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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bunco makes the case for Liz Truss as next CON leader and P

SystemSystem Posts: 12,558
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bunco makes the case for Liz Truss as next CON leader and PM

A couple of months ago I promised OGH that I’d write a piece on why I thought Liz Truss would be the next Prime Minister. With other things to do and three years to 2019, I put it on the back burner but events mean I need to nail my colours to the mast.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    no. it has to be an outer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Truss lacks support
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Put this one in the Huntsman circular file.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Nope, sorry @bunnco
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Oh god no.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Jonathan said:

    Truss lacks support

    Badum-tish.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,570
    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2016
    From last thread.

    Thanks Dr Fox.

    Perhaps we'll consult over a dram or several one day. After all I do seem to have met most of the rest of the British medical profession and their assorted kit in recent years. :smile:
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited June 2016
    Pork Markets.
    British Cheese.

    Social media would have a field day.
    Opponents would have a field day.
    Panel Shows would have a field day.
  • SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    Oh, no. Opponents will show her jubilant comment about exporting pork to stunned silent audience and it will be as embarrassing as the John Redwood clip of him miming to the Welsh anthem,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    Using what power?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Are there any new opinion polls due soon?

    My guess is, if they do any new EU Referendum polls, there'll be an even healthier lead for Leave, with people saying "it's been done now and I want to feel excited about the possibilities" outweighing the people who said "what have we done".
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    nunu said:

    no. it has to be an outer.

    True. Backing Remain is a deal-breaker.

    Top Leave candidates: Johnson, Leadsom, Gove, Leadsom, Patel, Leadsom, Villiers?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Lowlander said:

    Pork Markets.
    British Cheese.

    Social media would have a field day.
    Opponents would have a field day.
    Panel Shows would have a field day.

    Thanks :( I had almost expunged those from my memory.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Well, I do not normally comment, but....
    I am very disappointed by the result,my children are "Gutted".
    My Son is a Civil Engineer with a major construction Co, and there were many projects and tenders on hold, now on a very long hold. Recession beckons.
    The country are now horribly divided, the 2 main parties are divided, the Leavers have no clue what to do now. Boris is now faced with what to do, I think he wanted to be a Valiant loser, and then sweep in to number 10.
    I used to be a Boris fan, but he has used this referendum for his own ends,regardless of the damage.
    OK mark me down as a sad loser,time will tell who was right.
    Just for the record,I am a pensioner, I have 2 degrees, I ran my own business with 100 employees, sold out to a multi national and worked everywhere after the sale.
    Finally, I do not know where in future I can vote, neither of the 2 main parties inspire.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    No. It must be a Leaver.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    The point of the vote on Thursday was that Brussels can't make us do what we don't want to...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    edited June 2016
    John_N4 said:

    John_N4 said:


    I am not at all sure that there would be a majority for Yes in a second indyref. Not all in Scotland who voted for Remain would vote Yes.

    How did your various estimates of the Scottish Brexit vote go?
    I was surprised by the strength of support for Remain. And very surprised that Remain won in the Western Isles.
    FPT: It was more Orkney and Shetland that surprised me a wee bit.

    Forgive me if you have seen it - but the Grauniad website has/had some very interesting correlation scatter diagrams of the vote % (abscissa) against socio-economic factor (class, education, etc.) Mousing over the graph identifies the constituency for each data point. They comment on the Scottish votes being outliers.

    As for not all remainers voting yes, true, and I would add that not all Yes voters would vote yes again for an EU membership.

    But you will have noted the shift of the Herald and Record newspapers to, apparently, supporting indyref 2 - which is another straw in the wind to my mind.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,884
    Sorry, but I find her to be very unimpressive.
  • SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    BTW I'm so glad Jack W is back and posting but I'm worried that his ARSE has shown to be fallible over BREXIT. Will that mean that Trump will be President and Corbyn will be Prime Minister?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,709
    Liz Truzz has a 1% chance but that is being generous. First she is a Remainer which would pretty much destroy her chances now anyway but second she is not even in the front-rank of the Cabinet. It is hard to see past Boris or Gove and neither wielded the knife, Cameron did it to himself
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    FPT:
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/jonmacqueen/status/746706256128270337

    Wasn't there some postings on Twitter that he had G7 meetings during the day on Friday?
    I thought Mark Carney had kidnapped him and was holding him in the basement of the BoE to stop him saying something stupid that would add to the markets' troubles. Maybe he'll be let out at lunchtime on Monday if the markets have stabilised.


    He'll be let out on Monday alright... :D
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    jayfdee said:


    Finally, I do not know where in future I can vote, neither of the 2 main parties inspire.

    That is a tricky one. I have hopes for a Leave-lead Conservative Party, but they're fragile hopes.

