Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
Wow! If that really the case, which I doubt, we should be piling onto Laddies' 10/1 against the margin of victory being < 1% either way. (12/1 when I first mentioned it a couple of days ago .... sorry!)
I don't agree at all.
This to me is a tell-tale sign that Remain are going to get thumped.
(Which tallies with my anecdotal reports of people switching from Remain to Leave.)
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
That Cameron has to leave the British Isles to find such a crowd tells its own tale.
Yesterday was interesting on PB in terms of the anecdotal evidence offered, assuming this was honestly expressed - what would be the point otherwise? Perhaps there will be more of the same today while we await those polls.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Exactly right. One side exaggerates a bit, the other offers a series of absurd Armageddon forecasts. Not too close, is it?
The difference is one of tense.
If I were to state that it will rain tomorrow, the worst that I could be accused of is an unjustified prediction. Nobody knows for sure what the weather will be like tomorrow because it lies in the future. If, on the other hand, I were to state that it rained yesterday when everybody knows that the sun shone, that would be a lie. It was a past event. We know for sure what happened yesterday.
Similarly, predictions of major economic impacts (not Armageddon - you exaggerate) cannot be lies. They are no more lies than Leave's claims that things will continue pretty much as normal. They refer to future events. The very worst that they can be is unjustified predictions.
On the other hand, Leave's claim that we give £350m a week to the EU is a flat lie. We don't. This is a matter of record and cannot be disputed. Leave are simply lying. That's the difference.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
I haven't really had a chance to look at Gibraltar properly but assuming a reasonable turnout around 160,000 we are only looking at low five figures worth of undecideds and wavering leavers up for grabs. Doesn't seem like the best use of time. But then again if Dave is now toxic in the UK it may not be such a bad idea.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Look at what Cameron (and Remain) do, not what they say.
If he's in Gibraltar it's because he thinks the vote will be very close and that their votes might make the difference.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It could well be that close
If it's that close we're screwed. There will be court challenges that would take months. Florida 2000 all over again, the statistical dead heat.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It could well be that close
Not sure we read too much in this visit. Might well have been on the grid for months.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Also true. Also helps to create a visual / psychological link between Remain and patriotism. A bit of heart.
No one can doubt that Gibraltarians are patriotic.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
If Leave and Remain are within 10k, then the result will be challenged (whoever wins).
Whilst you're right Pulpstar (below) it does look terribly desperate that he's in Gibraltar with c6 campaigning days to go.
You can tell Remain are in deep, deep, trouble.
It must be nice to have a day out to somewhere people aren't throwing brickbats at him.
Or maybe, just maybe, he wants to get away from Osborne and his absurd Budget of Doom. I wonder whether the cracks are beginning to appear in their friendship?
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
Agreed. I'd say it's lost by the looks of that single action.
How can you agree that it's both ultra marginal and lost?
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
Wow! If that really the case, which I doubt, we should be piling onto Laddies' 10/1 against the margin of victory being < 1% either way. (12/1 when I first mentioned it a couple of days ago .... sorry!)
I don't agree at all.
This to me is a tell-tale sign that Remain are going to get thumped.
(Which tallies with my anecdotal reports of people switching from Remain to Leave.)
Go on then Estobar, stick your neck out .... let's hear your prediction!
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Look at what Cameron (and Remain) do, not what they say.
If he's in Gibraltar it's because he thinks the vote will be very close and that their votes might make the difference.
It does seem to suggest it will be close. Not what I expected at this stage in the referendum.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
The 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum was won by just 7000 votes
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
If Leave and Remain are within 10k, then the result will be challenged (whoever wins).
Remain would certainly have bought it with £9m of taxpayers money. They would have lost any moral authority over the result. Without moral authority, there is no political authority either.
I'm going to head off and get some work done but remember your political history folks. When a politician is heading for possible victory they go to the marginals. When they're heading for defeat they shore up their core support. Time and again you see that pattern: think back to Major in 1997, William Hague in 2001 and any number of US politicians heading for a crushing defeat.
I repeat, if the Gibraltar trip is because he needs those votes then he's in real trouble.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It could well be that close
Not sure we read too much in this visit. Might well have been on the grid for months.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
Wow! If that really the case, which I doubt, we should be piling onto Laddies' 10/1 against the margin of victory being < 1% either way. (12/1 when I first mentioned it a couple of days ago .... sorry!)
I don't agree at all.
This to me is a tell-tale sign that Remain are going to get thumped.
(Which tallies with my anecdotal reports of people switching from Remain to Leave.)
Go on then Estobar, stick your neck out .... let's hear your prediction!
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
If we stay In it looks more likely than not Scotland, maybe even Gibralter, will have made the difference
I bet the SNP are hoping that doesn't happen. I'd be disappointed if English and Welsh politicians start complaining about being kept in the EU by the Scots. I'd rather this was brought up at opportune moments in the future when the SNP complain about being ruled by London.
Indeed it would switch the anti establishment energy and momentum straight from the SNP to UKIP, Scottish nationalism would be a bit more muted and English nationalism a bit more vocal
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
The polls don't sample ex-pats, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar though so I'll need to adjust for those.
Between them, they could be worth 250,000 net votes to Remain.
That's very much on the upside
I agree. I just don't know how many ex-pats will have registered (I hadn't realised it was as few as 106,000 in 2015).
Anecdotal evidence (not data!) from the sandpit that a lot of expat Brits have registered this year, for the referendum. It's been a topic of conversation in the bars for a couple of months now. I'd expect the 106k to be a lot higher, along with the turnout.
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
The polls don't sample ex-pats, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar though so I'll need to adjust for those.
Between them, they could be worth 250,000 net votes to Remain.
