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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big thank you to those who’ve contributed to the post-ref

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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,729

    DeClare said:

    John_N4 said:

    weejonnie said:

    John_N4 said:

    1.6 million people have now signed the petition for another EU referendum. If you keep refreshing the page, you can see just how fast the number of signatories is rising.

    Once in a generation kind of thing They'll have to be patient.
    Of course the Government could stick 2 fingers up at them and apply the rules on any FUTURE Join/ Stay out referendum.

    As I said before - it is the liberal left blowing a hissy fit because they are emotionally immature and incapable of accepting adversity.
    I wonder how many insulting words it's possible to get into a sentence? I've always thought that ostentatious literal interpretation of what someone is saying while contemptuously ignoring their meaning is immature.

    "Incapable of accepting adversity"? What's wrong with not accepting adversity? When the going gets tough, the tough get going - they don't just "accept" the position. This isn't boarding school.

    The number of signatures on the petition is about to go over 1.8 million.
    I wonder if it'll get to 16,141,241
    I wouldn't be surprised if it got past that. Has anybody dipped into the raw data?

    "signatures_by_country"
    {"name":"Australia","code":"AU","signature_count":6884},
    {"name":"Belgium","code":"BE","signature_count":1315},
    {"name":"British Antarctic Territory","code":"BAT","signature_count":2},
    {"name":"Canada","code":"CA","signature_count":2343},
    {"name":"France","code":"FR","signature_count":11737},
    {"name":"Germany","code":"DE","signature_count":4325},
    {"name":"Gibraltar","code":"GI","signature_count":2477},
    {"name":"Hong Kong","code":"HK","signature_count":1337},
    {"name":"Ireland","code":"IE","signature_count":1825},
    {"name":"United States","code":"US","signature_count":6364}
    How many for UK?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Do we know which areas had lowest turn-out?

    Glasgow 56.25%
    Newham 59.25%
    Manchester 59.77%

    were the only ones under 60%.

    [Edit: the Electoral Commission got its CSV results file very quickly.]
    Newham was actually less REMAIN (53%) than Redbridge (54%).
    Redbridge 54% surprised me must say.
    I wasn't TBF, I was one of the 46%, natch, but its area mostly consists of Ilford North and Ilford South, which are Labour.
    But so are Barking and Dagenham but that was 62% Leave and even Newham was 47% Leave.

    Now the Asian population in Redbridge is more affluent than that in Newham - could that have made them more Remain ?

    Also would the Conservative voters in the Wanstead and Woodford areas have been more affluent and Remain than those in Havering and Epping ?

    I assume that Hainault was strongly Leave being mostly wwc.
    I don't think you'll find a huge Lab v Tory difference in the Referendum within London itself - it will be very interesting to see the post-vote polling breakdowns. Redbridge has far more middle class wards (and graduates etc) than Newham, which is where its more-remain leaning margin will have come from.
    heh, I got a PhD :sunglasses:
    You got an ARCS too, and that's far more special.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    To all the leavers on this forum I wish to announce that I have been converted to the cause.

    Listening to the abject wittering of the 6 foreign ministers at their meeting in Berlin today, and their preposterous demand that David Cameron serves the Article 50 notice immediately, the sooner they are left to their own anti democratic bubble the better. Juncker’s threatening us with an unfriendly divorce just adds to the narrative of an organisation heading for its own ‘Waterloo’

    I heard Norman Smith of the BBC giving a ridiculous over hyped report on how we were not re-acting to the demands of the EU for immediate negotiations and going ape at the absence of Boris and Michael Gove. Who does he think he is; the BBC staff need to start reflecting the will of the people.

    On the Section 50 notice it cannot, and must not be served, until the new cabinet has approved such an action and certainly cannot be served by David Cameron. If it causes the EU contagion problems tough. They need to realise that they cannot bully us into submission.

    Some of the EU leaders are wailing at the holding of a referendum blaming Conservative Party splits for destabilising their beloved project. I have one word for them ‘democracy’

    I never thought I would get so annoyed but glad I have been able to get it off my chest

    Well done Sir.. It's basically why I decided to finally vote leave as I have no problem with immigration under control , no problem with Europe and free trade. I have a huge massive problem with the undemocratic bullying ways of the EU elite and even when we vote out they still can't help themselves.

    Oh and while I am at it the "shame" remark I fired the other day was NOT personally directed at you but at the statement made in the name of Remain by Dave threatening pensions.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    04:56 Vaz totally shellshocked - Leicester only voted Remain by 2500 votes.

    Wow.

    You are running 30 mins behind!
    I've been rewinding my favourite bits :lol:
    OK - I just had to change channels when Lady Nugee started telling Andrea Leadsom "but where's the plan for today" at 5.30am in the morning to the lady who is not (yet) the Chancellor
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Allison Pearson
    Interesting that 42% of Leave voters were ABs. So not just a revolt by the "plebs" eh?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brexit reaction: There is a special 135-minute edition of @afneil's Sunday Politics following the Marr Show at 9am. https://t.co/7xIq1ZiTJk
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,926
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    "The slippage led Stronger In to ask Gordon Brown directly to join the campaign. The official remain campaign is scathing about the Labour campaign. A source said: “It was unprofessional. They had no stories, no day-to-day content, no messaging. It was partly they were inexperienced, but some of the Corbyn team just did not seem to care.”

