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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942

    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid


    Blimey. I was not expecting that.

    That would be fun. We can have Mr Osborne as the Remain candidate, and whoever gets most MP support from the Leavers as the Leave candidate. Let the party members decide.
    Not happening. Osborne is finished.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:



    Good grief. You're obsessed by Blairites. No one outside Labour cares. The party is disappearing up its own arse. FWIW it is Kinnock who is the most influential leader on Europe.

    Until it draws on all its talent and stops fighting the last war or the one before that Labour is doomed.

    There's no point having policies if you can't or won't communicate them. That's why Corbyn has to go.


    And you're still not suggesting any actual candidates who would stand a better chance of winning a general election than Corbyn. We can all create fantasy hypothetical candidates about people who are good communicators and have a great intellect, but we have to work with what's actually on offer from the current Labour MPs. Please, go ahead and name one.
    It's the fact you bang on about Blairites and see them as different to other party members that is the problem I am talking about. It's one team. At most two sides of the same coin. Some people want to defeat the so called Blairites -which is defined as anyone they dislike -more than the govt.

    In terms of who would make a better leader than Corbyn, I am tempted to say all of them.
    Margaret Hodge would be fun.
    Thinking out of the box Balls could stand for Jo Cox's seat.
    Otherwise off the top of my head Johnson, Benn. Watson or even Harman would be better.


    I would've happily voted for Hilary Benn a few months ago (and said so on PB at the time), but not after the referendum. Throughout the campaign, he was on TV reeling out the typical "Remain" arguments: how good it was for business, how the economy was doing so well and how stupid it was to risk prosperity, how freedom of movement was a good thing. But traditional Labour voters showed on Thursday what they thought of those arguments: they didn't care about business opinion, they thought the economy was screwed up anyway so why not take a risk, they hated freedom of movement.

    And I come back to the point: if Benn was so tone-deaf to Labour voters that he thought those were politically-effective arguments to make, it surely follows that he would be similarly tone-deaf on all sorts of issues if he became Labour leader.
    If Benn becomes leader, I will resign from the Labour Party.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    RobD said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_P said:

    If the Brexiteers continue to dick around with Article 50, apparently this is the way out for the EU

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/7-article-7.html

    they will just treat the UK as if it quit, and dare HMG of leavers to sue at the ECJ
    No they wont, as the UK government could decide to ignore the referendum.
    I revised the post as I agree, I don't think they will. They will instead just make life hell for the LEAVE government.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Personally, the only credible candidate from the centre is Harriet. The rest are rubbish.
    I take Nick's point- I like Chukka personally, but only because I am a bit taken in by all that glitz. But the centre in the Labour party is without any substance, ideas, or anything really.

    The only successor to Jeremy that the membership would accept is McDonnell- but I forgot about Clive Lewis, a firebrand lefty in Norwich (I know Norwich and firebrand appear mutually incompatible concepts). I've met him a couple of times- he's a Corbynite with a great back story- fought in Afghanistan and went to Sandhurst. But, he has charisma in spades...something that has been notoriously lacking in recent Labour leaders.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Lowlander said:

    AndyJS said:

    OllyT said:

    AndyJS said:

    2.2 million people sign petition calling for another referendum:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    So there are 2.2 million people who object to a full and fair election on which almost 34 million people voted?
    Time wasters!

    I am a remainer but I can see no point in this at all, what are they hoping to achieve. Just looks idiotic
    More than 10,000 have signed in places like Hampstead, Hornsey&Wood Green, Cambridge, Brighton Pavilion, Hackney North, Vauxhall, Islington North.

    Maybe they're just letting off steam, but even so it looks a bit ridiculous.

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215
    So few signatures in Scotland. Tell me that it wasn't a proxy vote for Indy 2. It clearly was.
    Good spot. I was focusing on London so much I didn't notice the lack of signatures in Scotland. Seems like most people there are fine with the result.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    It's a dastardly plan. They want a remainer to win but know that it will cause a problem. So what they need is to get two remainers on the ballot, one of whom is Osborne. The membership will forget about the need to have a leaver on the ballot and happily give the other candidate a landslide.

    Seriously, the idea is ridiculous. Part of the reason Cameron said he stood down was because it would be entirely inappropriate for him, somebody at the heart of the Remain campaign, to be the one negotiating Brexit. Osborne is possibly the only person more unsuitable on those grounds.
    Yeah, at least most people still like and respect Cameron and feel kind of bad that he's had to fall on his sword... Osborne is toxic with everybody... Well not number one fan Scott_P obviously but you know what I mean...
    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Mark my words, in less than 18 months, you'll see polls showing the country wants Dave and George back as PM and Chancellor.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid


    Blimey. I was not expecting that.

    That would be fun. We can have Mr Osborne as the Remain candidate, and whoever gets most MP support from the Leavers as the Leave candidate. Let the party members decide.
    Not happening. Osborne is finished.
    Public humiliation would be the kodak finish.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9



    You lost by just over a million votes, votes you should have had in the bag if you had been able keep those you badgered, insulted and laughed at on board.

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call people names. I accept the result. I dont like the EU. I don't like Farage. I do like Cameron. People don't admit to voting Leave because of immigration. Shocker.
    Sovereignty is really going to motivate the residents of sink estates. And change their lives. Truly.

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I doubt most on here dispute that for the hardcore leavers (especially those on here), who have always been leavers, that this wasn't about immigration but was about Sovereignty. But it is entirely disingenuous of Leavers to refuse to even countenance the idea that immigration was a major factor in this vote and a prime motivation for large numbers of people. The Leave campaign knew that themselves, that's why they campaigned relentlessly on it.

    Sovereignty was the issue for the core. But immigration was what made Leave the winner.
    Immigration is a symptom of the problem. It was a massive weakness for Remain, of course we exploited it.

    Just as Remain tried to scare the shit out of pensioners, the disabled, the middle classes over houses prices.
    House prices are already falling ! It started Friday morning. In 6 months, it might be agood time to buy.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    why do you think the NF were inspired to do it? because the leave victory was secretly about being nice to minorities?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Lowlander said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    1.I like the notion of a scottish PM being the one to say no to a 2nd scottish indy ref.

    A vote for Labour would see Jeremy Corbyn in Nicola's pocket and we'd be ruled by Scots!

    Umm, but Gove is Scottish himself.

    Err, oops.
    Gove is a proud Scot and Briton, Sturgeon is a confused Scottish Nationalist of English descent. I know who I'd trust.
    Indeed but the Tories wouldn't be trying to appeal to North Britons. They will be trying to appeal to Middle England.
    Gove is very middle England - I never noticed he was Scottish until he talked about it.
    But he has a really strong posh provincial Scottish accent!
    I know - I just don't really see this sort of thing as important. Very occasionally I notice an MPs regional accent. I'm a Geordie who speaks RP unless plastered - then I sound more like Jimmy Nail :wink:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration?