  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    They can't.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,184
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    notme said:

    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Seriously, she's even more awful every day

    Soubry blames EU loss on 'white working class' who have 'probably never even seen a migrant' | Nottingham Post https://t.co/GTaepwbiLL wtf

    I was wishing NickP won at GE2015 as I thought there was little policy difference and NickP is a nicer human being.
    Nick P is an exceptionally kind,gentle and compassionate human being
    If his gvt hadnt done the dirty on Treaty of Lisbon, we would not have had this referendum.
    Quite. This vote should never have happened. Because we should have been allowed a vote on prior Treaties, not the hideous binary choice of last week. And Nick P, no doubt a gallant and pleasant gentleman, was a gloating part of the government that denied us a vote on Lisbon

    But we are where we are. What the fuck do we do now?

    Surely we have to move swiftly to the EEA. Keeping Free Movement for now, and letting the voters decide on limiting immigration at the next election.
    Sean - the mood music from the Leave camp is row-back. Are they going to row-back to the status quo? No-one seems to know what to do? This is very serious...

    The only one holding his nerve is Nigel Farage.
    They're calling it Regrexit: the Buyer's Remorse of the LEAVE camp.

    I reckon we will see a classic fudge, where Britain hardly moves at all but just gets given a special name - some kind of "associate membership". EEA status with knobs on. We will still be in the single market, subject to the ECJ in economic terms. We will be outside CAP and CFP.

    There will be lots of bluster but this will suit everyone, in the end,

    Apart, of course, from the British voters who want an end to migration. They will howl and vote UKIP, who will gain at the expense of Labour.
    Yes, I think you could be right. I was convinced Cameron would do the Article 50 thing that day - almost as a final act of sod-you-all-defiance if nothing else. That he didn't suggests to me that Gove and Boris pleaded with him backstage to give them time to pull things from the fire. The EU will come up with 'the UK Plan', Boris will recommend it, it will then be carried in a subsequent vote. We'll be back where we started, and this will just go down as one of those odd quirks of EU history like Greenland leaving.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,122
    FPT

    I've been plowing thru the links provided in the below-the-line comments on the previous thread: so many in fact, I've forgotten who posted them. I'm fairly sure @PlatoSaid was one of them, but I can't remember the others, so this will have to be a generic "thank-you". So thank you for the links, guys.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RoyalBlue said:

    No. It must be a Leaver.

    snap!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,727
    Interesting, Bunnco, many thanks.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    BBC reporting Merkel's careful choice of words 'Britain has chosen to leave the EU - and the single market. First shot in the negotiation?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    DanSmith said:

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    They can't.
    They can treat the UK as if it is a non-member state - the most high-profile example being no Commissioner - and wait for the UK to sue in the ECJ.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,042
    Danny565 said:

    Are there any new opinion polls due soon?

    My guess is, if they do any new EU Referendum polls, there'll be an even healthier lead for Leave, with people saying "it's been done now and I want to feel excited about the possibilities" outweighing the people who said "what have we done".

    There are bitter people, but I've encountered far more feeling upbeat about the vote.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Danny565 said:

    Are there any new opinion polls due soon?

    My guess is, if they do any new EU Referendum polls, there'll be an even healthier lead for Leave, with people saying "it's been done now and I want to feel excited about the possibilities" outweighing the people who said "what have we done".

    I have some used cat litter and seaweed. Would that do instead?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,352
    RobD said:

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/jonmacqueen/status/746706256128270337

    Wasn't there some postings on Twitter that he had G7 meetings during the day on Friday?
    I thought Mark Carney had kidnapped him and was holding him in the basement of the BoE to stop him saying something stupid that would add to the markets' troubles. Maybe he'll be let out at lunchtime on Monday if the markets have stabilised.


    He'll be let out on Monday alright... :D
    Will he have his Punishment Budget drafted by then?
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    DanSmith said:

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    They can't.
    They can, and will, it will be Boris, and Heaven help us.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    nunu said:

    no. it has to be an outer.

    True. Backing Remain is a deal-breaker.

    Top Leave candidates: Johnson, Leadsom, Gove, Leadsom, Patel, Leadsom, Villiers?
    I've really warmed to Villiers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,754
    If she had the courage to come out for leave she would be in with a chance but she didn't so she doesn't. Victori spolia.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,727
    SandraM said:

    BTW I'm so glad Jack W is back and posting but I'm worried that his ARSE has shown to be fallible over BREXIT. Will that mean that Trump will be President and Corbyn will be Prime Minister?

    As long as we don't end up with Mr Trump for PM and Mr Corbyn for POTUS ..... :smile:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pork Markets.
    British Cheese.

    Social media would have a field day.
    Opponents would have a field day.
    Panel Shows would have a field day.

    Thanks :( I had almost expunged those from my memory.
    I only dimly recall these - what did she say?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2016
    felix said:

    BBC reporting Merkel's careful choice of words 'Britain has chosen to leave the EU - and the single market. First shot in the negotiation?