    Another said: “We set aside campaign days for them, and then at 2pm they would send over some reheated waffly lukewarm rhetoric. They just never delivered and frankly they did not seem to be that bothered. Honestly, I wonder if this is the outcome that they wanted"


    Well Duh! Corbyn has been for LEAVE for 40 years! :smiley:
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,926
    PlatoSaid said:

    Brexit reaction: There is a special 135-minute edition of @afneil's Sunday Politics following the Marr Show at 9am. https://t.co/7xIq1ZiTJk

    Will they be able to find anybody to go on these programes? ;)
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209
    Scott_P said:
    In that case, it won't be Scotland Northern Ireland leaving us, it will be us leaving them.
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    ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 488
    edited June 2016


    I wouldn't be surprised if it got past that. Has anybody dipped into the raw data?

    "signatures_by_country"
    {"name":"Australia","code":"AU","signature_count":6884},
    {"name":"Belgium","code":"BE","signature_count":1315},
    {"name":"British Antarctic Territory","code":"BAT","signature_count":2},
    {"name":"Canada","code":"CA","signature_count":2343},
    {"name":"France","code":"FR","signature_count":11737},
    {"name":"Germany","code":"DE","signature_count":4325},
    {"name":"Gibraltar","code":"GI","signature_count":2477},
    {"name":"Hong Kong","code":"HK","signature_count":1337},
    {"name":"Ireland","code":"IE","signature_count":1825},
    {"name":"United States","code":"US","signature_count":6364}

    How many for UK?
    Didn't work that out. But if you deduct overseas nationals clued up enough to google a UK postcode, the underage, and people signing multiple times, I very much doubt it's anywhere near the 17,410,742 registered electors who just voted to leave the EU.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    PlatoSaid said:

    04:56 Vaz totally shellshocked - Leicester only voted Remain by 2500 votes.

    Wow.

    They did win the Premier league though by 10 points.

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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't Cameron refer to these in his resignation speech ?
    Well sturgeon is hamstrung isn't she - having made a real song and dance about Scotland should stay in having voted to do so - when the same argument - 10 times as large would be made about England and Wales.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paula
    Want to see how bogus 2nd EU Referendum petition is, click on "Get petition data" on petition page: https://t.co/EG7HvBk2ou #Brexit
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,729

    EPG said:

    If you think the referendum was not advisory but decisive, you are an EU anti-democrat!
    If you think the referendum was not decisive but advisory, you are a REMAIN anti-democrat!

    Bloody weird country.

    If you think the referendum was advisory, you are correct:
    https://next.ft.com/content/5b82031e-1056-31e1-8e0e-4e91774e27f1
    If you think it was decisive mathematically, you're wrong 51.9 to 48.1 is only 3.8 apart. If it had been the other way round Farage would have that as 'unfinished business:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-referendum_uk_576e6585e4b08d2c56393f12
    If you think it was decisive politically, I would say you are right.
    A referendum result for the status quo is unfinished business, in that a similar referendum can be held again
    Farage said "such a narrow margin would prompt him to fight for a second referendum."
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-referendum_uk_576e6585e4b08d2c56393f12
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    Scott_P said:

    @zenjournalist: After Brexit vote, Polish people in England are being targeted with fliers saying "No more Polish vermin" https://t.co/hYCHIqwFuV

    Not only was the campaign fought, and won, on the platform of anti-immigration, the win has given license to those who are anti-immigrant.

    Awesome

    We are where we are.

    This sort of garbage needs to be fallen on like a ton of bricks.

    When I was growing up "Poles" stood by us in WWII (which is more than we did for them) - so the government needs to quickly and unequivocally put their minds at ease.
    Lived opposite a Polish guy when I was a kid who had fought with the Polish armed forces based here in WW2 and had been allowed to stay here via the Polish resettlement act. This only after trade unions wanted them gone because they would 'take our jobs'.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Brexit reaction: There is a special 135-minute edition of @afneil's Sunday Politics following the Marr Show at 9am. https://t.co/7xIq1ZiTJk

    Will they be able to find anybody to go on these programes? ;)
    I can't believe this was only decided yesterday morning. It feels like days ago!
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It may have been posted earlier, but I hadn't seen this interview with Jean-Claude Juncker:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/jean-claude-juncker-interview-brexit-2016-6?IR=T

    "At the same time it is hardly surprising. If someone complains about Europe from Monday to Saturday then nobody is going to believe him on Sunday when he says he is a convinced European."
    Great interview - his ability to be elegantly nasty in silky language is exceptional. Anyone expecting an easy ride in the negotiations should read it.
    Don't worry ! The Leavers assured us the EU will have no option but to grant us the Single Market.
    And they would pay us too don't you know because we have got our control back.