That's very much on the upside
I agree. I just don't know how many ex-pats will have registered (I hadn't realised it was as few as 106,000 in 2015).
Anecdotal evidence (not data!) from the sandpit that a lot of expat Brits have registered this year, for the referendum. It's been a topic of conversation in the bars for a couple of months now. I'd expect the 106k to be a lot higher, along with the turnout.
How do you estimate they'll split between Remain and Leave?
I'm going to head off and get some work done but remember your political history folks. When a politician is heading for possible victory they go to the marginals. When they're heading for defeat they shore up their core support. Time and again you see that pattern: think back to Major in 1997, William Hague in 2001 and any number of US politicians heading for a crushing defeat.
I repeat, if the Gibraltar trip is because he needs those votes then he's in real trouble.
Have a good day.
But, the country is one constituency this time. Firing up core supporters matters.
The trip shows that he thinks there's a real chance of losing, not that he's written it off.
The sad thing about that is that if he had shown some decorum Cameron could have steered the ship through to the autumn.
By his vile words and actions he has condemned himself.
Quite - all totally unnecessary self-harm. I still don't understand it.
He knew it would be close. He knew if he lost he would be toast. He wasn't willing to sit back and hope others won it for him, he felt if his premiership was at stake he had to do something. So he decided to go scorched earth.
It makes total sense. It might well be based on faulty assumptions, but viewed as the actions of a man who feared he might lose, his unwillingness to essentially sit things out and his decision to go at it very hard instead are quite rational even if they were wrong.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
Wow! If that really the case, which I doubt, we should be piling onto Laddies' 10/1 against the margin of victory being < 1% either way. (12/1 when I first mentioned it a couple of days ago .... sorry!)
I don't agree at all.
This to me is a tell-tale sign that Remain are going to get thumped.
(Which tallies with my anecdotal reports of people switching from Remain to Leave.)
Go on then Estobar, stick your neck out .... let's hear your prediction!
Leave 58% Remain 41% 1% spoilt
Just for my interest - did you previously post here as Speedy?
I'm going to head off and get some work done but remember your political history folks. When a politician is heading for possible victory they go to the marginals. When they're heading for defeat they shore up their core support. Time and again you see that pattern: think back to Major in 1997, William Hague in 2001 and any number of US politicians heading for a crushing defeat.
I repeat, if the Gibraltar trip is because he needs those votes then he's in real trouble.
Have a good day.
Those were general elections this is a referendum when you need your core support to turnout en masse as every vote counts, Cameron could lose provincial England by a near landslide and win if he wins Scotland and London and NI and Gibraltar by a clear landslide
Unilever have just written to their employees instructing them how to vote explaining while the vote is a personal matter, as a business they favour remaining in the EU.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
If Leave and Remain are within 10k, then the result will be challenged (whoever wins).
Remain would certainly have bought it with £9m of taxpayers money. They would have lost any moral authority over the result. Without moral authority, there is no political authority either.
The 9milion was wrong, but people have had ample opportunity to hear rebuttals of all remain points - if remain still wins the only people to blame are the voters., particularly given the lies told on all sides.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
The 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum was won by just 7000 votes
Scaled up to UK-wide level, though, that would be 140,000. Close, but not Gibraltar close.
Don't waste PB time by replying that it's all a pack of lies written by a metropolitan elite who have a vested interest in sucking up to big business. Just ignore the link if you feel like that.
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
The polls don't sample ex-pats, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar though so I'll need to adjust for those.
Between them, they could be worth 250,000 net votes to Remain.
That's very much on the upside
I agree. I just don't know how many ex-pats will have registered (I hadn't realised it was as few as 106,000 in 2015).
Anecdotal evidence (not data!) from the sandpit that a lot of expat Brits have registered this year, for the referendum. It's been a topic of conversation in the bars for a couple of months now. I'd expect the 106k to be a lot higher, along with the turnout.
IIRC, there are 1.3 m ex-pats in the EU, 2.7 m outside. The latter have no dog in this fight, and very few will vote. That leaves the former. Exclude children, and those abroad for more than 15 years, and you might have about 800,000 who are eligible to register.
I'm going to head off and get some work done but remember your political history folks. When a politician is heading for possible victory they go to the marginals. When they're heading for defeat they shore up their core support. Time and again you see that pattern: think back to Major in 1997, William Hague in 2001 and any number of US politicians heading for a crushing defeat.
I repeat, if the Gibraltar trip is because he needs those votes then he's in real trouble.
Have a good day.
Ed Miliband was campaigning in northern marginals on election day last year? Seems more likely Dave thinks hes going to win if he's in Gibraltar. Or he doesn't care any more.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Look at what Cameron (and Remain) do, not what they say.
If he's in Gibraltar it's because he thinks the vote will be very close and that their votes might make the difference.
The votes for REMAIN in Gibraltar are probably in the bag. My guess is that this is just one of those "PR bright ideas". An opportunity for nice photo shoots of Cameron and he will have fewer UK hacks around to quiz him on the spot. He could always invite the Spanish PM along just to add further weight......(oh dear)
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Exactly right. One side exaggerates a bit, the other offers a series of absurd Armageddon forecasts. Not too close, is it?
The difference is one of tense.
If I were to state that it will rain tomorrow, the worst that I could be accused of is an unjustified prediction. Nobody knows for sure what the weather will be like tomorrow because it lies in the future. If, on the other hand, I were to state that it rained yesterday when everybody knows that the sun shone, that would be a lie. It was a past event. We know for sure what happened yesterday.
Similarly, predictions of major economic impacts (not Armageddon - you exaggerate) cannot be lies. They are no more lies than Leave's claims that things will continue pretty much as normal. They refer to future events. The very worst that they can be is unjustified predictions.