    Telling that Frau Merkel thinks that she speaks for the rEU. She does, of course, but she shouldn't make it so obvious.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2016

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    The point of the vote on Thursday was that Brussels can't make us do what we don't want to...
    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,709
    edited June 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM

    Which is why I think Gove has a strong chance if he runs, he was top of the most recent Tory members' poll and both Cameron and Osborne are closer to him than Boris
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,042

    FPT

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    notme said:

    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Seriously, she's even more awful every day

    Soubry blames EU loss on 'white working class' who have 'probably never even seen a migrant' | Nottingham Post https://t.co/GTaepwbiLL wtf

    I was wishing NickP won at GE2015 as I thought there was little policy difference and NickP is a nicer human being.
    Nick P is an exceptionally kind,gentle and compassionate human being
    If his gvt hadnt done the dirty on Treaty of Lisbon, we would not have had this referendum.
    Quite. This vote should never have happened. Because we should have been allowed a vote on prior Treaties, not the hideous binary choice of last week. And Nick P, no doubt a gallant and pleasant gentleman, was a gloating part of the government that denied us a vote on Lisbon

    But we are where we are. What the fuck do we do now?

    Surely we have to move swiftly to the EEA. Keeping Free Movement for now, and letting the voters decide on limiting immigration at the next election.
    Sean - the mood music from the Leave camp is row-back. Are they going to row-back to the status quo? No-one seems to know what to do? This is very serious...

    The only one holding his nerve is Nigel Farage.
    They're calling it Regrexit: the Buyer's Remorse of the LEAVE camp.

    I reckon we will see a classic fudge, where Britain hardly moves at all but just gets given a special name - some kind of "associate membership". EEA status with knobs on. We will still be in the single market, subject to the ECJ in economic terms. We will be outside CAP and CFP.

    There will be lots of bluster but this will suit everyone, in the end,

    Apart, of course, from the British voters who want an end to migration. They will howl and vote UKIP, who will gain at the expense of Labour.
    Yes, I think you could be right. I was convinced Cameron would do the Article 50 thing that day - almost as a final act of sod-you-all-defiance if nothing else. That he didn't suggests to me that Gove and Boris pleaded with him backstage to give them time to pull things from the fire. The EU will come up with 'the UK Plan', Boris will recommend it, it will then be carried in a subsequent vote. We'll be back where we started, and this will just go down as one of those odd quirks of EU history like Greenland leaving.
    No. This is a turning point, like Labour's victory in 1945.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    EPG said:

    DanSmith said:

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    They can't.
    They can treat the UK as if it is a non-member state - the most high-profile example being no Commissioner - and wait for the UK to sue in the ECJ.
    Oh no, we don't have a commissioner! If they do something more substantive, then maybe.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    no. it has to be an outer.

    True. Backing Remain is a deal-breaker.

    Top Leave candidates: Johnson, Leadsom, Gove, Leadsom, Patel, Leadsom, Villiers?
    I've really warmed to Villiers.
    ...But your first choice is Andrea Leadsom. I understand completely.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    jayfdee said:

    DanSmith said:

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    They can't.
    They can, and will, it will be Boris, and Heaven help us.
    I know Leave won in a post fact era but a sad show if PB is reduced to the same. The EU will just have to be patient.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2016
    SandraM said:

    BTW I'm so glad Jack W is back and posting but I'm worried that his ARSE has shown to be fallible over BREXIT. Will that mean that Trump will be President and Corbyn will be Prime Minister?

    I feel like a right CNUT that has been proven to be not so all royally powerful. Why is there water lapping at my feet?

    Bloody hell not incontinence again. :anguished:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,709
    SandraM said:

    BTW I'm so glad Jack W is back and posting but I'm worried that his ARSE has shown to be fallible over BREXIT. Will that mean that Trump will be President and Corbyn will be Prime Minister?

    I think Trump could now well be President, Corbyn won't be PM
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Graham Brady could be value at 220 on Betfair Exchange.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.

    I was just going to post that.

    Article 50 doesn't specify what "notify" means.

    If Cameron says at the meeting "we are leaving" that's it.

    And if Brexiteers want to challenge that, they need to go the ECJ :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    Picking up on the discussion I was having with Jonathan and Southam this morning:-
    Jonathan said:



    Blairite is a meaningless term of abuse. Labour needs a leader like John Smith IMO. Solid as a rock, an obvious viable Pm, fiercely bright and a good communicator.

    "Blairite" is not a meaningless term of abuse, when we just got Blairism tested at the ballot box a few days ago. I know you don't agree with this, but to me it seems obvious that the "Remain" message took all of the Blairites' key themes: economic conservatism and defending the status quo, being pro-immigration, being "internationalist". And that's no surprise, since a lot of today's Blairites were among the people who designed the "Britain Stronger in Europe" strategy (Chuka Umunna, Liz Kendall and Emma Reynolds were some of the key strategists). It self-evidently did not work in winning votes, so why would it work any better if that became the Labour Party's strategy?