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Matthew Goodwin
    Londoners & Scots can complain but of the 50 authorities that recorded the lowest #EURef turnout exactly half were in.. London & Scotland
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,729
    PlatoSaid said:

    Matthew Goodwin
    Londoners & Scots can complain but of the 50 authorities that recorded the lowest #EURef turnout exactly half were in.. London & Scotland

    It was quite wet in London.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    PlatoSaid said:

    Paula
    Want to see how bogus 2nd EU Referendum petition is, click on "Get petition data" on petition page: https://t.co/EG7HvBk2ou #Brexit


    it's not bogus. I can personally vouch for signing it 957,123 times so there.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    Matthew Goodwin
    Londoners & Scots can complain but of the 50 authorities that recorded the lowest #EURef turnout exactly half were in.. London & Scotland

    It was quite wet in London.
    Are you calling Londoners wet?

    I'm not going to disagree, but I think you could at least try to be civil until after the lager shed. At which point no-one will be paying attention.

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806
    DavidL said:

    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
    They will hold a referendum on principle, which they will likely win. Worry about the implications and how to implement it later. Very much the same idea as Leave.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    DavidL said:

    So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    And this is also why Sturgeon is a key player for Brexit in ensuring a good deal for rUK from Brussels. If the EU wants the prize of Scotland as a full member, it needs to respect Scotland's interest in undisrupted relations with England. I think this will all be negotiated simultaneously so Scotland will never leave the EU.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Just been watching BFM French tv having a special on Brexit, Dominic grieve was interviewed and when asked about the second referendum, was very ambiguous and talking about remain majority in parliament etc. certainly he didn't rule anything out.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    Matthew Goodwin
    Londoners & Scots can complain but of the 50 authorities that recorded the lowest #EURef turnout exactly half were in.. London & Scotland

    It was quite wet in London.
    But the experts said that bad weather doesn't affect turnouts didn't they?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Just been watching BFM French tv having a special on Brexit, Dominic grieve was interviewed and when asked about the second referendum, was very ambiguous and talking about remain majority in parliament etc. certainly he didn't rule anything out.

    The researcher who chose Mr Greive is unlikely to go far in TV.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924

    GIN1138 said:

    To all the leavers on this forum I wish to announce that I have been converted to the cause.

    Listening to the abject wittering of the 6 foreign ministers at their meeting in Berlin today, and their preposterous demand that David Cameron serves the Article 50 notice immediately, the sooner they are left to their own anti democratic bubble the better. Juncker’s threatening us with an unfriendly divorce just adds to the narrative of an organisation heading for its own ‘Waterloo’

    I heard Norman Smith of the BBC giving a ridiculous over hyped report on how we were not re-acting to the demands of the EU for immediate negotiations and going ape at the absence of Boris and Michael Gove. Who does he think he is; the BBC staff need to start reflecting the will of the people.

    On the Section 50 notice it cannot, and must not be served, until the new cabinet has approved such an action and certainly cannot be served by David Cameron. If it causes the EU contagion problems tough. They need to realise that they cannot bully us into submission.

    Some of the EU leaders are wailing at the holding of a referendum blaming Conservative Party splits for destabilising their beloved project. I have one word for them ‘democracy’

    I never thought I would get so annoyed but glad I have been able to get it off my chest

    Welcome to the other side of enemy lines comrade! :smiley:

    The response to the referendum has been an eye-opener hasn't it? ;)
    Yes and they are showing they just do not get it. The Nation now need to unite to make it happen for an Independent UK. The picture from Romford is just unacceptable and I hope action is taken.
    Nice thought but it would be more realistic to accept that we are now a bitterly divided country just like the US. Dialogue of the deaf, both sides equally to blame, seriously doubt there is an easy fix. The idea that the nation is going to unite behind Boris Johnson to make an independent UK "happen" is a pipe dream I'm afraid.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    MontyHall said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PCollinsTimes: When you do think the first "buyer's remorse" opinion poll will be? I give it a week and I think it could be large.

    I am shown three doors. Behind one is something helpful in making money on political betting, behind the other two are things inaccurate and discredited, old fashioned and derided.

    I choose door one.

    The host opens door three to reveal an opinion poll

    Do I switch?
    No
    You read the opinion poll and do the direct opposite.
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    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    John_N4 said:

    What on earth is Boris Johnson playing at, with the idea of a general election?
    Is there a US angle here? The "Trump and Johnson in the autumn" show?
    Things are volatile and the message given by the British people in a general election could be unambiguously pro-Remain. (Good if so.)

    I'm trying to see how Labour could take advantage of this. Obviously first step is getting rid of Corbyn but should Labour position itself as a pro-EU party?
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    Indeed. Especially when the mood from the Leave camp is "Oh shit, we've won - now what do we do? We haven't got a clue so let's keep the status quo!"
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    murali_s said:

    John_N4 said:

    What on earth is Boris Johnson playing at, with the idea of a general election?
    Is there a US angle here? The "Trump and Johnson in the autumn" show?
    Things are volatile and the message given by the British people in a general election could be unambiguously pro-Remain. (Good if so.)

