@BobbyIpsosMORI: Immigration now top issue, not economy, only 17% believe will be £4,300 worse: remain messages not landed #EUref https://t.co/5Vfmg7kOn7
Which is why a campaign built around hatred of Johnny Foreigner is polling in the lead
And there is part of the issue. The vast majority of us are not knuckle dragging "In -ger-lund" types.
I have lived abroad on the Continent, speak two languages, have a job totally based on trade, will be in France early on the 24th to enjoy its delights (so staying up on the count night is a bit of a bugger!), and would look forward to many such future visits in total friendship and cooperation with our neighbours. I harbour zero animosity to those that have come here under the rules as they are. Not their fault the rules are nuts. They deserve our protection and welcome as much as "native" Brits do in our society. but:-
1) It is not xenophobic to question if the system we have is still fit for purpose. If we sweep that under the carpet as so many in Parliament have for years problems multiply.
2) I bitterly resent being treated like a bleedin' idiot by successive Govts on this issue. The past three weeks have just been the culmination of so much over the years.
Not sure still who's going to win, and whoever does they need to respect and take into account the views of those on the other side, however, tarring us as brainless xenophobic idiots is not helping Remain's cause a jot.
It's a shame I can't actually link the graph, due to the way it's generated. But if you want to know what the issue is for many people, take a look at
Most of the posters here are intelligent reasonable folk. Fit a trend line onto that graph. Then come back here and keep screaming "Racist! Racist! Racist!" at the people that have been most affected by that trend. If you dare.
Well quite.
For me though Cameron lying his deal was fantastic was really the final straw. It was bollocks, and really the "emperor's new clothes" moment for me, not only with the shameless snake oil selling of it, but Brussels utterly tin ear. "Western political civilisation" is about to end possibly next Friday morning because they couldn't bend a bit on freedom of movement. What crap. What idiots.
I started this campaign expecting backing Remain, but now am extremely excited for the idea of Leave. Mainly because I am an optimist who has confidence in our nation.
I have found the talking down of our great nation by Cameron and Osborne utterly shocking. It is the sort of preserve of the far left who only see the bad of our nation. Osborne has morphed into Corbyn before our eyes with nothing good to say about our country.
This country that has steel in its bones. That does not waver and just gets on with the job and does what needs to be done. We won't be bullied into submission. Remain's campaign of fear may work on lesser nations but it won't work on mine, it deserves to lose.
I have seen no evidence of Cameron and Osborne "talking down" our country. They are merely trying to tell us that the possibilities from Brexit are likely to be very negative for the economy.
There was no swing back to No, it's just that DKs voted No on the day.
That's one reason why I'm not sure Osbourne did himself any favours on Tuesday night... Given that people believe the other sides £350m a week figure why would they trust his £30bn uncosted black hole when they don't trust his £4300 figure...
Why would anyone trust someone respected by only 2% of the voters? Osborne is rated even lower than Cameron FFS. Are they both secret agents for LEAVE?
Quite right. I don't buy this free pass argument the Leavers seem to be promoting. "Oh it won't happen for two years so everything will be fine." As you say Carlotta, businesses will plan ahead. Why the hell otherwise are majors like Unilever and Tata writing to their staff?
Sadly, the sensible moderates from both sides of the political divide on this forum are being drowned out by the hard-left and the hard-right, who have all the best tunes. I can only hope some of the people who have got carried away by their populism come to their senses.
But I don't think they will. To see kle4, Charles and Rochdale pledging for Leave is utterly depressing. I had even hoped SeanT would see sense eventually. But no.
A better question may be to ask why they haven't seen what you are calling "sense". Is it possible that you are the one who is blinkered and not seeing the full picture....
The idea of a free pass for 2 years may not even be true in all respects, because there will be EU projects that have a longer term than that. For instance, my understanding is that after the Swiss referendum vote to restrict free movement (with a duty on the Swiss government to enact the result in law within 2 years), that some elements of the EU funding for academic research were frozen immediately, since the Swiss were not in a position to guarantee free movement of research students for the duration of their contracts.
If we do exit, I am pretty certain there will be projects that will need either need shoring up will alternative arrangements on day 1, or else be left in limbo.
Mea Culpa. Correction Leave aren't leading by 14% among likely voters. It is actually 2%
So why isn't a Leave lead of 2% the headline figure then?
That still means this is very close.
Another fooking mistake on my part
Leave lead among likely voters = 6%
Leave lead among all voters = 2%
Apologies again.