    Ummm, most of the 17m...

    Which is why Boris would be in deepest soapy bubble if he signs up for free movement as the PB braintrust are recommending
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    perdix said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    May would be a good choice for the Tories. As Maggie (supposedly) said: "if you want something said, give it to a man. If you want something done, give it to a woman".

    "In politics, if you want anything said, ask a man; if you want anything done, ask a woman."

    - M. H. Thatcher, speech to members of the National Union of Townswomen’s Guilds, delivered at the Royal Albert Hall (May 20, 1965)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    It's a dastardly plan. They want a remainer to win but know that it will cause a problem. So what they need is to get two remainers on the ballot, one of whom is Osborne. The membership will forget about the need to have a leaver on the ballot and happily give the other candidate a landslide.

    Seriously, the idea is ridiculous. Part of the reason Cameron said he stood down was because it would be entirely inappropriate for him, somebody at the heart of the Remain campaign, to be the one negotiating Brexit. Osborne is possibly the only person more unsuitable on those grounds.
    Yeah, at least most people still like and respect Cameron and feel kind of bad that he's had to fall on his sword... Osborne is toxic with everybody... Well not number one fan Scott_P obviously but you know what I mean...
    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Mark my words, in less than 18 months, you'll see polls showing the country wants Dave and George back as PM and Chancellor.
    Put that bottle down. You've had enough.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    He's insane. Bonkers. The result has driven him mad.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    AndyJS said:

    Lowlander said:

    AndyJS said:

    OllyT said:

    AndyJS said:

    2.2 million people sign petition calling for another referendum:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    So there are 2.2 million people who object to a full and fair election on which almost 34 million people voted?
    Time wasters!

    I am a remainer but I can see no point in this at all, what are they hoping to achieve. Just looks idiotic
    More than 10,000 have signed in places like Hampstead, Hornsey&Wood Green, Cambridge, Brighton Pavilion, Hackney North, Vauxhall, Islington North.

    Maybe they're just letting off steam, but even so it looks a bit ridiculous.

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215
    So few signatures in Scotland. Tell me that it wasn't a proxy vote for Indy 2. It clearly was.
    Good spot. I was focusing on London so much I didn't notice the lack of signatures in Scotland. Seems like most people there are fine with the result.
    It's very difficult to think that the 62% Remain in Scotland was a natural result.

    I voted Remain. I would vote No to EU membership on new member terms and probably No to EU membership inheriting the UK terms. I'm pretty sure I would not be alone.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    There will be an upsurge before the door closes. After all, Leavers have said no one will be deported.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    PB bosses are mostly on the LEAVE side waiting for EEA so Europeans can still come in but work >48 hours
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,776
    weejonnie said:

    surbiton said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    I only see the Telegraph and Spectator columnists as being in a jubilant mood for the last couple of days. Those are the Dan Hannans, Fraser Nelsons, Charles Moores and others who have consistently made a positive case for a self-governing UK for years.

    The rest of the print and especially broadcast media is having a massive collective WTF?

    Fraser Nelson is spitting nails that having campaigned with the Spectator to withdraw from EU financial regulations, out EU commissioner for financial regs has quit

    Very funny
    The only unambiguous message since 9am Friday is that the LEAVE campaign in politics and the media do not actually want to leave the European Union. They would quite like someone else to do it so they can keep moaning about other people deciding on their behalf and not handing out the BREXIT free owls.
    It's bizarre. Having moaned about the EU for so long, they can't even write a letter.Nobody is suggesting that the whole package has to be settled in a week. That is why Article 50 provides for 2 years. Are they actually saying they won't invoke Article 50 ?
    LEAVE cannot - only HMG - and Mr Cameron has said he won't do that.
    He also said he wouldn't resign in the event of a Leave vote, and changed his mind in the heat of the moment.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    It's a dastardly plan. They want a remainer to win but know that it will cause a problem. So what they need is to get two remainers on the ballot, one of whom is Osborne. The membership will forget about the need to have a leaver on the ballot and happily give the other candidate a landslide.

    Seriously, the idea is ridiculous. Part of the reason Cameron said he stood down was because it would be entirely inappropriate for him, somebody at the heart of the Remain campaign, to be the one negotiating Brexit. Osborne is possibly the only person more unsuitable on those grounds.
    Yeah, at least most people still like and respect Cameron and feel kind of bad that he's had to fall on his sword... Osborne is toxic with everybody... Well not number one fan Scott_P obviously but you know what I mean...
    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Mark my words, in less than 18 months, you'll see polls showing the country wants Dave and George back as PM and Chancellor.
    TSE- I was going to ask- did you catch the Muse set at Glasto? They were bloody good. Was it the same set they did in Manchester when you went to see them?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Are you mourning the "loss" of Justine this evening?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    PlatoSaid said:

    midwinter said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    here the facts Scott

    you lost.

    you lost because your campaign was total crap.

    You didnt understand where you were starting from
    You offered a renegotiation which insulted voters intelligence
    You insulted and threatened your supporters
    You scare mongered to the point no-one believed you
    You seriously misjudged the mood of the nation and paraded rich celebs and bankers to compain how much money theyd lose on exit
    You hadnt a team and no inkling of how labour voters were thinking

    You lost by just over a million votes, votes you should have had in the bag if you had been able keep those you badgered, insulted and laughed at on board.

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    I really must pick you up on this ugly trope. It really does you no favours.

    The age at which Brexit was more appealing is 41yrs old and when your kids turn 11yrs old. Sovereignty and democracy were the most important reasons for Leavers.

    42% of Brexiteers are ABs.

    If that's so true then why did the polls start to change when Leave focused on immigration and why did they spend the last few weeks of the campaign banging on about virtually nothing else? I can easily understand why pensioners dislike immigration and the way it's changed England in particular. I just dislike the way people are rewriting history to ascribe more noble motives to their voting habits.
    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    That's your problem, not ours.
    So why all the focus on immigration and why did the polls change when it started? Why the lies about (islamic) Turkey and the leaflets showing its proximity to Syria? I don't for one minute suggest all Brexiteers are small minded bigots...theres a lot wrong with the EU...but to deny immigration and pandering to old and ill educated peoples fears and prejudices was the driving force for your win is at best disingenuous and at worst a downright lie. And the fact that the best you can come back with is 'cobblers' isn't helping your case.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    1.I like the notion of a scottish PM being the one to say no to a 2nd scottish indy ref.

    A vote for Labour would see Jeremy Corbyn in Nicola's pocket and we'd be ruled by Scots!

    Umm, but Gove is Scottish himself.