    I'm trying to see how Labour could take advantage of this. Obviously first step is getting rid of Corbyn but should Labour position itself as a pro-EU party?
    Definitely, yes ! But I have a feeling the Liberal Democrats will. They could win some Tories and some moderate Labour voters over.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    GIN1138 said:

    Nick Watt talked last night about No.10 being a like doughnut and I don't think he meant there's jam in the middle. Perhaps instead of leaving the EU we've just decided to dissolve ourselves and no longer have a government.

    Everything will start happening on Monday.

    Mind you, it's surpriging we've not had **any** reports for whats going on Downing St this weekend, even if it's just to say "the modd is grim".

    Maybe they've taken all the phones off the hook, disconnected th1 internet, shut the curtains and locked the doors?
    I haven't a clue how much the Civil Service can do to even begin changing direction without a PM or at least Minister to start the ball rolling. It's easy for us to talk about Mr Johnson or Mr Gove doing this or that, but how can they?

    I was hoping that at least Ministers with a Brexit mind-set might be able to get their own departments going in the new direction, but there aren't many of those.

    It's a great shame that the desire for a Remain result was so strong that it wiped out all contingency planning. I didn't quite believe that, but it now looks as though that claim at least was true.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
    They will hold a referendum on principle, which they will likely win. Worry about the implications and how to implement it later. Very much the same idea as Leave.
    You think? Last time we were presented with the total fantasy land of the SNP White Paper which explained how rich we were going to be and significant numbers chose to believe it (demonstrating the deficiencies of Scottish education better than most things).

    This time we would be asked to vote for what? A principle? Not going to happen. Ruth would have a field day.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    But technically he is correct.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    In my very humble and respectful opinion I think there could be grounds for a court case against the result. Only grounds, just a prima facie case.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    murali_s said:

    John_N4 said:

    What on earth is Boris Johnson playing at, with the idea of a general election?
    Is there a US angle here? The "Trump and Johnson in the autumn" show?
    Things are volatile and the message given by the British people in a general election could be unambiguously pro-Remain. (Good if so.)

    I'm trying to see how Labour could take advantage of this. Obviously first step is getting rid of Corbyn but should Labour position itself as a pro-EU party?
    That would be the death of Labour.

    The Lib Dems do have a chance to resurrect themselves as the only reliable centrist pro-EU party.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    surbiton said:

    But technically he is correct.

    Do it.
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    PlatoSaid said:
    Thanks Plato - interesting stuff to add to the articles in Sun and Mail today.

    "The Stronger In campaign was led by Oliver, the former BBC editor who ran Cameron’s communications team, and Will Straw, a highly-regarded Labour policy expert and son of Jack Straw, a former Labour foreign minister.
    They set up in an open-plan office space in London’s financial district, with room for about 50 people. Joining Oliver and Straw were Ryan Coetzee and James McGrory, a couple of battle-hardened former aides for the Liberal Democrats, and a host of junior Labour special advisers."
    Will Straw = lost GE campaign for a seat.
    Ryan = lost most of the LD MPs their seats.
    "It was an all-star lineup "!!!!!!!!
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    It look as if Michael Gove was telling the truth as regards not wanting to become Prime Minister - he's as big as 23 with Betfair.
    It's looking like a two horse race with Boris the odds-on favourite and Mrs May available at around 5/2. Personally I don't rate either of these two for the top job, so I'm tempted to have a good sprinkling of small bets on less fancied runners in the hope that someone at vastly greater odds might win.
    I seem to recall that at this stage of the proceedings last time, Cameron was still very much an outsider.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    weejonnie said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't Cameron refer to these in his resignation speech ?
    Well sturgeon is hamstrung isn't she - having made a real song and dance about Scotland should stay in having voted to do so - when the same argument - 10 times as large would be made about England and Wales.
    I don't think she will say that E&W have to stay in as well !
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924

    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/746710438843383808

    We all backed a 2016 election at 16/1 months ago, I trust.

    Those were indeed good odds but I think it is very unlikely that the new leader of the Tories will want an election. What if there were some buyers remorse in reality as opposed to the minds of the BBC and the far from united Tories faced a Labour party committed to remaining in? Just not worth the risk.
    The new prime minister, selected by a few tens of thousands of elderly tory members in the shires, will have very little democratic legitimacy.

    As Nate silver (or one of his colleagues) said on his podcast, it would be like the republican primary voters of Iowa selecting the next POTUS.

    And when Gordon Brown was crowned by the Labour Party in 2007, he immediately...

    Yes, he was wrong.

    It would be even more wrong for the next prime minister, who would only derive their legitimacy from the tory selectorate, to attempt to write huge chunks of our new constitution and attempt to negotiate on britains behalf.
    Sam Coates TimesVerified account
    @SamCoatesTimes
    Tory MP contacted by Boris campaign says they r telling MPs he wd go for an immediate general election if he wins to get fresh mandate.

    Yeh, right, and we all believe what campaigns tell MPs when they are trying to get signatures, don't we?