No apology necessary. I know you and OGH must find this extremely stressful, but try and chill a little bit if you can. No point killing yourself over it.
I'll be buying you a few drinks after this. You've worked bloody hard.
Seconded and do try to take that holiday in America/Canada.
Further momentum for Leave though undecideds still key. BMG poll has 67% of ABC1s likely to turnout and 55% of C2DEs
C1's will probably break for Leave. But AB turnout will be high. It might rain and C"DE turnout will be low.
But there is always Northern Ireland.
I would be careful of assuming Northern Ireland is a slam dunk big Remain lead.
With Sinn Fein supporting remain it will be a brave working class Catholic who puts their head above the parapet and admits to voting leave -they havent gone away you know. They will wait for the secrecy of the ballot box.
As the protestant working class is solidly Leave (DUP) it might be a lot closer than you think there.
I started this campaign expecting backing Remain, but now am extremely excited for the idea of Leave. Mainly because I am an optimist who has confidence in our nation.
I have found the talking down of our great nation by Cameron and Osborne utterly shocking. It is the sort of preserve of the far left who only see the bad of our nation. Osborne has morphed into Corbyn before our eyes with nothing good to say about our country.
This country that has steel in its bones. That does not waver and just gets on with the job and does what needs to be done. We won't be bullied into submission. Remain's campaign of fear may work on lesser nations but it won't work on mine, it deserves to lose.
I have seen no evidence of Cameron and Osborne "talking down" our country. They are merely trying to tell us that the possibilities from Brexit are likely to be very negative for the economy.
Excellent point.
I do wonder what the public view of Osborne and Cameron will be in 18 months time, when they have been proved right?
From the anecdotal evidence I can see on the telly, the most anti-immigration people are from WWC Old Labour heartlands where there is very little immigration. Funny old world.
It was ALWAYS about immigration. Everyone is bigoted against something at least a little bit. And 30 years of neo-liberalism telling you that YOU are important above all others, combined over the last 10 years of mindless consumerism where your worth as a person is defined by what iPhone you have means we have a populace that is shallow, petty and ill informed.
And so people become unhappy with themselves and their lot, and they blame the change in society. Its hard to blame Apple (other purveyors of pointless tat are available) or the X Factor or the establishment who have changed things in small increments for the worse over a long period. Its easy to blame the visual change and that means foreigners.
Free movement of Labour has been a disaster. For Western Europe it has suppressed wages and conditions, and led to massive unemployment and underemployment. For eastern Europe their brightest and most industrious have ditched their own country to work in Starbucks on minimum wage in the west.
And thats even on doorsteps in places with minimal migration its all about migration. To sneer at anyone raising it as an issue, to tell them they don't know what they are talking about, to call them racist is the problem. The established political parties have given up engaging with people and instead offer what Galloway described as two cheeks of the same arse - whatever you think your issues are you are wrong, anyway you have no choice.
People do have a choice. Democracy is revolution. As we're about to witness in full efect.
So you are voting to put in place an even more right wing government than the one we have now that will do nothing to reduce immigration for a number of years, if it ever does, but will have the power to reduce trade union rights even further and make greater cuts to the public services that working people use every day. Makes sense to me.
Which won't make any difference to migration levels. Indeed, non-EU migration will probably have to rise if we quit the single market. This is the central insanity of the Labour Leave tendency.
I'm a Leaver not because I think a vote to Leave is a silver bullet. Indeed I would be surprised if we actually do leave. A Leave vote in a week's time will trigger uproar in the EU, and other votes in other member states. The status quo is untenable - Schengen has already collapsed, the Euro has broken half of southern Europe and has a Deutsche Bank sword of damocles hanging over it. The refugee crisis has blurred into internal migration and highlighted that borders are still needed.
So no, its not insanity. And with respect who are you to tell people who are struggling to get by and are unhappy with things now that a vote to try and change that is "insanity". In our stupid electoral system millions of votes don't count - you need to live in a key marginal and vote for the winner and have that winner actually represent you to make an actual difference. Its no wonder participation in our democracy is declining - people have concluded there is little point. But in this referendum all votes have equal weight, and you can effect actual change. And the people taken for granted have had enough and will have their say.
Remain is still the bookies favourite, Perhaps because a last minute wallet driven swingback is still likely. I guess though if Survation show a similar finding crossover may not be far away. A Remain lead or a small Leave lead will show it's far from over.
I started this campaign expecting backing Remain, but now am extremely excited for the idea of Leave. Mainly because I am an optimist who has confidence in our nation.