On the other hand, Leave's claim that we give £350m a week to the EU is a flat lie. We don't. This is a matter of record and cannot be disputed. Leave are simply lying. That's the difference.
If you think that the govt's appraoch, on behalf of Remain, has been balanced and proportionate, you are entitled to that opinion, and I won't try to change it. Many more people think they have been 'sacremongering'. They have attempted a series of increasingly exaggerated and unbelieveable claims. Its current nadir is the 'Brexit emergency budget', that Osborne knew perfectly well would never be presented to the HoC.
Unilever have just written to their employees instructing them how to vote explaining while the vote is a personal matter, as a business they favour remaining in the EU.
How very patrician of them. What could possibly go wrong...
(I believe BT and RollsRoyce have also done the same. Any others?)
I'm going to head off and get some work done but remember your political history folks. When a politician is heading for possible victory they go to the marginals. When they're heading for defeat they shore up their core support. Time and again you see that pattern: think back to Major in 1997, William Hague in 2001 and any number of US politicians heading for a crushing defeat.
I repeat, if the Gibraltar trip is because he needs those votes then he's in real trouble.
Have a good day.
Ed Miliband was campaigning in northern marginals on election day last year? Seems more likely Dave thinks hes going to win if he's in Gibraltar. Or he doesn't care any more.
I reckon it could be the cheap fags on offer there, as he has gone through his supply over the past couple of weeks.
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
The polls don't sample ex-pats, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar though so I'll need to adjust for those.
Between them, they could be worth 250,000 net votes to Remain.
That's very much on the upside
I agree. I just don't know how many ex-pats will have registered (I hadn't realised it was as few as 106,000 in 2015).
I think of the remaining effects, bottling is the biggest.
If we attribute the discrepancy between the final polls and the results in Quebec 1995 to bottling, then bottling is a seriously big effect and can wipe out a 6 or 7 per cent lead in the polls.
So, if the polling is accurate, Remain could still do it.
They have to create a Climate of Fear, though. Panic in the Streets, Night of the Living Dead, Invasion of the Bodysnatchers.
Cameron lost it the fay he put a very orominent MEP up against the wall and verbally and physically abused him when the MEP said he was on the Leave side. That individual at that point lost all respect for DC as did a lot if my friends and colleagues when they heard about it. There will be many at the higher echelons of the Tory party pleased ti see him and what he stands for go wven though it may be to the long term detriment of the party. Bullying lies at the heart of this govt and it needs to be stamped out now.
Don't waste PB time by replying that it's all a pack of lies written by a metropolitan elite who have a vested interest in sucking up to big business. Just ignore the link if you feel like that.
Hey some facts at last:
The transfers to the EU are not equivalent to £350m a week. That’s a figure often cited by the Leave campaign ahead of the 23 June referendum on membership. But the number has been discredited by the UK Statistics Authority.
So is a bill equivalent to £8.5bn a year worth it?
It certainly hasn’t damaged Britain’s economy. In fact, since the UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973, Britain has done relatively well, outperforming the EU’s largest economies, Germany, France and Italy – and the US.
Britain's EU membership has been a good period for the economy.
Whilst you're right Pulpstar (below) it does look terribly desperate that he's in Gibraltar with c6 campaigning days to go.
You can tell Remain are in deep, deep, trouble.
"You can tell Remain are in deep, deep, trouble."
Well, I can agree with that, and I'm a Remainer.
Likewise. I think Leave's lies are going to win it for them and chaos is likely to ensure. Time to batten the hatches.
Is this chaos that you forecast include WW3, mass starvation, a plague of frogs or a shortage of M&Ms? We must be told!
It involves political turmoil and consequent lack of leadership during a time of falling tax receipts and rising unemployment, possibly leading to collapsing currency and civil disorder.
I'm going to head off and get some work done but remember your political history folks. When a politician is heading for possible victory they go to the marginals. When they're heading for defeat they shore up their core support. Time and again you see that pattern: think back to Major in 1997, William Hague in 2001 and any number of US politicians heading for a crushing defeat.
I repeat, if the Gibraltar trip is because he needs those votes then he's in real trouble.
Have a good day.
Ed Miliband was campaigning in northern marginals on election day last year? Seems more likely Dave thinks hes going to win if he's in Gibraltar. Or he doesn't care any more.
I reckon it could be the cheap fags on offer there, as he has gone through his supply over the past couple of weeks.
Nah... Dave will be ok whatever...George maybe not so much. Handy to have a sacrificial lamb.
IMHO Theresa May would be a better choice, she's made a point of keeping her nose clean in the referendum campaign and would command the respect of the whole Parliamentary party.
A temp pm from the lords would be kind of amusing, and might have a certain appeal as a stopgap as if they wanted to take over full time it would be much harder. But may seems more likely.
I maintain even if he wins Cameron only avoids a challenge by sacking Osborne and stepping down for a year. He might try that if leave win but I doubt it.
I still think he's been a better pm than Boris is likely to be.
Having sat opened mouthed watching it unfold, then sat with a growing grin on my face reading how badly it backfired I've reached the following conclusions about yesterday's punishment budget:
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
Whilst you're right Pulpstar (below) it does look terribly desperate that he's in Gibraltar with c6 campaigning days to go.
You can tell Remain are in deep, deep, trouble.
"You can tell Remain are in deep, deep, trouble."
Well, I can agree with that, and I'm a Remainer.
Likewise. I think Leave's lies are going to win it for them and chaos is likely to ensure. Time to batten the hatches.
Is this chaos that you forecast include WW3, mass starvation, a plague of frogs or a shortage of M&Ms? We must be told!
It involves political turmoil and consequent lack of leadership during a time of falling tax receipts and rising unemployment, possibly leading to collapsing currency and civil disorder.
