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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who say that the bookies got EURef wrong don’t unders

SystemSystem Posts: 11,823
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who say that the bookies got EURef wrong don’t understand betting

As well as the cries that the polls got EURef wrong there’s been something of a backlash against the betting industry which more than at any previous election had sought to promote itself in the manner that Ladbrokes did in the graphic above.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,397
    The house always wins.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,179
    edited June 2016
    Boris has blown his chance of becoming PM this afternoon.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Have many bookmakers stated whether or not they won overall? Shadsy implied Ladbrokes had in his piece.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameskirkup: Tory consensus settling on some form of Norway/EEA Brexit. Get ready for Tory vs Ukip election; Labour is roadkill. https://t.co/NzlAsPfqea
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris has blown his chance of becoming PM this afternoon.

    Good news for May? :D
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,864
    During the referendum campaign, I found it interesting how many people don't understand Betfair works.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    My son, but not me, made a small killing on Brexit. There was champaign and rich menus for his immediate family over the weekend.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,204
    FPT
    HurstLlama said:

    williamglenn said:

    HurstLlama said:

    The fact that there would be adverse consequences in the short term was well advertised and accepted (see Charles' posts on here). I see no reason to run around panicking in best Corporal Jones fashion.

    Adverse economic consequences are one thing, but I have a feeling that most Leavers didn't really consider the adverse political consequences.
    What adverse political consequences, Mr. Glenn? Surely not that Cameron has gone (and soon I hope his sidekick will follow him) or that Labour is falling apart. Inconvenient in that the process of government has to go on, but the summer recess is coming up and I am sure it will all be sorted by the autumn.

    Scotland gearing up for Independence might be regarded as adverse by some, but it has been clear for a long time that the union is broken beyond repair. I had hoped they go in 2014. So if Scotland want to go and use the exit from the UK as a pretext then that is fine by me.
    You correctly identified this as a revolution, which is so far not under any control.

    There is no way of predicting where things will end up, and if we do go through with Brexit, there is no telling which forces will end up in power in whatever is left of the UK. The genie has been let out of the bottle.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris has blown his chance of becoming PM this afternoon.

    Why, whats he done?
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    I have heard it said that May is very able and hardworking - she has managed to hold down the home office brief which is often a political graveyard after all.

    I dont for a minute believe that she was any more a remainer than Corbyn. Like him she just towed that line and kept a very low profile
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    JackW,

    While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    During the referendum campaign, I found it interesting how many people don't understand Betfair works.

    I even saw one article (I forget where) in which the journalist wrote that punters on the Betfair exchange were overwhelmingly backing Remain.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    I have much sympathy for them Jack. I think it's atavistic provincial lunacy.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    MikeK said:


    Oh, this is pathetic! I can see that the class of 2016 would have surrendered in 1940. What wallies. I am truly ashamed of some of the moaning on PB today.

    The situations are in no way applicable and so the suggestion the reactions would be different is utter nonsense speculation. People going back to that sort of line is worse then calling on the spirit of thatcher, it's fatuous, crass bollocks.

    People could stand to toughen up, to be firmer, but it's a godsdamned political blog not a war, people are not shaming themselves or their generation by reacting pseudonymously in a less than admirable fashion.

    This EU campaign is getting to me, that's twice I've snapped at people. But would a 1940s man have done do more than twice? That's the question, apparently.

    Honestly, I like you mikeK, but that remark was utter nonsense.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KayBurley: Love the new hashtag for those who regret voting Leave...
    #Bridiot
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    I have heard it said that May is very able and hardworking - she has managed to hold down the home office brief which is often a political graveyard after all.

    I dont for a minute believe that she was any more a remainer than Corbyn. Like him she just towed that line and kept a very low profile

    I suspect her first speech will be critical for her chances.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    But apparently if I empathise with people like this - and I have friends and family in a similar situation - I am mewling and bleating, and should get a grip.

    I don't mind the insults - I dish out far worse. It does surprise me how flinty and unfeeling some pb-ers can be. But maybe parenthood has just made me soppy.
    I think it is fair to say that fatherhood changes one's worldview in a more sensitive direction Sean.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,179
    Osborne looks like he's spent the weekend with a bottle of Scotch.