I have found the talking down of our great nation by Cameron and Osborne utterly shocking. It is the sort of preserve of the far left who only see the bad of our nation. Osborne has morphed into Corbyn before our eyes with nothing good to say about our country.
This country that has steel in its bones. That does not waver and just gets on with the job and does what needs to be done. We won't be bullied into submission. Remain's campaign of fear may work on lesser nations but it won't work on mine, it deserves to lose.
I have seen no evidence of Cameron and Osborne "talking down" our country. They are merely trying to tell us that the possibilities from Brexit are likely to be very negative for the economy.
It's political campaigning. There will be a transition and disruption cost associated with independence (when has there ever not been?) but the medium-term economics are neutral and the long-term looks good.
I really don't see how remain win from here. There will
Yes, and needs to be a massive swing too, I just cannot see it. Now I just have to make sure my own nerve does not fail.
I'm not expecting last minute swings in the
There may be a lot of change in Westminster but for ordinary people not so much.
I'm stunned that sensible centrist posters on here such as @kle4 are pledging to vote Leave, despite knowing the damage it will do. It's utterly bizarre. Like some great sleepwalking drug has been sprayed upon the masses.
But we're not walking away from the single market for at least 2 years if at all.
SO IF WE DON'T WALK AWAY FROM THE SINGLE MARKET THE DREAMS OF YOUR FELLOW TRAVELLERS ABOUT PULLING UP THE DRAWBRIDGE TO MIGRANTS ARE DEAD.
WAKE UP.
Precisely. And the public need to understand this.
As it happens Germany has made it clear 'Out' means out and there will be no single market access for us.
Osborne needs to keep pushing on the economy and damn the torpedoes:
e.g. If you are employed by a business that mainly trades with Europe, then check the clauses on your mortgage agreement about redundancy.
From the anecdotal evidence I can see on the telly, the most anti-immigration people are from WWC Old Labour heartlands where there is very little immigration. Funny old world.
They don't sit isolated in their homes - they travel around the country for work, leisure, family. And they see the strain nationally even if regionally they are as of yet unscathed.
I see Graham Brady has penned a sensible column in the Telegraph today. I am in touch with a conservative Brexiteer MP who is a personal friend and who I worked closely with in the 2010 election campaign and we both agree that the first thing post 23rd June will be relief that it is all over and that the party will heal its wounds and step forward with a new Cabinet and sense of purpose. I have not heard any leading Conservative Brexiteer actually call for DC to go and I believe he will continue no matter the result for an interim period before handing over his Office in an orderly manner to his elected successor.
Remain is still the bookies favourite, Perhaps because a last minute wallet driven swingback is still likely. I guess though if Survation show a similar finding crossover may not be far away. A Remain lead or a small Leave lead will show it's far from over.
@Shadsy isn't trying to predict the result, he's just trying to balance his book !
I imagine he's delighted at taking £35,000 bets on Remain at 8 to bloody 15.
Don't forget London is a "remain" stronghold so the big hitters will be basing their bets on the fact all their mates are voting remain, they're seeing remain posters everywhere inside London and can't possibly work out who is voting to leave.
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori Many believe the TURKS are coming if REMAIN wins #EUref - another argument getting through pic.twitter.com/0tpQ6IFEDm
It was ALWAYS about immigration. Everyone is bigoted against something at least a little bit. And 30 years of neo-liberalism telling you that YOU are important above all others, combined over the last 10 years of mindless consumerism where your worth as a person is defined by what iPhone you have means we have a populace that is shallow, petty and ill informed.
And so people become unhappy with themselves and their lot, and they blame the change in society. Its hard to blame Apple (other purveyors of pointless tat are available) or the X Factor or the establishment who have changed things in small increments for the worse over a long period. Its easy to blame the visual change and that means foreigners.
Free movement of Labour has been a disaster. For Western Europe it has suppressed wages and conditions, and led to massive unemployment and underemployment. For eastern Europe their brightest and most industrious have ditched their own country to work in Starbucks on minimum wage in the west.
And thats even on doorsteps in places with minimal migration its all about migration. To sneer at anyone raising it as an issue, to tell them they don't know what they are talking about, to call them racist is the problem. The established political parties have given up engaging with people and instead offer what Galloway described as two cheeks of the same arse - whatever you think your issues are you are wrong, anyway you have no choice.
People do have a choice. Democracy is revolution. As we're about to witness in full efect.
