Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
If Leave and Remain are within 10k, then the result will be challenged (whoever wins).
Remain would certainly have bought it with £9m of taxpayers money. They would have lost any moral authority over the result. Without moral authority, there is no political authority either.
The 9milion was wrong, but people have had ample opportunity to hear rebuttals of all remain points - if remain still wins the only people to blame are the voters., particularly given the lies told on all sides.
A large part of the £9million was actually spent on online adverts.
The polling would suggest they just burned £9m of taxpayers money in a vanity bonfire....
I certainly never received my paper copy of the document. Nor the electoral commission one.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Exactly right. One side exaggerates a bit, the other offers a series of absurd Armageddon forecasts. Not too close, is it?
The difference is one of tense.
If I were to state that it will rain tomorrow, the worst that I could be accused of is an unjustified prediction. Nobody knows for sure what the weather will be like tomorrow because it lies in the future. If, on the other hand, I were to state that it rained yesterday when everybody knows that the sun shone, that would be a lie. It was a past event. We know for sure what happened yesterday.
Similarly, predictions of major economic impacts (not Armageddon - you exaggerate) cannot be lies. They are no more lies than Leave's claims that things will continue pretty much as normal. They refer to future events. The very worst that they can be is unjustified predictions.
On the other hand, Leave's claim that we give £350m a week to the EU is a flat lie. We don't. This is a matter of record and cannot be disputed. Leave are simply lying. That's the difference.
If you think that the govt's appraoch, on behalf of Remain, has been balanced and proportionate, you are entitled to that opinion, and I won't try to change it. Many more people think they have been 'sacremongering'. They have attempted a series of increasingly exaggerated and unbelieveable claims. Its current nadir is the 'Brexit emergency budget', that Osborne knew perfectly well would never be presented to the HoC.
Leave have been just as ridiculous, gangs of sex crazed migrants rampaging through English towns, the Turkey bullshit, 350 million, going to reduce immigration, IDS resigning for ethical reasons(probably the most ludicrous claim in the whole debate) .
The Gibraltar thing has probably been in the calendar for a couple of months since he expected to cruise it by 20%. It was likely intended to a statesman like jaunt in the sunshine, showing some intra EU co-operation.
I imagine he didn't want to look panicked by cancelling it
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Maybe he just likes being amongst friends - cf Kinnock at the 1992 Sheffield Rally.
Cameron had to leave the country to find a friendly crowd to speak to.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Also true. Also helps to create a visual / psychological link between Remain and patriotism. A bit of heart.
No one can doubt that Gibraltarians are patriotic.
No doubt - but it is funny that they want to vote for the side whose victory would mean that it is more likely they will be handed over to Spain.
They're worried that a Leave vote will result in sanctions, possibly even an invasion by Spain.
Cameron lost it the fay he put a very orominent MEP up against the wall and verbally and physically abused him when the MEP said he was on the Leave side. That individual at that point lost all respect for DC as did a lot if my friends and colleagues when they heard about it. There will be many at the higher echelons of the Tory party pleased ti see him and what he stands for go wven though it may be to the long term detriment of the party. Bullying lies at the heart of this govt and it needs to be stamped out now.
You know bullying at the heart of government Wont go away just because Cameron will go, right?
Your go me that many want him and what he stands for gone even if it is to the party's detriment highlights the trouble the party is in. It'd be one thing if they thought prospects would improve, but not all do.
Even Corbynite labour is starting to look viable as clearly any coming together from the Tories will be a lie. A lie like how well Blair and brown got along.
Where the hell is Farron? I would hope the LDs have plans to take advantage of this mess. Whether they have resources to do it, to be heard, is another matter.
The LDs should be ideally placed to take advantage of post-Brexit chaos if they can get themselves organised. They are a natural home for pro-EU right-wing Labour and left-wing Tory defectors, and they are a unified (though small) force.
Having sat opened mouthed watching it unfold, then sat with a growing grin on my face reading how badly it backfired I've reached the following conclusions about yesterday's punishment budget:
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
I'm voting to Leave.
A superb post. And one that genuinely challenges me personally.
For those following my red wine antics last night, I confessed to my wife in the sobriety of the morning. The sofa looks a complete state, and I couldn't pin the blame on the dog. I am now in the doghouse and may well have compromised a free afternoon pass to the pub to watch the match.
