For many people, the ideal result would be Remain 50.01%, Leave 49.99%.
If it's a draw who gets the casting vote - Speaker Bercow?
I was going to say "the status quo would prevail", which in this context would mean continued membership. But I checked, and amazingly (source):
"A government spokesperson told ITV News: 'It is vanishingly unlikely that there would be tie, with exactly equal numbers of votes cast for each outcome, and there is no specific provision for one under the European Union Referendum Act 2015 or the Political Parties, Elections and Referendum Act 2000.'"
Wow! What pathetic drafting! Obviously a tie is extremely unlikely, but a hanging chads scenario where a broken down van carrying a ballot box or an egregious instance of cheating make all the difference isn't.
Would there not be a demand for a recount? Is there provision for such a demand if it's very, very close? What is very, very close?
Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.
I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.
I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.
If you take the certain to vote figures in that STV poll then repercentage them it's a fraction off 70/30 for Remain. Never the less the " Trend is your friend " and it's a big shift to Leave since the last poll.
More a big shift from Remain to Undecided? Leave appears to be a moe increase.
I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?
(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)
"Monsieur le Ministre, is there any glimmer of a smidgen of hope that France might eventually get round to implementing a tiny bit of the labour-market reforms which every man and his dog can see are absolutely vital if the country is get out of the doldrums?"
One reason I'm voting Leave is that I don't more houses built in my village (or yours). I'd be delighted for house prices to come down.
If you build ten £500,000 houses on 5 acres of farmland, the country is £5M 'richer'. But are we better off? Remainers say, yes, for sure. Leavers, not so certain....
The developers are £500,000 better off - certainly. Of course we have lost 5 acres of productive farmland (increase in imports) and that much surface area for water to soak into the ground - increasing flood risks and erosion.
Here's a Q for Remainiacs. Let us assume you are right and there is a downturn for a year or two or three. Would avoiding a short term challenge like this justify a 'decision for the ages' about who we are and who gets to govern us? The scaremongering seems to me to be saying essentially 'I'll sell my soul for 30 pieces of silver tomorrow'. My own view is that the referendum is the biggest political decision voters have faced in this country for ages and will set a direction of travel for a long, long time. We should not let short-termist issues drive the vote. Do you want to be part of a European superstate by 2040? That's a better way to look at it.
For me personally- no it wouldn't be worth it. I'd vote for a democracy and a recession over a dictatorship every time.
But I don't agree with your analysis that that is what is being voted on. I'm voting remain in the EU- I am not voting for a European Superstate.
Yes you are. Read the treaties.
So if we vote remain on June 23- that's a democratic mandate to join a European superstate?
No need for the EU referendum Act 2011, any UK government seeking to oppose an EU superstate thereafter would be undermining the democratic will of the people of Britain?
Mr. Cide, morris dancers are fearless. If we frolic in lace and bells waving our wiffle sticks in public, do you really mean to suggest I might be afraid of posting a mere rock song to a website?
Mr. Llama, quite. As I said a loooong time ago now, Cameron's claiming he's offering us a choice of ham or razorblade sandwiches. And that he said a few months ago he'd happily eat the razorblades. But now he's realised they're terribly dangerous.
He's definitely lying, the question is only whether it's then or now.
For many people, the ideal result would be Remain 50.01%, Leave 49.99%.
If it's a draw who gets the casting vote - Speaker Bercow?
I was going to say "the status quo would prevail", which in this context would mean continued membership. But I checked, and amazingly (source):
"A government spokesperson told ITV News: 'It is vanishingly unlikely that there would be tie, with exactly equal numbers of votes cast for each outcome, and there is no specific provision for one under the European Union Referendum Act 2015 or the Political Parties, Elections and Referendum Act 2000.'"
Wow! What pathetic drafting! Obviously a tie is extremely unlikely, but a hanging chads scenario where a broken down van carrying a ballot box or an egregious instance of cheating make all the difference isn't.
Would there not be a demand for a recount? Is there provision for such a demand if it's very, very close? What is very, very close?
I think that at the same time as a recount there would be a legal challenge about the Government targeting Remain voters and extending the registration time by 48 hours.
Of course the populace might regard this as whinging after a defeat and then vote heavily for Remain as a response. Close losers don't seem to win re-runs IIRC. (Isn't there talk of a legal challenge in Austria?)