So you are voting to put in place an even more right wing government than the one we have now that will do nothing to reduce immigration for a number of years, if it ever does, but will have the power to reduce trade union rights even further and make greater cuts to the public services that working people use every day. Makes sense to me.
This is the insanity we are dealing with. We've lost.
It was ALWAYS about immigration. Everyone is bigoted against something at least a little bit. And 30 years of neo-liberalism telling you that YOU are important above all others, combined over the last 10 years of mindless consumerism where your worth as a person is defined by what iPhone you have means we have a populace that is shallow, petty and ill informed.
And so people become unhappy with themselves and their lot, and they blame the change in society. Its hard to blame Apple (other purveyors of pointless tat are available) or the X Factor or the establishment who have changed things in small increments for the worse over a long period. Its easy to blame the visual change and that means foreigners.
Free movement of Labour has been a disaster. For Western Europe it has suppressed wages and conditions, and led to massive unemployment and underemployment. For eastern Europe their brightest and most industrious have ditched their own country to work in Starbucks on minimum wage in the west.
And thats even on doorsteps in places with minimal migration its all about migration. To sneer at anyone raising it as an issue, to tell them they don't know what they are talking about, to call them racist is the problem. The established political parties have given up engaging with people and instead offer what Galloway described as two cheeks of the same arse - whatever you think your issues are you are wrong, anyway you have no choice.
People do have a choice. Democracy is revolution. As we're about to witness in full efect.
So you are voting to put in place an even more right wing government than the one we have now that will do nothing to reduce immigration for a number of years, if it ever does, but will have the power to reduce trade union rights even further and make greater cuts to the public services that working people use every day. Makes sense to me.
This is the insanity we are dealing with. We've lost.
Leave are doing so well because they've harnessed both left and rightwing arguments to appeal across the board, shamelessly. There's going to be vast resentment at what actually transpires.
Having sat opened mouthed watching it unfold, then sat with a growing grin on my face reading how badly it backfired I've reached the following conclusions about yesterday's punishment budget:
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
Remain is still the bookies favourite, Perhaps because a last minute wallet driven swingback is still likely. I guess though if Survation show a similar finding crossover may not be far away. A Remain lead or a small Leave lead will show it's far from over.
@Shadsy isn't trying to predict the result, he's just trying to balance his book !
I imagine he's delighted at taking £35,000 bets on Remain at 8 to bloody 15.
Don't forget London is a "remain" stronghold so the big hitters will be basing their bets on the fact all their mates are voting remain, they're seeing remain posters everywhere inside London and can't possibly work out who is voting to leave.
What Cameron and Osborne's REMAIN campaign has come down to. A platform for Gordon Brown spending 10 minutes slagging off the Conservative party and promoting the Labour party. Nothing about the EU yet.
It was ALWAYS about immigration. Everyone is bigoted against something at least a little bit. And 30 years of neo-liberalism telling you that YOU are important above all others, combined over the last 10 years of mindless consumerism where your worth as a person is defined by what iPhone you have means we have a populace that is shallow, petty and ill informed.
And so people become unhappy with themselves and their lot, and they blame the change in society. Its hard to blame Apple (other purveyors of pointless tat are available) or the X Factor or the establishment who have changed things in small increments for the worse over a long period. Its easy to blame the visual change and that means foreigners.
Free movement of Labour has been a disaster. For Western Europe it has suppressed wages and conditions, and led to massive unemployment and underemployment. For eastern Europe their brightest and most industrious have ditched their own country to work in Starbucks on minimum wage in the west.
And thats even on doorsteps in places with minimal migration its all about migration. To sneer at anyone raising it as an issue, to tell them they don't know what they are talking about, to call them racist is the problem. The established political parties have given up engaging with people and instead offer what Galloway described as two cheeks of the same arse - whatever you think your issues are you are wrong, anyway you have no choice.
People do have a choice. Democracy is revolution. As we're about to witness in full efect.
So you are voting to put in place an even more right wing government than the one we have now that will do nothing to reduce immigration for a number of years, if it ever does, but will have the power to reduce trade union rights even further and make greater cuts to the public services that working people use every day. Makes sense to me.
This is the insanity we are dealing with. We've lost.
Even if Remain wins, Cameron may be ousted in favour of a more right wing government. If the Tories do the things you say, then Labour can stand on a platform in 2020 to reverse them. It seems to me that part of Labour's support for the EU is based on the fact they don't think they can win in 2020
I really don't see how remain win from here. There will
Yes, and needs to be a massive swing too, I just cannot see it. Now I just have to make sure my own nerve does not fail.