    Err, oops.
    Gove is a proud Scot and Briton, Sturgeon is a confused Scottish Nationalist of English descent. I know who I'd trust.
    Indeed but the Tories wouldn't be trying to appeal to North Britons. They will be trying to appeal to Middle England.
    Gove is very middle England - I never noticed he was Scottish until he talked about it.
    But he has a really strong posh provincial Scottish accent!
    I know - I just don't really see this sort of thing as important. Very occasionally I notice an MPs regional accent. I'm a Geordie who speaks RP unless plastered - then I sound more like Jimmy Nail :wink:
    I had NO idea you were a Geordie when I met you at a PB bash a few years back :)
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    There will be an upsurge before the door closes. After all, Leavers have said no one will be deported.
    Yep, I would expect immigration from the EU to go through the roof in the next 6 months. It's going to be fun to watch.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    Any Leave government will act to reduce immigration. You just have to get over it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    Seriously ?

    The man who blew up 2 budgets (3 if you count the Brexit budget), who destroyed the economic reputation of the Remain camp, is the most unpopular politician in the country and would make Corbyn win the next election in a landslide.
    He thinks he has a chance ?

    No wonder he made a mess as chancellor and missed all his targets.
    With leaders such as these people wonder why Remain lost ?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    alex. said:



    Really? He may have been lukewarm (at best) about the EU but he is more pro-immigration than most of the Europhiles. At least they usually pay lip service to "understanding the concerns" even if never doing anything about it. He spent the campaign actively arguing in favour of unlimited immigration.

    The Blairites and Corbyn are much of a muchness on immigration. However much Blairites might go on about "understanding concerns", they still wanted (and apparently still want) to stay in the EU, hence are in favour of high levels of immigration. That is all that matters to a lot of working-class Labour voters, and I don't think they would be any more willing to vote for a Labour manifesto committed to high immigration just because they threw in some preamble about "we know you're concerned about it, but it's going to carry on anyway".

    Against that, atleast Corbyn has some things about him which are atleast vaguely attractive to working-class Labour voters: economic populism and a general sense that, by voting for him, they can "sock it to the Establishment". The Blairites on the other hand combine the least WWC-friendly aspect of Corbyn (immigration) with the least WWC-friendly aspects of the Remain Campaign (economic status quo telling poor people that they'll never rise above what they've currently got, and a generally Establishment manner and way of speaking).
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    If it brings honesty about sooner, then it might be for the best.

    Someone needs to stand up and say "we need massive amounts of immigration to stay solvent and keep paying pensions, if you want to cut immigration, we need to slash the State Pension or wait till the whole Ponzi scheme collapses in 10 or 20 years".

    I suspect that honesty will not happen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    It's a dastardly plan. They want a remainer to win but know that it will cause a problem. So what they need is to get two remainers on the ballot, one of whom is Osborne. The membership will forget about the need to have a leaver on the ballot and happily give the other candidate a landslide.

    Seriously, the idea is ridiculous. Part of the reason Cameron said he stood down was because it would be entirely inappropriate for him, somebody at the heart of the Remain campaign, to be the one negotiating Brexit. Osborne is possibly the only person more unsuitable on those grounds.
    Yeah, at least most people still like and respect Cameron and feel kind of bad that he's had to fall on his sword... Osborne is toxic with everybody... Well not number one fan Scott_P obviously but you know what I mean...
    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Mark my words, in less than 18 months, you'll see polls showing the country wants Dave and George back as PM and Chancellor.
    TSE- I was going to ask- did you catch the Muse set at Glasto? They were bloody good. Was it the same set they did in Manchester when you went to see them?
    I have it to watch later.

    I was working until 11.30pm on Friday, which meant I had only 2 hours sleep in 42 hours.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    If the Brexiteers continue to dick around with Article 50, apparently this is the way out for the EU

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/7-article-7.html

    Since the UK are not in breach of any of the clauses of Article 2 I doubt that
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    1.I like the notion of a scottish PM being the one to say no to a 2nd scottish indy ref.

    A vote for Labour would see Jeremy Corbyn in Nicola's pocket and we'd be ruled by Scots!

    Umm, but Gove is Scottish himself.

    Err, oops.
    Gove is a proud Scot and Briton, Sturgeon is a confused Scottish Nationalist of English descent. I know who I'd trust.
    Indeed but the Tories wouldn't be trying to appeal to North Britons. They will be trying to appeal to Middle England.
    Gove is very middle England - I never noticed he was Scottish until he talked about it.
    But he has a really strong posh provincial Scottish accent!
    I know - I just don't really see this sort of thing as important. Very occasionally I notice an MPs regional accent. I'm a Geordie who speaks RP unless plastered - then I sound more like Jimmy Nail :wink:
    I had NO idea you were a Geordie when I met you at a PB bash a few years back :)
    The Geordie accent is very attractive IMO.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    That is actually quite sad.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    the whole racism argument is tedious
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Are you mourning the "loss" of Justine this evening?
    Nope.

    Edit: Oops, that sounds not very gallant of me, it wasn't meant to, I love lesbians.

    Inside every straight man there's a lesbian wanting to get out, and outside every lesbian, there's a straight man wanting to get in
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    alex. said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    snip
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I doubt most on here dispute that for the hardcore leavers (especially those on here), who have always been leavers, that this wasn't about immigration but was about Sovereignty. But it is entirely disingenuous of Leavers to refuse to even countenance the idea that immigration was a major factor in this vote and a prime motivation for large numbers of people. The Leave campaign knew that themselves, that's why they campaigned relentlessly on it.

    Sovereignty was the issue for the core. But immigration was what made Leave the winner.
    I have no doubt immigration was the prime factor for a sizeable slice of leavers 17% IIRC put it as their number one issue. However this droning on that it was the only issue for Leavers is wrong. It is precisely because remainers wanted to believe their own propaganda that they didnt understand the other issues on which they should have made their pitch.
    Precisely. Farage Farage Farage blah blah blah - erm, nope.

    "Take back control" was a genius core message for Leave - it summed up a load of issues, and allowed whatever bothered a voter most to latch onto it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    OllyT said:

    AndyJS said:

    2.2 million people sign petition calling for another referendum:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    So there are 2.2 million people who object to a full and fair election on which almost 34 million people voted?
    Time wasters!

    I am a remainer but I can see no point in this at all, what are they hoping to achieve. Just looks idiotic
    More than 10,000 have signed in places like Hampstead, Hornsey&Wood Green, Cambridge, Brighton Pavilion, Hackney North, Vauxhall, Islington North.

    Maybe they're just letting off steam, but even so it looks a bit ridiculous.

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215
    If only they'd actually voted...
    All those places voted over 60% Remain nationally 52% voted Leave on a 72% turnout, they lost, get over it
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    1.I like the notion of a scottish PM being the one to say no to a 2nd scottish indy ref.

    A vote for Labour would see Jeremy Corbyn in Nicola's pocket and we'd be ruled by Scots!

    Umm, but Gove is Scottish himself.