    Looks completely destroyed...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    Scott_P said:

    @KayBurley: Love the new hashtag for those who regret voting Leave...
    #Bridiot

    I'll stick with people having bremorse until it's indisputable things have gone bad and won't get better. In that case many will become bridiots.

  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    But apparently if I empathise with people like this - and I have friends and family in a similar situation - I am mewling and bleating, and should get a grip.

    I don't mind the insults - I dish out far worse. It does surprise me how flinty and unfeeling some pb-ers can be. But maybe parenthood has just made me soppy.

    It is very sad when anyone loses their job and has financial worries - but this is happening all the time with or without Brexit. Emotional concerns like that cannot stop us sticking with the decision that will have the best outcome for Britian - as long we grasp the opportunities it provides.

  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    May could well win this. EEA quick sharp with FOM and virtually unchanged from what we had already. Europhile Labour seats shoring up a euromoderate position in the HoC. Labour nasty wing sidelined for a generation.

    I'll take that.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,397
    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Tory consensus settling on some form of Norway/EEA Brexit. Get ready for Tory vs Ukip election; Labour is roadkill. https://t.co/NzlAsPfqea

    If we get Theresa May as PM, and a Norway style deal, I will consider that Britain has come away with no more than a flesh wound.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2016
    Btw, here's Ladbrokes' statement on the thread topic:
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/746214367583100930
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jack Dromey has resigned.
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    mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 217
    Several parents at my kids school have been told to get their houses on the market as they will be moved to another European capital within the next 18 months.

    One thing the result has done is deliver a blow to the city of London
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    It is pretty obvious that if lots of muppets put lots of money on poor odds bets then to ensure they dont catch a cold the bookies have to offer over generous odds on less likely outcomes to attract sufficent money to cover paying out on the likely outcome and making a loss

    6-1 was silly though, not that I am complaining.Clearly the amount of money being piled on remain meant they had to make brexit an irresistible investment to fund the remain bets.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Jack Dromey has resigned.

    Falconer next?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    The house always wins.

    4.92% in the case of Betfair Exchange.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,155
    FPT, Mr. T, I do wonder if that (a General Election under those terms) may happen.

    Mr. Smithson, not sure I agree. A referendum is a matter of assessing people's opinions. If the market's assessment makes one a strong favourite and the other side wins, the punters are plain wrong. Not only that, a Grand National doesn't have two horses in it. If it did, and one was 33/1 and won, then people would say the bookies got it wrong.

    Mr. P, too early to say that, depends on whether Corbyn goes.

    Also, Lib Dems may bounce back (especially if Labour are sunk).
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Moron calling for Corbyn to go because he didn't come and speak at Glasto...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuardianAnushka: Brussels rejects Boris Johnson 'pipe dream' over single market access - interesting piece by Jennifer Rankin https://t.co/WKW9pFvXGy
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,179
    MikeK said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris has blown his chance of becoming PM this afternoon.

    Why, whats he done?
    No show in the HoC today... Looks terrible and will have been noted by Tory MP's and party members, IMO.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Tissue_Price said:

    Btw, here's Ladbrokes' statement on the thread topic:
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/746214367583100930

    Thanks - deserves to be linked in the thread header I think.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,864
    edited June 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    During the referendum campaign, I found it interesting how many people don't understand Betfair works.

    I even saw one article (I forget where) in which the journalist wrote that punters on the Betfair exchange were overwhelmingly backing Remain.
    Someone ranted at Mike wanting to know why unlike Shadsy or Graham Sharpe from William Hill, we never saw the odds compiler from Betfair on the telly, so they could explain their odds.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''If we get Theresa May as PM, and a Norway style deal, I will consider that Britain has come away with no more than a flesh wound. ''

    Only one winner out of that. Nigel Farage.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeK said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris has blown his chance of becoming PM this afternoon.