    Johnson will go for an immediate election for 3 reasons:-

    1. He will want to go before the negotiations begin and the electorate turns against Brexiters
    (Assuming they haven't already done so by then)

    2. He will run a platform of EFTA/EEA and will need a mandate to ditch the commitment to
    end Freedom of Movement. It's the only way I can see Brexiters getting out of that
    particular dilemma

    3. He will want to go whilst Corbyn still leads the Labour Party.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    One almost wants them to try it, but our better angels hope they don't.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    murali_s said:

    John_N4 said:

    What on earth is Boris Johnson playing at, with the idea of a general election?
    Is there a US angle here? The "Trump and Johnson in the autumn" show?
    Things are volatile and the message given by the British people in a general election could be unambiguously pro-Remain. (Good if so.)

    I'm trying to see how Labour could take advantage of this. Obviously first step is getting rid of Corbyn but should Labour position itself as a pro-EU party?
    Do it, then Labour will finally have become the Inner London party.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456

    It look as if Michael Gove was telling the truth as regards not wanting to become Prime Minister - he's as big as 23 with Betfair.
    It's looking like a two horse race with Boris the odds-on favourite and Mrs May available at around 5/2. Personally I don't rate either of these two for the top job, so I'm tempted to have a good sprinkling of small bets on less fancied runners in the hope that someone at vastly greater odds might win.
    I seem to recall that at this stage of the proceedings last time, Cameron was still very much an outsider.

    Is Hammond out? He's way off on BF at 170.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    It look as if Michael Gove was telling the truth as regards not wanting to become Prime Minister - he's as big as 23 with Betfair.
    It's looking like a two horse race with Boris the odds-on favourite and Mrs May available at around 5/2. Personally I don't rate either of these two for the top job, so I'm tempted to have a good sprinkling of small bets on less fancied runners in the hope that someone at vastly greater odds might win.
    I seem to recall that at this stage of the proceedings last time, Cameron was still very much an outsider.

    Anna Soubry !
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Seriously, she's even more awful every day

    Soubry blames EU loss on 'white working class' who have 'probably never even seen a migrant' | Nottingham Post https://t.co/GTaepwbiLL wtf
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    I am not saying there will not be a second referendum. I am saying that Nicola needs to be very sure that she can offer Scotland unlimited and unrestricted access to its most important market before it happens. That depends on the deal between the UK and the EU. Without this access independence would be economic suicide.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456

    PlatoSaid said:
    Thanks Plato - interesting stuff to add to the articles in Sun and Mail today.

    "The Stronger In campaign was led by Oliver, the former BBC editor who ran Cameron’s communications team, and Will Straw, a highly-regarded Labour policy expert and son of Jack Straw, a former Labour foreign minister.
    They set up in an open-plan office space in London’s financial district, with room for about 50 people. Joining Oliver and Straw were Ryan Coetzee and James McGrory, a couple of battle-hardened former aides for the Liberal Democrats, and a host of junior Labour special advisers."
    Will Straw = lost GE campaign for a seat.
    Ryan = lost most of the LD MPs their seats.
    "It was an all-star lineup "!!!!!!!!
    But also note the refusal of Corbyn to share a platform with Cameron, even after Brown pleaded.

    Labour: get rid of this idiot!
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
    They will hold a referendum on principle, which they will likely win. Worry about the implications and how to implement it later. Very much the same idea as Leave.
    You think? Last time we were presented with the total fantasy land of the SNP White Paper which explained how rich we were going to be and significant numbers chose to believe it (demonstrating the deficiencies of Scottish education better than most things).

    This time we would be asked to vote for what? A principle? Not going to happen. Ruth would have a field day.
    Go on STV Player and watch the interview with Adam Tomkins. Even the most staunchest of BritNat Tories are not fully committed to No second referendum. Ruth will struggle to have a field day when she is lacking much support even from her own party.

    I guess she can rope in the funny handshake brigade but I'm not sure how well that will play out with civic Scotland.
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    Now if they had done a better job representing UK interests in Brussels , may be they would not be facing the sack?
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95280980-3a19-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/world_uk_politics/feed//product#axzz4Cby4ug41
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    murali_s said:

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    Indeed. Especially when the mood from the Leave camp is "Oh shit, we've won - now what do we do? We haven't got a clue so let's keep the status quo!"
    Didn't Leave bang on about returning the full sovereignty of Parliament? Time for that to be in action!
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    DavidL said:

    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
    I hope it pans out along the lines you suggest. But it strikes me that you are in a risky situation now.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
    They will hold a referendum on principle, which they will likely win. Worry about the implications and how to implement it later. Very much the same idea as Leave.
    You think? Last time we were presented with the total fantasy land of the SNP White Paper which explained how rich we were going to be and significant numbers chose to believe it (demonstrating the deficiencies of Scottish education better than most things).