    Err, oops.
    Gove is a proud Scot and Briton, Sturgeon is a confused Scottish Nationalist of English descent. I know who I'd trust.
    Indeed but the Tories wouldn't be trying to appeal to North Britons. They will be trying to appeal to Middle England.
    Gove is very middle England - I never noticed he was Scottish until he talked about it.
    But he has a really strong posh provincial Scottish accent!
    I know - I just don't really see this sort of thing as important. Very occasionally I notice an MPs regional accent. I'm a Geordie who speaks RP unless plastered - then I sound more like Jimmy Nail :wink:
    Gove speaks with a natural accent, I doubt he's worked on it at all. Liam Fox, however, clearly has toned his accent down.

    The worst offender was Norrie Lam'nt who not only worked on his accept but changed the pronunciation of his name to "La-monte".
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    1.I like the notion of a scottish PM being the one to say no to a 2nd scottish indy ref.

    A vote for Labour would see Jeremy Corbyn in Nicola's pocket and we'd be ruled by Scots!

    Umm, but Gove is Scottish himself.

    Err, oops.
    Gove is a proud Scot and Briton, Sturgeon is a confused Scottish Nationalist of English descent. I know who I'd trust.
    Indeed but the Tories wouldn't be trying to appeal to North Britons. They will be trying to appeal to Middle England.
    Gove is very middle England - I never noticed he was Scottish until he talked about it.
    But he has a really strong posh provincial Scottish accent!
    I know - I just don't really see this sort of thing as important. Very occasionally I notice an MPs regional accent. I'm a Geordie who speaks RP unless plastered - then I sound more like Jimmy Nail :wink:
    Ashamed of your background ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940

    Scott_P said:

    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Are you mourning the "loss" of Justine this evening?
    Nope.
    How are you bearing up otherwise ?

    Politcally a tough 48 hrs for you.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    the whole racism argument is tedious
    Indeed, it is irrelevant to the ongoing political process how the nasty racists voted, if they voted.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration?

    Ummm, most of the 17m...

    Which is why Boris would be in deepest soapy bubble if he signs up for free movement as the PB braintrust are recommending
    There's 48% of people who didn't want prioritise immigration and maybe a third of the rest. It's doable; Gove, Johnson and Hannan in support. There will be action to reduce it - 200,000 is achieveable - whilst not pissing off the Germans.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PlatoSaid said:

    "Take back control" was a genius core message for Leave - it summed up a load of issues, and allowed whatever bothered a voter most to latch onto it.

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    I suspect most of the nasty racists voted leave (certainly those who see it as a badge of honour). But let's not pretend there would have been no bigots amongst Remainers. We all find ourselves in political coalitions with people we don't like. What I do think is that some of the stuff that some of the Leave people have come out with was incendiary.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    EPG said:

    Michael Ashcroft was the man most responsible for creating a false impression of the GE 2015 result. People kept misleading him about their impressions of politics and what they would do in a vote, and he kept publishing it. Yet he keeps going back and asking the same types of people the same types of questions.

    This was a post vote poll - ignore it if that makes you feel better. That strikes me as a daft approach myself, but each to his own.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    "I don't think there will be a woman Prime Minister in my lifetime."
    - M. H. Thatcher, BBC Television (5 March, 1973)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    here the facts Scott

    you lost.

    you lost because your campaign was total crap.

    You didnt understand where you were starting from
    You offered a renegotiation which insulted voters intelligence
    You insulted and threatened your supporters
    You scare mongered to the point no-one believed you
    You seriously misjudged the mood of the nation and paraded rich celebs and bankers to compain how much money theyd lose on exit
    You hadnt a team and no inkling of how labour voters were thinking

    You lost by just over a million votes, votes you should have had in the bag if you had been able keep those you badgered, insulted and laughed at on board.

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call people names. I accept the result. I dont like the EU. I don't like Farage. I do like Cameron. People don't admit to voting Leave because of immigration. Shocker.
    Sovereignty is really going to motivate the residents of sink estates. And change their lives. Truly.

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I doubt most on here dispute that for the hardcore leavers (especially those on here), who have always been leavers, that this wasn't about immigration but was about Sovereignty.

    Sovereignty was the issue for the core. But immigration was what made Leave the winner.
    Immigration is a symptom of the problem. It was a massive weakness for Remain, of course we exploited it.

    Just as Remain tried to scare the shit out of pensioners, the disabled, the middle classes over houses prices.
    What I find weird is reading Left-wing Remainers ranting and raving over the risk of falls in the FTSE or the pound, or their properties. It's like reading the last page of Animal Farm.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    Any Leave government will act to reduce immigration. You just have to get over it.
    How? We'll be keeping freedom of movement almost entirely intact.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784



    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    The irony is that Corbyn's long standing scepticism towards the EU is a lot closer to the scepticism of the WWC notwithstanding his defence of open EU borders, by comparison to the Europhiles seeking to overthrow him. Personally I don't think that Labour has a hope in 2020 (or earlier) with Corbyn as leader, but neither will the party have a prayer if it deepens the already gaping disconnect with swathes of WWC voters by ignoring the message on the EU so clearly sent on Thursday, especially if that "wrong" result is used as the pretext to depose Corbyn.

    Unfortunately Labour's selection process for a new leader stands in the way of any managed transition. I think Labour would stand a much better chance with McDonnell - Plato is right to fear him from the other side of the political divide. But the chances of Corbyn standing down are zero so long as a 15% threshold of MPs is needed to get on the ballot paper.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    snip
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I doubt most on here dispute that for the hardcore leavers (especially those on here), who have always been leavers, that this wasn't about immigration but was about Sovereignty. But it is entirely disingenuous of Leavers to refuse to even countenance the idea that immigration was a major factor in this vote and a prime motivation for large numbers of people. The Leave campaign knew that themselves, that's why they campaigned relentlessly on it.

    Sovereignty was the issue for the core. But immigration was what made Leave the winner.
    I have no doubt immigration was the prime factor for a sizeable slice of leavers 17% IIRC put it as their number one issue. However this droning on that it was the only issue for Leavers is wrong. It is precisely because remainers wanted to believe their own propaganda that they didnt understand the other issues on which they should have made their pitch.
    Precisely. Farage Farage Farage blah blah blah - erm, nope.

    "Take back control" was a genius core message for Leave - it summed up a load of issues, and allowed whatever bothered a voter most to latch onto it.
    So you are saying take back control can, probably does, mean cut immigration, given the known priorities of UK voters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Welcome back TSE :)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    All this talk of a second Referendum is nonsense - it should be "best out of 3"!!!

    I always used that when I lost at something!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    Any Leave government will act to reduce immigration. You just have to get over it.
    Yes.

    There are various degrees of reduction:

    1. Immigrants cannot claim benefits
    2. Immigrants need to pay an annual charge (NHS health insurance, perhaps?)
    3. Immigrants need to have a written job offer before they enter the UK and get an NI number
    4. Immigrants need to adhere to a series of quotas
    5. Immigrants need pass some kind of points based system

    Each of these will have an effect on immigration, even the most modest of changes.