Why would any of the international back and forth of information to prevent terrorism be curtailed by the UK leaving the EU? I'm sure Leave could happily confirm that there will be no easing off in our vigilance in working with other security agencies worldwide.
Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.
Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.
My money is on a prompt invocation.
If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.
If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.
I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.
Yes. Same kind of lie as the referendum promise. We soon got to the bottom of that little ruse, though, didn't we?
Cons Leavers are falling over themselves to say they want Dave to stay. Dave has only said two things about post-Leave: 1) I will invoke Article 50 very quickly; and 2) there will be an emergency budget.
It's a normal politican lie - not one that's particularly important in the great scheme of things. Of course at the moment he will say things that support his cause.
Should there be a vote to Leave - and I am sticking with my nojam of 48-52 to Remain - then the world will have changed and his immediate priorities will be financial stability and negotiating the best exit in the circumstances.
I'd imagine that the BofE will open the discount window and probably have a short of QE ready to go. But equally an emergency budget will be very unlikely - rapid fiscal tightening (which is what Osborne is suggesting) will be more likely to crash the economy than anything else.
re: Article 50 starting the clock immediately simply doesn't benefit anyone. There needs to be a period of reflection, determining who will lead the discussions, deciding what the strategy will be and what the outcome with the greatest utility is. We need to bear in mind that the result will be very close, and you need to govern for the country as a whole, not for the 51% majority.
Requesting the immigration rate to be compatible with what can be absorbed in terms of houses, schools, public services is an incredibly minor request.
That is all many LEAVERs want.
This is hardly an unreasonable request (it is little more than a matter of common sense or reasonable planning for the future). The only people I can see who benefit from completely unlimited immigration are the Stuart (“low wages”) Roses of this world.
Yet, it has provoked a nuclear reaction from Osborne & Cameron with this half-crazy, scorched earth budget.
I hope this budget will be turning point, but not in the way Osborne (or his apologists) believe.
I guess I always thought Dave and George might be bullies. But, now the bullying streak at the heart of the Tory party has become exposed to full public view.
Anecdote FWIW: One of our suppliers drivers from Wolverhampton just reckoned about 80% of Wolverhampton is voting LEAVE. Window Cleaner yesterday who we use in Ellesmere Port, says everyone round here voting out, hasn't met anyone remaining.
And 90% of Twitter is going for Remain
More seriously, I am glad they heeding the warnings of their late, former MP.
What would you expect from twits?
With the 'i' pronounced like an 'a'?
Is that a dialect observation or a suggestion that I'm overly polite?
I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?
(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)
"Monsieur le Ministre, is there any glimmer of a smidgen of hope that France might eventually get round to implementing a tiny bit of the labour-market reforms which every man and his dog can see are absolutely vital if the country is get out of the doldrums?"
According to the excellent Melissa Kidd at Redburn, the French labour market reforms are rather deeper than most Brits think.
Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.
I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.
I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.
Mr. Max, The Queen Elizabeth might come out of the builders yard this year (though I thought it was next) then comes at least a year's worth of sea trials to make sure she actually works. The aeroplanes to fly off of her are still at least two years away and then there will have to be a period of working up (regaining all those skills that were thrown away). I read the other day that the in service date is now expected to be 2022 at the earliest.
Why would any of the international back and forth of information to prevent terrorism be curtailed by the UK leaving the EU? I'm sure Leave could happily confirm that there will be no easing off in our vigilance in working with other security agencies worldwide.
Given that the five eyes agreement doesnt include any EU nations and the enlarged 14 eyes agreement has no EU involvement its clearly bullshit.
Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff 3m3 minutes ago Gaby Hinsliff Retweeted Michael Deacon Experts, eh?Gaby Hinsliff added,
Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon I ask Nigel Farage why he's taken up cigarettes again. Farage: "I think the doctors have got it wrong on smoking" 1 retweet 0 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like More
Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.
I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.
I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.
I doubt we'll have a working aircraft carrier this decade. (I agree with everything else in your post by the way; I was just being pedantic.)
Mr. Cide, morris dancers are fearless. If we frolic in lace and bells waving our wiffle sticks in public, do you really mean to suggest I might be afraid of posting a mere rock song to a website?