Having sat opened mouthed watching it unfold, then sat with a growing grin on my face reading how badly it backfired I've reached the following conclusions about yesterday's punishment budget:
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
I'm voting to Leave.
Well done, Rochdale. That can't have been easy for you.
I really don't see how remain win from here. There will be nervous switching as people contemplate the price of a leave vote, I'm not going to deny feeling that pressure myself, but remain seem entirely reliant on that happening, for it yo be very. Ig, and for all of them to switch from remain to keave, not just remain to not vote.
Does that seem credible? Granted, it's similar to my reading of why it was unlikely all the polls were wrong at the GE, but there's nothing left for remain to pitch, so they can only hope the economic fears will hit home at last.
Don't waste PB time by replying that it's all a pack of lies written by a metropolitan elite who have a vested interest in sucking up to big business. Just ignore the link if you feel like that.
Hey some facts at last:
The transfers to the EU are not equivalent to £350m a week. That’s a figure often cited by the Leave campaign ahead of the 23 June referendum on membership. But the number has been discredited by the UK Statistics Authority.
So is a bill equivalent to £8.5bn a year worth it?
It certainly hasn’t damaged Britain’s economy. In fact, since the UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973, Britain has done relatively well, outperforming the EU’s largest economies, Germany, France and Italy – and the US.
Britain's EU membership has been a good period for the economy.
Only if you're entirely ignorant of British history. After Britain joined the EEC we had six more years of strife ending in a winter of discontent. How did the EEC prevent that? If the EEC was the prime mover of our growth then the winter of discontent must not have happened afterall right?
Cameron lost it the fay he put a very orominent MEP up against the wall and verbally and physically abused him when the MEP said he was on the Leave side. That individual at that point lost all respect for DC as did a lot if my friends and colleagues when they heard about it. There will be many at the higher echelons of the Tory party pleased ti see him and what he stands for go wven though it may be to the long term detriment of the party. Bullying lies at the heart of this govt and it needs to be stamped out now.
You know bullying at the heart of government Wont go away just because Cameron will go, right?
Your go me that many want him and what he stands for gone even if it is to the party's detriment highlights the trouble the party is in. It'd be one thing if they thought prospects would improve, but not all do.
Even Corbynite labour is starting to look viable as clearly any coming together from the Tories will be a lie. A lie like how well Blair and brown got along.
Where the hell is Farron? I would hope the LDs have plans to take advantage of this mess. Whether they have resources to do it, to be heard, is another matter.
The LDs should be ideally placed to take advantage of post-Brexit chaos if they can get themselves organised. They are a natural home for pro-EU right-wing Labour and left-wing Tory defectors, and they are a unified (though small) force.
Problem being no mo is going to defect, and if they did en made the party might not like it as they would alter its nature and dominate, and the public may be wary of switching back to them when so few prominent figures will back them.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Exactly right. One side exaggerates a bit, the other offers a series of absurd Armageddon forecasts. Not too close, is it?
The difference is one of tense.
If I were to state that it will rain tomorrow, the worst that I could be accused of is an unjustified prediction. Nobody knows for sure what the weather will be like tomorrow because it lies in the future. If, on the other hand, I were to state that it rained yesterday when everybody knows that the sun shone, that would be a lie. It was a past event. We know for sure what happened yesterday.
Similarly, predictions of major economic impacts (not Armageddon - you exaggerate) cannot be lies. They are no more lies than Leave's claims that things will continue pretty much as normal. They refer to future events. The very worst that they can be is unjustified predictions.
On the other hand, Leave's claim that we give £350m a week to the EU is a flat lie. We don't. This is a matter of record and cannot be disputed. Leave are simply lying. That's the difference.
If you think that the govt's appraoch, on behalf of Remain, has been balanced and proportionate, you are entitled to that opinion, and I won't try to change it. Many more people think they have been 'sacremongering'. They have attempted a series of increasingly exaggerated and unbelieveable claims. Its current nadir is the 'Brexit emergency budget', that Osborne knew perfectly well would never be presented to the HoC.
Leave have been just as ridiculous, gangs of sex crazed migrants rampaging through English towns, the Turkey bullshit, 350 million, going to reduce immigration, IDS resigning for ethical reasons(probably the most ludicrous claim in the whole debate) .
Shouldn't the ethical bar be higher for HM govt?