I'm not expecting last minute swings in the
There may be a lot of change in Westminster but for ordinary people not so much.
I'm stunned that sensible centrist posters on here such as @kle4 are pledging to vote Leave, despite knowing the damage it will do. It's utterly bizarre. Like some great sleepwalking drug has been sprayed upon the masses.
But we're not walking away from the single market for at least 2 years if at all.
SO IF WE DON'T WALK AWAY FROM THE SINGLE MARKET THE DREAMS OF YOUR FELLOW TRAVELLERS ABOUT PULLING UP THE DRAWBRIDGE TO MIGRANTS ARE DEAD.
WAKE UP.
Shouting isn't going to solve anything. If you don't like what you are reading take a break..
Free movement of Labour has been a disaster. For Western Europe it has suppressed wages and conditions, and led to massive unemployment and underemployment. For eastern Europe their brightest and most industrious have ditched their own country to work in Starbucks on minimum wage in the west.
And thats even on doorsteps in places with minimal migration its all about migration.
We will still have immigration. LEAVE aim to get it down to 100,000 by 2020. Which most people would find acceptable. The big difference is that we will be able to choose who comes, like Australia. It really is that simple.
And this is the rod the leave campaign have made for themselves. By pandering to those who think immigration is the root of all their problems, while intending to do nothing about it.
We are indeed about to see democracy in action.
"And this is the rod the leave campaign have made for themselves. By pandering to those who think immigration is the root of all their problems, while intending to do nothing about it.
We are indeed about to see democracy in action. "
Good. Lets see democracy in action because we certainly don't see it from the E.U. If Leave fook up then we get to kick them out. What a novel idea? We can't do that with the commisioners and presidents(fucking plural, wtf).
On Facebook messenger with a comrade discussing the latest poll and what in means.
I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?
It was ALWAYS about immigration. Everyone is bigoted against something at least a little bit. And 30 years of neo-liberalism telling you that YOU are important above all others, combined over the last 10 years of mindless consumerism where your worth as a person is defined by what iPhone you have means we have a populace that is shallow, petty and ill informed.
And so people become unhappy with themselves and their lot, and they blame the change in society. Its hard to blame Apple (other purveyors of pointless tat are available) or the X Factor or the establishment who have changed things in small increments for the worse over a long period. Its easy to blame the visual change and that means foreigners.
Free movement of Labour has been a disaster. For Western Europe it has suppressed wages and conditions, and led to massive unemployment and underemployment. For eastern Europe their brightest and most industrious have ditched their own country to work in Starbucks on minimum wage in the west.
And thats even on doorsteps in places with minimal migration its all about migration. To sneer at anyone raising it as an issue, to tell them they don't know what they are talking about, to call them racist is the problem. The established political parties have given up engaging with people and instead offer what Galloway described as two cheeks of the same arse - whatever you think your issues are you are wrong, anyway you have no choice.
People do have a choice. Democracy is revolution. As we're about to witness in full efect.
So you are voting to put in place an even more right wing government than the one we have now that will do nothing to reduce immigration for a number of years, if it ever does, but will have the power to reduce trade union rights even further and make greater cuts to the public services that working people use every day. Makes sense to me.
This is the insanity we are dealing with. We've lost.
Remain was always going to lose. Immigration is just too potent a message to fight against. But there are going to be a huge number of very disillusioned, beaten up ordinary punters that will be absolutely furious at what is about to actually transpire.
Leave has promised no tax cuts, extra spending, cheaper housing and substantially lower immigration. Voters are not going to wait ten years for that. They are not going to wait five. They are very quickly going to decide that they were lied to. And with good reason. They were lied to.
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori Many believe the TURKS are coming if REMAIN wins #EUref - another argument getting through pic.twitter.com/0tpQ6IFEDm
Sky Beth "Gordon Brown is going to trash Osborne's northern powerhouse and Osborne is just going to have to suck it up".
Brown say Labour will secure £35billion for Britain if we stay. WHAT?! how on earth is he going to do that. Well I guess as someone who saved the world and the union any thing is possible. I don't know why we ever voted him out...
I've been reading the LabourLeave's pamphlet. It's interesting, if a little repetitive.
For those interested in how they see the existential threat to the Labour party itself, Frank Field and Jasper Miles are particularly persuasive. If I were a Labour grandee, I would be horrified that my party were selling Remain. I suppose it's the nature of any ancien regime to be oblivious to the risks they're running.