    This time we would be asked to vote for what? A principle? Not going to happen. Ruth would have a field day.
    Last time we were presented with the total fantasy land of the SNP White Paper

    Exactly. That's why they won't do it a second time. Keep it vague and dishonest. I'm not suggesting they will do anything different from Vote Leave. It worked for Vote Leave when it didn't work for the SNP the first time. They will have learnt their lesson.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    DavidL said:

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    I am not saying there will not be a second referendum. I am saying that Nicola needs to be very sure that she can offer Scotland unlimited and unrestricted access to its most important market before it happens. That depends on the deal between the UK and the EU. Without this access independence would be economic suicide.
    So you are basically praying for the UK to suffer economic collapse? Because without serious consequences, this sort of fear tactic (which is not true anyway, IMO) will not work in the second referendum. At the moment, there isn't nearly enough market turmoil to support the idea that the warnings about Brexit were remotely plausible.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    Build a wall and Sturgeon will pay for it. Yeah.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,040

    To all the leavers on this forum I wish to announce that I have been converted to the cause.
    [snip...]
    I never thought I would get so annoyed but glad I have been able to get it off my chest

    So you used to be REMAIN because you didn't want the UK to LEAVE
    And you voted REMAIN because you didn't want the UK to LEAVE
    Then the UK voted to LEAVE, but you still wanted to REMAIN
    Then the UK was asked to LEAVE, so now you want to LEAVE by REMAINing as long as possible
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    murali_s said:

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    Indeed. Especially when the mood from the Leave camp is "Oh shit, we've won - now what do we do? We haven't got a clue so let's keep the status quo!"
    Didn't Leave bang on about returning the full sovereignty of Parliament? Time for that to be in action!
    We need to head out the EU, the British public for better or ill have spoken. Now we can be outside the EU with free movement, perhaps a fee to access the common market - maybe certain EU laws relating to trade we'll agree to abide by... - but we can't be in the EU.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    surbiton said:

    weejonnie said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't Cameron refer to these in his resignation speech ?
    Well sturgeon is hamstrung isn't she - having made a real song and dance about Scotland should stay in having voted to do so - when the same argument - 10 times as large would be made about England and Wales.
    I don't think she will say that E&W have to stay in as well !
    so with no Scotland London will be even more beholden to the shires.

  • Options

    PlatoSaid said:
    Thanks Plato - interesting stuff to add to the articles in Sun and Mail today.

    "The Stronger In campaign was led by Oliver, the former BBC editor who ran Cameron’s communications team, and Will Straw, a highly-regarded Labour policy expert and son of Jack Straw, a former Labour foreign minister.
    They set up in an open-plan office space in London’s financial district, with room for about 50 people. Joining Oliver and Straw were Ryan Coetzee and James McGrory, a couple of battle-hardened former aides for the Liberal Democrats, and a host of junior Labour special advisers."
    Will Straw = lost GE campaign for a seat.
    Ryan = lost most of the LD MPs their seats.
    "It was an all-star lineup "!!!!!!!!
    But also note the refusal of Corbyn to share a platform with Cameron, even after Brown pleaded.
    Labour: get rid of this idiot!
    That does not explain the decision to have Cameron and Osborne front most of the announcements. It should have been Labour people.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314
    DavidL said:


    This time we would be asked to vote for what? A principle? Not going to happen. Ruth would have a field day.

    Of course she would.

    'Come on fellow Jocks, I know I said EU membership was TERRIBLY important, but we have to move on and accept that our future lies with Westminster. Don't worry that I'm currently in the process of detaching the SCons from PM Boris and the Conservative party, that's a mere technicality.'
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    If Scotland would rather be a region of a federal EU subservient to Brussels rather than a country within the UK in partnership with London; rather use the euro than the pound; and rather be in the Schengen area than the CTA - then I wish them the very best.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    stjohn said:

    DavidL said:

    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
    I hope it pans out along the lines you suggest. But it strikes me that you are in a risky situation now.
    It is risky but it will always be risky whilst the SNP is completely dominant in Scottish politics and I really don't see that changing any time soon. Life has to go on.

    What the SNP should really be doing is focussing like a laser on getting our economy into a sustainable state but all Scottish politicians are absolutely obsessed with constitutional issues to the exclusion of almost all else and have been for more than 30 years now. Unfortunately I don't see that changing either.
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    If Scotland would rather be a region of a federal EU subservient to Brussels rather than a country within the UK in partnership with London; rather use the euro than the pound; and rather be in the Schengen area than the CTA - then I wish them the very best.
    You do realise that your particular view of what the EU is and how the EU works may not be shared by others? It's certainly not shared by at least 62% of Scots.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Interesting words from Merkel. "We have to respect the British people's decision. They want to leave the EU and the Single Market".
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Dear Remaniacs

    You lost, this is what happens sometimes in a Democracy.

    Your votes were not and are not worth more than a Brexiteer's and again if you didn't bother to vote but now wish you did, sorry, but that is how Democracy works.

    The white working class in the North felt unloved and unlistened to, Soubry etal, if you political elites had listened rather than ignoring people things might have gone differently.

    Bet Labour wished they hadn't decided to .... how did they put it? rub the rights noses in diversity? The Karma to find that Labour voters actually revolted in droves.

    Forget your petition for a second referendum.

    Otherwise there might need to be a 3rd and a 4th..........

    The sky will not fall in, Scott will still cut and paste ad nauseam and the world will go on.