    It's also likely that - even without these - that net EU migration will slow significantly in coming months as financial firms, and others, repatriate staff.

    If the UK economy wanders into recession - a likely consequence of prolonged negotiations - that will also reduce immigration.

    Finally, I would expect that building work around London is likely to be sharply reduced. In the near term, that will be reflected in lower wages for everyone involved. Longer term, it will result in Polish/Slovakian/etc. builders going back home.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,776
    murali_s said:

    I'll buy someone a pint if they could repost that graphic showing Reman / Leave percentage by party affiliation. Someone must have it!

    There's this. It's only a bar chart (scroll down).

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-7-graphs-that-explain-how-brexit-won-eu-explained-a7101676.html
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:



    Good grief. You're obsessed by Blairites. No one outside Labour cares. The party is disappearing up its own arse. FWIW it is Kinnock who is the most influential leader on Europe.

    Until it draws on all its talent and stops fighting the last war or the one before that Labour is doomed.

    There's no point having policies if you can't or won't communicate them. That's why Corbyn has to go.


    And you're still not suggesting any actual candidates who would stand a better chance of winning a general election than Corbyn. We can all create fantasy hypothetical candidates about people who are good communicators and have a great intellect, but we have to work with what's actually on offer from the current Labour MPs. Please, go ahead and name one.
    It's the fact you bang on about Blairites and see them as different to other party members that is the problem I am talking about. It's one team. At most two sides of the same coin. Some people want to defeat the so called Blairites -which is defined as anyone they dislike -more than the govt.

    In terms of who would make a better leader than Corbyn, I am tempted to say all of them.
    Margaret Hodge would be fun.
    Thinking out of the box Balls could stand for Jo Cox's seat.
    Otherwise off the top of my head Johnson, Benn. Watson or even Harman would be better.







    I would've happily voted for Hilary Benn a few months ago (and said so on PB at the time), but not after the referendum. Throughout the campaign, he was on TV reeling out the typical "Remain" arguments: how good it was for business, how the economy was doing so well and how stupid it was to risk prosperity, how freedom of movement was a good thing. But traditional Labour voters showed on Thursday what they thought of those arguments: they didn't care about business opinion, they thought the economy was screwed up anyway so why not take a risk, they hated freedom of movement.

    And I come back to the point: if Benn was so tone-deaf to Labour voters that he thought those were politically-effective arguments to make, it surely follows that he would be similarly tone-deaf on all sorts of issues if he became Labour leader.
    Why did you think that I ended up supporting Corbyn, and wanting to throw Benn out ?

    I detest how out of touch most of the Labour PLP is, that's why I support Corbyn, in order to kick their buts.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tyson said:

    surbiton said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Personally, the only credible candidate from the centre is Harriet. The rest are rubbish.
    I take Nick's point- I like Chukka personally, but only because I am a bit taken in by all that glitz. But the centre in the Labour party is without any substance, ideas, or anything really.

    The only successor to Jeremy that the membership would accept is McDonnell- but I forgot about Clive Lewis, a firebrand lefty in Norwich (I know Norwich and firebrand appear mutually incompatible concepts). I've met him a couple of times- he's a Corbynite with a great back story- fought in Afghanistan and went to Sandhurst. But, he has charisma in spades...something that has been notoriously lacking in recent Labour leaders.
    So, we could have two ex-soldiers contesting ?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Do you not think the Guardianish vote is the most secure part of the Labour vote right now, though? Admittedly I might be doing my own version of Mandelson's complacent "they have nowhere else to go" thing, but I have to admit it's my impression that a lot of metro Labour voters from Hackney and Islington would stick with the party no matter what.

    By contrast, the "traditional" Labour voters of the Tynesides of the world are much more disconnected from the party, I think.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration?

    Ummm, most of the 17m...

    Which is why Boris would be in deepest soapy bubble if he signs up for free movement as the PB braintrust are recommending
    There's 48% of people who didn't want prioritise immigration and maybe a third of the rest. It's doable; Gove, Johnson and Hannan in support.
    I've said before but this is playing with fire. Nick Clegg p***** off a few students. That will be nothing compared to the sh** storm coming these guys' way.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    PlatoSaid said:

    EPG said:

    Michael Ashcroft was the man most responsible for creating a false impression of the GE 2015 result. People kept misleading him about their impressions of politics and what they would do in a vote, and he kept publishing it. Yet he keeps going back and asking the same types of people the same types of questions.

    This was a post vote poll - ignore it if that makes you feel better. That strikes me as a daft approach myself, but each to his own.
    People kept telling him things that weren't true.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    EPG said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    snip
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I doubt most on here dispute that for the hardcore leavers (especially those on here), who have always been leavers, that this wasn't about immigration but was about Sovereignty. But it is entirely disingenuous of Leavers to refuse to even countenance the idea that immigration was a major factor in this vote and a prime motivation for large numbers of people. The Leave campaign knew that themselves, that's why they campaigned relentlessly on it.

    Sovereignty was the issue for the core. But immigration was what made Leave the winner.
    I have no doubt immigration was the prime factor for a sizeable slice of leavers 17% IIRC put it as their number one issue. However this droning on that it was the only issue for Leavers is wrong. It is precisely because remainers wanted to believe their own propaganda that they didnt understand the other issues on which they should have made their pitch.
    Precisely. Farage Farage Farage blah blah blah - erm, nope.

    "Take back control" was a genius core message for Leave - it summed up a load of issues, and allowed whatever bothered a voter most to latch onto it.
    So you are saying take back control can, probably does, mean cut immigration, given the known priorities of UK voters.
    why wouldnt it ? throughout the campiagn Leave has said it wants immigration controls.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    There will be an upsurge before the door closes. After all, Leavers have said no one will be deported.
    Yep, I would expect immigration from the EU to go through the roof in the next 6 months. It's going to be fun to watch.
    The opposite is likely. People come here because they can get a job. If more immigrants arrive that there are jobs, then they will likely go home. Being in an expensive foreign city with no money and no job is no fun.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    here the facts Scott

    you lost.

    you lost because your campaign was total crap.

    You didnt understand where you were starting from
    You offered a renegotiation which insulted voters intelligence
    You insulted and threatened your supporters
    You scare mongered to the point no-one believed you
    You seriously misjudged the mood of the nation and paraded rich celebs and bankers to compain how much money theyd lose on exit
    You hadnt a team and no inkling of how labour voters were thinking

    You lost by just over a million votes, votes you should have had in the bag if you had been able keep those you badgered, insulted and laughed at on board.

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call people names. I accept the result. I dont like the EU. I don't like Farage. I do like Cameron. People don't admit to voting Leave because of immigration. Shocker.
    Sovereignty is really going to motivate the residents of sink estates. And change their lives. Truly.