    Sure, we all want a John Smith figure. Someone who was a good communicator and an obvious PM, and who had great political judgement. But I don't see one, or anyone close, in the current crop of Labour MPs: again, the very fact most of the PLP were enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign precisely shows how bad their political judgement is, because they backed a cause which was toxically unpopular in the Labour heartlands. If they had the political judgement of a John Smith or a 1990s Tony Blair, they would've seen in advance how unpopular the EU was with the voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,754
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM

    Which is why I think Gove has a strong chance if he runs, he was top of the most recent Tory members' poll and both Cameron and Osborne are closer to him than Boris
    I would vote for Gove over Boris but he is a man of his word and I do not believe he would run.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    surbiton said:

    It'll be Boris! And sooner than we think - the October option won't be viable. It seems pretty clear now that the EU won't allow our government to be put on hold for months, they will make us get on with it.

    The point of the vote on Thursday was that Brussels can't make us do what we don't want to...
    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.
    Not if he says "HMG is currently reviewing their position based on the consultative referendum held on June 23rd."
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Scott_P said:

    surbiton said:

    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.

    I was just going to post that.

    Article 50 doesn't specify what "notify" means.

    If Cameron says at the meeting "we are leaving" that's it.

    And if Brexiteers want to challenge that, they need to go the ECJ :)
    Please stop making stuff up.

    A spokesman for the European Council has issued the following statement clarifying how Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered - the mechanism to be used by a country withdrawing from the EU.

    The notification of Article 50 is a formal act and has to be done by the British government to the European Council. It has to be done in an unequivocal manner with the explicit intent to trigger Article 50.
    It could either be a letter to the President of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting. Negotiations of leaving and the future relationship can only begin after such a formal notification.
    If it is indeed the intention of the British government to leave the EU, it is therefore in its interest to notify as soon as possible."
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tata Steel bidder about to withdraw offer because of Brexit. Well done, Wales !
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    felix said:

    BBC reporting Merkel's careful choice of words 'Britain has chosen to leave the EU - and the single market. First shot in the negotiation?

    Telling that Frau Merkel thinks that she speaks for the rEU. She does, of course, but she shouldn't make it so obvious.
    So I'm right and it's not looking a good start. Any sign that Leave have a plan yet? I ask more in hope than expectation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,754
    Scott_P said:

    surbiton said:

    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.

    I was just going to post that.

    Article 50 doesn't specify what "notify" means.

    If Cameron says at the meeting "we are leaving" that's it.

    And if Brexiteers want to challenge that, they need to go the ECJ :)
    What on earth makes you believe for one second that Cameron would act in such an irresponsible way?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    RobD said:

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/jonmacqueen/status/746706256128270337

    Wasn't there some postings on Twitter that he had G7 meetings during the day on Friday?
    I thought Mark Carney had kidnapped him and was holding him in the basement of the BoE to stop him saying something stupid that would add to the markets' troubles. Maybe he'll be let out at lunchtime on Monday if the markets have stabilised.


    He'll be let out on Monday alright... :D
    Will he have his Punishment Budget drafted by then?
    Hmmm - let's hope the markets don't write it for him.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DanSmith said:

    an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting.

    "Mr Cameron, are you leaving?

    "Yes"

    Duly noted
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,727
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM

    Which is why I think Gove has a strong chance if he runs, he was top of the most recent Tory members' poll and both Cameron and Osborne are closer to him than Boris
    I gather Mr Gove has had no ambitions to be PM, but the circumstances now are rather unusual. We really do need someone committed to Leave, which restricts the options somewhat. Is there any likelihood that, however reluctant, he may look around and feel obliged to put himself forward?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,184
    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    notme said:

    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Seriously, she's even more awful every day

    Soubry blames EU loss on 'white working class' who have 'probably never even seen a migrant' | Nottingham Post https://t.co/GTaepwbiLL wtf

    I was wishing NickP won at GE2015 as I thought there was little policy difference and NickP is a nicer human being.
    Nick P is an exceptionally kind,gentle and compassionate human being
    If his gvt hadnt done the dirty on Treaty of Lisbon, we would not have had this referendum.
    Quite. This vote should never have happened. Because we should have been allowed a vote on prior Treaties, not the hideous binary choice of last week. And Nick P, no doubt a gallant and pleasant gentleman, was a gloating part of the government that denied us a vote on Lisbon

    But we are where we are. What the fuck do we do now?

    Surely we have to move swiftly to the EEA. Keeping Free Movement for now, and letting the voters decide on limiting immigration at the next election.
    Sean - the mood music from the Leave camp is row-back. Are they going to row-back to the status quo? No-one seems to know what to do? This is very serious...

    The only one holding his nerve is Nigel Farage.
    They're calling it Regrexit: the Buyer's Remorse of the LEAVE camp.