    With added curved bananas :-)

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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,048
    edited June 2016
    So the week ends with the victorious LEAVE side pleading with Europe not to be made say they want to LEAVE the Nazi concentration camp that is the EU. Oh, and they want to keep free movement of labour too.
    Preposterous sh*tshow.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    EPG said:

    So the week ends with the victorious LEAVE side pleading with Europe not to be made say they want to LEAVE the Nazi concentration camp that is the EU. Oh, and they want to keep free movement of labour too.
    Preposterous sh*tshow.

    Yes. Cowards !
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Seriously, she's even more awful every day

    Soubry blames EU loss on 'white working class' who have 'probably never even seen a migrant' | Nottingham Post https://t.co/GTaepwbiLL wtf

    I was wishing NickP won at GE2015 as I thought there was little policy difference and NickP is a nicer human being.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    One almost wants them to try it, but our better angels hope they don't.
    I would love Labour mp's to try this shit.

    Wipe out in Wales, the North and Midlands for starters.

    How will they like them apples?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,048

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    If Scotland would rather be a region of a federal EU subservient to Brussels rather than a country within the UK in partnership with London; rather use the euro than the pound; and rather be in the Schengen area than the CTA - then I wish them the very best.
    Outside the EU, Scotland will be subservient to parochial English who gave Cameron a majority because they were angried up about uppity Scots.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ouch

    Douglas Carswell
    Brexit is going to be a process. It will be overseen by serious people, with a serious plan. Gove, Hannan, Grayling. https://t.co/wtmuXeBMzp
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    If Scotland would rather be a region of a federal EU subservient to Brussels rather than a country within the UK in partnership with London; rather use the euro than the pound; and rather be in the Schengen area than the CTA - then I wish them the very best.
    You do realise that your particular view of what the EU is and how the EU works may not be shared by others? It's certainly not shared by at least 62% of Scots.
    They may not share it, but the destination of the EU Project has never been in doubt to anyone who has ever paid the slightest attention.

    As I say, if Scotland wants to sign up to the Project, I wish it good luck.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brian Klass
    #Brexit turnout data for young people.

    18-24: 36%
    25-34: 58%

    Turnout total: 72%

    Elections are won by those that show up.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    Politicians tried ignoring the wishes of voters, look where it got them.

    Just try Lammy, just try.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416

    DavidL said:


    This time we would be asked to vote for what? A principle? Not going to happen. Ruth would have a field day.

    Of course she would.

    'Come on fellow Jocks, I know I said EU membership was TERRIBLY important, but we have to move on and accept that our future lies with Westminster. Don't worry that I'm currently in the process of detaching the SCons from PM Boris and the Conservative party, that's a mere technicality.'
    Not sure speech writing is really your forte. Good try though.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    The second referendum petition is going to pass 2 million signatures shortly.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    theakes said:

    In my very humble and respectful opinion I think there could be grounds for a court case against the result. Only grounds, just a prima facie case.

    Interesting to know on what grounds?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051

    PlatoSaid said:

    Seriously, she's even more awful every day

    Soubry blames EU loss on 'white working class' who have 'probably never even seen a migrant' | Nottingham Post https://t.co/GTaepwbiLL wtf

    I was wishing NickP won at GE2015 as I thought there was little policy difference and NickP is a nicer human being.
    Nick P is an exceptionally kind,gentle and compassionate human being
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Floater said:

    Wipe out in Wales,

    Speaking of which, Michael O'Neil is a remarkable manager.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    EPG said:

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    If Scotland would rather be a region of a federal EU subservient to Brussels rather than a country within the UK in partnership with London; rather use the euro than the pound; and rather be in the Schengen area than the CTA - then I wish them the very best.
    Outside the EU, Scotland will be subservient to parochial English who gave Cameron a majority because they were angried up about uppity Scots.
    The English quite rightly rejected the idea of a party that does not have the best interests of the UK at heart forming a key part of the government of the UK. The SNP is not Scotland.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    weejonnie said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't Cameron refer to these in his resignation speech ?
    Well sturgeon is hamstrung isn't she - having made a real song and dance about Scotland should stay in having voted to do so - when the same argument - 10 times as large would be made about England and Wales.
    I don't think she will say that E&W have to stay in as well !
    so with no Scotland London will be even more beholden to the shires.

    The shires are dirt poor. They live on subsidies. We pay the taxes.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    PlatoSaid said:

    Brian Klass
    #Brexit turnout data for young people.

    18-24: 36%
    25-34: 58%

    Turnout total: 72%

    Elections are won by those that show up.

    Bonkers!!
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    I never thought until now that Lammy could under-perform his famous appearance on Mastermind.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,048
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    weejonnie said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't Cameron refer to these in his resignation speech ?
    Well sturgeon is hamstrung isn't she - having made a real song and dance about Scotland should stay in having voted to do so - when the same argument - 10 times as large would be made about England and Wales.
    I don't think she will say that E&W have to stay in as well !
    so with no Scotland London will be even more beholden to the shires.

