, the flailing and mewling on here has been pathetic. This is a great and ancient nation, we will prosper in time, as we have prospered before. The shackles of the EU have been struck from our limbs and now we can walk tall and free.
So stop this pitiful bedwettting and get on with it. You know who I mean.
Michael Fabricant And so it begins. The PM of Australia announces that he has spoken with the PM of New Zealand to be the1st with a trade deal with the UK
Someone else said that Ghana are following. Any word on Canada.
The Annual Commonwealth conference could become quite an important event in the UK political calendar.
Chocolate and, umm, what do we even get from Australia?
Anyway, chocolate is all you need.
At one point we used to get quite a lot of stuff from Australia, but EU tariffs didn't exactly help with wanting to trade with us.
You can buy Kangaroo steaks at Aldi (and jolly nice they are to) plus of course Australian wines sell well. The fact that I can buy better quality wines from Oz and NZ than I can from the EU for the same price, rather gives the lie to this we must be a member of the single market schtick.
Why bother with any of those when Chile does better wine for a third the price?
Fair point about the quality of some Chilean wines, we used to drink quite a lot them but not so much these days since we gave up the Red. Not sure a third of the price applies to the Antipodean stuff though - Cook's Bay Sauvignon Blanc from NZ is only £6.50 locally (probably pay £12 plus for Frog stuff of equivalent quality)
Obviously overvalued previously or someone is stupid.
The temptation to buy shares in housebuilders is almost irresistible. Are we no longer wanting new houses? Surely they weren't all being sold to immigrants. Massive overreaction.
My dad reckons they will stop building houses because no one will be able to get a mortgage and house prices will fall. But it is tempting to think that the immigration tap might be turned off too. Personally I think that would be an error of judgement by the City - not like they've got anything wrong recently, of course!
The sharp fall in banking shares not just in the UK but pretty much everywhere is worrying but I don't see any sign yet of the sort of liquidity issues that we had in 2008. There is very little sign of the mortgage market tightening up so far.
It is possible that London in particular will be hit by a reduction in foreign capital looking for a safe home but over the whole country 30% off house builders with decent land banks just looks daft.
The sharp fall in sterling will also make London property MORE attractive to foreign buyers. Suddenly prime London is 20% cheaper - making up for all those new taxes and charges.
Who knows. The initial few days have been rocky. Very very rocky. But we're not vanquished.
They won't like the currency risk, even when its in their favour. The stability was part of the package. But yes, our media are showing an incredibly parochial viewpoint in claiming every movement is somehow a consequence of Brexit. I believe that things will calm down over the next few weeks.
Michael Fabricant And so it begins. The PM of Australia announces that he has spoken with the PM of New Zealand to be the1st with a trade deal with the UK
Someone else said that Ghana are following. Any word on Canada.
The Annual Commonwealth conference could become quite an important event in the UK political calendar.
Chocolate and, umm, what do we even get from Australia?
Anyway, chocolate is all you need.
At one point we used to get quite a lot of stuff from Australia, but EU tariffs didn't exactly help with wanting to trade with us.
You can buy Kangaroo steaks at Aldi (and jolly nice they are to) plus of course Australian wines sell well. The fact that I can buy better quality wines from Oz and NZ than I can from the EU for the same price, rather gives the lie to this we must be a member of the single market schtick.
Why bother with any of those when Chile does better wine for a third the price?
Fair point about the quality of some Chilean wines, we used to drink quite a lot them but not so much these days since we gave up the Red. Not sure a third of the price applies to the Antipodean stuff though - Cook's Bay Sauvignon Blanc from NZ is only £6.50 locally (probably pay £12 plus for Frog stuff of equivalent quality)
Aldi NZ Pinot Grigio £5.50 a bottle really good drink it during the week wine.
I'm just waiting for the real squealing to start when interest rates are raised to prop up the pound.
When has that actually worked?
If there is a genuine crash in Sterling, there is absolutely nothing the BoE or Westminster can do to stop it.
Surely that would only happen if the banks were insolvent?
It happened as recently as 1992 and had nothing to do with bank solvency.