    I reckon we will see a classic fudge, where Britain hardly moves at all but just gets given a special name - some kind of "associate membership". EEA status with knobs on. We will still be in the single market, subject to the ECJ in economic terms. We will be outside CAP and CFP.

    There will be lots of bluster but this will suit everyone, in the end,

    Apart, of course, from the British voters who want an end to migration. They will howl and vote UKIP, who will gain at the expense of Labour.
    Yes, I think you could be right. I was convinced Cameron would do the Article 50 thing that day - almost as a final act of sod-you-all-defiance if nothing else. That he didn't suggests to me that Gove and Boris pleaded with him backstage to give them time to pull things from the fire. The EU will come up with 'the UK Plan', Boris will recommend it, it will then be carried in a subsequent vote. We'll be back where we started, and this will just go down as one of those odd quirks of EU history like Greenland leaving.
    No. This is a turning point, like Labour's victory in 1945.
    But that was driven by monumental events - world war, end of empire, centuries-old certainties swept away. This is a manifestation of the Trump effect.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    no. it has to be an outer.

    True. Backing Remain is a deal-breaker.

    Top Leave candidates: Johnson, Leadsom, Gove, Leadsom, Patel, Leadsom, Villiers?
    I've really warmed to Villiers.
    ...But your first choice is Andrea Leadsom. I understand completely.
    There's real talent that's risen to the top as a result of the campaign. I'm absolutely 100% against promotion based on ovaries. Leadsom and Villiers have impressed me. Leadsom in a CoE lite role would suit me. And something big for Villiers.

    I've always rather liked May because she's rather no nonsense and steely, but she's been too political over playing Leave/Remain/Leave. I can't trust her. Shame really - but she did it to herself.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting.

    "Mr Cameron, are you leaving?

    "Yes"

    Duly noted
    Why would he reply Yes?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: 'The real division in Britain is between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded,' writes Nick Cohen https://t.co/uOBoHOFHe9

    LOL. Another metropolitan journo who doesn't understand why the people voted as they did. Hint: get out of your London bubble and go and ask them.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Danny565 said:

    Are there any new opinion polls due soon?

    My guess is, if they do any new EU Referendum polls, there'll be an even healthier lead for Leave, with people saying "it's been done now and I want to feel excited about the possibilities" outweighing the people who said "what have we done".

    Who really cares? Polls taken on the day got the result completely wrong, so the odds are any new polls will still show remain winning. The usual suspects will try to make something of it, but the polling industry doesn't know how to conduct accurate polls, so it isn't worth a pile of beans.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Danny565 said:

    Picking up on the discussion I was having with Jonathan and Southam this morning:-

    Jonathan said:



    Blairite is a meaningless term of abuse. Labour needs a leader like John Smith IMO. Solid as a rock, an obvious viable Pm, fiercely bright and a good communicator.

    "Blairite" is not a meaningless term of abuse, when we just got Blairism tested at the ballot box a few days ago. I know you don't agree with this, but to me it seems obvious that the "Remain" message took all of the Blairites' key themes: economic conservatism and defending the status quo, being pro-immigration, being "internationalist". And that's no surprise, since a lot of today's Blairites were among the people who designed the "Britain Stronger in Europe" strategy (Chuka Umunna, Liz Kendall and Emma Reynolds were some of the key strategists). It self-evidently did not work in winning votes, so why would it work any better if that became the Labour Party's strategy?

    Sure, we all want a John Smith figure. Someone who was a good communicator and an obvious PM, and who had great political judgement. But I don't see one, or anyone close, in the current crop of Labour MPs: again, the very fact most of the PLP were enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign precisely shows how bad their political judgement is, because they backed a cause which was toxically unpopular in the Labour heartlands. If they had the political judgement of a John Smith or a 1990s Tony Blair, they would've seen in advance how unpopular the EU was with the voters.
    There was a Labour Leave spokesman who looked promising. Some videos were posted on here, young plump chap.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,893
    In God we Truss? :lol:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Why would he reply Yes?

    Because it's true?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,056
    DanSmith said:

    Scott_P said:

    surbiton said:

    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.

    I was just going to post that.

    Article 50 doesn't specify what "notify" means.

    If Cameron says at the meeting "we are leaving" that's it.

    And if Brexiteers want to challenge that, they need to go the ECJ :)
    Please stop making stuff up.

    A spokesman for the European Council has issued the following statement clarifying how Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered - the mechanism to be used by a country withdrawing from the EU.

    The notification of Article 50 is a formal act and has to be done by the British government to the European Council. It has to be done in an unequivocal manner with the explicit intent to trigger Article 50.
    It could either be a letter to the President of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting. Negotiations of leaving and the future relationship can only begin after such a formal notification.
    If it is indeed the intention of the British government to leave the EU, it is therefore in its interest to notify as soon as possible."
    Surely such a formal and significant step requires a vote in Parliament?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,570
    They bloody well can speed it up. We want to negotiate a soft exit onto wrote time. They can threaten a hard exit at speed.