Mr. Llama, quite. As I said a loooong time ago now, Cameron's claiming he's offering us a choice of ham or razorblade sandwiches. And that he said a few months ago he'd happily eat the razorblades. But now he's realised they're terribly dangerous.
He's definitely lying, the question is only whether it's then or now.
For many people, the ideal result would be Remain 50.01%, Leave 49.99%.
If it's a draw who gets the casting vote - Speaker Bercow?
I was going to say "the status quo would prevail", which in this context would mean continued membership. But I checked, and amazingly (source):
"A government spokesperson told ITV News: 'It is vanishingly unlikely that there would be tie, with exactly equal numbers of votes cast for each outcome, and there is no specific provision for one under the European Union Referendum Act 2015 or the Political Parties, Elections and Referendum Act 2000.'"
Wow! What pathetic drafting! Obviously a tie is extremely unlikely, but a hanging chads scenario where a broken down van carrying a ballot box or an egregious instance of cheating make all the difference isn't.
Would there not be a demand for a recount? Is there provision for such a demand if it's very, very close? What is very, very close?
If it is considered by the side that in the first instance seems to have lost to be very very close then there certainly will be a demand for a recount. Maybe the US Democratic Party's bigwigs who stitched up Sanders for Clinton and then denied a recount can advise?
In the London mayoral election, the super-duper electronic vote-counting machines, or the software they were programmed with (nice contracts if you can get them), malfunctioned (thousands of votes went to the wrong candidate), causing the result to be delayed for several hours. But Sadiq Khan was recognised to be ahead by a large enough margin for nobody to get especially upset,and he even went and claimed City Hall before the result was announced.
Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.
Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.
My money is on a prompt invocation.
If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.
If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.
I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.
ON the other hand he can legitimately claim he is respecting the result of the referendum he called. No going back. There are practical arguments for triggering Article 50 (minimise uncertainty) as well as arguments for not doing so, as you point out. I am genuinely curious which way he will go.
Addendum - He would only lie if he DIDN'T call Article 50.
No - he's said he will call it immediately.
I spend my life negotiating stuff. You don't create a countdown that doesn't benefit you. I don't believe he has any intention of triggering immediately - and certainly not the scenario to which I was responding to (triggering and then resigning).
If he is saying he will call it immediately, but has no intention of doing so, then that's a lie in my book
Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.
I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.
I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.
I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?
(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)
"Monsieur le Ministre, is there any glimmer of a smidgen of hope that France might eventually get round to implementing a tiny bit of the labour-market reforms which every man and his dog can see are absolutely vital if the country is get out of the doldrums?"
According to the excellent Melissa Kidd at Redburn, the French labour market reforms are rather deeper than most Brits think.
They are at least a start (and to be fair Macron is doing his best to move things in the right direction).
Once again, people are falling over themselves to lap up the rhetoric and not thinking about the reality of a LEAVE vote.
Voting LEAVE starts a process confirmed by the invoking of Article 50 by which Britain will instigate negotiations to leave the European Union. It's a right every state has and I imagine has always had.
Let's talk turmoil and uncertainty - there's plenty of that about all the time. The FTSE fell 12% between December 30th 2015 and February 11th 2016 but the world didn't end and indeed many cheered the slump in world oil prices (apart from those having a daily jibe at the SNP) that was the primary cause.
Whether inside the EU or outside, global financial markets react (or generally over-react) to events. The result of the Spanish election and indeed the upcoming elections in the US and Germany will all cause turmoil and uncertainty let alone other events or a cold winter or a mild winter.
Yes, political uncertainty doesn't help but if memory serves, the stock market surged on the Monday after the 2010 GE not because of the impending Coalition but because of a Greek bailout. We perhaps over-emphasise our importance on the global stage.
On Friday June 24th, the air will be full not of recrimination and fear but reconciliation and hope. Whichever side wins knows it has to a) restore confidence in Government and b) mend fences within parties and throughout Government. That won't be easy and doubtless some of the rancour of the campaign will live on but the winners will be conciliatory (though not on here I suspect) as well as the losers.
In and of itself, the very fact of a result will end uncertainty - we will all know where we stand or what we're standing in depending on your perspective. Reassurance will be everything - whichever side wins will, if they have any sense, be offering that by the bucket load. </blockquo.
A remarkably panglossian view of a lengthy, complex and high stakes divorce process with myriad variables. I respect the view the marriage is dead and divorce is needed. I'm bewildered by such confidence the divorce will be handed so well.
Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.
I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.
I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.
Mr. Max, The Queen Elizabeth might come out of the builders yard this year (though I thought it was next) then comes at least a year's worth of sea trials to make sure she actually works. The aeroplanes to fly off of her are still at least two years away and then there will have to be a period of working up (regaining all those skills that were thrown away). I read the other day that the in service date is now expected to be 2022 at the earliest.
The decision to scrap HMS Ark Royal before even one of the new carriers was ready was one of the stupidest and most short sighted decisions taken by Osborne.
Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?
Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.
Who?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago Cameron really, really doesn't like Mark Reckless does he? "Happy days, happy days" he says as he recalls @KellyTolhurst byelection #fullfat
Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.
Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.
My money is on a prompt invocation.
If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.
If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.
I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.
ON the other hand he can legitimately claim he is respecting the result of the referendum he called. No going back. There are practical arguments for triggering Article 50 (minimise uncertainty) as well as arguments for not doing so, as you point out. I am genuinely curious which way he will go.
Addendum - He would only lie if he DIDN'T call Article 50.
No - he's said he will call it immediately.
I spend my life negotiating stuff. You don't create a countdown that doesn't benefit you. I don't believe he has any intention of triggering immediately - and certainly not the scenario to which I was responding to (triggering and then resigning).
If he is saying he will call it immediately, but has no intention of doing so, then that's a lie in my book
You should have advised Gordon Brown when he sold off gold. Mr Cameron, to his credit, did confirm immediately that the Government would respect the wishes of the House not to bomb Syria, after labour changed their opinions.
I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?
(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)
Sure - here's one!
"In the event of Brexit, will France's economic future be better as a subordinate player in a glorified Deutschmark zone, or outside of the EU in a special arrangement with Britain?"
I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?
(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)
"Monsieur le Ministre, is there any glimmer of a smidgen of hope that France might eventually get round to implementing a tiny bit of the labour-market reforms which every man and his dog can see are absolutely vital if the country is get out of the doldrums?"
According to the excellent Melissa Kidd at Redburn, the French labour market reforms are rather deeper than most Brits think.
please ask him will he put tarifs on uk goods if we leave?
Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?
Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.
Who?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago Cameron really, really doesn't like Mark Reckless does he? "Happy days, happy days" he says as he recalls @KellyTolhurst byelection #fullfat
I think he was a former MP for Rochester & Strood, he did something that pissed Dave off, I can't recall what though.
I am shown three doors. Behind one is a Conservative MP asking David Cameron a question today at PMQ's, behind another is a Labour MP asking David Cameron a question today at PMQ's and behind the last is an SNP MP asking David Cameron a question at todays PMQ's.
I choose door one.
The host opens door three to reveal an one cheek of an arse.
Daily Politics - Andrew Neil says that John McDonnell says that Labour would not support Osborne's blackmail budget.
Another massive split in the REMAIN camp.
There are threats that if REMAIN wins, then Top Gear will feature wall to wall Chris Evans, will be renamed Gear Sans Frontieres, one of the two weekly stars in a rallycross car will be able to play the joker, there will be simultaneous translation of Evans shouting into French, and Stuart Hall will be brought in for commentary and sundry other things.
Sam Macrory @sammacrory 56s57 seconds ago He's probably very tired. He's possibly quite stressed. And then he has to go and do #pmqs. But David Cameron looked remarkably relaxed...
Goodness gracious, this morning has turned into an quotation session. First at 12:23 we have YBarddCwsc with a line from Young Frankenstein immediately followed by Mr WeeJonnie with one from Gilbert and Sullivan. Well done, chaps.
P.S. Mr. Jonnie, Andy Cooke, gent late of this parish, reckoned that quoting G&S was a sign of distress so you may want to be careful.
Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.
Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.
My money is on a prompt invocation.
If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.
If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.
I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.
Yes. Same kind of lie as the referendum promise. We soon got to the bottom of that little ruse, though, didn't we?
Cons Leavers are falling over themselves to say they want Dave to stay. Dave has only said two things about post-Leave: 1) I will invoke Article 50 very quickly; and 2) there will be an emergency budget.
It's a normal politican lie - not one that's particularly important in the great scheme of things. Of course at the moment he will say things that support his cause.