    The shires are dirt poor. They live on subsidies. We pay the taxes.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html

    There are no words
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    EPG said:

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    If Scotland would rather be a region of a federal EU subservient to Brussels rather than a country within the UK in partnership with London; rather use the euro than the pound; and rather be in the Schengen area than the CTA - then I wish them the very best.
    Outside the EU, Scotland will be subservient to parochial English who gave Cameron a majority because they were angried up about uppity Scots.
    Nuts.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    So how is the Sore Losers "Best of 3" petition going? Are they at 20 million Germans and 10 million French yet?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ouch

    Douglas Carswell
    Brexit is going to be a process. It will be overseen by serious people, with a serious plan. Gove, Hannan, Grayling. https://t.co/wtmuXeBMzp

    They shouldn't exclude Mr Farage. He and UKIP were a big part of getting and winning the referendum.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    Build a wall and Sturgeon will pay for it. Yeah.
    The EU will pay !!
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Floater said:

    This is very dangerous talk.
    "David Lammy has called for a vote in Parliament on whether the UK should leave the EU following Thursday Brexit vote in the referendum. The Labour MP, who campaigned for a Remain vote, posted a statement to Twitter this afternoon saying: “We do not have to do this."

    http://labourlist.org/2016/06/we-can-stop-this-madness-david-lammy-calls-for-parliament-vote-on-brexit/

    One almost wants them to try it, but our better angels hope they don't.
    I would love Labour mp's to try this shit.

    Wipe out in Wales, the North and Midlands for starters.

    How will they like them apples?
    Now if this were the US House, then the Conservatives would ensure all their numbers are lined up by the whip to vote Brexit, then let the vote proceed, let Labour hoist themselves on their own petards, then call a snap election to crucify them.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ouch

    Douglas Carswell
    Brexit is going to be a process. It will be overseen by serious people, with a serious plan. Gove, Hannan, Grayling. https://t.co/wtmuXeBMzp

    How long before the turncoat turns coat again back to the Tories?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Brian Klass
    #Brexit turnout data for young people.

    18-24: 36%
    25-34: 58%

    Turnout total: 72%

    Elections are won by those that show up.

    Bonkers!!
    I do love Twitter at times.
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    "It seems that after every major political event people who have been living in a filtered world find it difficult to believe that their opponents won. Because we’re living in our own filter bubbles."
    http://order-order.com/2016/06/25/social-medias-filter-bubble-driving-anger/
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,048

    EPG said:

    Lowlander said:

    DavidL said:


    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.

    Your posts seem to be becoming more and more detached from reality. At the moment there is Ruth, Kezia (both apparently without much support from their parties) and you refusing to countenance a second referendum.

    The process has already begun, it is very clear from Sturgeon's actions and words so far.
    If Scotland would rather be a region of a federal EU subservient to Brussels rather than a country within the UK in partnership with London; rather use the euro than the pound; and rather be in the Schengen area than the CTA - then I wish them the very best.
    Outside the EU, Scotland will be subservient to parochial English who gave Cameron a majority because they were angried up about uppity Scots.
    The English quite rightly rejected the idea of a party that does not have the best interests of the UK at heart forming a key part of the government of the UK. The SNP is not Scotland.
    See? The English decide what is the UK interest. This is the very definition of subservience.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    stjohn said:

    FPT.

    For David L.

    I think you live in Scotland and you were a Brexit supporter? Are you now advocating a deal that is close to membership of the EU? Or are you simply saying that that is what Sturgeon should hope for to placate her supporters.

    As a Brexiteer how would you feel if the result leads to Scottish independence which Scotland can't afford?

    I do think that we want a close relationship with the EU including membership of the single market but we must have the ability to control the level of immigration from the EU.

    The point I was making on the previous thread was that for Scotland a single market with rUK is not desirable but absolutely critical. When the UK was inside the EU separation from rUK did not risk that as long as Scotland was allowed to jump the queue for EU membership which was likely. Now the risks are much greater.

    If the UK ends up with 5% tariffs because the EU will not give unrestricted services access and Scotland leaves to rejoin the EU we then have a tariff barrier with all the bureaucratic consequences of that for intra UK trade. Add in the likelihood that Scotland would probably have to adopt the Euro and you have currency risk as well.

    I think the SNP have gamed this and know it is a completely non viable and unwinnable proposition. That is why they campaigned for remain. It made independence much easier than it is going to be now. So Nicola will want to ensure that the UK has single market access so an independent Scotland would have that access with rUK. Anything else is a non starter.
    They will hold a referendum on principle, which they will likely win. Worry about the implications and how to implement it later. Very much the same idea as Leave.
    You think? Last time we were presented with the total fantasy land of the SNP White Paper which explained how rich we were going to be and significant numbers chose to believe it (demonstrating the deficiencies of Scottish education better than most things).

    This time we would be asked to vote for what? A principle? Not going to happen. Ruth would have a field day.
    Ruth's going to be busy spinning lots of plates.
    Defend the Union.
    Making sure Bojo is not PM.
    Reunite the tory party.
    Provide efective opposition in Holyrood.

    Watch her age.
This discussion has been closed.