    Anyway. Elect Boris and create a schism. Elect not Boris and create a schism. And in the meantime who is in government? Cameron hasn't got the authority to switch the lights on in Number 10. His Chancellor has had to go awol to avoid the hate mob of Tory MPs who want his head. Cameron can't quit early as his deputy is his Chancellor. Another reason why this won't take months.

    So, a new leader next month. No authority or control. The party conferences will be used by the new Tory and Labour leaders to set out their respective stalls. Parliament meets on Monday 10th October, passes a motion for an early general election, Boris goes to see Brenda, and we will have a General Election on Thursday 10th November.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,709
    maaarsh said:

    Danny565 said:

    Are there any new opinion polls due soon?

    My guess is, if they do any new EU Referendum polls, there'll be an even healthier lead for Leave, with people saying "it's been done now and I want to feel excited about the possibilities" outweighing the people who said "what have we done".

    Who really cares? Polls taken on the day got the result completely wrong, so the odds are any new polls will still show remain winning. The usual suspects will try to make something of it, but the polling industry doesn't know how to conduct accurate polls, so it isn't worth a pile of beans.
    TNS and Opinium and ICM had Leave winning in their final polls, so wait and see what their next polls show
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting.

    "Mr Cameron, are you leaving?

    "Yes"

    Duly noted
    It has to be done in an unequivocal manner with the explicit intent to trigger Article 50.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,893
    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting.

    "Mr Cameron, are you leaving?

    "Yes"

    Duly noted
    "Yes - the removal van will turn up in Downing Street in October" :lol:
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    Scott_P said:

    surbiton said:

    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.

    I was just going to post that.

    Article 50 doesn't specify what "notify" means.

    If Cameron says at the meeting "we are leaving" that's it.

    And if Brexiteers want to challenge that, they need to go the ECJ :)
    Please stop making stuff up.

    A spokesman for the European Council has issued the following statement clarifying how Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered - the mechanism to be used by a country withdrawing from the EU.

    The notification of Article 50 is a formal act and has to be done by the British government to the European Council. It has to be done in an unequivocal manner with the explicit intent to trigger Article 50.
    It could either be a letter to the President of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting. Negotiations of leaving and the future relationship can only begin after such a formal notification.
    If it is indeed the intention of the British government to leave the EU, it is therefore in its interest to notify as soon as possible."
    Exactly. It could either be a letter to the President of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting. Tuesday morning ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Why would he reply Yes?

    Because it's true?
    Doesn't mean he has to say it! I am sure he will be well briefed on what does and does not constitute an article 50 declaration.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM

    Which is why I think Gove has a strong chance if he runs, he was top of the most recent Tory members' poll and both Cameron and Osborne are closer to him than Boris
    I would vote for Gove over Boris but he is a man of his word and I do not believe he would run.
    I agree about Gove - I actually think he would be a great PM, but he's been made it clear on numerous occasions since 2010 that he's not interested in the top job.

    Boris v Theresa for the Membership to pick?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,709
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM

    Which is why I think Gove has a strong chance if he runs, he was top of the most recent Tory members' poll and both Cameron and Osborne are closer to him than Boris
    I gather Mr Gove has had no ambitions to be PM, but the circumstances now are rather unusual. We really do need someone committed to Leave, which restricts the options somewhat. Is there any likelihood that, however reluctant, he may look around and feel obliged to put himself forward?
    Osborne certainly will now be pushing him to heavily, he loathes Boris but still has amicable relations with Gove
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,637
    IanB2 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Scott_P said:

    surbiton said:

    There is no requirement that Article 50 has to be invoked in the form of a letter. When Cameron meets the EU leaders on Tuesday, he will have informed them and, Article 50 will have been invoked.

    I was just going to post that.

    Article 50 doesn't specify what "notify" means.

    If Cameron says at the meeting "we are leaving" that's it.

    And if Brexiteers want to challenge that, they need to go the ECJ :)
    Please stop making stuff up.

    A spokesman for the European Council has issued the following statement clarifying how Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered - the mechanism to be used by a country withdrawing from the EU.

    The notification of Article 50 is a formal act and has to be done by the British government to the European Council. It has to be done in an unequivocal manner with the explicit intent to trigger Article 50.
    It could either be a letter to the President of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting. Negotiations of leaving and the future relationship can only begin after such a formal notification.
    If it is indeed the intention of the British government to leave the EU, it is therefore in its interest to notify as soon as possible."
    Surely such a formal and significant step requires a vote in Parliament?
    No, it at the prerogative of the executive.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    no. it has to be an outer.

    True. Backing Remain is a deal-breaker.

    Top Leave candidates: Johnson, Leadsom, Gove, Leadsom, Patel, Leadsom, Villiers?
    I've really warmed to Villiers.
    ...But your first choice is Andrea Leadsom. I understand completely.
    There's real talent that's risen to the top as a result of the campaign. I'm absolutely 100% against promotion based on ovaries. Leadsom and Villiers have impressed me. Leadsom in a CoE lite role would suit me. And something big for Villiers.