    Why, whats he done?
    No show in the HoC today... Looks terrible and will have been noted by Tory MP's and party members, IMO.
    They will be that offended or slighted?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,777
    edited June 2016
    HurstLlama said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    JackW,

    While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.
    Port Talbot was an integrated plant that mostly built more than half a century ago, which produced next to no speciality steels, and which had seen no investment for 30 years. Tata Steel chose not to invest and ran it for cash, knowing that when the next steel price downturn came, it would be toast.

    It had no indigenious source of coal or of iron ore nor any meaningful local customers. When the price of steel fell two-thirds, closure was inevitable.

    As an aside, Port Talbot doesn't use an Arc Furnace (which would be affected by EU energy directives as they use electricity), but burned coal directly.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,413
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    Osborne looks like he's spent the weekend with a bottle of Scotch.

    Looks completely destroyed...

    After what he was saying before the vote, he probably did, and, TBF, it wouldn’t have been a bad idea.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,412
    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    But apparently if I empathise with people like this - and I have friends and family in a similar situation - I am mewling and bleating, and should get a grip.

    I don't mind the insults - I dish out far worse. It does surprise me how flinty and unfeeling some pb-ers can be. But maybe parenthood has just made me soppy.

    It is very sad when anyone loses their job and has financial worries - but this is happening all the time with or without Brexit. Emotional concerns like that cannot stop us sticking with the decision that will have the best outcome for Britian - as long we grasp the opportunities it provides.

    Yes sometimes difficult decisions have to be made, but not half as difficult decisions like not evacuating cities known to be air raid targets and letting hundreds die because to do so would have given the game away that we had cracked enigma.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    I'm just glad I was alerted to how ridiculous the odds on Leave were on election day, managed to get on at 6-1
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    kle4 said:

    I'm just glad I was alerted to how ridiculous the odds on Leave were on election day, managed to get on at 6-1

    Cough, 15-1.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    HurstLlama said:

    williamglenn said:

    HurstLlama said:

    The fact that there would be adverse consequences in the short term was well advertised and accepted (see Charles' posts on here). I see no reason to run around panicking in best Corporal Jones fashion.

    Adverse economic consequences are one thing, but I have a feeling that most Leavers didn't really consider the adverse political consequences.
    What adverse political consequences, Mr. Glenn? Surely not that Cameron has gone (and soon I hope his sidekick will follow him) or that Labour is falling apart. Inconvenient in that the process of government has to go on, but the summer recess is coming up and I am sure it will all be sorted by the autumn.

    Scotland gearing up for Independence might be regarded as adverse by some, but it has been clear for a long time that the union is broken beyond repair. I had hoped they go in 2014. So if Scotland want to go and use the exit from the UK as a pretext then that is fine by me.
    You correctly identified this as a revolution, which is so far not under any control.

    There is no way of predicting where things will end up, and if we do go through with Brexit, there is no telling which forces will end up in power in whatever is left of the UK. The genie has been let out of the bottle.
    You might be correct in your conclusion, Mr. Glenn. I am pleased that you agree with me that we are in the midst of a revolution.

    Of course it will be a very British revolution, so I don't expect to find politicians hanging from lampposts. There may be some sharp notes to the Times and a lot of guff on the Internet, but it will work itself out. Who knows you and I might both like the end result.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Project Fear Reality

    https://twitter.com/kiranstacey/status/747468502500515842
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm just glad I was alerted to how ridiculous the odds on Leave were on election day, managed to get on at 6-1

    Cough, 15-1.
    I was at work at the period of peak mania, couldn't access any sites!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,179
    Scott_P said:

    @GuardianAnushka: Brussels rejects Boris Johnson 'pipe dream' over single market access - interesting piece by Jennifer Rankin https://t.co/WKW9pFvXGy

    To be fair, "Brussels" can say what they like. Merkel calls the shots ultimately...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,777
    Alanbrooke said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.
    UK banks will be in terrible trouble, because house prices are going to come down, and the UK consumer is terribly indebted.

    In the long-term, this is good news. But there's a reason why Lloyds and RBS have been so hammered.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    For those curious about The Petition, here's an interesting link about how easily faked it is.

