As a Leaver, I will go on the record to say there will be no punishment beatings for any Remainer if Leave wins and I will write to my MP (and anyone else) who advocates it.
George Osborne is the exception.
So, Dave gets to stay if he does as you command? I am not sure that is a tenable position.
The only way Dave comes close to staying on, is if he fires Osborne and replaces him with Gove before Graham Brady gets enough letters to trigger the leadership challenge. That probably means next Friday morning.
Is Labour really as split as the Tories? There is clearly deep frustration about the minimal role played by Corbyn but that is mainly because he is completely useless, not because he has been off message.
The Labour Vote Leave contribution has been very effective but I think it is silly to pretend they are anything other than a very small minority in the PLP, however much their message has resonated in the country.
Labour have the same problem as they had before the referendum: a leader who the membership seem to support very strongly but whom everyone who knows him well in the PLP knows is not fit to be in the cabinet, let alone PM. A change of leader to someone more competent and Labour might be in a much better place. The referendum has caused them minimal damage.
There is a massive opportunity for Labour here but they need to show an uncharacteristic ruthlessness to grab it.
Could not agree more. The Tories will completely own the Leave result and we will have months, if not years, of them fighting each other over the terms of the Brexit deal. A quarter decent opposition would be preparing to walk the next general election. However, that is not the Labour party. For as long as Corbyn is leader it is impossible for them to win. The best that Labour can hope for is that the Tories eat themselves and therefore lose their majority. That. of course, then promises even more instability for an even longer period. This country is going to have an extremely rough time of it for a long period to come. The Brexit deal we finally end up with (if a deal is done at all) better be worth it.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
You are assuming that there is some correlation between the 2. There is a lot more going on in the world economy than UK Brexit and very little of it is good.
That's true enough, although Brexit seems to be getting most of the blame - I certainly find it difficult to understand why, for example, the Japanese are becoming so exercised by it.
As a Leaver, I will go on the record to say there will be no punishment beatings for any Remainer if Leave wins and I will write to my MP (and anyone else) who advocates it.
George Osborne is the exception.
So, Dave gets to stay if he does as you command? I am not sure that is a tenable position.
The only way Dave comes close to staying on, is if he fires Osborne and replaces him with Gove before Graham Brady gets enough letters to trigger the leadership challenge. That probably means next Friday morning.
Dave cannot be in charge if he is not in charge. He is finished.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
You are assuming that there is some correlation between the 2. There is a lot more going on in the world economy than UK Brexit and very little of it is good.
Exactly. Voting Remain doesn't protect you from anything.
It does ensure that the EU continues to have control over our commercial policy and economic regulations, though.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
The idea, as written by a few friendly journalists for Osborne the other night, that Brexit fears had anything to do with the oil price and the worlds stock markets falling by a couple of percent, rather than the other way around, was completely disingenuous. When such obvious bollocks is clearly coming from the Treasury then Osborne's time is up there.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
Nothing will happen constitutionally. But there will be uncertainty, extreme uncertainty. The government will be tearing itself to pieces and the UK's future relationship with the EU will be unknown. That will affect the way investors and the markets view things from the moment the result is announced.
As a Leaver, I will go on the record to say there will be no punishment beatings for any Remainer if Leave wins and I will write to my MP (and anyone else) who advocates it.
George Osborne is the exception.
So, Dave gets to stay if he does as you command? I am not sure that is a tenable position.
thank god there's just a week of this nonsense to go...
how people like IDS will take defeat I hesitate to guess but if Osborne is toast for you Leavers, so is IDS to we remainers I'd suggest in terms of any govt role going forward.
I thought IDS had already fallen on his sword when he resigned from the cabinet
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
Nothing will happen constitutionally. But there will be uncertainty, extreme uncertainty. The government will be tearing itself to pieces and the UK's future relationship with the EU will be unknown. That will affect the way investors and the markets view things from the moment the result is announced.
Is the Remain scenario really any better? I think either way the Pax Cameronia has come to an end. Things were indeed better when the Tories tried hard not to speak about Europe. They won elections that way.
Postal Ballot - for UK Elections its 19 working days (or less) before the election - which takes us to early August - Cameron will have been PM for 5 weeks after the vote, could have invoked Article 50, reshuffled his Cabinet and Osborne presented a budget.
If a week is a long time in politics, 5 weeks is an aeon.....
You are right on the timelines, but the political reality is that if he is being challenged for the leadership he won't have the practical authority to do any of those.
A leader is only a leader so long as he has followers
It could be quite a busy period with quite a few major government decisions to be taken that can't wait.
There will be holding action - probably agreed by all the major candidates for leadership. There are conventions that deal with this sort of thing.
You clearly believe Cameron will be gone in very short order, presumably Osborne also. Do you think this will apply irrespective of the result?
Maybe he could say "I'm going to stand down in the autumn" if he really wants a few more months - and so he isn't leaving immediately after the result.
People need time to calm down and take stock
So did we all. A bit late for that. Cameron & Osborne have been pretty disgraceful. If Leave wins it's over for them.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
You are assuming that there is some correlation between the 2. There is a lot more going on in the world economy than UK Brexit and very little of it is good.
That's true enough, although Brexit seems to be getting most of the blame - I certainly find it difficult to understand why, for example, the Japanese are becoming so exercised by it.