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I'm not suggesting that YOU voted based on immigration. What I am saying is that in areas with a high OAP population it was the prime reason for voting Leave. I live and work on the Sussex coast which does have a large elderly population and has in the last 10 years seen a lot of Eastern European migration and it was a huge factor in driving votes to Leave not just from OAPs but also from local tradespeople.
    Boston, Stoke Wolverhampton had some of the highest leave % votes and theyre not stuffed with OAPs.
    If you're seriously suggesting that the high leave vote in Boston had nothing to do with immigration I would suggest it's time for your tablet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    @TSE

    "You lost today, kid. But it doesn't mean you have to like it!"

    [Sunil hands TSE his fedora]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28sQaaMDpZU
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    Danny565 said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Do you not think the Guardianish vote is the most secure part of the Labour vote right now, though? Admittedly I might be doing my own version of Mandelson's complacent "they have nowhere else to go" thing, but I have to admit it's my impression that a lot of metro Labour voters from Hackney and Islington would stick with the party no matter what.

    By contrast, the "traditional" Labour voters of the Tynesides of the world are much more disconnected from the party, I think.
    If the Labour offer is we'll tax you more + we want less foreigners then, yeah, they have somewhere else to go
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    the whole racism argument is tedious
    It's not going to go away. I wish Brexit had never played the race card for advantage- they were the one's who unleashed the genie.

    The whole immigration debate should be managed by cross party politics and not politicised. It is just too dangerous.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    here the facts Scott

    you lost.

    you lost because your campaign was total crap.

    You didnt understand where you were starting from
    You offered a renegotiation which insulted voters intelligence
    You insulted and threatened your supporters
    You scare mongered to the point no-one believed you
    You seriously misjudged the mood of the nation and paraded rich celebs and bankers to compain how much money theyd lose on exit
    You hadnt a team and no inkling of how labour voters were thinking

    You lost by just over a million votes, votes you should have had in the bag if you had been able keep those you badgered, insulted and laughed at on board.

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call people names. I accept the result. I dont like the EU. I don't like Farage. I do like Cameron. People don't admit to voting Leave because of immigration. Shocker.
    Sovereignty is really going to motivate the residents of sink estates. And change their lives. Truly.

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I doubt most on here dispute that for the hardcore leavers (especially those on here), who have always been leavers, that this wasn't about immigration but was about Sovereignty.

    Sovereignty was the issue for the core. But immigration was what made Leave the winner.
    Immigration is a symptom of the problem. It was a massive weakness for Remain, of course we exploited it.

    Just as Remain tried to scare the shit out of pensioners, the disabled, the middle classes over houses prices.
    What I find weird is reading Left-wing Remainers ranting and raving over the risk of falls in the FTSE or the pound, or their properties. It's like reading the last page of Animal Farm.
    LOL
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Corbyn and McDonnell need to be defeated in a general election before the party is ready to elect a centrist again, so agreed
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,052

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    here the facts Scott

    you lost.

    you lost because your campaign was total crap.

    You didnt understand where you were starting from
    You offered a renegotiation which insulted voters intelligence
    You insulted and threatened your supporters
    You scare mongered to the point no-one believed you
    You seriously misjudged the mood of the nation and paraded rich celebs and bankers to compain how much money theyd lose on exit
    You hadnt a team and no inkling of how labour voters were thinking

    You lost by just over a million votes, votes you should have had in the bag if you had been able keep those you badgered, insulted and laughed at on board.

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call people names. I accept the result. I dont like the EU. I don't like Farage. I do like Cameron. People don't admit to voting Leave because of immigration. Shocker.
    Sovereignty is really going to motivate the residents of sink estates. And change their lives. Truly.

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I accept it wasn't your motivation or the motivation of many Leavers, but it was mentioned time and time again when people were being interviewed on TV. It was certainly the main motivation for sufficient numbers of voters to make the difference between Leave winning and losing.

    Leave didn't go so heavily on the immigration issue for the last 2 weeks for nought. They were failing until they went all out for that demographic. It was definitely what got them over the line and I don't honestly see how you can argue otherwise.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    AnneJGP said:

    murali_s said:

    I'll buy someone a pint if they could repost that graphic showing Reman / Leave percentage by party affiliation. Someone must have it!

    There's this. It's only a bar chart (scroll down).

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-7-graphs-that-explain-how-brexit-won-eu-explained-a7101676.html
    Thanks Anne
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    the whole racism argument is tedious
    It's not going to go away. I wish Brexit had never played the race card for advantage- they were the one's who unleashed the genie.

    The whole immigration debate should be managed by cross party politics and not politicised. It is just too dangerous.
    The trouble is that the Labour side is led by someone who, as far as one can tell, can see no limit as reasonable. That makes for a difficult compromise.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Do you not think the Guardianish vote is the most secure part of the Labour vote right now, though? Admittedly I might be doing my own version of Mandelson's complacent "they have nowhere else to go" thing, but I have to admit it's my impression that a lot of metro Labour voters from Hackney and Islington would stick with the party no matter what.

    By contrast, the "traditional" Labour voters of the Tynesides of the world are much more disconnected from the party, I think.
    You are right.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:



    Good grief. You're obsessed by Blairites. No one outside Labour cares. The party is disappearing up its own arse. FWIW it is Kinnock who is the most influential leader on Europe.

    Until it draws on all its talent and stops fighting the last war or the one before that Labour is doomed.

    There's no point having policies if you can't or won't communicate them. That's why Corbyn has to go.

    snip

    And you're still not suggesting any actual candidates who would stand a better chance of winning a general election than Corbyn. We can all create fantasy hypothetical candidates about people who are good communicators and have a great intellect, but we have to work with what's actually on offer from the current Labour MPs. Please, go ahead and name one.
    It's the fact you bang on about Blairites and see them as different to other party members that is the problem I am talking about. It's one team. At most two sides of the same coin. Some people want to defeat the so called Blairites -which is defined as anyone they dislike -more than the govt.

    In terms of who would make a better leader than Corbyn, I am tempted to say all of them.
    Margaret Hodge would be fun.
    Thinking out of the box Balls could stand for Jo Cox's seat.
    Otherwise off the top of my head Johnson, Benn. Watson or even Harman would be better.

    I would've happily voted for Hilary Benn a few months ago (and said so on PB at the time), but not after the referendum. Throughout the campaign, he was on TV reeling out the typical "Remain" arguments: how good it was for business, how the economy was doing so well and how stupid it was to risk prosperity, how freedom of movement was a good thing. But traditional Labour voters showed on Thursday what they thought of those arguments: they didn't care about business opinion, they thought the economy was screwed up anyway so why not take a risk, they hated freedom of movement.

    And I come back to the point: if Benn was so tone-deaf to Labour voters that he thought those were politically-effective arguments to make, it surely follows that he would be similarly tone-deaf on all sorts of issues if he became Labour leader.
    I watched Benn again today and his line of argument sounded like a no-name Remain Tory, not at all the son of Wedgie.