    I've always rather liked May because she's rather no nonsense and steely, but she's been too political over playing Leave/Remain/Leave. I can't trust her. Shame really - but she did it to herself.
    I'm always baffled by the concept of Ms May as a leadership candidate. I see her name in the various polls, but I just can't see her appeal.

    And in the current climate, she is again, a Remain supporter. So a non-starter.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    maaarsh said:

    Danny565 said:

    Are there any new opinion polls due soon?

    My guess is, if they do any new EU Referendum polls, there'll be an even healthier lead for Leave, with people saying "it's been done now and I want to feel excited about the possibilities" outweighing the people who said "what have we done".

    Who really cares? Polls taken on the day got the result completely wrong, so the odds are any new polls will still show remain winning. The usual suspects will try to make something of it, but the polling industry doesn't know how to conduct accurate polls, so it isn't worth a pile of beans.
    Polls would still be useful for detecting any trends since Thursday.

    The reason is because the London bubble have convinced themselves that loads of people who voted Brexit are now regretting it, and that a new referendum would return a Remain result - whereas, in my experience, what's actually happening is a lot of people who grudgingly voted Remain are getting caught up in the excitement about "getting our country back". Similar to a honeymoon effect after a popular new government, where even a lot of people who backed the losing side want to believe that good change is coming.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    felix said:

    felix said:

    BBC reporting Merkel's careful choice of words 'Britain has chosen to leave the EU - and the single market. First shot in the negotiation?

    Telling that Frau Merkel thinks that she speaks for the rEU. She does, of course, but she shouldn't make it so obvious.
    So I'm right and it's not looking a good start. Any sign that Leave have a plan yet? I ask more in hope than expectation.
    No surprise.
    The Hun is either at your feet or at your throat. Our government's job is to put that woman in her place.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IanB2 said:

    Surely such a formal and significant step requires a vote in Parliament?

    No

    Ask Gordon Brown
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pork Markets.
    British Cheese.

    Social media would have a field day.
    Opponents would have a field day.
    Panel Shows would have a field day.

    Thanks :( I had almost expunged those from my memory.
    I only dimly recall these - what did she say?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRhlRM6rYck

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9lxApMJWng
  • theakestheakes Posts: 965
    Conversation in the Co Op 20 minutes ago: I din't think this would happen, voted Leave to give Cameron a shock, dont think we should actually leave!!! Me too, yes.
    On such folk and decisions history is made.
    Perhaps Parliament should have a good look at this.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,893
    Annoying
    Remainers
    Sulking about
    Europe

    :lol::lol::lol:
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    Danny565 said:

    Are there any new opinion polls due soon?

    I just did a Yougov online one which asked me, among other things, how I'd voted and whether I regretted it. So there will presumably be something, at some point.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,042

    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    notme said:

    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Seriously, she's even more awful every day

    Soubry blames EU loss on 'white working class' who have 'probably never even seen a migrant' | Nottingham Post https://t.co/GTaepwbiLL wtf

    I was wishing NickP won at GE2015 as I thought there was little policy difference and NickP is a nicer human being.
    Nick P is an exceptionally kind,gentle and compassionate human being
    If his gvt hadnt done the dirty on Treaty of Lisbon, we would not have had this referendum.
    Quite.
    But we are where we are. What the fuck do we do now?

    Surely we have to move swiftly to the EEA. Keeping Free Movement for now, and letting the voters decide on limiting immigration at the next election.
    Sean - the mood music from the Leave camp is row-back. Are they going to row-back to the status quo? No-one seems to know what to do? This is very serious...

    The only one holding his nerve is Nigel Farage.
    They're calling it Regrexit: the Buyer's Remorse of the LEAVE camp.

    I reckon we will see a classic fudge, where Britain hardly moves at all but just gets given a special name - some kind of "associate membership". EEA status with knobs on. We will still be in the single market, subject to the ECJ in economic terms. We will be outside CAP and CFP.

    There will be lots of bluster but this will suit everyone, in the end,

    Apart, of course, from the British voters who want an end to migration. They will howl and vote UKIP, who will gain at the expense of Labour.
    Yes, I think you could be right. I was convinced Cameron would do the Article 50 thing that day - almost as a final act of sod-you-all-defiance if nothing else. That he didn't suggests to me that Gove and Boris pleaded with him backstage to give them time to pull things from the fire. The EU will come up with 'the UK Plan', Boris will recommend it, it will then be carried in a subsequent vote. We'll be back where we started, and this will just go down as one of those odd quirks of EU history like Greenland leaving.
    No. This is a turning point, like Labour's victory in 1945.
    But that was driven by monumental events - world war, end of empire, centuries-old certainties swept away. This is a manifestation of the Trump effect.
    We have had decades of certainties swept away. And people have listened to the Establishment, and said "We disagree."
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2016
    Bunnco - I thought you were now "Your man on the inside" but no matter.