Uncertainty in one of the world's biggest markets is not good for anyone. The Japanese export a lot of stuff to Europe. If the continent's fragile recovery is thrown off course by a Brexit vote, then that is very bad news for Japanese exporters. We live in a very interconnected world these days.
people who airily dismiss Cameron's ruthlessness may be in for a surprise......
I think this misunderstands the mechanism. It won't be anything to do with Cameron. The 1922 will boot him out. Remember, it only needs 15% of Conservative MPs to force a ballot. That's fewer than the 57 rustled up inside an hour yesterday.
If he loses, he's toast.
I think you misunderstand the process - it's not instantaneous:
The Tories’ process for picking a leader is twofold: Conservative MPs narrow the field to two choices, before a postal ballot of the wider membership of the party is conducted.
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which represents Conservative MPs, acts as the returning officer for leadership elections. Graham Brady is currently serving in this post. The Conservative Whip (currently Michael Gove) receives nominations from members of the House of Commons, and the deadline is noon “on a Thursday”.
.
Oh dear Carlotta. It will take less than an hour to signal a vote. If Remain lose Cameron's toast. Sorry that you don't like what I suspect is fact. You can gnash and wail all you like about it. The Tory party are ruthless with failure, and almighty failure this will be.
I'm sorry you don't seem to understand the basics.
Cameron is the Prime Minister.
If Tory MPs wish to replace him as Leader of their party that will take at least five weeks - possibly longer - unless a coronation is arranged.
I can't see either side agreeing on a 'compromise' candidate - can you?
If we vote to Leave, yes. In that case the significant number of Tory MPs with sceptic tendencies who endorsed Remain out of loyalty to Cameron and/or their careers will switch sides because there will be no point continuing as pro-EU in the face of both their instincts and the public's vote.
Out of the 180 declared REMAINers, don't you think there will be at least 30 or so who will do anything to stop a Boris coronation?
Is Labour really as split as the Tories? There is clearly deep frustration about the minimal role played by Corbyn but that is mainly because he is completely useless, not because he has been off message.
The Labour Vote Leave contribution has been very effective but I think it is silly to pretend they are anything other than a very small minority in the PLP, however much their message has resonated in the country.
Labour have the same problem as they had before the referendum: a leader who the membership seem to support very strongly but whom everyone who knows him well in the PLP knows is not fit to be in the cabinet, let alone PM. A change of leader to someone more competent and Labour might be in a much better place. The referendum has caused them minimal damage.
There is a massive opportunity for Labour here but they need to show an uncharacteristic ruthlessness to grab it.
Trouble with Labour's working base is that the aspects of Corbyn's programme that most excite them (e.g. State support of industry and rail renationalisation) are only possible if we do Leave.
So there's a clear logic link between voting/supporting Corbyn and voting for Leave.
Middle class Labour supporters who are more exercised by values/identity politics and internationalism, without anything economic that threatens them other than higher public spending for the public sector and third sector, will be aghast.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
You are assuming that there is some correlation between the 2. There is a lot more going on in the world economy than UK Brexit and very little of it is good.
That's true enough, although Brexit seems to be getting most of the blame - I certainly find it difficult to understand why, for example, the Japanese are becoming so exercised by it.
Uncertainty in one of the world's biggest markets is not good for anyone. The Japanese export a lot of stuff to Europe. If the continent's fragile recovery is thrown off course by a Brexit vote, then that is very bad news for Japanese exporters. We live in a very interconnected world these days.
Got a lot more to do with the precarious state of things in China I suspect.
IMHO Theresa May would be a better choice, she's made a point of keeping her nose clean in the referendum campaign and would command the respect of the whole Parliamentary party.
Anecdote alert.. Was getting a haircut in a barbers in SW london yesterday and asked the hairdresser whatbpeople had been saying to him whilst he has been cutting their hair. Evidently nearly 100%!of people over 65 wanted to remain whereas the opposite was the case fir those between 25-50. Totally counter intuitive to what i thought he was going to say. Some strange stuff going on
Is Labour really as split as the Tories? There is clearly deep frustration about the minimal role played by Corbyn but that is mainly because he is completely useless, not because he has been off message.
The Labour Vote Leave contribution has been very effective but I think it is silly to pretend they are anything other than a very small minority in the PLP, however much their message has resonated in the country.
Labour have the same problem as they had before the referendum: a leader who the membership seem to support very strongly but whom everyone who knows him well in the PLP knows is not fit to be in the cabinet, let alone PM. A change of leader to someone more competent and Labour might be in a much better place. The referendum has caused them minimal damage.
There is a massive opportunity for Labour here but they need to show an uncharacteristic ruthlessness to grab it.
For as long as Corbyn is leader it is impossible for them to win.
I wouldn't be so sure.
If LEAVE win and in 2020 the sunlit uplands (and free Unicorns) have not yet manifested themselves - or indeed things have been a bit rough - who are the public going to punish?
Labour who argued REMAIN, or a Tory government led by LEAVErs?
Postal Ballot - for UK Elections its 19 working days (or less) before the election - which takes us to early August - Cameron will have been PM for 5 weeks after the vote, could have invoked Article 50, reshuffled his Cabinet and Osborne presented a budget.
If a week is a long time in politics, 5 weeks is an aeon.....
You are right on the timelines, but the political reality is that if he is being challenged for the leadership he won't have the practical authority to do any of those.
A leader is only a leader so long as he has followers
It could be quite a busy period with quite a few major government decisions to be taken that can't wait.