No. It should be the same for both sides. Particularly since Leave are trying to depose Dave. And IDS was a minister in HM govt was he not, as is Gove.
Sorry, you did that. But our voters, in the short term, at least, will be hurt the most. Expect unemployment to begin to rise as Britain becomes increasingly uncompetitive.
I am a member of the Labour party since 1981. Only between 2003 and 2007,I was not a member.
I've been in since 1997. But when you left the party I was on strike after Iraq....
Its been a really difficult one. I 100% support Europe as a concept, but think the post Maastricht EU project has been a disaster. We need to role the clock back, go back to being a looser trading block and drop the superstate bit.
Its easy to say people are voting against their own best interests. But for the millions who are in work and that job is low pay no security poor conditions, or the millions more who can only aspire to that - thanks to lack of childcare or public transport or the basic fact that minimum wage doesn't pay the bills and 100 people apply for any job thats going - there is little to lose.
Nor are there signs it will get better if we stay. The Tories have done their best to screw them. But the EU isn't protecting them either, they mandate the screwing and half of Europe gets it worse than we do. Nor can we say Labour will protect them - the reason why we have lost so much support in the midlands and the north and south wales and Scotland is because we didn't do enough to materially improve their lives and opportunities. Take your voters for granted and worse patronise them, and they are no longer your voters.
Also, an excellent article by Alistair. We have known for some time that there is much more common ground with pro European, LD, and Tory MP's than there is with the extremes of the both major parties and their membership. This is unsustainable whatever happens on the 23rd.
I have a hysterical Remainer friend giving it to me with both barrels on Facebook today. It was in response to a Leave post I put up yesterday. He is promising me social unrest and the collapse of the economy if we don't Remain.
He doesn't seem to be engaging with a single one of my arguments, at all, he just wants me to vote Remain!
I politely told him there'd be more chance of getting Margaret Thatcher to lead a rendition of the Red Flag, but still the rants keep coming.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
If Leave and Remain are within 10k, then the result will be challenged (whoever wins).
Remain would certainly have bought it with £9m of taxpayers money. They would have lost any moral authority over the result. Without moral authority, there is no political authority either.
The 9milion was wrong, but people have had ample opportunity to hear rebuttals of all remain points - if remain still wins the only people to blame are the voters., particularly given the lies told on all sides.
A large part of the £9million was actually spent on online adverts.
The polling would suggest they just burned £9m of taxpayers money in a vanity bonfire....
I certainly never received my paper copy of the document. Nor the electoral commission one.
The sad thing about that is that if he had shown some decorum Cameron could have steered the ship through to the autumn.
By his vile words and actions he has condemned himself.
Quite - all totally unnecessary self-harm. I still don't understand it.
He knew it would be close. He knew if he lost he would be toast. He wasn't willing to sit back and hope others won it for him, he felt if his premiership was at stake he had to do something. So he decided to go scorched earth.
It makes total sense. It might well be based on faulty assumptions, but viewed as the actions of a man who feared he might lose, his unwillingness to essentially sit things out and his decision to go at it very hard instead are quite rational even if they were wrong.
I can only think that Cameron was led astray but Osborne in particular. They saw how project fear worked in Scotland's referendum and decided to duplicate that in this referendum. A PM that selects such bad advisors and is easily led astray is a bad Leader.
As Alistair Meeks says, when you're performing karaoke, you have to belt it out with conviction. But, he would have done better to follow Lynton Crosby's advice. Walk away from the negotiations, before resuming them later.
This is what usually happens in negotiations when there is a long timetable. If only Cameron had invested a little time in learning about negotiations, he could have saved himself and Osborne. That also applies to Osborne who flew around the capitals of the EU members "negotiating"....
Also, an excellent article by Alistair. We have known for some time that there is much more common ground with pro European, LD, and Tory MP's than there is with the extremes of the both major parties and their membership. This is unsustainable whatever happens on the 23rd.
Has been said before and will be said again. I'll believe its unsustainable when something finally happens, not before, as party tribalism, beyond all reason, seems so powerful it might as well be a universal force of nature on par with gravity.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Also true. Also helps to create a visual / psychological link between Remain and patriotism. A bit of heart.
No one can doubt that Gibraltarians are patriotic.
No doubt - but it is funny that they want to vote for the side whose victory would mean that it is more likely they will be handed over to Spain.
They're worried that a Leave vote will result in sanctions, possibly even an invasion by Spain.