Modern economies of the size of the UK can do NOTHING to support their currency. It is completely outwith their control. It's one of the reasons why the debate about "control of interest rates and currency" was laughable during Indyref. Of course Scotland couldn't but then neither can the UK.
US CNBC saying State Department having talks with business leaders about "fat tracking" bi-lateral trade deal with UK.
When has the US ever missed an opportunity to exploit British difficulties to render us more dependent on them?
Never. Which is why I ACCURATELY predicted against PB shrewdies that they would be knocking our door down to get us to sign up to one of their shonky trade deals the minute we Brexited. Those juicy NHS contracts won't just hoover themselves up.
David Wilcock ✔@DavidWilcockPA - Paul Mason calls for "100 new MPs" - deselection hint.
The Journalist and former Economics Editor for BBC2's Newsnight, has been speaking at the Momentum rally outside parliament. He said Labour needed 100 potential new MPs, young people, women, ethnic minority people, gay people, and disabled people - people who have “suffered the hardship of working-class life”.
This could make selection shortlists er, interesting?
Remember that this Labour fiasco is happening at a time when the UK has more worldwide attention than at any point for decades.
What will people across the word think when they see our Marxist leader of the opposition facing down a coup by people who are perhaps even more out of touch with their voters?
Michael Fabricant And so it begins. The PM of Australia announces that he has spoken with the PM of New Zealand to be the1st with a trade deal with the UK
Someone else said that Ghana are following. Any word on Canada.
The Annual Commonwealth conference could become quite an important event in the UK political calendar.
Chocolate and, umm, what do we even get from Australia?
Anyway, chocolate is all you need.
At one point we used to get quite a lot of stuff from Australia, but EU tariffs didn't exactly help with wanting to trade with us.
You can buy Kangaroo steaks at Aldi (and jolly nice they are to) plus of course Australian wines sell well. The fact that I can buy better quality wines from Oz and NZ than I can from the EU for the same price, rather gives the lie to this we must be a member of the single market schtick.
Why bother with any of those when Chile does better wine for a third the price?
Fair point about the quality of some Chilean wines, we used to drink quite a lot them but not so much these days since we gave up the Red. Not sure a third of the price applies to the Antipodean stuff though - Cook's Bay Sauvignon Blanc from NZ is only £6.50 locally (probably pay £12 plus for Frog stuff of equivalent quality)
How does Cooks Bay compare to the Oyster Bay Sauvignon Blanc? I used to get that regularly till the price got absolutely stupid.
US CNBC saying State Department having talks with business leaders about "fat tracking" bi-lateral trade deal with UK.
When has the US ever missed an opportunity to exploit British difficulties to render us more dependent on them?
Never. Which is why I ACCURATELY predicted against PB shrewdies that they would be knocking our door down to get us to sign up to one of their shonky trade deals the minute we Brexited. Those juicy NHS contracts won't just hoover themselves up.
Given that I presume you wouldn't welcome this, what's your suggestion for how to prevent it? Or were you another turkey voting for Christmas?
I heard a number of students say that they believed if they didn't vote Remain their student fees would go up. There are a lot of idiots out there.
Their fees won't go up, but if Britain leaves the EU then the fees paid by EU undergraduates at British universities are likely to go up by a lot. At the moment they pay the same fees as home students.
I am well aware of that. As a result, UK student fees in theory could go down (at least at top unis) as there isn't a shortage of people willing to pay the international going rate for top quality education.
So admit thick rich foreigners rather than bright not-so-rich ones?
Many British students have friends from elsewhere in the EU, they don't want fees for EU students to go up, and they voted Remain partly for that reason.
Personally I think British universities admit too many foreign students, both from elsewhere in the EU and from China and elsewhere. At some Cambridge colleges about 20% of undergraduates are Chinese. Education should be improved here so that there are more bright British candidates.
Sorry but this is nonsense. I'm an admissions tutor at a Cambridge college & it's simply not true that 20% of undergraduates at some colleges are Chinese. In 2015 there were 76 Chinese and 87 from Hong Kong out of 3,449 admissions. In total 782 students were admitted from outside the UK.
There you go, throwing around informed facts.... It'll do you no good round here.
Shadsy suggested in the Racing Post a possible reason the referendum odds were wrong.