There will be holding action - probably agreed by all the major candidates for leadership. There are conventions that deal with this sort of thing.
You clearly believe Cameron will be gone in very short order, presumably Osborne also. Do you think this will apply irrespective of the result?
Maybe he could say "I'm going to stand down in the autumn" if he really wants a few more months - and so he isn't leaving immediately after the result.
People need time to calm down and take stock
So did we all. A bit late for that. Cameron & Osborne have been pretty disgraceful. If Leave wins it's over for them.
I'm not seeing any claps for Osborne - anywhere, it's all WTF/Go!!! Cameron's getting a lot of Go!! and I Used To Rate/Like You/No More.
Remain - Frances O’Grady, leader of the TUC, Ruth Davidson and Sadiq Khan
Leave - Boris Johnson, Gisela Stuart, and former CBI chief Lord Digby Jones
Excellent. Ruth Davidson will impress, and is probably the best Remainer they could pick. Sadiq may be effective at cutting across to Labourites, but it might be to late.
It looks like Remain and Leave agreed through the BBC to trade Ruth for Digby Jones, rather than Tim Martin, who'd have been a disaster.
Boris needs to train hard day-in, day-out. He wasn't brilliant against Salmond this week and this one on Tuesday is massive.
It will be interesting to see what Ruth is like when not campaigning for the Ruth Davidson for Second Place party. A referendum being involved does put her on firmer ground.
IMHO Theresa May would be a better choice, she's made a point of keeping her nose clean in the referendum campaign and would command the respect of the whole Parliamentary party.
She might but I think she has hacked off the Leavers somewhat by being rather cowardly. She clearly wants us to Leave but bottled it.
Wasn't Lord Alec Douglas-Home PM whilst in the Lord's? (Racing to check my history refs here!)
Just checked that out. Any constitutional experts back me on this? I think William Hague could actually serve as interim PM until the autumn?
Douglas-Home did, albeit for a few weeks while he quickly got himself elected somewhere. And there's a good price on Hague too. But I can't see that having an unelected lord as PM is good for a campaign that's just promised to take back control - even if only until October.
Hammond, perhaps? Not sure he's got any future leadership ambitions, and he's not done too bad a job in the FCO.
people who airily dismiss Cameron's ruthlessness may be in for a surprise......
I think this misunderstands the mechanism. It won't be anything to do with Cameron. The 1922 will boot him out. Remember, it only needs 15% of Conservative MPs to force a ballot. That's fewer than the 57 rustled up inside an hour yesterday.
If he loses, he's toast.
If he loses I don't think he'll even try to stay on, all authority will have gone. Only question is does he go to the palace straight away or fill an interim role till a party election.
The only thing stopping him going straight away is the lack of an obvious caretaker without leadership ambitions. Hague would have been perfect
He doesnt go to the Palace - he is not triggering a GE
He does when he surrenders the seal of office but that won't be until later
Just checked that out. Any constitutional experts back me on this? I think William Hague could actually serve as interim PM until the autumn?
No constitutional problem. The PM doesn't have to be a member of Parliament, they are appointed by the sovereign. Every election parliament prorogues and we have no MPs - the PM is still the PM.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
You are assuming that there is some correlation between the 2. There is a lot more going on in the world economy than UK Brexit and very little of it is good.
Exactly. Voting Remain doesn't protect you from anything.
No, but its going to be easier to blame 'LEAVE' when things go wrong, as that's what will have changed, and we were promised a new hospital a week.
As they say in China shops 'You Break it. You Own it'
IMHO Theresa May would be a better choice, she's made a point of keeping her nose clean in the referendum campaign and would command the respect of the whole Parliamentary party.
But she will be a candidate so she could not hold the interim position. We would need someone who has no ambitions in that direction, not even Jim Hacker style!
It will be interesting to see what Ruth is like when not campaigning for the Ruth Davidson for Second Place party. A referendum being involved does put her on firmer ground.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
Nothing will happen constitutionally. But there will be uncertainty, extreme uncertainty. The government will be tearing itself to pieces and the UK's future relationship with the EU will be unknown. That will affect the way investors and the markets view things from the moment the result is announced.
Is the Remain scenario really any better? I think either way the Pax Cameronia has come to an end. Things were indeed better when the Tories tried hard not to speak about Europe. They won elections that way.
From an investor and market perspective the status quo is clearly preferable to the complete unknown. The turmoil we are about to ignite better be worth it is all I can say. A lot of ordinary punters are about to get very badly burned.
I know that there is a dewy-eyed notion on here that the average person does not have any investments, for example, that these are only for elitist metropolitans and toffs; but the reality is that millions and ,millions of people have pensions that depend on stock market performance. In the same way, although only 6% of UK companies export to Europe, that 6% employ millions of people and generate billions in tax revenues for the Treasury. Any hit to government income will mean more cuts and/or higher rates of tax if the deficit elimination plan that Tory Leavers have unanimously decreed is absolutely essential to our future is to stay on course. Likewise, if that 6% decide to retrench as they await the final Brexit deal that will affect incomes and employment opportunities. And so on.
Fair enough, but I obtained odds 16/1 last July and 12/1 in February this year (and wrote about it here) for him to leave office this year.