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
The polls don't sample ex-pats, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar though so I'll need to adjust for those.
Between them, they could be worth 250,000 net votes to Remain.
That's very much on the upside
I agree. I just don't know how many ex-pats will have registered (I hadn't realised it was as few as 106,000 in 2015).
Anecdotal evidence (not data!) from the sandpit that a lot of expat Brits have registered this year, for the referendum. It's been a topic of conversation in the bars for a couple of months now. I'd expect the 106k to be a lot higher, along with the turnout.
How do you estimate they'll split between Remain and Leave?
Out here probably 75-25 in favour of Leave. But the demographics of Brits in Dubai and Singapore are very different to those in France and Spain - and there's way more of them in the latter places.
I suppose one possibility for the polls not moving i.e. money going on Remain, is that the 'liberal progessives' just cannot contemplate anything other than their opinions being right. Such narrow mindedness appears in all their undertakings, when you think about it, and they just cannot cope with any contrarian views. I think its due to being brought up in a totally safe and risk-free environment.
Don't waste PB time by replying that it's all a pack of lies written by a metropolitan elite who have a vested interest in sucking up to big business. Just ignore the link if you feel like that.
I take it from your comment that the FT has not found any fundamental problems with the EU that warrant us LEAVing and the FT also does not state that the EURO is a dangerously bad idea that is destroying economies in the eurozone? (flying pigs anyone?)
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It could well be that close
If it's that close we're screwed. There will be court challenges that would take months. Florida 2000 all over again, the statistical dead heat.
Very possible, Florida was absurd, 500 votes in it out of a Florida electorate of 6 million and a US electorate of almost 50 million
Through its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the EU works with its southern and eastern neighbours to achieve the closest possible political association and the greatest possible degree of economic integration.
Don't waste PB time by replying that it's all a pack of lies written by a metropolitan elite who have a vested interest in sucking up to big business. Just ignore the link if you feel like that.
Out of interest, rottenborough, have you had any direct experience of the EU in your professional life ? And if so, has it been positive ?
I ask because I used to be moderately pro-EU, and indeed spent many weeks in Brussels over the last few years as a paid consultant. (Seriously well paid).
It is what I saw in Brussels that turned me against the EU.
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
The polls don't sample ex-pats, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar though so I'll need to adjust for those.
Between them, they could be worth 250,000 net votes to Remain.
That's very much on the upside
I agree. I just don't know how many ex-pats will have registered (I hadn't realised it was as few as 106,000 in 2015).
I think of the remaining effects, bottling is the biggest.
If we attribute the discrepancy between the final polls and the results in Quebec 1995 to bottling, then bottling is a seriously big effect and can wipe out a 6 or 7 per cent lead in the polls.
So, if the polling is accurate, Remain could still do it.
They have to create a Climate of Fear, though. Panic in the Streets, Night of the Living Dead, Invasion of the Bodysnatchers.
The best example is Scotland. The Unionists were about 5% ahead on average in the final polls, but won by 10%. Leave have to be ahead by 6% on average to win, IMHO.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
If Leave and Remain are within 10k, then the result will be challenged (whoever wins).
Remain would certainly have bought it with £9m of taxpayers money. They would have lost any moral authority over the result. Without moral authority, there is no political authority either.
The 9milion was wrong, but people have had ample opportunity to hear rebuttals of all remain points - if remain still wins the only people to blame are the voters., particularly given the lies told on all sides.
A large part of the £9million was actually spent on online adverts.
I suppose one possibility for the polls not moving i.e. money going on Remain, is that the 'liberal progessives' just cannot contemplate anything other than their opinions being right. Such narrow mindedness appears in all their undertakings, when you think about it, and they just cannot cope with any contrarian views. I think its due to being brought up in a totally safe and risk-free environment.
The AB polling group will be voting in large numbers. Expect 90% turnout amongst them.
Having sat opened mouthed watching it unfold, then sat with a growing grin on my face reading how badly it backfired I've reached the following conclusions about yesterday's punishment budget:
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Maybe he just likes being amongst friends - cf Kinnock at the 1992 Sheffield Rally.
Excellent article, Alastair. Where will it lead? To a right-wing Strong Man and the suspension of the Rule of Law. Which three Peebies out of four will cheer to the rafters.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking about in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
Turnout.
Downing Street will be crunching the numbers, getting a decent turnout in Gibraltar "might" make the difference.
There are 20 k votes in Gib, the difference between a poor and a good turnout might be, what, 10 k.
If Dave is on his knees scrabbling for 10 k votes, this isn’t just close, it is ultra-marginal. .
It really could be so close that 10,000 votes make the difference.
If Leave and Remain are within 10k, then the result will be challenged (whoever wins).
Remain would certainly have bought it with £9m of taxpayers money. They would have lost any moral authority over the result. Without moral authority, there is no political authority either.
The 9milion was wrong, but people have had ample opportunity to hear rebuttals of all remain points - if remain still wins the only people to blame are the voters., particularly given the lies told on all sides.
A large part of the £9million was actually spent on online adverts.
The polling would suggest they just burned £9m of taxpayers money in a vanity bonfire....
Cameron lost it the fay he put a very orominent MEP up against the wall and verbally and physically abused him when the MEP said he was on the Leave side. That individual at that point lost all respect for DC as did a lot if my friends and colleagues when they heard about it. There will be many at the higher echelons of the Tory party pleased ti see him and what he stands for go wven though it may be to the long term detriment of the party. Bullying lies at the heart of this govt and it needs to be stamped out now.
You know bullying at the heart of government Wont go away just because Cameron will go, right?