Should there be a vote to Leave - and I am sticking with my nojam of 48-52 to Remain - then the world will have changed and his immediate priorities will be financial stability and negotiating the best exit in the circumstances.
I'd imagine that the BofE will open the discount window and probably have a short of QE ready to go. But equally an emergency budget will be very unlikely - rapid fiscal tightening (which is what Osborne is suggesting) will be more likely to crash the economy than anything else.
re: Article 50 starting the clock immediately simply doesn't benefit anyone. There needs to be a period of reflection, determining who will lead the discussions, deciding what the strategy will be and what the outcome with the greatest utility is. We need to bear in mind that the result will be very close, and you need to govern for the country as a whole, not for the 51% majority.
Period of reflection? This isn't a yoga class. Our rivals throughout the world will be falling over themselves to move into our space immediately post-Brexit. The government can't afford to chew it over during the balmy summer months. I'll want to see action from day one: serious plans to shield the economy from the worst of the mayhem and trade negotiations started immediately. We'll also need a raft of incentives offered to business so they don't get nervy and relocate. This is going to be stressful.
If you take the certain to vote figures in that STV poll then repercentage them it's a fraction off 70/30 for Remain. Never the less the " Trend is your friend " and it's a big shift to Leave since the last poll.
What were the certain to vote figures previously?
'Amongst those most likely to vote support for Remain grows by 5 percentage points compared to all those asked in the poll'
Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.
I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.
I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.
The purpose of the MOD (and our defence spending generally) is to give employment - just as the Egyptians built pyramids. Weapons that might be actually used could be very dangerous.
The ultimate is of course Trident ( sole reason for existing: Jobs in Barrow-in-Furness). The aircraft carrier programme is almost as good!
Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?
Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.
Who?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago Cameron really, really doesn't like Mark Reckless does he? "Happy days, happy days" he says as he recalls @KellyTolhurst byelection #fullfat
I think he was a former MP for Rochester & Strood, he did something that pissed Dave off, I can't recall what though.
Nope. nothing, doesn't raise a single smidgeon of recall, oh wait - was he the idea for the so money supermarket guy in the ads?
Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?
Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.
Who?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago Cameron really, really doesn't like Mark Reckless does he? "Happy days, happy days" he says as he recalls @KellyTolhurst byelection #fullfat
I think he was a former MP for Rochester & Strood, he did something that pissed Dave off, I can't recall what though.
There's something of the Gordon Browns about David Cameron what with his with his enemies. But whereas Brown had a near sociopathic Mafia Don's urge to see them dealt with, Cameron just likes rubbing it in. He is after all only an amateur.
Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?
Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.
Who?
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago Cameron really, really doesn't like Mark Reckless does he? "Happy days, happy days" he says as he recalls @KellyTolhurst byelection #fullfat
I think he was a former MP for Rochester & Strood, he did something that pissed Dave off, I can't recall what though.
Nope. nothing, doesn't raise a single smidgeon of recall, oh wait - was he the idea for the so money supermarket guy in the ads?
Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.
Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.
My money is on a prompt invocation.
If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.
If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.
I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.
ON the other hand he can legitimately claim he is respecting the result of the referendum he called. No going back. There are practical arguments for triggering Article 50 (minimise uncertainty) as well as arguments for not doing so, as you point out. I am genuinely curious which way he will go.
Addendum - He would only lie if he DIDN'T call Article 50.
No - he's said he will call it immediately.
I spend my life negotiating stuff. You don't create a countdown that doesn't benefit you. I don't believe he has any intention of triggering immediately - and certainly not the scenario to which I was responding to (triggering and then resigning).
If he is saying he will call it immediately, but has no intention of doing so, then that's a lie in my book
My point is that if he intends to call Article 50 immediately and does do so, it wouldn't be a lie. Whether you think that a sensible thing to do is another matter.
FWIW I am two thirds with you, but I can see counter arguments. No-one is going to agree on anything post Brexit (factions within the Conservative party, other UK parties, factions within the EU, and potential EFTA partners). This forces the issue. And this step is demanded by the Brexit result. There is a political need to be seen to respect democracy in a timely manner.