***** Smug Face *****
Yes, I remember that prediction, you deserve the smug face. I'm not sure that many on here thought how vindictive the referendum campaign would be for the Tories - I was expecting polite and firm but civil disagreement within the party rather than war, famine and income tax rises being threatened by Nos 10 and 11.
people who airily dismiss Cameron's ruthlessness may be in for a surprise......
I think this misunderstands the mechanism. It won't be anything to do with Cameron. The 1922 will boot him out. Remember, it only needs 15% of Conservative MPs to force a ballot. That's fewer than the 57 rustled up inside an hour yesterday.
If he loses, he's toast.
I think you misunderstand the process - it's not instantaneous:
The Tories’ process for picking a leader is twofold: Conservative MPs narrow the field to two choices, before a postal ballot of the wider membership of the party is conducted.
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which represents Conservative MPs, acts as the returning officer for leadership elections. Graham Brady is currently serving in this post. The Conservative Whip (currently Michael Gove) receives nominations from members of the House of Commons, and the deadline is noon “on a Thursday”.
.
Oh dear Carlotta. It will take less than an hour to signal a vote. If Remain lose Cameron's toast. Sorry that you don't like what I suspect is fact. You can gnash and wail all you like about it. The Tory party are ruthless with failure, and almighty failure this will be.
I'm sorry you don't seem to understand the basics.
Cameron is the Prime Minister.
If Tory MPs wish to replace him as Leader of their party that will take at least five weeks - possibly longer - unless a coronation is arranged.
I can't see either side agreeing on a 'compromise' candidate - can you?
If we vote to Leave, yes. In that case the significant number of Tory MPs with sceptic tendencies who endorsed Remain out of loyalty to Cameron and/or their careers will switch sides because there will be no point continuing as pro-EU in the face of both their instincts and the public's vote.
Out of the 180 declared REMAINers, don't you think there will be at least 30 or so who will do anything to stop a Boris coronation?
If it's a coronation it wouldn't be Boris.
If its a coronation its unlikely to be anyone prominent from either campaign.....
Fair enough, but I obtained odds 16/1 last July and 12/1 in February this year (and wrote about it here) for him to leave office this year.
***** Smug Face *****
Yes, I remember that prediction, you deserve the smug face. I'm not sure that many on here thought how vindictive the referendum campaign would be for the Tories - I was expecting polite and firm but civil disagreement within the party rather than war, famine and income tax rises being threatened by Nos 10 and 11.
Only about 150 MPs are 'out and proud' for Brexit. But most of the remaining MPs will accept the will of the people, if Leave wins. There are many fewer than 150 die-hard and fanatical supporters of the EU in the HoC.
The tory party will close ranks remarkably quickly if Brexit wins. There will be very few casualties in number.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
Counter-intuitively, a vote for Brexit will provide more stable govt.
Just checked that out. Any constitutional experts back me on this? I think William Hague could actually serve as interim PM until the autumn?
But Hague? Why?
I think he's been so far out of this, and so far out of the Commons fray, that he might be the only one who could command respect and steady the ship through to the autumn.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
Southam me old fruit, we're only debating who might work as an interim to take the party through to the autumn. It's roughly 12 weeks, most of which is summer recess.
I think there's a lot to be said for the winners saying on June 24th something along the lines of 'oh look the world's still spinning on its axis, now let's calm down.'
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Postal Ballot - for UK Elections its 19 working days (or less) before the election - which takes us to early August - Cameron will have been PM for 5 weeks after the vote, could have invoked Article 50, reshuffled his Cabinet and Osborne presented a budget.
If a week is a long time in politics, 5 weeks is an aeon.....
You are right on the timelines, but the political reality is that if he is being challenged for the leadership he won't have the practical authority to do any of those.
A leader is only a leader so long as he has followers
It could be quite a busy period with quite a few major government decisions to be taken that can't wait.
There will be holding action - probably agreed by all the major candidates for leadership. There are conventions that deal with this sort of thing.
You clearly believe Cameron will be gone in very short order, presumably Osborne also. Do you think this will apply irrespective of the result?
Maybe he could say "I'm going to stand down in the autumn" if he really wants a few more months - and so he isn't leaving immediately after the result.
The last thing the country needs in the immediate aftermath of a LEAVE vote is an optional extra crisis in government - I think Cameron will want to do 'the right thing for the country' and that does not involve an immediate crisis at the top of the government - what ever the wet dreams of excitable LEAVErs.
People need time to calm down and take stock - and the potential candidates need time to make their cases.
Arranging things so there is a Leadership Hustings at the Party Conference (albeit a bit late in early October, but that's fate) would, I think be the most sensible route.
But then 'sensible' has been in short supply on all sides recently.
I agree with the objective but think it better done so a new leader is in place per summer. They can then spend August getting their feet under the table.
The reality is that any new leader / Cameron would do much the same to steady the markets. The new PM will set the direction but they will be setting out policy positions during the campaign and I am sure they will all be similarish - probably EEA based
Fair enough, but I obtained odds 16/1 last July and 12/1 in February this year (and wrote about it here) for him to leave office this year.
***** Smug Face *****
Yes, I remember that prediction, you deserve the smug face. I'm not sure that many on here thought how vindictive the referendum campaign would be for the Tories - I was expecting polite and firm but civil disagreement within the party rather than war, famine and income tax rises being threatened by Nos 10 and 11.
And bus passes.
Yeah, it's a long list, sadly. I was swayed by the positivity of the likes of Gove and Hannan, much prefer politicians who talk up the UK and it's place in the world rather than talking it down. There's been very little said on the positive case for Remain in the past few months.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
What are you talking about? If the nation votes leave we leave. Implementing the people's will is perfectly democratic.