Your go me that many want him and what he stands for gone even if it is to the party's detriment highlights the trouble the party is in. It'd be one thing if they thought prospects would improve, but not all do.
Even Corbynite labour is starting to look viable as clearly any coming together from the Tories will be a lie. A lie like how well Blair and brown got along.
Where the hell is Farron? I would hope the LDs have plans to take advantage of this mess. Whether they have resources to do it, to be heard, is another matter.
The situation will be much less stable if Remain wins by a whisker. There will be a widespread, and entirely reasonable view, that it was not a clean contest.
And if LEAVE win by a whisker?
On 'clean contest' I take it you're not referring to the '£350 million spend on our NHS instead' claim, or the 'Turkey is joining the EU'?
Exactly right. One side exaggerates a bit, the other offers a series of absurd Armageddon forecasts. Not too close, is it?
The difference is one of tense.
If I were to state that it will rain tomorrow, the worst that I could be accused of is an unjustified prediction. Nobody knows for sure what the weather will be like tomorrow because it lies in the future. If, on the other hand, I were to state that it rained yesterday when everybody knows that the sun shone, that would be a lie. It was a past event. We know for sure what happened yesterday.
Similarly, predictions of major economic impacts (not Armageddon - you exaggerate) cannot be lies. They are no more lies than Leave's claims that things will continue pretty much as normal. They refer to future events. The very worst that they can be is unjustified predictions.
On the other hand, Leave's claim that we give £350m a week to the EU is a flat lie. We don't. This is a matter of record and cannot be disputed. Leave are simply lying. That's the difference.
If you think that the govt's appraoch, on behalf of Remain, has been balanced and proportionate, you are entitled to that opinion, and I won't try to change it. Many more people think they have been 'sacremongering'. They have attempted a series of increasingly exaggerated and unbelieveable claims. Its current nadir is the 'Brexit emergency budget', that Osborne knew perfectly well would never be presented to the HoC.
Leave have been just as ridiculous, gangs of sex crazed migrants rampaging through English towns, the Turkey bullshit, 350 million, going to reduce immigration, IDS resigning for ethical reasons(probably the most ludicrous claim in the whole debate) .
Having sat opened mouthed watching it unfold, then sat with a growing grin on my face reading how badly it backfired I've reached the following conclusions about yesterday's punishment budget:
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
I'm voting to Leave.
Sorry, you did that. But our voters, in the short term, at least, will be hurt the most. Expect unemployment to begin to rise as Britain becomes increasingly uncompetitive.
I am a member of the Labour party since 1981. Only between 2003 and 2007,I was not a member.
The sad thing about that is that if he had shown some decorum Cameron could have steered the ship through to the autumn.
By his vile words and actions he has condemned himself.
Quite - all totally unnecessary self-harm. I still don't understand it.
He knew it would be close. He knew if he lost he would be toast. He wasn't willing to sit back and hope others won it for him, he felt if his premiership was at stake he had to do something. So he decided to go scorched earth.
It makes total sense. It might well be based on faulty assumptions, but viewed as the actions of a man who feared he might lose, his unwillingness to essentially sit things out and his decision to go at it very hard instead are quite rational even if they were wrong.
I can only think that Cameron was led astray but Osborne in particular. They saw how project fear worked in Scotland's referendum and decided to duplicate that in this referendum. A PM that selects such bad advisors and is easily led astray is a bad Leader.
4/1 has to be value, there's no way his odds won't come in at some point between now and November.
It's more likely than not that will be the case - but there's also the non-negligible possibility that he goes out to 1000 before a single chad is punched.
The sad thing about that is that if he had shown some decorum Cameron could have steered the ship through to the autumn.
By his vile words and actions he has condemned himself.
Quite - all totally unnecessary self-harm. I still don't understand it.
He knew it would be close. He knew if he lost he would be toast. He wasn't willing to sit back and hope others won it for him, he felt if his premiership was at stake he had to do something. So he decided to go scorched earth.
It makes total sense. It might well be based on faulty assumptions, but viewed as the actions of a man who feared he might lose, his unwillingness to essentially sit things out and his decision to go at it very hard instead are quite rational even if they were wrong.
I can only think that Cameron was led astray but Osborne in particular. They saw how project fear worked in Scotland's referendum and decided to duplicate that in this referendum. A PM that selects such bad advisors and is easily led astray is a bad Leader.
Mind you I can't see how 'the EU Project Hope' would have done any better
Cameron lost it the fay he put a very orominent MEP up against the wall and verbally and physically abused him when the MEP said he was on the Leave side. That individual at that point lost all respect for DC as did a lot if my friends and colleagues when they heard about it. There will be many at the higher echelons of the Tory party pleased ti see him and what he stands for go wven though it may be to the long term detriment of the party. Bullying lies at the heart of this govt and it needs to be stamped out now.
.....Where the hell is Farron? I would hope the LDs have plans to take advantage of this mess. Whether they have resources to do it, to be heard, is another matter.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/work/employment-regulations/news/76157/excl-lib-dems-slammed-ex-employees-over-working "Elsewhere the review says the party “break[s] workplace safety and employment laws all the time, and [will] threaten to fire you if you complain about working conditions for 'not being loyal'". It complains that staff on 40-hour contracts were expected to work 60 hours a week with no extra pay, which it brands “way, way, way” too low for the level of responsibility."
Honestly if leave win you are going to be very disappointed. The leave campaign have made a number of ludicrous promises and have not detailed what they will do in terms of immigration. People (like you) think there will be such massive savings that we can invest in Public Services more. A huge part of the Leave vote will expect an end to immigration and the removal of large swathes of immigrants from the EU (despite denials on here this is what people think) This will just not happen. Immigration will continue at similar levels to we have now, no one will be forced to return, We will take a ludicrous risk with our fantastically performing economy, (how will us leaving the EU improve the economy from where we are now) and all the promises that the leave campaign have made will come back to haunt them.