    It was most peculiar viewing. He delivered that great HoC speech and then reverted to type as a nobody.

    What's happened to him - or was that speech just a one off? Like Diane Abbott over 90 Days Detention?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    here the facts Scott

    you lost.

    you lost because your campaign was total crap.

    You didnt understand where you were starting from
    You offered a renegotiation which insulted voters intelligence
    You insulted and threatened your supporters
    You scare mongered to the point no-one believed you
    You seriously misjudged the mood of the nation and paraded rich celebs and bankers to compain how much money theyd lose on exit
    You hadnt a team and no inkling of how labour voters were thinking

    You lost by just over a million votes, votes you should have had in the bag if you had been able keep those you badgered, insulted and laughed at on board.

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call people names. I accept the result. I dont like the EU. I don't like Farage. I do like Cameron. People don't admit to voting Leave because of immigration. Shocker.
    Sovereignty is really going to motivate the residents of sink estates. And change their lives. Truly.

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I'm not suggesting that YOU voted eople.
    Boston, Stoke Wolverhampton had some of the highest leave % votes and theyre not stuffed with OAPs.
    If you're seriously suggesting that the high leave vote in Boston had nothing to do with immigration I would suggest it's time for your tablet.
    It had everything to do with immigration in Boston, but it questions your premise that age drives views to immigration. Lots of things do.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    There will be an upsurge before the door closes. After all, Leavers have said no one will be deported.
    Yep, I would expect immigration from the EU to go through the roof in the next 6 months. It's going to be fun to watch.
    The opposite is likely. People come here because they can get a job. If more immigrants arrive that there are jobs, then they will likely go home. Being in an expensive foreign city with no money and no job is no fun.
    Of course London is 5% cheaper today than Thursday.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    OllyT said:

    I accept it wasn't your motivation or the motivation of many Leavers, but it was mentioned time and time again when people were being interviewed on TV. It was certainly the main motivation for sufficient numbers of voters to make the difference between Leave winning and losing.

    Leave didn't go so heavily on the immigration issue for the last 2 weeks for nought. They were failing until they went all out for that demographic. It was definitely what got them over the line and I don't honestly see how you can argue otherwise.

    "I didn't vote for the explicitly anti-immigration campaign because of immigration" is the Brexiteers "but I didn't inhale"...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well, that's going to be a lot of angry Leave voters when Boris fails to deliver any reduction in immigration (and quite possibly an increase)
    There will be an upsurge before the door closes. After all, Leavers have said no one will be deported.
    Yep, I would expect immigration from the EU to go through the roof in the next 6 months. It's going to be fun to watch.
    Surely not?! We're international pariahs. Who would want to come to such a horrible country?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration?

    Ummm, most of the 17m...

    Which is why Boris would be in deepest soapy bubble if he signs up for free movement as the PB braintrust are recommending
    There's 48% of people who didn't want prioritise immigration and maybe a third of the rest. It's doable; Gove, Johnson and Hannan in support. There will be action to reduce it - 200,000 is achieveable - whilst not pissing off the Germans.
    I'll support it, but only in exchange for the EU to guarantee the territorial integrity of the UK (aka banning splinters from forever entering the EU).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    It's true but it doesn't mean anything, in the same way that the fact that most English racists probably support the English football team doesn't mean anything.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,362

    Since the UK are not in breach of any of the clauses of Article 2 I doubt that

    To which court would you make that complaint? And what form would that complaint take?

    "They're trying to make us LEAVE!"
    "But you do want to LEAVE!"
    "Yes, but..."

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    Not really, no.

    One only has to read Giles Coren, Alex Massie or Matthew Parris to realise there are some nasty bigots on either side.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    We can certainly agree that all sides in politics attract undesirables, yes. Doesn't mean that 17 million who voted Leave agree with the NF or BNP though.
  • edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    This confirms my take on Cameron's resignation. Cameron's resignation is not principled but a manoeuvre to attempt to get a party leader in his own mould. It would be tragic and quite wrong if the process of starting to release ourselves from the Brussels tentacles becomes hostage to the internal machinations of the Conservative party but that seems likely.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    EPG said:

    Danny565 said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Do you not think the Guardianish vote is the most secure part of the Labour vote right now, though? Admittedly I might be doing my own version of Mandelson's complacent "they have nowhere else to go" thing, but I have to admit it's my impression that a lot of metro Labour voters from Hackney and Islington would stick with the party no matter what.

    By contrast, the "traditional" Labour voters of the Tynesides of the world are much more disconnected from the party, I think.
    If the Labour offer is we'll tax you more + we want less foreigners then, yeah, they have somewhere else to go
    I would argue that "we'll tax you more" is much more sellable to the public than "we want more foreigners".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    viewcode said:

    To which court would you make that complaint? And what form would that complaint take?

    "They're trying to make us LEAVE!"
    "But you do want to LEAVE!"
    "Yes, but..."

    They could sell tickets for that
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration?

    Ummm, most of the 17m...

    Which is why Boris would be in deepest soapy bubble if he signs up for free movement as the PB braintrust are recommending
    There's 48% of people who didn't want prioritise immigration and maybe a third of the rest. It's doable; Gove, Johnson and Hannan in support. There will be action to reduce it - 200,000 is achieveable - whilst not pissing off the Germans.
    I'll support it, but only in exchange for the EU to guarantee the territorial integrity of the UK (aka banning splinters from forever entering the EU).
    Ireland is a splinter from the UK
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    I cannot find what governs disputes between EU members as to the interpretation of the Lisbon Treaty.

    I found Article 344 which states that:

    "Member States undertake not to submit a dispute concerning the interpretation or application of the Treaties to any method of settlement other than those provided for therein"

    but I cannot find the 'those provided for therein'. Anyone able to point me to the correct articles, if any?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    EPG said:

    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration?

    Ummm, most of the 17m...

    Which is why Boris would be in deepest soapy bubble if he signs up for free movement as the PB braintrust are recommending
    There's 48% of people who didn't want prioritise immigration and maybe a third of the rest. It's doable; Gove, Johnson and Hannan in support. There will be action to reduce it - 200,000 is achieveable - whilst not pissing off the Germans.
    I'll support it, but only in exchange for the EU to guarantee the territorial integrity of the UK (aka banning splinters from forever entering the EU).
    Ireland is a splinter from the UK
    Obviously it wouldn't be retroactive :p
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    Who gives a toss if most of the 17m wanted to reduce immigration? There's nothing unreasonable about such a desire. In fact, it's clear that most of our people do wish to reduce immigration. So, let's do it, even if some PBers get upset that their workers become less biddable when there are fewer Eastern Europeans snapping at their heels.