There is no need for QE; borrowing costs are already at record lows. If George Osborne had a sense of responsibility he would be pre-funding now to take advantage, but his priority is his own career so he won't.
The Nikkei was down by > 3% overnight and the FTSE is expected to fall by > 50 points at the start in 20 minutes time. It's all a bit bizarre really, given that even if there's a Brexit result, very little is going to happen for several years and it's quite possible, likely even, that nothing will ultimately happen.
You are assuming that there is some correlation between the 2. There is a lot more going on in the world economy than UK Brexit and very little of it is good.
That's true enough, although Brexit seems to be getting most of the blame - I certainly find it difficult to understand why, for example, the Japanese are becoming so exercised by it.
Uncertainty in one of the world's biggest markets is not good for anyone. The Japanese export a lot of stuff to Europe. If the continent's fragile recovery is thrown off course by a Brexit vote, then that is very bad news for Japanese exporters. We live in a very interconnected world these days.
Got a lot more to do with the precarious state of things in China I suspect.
It's an interconnected world. The Chinese also export a great deal to Europe. A Brexit vote is going to have significant and negative repercussions globally. But at least we get a PM sitting in the House of Lords and a few bankers can get even richer via QE, so it will all be worth it.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
I still think that Osborne will have done enough and that Remain will win. But if I am wrong then more than 50% of the country will have voted for that "manifesto", considerably more than voted Tory at the last election. The interim leader will not implement anything and the Conservative party will select a new leader on the platform he or she puts forward. My guess is that new leader would want their own mandate as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter.
Postal Ballot - for UK Elections its 19 working days (or less) before the election - which takes us to early August - Cameron will have been PM for 5 weeks after the vote, could have invoked Article 50, reshuffled his Cabinet and Osborne presented a budget.
If a week is a long time in politics, 5 weeks is an aeon.....
You are right on the timelines, but the political reality is that if he is being challenged for the leadership he won't have the practical authority to do any of those.
A leader is only a leader so long as he has followers
It could be quite a busy period with quite a few major government decisions to be taken that can't wait.
Sorry markets - government paralysed because the Tory Party is too busy committing seppuku...what's a 5 week run on the pound to worry about?
And that comes under holding action.
As does QE (which will happen) and opening the discount window to flood the market with liquidity.
But no foreign government will negotiate with Cameron until they know his has been confirmed in his place or is being replaced.
More QE? Wonderful. So, a direct result of the Leave vote will be the poor subsidising the rich once again. No wonder there are a few City boys licking their lips.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Exactly right. One side exaggerates a bit, the other offers a series of absurd Armageddon forecasts. Not too close, is it?
Only about 150 MPs are 'out and proud' for Brexit. But most of the remaining MPs will accept the will of the people, if Leave wins. There are many fewer than 150 die-hard and fanatical supporters of the EU in the HoC.
The tory party will close ranks remarkably quickly if Brexit wins. There will be very few casualties in number.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
Counter-intuitively, a vote for Brexit will provide more stable govt.
I don't know many people at all who are die-hard fanatical supporters of the EU. We can all see its faults - and that in a nutshell is why remain has been such a hard sell.
Like many others though I see leave as a retrograde step in an increasingly interconnected world, and have no faith or trust that those promoting leave have my, or other ordinary people's best interests at heart. For them it's all about power and in a few cases misplaced nostalgia for a Britain of long ago.
This is a huge choice yet its been pitched to the electorate in a way that has left me completely disenchanted with politics and politicians of all parties.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
What are you talking about? If the nation votes leave we leave. Implementing the people's will is perfectly democratic.
There is no need for QE; borrowing costs are already at record lows. If George Osborne had a sense of responsibility he would be pre-funding now to take advantage, but his priority is his own career so he won't.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
No he's probably referring to how £9 million was spent backing Remain on top of Remain's own budget which was more than Leave's entire budget.
That was a cretinous decision. If it doesn't work, it was a waste of £9 million. If it does work it was a waste of £9 million and gives Leavers a legitimate argument that the referendum was unfair. Considering the idea of the referendum was to put this issue to bed that was a stupid move.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
What are you talking about? If the nation votes leave we leave. Implementing the people's will is perfectly democratic.
There is no need for QE; borrowing costs are already at record lows. If George Osborne had a sense of responsibility he would be pre-funding now to take advantage, but his priority is his own career so he won't.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Exactly right. One side exaggerates a bit, the other offers a series of absurd Armageddon forecasts. Not too close, is it?
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
I still think that Osborne will have done enough and that Remain will win. But if I am wrong then more than 50% of the country will have voted for that "manifesto", considerably more than voted Tory at the last election. The interim leader will not implement anything and the Conservative party will select a new leader on the platform he or she puts forward. My guess is that new leader would want their own mandate as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter.
Yep, something voted for by over 50% of the country will be implemented by a section of a totally split party that received 37% of the vote at the last general election. But, it will be good to see the Tories cutting tax and increasing spending - as that manifesto promises to do. The magic money tree is a glorious thing. It does rather beg the question of why the Tories have been saying big public spending cuts are so essential though, doesn't it?
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
[...]
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
What a brilliant post. Sums up my feelings on this perfectly. I used to have time for Cameron but I now despise him.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
What are you talking about? If the nation votes leave we leave. Implementing the people's will is perfectly democratic.
