Thanks Roger, another good article to go with Ms Cyclefree's yesterday.
Can anyone with the Times post a summary of their front page story on Turkey - if it's half as bad as the headline then Remain are really in trouble.
I think we predicted on here several months ago pretty much to the day, when the PM would write his "Vote Remain or your pension gets it" blackmail letter. Sad to see the man and his office so diminished by this campaign, he must know in his heart by now that he's only got a fortnight left in the job.
The story is basically the FO thinks a number of special visas will have to be handed out to selected groups like Turkish civil servants and teachers etc to prevent Erdogan opening the floodgates to Europe for migrants, the headline is more dramatic than the story
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
But that kind of misses the point Philip is making. Whatever the makeup of PB the fact is that the polls have shifted fairly dramatically in the Leave direction in the last month but the betting markets have hardly moved.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
The provinicial elderly are overwhelmingly Leave so that is hardly surprising, if you had approached a younger voter or a middle aged graduate in a big city you would likely have found a more positive view of Remain
From canvassing and extrapolating (caveats apply ofc!),a few of my Labour sources say it's about 55/45 for Remain in London.
On the one hand, I find it scarcely believable when I think of the 'Village People' that populate Stoke Newington, Islington, Dulwich, Walthamstow etc.
On the other hand I recall conversations I have had where one group of migrated people accuse another group of under-cutting them, shutting them out of certain professions, street drinking and so on.
55-45 in London would be a Leave landslide nationally.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
Well just on this thread we had three reports from Remain campaigners, two negative (murali_s in London and rottenborough) and one middling (Nick Palmer).
Obviously those of us out campaigning foe Leave may have rose tinted glasses but even in North London we're finding more Leave supporters than we expected and there is a huge turnout of activists, some people have nothing to do at times.
From canvassing and extrapolating (caveats apply ofc!),a few of my Labour sources say it's about 55/45 for Remain in London.
On the one hand, I find it scarcely believable when I think of the 'Village People' that populate Stoke Newington, Islington, Dulwich, Walthamstow etc.
On the other hand I recall conversations I have had where one group of migrants accuse another group of under-cutting them, shutting them out of certain professions, street drinking and so on.
55-45 in London would be a Leave landslide nationally.
I would have expected something like 70-30.
It is in between, 63% to 37% Remain in London with yougov today, not as big as 70-30 but certainly more than 55% to 45%
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
But that kind of misses the point Philip is making. Whatever the makeup of PB the fact is that the polls have shifted fairly dramatically in the Leave direction in the last month but the betting markets have hardly moved.
It's an interesting thing. If I ran a business that would get caned by the UK leaving the EU then I'd be busy backing Leave.
The fact that the price is a bit long on leave versus the apparent evidence tells you a couple of things. Firstly that noone really fears Leave, and secondly that those businesses that will be hammered by EUexit are run by people of limited intelligence.
BBCSundayPoliticScot Prof Curtice: people think immigration lower if we leave, but not necessarily convinced economy will be better if we remain (2/2) #bbcsp
And this shows why, despite the sneering from the commentariat, it was a masterstroke from Leave to rule out the "Norway option". The prospect of controlling immigration is by far the main thing that's driving Leave up the polls; if they'd just continued with the abstract waffling about "sovereignty" in general, they would've flatlined.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
Labour voters just found out that Labour doesn't care about the working classes, just the EU and identity politics, just as the Tory voters have just found out that their party doesn't care about the country, or indeed anyone outside the City.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
You could get 9/2ish on Leave less than three weeks ago, it's now 2/1ish across the board. That's quite a bit of movement.
From canvassing and extrapolating (caveats apply ofc!),a few of my Labour sources say it's about 55/45 for Remain in London.
On the one hand, I find it scarcely believable when I think of the 'Village People' that populate Stoke Newington, Islington, Dulwich, Walthamstow etc.
On the other hand I recall conversations I have had where one group of migrants accuse another group of under-cutting them, shutting them out of certain professions, street drinking and so on.
55-45 in London would be a Leave landslide nationally.
I would have expected something like 70-30.
It is in between, 63% to 37% Remain in London with yougov today, not as big as 70-30 but certainly more than 55% to 45%
Based on a response rate of something less than 1% for a typical phone poll if I recall, it's hard to get excited about poll data these days
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
But that kind of misses the point Philip is making. Whatever the makeup of PB the fact is that the polls have shifted fairly dramatically in the Leave direction in the last month but the betting markets have hardly moved.
The polls have not shifted dramatically towards Leave in the last month . Yesterdays Yougov Leave lead 1% Yougov 12th May 2% Leave lead . The polls are basically unchanged some up some down
Thanks Roger, another good article to go with Ms Cyclefree's yesterday.