Prices are set by weight of money. Most of the money was for Remain, which was duly made favourite. But most of the bets were for Leave -- it is just that the stakes were smaller.
Shadsy wondered if, in hindsight, more heed should have been paid to this since the punters are also participants in the referendum, and however deep the Remain punters' pockets, they still had only one vote each.
I'm just waiting for the real squealing to start when interest rates are raised to prop up the pound.
When has that actually worked?
If there is a genuine crash in Sterling, there is absolutely nothing the BoE or Westminster can do to stop it.
Surely that would only happen if the banks were insolvent?
It happened as recently as 1992 and had nothing to do with bank solvency.
Modern economies of the size of the UK can do NOTHING to support their currency. It is completely outwith their control. It's one of the reasons why the debate about "control of interest rates and currency" was laughable during Indyref. Of course Scotland couldn't but then neither can the UK.
Eh?????
Admittedly the government doesn't have complete control over the market, but seriously? I'd suggest having your own currency and being able to change interest rates is better than not having it.
If our credit rating is lower why are investors piling into government bonds (gilts)?
Lots of them will be required to hold sterling assets directly, rather than create them synthetically (ie buying a US Treasury then swapping it to GBP via a bank). This means they must keep gilts, because there are no alternative risk-free sterling assets.
Foreign investors (fortunately) don't drive the gilt market. If our budget deficit was still 10% it would be much more serious.
If our credit rating is lower why are investors piling into government bonds (gilts)?
It's a lack of confidence in the wider economy. If you're tying up some of your cash for 10 years at 1% in a gilt it's because you don't want to risk the real economy.
Housebuilders are a highly leveraged bet on the health of the UK economy. That's why they tanked so badly at the time of the financial crisis, why they have been such a good investment in the Osborne recovery, and why they are falling so rapidly now. Now is probably too early to go back in, I think. The time of maximum fear isn't yet.
Now you tell me after I've just invested all my life savings in Barrett's!
I think it's time some of the wobblier and more gelatinous of pb-ers got a bloody grip, the flailing and mewling on here has been pathetic. This is a great and ancient nation, we will prosper in time, as we have prospered before. The shackles of the EU have been struck from our limbs and now we can walk tall and free.
So stop this pitiful bedwettting and get on with it. You know who I mean.
*stops staring at mirror*
*climbs up Primrose Hill*
It seems to me that the saddest part of this entire fiasco is not that the UK will or may or may not leave the EU, or join EFTA or the EEA or a renewed Imperial Preference Sphere, but that we have just thrown away our reputation for stability. There really are very few countries in the world that can point to decades, let alone centuries of stable government. It was always part of Britain's appeal as a place to live and come to do business that we change through evolution, not revolution. Crises come and go, sometimes of our making, sometimes forced upon us, but we could always point out that we don't EVER decide to throw the toys out of the pram and have a political / constitutional meltdown just for shits and giggles.
Until now.
It's a bit like the old saw about how do the Oxbridge colleges have such perfect lawns - they just do the same thing over and over again for hundreds of years. And now we've just poured a tonne (sorry, TON, now that we're free of the EU jackboot!) of paraquat onto our lawn...
that;s simply not true
1970s economic crisis and IMF 1980s war and recession 1990s kicked out of ERM 2000s banking crisis
weve always had turbulence since capitalism causes crises but in this revolution so far there arent any bodies on the street, no strikers a la France, no meltdown a la Greece. In Europe only Germany runs us close and they have their own sets of problems which will hit them hard in the next decade imo.
Michael Fabricant And so it begins. The PM of Australia announces that he has spoken with the PM of New Zealand to be the1st with a trade deal with the UK
Someone else said that Ghana are following. Any word on Canada.
The Annual Commonwealth conference could become quite an important event in the UK political calendar.
Chocolate and, umm, what do we even get from Australia?
Anyway, chocolate is all you need.
At one point we used to get quite a lot of stuff from Australia, but EU tariffs didn't exactly help with wanting to trade with us.
You can buy Kangaroo steaks at Aldi (and jolly nice they are to) plus of course Australian wines sell well. The fact that I can buy better quality wines from Oz and NZ than I can from the EU for the same price, rather gives the lie to this we must be a member of the single market schtick.