There is no need for QE; borrowing costs are already at record lows. If George Osborne had a sense of responsibility he would be pre-funding now to take advantage, but his priority is his own career so he won't.
What Leave will the country have voted for?
Leave where we Take Control.
Totally meaningless. In eight days delivery will have to begin. That will be fun.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
I still think that Osborne will have done enough and that Remain will win. But if I am wrong then more than 50% of the country will have voted for that "manifesto", considerably more than voted Tory at the last election. The interim leader will not implement anything and the Conservative party will select a new leader on the platform he or she puts forward. My guess is that new leader would want their own mandate as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter.
Yep, something voted for by over 50% of the country will be implemented by a section of a totally split party that received 37% of the vote at the last general election. But, it will be good to see the Tories cutting tax and increasing spending - as that manifesto promises to do. The magic money tree is a glorious thing. It does rather beg the question of why the Tories have been saying big public spending cuts are so essential though, doesn't it?
Because we'll be net cutting spending, don't forget the spending on the continent that is cut that you need to take into account.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
What are you talking about? If the nation votes leave we leave. Implementing the people's will is perfectly democratic.
There is no need for QE; borrowing costs are already at record lows. If George Osborne had a sense of responsibility he would be pre-funding now to take advantage, but his priority is his own career so he won't.
What Leave will the country have voted for?
Leave where we Take Control.
Totally meaningless. In eight days delivery will have to begin. That will be fun.
Only about 150 MPs are 'out and proud' for Brexit. But most of the remaining MPs will accept the will of the people, if Leave wins. There are many fewer than 150 die-hard and fanatical supporters of the EU in the HoC.
The tory party will close ranks remarkably quickly if Brexit wins. There will be very few casualties in number.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
Counter-intuitively, a vote for Brexit will provide more stable govt.
I don't know many people at all who are die-hard fanatical supporters of the EU. We can all see its faults - and that in a nutshell is why remain has been such a hard sell.
Like many others though I see leave as a retrograde step in an increasingly interconnected world, and have no faith or trust that those promoting leave have my, or other ordinary people's best interests at heart. For them it's all about power and in a few cases misplaced nostalgia for a Britain of long ago.
This is a huge choice yet its been pitched to the electorate in a way that has left me completely disenchanted with politics and politicians of all parties.
Excellent post. My wife and I are increasingly dismayed at the extravagant claims and scare stories being peddled by both sides, and Osbornes Emergency (?Panic) Budget is only the latest. Why, we ask ourselves, would it be necessary to have such a budget on June 24th? We won’t know what the medium term effects of Brexit will be then, let alone, let alone anything longer-term! And we all know that the markets can, in times of uncertaintity, resemble the traditional whores knickers! And for very much the same reasons.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Because we'll be net cutting spending, don't forget the spending on the continent that is cut that you need to take into account.
And the IFS, a body that every politician has been happy to quote in support in the past, estimates that the hit to British tax revenues in the event of Brexit will be much larger than £8 billion. There will be no “extra money” to spend, on the NHS or anything else.
How can anyone know this, you might ask? Of course, no one can be certain of the future. But the bodies that have analysed this—the Bank of England, the IMF and OECD—all cite a hit to economic activity, assuming other things remain equal. Some will say that these experts have been wrong before. But what is the alternative? A blind faith in the assertions of the Leave campaign, and the likes of Boris Johnson, who said the pound rose when sterling left the Exchange Rate Mechanism—when in fact it plunged. He can’t even get the past right, let alone the future.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
Because we'll be net cutting spending, don't forget the spending on the continent that is cut that you need to take into account.
And the IFS, a body that every politician has been happy to quote in support in the past, estimates that the hit to British tax revenues in the event of Brexit will be much larger than £8 billion. There will be no “extra money” to spend, on the NHS or anything else.
How can anyone know this, you might ask? Of course, no one can be certain of the future. But the bodies that have analysed this—the Bank of England, the IMF and OECD—all cite a hit to economic activity, assuming other things remain equal. Some will say that these experts have been wrong before. But what is the alternative? A blind faith in the assertions of the Leave campaign, and the likes of Boris Johnson, who said the pound rose when sterling left the Exchange Rate Mechanism—when in fact it plunged. He can’t even get the past right, let alone the future.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
I still think that Osborne will have done enough and that Remain will win. But if I am wrong then more than 50% of the country will have voted for that "manifesto", considerably more than voted Tory at the last election. The interim leader will not implement anything and the Conservative party will select a new leader on the platform he or she puts forward. My guess is that new leader would want their own mandate as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter.
Yep, something voted for by over 50% of the country will be implemented by a section of a totally split party that received 37% of the vote at the last general election. But, it will be good to see the Tories cutting tax and increasing spending - as that manifesto promises to do. The magic money tree is a glorious thing. It does rather beg the question of why the Tories have been saying big public spending cuts are so essential though, doesn't it?
Because we'll be net cutting spending, don't forget the spending on the continent that is cut that you need to take into account.
If there is any decrease in government tax take as a result of Brexit the money we no longer give to Brussels will be needed to support current spending. Let's hope the experts on both the Remain and Leave sides are wrong/.
Only about 150 MPs are 'out and proud' for Brexit. But most of the remaining MPs will accept the will of the people, if Leave wins. There are many fewer than 150 die-hard and fanatical supporters of the EU in the HoC.