Period of reflection? This isn't a yoga class. Our rivals throughout the world will be falling over themselves to move into our space immediately post-Brexit. The government can't afford to chew it over during the balmy summer months. I'll want to see action from day one: serious plans to shield the economy from the worst of the mayhem and trade negotiations started immediately. We'll also need a raft of incentives offered to business so they don't get nervy and relocate. This is going to be stressful.
Of course a sensible government would have developed a contingency plan and hence would be able to start work immediately.
But since Cameron has specifically denied this, we need to believe him, right?
It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.
If you take the certain to vote figures in that STV poll then repercentage them it's a fraction off 70/30 for Remain. Never the less the " Trend is your friend " and it's a big shift to Leave since the last poll.
What were the certain to vote figures previously?
'Amongst those most likely to vote support for Remain grows by 5 percentage points compared to all those asked in the poll'
That's the difference between certain and all in this poll. I meant comparing just the certain to vote figures between this and their last Scottish poll.
It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.
Or Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were ultimately responsible for securing The UK's place at the heart of the EU.
The Don't Knows rising by 10 does seem a bit peculiar.
I think there are quite a few genuinely conflicted Indy folk: vote Remain to stay in a union towards which you feel at best mildly positive, or Leave to stick it to Cameron, Osborne, Darling and the massed ranks of the British establishment.
Not so much. Swingette to DK – =most will break back Remain.
Don't think so - many people kept quiet in the Sindyref due to Nationalist 'exuberance'. They know this time that Scotland favours 'Remain' so are keeping mum.
My point is that if he intends to call Article 50 immediately and does do so, it wouldn't be a lie. Whether you think that a sensible thing to do is another matter.
FWIW I am two thirds with you, but I can see counter arguments. No-one is going to agree on anything post Brexit (factions within the Conservative party, other UK parties, factions within the EU, and potential EFTA partners). This forces the issue. And this step is demanded by the Brexit result. There is a political need to be seen to respect democracy in a timely manner.
Of course if he acts on his statement then he isn't lying.
That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)
On timing, they clearly need to have a worked out strategy, and I'm sure that there are developed options. But you need to get a new PM in place quickly - you may well get a holding action agreed by all the candidates implemented immediately, but I don't think the public cares about the precise mechanics provided that their decision is implemented in a respectable timeframe
Mike has just posted the latest polls by date of fieldwork. Looking at them, the ComRes one is actually pretty old. the three latest are all showing decent leave leads. It seems fair to conclude, I think, that the Big Mo is absolutely and completely with Leave.
Sam Macrory @sammacrory 56s57 seconds ago He's probably very tired. He's possibly quite stressed. And then he has to go and do #pmqs. But David Cameron looked remarkably relaxed...
That was my feeling - a very relaxed and assured performance - with lots of supportive questions and nodding from his own side.
It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.
Or Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were ultimately responsible for securing The UK's place at the heart of the EU.
As if we would have ever had a vote without their actions.
Mike has just posted the latest polls by date of fieldwork. Looking at them, the ComRes one is actually pretty old. the three latest are all showing decent leave leads. It seems fair to conclude, I think, that the Big Mo is absolutely and completely with Leave.
The ComRes poll fieldwork only ended on Monday night, a bit harsh to say it is old.
It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.
Or Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were ultimately responsible for securing The UK's place at the heart of the EU.
As if we would have ever had a vote without their actions.
The referendum was announced long before they ratted to UKIP.
Comments
Why does an Economy and Digital Business (that's about right) Minister get to define immigration and customs policy in France?
Or was he just expressing a personal opinion?
It seems rather counter-intuitive.
No need for the EU referendum Act 2011, any UK government seeking to oppose an EU superstate thereafter would be undermining the democratic will of the people of Britain?
Of course the populace might regard this as whinging after a defeat and then vote heavily for Remain as a response. Close losers don't seem to win re-runs IIRC. (Isn't there talk of a legal challenge in Austria?)
Should there be a vote to Leave - and I am sticking with my nojam of 48-52 to Remain - then the world will have changed and his immediate priorities will be financial stability and negotiating the best exit in the circumstances.
I'd imagine that the BofE will open the discount window and probably have a short of QE ready to go. But equally an emergency budget will be very unlikely - rapid fiscal tightening (which is what Osborne is suggesting) will be more likely to crash the economy than anything else.
re: Article 50 starting the clock immediately simply doesn't benefit anyone. There needs to be a period of reflection, determining who will lead the discussions, deciding what the strategy will be and what the outcome with the greatest utility is. We need to bear in mind that the result will be very close, and you need to govern for the country as a whole, not for the 51% majority.