    Oh, and here's a Python script for automated signing. Wonder if rcs is inadvertently responsible for a million signatures...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Scott_P said:

    @KayBurley: Love the new hashtag for those who regret voting Leave...
    #Bridiot

    "love it"?

    To me it smacks of everything the Remain campaign was all along - smug, patronising and arrogant.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,777
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT, Mr. T, I do wonder if that (a General Election under those terms) may happen.

    Mr. Smithson, not sure I agree. A referendum is a matter of assessing people's opinions. If the market's assessment makes one a strong favourite and the other side wins, the punters are plain wrong. Not only that, a Grand National doesn't have two horses in it. If it did, and one was 33/1 and won, then people would say the bookies got it wrong.

    Mr. P, too early to say that, depends on whether Corbyn goes.

    Also, Lib Dems may bounce back (especially if Labour are sunk).

    The bookies will get the 33/1 horse race wrong approximately one in thirty three times.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Jobabob said:

    May could well win this. EEA quick sharp with FOM and virtually unchanged from what we had already. Europhile Labour seats shoring up a euromoderate position in the HoC. Labour nasty wing sidelined for a generation.

    I'll take that.

    Also know as PM Nigel Farage at the next election.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,413
    kle4 said:

    MikeK said:


    Oh, this is pathetic! I can see that the class of 2016 would have surrendered in 1940. What wallies. I am truly ashamed of some of the moaning on PB today.

    The situations are in no way applicable and so the suggestion the reactions would be different is utter nonsense speculation. People going back to that sort of line is worse then calling on the spirit of thatcher, it's fatuous, crass bollocks.

    People could stand to toughen up, to be firmer, but it's a godsdamned political blog not a war, people are not shaming themselves or their generation by reacting pseudonymously in a less than admirable fashion.

    This EU campaign is getting to me, that's twice I've snapped at people. But would a 1940s man have done do more than twice? That's the question, apparently.

    Honestly, I like you mikeK, but that remark was utter nonsense.
    A significant part of the Tory pary WAS for giving up in 1940!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,777
    MyBurningEars said:

    For those curious about The Petition, here's an interesting link about how easily faked it is.

    Oh, and here's a Python script for automated signing. Wonder if rcs is inadvertently responsible for a million signatures...

    That's some ugly code. No way I am responsible.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JonCisBack said:

    To me it smacks of everything the Remain campaign was all along - smug, patronising and arrogant.

    ...and completely accurate.

    What's the Brexiteer phrase? Oh, yes,

    Suck it up, whiner...
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,397
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT, Mr. T, I do wonder if that (a General Election under those terms) may happen.

    Mr. Smithson, not sure I agree. A referendum is a matter of assessing people's opinions. If the market's assessment makes one a strong favourite and the other side wins, the punters are plain wrong. Not only that, a Grand National doesn't have two horses in it. If it did, and one was 33/1 and won, then people would say the bookies got it wrong.

    Mr. P, too early to say that, depends on whether Corbyn goes.

    Also, Lib Dems may bounce back (especially if Labour are sunk).

    The bookies will get the 33/1 horse race wrong approximately one in thirty three times.
    Nate Silver bulls*t

    If you think a 33/1 horse has come in, you probably priced it wrong.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The Trots are coming to save Jezza...
    https://twitter.com/TehmoorKhalid/status/747468635883593729
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,128
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    But apparently if I empathise with people like this - and I have friends and family in a similar situation - I am mewling and bleating, and should get a grip.

    I don't mind the insults - I dish out far worse. It does surprise me how flinty and unfeeling some pb-ers can be. But maybe parenthood has just made me soppy.
    Indeed you have dished out far worse - to me among many others - water off this duck's back, babies need lots of attention, whatever age they are.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

    Sometimes, I think he's just the world's greatest troll
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    MyBurningEars said:

    For those curious about The Petition, here's an interesting link about how easily faked it is.

    Oh, and here's a Python script for automated signing. Wonder if rcs is inadvertently responsible for a million signatures...

    I'm sure signatures on a lot of online petitions are fake. With three million and more, how significant a percentage is it is the question?