The tory party will close ranks remarkably quickly if Brexit wins. There will be very few casualties in number.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
Counter-intuitively, a vote for Brexit will provide more stable govt.
I don't know many people at all who are die-hard fanatical supporters of the EU. We can all see its faults - and that in a nutshell is why remain has been such a hard sell.
Like many others though I see leave as a retrograde step in an increasingly interconnected world, and have no faith or trust that those promoting leave have my, or other ordinary people's best interests at heart. For them it's all about power and in a few cases misplaced nostalgia for a Britain of long ago.
This is a huge choice yet its been pitched to the electorate in a way that has left me completely disenchanted with politics and politicians of all parties.
A case can be made that we are 'better' governed by the EU than by ourselves. Apparently, because they are not elected, they can think in longer time-frames. I'm not sold.
The argument that we need the EU because we live in an 'interconnected world' is exactly wrong. Because we live in an interconnected world, we don't need the EU. Its time has passed.
So, to get this straight, we are about to have a PM who sits in the Lords implementing a manifesto that nobody voted for, while the Bank of England sends hundreds of millions of pounds into the pockets of already very rich people via QE. It's good to see that Leave will have such an immediate affect on the democratic balance in the UK.
I still think that Osborne will have done enough and that Remain will win. But if I am wrong then more than 50% of the country will have voted for that "manifesto", considerably more than voted Tory at the last election. The interim leader will not implement anything and the Conservative party will select a new leader on the platform he or she puts forward. My guess is that new leader would want their own mandate as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter.
Yep, something voted for by over 50% of the country will be implemented by a section of a totally split party that received 37% of the vote at the last general election. But, it will be good to see the Tories cutting tax and increasing spending - as that manifesto promises to do. The magic money tree is a glorious thing. It does rather beg the question of why the Tories have been saying big public spending cuts are so essential though, doesn't it?
Because we'll be net cutting spending, don't forget the spending on the continent that is cut that you need to take into account.
If there is any decrease in government tax take as a result of Brexit the money we no longer give to Brussels will be needed to support current spending. Let's hope the experts on both the Remain and Leave sides are wrong/.
Let's hope the experts on the Leave side like former Chancellor of the Exchequer and former Governor of the Bank of England are right.
If you want to appeal to experts what makes you think you know so much better than the former Governor of the Bank of England?
Only about 150 MPs are 'out and proud' for Brexit. But most of the remaining MPs will accept the will of the people, if Leave wins. There are many fewer than 150 die-hard and fanatical supporters of the EU in the HoC.
The tory party will close ranks remarkably quickly if Brexit wins. There will be very few casualties in number.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
Counter-intuitively, a vote for Brexit will provide more stable govt.
I don't know many people at all who are die-hard fanatical supporters of the EU. We can all see its faults - and that in a nutshell is why remain has been such a hard sell.
Like many others though I see leave as a retrograde step in an increasingly interconnected world, and have no faith or trust that those promoting leave have my, or other ordinary people's best interests at heart. For them it's all about power and in a few cases misplaced nostalgia for a Britain of long ago.
This is a huge choice yet its been pitched to the electorate in a way that has left me completely disenchanted with politics and politicians of all parties.
A case can be made that we are 'better' governed by the EU than by ourselves. Apparently, because they are not elected, they can think in longer time-frames. I'm not sold.
The argument that we need the EU because we live in an 'interconnected world' is exactly wrong. Because we live in an interconnected world, we don't need the EU. Its time has passed.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
Agreed. I'd say it's lost by the looks of that single action.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Only about 150 MPs are 'out and proud' for Brexit. But most of the remaining MPs will accept the will of the people, if Leave wins. There are many fewer than 150 die-hard and fanatical supporters of the EU in the HoC.
The tory party will close ranks remarkably quickly if Brexit wins. There will be very few casualties in number.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
Counter-intuitively, a vote for Brexit will provide more stable govt.
I don't know many people at all who are die-hard fanatical supporters of the EU. We can all see its faults - and that in a nutshell is why remain has been such a hard sell.
Like many others though I see leave as a retrograde step in an increasingly interconnected world, and have no faith or trust that those promoting leave have my, or other ordinary people's best interests at heart. For them it's all about power and in a few cases misplaced nostalgia for a Britain of long ago.
This is a huge choice yet its been pitched to the electorate in a way that has left me completely disenchanted with politics and politicians of all parties.
A case can be made that we are 'better' governed by the EU than by ourselves. Apparently, because they are not elected, they can think in longer time-frames. I'm not sold.
The argument that we need the EU because we live in an 'interconnected world' is exactly wrong. Because we live in an interconnected world, we don't need the EU. Its time has passed.
Correct, the EU is hugely inward-looking and protectionist. The internationalist would say that we are better off finding out own way in the world rather than sticking with the slowest growing area on the planet. The likes of Dan Hannan have been saying this for years.
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
If we stay In it looks more likely than not Scotland, maybe even Gibralter, will have made the difference
I bet the SNP are hoping that doesn't happen. I'd be disappointed if English and Welsh politicians start complaining about being kept in the EU by the Scots. I'd rather this was brought up at opportune moments in the future when the SNP complain about being ruled by London.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
Wow! If that really the case, which I doubt, we should be piling onto Laddies' 10/1 against the margin of victory being < 1% either way. (12/1 when I first mentioned it a couple of days ago .... sorry!)