Requesting the immigration rate to be compatible with what can be absorbed in terms of houses, schools, public services is an incredibly minor request.
That is all many LEAVERs want.
This is hardly an unreasonable request (it is little more than a matter of common sense or reasonable planning for the future). The only people I can see who benefit from completely unlimited immigration are the Stuart (“low wages”) Roses of this world.
Yet, it has provoked a nuclear reaction from Osborne & Cameron with this half-crazy, scorched earth budget.
I hope this budget will be turning point, but not in the way Osborne (or his apologists) believe.
I guess I always thought Dave and George might be bullies. But, now the bullying streak at the heart of the Tory party has become exposed to full public view.
It is an ugly thing.
The task of filling out the blank, I'd rather leave to you.
Which is better wine: Bordeaux or Barolo?
Gaby Hinsliff Retweeted Michael Deacon
Experts, eh?Gaby Hinsliff added,
Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon
I ask Nigel Farage why he's taken up cigarettes again. Farage: "I think the doctors have got it wrong on smoking"
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Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.
In the London mayoral election, the super-duper electronic vote-counting machines, or the software they were programmed with (nice contracts if you can get them), malfunctioned (thousands of votes went to the wrong candidate), causing the result to be delayed for several hours. But Sadiq Khan was recognised to be ahead by a large enough margin for nobody to get especially upset,and he even went and claimed City Hall before the result was announced.
But next Thursday.....................
I spend my life negotiating stuff. You don't create a countdown that doesn't benefit you. I don't believe he has any intention of triggering immediately - and certainly not the scenario to which I was responding to (triggering and then resigning).
If he is saying he will call it immediately, but has no intention of doing so, then that's a lie in my book
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago
Cameron really, really doesn't like Mark Reckless does he? "Happy days, happy days" he says as he recalls @KellyTolhurst byelection #fullfat
"In the event of Brexit, will France's economic future be better as a subordinate player in a glorified Deutschmark zone, or outside of the EU in a special arrangement with Britain?"
I choose door one.
The host opens door three to reveal an one cheek of an arse.
Do I switch?
He's probably very tired. He's possibly quite stressed. And then he has to go and do #pmqs. But David Cameron looked remarkably relaxed...
P.S. Mr. Jonnie, Andy Cooke, gent late of this parish, reckoned that quoting G&S was a sign of distress so you may want to be careful.
My team met this mornings "budget" news with a mixture of anger and derision.
They might not be typical but it isn't going to change their minds and the anger level at remain campaign has gone up another notch.
No wonder people don't trust politicians anymore.
Not so much. Swingette to DK – =most will break back Remain.
The Don't Knows rising by 10 does seem a bit peculiar.
http://tinyurl.com/jlchlnz
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lets-face-it-the-eu-rescued-us-from-failure-2kqm9kxx0
The ultimate is of course Trident ( sole reason for existing: Jobs in Barrow-in-Furness). The aircraft carrier programme is almost as good!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
No wonder he gets on so well with Nigel.
FWIW I am two thirds with you, but I can see counter arguments. No-one is going to agree on anything post Brexit (factions within the Conservative party, other UK parties, factions within the EU, and potential EFTA partners). This forces the issue. And this step is demanded by the Brexit result. There is a political need to be seen to respect democracy in a timely manner.
You exported him to Wales.
Of course a sensible government would have developed a contingency plan and hence would be able to start work immediately.
But since Cameron has specifically denied this, we need to believe him, right?
It could be argued that we got the better deal.
THE EU PROJECTDAVE'S CAREER!That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)
On timing, they clearly need to have a worked out strategy, and I'm sure that there are developed options. But you need to get a new PM in place quickly - you may well get a holding action agreed by all the candidates implemented immediately, but I don't think the public cares about the precise mechanics provided that their decision is implemented in a respectable timeframe
I was thinking of Hamilton
REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22
https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/
Anyway, I must be off.
I was expecting you to say something on the lines of:
"Sheeesh, Sunil! All Kippers look the same to you, don't they?"
£2.5bn from NHS, £1.2bn from defence and £1.15bn from education are sorts of cuts any Chancellor would have to consider
No foreign aid reduction in there, then?