    Although even that doesn't matter, since even if its ideas are good, which is a reasonable debate, it's too late now.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    But apparently if I empathise with people like this - and I have friends and family in a similar situation - I am mewling and bleating, and should get a grip.

    I don't mind the insults - I dish out far worse. It does surprise me how flinty and unfeeling some pb-ers can be. But maybe parenthood has just made me soppy.
    Not at all Sean.

    You were perfectly entitled to your position that you robustly defended, despite the odd wobble and have no reason whatsoever to rebuke yourself. My point was simply that at times we forget that in the heat of battle normal folk and their lives are often forgotten amid the welter of claim and counter claim.

    The head of this family firm, who I have known since he was a new born, was in tears as he recounted to me the scenes as he explained to his long serving staff their desperate situation. It was traumatic.

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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    @ a variety of posters. WW2 ended 70 years ago. It's if no relevance.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,717
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

    Another failure of leadership.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

    Feels like a mistake. All his opponents in one room.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,412
    rcs1000 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.
    UK banks will be in terrible trouble, because house prices are going to come down, and the UK consumer is terribly indebted.

    In the long-term, this is good news. But there's a reason why Lloyds and RBS have been so hammered.
    I didnt say UK banks were all in good shape Robert, but that banking wise things on the Continent appear worse. I can't think of a Continental country which doesnt have its own big fat version of RBS and its twin brother.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,204
    Alanbrooke said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.
    UK banks will be in terrible trouble, because house prices are going to come down, and the UK consumer is terribly indebted.

    In the long-term, this is good news. But there's a reason why Lloyds and RBS have been so hammered.
    I didnt say UK banks were all in good shape Robert, but that banking wise things on the Continent appear worse. I can't think of a Continental country which doesnt have its own big fat version of RBS and its twin brother.
    Belarus? ;)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    matt said:

    @ a variety of posters. WW2 ended 70 years ago. It's if no relevance.

    yes
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Farage and UKIP cannot win a GE. They cannot get over 25% of the vote. They're just too toxic for too many.''

    I wonder how many of the 17 million brexiteers would see keeping free movement as the ultimate betrayal of what they voted for.

    5 million? 8? 10?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,397
    DanSmith said:

    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

    Feels like a mistake. All his opponents in one room.
    It's the white flag, obviously. He hopes the membership will save him...
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    GIN1138 said:

    Osborne looks like he's spent the weekend with a bottle of Scotch.

    Looks completely destroyed...

    Good, shame no one gave him the revolver to go with it. After his threaten budget speech, to say nothing of his performance over the last six years, so he should.

    "March of the makers", "Rebalance the economy", remember those?
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    rcs1000 said:

    HurstLlama said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    JackW,

    While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.
    Port Talbot was an integrated plant that mostly built more than half a century ago, which produced next to no speciality steels, and which had seen no investment for 30 years. Tata Steel chose not to invest and ran it for cash, knowing that when the next steel price downturn came, it would be toast.

    It had no indigenious source of coal or of iron ore nor any meaningful local customers. When the price of steel fell two-thirds, closure was inevitable.

    As an aside, Port Talbot doesn't use an Arc Furnace (which would be affected by EU energy directives as they use electricity), but burned coal directly.

    Lol, no need for experts showing off their fancy learning.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    taffys said:

    ''Farage and UKIP cannot win a GE. They cannot get over 25% of the vote. They're just too toxic for too many.''

    I wonder how many of the 17 million brexiteers would see keeping free movement as the ultimate betrayal of what they voted for.

    5 million? 8? 10?

    If I had to guess I'd say 5. We may find out though!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,657
    Scott_P said:

    JonCisBack said:

    To me it smacks of everything the Remain campaign was all along - smug, patronising and arrogant.

    ...and completely accurate.

    What's the Brexiteer phrase? Oh, yes,

    Suck it up, whiner...
    I think you meant "suck it up, winner...."
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Scott_P said:

    @KayBurley: Love the new hashtag for those who regret voting Leave...
    #Bridiot

    PB Burleys...
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''That's fascinating -for its hints that we won't push the button. ''

    You could see this as a game of poker, now. Maybe it always was.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,155
    Mr. Matt, unlike the Second Punic War :D

    What time is the People's Front of Judea meeting?
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    rcs1000 said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    For those curious about The Petition, here's an interesting link about how easily faked it is.