As a child of the '60s there was also the thrill of reading a full-blooded retro piece from ASLEF (Mick Whelan), whose primary concern is the Fourth Railway Package (which, as he positions it, would make re-nationalisation of the railways impossible).
I started this campaign expecting backing Remain, but now am extremely excited for the idea of Leave. Mainly because I am an optimist who has confidence in our nation.
I have found the talking down of our great nation by Cameron and Osborne utterly shocking. It is the sort of preserve of the far left who only see the bad of our nation. Osborne has morphed into Corbyn before our eyes with nothing good to say about our country.
This country that has steel in its bones. That does not waver and just gets on with the job and does what needs to be done. We won't be bullied into submission. Remain's campaign of fear may work on lesser nations but it won't work on mine, it deserves to lose.
I have seen no evidence of Cameron and Osborne "talking down" our country. They are merely trying to tell us that the possibilities from Brexit are likely to be very negative for the economy.
I think the 'talking down' narrative is key for Leave over the next week, in advance of a possible victory. If there is a Leave vote and the money markets take a negative hit (I believe they will due to uncertainty rather than fear but that's a very subtle difference the day after a referendum) then Leave will need to be able to say 'Well what do you expect the markets to do when Cameron/Osborne/Brown have been talking down the economy for the last six weeks.'
Sir Cliff to face no action....BBC lawyers awaiting the phone call....
Mother will be jumping for joy!
This has destroyed him and is an absolute disgrace. I know a close friend of Sir Cliff's who said Sir Cliff, his family and friends, have been shattered by the false allegations and no amount of apologies or regrets by those who pursued him will ever erase his and their trauma.
"Immigration is now the most critical issue, cited as very important to their vote by 33 per cent, up five points in a month, including just over half of leave supporters."
In other words immigration is not the most critical for 67% of voters including just under half of leave supporters.
The idea leave is winning the support of 53% due to immigration alone is a bold faced lie.
which means a late vow onn migration would be useless.
On Facebook messenger with a comrade discussing the latest poll and what in means.
I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?
Nope - we are at the beginning of at least four years of the most right wing government this country has ever had. And working people are going to pay a huge price as a result.
I really don't see how remain win from here. There will
Yes, and needs to be a massive swing too, I just cannot see it. Now I just have to make sure my own nerve does not fail.
I'm not expecting last minute swings in the
There may be a lot of change in Westminster but for ordinary people not so much.
I'm stunned that sensible centrist posters on here such as @kle4 are pledging to vote Leave, despite knowing the damage it will do. It's utterly bizarre. Like some great sleepwalking drug has been sprayed upon the masses.
But we're not walking away from the single market for at least 2 years if at all.
SO IF WE DON'T WALK AWAY FROM THE SINGLE MARKET THE DREAMS OF YOUR FELLOW TRAVELLERS ABOUT PULLING UP THE DRAWBRIDGE TO MIGRANTS ARE DEAD.
WAKE UP.
Precisely. And the public need to understand this.
As it happens Germany has made it clear 'Out' means out and there will be no single market access for us.
Osborne needs to keep pushing on the economy and damn the torpedoes:
e.g. If you are employed by a business that mainly trades with Europe, then check the clauses on your mortgage agreement about redundancy.
I started this campaign expecting backing Remain, but now am extremely excited for the idea of Leave. Mainly because I am an optimist who has confidence in our nation.
I have found the talking down of our great nation by Cameron and Osborne utterly shocking. It is the sort of preserve of the far left who only see the bad of our nation. Osborne has morphed into Corbyn before our eyes with nothing good to say about our country.
This country that has steel in its bones. That does not waver and just gets on with the job and does what needs to be done. We won't be bullied into submission. Remain's campaign of fear may work on lesser nations but it won't work on mine, it deserves to lose.
I have seen no evidence of Cameron and Osborne "talking down" our country. They are merely trying to tell us that the possibilities from Brexit are likely to be very negative for the economy.
It's political campaigning. There will be a transition and disruption cost associated with independence (when has there ever not been?) but the medium-term economics are neutral and the long-term looks good.
Very good.
Why does the long term look good? I'm prepared to accept that the short term hit won't be diabolical but what reason is there to think we would do better out in the long term? The forecasts are that the economy would become more closed with less trade which if anything would reduce GDP. We may control our own borders but I don't see any other significant advantages to leaving.
All this talk about regulations........... We're already a comparatively unregulated economy in terms of products and labour and the one area we do have real restrictions, on planning and land use, has nothing to do with the EU. Presumably Patrick Minford's plans are for a bonfire of employment rights. Given the government climbdown on tax credits, good luck with that.