    Well said. If it's the will of people - it's the will of the people. I don't care where someone comes from provided they substantially add to our national wealth and behave like Britons. Just like Romans in Rome.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022

    Scott_P said:

    Oi, Scott isn't Osborne's number one fan, well not whilst I'm about.

    Are you mourning the "loss" of Justine this evening?
    Nope.
    How are you bearing up otherwise ?

    Politcally a tough 48 hrs for you.
    Been a tough 48 hrs politically and professionally.

    Oddly, I'm more upset at Dave going than the result of the referendum.

    I had known since just before 8am that Cameron was going, and when Cameron's voice quivered on Friday morning I just lost it internally, I swore lots too, which really isn't me.

    What really cheered me up was the Vote Leave press conference, the looks on the faces of Boris and Gove just spoke 'Oh shit, we only did this to make a point, what the feck are we going to do now we've won, WE WEREN'T MEANT TO WIN'

    Someone said Gove had the look of a bloke who found out he had taken drugs and killed his best mate during the trip

    I'm voting Boris for leader, he's got Brexit, he's going to have to deliver on it, which is going to be fun.

    I suspect Cameron is going to be the heir to Blair in the sense he's going to be chuckling on the inside on the performance of his successor.

    The worst thing about the last 48 hours is the smugness of the French, they might have a reason to be smug about us for the first time since The Battle of Bouvines.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited June 2016
    Danny565 said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Do you not think the Guardianish vote is the most secure part of the Labour vote right now, though? Admittedly I might be doing my own version of Mandelson's complacent "they have nowhere else to go" thing, but I have to admit it's my impression that a lot of metro Labour voters from Hackney and Islington would stick with the party no matter what.

    By contrast, the "traditional" Labour voters of the Tynesides of the world are much more disconnected from the party, I think.
    In my view if Labour win again it will be Guardianistas, combined with Blairites who defected to Cameron and ethnic minorities who do it for them ideally under a charismatic centrist. Corbyn and McDonnell have to lose a general election first though. The wwc who voted for Leave in 2016 and UKIP in 2015 are lost for good
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    O/T:

    Can someone please sack the people in charge of TV replays at Euro 2016. They keep showing replays while important action is taking place.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,740
    Danny565 said:

    EPG said:

    Danny565 said:

    I think it's hard to see past May vs Boris. May is the obvious establishment candidate and her soft-pedalled referendum involvement was clearly intended to avoid ruling herself out. She's the Tory pre-refugee crisis Merkel - a safe paid of hands. and there just has to be a pro-Leave candidate, and can it really be denied to Boris?

    As for Labour, there is clearly a big push from the centre-right of the party next week. But all the talk about reconnecting with the WWC, while valid as far as it goes, overlooks the need to STAY connected to the rest of the Labour vote, which is now predominantly left-wing Guardianish. If Corbyn is overthrown by a centrist, half the party will walk out and a huge swathe of the current 30% who support Labour will refuse to back the party. If Corbyn resigned voluntarily and McDonnell (or perhaps, as Tyson suggests, Clive Lewis) took over, I can see it having a chance, but otherwise it's just lemming stuff.

    Do you not think the Guardianish vote is the most secure part of the Labour vote right now, though? Admittedly I might be doing my own version of Mandelson's complacent "they have nowhere else to go" thing, but I have to admit it's my impression that a lot of metro Labour voters from Hackney and Islington would stick with the party no matter what.

    By contrast, the "traditional" Labour voters of the Tynesides of the world are much more disconnected from the party, I think.
    If the Labour offer is we'll tax you more + we want less foreigners then, yeah, they have somewhere else to go
    I would argue that "we'll tax you more" is much more sellable to the public than "we want more foreigners".
    Not sure how that is relevant. If you go nasty the comfortable idealists have several partylets to go to.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cobblers. You want Brexiteers to be small-minded, stupid, ignorant, racist bigots - the evidence doesn't fit your desires.

    Right

    ttp://twitter.com/DWxLW/status/746684492073558017/photo/1
    As was pointed out in the last thread, that's the NF who have been peddling their particular viewpoint for years now. Trying to tie the whole Leave campaign and their 17 million voters to those views didn't work when Cameron tried it and certainly won't work now.
    This is turning into a tedious argument everywhere I look, can we all agree with the following

    Not everyone who voted Leave is a nasty racist but all the nasty racists are voted Leave.
    We can certainly agree that all sides in politics attract undesirables, yes. Doesn't mean that 17 million who voted Leave agree with the NF or BNP though.
    Especially not the ethnic minority Brexit voters (see Newham)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: Boris Johnson to launch leadership bid within days as potentially bloody battle begins to replace David Cameron https://t.co/Yo1QJpMUWl
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940
    OllyT said:

    midwinter said:

    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    here the facts Scott

    you lost.

    you lost because your campaign was total crap.
    .

    So if youre feeling sore look in the mirror
    It's far, far simpler. They lost because immigration upsets old people. And because people with nothing and nothing to lose in the North and Midlands got off theiir arses to vote.
    the post match analysis should sovereignty was the biggest motivational factor for Leave voters not immigration.

    maybe if youd spent more time understanding that than name calling people you didnt relate with you'd have won.
    I didn't call people names. I accept the result. I dont like the EU. I don't like Farage. I do like Cameron. People don't admit to voting Leave because of immigration. Shocker.
    Sovereignty is really going to motivate the residents of sink estates. And change their lives. Truly.

    No need to be rude.
    I'll stop being rude if you stop being daft.

    Immigration wasnt the prime motivation for most Leavers. For me it was a secondary issue. The first one was holding our politicians to account.
    I accept it wasn't your motivation or the motivation of many Leavers, but it was mentioned time and time again when people were being interviewed on TV. It was certainly the main motivation for sufficient numbers of voters to make the difference between Leave winning and losing.

    Leave didn't go so heavily on the immigration issue for the last 2 weeks for nought. They were failing until they went all out for that demographic. It was definitely what got them over the line and I don't honestly see how you can argue otherwise.
    Remain certainly used immigration to GOTV and it won them supportbut the Remainers premise that it was the only factor is just not true and going back to where this all started if you hadnt got so mesemerised on your bete nore youd have appealed more widely and voters over on their other issues.

    Remain banged on about immigration as much as Leave did. You should have stuck to the economy and given some positive reasons on why in was better.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314

    Scott_P said:

    Popcorm

    @IsabelOakeshott: In the last hour I've spoken to 2 Tory MPs both of whom told me Osborne has someone ringing round canvassing support for a leadership bid

    This confirms my take on Cameron's resignation. Cameron's resignation is not principled but a manoeuvre to attempt to get a party leader in his own mould. It would be tragic and quite wrong if the process of starting to release ourselves from the Brussels tentacles becomes hostage to the internal machinations of the Conservative party but that seems likely.
    Becomes? The process to leave the EU is entirely the product of the 'internal machinations of the Conservative party'.
This discussion has been closed.