    Oh, and here's a Python script for automated signing. Wonder if rcs is inadvertently responsible for a million signatures...

    That's some ugly code. No way I am responsible.
    Wasn't blaming you for that :) Apparently there are some Youtube videos explaining how to use it, though I haven't found them. Wondered if they made any use of PythonAnywhere.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    taffys said:

    ''Farage and UKIP cannot win a GE. They cannot get over 25% of the vote. They're just too toxic for too many.''

    I wonder how many of the 17 million brexiteers would see keeping free movement as the ultimate betrayal of what they voted for.

    5 million? 8? 10?

    Our we looking at a realignment of our political parties?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,128
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    JonCisBack said:

    To me it smacks of everything the Remain campaign was all along - smug, patronising and arrogant.

    ...and completely accurate.

    What's the Brexiteer phrase? Oh, yes,

    Suck it up, whiner...
    I think you meant "suck it up, winner...."
    Why would they say that? That would be really stupid. Oh........
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    taffys said:

    ''Farage and UKIP cannot win a GE. They cannot get over 25% of the vote. They're just too toxic for too many.''

    I wonder how many of the 17 million brexiteers would see keeping free movement as the ultimate betrayal of what they voted for.

    5 million? 8? 10?

    0, absolutely no Leave voters cared about free movement at all. All about sovereignty and straight bananas.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    HurstLlama said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    JackW,

    While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.
    Port Talbot was an integrated plant that mostly built more than half a century ago, which produced next to no speciality steels, and which had seen no investment for 30 years. Tata Steel chose not to invest and ran it for cash, knowing that when the next steel price downturn came, it would be toast.

    It had no indigenious source of coal or of iron ore nor any meaningful local customers. When the price of steel fell two-thirds, closure was inevitable.

    As an aside, Port Talbot doesn't use an Arc Furnace (which would be affected by EU energy directives as they use electricity), but burned coal directly.
    Did I mention Port Talbot? Redcar closed as well didn't it?

    However that is to miss the point of my original post. Jobs are lost all the time and no one gives a shit. JackW knows some people who have lost out on EU trade, very sorry for the people concerned but I didn't see JackW talking about the jobs that have been lost the other way, or globalization generally.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    GIN1138 said:

    Osborne looks like he's spent the weekend with a bottle of Scotch.

    Looks completely destroyed...

    Tissue_Price said:

    AndyJS said:

    Jack Dromey has resigned.

    Falconer next?
    LOL
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,060
    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    I'm really sorry to hear this.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Matt, unlike the Second Punic War :D

    What time is the People's Front of Judea meeting?

    https://twitter.com/sarhangg/status/747470891416752128
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,128
    Alanbrooke said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    JackW said:

    Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

    On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

    I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

    Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

    seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.
    UK banks will be in terrible trouble, because house prices are going to come down, and the UK consumer is terribly indebted.

    In the long-term, this is good news. But there's a reason why Lloyds and RBS have been so hammered.
    I didnt say UK banks were all in good shape Robert, but that banking wise things on the Continent appear worse. I can't think of a Continental country which doesnt have its own big fat version of RBS and its twin brother.
    Correct. But bringing the whole edifice crashing down is hardly the best opener to the Brexit negotiations.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Michael Fabricant
    And so it begins. The PM of Australia announces that he has spoken with the PM of New Zealand to be the1st with a trade deal with the UK

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-27/turnbull-orders-orders-urgent-review-of-brexit-implications/7546890
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,412
    taffys said:

    ''Farage and UKIP cannot win a GE. They cannot get over 25% of the vote. They're just too toxic for too many.''

    I wonder how many of the 17 million brexiteers would see keeping free movement as the ultimate betrayal of what they voted for.

    5 million? 8? 10?

    if 17% said migration was their main motive Id go for 3.5-4 million
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Alistair said:

    taffys said:

    ''Farage and UKIP cannot win a GE. They cannot get over 25% of the vote. They're just too toxic for too many.''