I have read this site with incredulity overthe last few days at the love of the new messiah Gove and the hatred of Osborne.
Lets compare their performance in government.
When Gove was education secretary his mate Cameron who does not do reshuuffles had to sack him from that role due to his performance and the hatred teachers had for him.
Osborne was dealt a terrible economic hand in 2010. Despite this he has outperformed anyone’s expectations and all comparable economies Financial Ministers in the past 6 years. We now have very low unemployment, record employment, low inflation, low interest rates, a growing economy, rising wages. In short what he has achieved through an amazing balancing act is sensational. And all you sit at home Finance Ministers can do is criticise him and laud the failure Gove just because he tells lies in a professional way. Osborne should have a statue erected in Trafalgar Square. These are halcyon days. If a chancellor is getting the criticism Osborne does when he has done such an incredible job, what would happen if a chancellor did a bad job.
Meeks: Whatever happens next week, politics is changing, perhaps irrevocably.
GOOD.
Yesterday was an all time low for politics, the Chancellor acting like a retreating army laying mines as the enemy advances, he is despicable.
And I've no idea when or if Cameron will stand down but it doesn't matter, he hasn't governed us for a year, he's been too busy grovelling to influential people and desperately trying to save his own career.
I disliked Blair and Brown, was initially suspicious of Cameron, but now hold him and his running mate in utter contempt. And where is he today? In Gibralter, back slapping with the last few people that appear to have any time for him.
Just clear off Cameron, you're a disgrace.
Why is Cameron dicking around in Gibraltar when a significant Remain vote is guaranteed.
The visual is of Cameron surrounded by a genuinely non-stagemanaged crowd that is hugely enthusiastic for the EU.
Good pictures.
Also true. Also helps to create a visual / psychological link between Remain and patriotism. A bit of heart.
No one can doubt that Gibraltarians are patriotic.
No doubt - but it is funny that they want to vote for the side whose victory would mean that it is more likely they will be handed over to Spain.
Just done a quick binomial model based off all the polling in the last 7 days.
If the polls are true, and my workings correct (Somewhat sketchy assumptions) I make it that leave is on 52% with the probability of Brexit at 87%.
The polls don't sample ex-pats, Northern Ireland or Gibraltar though so I'll need to adjust for those.
Between them, they could be worth 250,000 net votes to Remain.
That's very much on the upside
I agree. I just don't know how many ex-pats will have registered (I hadn't realised it was as few as 106,000 in 2015).
I think of the remaining effects, bottling is the biggest.
If we attribute the discrepancy between the final polls and the results in Quebec 1995 to bottling, then bottling is a seriously big effect and can wipe out a 6 or 7 per cent lead in the polls.
So, if the polling is accurate, Remain could still do it.
They have to create a Climate of Fear, though. Panic in the Streets, Night of the Living Dead, Invasion of the Bodysnatchers.
The best example is Scotland. The Unionists were about 5% ahead on average in the final polls, but won by 10%. Leave have to be ahead by 6% on average to win, IMHO.
I'd put it at a little less, due to less chance for residual affection for the union to be behind a late switch, and only the economic fears to do it.
The sad thing about that is that if he had shown some decorum Cameron could have steered the ship through to the autumn.
By his vile words and actions he has condemned himself.
Quite - all totally unnecessary self-harm. I still don't understand it.
He knew it would be close. He knew if he lost he would be toast. He wasn't willing to sit back and hope others won it for him, he felt if his premiership was at stake he had to do something. So he decided to go scorched earth.
It makes total sense. It might well be based on faulty assumptions, but viewed as the actions of a man who feared he might lose, his unwillingness to essentially sit things out and his decision to go at it very hard instead are quite rational even if they were wrong.
I can only think that Cameron was led astray but Osborne in particular. They saw how project fear worked in Scotland's referendum and decided to duplicate that in this referendum. A PM that selects such bad advisors and is easily led astray is a bad Leader.
Mind you I can't see how 'the EU Project Hope' would have done any better
I think that's the problem. The EU isn't a particularly lovable creature.
I also think Cameron and Osborne's passion for the EU (just like Corbyn's) isn't particularly strong, whereas passions on the Leave side are.
That's why the Leave campaign has felt more positive, enthusiastic and fired-up.
Excellent article, Alastair. Where will it lead? To a right-wing Strong Man and the suspension of the Rule of Law. Which three Peebies out of four will cheer to the rafters.
That is a new threat from REMAIN, "we are getting a dictator". Is that instead of the 5 EU dictators unelected (by the UK people)?
The sad thing about that is that if he had shown some decorum Cameron could have steered the ship through to the autumn.
By his vile words and actions he has condemned himself.
Quite - all totally unnecessary self-harm. I still don't understand it.
He knew it would be close. He knew if he lost he would be toast. He wasn't willing to sit back and hope others won it for him, he felt if his premiership was at stake he had to do something. So he decided to go scorched earth.
It makes total sense. It might well be based on faulty assumptions, but viewed as the actions of a man who feared he might lose, his unwillingness to essentially sit things out and his decision to go at it very hard instead are quite rational even if they were wrong.
I can only think that Cameron was led astray but Osborne in particular. They saw how project fear worked in Scotland's referendum and decided to duplicate that in this referendum. A PM that selects such bad advisors and is easily led astray is a bad Leader.
As Alistair Meeks says, when you're performing karaoke, you have to belt it out with conviction.
But, he would have done better to follow Lynton Crosby's advice. Walk away from the negotiations, before resuming them later.
4/1 has to be value, there's no way his odds won't come in at some point between now and November.