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori Many believe the TURKS are coming if REMAIN wins #EUref - another argument getting through pic.twitter.com/0tpQ6IFEDm
This painting illustrates the Vote Leave platform:
On Facebook messenger with a comrade discussing the latest poll and what in means.
I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?
I can see that. Repeal the fixed term act, allow for a few strange temporary alliances and, in parallel, determine a decent PR voting platform. Introduce this and we all move on - PR^2 anyone?
Having sat opened mouthed watching it unfold, then sat with a growing grin on my face reading how badly it backfired I've reached the following conclusions about yesterday's punishment budget:
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
I'm voting to Leave.
A superb post. And one that genuinely challenges me personally.
For those following my red wine antics last night, I confessed to my wife in the sobriety of the morning. The sofa looks a complete state, and I couldn't pin the blame on the dog. I am now in the doghouse and may well have compromised a free afternoon pass to the pub to watch the match.
Bad luck Tyson, if its any consolation it was very funny from our point of view!!
Mea Culpa. Correction Leave aren't leading by 14% among likely voters. It is actually 2%
So why isn't a Leave lead of 2% the headline figure then?
That still means this is very close.
Taken together, the polls over the last seven days suggest a 5 point lead for Leave...
What's your assessment of a Leave win probability, Rod?
Also, do you believe in the bottling Phenomenon, or do you think people are actually quite stoic and will hold firm to their vote?
Well, the recent polls indicate a big swing to Leave, and if they are generally unbiased, the probability of Leave [today] is about 90%.
I can't comment on the rest. There's a week to go. Some people may hesitate, not vote, or indeed come out to vote, one way or another. There's 35 million decisions to model, and I have no model...
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori Many believe the TURKS are coming if REMAIN wins #EUref - another argument getting through pic.twitter.com/0tpQ6IFEDm
Yep. And this one is xenophobic and racist.
But you have to admit that Cameron has welcomed the application of Turkey, that the UK has spent several million improving the application and that the EU paid Ford, with OUR money of course, to close their factory and relocate to Turkey.
(In theory I can't believe that Turkey would get membership due to not meeting criteria and intransigence of certain countries - and then I remember that when the ERM was set up no actual country (other than Luxembourg) actually met the joining criteria and that the Germans rather Own Greece at the moment - although TBH I think they wish they did not.)
You see - the EU doesn't have the trust of the British voter - and that is the straw breaking the camel's back.
Sir Cliff to face no action....BBC lawyers awaiting the phone call....
Mother will be jumping for joy!
This has destroyed him and is an absolute disgrace. I know a close friend of Sir Cliff's who said Sir Cliff, his family and friends, have been shattered by the false allegations and no amount of apologies or regrets by those who pursued him will ever erase his and their trauma.
Another example of why people under investigation in this manner deserve anominity.
On Facebook messenger with a comrade discussing the latest poll and what in means.
I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?
Nope - we are at the beginning of at least four years of the most right wing government this country has ever had. And working people are going to pay a huge price as a result.
What absolute guff, Mr. Observer. How many seats in Parliament will change hands next week? None. So the composition of Parliament will not change at all, therefore the legislation that Parliament will be prepared to pass will not change. A few seats around the cabinet table will change hands and, if we are lucky, we might get rid of Cameron and Osborne but that is hardly a coup d'etat by a fascist clique.
If you want to persist with this rather outdated use of left/right wing then consider the governments of the past. Even what you might consider the extreme right of the Conservative party pale into pink pussycats compared to some of them.
On Facebook messenger with a comrade discussing the latest poll and what in means.
I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?
Nope - we are at the beginning of at least four years of the most right wing government this country has ever had. And working people are going to pay a huge price as a result.
More right-wing than miners strike Fatcha? Cor.....
SO IF WE DON'T WALK AWAY FROM THE SINGLE MARKET THE DREAMS OF YOUR FELLOW TRAVELLERS ABOUT PULLING UP THE DRAWBRIDGE TO MIGRANTS ARE DEAD.
WAKE UP.
Oh. So you dont buy wine from New Zealand, or electronics from China, or any number of products from the USA, none of which are in the single market, but all manage to sell into it just fine.
Comments
For me though Cameron lying his deal was fantastic was really the final straw. It was bollocks, and really the "emperor's new clothes" moment for me, not only with the shameless snake oil selling of it, but Brussels utterly tin ear. "Western political civilisation" is about to end possibly next Friday morning because they couldn't bend a bit on freedom of movement. What crap. What idiots.