If we LEAVE the leverage we have on Spain as a result of our joint membership of the EU will be lost and the EU will choose to side with Spain - I wouldn't be at all surprised if Spain try something on.....
Excellent article, Alastair. Where will it lead? To a right-wing Strong Man and the suspension of the Rule of Law. Which three Peebies out of four will cheer to the rafters.
There are a variety of oddballs on this site but you really are in a class of your own. I suggest that you don't forget to take your meds.
This time next week Cameron will be writing his resignation letter, which is what he deserves, after that wretched renegotiation and that ridiculous deal. What a decline and fall. Incredible.
Sorry, you did that. But our voters, in the short term, at least, will be hurt the most. Expect unemployment to begin to rise as Britain becomes increasingly uncompetitive.
I am a member of the Labour party since 1981. Only between 2003 and 2007,I was not a member.
I've been in since 1997. But when you left the party I was on strike after Iraq....
Its been a really difficult one. I 100% support Europe as a concept, but think the post Maastricht EU project has been a disaster. We need to role the clock back, go back to being a looser trading block and drop the superstate bit.
Its easy to say people are voting against their own best interests. But for the millions who are in work and that job is low pay no security poor conditions, or the millions more who can only aspire to that - thanks to lack of childcare or public transport or the basic fact that minimum wage doesn't pay the bills and 100 people apply for any job thats going - there is little to lose.
Nor are there signs it will get better if we stay. The Tories have done their best to screw them. But the EU isn't protecting them either, they mandate the screwing and half of Europe gets it worse than we do. Nor can we say Labour will protect them - the reason why we have lost so much support in the midlands and the north and south wales and Scotland is because we didn't do enough to materially improve their lives and opportunities. Take your voters for granted and worse patronise them, and they are no longer your voters.
Essentially, you're making the argument that Kelvin Hopkins was making on Tuesday night.
This time next week Cameron will be writing his resignation letter, which is what he deserves, after that wretched renegotiation and that ridiculous deal. What a decline and fall. Incredible.
It is most certainly NOT over.
How do remain overturn the sorts of leads leave is getting? Last minute bottling alone wont do it, apparently hoping people likely to turnout to be different than headline won't do it, there's no new arguments to make to convince people.
So the only hope is the polls are wrong. Possible, but they could be wrong the other way too.
That Standard poll is absolutely massive. Not only is the swing remarkable, the other questions are astonishing. Especially the fact that only 17% believe the £4,300 figure compared to 70% that think it is a lie. Going too big too fast was probably Remain's biggest mistake, as if something is so unbelievable that people have to think about it (& conclude that it is a lie) then they'll consider all of the rest of your statements much more closely.
A noble decision. By comparison mine is far more selfish and shallow. I'm voting no because I believe in British sovereignty, but mainly because I've waited 41 years to take my revenge on the politicians who "dissed" me then by brazenly lying to me. I suspect many other old gits nurse that grievance too.
I'm sure the politicians hoped we'd have forgotten.
This time next week Cameron will be writing his resignation letter, which is what he deserves, after that wretched renegotiation and that ridiculous deal. What a decline and fall. Incredible.
That Standard poll is absolutely massive. Not only is the swing remarkable, the other questions are astonishing. Especially the fact that only 17% believe the £4,300 figure compared to 70% that think it is a lie. Going too big too fast was probably Remain's biggest mistake, as if something is so unbelievable that people have to think about it (& conclude that it is a lie) then they'll consider all of the rest of your statements much more closely.
We've had months and month of 'Project fear'. People didn't buy it then, and didn't buy it now. Osborne was an almighty idiot, and he'll pay the price for it.
Mori People tend to believe the £350 million a week claim #EUref - helps explain LEAVE lead https://t.co/VveRMAMbV3
I FULLY believe the £350million claim, because it came from the pink book, which details all receipts to European Union institutions. Remain cleverly made this about FEES and got the civil service robots to say their's was the accurate figure. But a lot of what we send to the EU is likely to be outside of FEES - I found over a billion pounds (in 2014, 2015 likely to be higher) given directly to EU coffers from the aid budget just by googling. This probably was in the pink book, but not in Remain's calculation of the FEES.
So my response to Remain wingeing about people believing this figure is tough tits quite frankly - boohoo people are believing someone else's flawed statistics not yours.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Also true. Also helps to create a visual / psychological link between Remain and patriotism. A bit of heart.