It's more likely than not that will be the case - but there's also the non-negligible possibility that he goes out to 1000 before a single chad is punched.
He is Donald Trump after all. You're probably right that there's a non-negligible chance that he either puts his foot in it so massively that it sinks the campaign, or a Republican rebellion turfs him out at the convention. Still think the 4/1 is value though, there are just as many chances for Hillary to screw up as there are for Trump.
There's still a elephant in the room that Remain are skirting over. Tony opened the gates for social reasons not for economic reasons, but Remain don't want to admit that. It's their guilty secret.
It's a legitimate view. We may be better with increased diversity. The economic benefits (only available to some of the country) aren't the main issue. Come one, come all, you're all welcome.
Mr P, for one, seems to buy into this, but Remain try to hide it, because it is electorally unpopular. It's those racists, you see.
Much of the population (the plebs) see competition for jobs, crowded schools, longer waiting lists for everything. The Metropolitan, liberal Utopia passes them by completely.
So Remain only have an economic argument that is based on forecasts not facts. Rubbing people's noses in anything isn't a recipe for electoral success.
So .... the Establishment wants something that is unpopular. How do you sell it? Tell the people it's in their best interests? That isn't working, Tell them the wardrobe monster will get them? You've already lost credibility with your first attempt. Threaten them? Risky but needs must when you're behind.
Yet this is a self-made problem. If Remain had come out and said. "We're voting for an internationalist outlook, come along with us?" I'd have much more respect for them. But deception as a politician's stock in trade, and their default position.
Comments
This to me is a tell-tale sign that Remain are going to get thumped.
(Which tallies with my anecdotal reports of people switching from Remain to Leave.)
Perhaps that arch appeaser of the EU, Cameron, will appease even more and give Gibralter back to the Spanish in a fit of pique.
Perhaps there will be more of the same today while we await those polls.
If I were to state that it will rain tomorrow, the worst that I could be accused of is an unjustified prediction. Nobody knows for sure what the weather will be like tomorrow because it lies in the future. If, on the other hand, I were to state that it rained yesterday when everybody knows that the sun shone, that would be a lie. It was a past event. We know for sure what happened yesterday.
Similarly, predictions of major economic impacts (not Armageddon - you exaggerate) cannot be lies. They are no more lies than Leave's claims that things will continue pretty much as normal. They refer to future events. The very worst that they can be is unjustified predictions.
On the other hand, Leave's claim that we give £350m a week to the EU is a flat lie. We don't. This is a matter of record and cannot be disputed. Leave are simply lying. That's the difference.
If he's in Gibraltar it's because he thinks the vote will be very close and that their votes might make the difference.
No one can doubt that Gibraltarians are patriotic.
Well, I can agree with that, and I'm a Remainer.
Or maybe, just maybe, he wants to get away from Osborne and his absurd Budget of Doom. I wonder whether the cracks are beginning to appear in their friendship?
Donald trump is currently 4/1 for POTUS.
The night before Iowa his POTUS odds were... 4/1
What a strange betting event.
I repeat, if the Gibraltar trip is because he needs those votes then he's in real trouble.
Have a good day.
Although you have to wonder how a campaign could lose with leaflets like this...
@MichaelPDeacon: Delighted to have received the Vote Leave leaflet implying that Syria and Iraq are "set to join the EU" https://t.co/8ZdwstVyH5
@owenblacker: @SophieWarnes @MichaelPDeacon I can outdo that. I scanned a leaflet that came through my door with this map in. https://t.co/E1rrblaoyq
Libya will be joining the EU...
Fuckwittery on an epic scale
Remain 41%
1% spoilt
@politicshome: Vote Leave threatened with legal action after 'implying companies back Brexit': https://t.co/1WeU6ypmkG https://t.co/ntB7dTmR7r
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36544875
Banish Bertoli!
Cancel Comfort!
Demonise Domestos!
Demolish Dove!
F-off Flora!
Hate Hellmans!
Knock Knorr!
Lose Liptons!
Loathe Lynx!
Marginalise Magnum!
Punish Persil!
Sack Surf!
The trip shows that he thinks there's a real chance of losing, not that he's written it off.
It makes total sense. It might well be based on faulty assumptions, but viewed as the actions of a man who feared he might lose, his unwillingness to essentially sit things out and his decision to go at it very hard instead are quite rational even if they were wrong.
https://ig.ft.com/sites/the-uk-in-europe/
Don't waste PB time by replying that it's all a pack of lies written by a metropolitan elite who have a vested interest in sucking up to big business. Just ignore the link if you feel like that.
(I believe BT and RollsRoyce have also done the same. Any others?)
If we attribute the discrepancy between the final polls and the results in Quebec 1995 to bottling, then bottling is a seriously big effect and can wipe out a 6 or 7 per cent lead in the polls.
So, if the polling is accurate, Remain could still do it.
They have to create a Climate of Fear, though. Panic in the Streets, Night of the Living Dead, Invasion of the Bodysnatchers.
There will be many at the higher echelons of the Tory party pleased ti see him and what he stands for go wven though it may be to the long term detriment of the party.
Bullying lies at the heart of this govt and it needs to be stamped out now.
The transfers to the EU are not equivalent to £350m a week. That’s a figure often cited by the Leave campaign ahead of the 23 June referendum on membership. But the number has been discredited by the UK Statistics Authority.
So is a bill equivalent to £8.5bn a year worth it?
It certainly hasn’t damaged Britain’s economy. In fact, since the UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973, Britain has done relatively well, outperforming the EU’s largest economies, Germany, France and Italy – and the US.
Britain's EU membership has been a good period for the economy.
I maintain even if he wins Cameron only avoids a challenge by sacking Osborne and stepping down for a year. He might try that if leave win but I doubt it.