Comments
It's just an anecdote so I can't say it's telling but that is the second remain to leave I've encountered today.
It does ensure that the EU continues to have control over our commercial policy and economic regulations, though.
If you're judging 'Tory mood' by posters on here I suspect you're being misled.
MPs are practical folks with jobs to hang onto - and many, if not most of them will know that they've got that job in part thanks to Cameron.
Why would they remotely 'absolutely despise him and all he stands for'?
So there's a clear logic link between voting/supporting Corbyn and voting for Leave.
Middle class Labour supporters who are more exercised by values/identity politics and internationalism, without anything economic that threatens them other than higher public spending for the public sector and third sector, will be aghast.
https://history.blog.gov.uk/2013/04/24/prime-ministers-in-the-house-of-lords/
IMHO Theresa May would be a better choice, she's made a point of keeping her nose clean in the referendum campaign and would command the respect of the whole Parliamentary party.
Was getting a haircut in a barbers in SW london yesterday and asked the hairdresser whatbpeople had been saying to him whilst he has been cutting their hair.
Evidently nearly 100%!of people over 65 wanted to remain whereas the opposite was the case fir those between 25-50.
Totally counter intuitive to what i thought he was going to say.
Some strange stuff going on
If LEAVE win and in 2020 the sunlit uplands (and free Unicorns) have not yet manifested themselves - or indeed things have been a bit rough - who are the public going to punish?
Labour who argued REMAIN, or a Tory government led by LEAVErs?
***** Smug Face *****
Wasn't Lord Alec Douglas-Home PM whilst in the Lord's? (Racing to check my history refs here!)
Hammond, perhaps? Not sure he's got any future leadership ambitions, and he's not done too bad a job in the FCO.
But Hague? Why?
As they say in China shops 'You Break it. You Own it'
It would only need William Hague to see it through to September and most of that time the Commons will be in recess.
I know that there is a dewy-eyed notion on here that the average person does not have any investments, for example, that these are only for elitist metropolitans and toffs; but the reality is that millions and ,millions of people have pensions that depend on stock market performance. In the same way, although only 6% of UK companies export to Europe, that 6% employ millions of people and generate billions in tax revenues for the Treasury. Any hit to government income will mean more cuts and/or higher rates of tax if the deficit elimination plan that Tory Leavers have unanimously decreed is absolutely essential to our future is to stay on course. Likewise, if that 6% decide to retrench as they await the final Brexit deal that will affect incomes and employment opportunities. And so on.
That final Brexit deal better be worth it.
The tory party will close ranks remarkably quickly if Brexit wins. There will be very few casualties in number.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
Counter-intuitively, a vote for Brexit will provide more stable govt.
Well it's just an idea anyway!
I think there's a lot to be said for the winners saying on June 24th something along the lines of 'oh look the world's still spinning on its axis, now let's calm down.'
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
The reality is that any new leader / Cameron would do much the same to steady the markets. The new PM will set the direction but they will be setting out policy positions during the campaign and I am sure they will all be similarish - probably EEA based
There is no need for QE; borrowing costs are already at record lows. If George Osborne had a sense of responsibility he would be pre-funding now to take advantage, but his priority is his own career so he won't.
Like many others though I see leave as a retrograde step in an increasingly interconnected world, and have no faith or trust that those promoting leave have my, or other ordinary people's best interests at heart. For them it's all about power and in a few cases misplaced nostalgia for a Britain of long ago.
This is a huge choice yet its been pitched to the electorate in a way that has left me completely disenchanted with politics and politicians of all parties.
That was a cretinous decision. If it doesn't work, it was a waste of £9 million. If it does work it was a waste of £9 million and gives Leavers a legitimate argument that the referendum was unfair. Considering the idea of the referendum was to put this issue to bed that was a stupid move.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
It appears at the moment "we" is BoZo who takes control of Government (briefly)
Yay!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125203533
This is NOT a tip.
Why, we ask ourselves, would it be necessary to have such a budget on June 24th? We won’t know what the medium term effects of Brexit will be then, let alone, let alone anything longer-term!
And we all know that the markets can, in times of uncertaintity, resemble the traditional whores knickers! And for very much the same reasons.
And the IFS, a body that every politician has been happy to quote in support in the past, estimates that the hit to British tax revenues in the event of Brexit will be much larger than £8 billion. There will be no “extra money” to spend, on the NHS or anything else.
How can anyone know this, you might ask? Of course, no one can be certain of the future. But the bodies that have analysed this—the Bank of England, the IMF and OECD—all cite a hit to economic activity, assuming other things remain equal. Some will say that these experts have been wrong before. But what is the alternative? A blind faith in the assertions of the Leave campaign, and the likes of Boris Johnson, who said the pound rose when sterling left the Exchange Rate Mechanism—when in fact it plunged. He can’t even get the past right, let alone the future.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/06/eu-referendum-2?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
Didn't believe them then, don't believe them now.
The argument that we need the EU because we live in an 'interconnected world' is exactly wrong. Because we live in an interconnected world, we don't need the EU. Its time has passed.
If you want to appeal to experts what makes you think you know so much better than the former Governor of the Bank of England?
Shakespeare did it and the English / American language must never be static.
Northern Ireland should also be repolled. Even more important !
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal.
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You can tell Remain are in deep, deep, trouble.
Good pictures.
1% ?
0.5% ?