Why bother with any of those when Chile does better wine for a third the price?
Fair point about the quality of some Chilean wines, we used to drink quite a lot them but not so much these days since we gave up the Red. Not sure a third of the price applies to the Antipodean stuff though - Cook's Bay Sauvignon Blanc from NZ is only £6.50 locally (probably pay £12 plus for Frog stuff of equivalent quality)
Free movement deals with Australian and the like are fine as the traffic is lightly to be two way.
Free movement with countries that have much lower wages and welfare provision is only ever going to end in tears for both countries.
Such utter common sense. Too bad it didn't occur to Bliar and our fine government machine in 2004.
If these reports are true, Australia and New Zealand are, as ever, proving themselves to be far better friends than we deserve. After the way we treated them in 1973, they should have told us to f off.
Blood is thicker than water.
Parable of the prodigal son..
But you are right, we are very lucky. I think though enough of them knew the people were on their side all along.
And this of course is striking fear into the EU. The commonwealth rising to rival them.
Population of EU less Britain = 440 Million.
Populauion of US = 300 Million
Population of Russia = 143 Million
Population of Japan= 127 Million
Population of UK, Oz, Nz, Canada, SA = 181 Million.
Shadsy suggested in the Racing Post a possible reason the referendum odds were wrong.
Prices are set by weight of money. Most of the money was for Remain, which was duly made favourite. But most of the bets were for Leave -- it is just that the stakes were smaller.
Shadsy wondered if, in hindsight, more heed should have been paid to this since the punters are also participants in the referendum, and however deep the Remain punters' pockets, they still had only one vote each.
Surely a modern bookie has algorithms which weight by the recency of money as well as the volume? If not, I am truly flabbergasted.
It seems to me that the saddest part of this entire fiasco is not that the UK will or may or may not leave the EU, or join EFTA or the EEA or a renewed Imperial Preference Sphere, but that we have just thrown away our reputation for stability. There really are very few countries in the world that can point to decades, let alone centuries of stable government. It was always part of Britain's appeal as a place to live and come to do business that we change through evolution, not revolution. Crises come and go, sometimes of our making, sometimes forced upon us, but we could always point out that we don't EVER decide to throw the toys out of the pram and have a political / constitutional meltdown just for shits and giggles.
Until now.
It's a bit like the old saw about how do the Oxbridge colleges have such perfect lawns - they just do the same thing over and over again for hundreds of years. And now we've just poured a tonne (sorry, TON, now that we're free of the EU jackboot!) of paraquat onto our lawn...
I agree with that. As you say, we had something very few countries could ever have and we have thrown it away.
Comments
I actually totally understand why academics were for staying, they definitely see the most positive aspects of the eu. Not just in funding but how they can conduct their research.
Ironically Italy really tore them apart in the first half, playing Spanish Tika-Taka without relying on midgets. But yeah, humans can't keep that up for 90 minutes.
LOL nice one
Not sure why as he's still 20 for next Con leader - but still indicative that someone thinks he has real chance.
The minute he said that exiting the EU would drive up the cost of labour, the real politicians sidelined him for the entire campaign!!
OK forget about odds on referenda, surely 3-1 on Italy to beat Spain is ridiculously generous. Thank you Stan James. Especially as Italy have actually looked good in the tournament and Spain really haven't.
And despite what a few racists think, we aren't going to be sending anybody home.
Seems a massive over reaction from the markets in relation to home builders.
It is possible that London in particular will be hit by a reduction in foreign capital looking for a safe home but over the whole country 30% off house builders with decent land banks just looks daft.
Italy and Germany, the 2 countries who have tournament football mastered. Betting against them is for mugs.
Some of the major builders should have been liquidated after the last financial crash and replaced with a with more smaller players in the market. Instead we had a plethora of schemes, compounded under Osborne, to prop them up.
This dictates the market - a few fivers and tenners at 3/1 is one thing but if someone comes in and dumps £30,000 on a betting shop counter at 8/15, you;re going to notice as you'll be paying out £46,000 (stake plus profit) if that comes in. Perhaps you adjust your book and go 1/2 or 4/9 or 2/5 or whatever.