I still think he's been a better pm than Boris is likely to be.
1. Osborne is a gambler. He knows he is finished if Leave wins or even if Remain scrapes it. So one last throw of the dice and damn the consequences. That it has gone down so badly was always a risk. But if you are losing anyway...
2. Darling disgraced himself and his wing of the Labour movement by standing on a platform endorsing Osborne's punishment budget. A man who served in Cabinet throughout the Blair and Brown years, who actually did a decent job as Chancellor when the banks fell over in 2008 (he was in charge that afternoon when RBS informed the Bank of England they had run out of money). And now this - endorsing a position which the party quickly disassociated itself from.
After the referendum there are plenty of Continuity New Labour MPs and their supporters in the party ready to move on Corbyn - any loss will be "his fault" one told me last week. Thats the wing of the party who presumably want to associate themselves with Osborne and his punishment budget, just as they associated themselves with Osborne's welfare cuts when Harperson decided Labour would abstain
3. I am done with this campaign. I've done street stalls and door knocking for remain. Its my party policy and the "happy clappy EU is wonderful" group seem to be driving things. But its not what a significant chunk of our voters want, and the sneering from happy clappists towards them is getting offensive. The longer the Labour party continues to ignore what its supporters want AND patronise them for disagreeing, the worse it will be for us.
A vote for an EU where privatisation and unfettered free markets above the interests and whole nations where you can't vote out the commission or the council of ministers is not democracy. Nor are embedded workers rights any use if the privatise marketise directive has removed your ability to get a job - and if its bad for people here its nothing compared to places like Spain with its 50% youth unemployment.
Like Corbyn, I ignored my own instincts and went with the majority. But no more.
I'm voting to Leave.
(flying pigs anyone?)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Neighbourhood_Policy
http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/
Through its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the EU works with its southern and eastern neighbours to achieve the closest possible political association and the greatest possible degree of economic integration.
I ask because I used to be moderately pro-EU, and indeed spent many weeks in Brussels over the last few years as a paid consultant. (Seriously well paid).
It is what I saw in Brussels that turned me against the EU.
Your go me that many want him and what he stands for gone even if it is to the party's detriment highlights the trouble the party is in. It'd be one thing if they thought prospects would improve, but not all do.
Even Corbynite labour is starting to look viable as clearly any coming together from the Tories will be a lie. A lie like how well Blair and brown got along.
Where the hell is Farron? I would hope the LDs have plans to take advantage of this mess. Whether they have resources to do it, to be heard, is another matter.
I am a member of the Labour party since 1981. Only between 2003 and 2007,I was not a member.
"Elsewhere the review says the party “break[s] workplace safety and employment laws all the time, and [will] threaten to fire you if you complain about working conditions for 'not being loyal'". It complains that staff on 40-hour contracts were expected to work 60 hours a week with no extra pay, which it brands “way, way, way” too low for the level of responsibility."
What Leave will the country have voted for?
Leave where we Take Control.
Honestly if leave win you are going to be very disappointed. The leave campaign have made a number of ludicrous promises and have not detailed what they will do in terms of immigration. People (like you) think there will be such massive savings that we can invest in Public Services more. A huge part of the Leave vote will expect an end to immigration and the removal of large swathes of immigrants from the EU (despite denials on here this is what people think) This will just not happen. Immigration will continue at similar levels to we have now, no one will be forced to return, We will take a ludicrous risk with our fantastically performing economy, (how will us leaving the EU improve the economy from where we are now) and all the promises that the leave campaign have made will come back to haunt them.
I have read this site with incredulity overthe last few days at the love of the new messiah Gove and the hatred of Osborne.
Lets compare their performance in government.
When Gove was education secretary his mate Cameron who does not do reshuuffles had to sack him from that role due to his performance and the hatred teachers had for him.
Osborne was dealt a terrible economic hand in 2010. Despite this he has outperformed anyone’s expectations and all comparable economies Financial Ministers in the past 6 years.
We now have very low unemployment, record employment, low inflation, low interest rates, a growing economy, rising wages. In short what he has achieved through an amazing balancing act is sensational. And all you sit at home Finance Ministers can do is criticise him and laud the failure Gove just because he tells lies in a professional way.
Osborne should have a statue erected in Trafalgar Square. These are halcyon days. If a chancellor is getting the criticism Osborne does when he has done such an incredible job, what would happen if a chancellor did a bad job.
I also think Cameron and Osborne's passion for the EU (just like Corbyn's) isn't particularly strong, whereas passions on the Leave side are.
That's why the Leave campaign has felt more positive, enthusiastic and fired-up.
But, he would have done better to follow Lynton Crosby's advice. Walk away from the negotiations, before resuming them later.
It's a legitimate view. We may be better with increased diversity. The economic benefits (only available to some of the country) aren't the main issue. Come one, come all, you're all welcome.
Mr P, for one, seems to buy into this, but Remain try to hide it, because it is electorally unpopular. It's those racists, you see.
Much of the population (the plebs) see competition for jobs, crowded schools, longer waiting lists for everything. The Metropolitan, liberal Utopia passes them by completely.
So Remain only have an economic argument that is based on forecasts not facts. Rubbing people's noses in anything isn't a recipe for electoral success.
So .... the Establishment wants something that is unpopular. How do you sell it? Tell the people it's in their best interests? That isn't working, Tell them the wardrobe monster will get them? You've already lost credibility with your first attempt. Threaten them? Risky but needs must when you're behind.
Yet this is a self-made problem. If Remain had come out and said. "We're voting for an internationalist outlook, come along with us?" I'd have much more respect for them. But deception as a politician's stock in trade, and their default position.
Oh what a tangled web ...
Geez, the swing is incredible.