No one can doubt that Gibraltarians are patriotic.
No doubt - but it is funny that they want to vote for the side whose victory would mean that it is more likely they will be handed over to Spain.
They're worried that a Leave vote will result in sanctions, possibly even an invasion by Spain.
I see - so the Gibraltarians are frit - how sad that such a notable part of the UK should come to this.
Going into the final week I think it's fair to suggest that Remain are in the shite.
Cameron started this by saying he would negotiate a good deal for Britain.
With Brexit looking a distinct possibility, perhaps Juncker, Merkel, Schultz and co will be willing to offer some goodies in a last ditch negotiation next week.
Perhaps this is what the 'whingeing', clued-up Brits are angling for?
I really don't see how remain win from here. There will be nervous switching as people contemplate the price of a leave vote, I'm not going to deny feeling that pressure myself, but remain seem entirely reliant on that happening, for it yo be very. Ig, and for all of them to switch from remain to keave, not just remain to not vote.
Does that seem credible? Granted, it's similar to my reading of why it was unlikely all the polls were wrong at the GE, but there's nothing left for remain to pitch, so they can only hope the economic fears will hit home at last.
From what I've seen I'm amazed Remain is even at 47 percent. I doubt the polls are currently wrong, BUT i do suspect that as polling day approaches and people actually consider what Brexit COULD mean economically that there will be some swing to Remain. As others have said Scotland and Quebec support this.
Regarding swingback to Remain, of course it's possible and it's the reason Leave isn't nailed on. But that degree of swingback is asking a lot. I wouldn't back Remain at shorter than 3/1 now.
Bloody hell. I've always believed that Leave needed a lead of 10% to win (due to an insane level of bottling due to PF).
However that lead combined with the other questions indicating high levels of distrust with Remain makes me think that we may have actually won this. Somehow.
Mr. Mark, people think Remain is the status quo. I do think things will shift Remain's way come polling day. The question is whether that's enough.
I'll also be interested to see if we get record turnout in Tower Hamlets...
Leave have been making the point that there is no status quo in this Referendum - its Out, or bound tightly In forever. It may be that is getting some traction now.
This time next week Cameron will be writing his resignation letter, which is what he deserves, after that wretched renegotiation and that ridiculous deal. What a decline and fall. Incredible.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Also true. Also helps to create a visual / psychological link between Remain and patriotism. A bit of heart.
No one can doubt that Gibraltarians are patriotic.
No doubt - but it is funny that they want to vote for the side whose victory would mean that it is more likely they will be handed over to Spain.
They're worried that a Leave vote will result in sanctions, possibly even an invasion by Spain.
I see - so the Gibraltarians are frit - how sad that such a notable part of the UK should come to this.
I don't blame them, but it's funny that even in the sunny climbs of Gibraltar, the Remain case is based on fear. There really isn't a single enclave of Britain that LIKES the EU. Even Scotland doesn't by and large. It just dislikes what they've made 'Farage' into.
This time next week Cameron will be writing his resignation letter, which is what he deserves, after that wretched renegotiation and that ridiculous deal. What a decline and fall. Incredible.
I really don't see how remain win from here. There will be nervous switching as people contemplate the price of a leave vote, I'm not going to deny feeling that pressure myself, but remain seem entirely reliant on that happening, for it yo be very. Ig, and for all of them to switch from remain to keave, not just remain to not vote.
Does that seem credible? Granted, it's similar to my reading of why it was unlikely all the polls were wrong at the GE, but there's nothing left for remain to pitch, so they can only hope the economic fears will hit home at last.
From what I've seen I'm amazed Remain is even at 47 percent. I doubt the polls are currently wrong, BUT i do suspect that as polling day approaches and people actually consider what Brexit COULD mean economically that there will be some swing to Remain. As others have said Scotland and Quebec support this.
Yes, and needs to be a massive swing too, I just cannot see it. Now I just have to make sure my own nerve does not fail.
I really don't see how remain win from here. There will be nervous switching as people contemplate the price of a leave vote, I'm not going to deny feeling that pressure myself, but remain seem entirely reliant on that happening, for it yo be very. Ig, and for all of them to switch from remain to keave, not just remain to not vote.