It's the same on the racecourse - it's not what the fiddler on the rails does with his score it's the exchange player and the off course firms with their tens of thousands of pounds to shorten up a horse. The computer has taken over from tic-tac but the message is the same - if Ladbrokes want a horse to be 5/4 rather than 11/8 they'll make it happen.
REMAIN was short because the weight of money (as distinct from the number of punters) made it so. At 1/7 and 11/4 on voting day, the firms were taking no chances but still faced substantial liabilities if REMAIN won and 1/7 was their way of reducing those. That there were people still prepared to bet that on the assumption it was easy money tells you all you need to know.
When I worked in the shops in the 1980s, one of the strongest betting markets was Saturday morning dogs at Hackney - the bookies there would stand serious money and even an off-course punter going in with a grand wouldn't cause the ructions it would now.
Any PB Brexiter want to offer an apology for voting "Leave"? "They lied to me" - if honest is a good reason....
@JeremyCliffe
Jeremy Corbyn is about to address an SWP rally outside Parliament.
Bwahahahahahahaaah
Do you see where I am coming from? Lots of countries seem to be able to successfully sell into the EU without being members of this fabled single market.
I think the FTSE bottomed out in early 2009, rather than in autumn 2008.
If these reports are true, Australia and New Zealand are, as ever, proving themselves to be far better friends than we deserve. After the way we treated them in 1973, they should have told us to f off.
The Journalist and former Economics Editor for BBC2's Newsnight, has been speaking at the Momentum rally outside parliament. He said Labour needed 100 potential new MPs, young people, women, ethnic minority people, gay people, and disabled people - people who have “suffered the hardship of working-class life”.
This could make selection shortlists er, interesting?
If there is a genuine crash in Sterling, there is absolutely nothing the BoE or Westminster can do to stop it.
Slightly more use to the UK than a chocolate teapot but given the situation it might be grasped at just to send out the right signals.
Until now.
It's a bit like the old saw about how do the Oxbridge colleges have such perfect lawns - they just do the same thing over and over again for hundreds of years. And now we've just poured a tonne (sorry, TON, now that we're free of the EU jackboot!) of paraquat onto our lawn...
Modern economies of the size of the UK can do NOTHING to support their currency. It is completely outwith their control. It's one of the reasons why the debate about "control of interest rates and currency" was laughable during Indyref. Of course Scotland couldn't but then neither can the UK.
What will people across the word think when they see our Marxist leader of the opposition facing down a coup by people who are perhaps even more out of touch with their voters?
The political crisis will not go away quickly.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-vote-leave-wipes-nhs-350m-claim-and-rest-of-its-website-after-eu-referendum-a7105546.html
Prices are set by weight of money. Most of the money was for Remain, which was duly made favourite. But most of the bets were for Leave -- it is just that the stakes were smaller.
Shadsy wondered if, in hindsight, more heed should have been paid to this since the punters are also participants in the referendum, and however deep the Remain punters' pockets, they still had only one vote each.
Admittedly the government doesn't have complete control over the market, but seriously? I'd suggest having your own currency and being able to change interest rates is better than not having it.
Foreign investors (fortunately) don't drive the gilt market. If our budget deficit was still 10% it would be much more serious.
https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/747418086031097856
1970s economic crisis and IMF
1980s war and recession
1990s kicked out of ERM
2000s banking crisis
weve always had turbulence since capitalism causes crises but in this revolution so far there arent any bodies on the street, no strikers a la France, no meltdown a la Greece. In Europe only Germany runs us close and they have their own sets of problems which will hit them hard in the next decade imo.
Bloody hell the CIA Obesity Service has eyes on Soames and Pickles!
Parable of the prodigal son..
But you are right, we are very lucky. I think though enough of them knew the people were on their side all along.
And this of course is striking fear into the EU. The commonwealth rising to rival them.
Population of EU less Britain = 440 Million.
Populauion of US = 300 Million
Population of Russia = 143 Million
Population of Japan= 127 Million
Population of UK, Oz, Nz, Canada, SA = 181 Million.
Population of whole commonwealth 2 Billion
'A two-notch downgrade is pretty unusual, is it not?'
The same people that were giving the sub prime junk triple A ratings ?