    Following your comments yesterday about Lynn Truss' promotion prospects, I backed her for small stakes, firstly at 370 (350/1 net) and subsequently at 430 (407/1 net) with Betfair.
    Such is the influence of PB.com that her odds have since collapsed to 65 (61/1 net)
    Were she to reach such dizzying heights, the return on my bet would even far exceed the wondrous 250/1 Formula 1 winner identified here by Morris Dancer a few weeks ago.
    Fingers crossed.

    P.S. I did mention on my earlier post that it was great to see you back on PB.com after an extended absence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    Lowlander said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pork Markets.
    British Cheese.

    Social media would have a field day.
    Opponents would have a field day.
    Panel Shows would have a field day.

    Thanks :( I had almost expunged those from my memory.
    I only dimly recall these - what did she say?
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRhlRM6rYck

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9lxApMJWng
    OMG no
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,709
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM

    Which is why I think Gove has a strong chance if he runs, he was top of the most recent Tory members' poll and both Cameron and Osborne are closer to him than Boris
    I would vote for Gove over Boris but he is a man of his word and I do not believe he would run.
    We shall see, as you say it depends on whether or not he runs
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.

    It will be hard for him to be PM

    Which is why I think Gove has a strong chance if he runs, he was top of the most recent Tory members' poll and both Cameron and Osborne are closer to him than Boris
    I gather Mr Gove has had no ambitions to be PM, but the circumstances now are rather unusual. We really do need someone committed to Leave, which restricts the options somewhat. Is there any likelihood that, however reluctant, he may look around and feel obliged to put himself forward?
    I hope Gove plays a big brain role in the negotiations. We need a hard nut like Frances Maude to do the fisty cuffs - who could that be now?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    surbiton said:

    Tata Steel bidder about to withdraw offer because of Brexit. Well done, Wales !

    There is a strong strand in Wales, and indeed in other Labour heartlands, of we want LEAVE and we don't care.

    Time will tell if buyers remorse has legs but in the final analysis on this bill of sale no returns are available.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,884
    Night of the long knives at Sky News:

    http://tinyurl.com/jfkt97g
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    2.2 million people sign petition calling for another referendum:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    felix said:

    felix said:

    BBC reporting Merkel's careful choice of words 'Britain has chosen to leave the EU - and the single market. First shot in the negotiation?

    Telling that Frau Merkel thinks that she speaks for the rEU. She does, of course, but she shouldn't make it so obvious.
    So I'm right and it's not looking a good start. Any sign that Leave have a plan yet? I ask more in hope than expectation.
    No surprise.
    The Hun is either at your feet or at your throat. Our government's job is to put that woman in her place.
    Oh dear - that will clearly ensure a great Brexit deal - attack Germany who you said earlier speaks for the EU. Started early on the sherry have we?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Danny565 said:

    Picking up on the discussion I was having with Jonathan and Southam this morning:-

    Jonathan said:



    Blairite is a meaningless term of abuse. Labour needs a leader like John Smith IMO. Solid as a rock, an obvious viable Pm, fiercely bright and a good communicator.

    "Blairite" is not a meaningless term of abuse, when we just got Blairism tested at the ballot box a few days ago. I know you don't agree with this, but to me it seems obvious that the "Remain" message took all of the Blairites' key themes: economic conservatism and defending the status quo, being pro-immigration, being "internationalist". And that's no surprise, since a lot of today's Blairites were among the people who designed the "Britain Stronger in Europe" strategy (Chuka Umunna, Liz Kendall and Emma Reynolds were some of the key strategists). It self-evidently did not work in winning votes, so why would it work any better if that became the Labour Party's strategy?

    Sure, we all want a John Smith figure. Someone who was a good communicator and an obvious PM, and who had great political judgement. But I don't see one, or anyone close, in the current crop of Labour MPs: again, the very fact most of the PLP were enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign precisely shows how bad their political judgement is, because they backed a cause which was toxically unpopular in the Labour heartlands. If they had the political judgement of a John Smith or a 1990s Tony Blair, they would've seen in advance how unpopular the EU was with the voters.
    Good grief. You're obsessed by Blairites. No one outside Labour cares. The party is disappearing up its own arse. FWIW it is Kinnock who is the most influential leader on Europe.

    Until it draws on all its talent and stops fighting the last war or the one before that Labour is doomed.

    There's no point having policies if you can't or won't communicate them. That's why Corbyn has to go.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    AndyJS said:

    2.2 million people sign petition calling for another referendum:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Just 15.2 million to go.

    Shocked that turnout for 18-24 was only 36% (or 38%, can't remember the number from the tweet Plato pasted here)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    2.2 million people sign petition calling for another referendum:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Are there any petitions for more chocolate? That's a cause I could get behind!

This discussion has been closed.