Does that seem credible? Granted, it's similar to my reading of why it was unlikely all the polls were wrong at the GE, but there's nothing left for remain to pitch, so they can only hope the economic fears will hit home at last.
From what I've seen I'm amazed Remain is even at 47 percent. I doubt the polls are currently wrong, BUT i do suspect that as polling day approaches and people actually consider what Brexit COULD mean economically that there will be some swing to Remain. As others have said Scotland and Quebec support this.
Of course we could have this all backwards. Scotland and Quebec weren't countries, the UK is. It's just possible that swing voters could see voting for the UK as voting for their country in a way that was never the same with those provinces.
This time next week Cameron will be writing his resignation letter, which is what he deserves, after that wretched renegotiation and that ridiculous deal. What a decline and fall. Incredible.
I think the black swan was on every front page yesterday morning...
Comments
I imagine he didn't want to look panicked by cancelling it
There are a lot of people out there trying to make serious money from this. Not all are reputable.
Leave 53% (+10)
Remain 47% (-10)
Toby Young @toadmeister
Ipsos MORI poll in @standardnews: Leave 53 (+10), Remain 47 (-10) (previous poll one month ago).
For those following my red wine antics last night, I confessed to my wife in the sobriety of the morning. The sofa looks a complete state, and I couldn't pin the blame on the dog. I am now in the doghouse and may well have compromised a free afternoon pass to the pub to watch the match.
Does that seem credible? Granted, it's similar to my reading of why it was unlikely all the polls were wrong at the GE, but there's nothing left for remain to pitch, so they can only hope the economic fears will hit home at last.
Leave have a 14% lead among likely voters.
Its been a really difficult one. I 100% support Europe as a concept, but think the post Maastricht EU project has been a disaster. We need to role the clock back, go back to being a looser trading block and drop the superstate bit.
Its easy to say people are voting against their own best interests. But for the millions who are in work and that job is low pay no security poor conditions, or the millions more who can only aspire to that - thanks to lack of childcare or public transport or the basic fact that minimum wage doesn't pay the bills and 100 people apply for any job thats going - there is little to lose.
Nor are there signs it will get better if we stay. The Tories have done their best to screw them. But the EU isn't protecting them either, they mandate the screwing and half of Europe gets it worse than we do. Nor can we say Labour will protect them - the reason why we have lost so much support in the midlands and the north and south wales and Scotland is because we didn't do enough to materially improve their lives and opportunities. Take your voters for granted and worse patronise them, and they are no longer your voters.
He doesn't seem to be engaging with a single one of my arguments, at all, he just wants me to vote Remain!
I politely told him there'd be more chance of getting Margaret Thatcher to lead a rendition of the Red Flag, but still the rants keep coming.
People tend to believe the £350 million a week claim #EUref - helps explain LEAVE lead https://t.co/VveRMAMbV3
Ipsos Mori: only 17% believe Osborne's £4,300 figure
half believe Vote Leave's £350 million figure https://t.co/2zD1UwKNOS
If it breaks that then expect to see a lot of stops taken out.
Remain still have Diane Abbott left to wheel out too.
That said, I am beginning to suspect my prediction of a 60/40 victory for Remain may prove inaccurate.
So the only hope is the polls are wrong. Possible, but they could be wrong the other way too.
They're six points in the lead with Ipsos-MORI and ICM. Seven points in the lead with YouGov.
Leave are doing better than par.
A noble decision. By comparison mine is far more selfish and shallow. I'm voting no because I believe in British sovereignty, but mainly because I've waited 41 years to take my revenge on the politicians who "dissed" me then by brazenly lying to me. I suspect many other old gits nurse that grievance too.
I'm sure the politicians hoped we'd have forgotten.
All other assumptions about how this would play out have been catastrophically wrong. Just saying'.... People like to vote for winners.
I'll also be interested to see if we get record turnout in Tower Hamlets...
So my response to Remain wingeing about people believing this figure is tough tits quite frankly - boohoo people are believing someone else's flawed statistics not yours.
Cameron started this by saying he would negotiate a good deal for Britain.
With Brexit looking a distinct possibility, perhaps Juncker, Merkel, Schultz and co will be willing to offer some goodies in a last ditch negotiation next week.
Perhaps this is what the 'whingeing', clued-up Brits are angling for?
However that lead combined with the other questions indicating high levels of distrust with Remain makes me think that we may have actually won this. Somehow.
But there is always Northern Ireland.