    I wonder how many of the 17 million brexiteers would see keeping free movement as the ultimate betrayal of what they voted for.

    5 million? 8? 10?

    0, absolutely no Leave voters cared about free movement at all. All about sovereignty and straight bananas.
    Same problem as before - pollsters missing the white working class. I would hazard a guess that quite a few Labour seats would be under threat, now their supporters know about voting.

    In Sunderland, for instance, 62-38, the Tories would tactically vote in their droves.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    Alistair said:

    Jobabob said:

    May could well win this. EEA quick sharp with FOM and virtually unchanged from what we had already. Europhile Labour seats shoring up a euromoderate position in the HoC. Labour nasty wing sidelined for a generation.

    I'll take that.

    Also know as PM Nigel Farage at the next election.
    Farage cannot win a GE. No way.

    What would happen in that situation is you'd get a Chirac versus Le Pen scenario, where the centre left and maybe hard left would reluctantly side with the centre right, to prevent the UKIP right doing any business.

    An ironically European turn-out. Happens all the time across the continent.


    If I get time I'm going to run the numbers on GE15 and look at thr UKIP second places and see how close they are and what kind of swing they need, especially in leave voting Tory seats.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    Scott_P said:

    @KayBurley: Love the new hashtag for those who regret voting Leave...
    #Bridiot

    Metropolian elite still sneering I see, rather than trying to understand why people voted the way they did.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Utterly off-topic but wonder if Snowden is regretting choosing Russia for his bolthole. Turns out Russia is not the best place in the world if you dislike mass surveillance, after all! Wonder if he is about to discover the limits of freedom of speech there...
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Aussie and NZ busting to offer UK trade and immigration deals. Gawd bless 'em (according to ABC).

    Does this mean we'll have to play the AB's even more often (Hides behind sofa).

    Also Ghana.

    We're getting killed in the rush!!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HurstLlama, Toms and Alanbrooke.

    I'm not trying to make a debating point simply to note that knowing people who are so significantly and negatively hit by the BREXIT gives one pause for thought.

    The decision is made and for good or ill the nation and individuals will have to come to terms with it.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Asa Bennett
    Caroline Lucas rubbishes idea she could be joining Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet #jexit https://t.co/uG7ekl52Qo
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,822
    If the tories settle on EEA then Boris needs to be the PM, so that they can say they are being led by a leaver and he is enacting leavers wishes (even if he's not in reality). If it's May, the cry that she is a remainer so leave are having the referendum result ignored will play into UKIP hands. (I would personally prefer May however)

    We need a "we've always been at war with eastasia" approach here - tories, labour europhiles, and remainers generally need to forget the fact that the campaign was immigration led. Going on about the backtracking helps no-one but Farage who can cry betrayal.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,128
    PlatoSaid said:

    Michael Fabricant
    And so it begins. The PM of Australia announces that he has spoken with the PM of New Zealand to be the1st with a trade deal with the UK

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-27/turnbull-orders-orders-urgent-review-of-brexit-implications/7546890

    Have the £ and FTSE risen yet?
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    DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    SeanT said:

    Alistair said:

    Jobabob said:

    May could well win this. EEA quick sharp with FOM and virtually unchanged from what we had already. Europhile Labour seats shoring up a euromoderate position in the HoC. Labour nasty wing sidelined for a generation.

    I'll take that.

    Also know as PM Nigel Farage at the next election.
    Farage cannot win a GE. No way.

    What would happen in that situation is you'd get a Chirac versus Le Pen scenario, where the centre left and maybe hard left would reluctantly side with the centre right, to prevent the UKIP right doing any business.

    An ironically European turn-out. Happens all the time across the continent.


    Tory remainers switch to lib dem
    Labour leavers vote ukip
    Tory leavers vote tory or ukip

    Tory UKIP coalition with Farage DPM more than a 33-1 chance!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,155
    Mr. Crosby, Corbyn as PM. There's a thought.

    Mr. W, that's sad news. I hope your own (health) situation is on the up, though.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

    How disrespectful – If there are any Labour MPs left, they should resign in protest.
This discussion has been closed.