If we do exit, I am pretty certain there will be projects that will need either need shoring up will alternative arrangements on day 1, or else be left in limbo.
With Sinn Fein supporting remain it will be a brave working class Catholic who puts their head above the parapet and admits to voting leave -they havent gone away you know. They will wait for the secrecy of the ballot box.
As the protestant working class is solidly Leave (DUP) it might be a lot closer than you think there.
I do wonder what the public view of Osborne and Cameron will be in 18 months time, when they have been proved right?
Also, do you believe in the bottling Phenomenon, or do you think people are actually quite stoic and will hold firm to their vote?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :
Should The United Kingdom Remain A Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?
Remain 57% (+1) .. Leave 43% (-1)
Is ARSE going to be as wrong as EICIPM?????
There is also the practice of not reminding the person about that mistake.
I'm intrigued by "Sheet 29" on the US electoral race.
So no, its not insanity. And with respect who are you to tell people who are struggling to get by and are unhappy with things now that a vote to try and change that is "insanity". In our stupid electoral system millions of votes don't count - you need to live in a key marginal and vote for the winner and have that winner actually represent you to make an actual difference. Its no wonder participation in our democracy is declining - people have concluded there is little point. But in this referendum all votes have equal weight, and you can effect actual change. And the people taken for granted have had enough and will have their say.
Very good.
As it happens Germany has made it clear 'Out' means out and there will be no single market access for us.
Osborne needs to keep pushing on the economy and damn the torpedoes:
e.g. If you are employed by a business that mainly trades with Europe, then check the clauses on your mortgage agreement about redundancy.
Does he believe this shit himself? More to the point, are Labour voters stupid enough to believe it?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/31/big-gamble-dangerous-british-betting-shops
I imagine he's delighted at taking £35,000 bets on Remain at 8 to bloody 15.
Don't forget London is a "remain" stronghold so the big hitters will be basing their bets on the fact all their mates are voting remain, they're seeing remain posters everywhere inside London and can't possibly work out who is voting to leave.
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
Many believe the TURKS are coming if REMAIN wins #EUref - another argument getting through pic.twitter.com/0tpQ6IFEDm
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
We are indeed about to see democracy in action. "
Good. Lets see democracy in action because we certainly don't see it from the E.U. If Leave fook up then we get to kick them out. What a novel idea? We can't do that with the commisioners and presidents(fucking plural, wtf).
I think we are in the dying weeks of the final ever majority government that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will ever have. What do you think...?
Leave has promised no tax cuts, extra spending, cheaper housing and substantially lower immigration. Voters are not going to wait ten years for that. They are not going to wait five. They are very quickly going to decide that they were lied to. And with good reason. They were lied to.
For those interested in how they see the existential threat to the Labour party itself, Frank Field and Jasper Miles are particularly persuasive. If I were a Labour grandee, I would be horrified that my party were selling Remain. I suppose it's the nature of any ancien regime to be oblivious to the risks they're running.
As a child of the '60s there was also the thrill of reading a full-blooded retro piece from ASLEF (Mick Whelan), whose primary concern is the Fourth Railway Package (which, as he positions it, would make re-nationalisation of the railways impossible).
"A price worth paying"
A FB friend of mine just told me that your blogpost helped her decide how to vote...
All this talk about regulations........... We're already a comparatively unregulated economy in terms of products and labour and the one area we do have real restrictions, on planning and land use, has nothing to do with the EU. Presumably Patrick Minford's plans are for a bonfire of employment rights. Given the government climbdown on tax credits, good luck with that.
http://uploads1.wikiart.org/images/bertalan-szekely/mih-ly-dobozi-and-his-wife-1861.jpg
I can't comment on the rest. There's a week to go. Some people may hesitate, not vote, or indeed come out to vote, one way or another. There's 35 million decisions to model, and I have no model...
(In theory I can't believe that Turkey would get membership due to not meeting criteria and intransigence of certain countries - and then I remember that when the ERM was set up no actual country (other than Luxembourg) actually met the joining criteria and that the Germans rather Own Greece at the moment - although TBH I think they wish they did not.)
You see - the EU doesn't have the trust of the British voter - and that is the straw breaking the camel's back.
If you want to persist with this rather outdated use of left/right wing then consider the governments of the past. Even what you might consider the extreme right of the Conservative party pale into pink pussycats compared to some of them.
This project fear nonsense really is silly.