Can anyone with the Times post a summary of their front page story on Turkey - if it's half as bad as the headline then Remain are really in trouble.
I think we predicted on here several months ago pretty much to the day, when the PM would write his "Vote Remain or your pension gets it" blackmail letter. Sad to see the man and his office so diminished by this campaign, he must know in his heart by now that he's only got a fortnight left in the job.
The story is basically the FO thinks a number of special visas will have to be handed out to selected groups like Turkish civil servants and teachers etc to prevent Erdogan opening the floodgates to Europe for migrants, the headline is more dramatic than the story
Arguably, your last point is true. But the article also states that "EU officials are attempting to keep any visa deal with Turkey under wraps until after the referendum on June 23."
Funny how many of the EU's plans are being kept quiet until after the referendum. It's almost as if they think that the people of the UK would probably vote to Leave, if they really knew what was in the pipeline.
From canvassing and extrapolating (caveats apply ofc!),a few of my Labour sources say it's about 55/45 for Remain in London.
On the one hand, I find it scarcely believable when I think of the 'Village People' that populate Stoke Newington, Islington, Dulwich, Walthamstow etc.
On the other hand I recall conversations I have had where one group of migrants accuse another group of under-cutting them, shutting them out of certain professions, street drinking and so on.
55-45 in London would be a Leave landslide nationally.
I would have expected something like 70-30.
It is in between, 63% to 37% Remain in London with yougov today, not as big as 70-30 but certainly more than 55% to 45%
Based on a response rate of something less than 1% for a typical phone poll if I recall, it's hard to get excited about poll data these days
Phone polls would probably have Remain even further ahead in London
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I'm a remain campaigner and as Teesside isn't London I'm well out of the rise tinted everything is awesome approach to the EU. However, I predicted a Leave win at the beginning of the year and I still expect that as a result. The number one issue seems to be migration wherever you are in the country and peoples gut is almost universally hostile to it.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
But that kind of misses the point Philip is making. Whatever the makeup of PB the fact is that the polls have shifted fairly dramatically in the Leave direction in the last month but the betting markets have hardly moved.
We've had three exciting polls: the Orb on-line one, the ICM telephone one, and the ICM on-line one.
But that's it.
YouGov is not showing any sign of anything changing and nor is Opinium. Indeed, YouGov on 1-3 June had a much bigger Leave lead than either of the following two polls.
We do stand a chance, a good chance. I am cautiously optimistic. But I think we all suffer a little from cognitive dissonance, and choose to give excess weight to those polls which confirm our existing views.
Does anyone know when we're going to next get a Survation or ICM phone poll?
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out campaigning for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
I went to a Labour organised (open to the public) remain meeting, the only one i think we have had in the constituency, despite having two exceptionally well known guest speakers, the room couldnt have had more than thirty to forty people in it. Only one single person in the room put a contrary position, and pinned down one of the speakers for using exactly the same argument when he was an advisor to Tony Blair as to why we should join the Euro.
This person was a labour member. He was jeered, the former MP (who is a quite an intimidating gent) shouted at him that he was ridiculous and listed some of the European companies in the town that are big employers, who according to him would almost certainly leave the UK if we left.
The person on the panel just lost it entirely and started shouting at him also. Throughout this time the person putting the contrary position was utterly polite, never raised his voice and only spoke after he had put his hand up and was called.
The woman chairing the meeting (former PPC) started sniggering and rolling her eyes, tutting when he wanted to come back to re-challenge points.
It made me think of the 'five million conversations' on the doorsteps that Labour had the elections, if they resembled that, it would have sounded like 'five million lectures' on the doorstep.
Speaker after speaker talked about the wonders of immigration, how it was the murdoch press and the biased bbc that was to blame for ignorant voters. Several people said theyve yet to hear one single convincing reason to leave the EU.
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave
Corbyn's single campaign appearance on TV is 20th June, on Sky - with youth voters. That says it all.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out campaigning for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
Well that's were you should be, it's the naivity of youth versus the wisdom of age and you appear to be having the opposite effect to what you are seeking :-)
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave
Corbyn's single campaign appearance on TV is 20th June, on Sky - with youth voters. That says it all.
Indeed, he was in Scotland yesterday too, he will generally only campaign with groups he knows are overwhelmingly for Remain anyway
Thanks Roger, another good article to go with Ms Cyclefree's yesterday.
Can anyone with the Times post a summary of their front page story on Turkey - if it's half as bad as the headline then Remain are really in trouble.
I think we predicted on here several months ago pretty much to the day, when the PM would write his "Vote Remain or your pension gets it" blackmail letter. Sad to see the man and his office so diminished by this campaign, he must know in his heart by now that he's only got a fortnight left in the job.
The story is basically the FO thinks a number of special visas will have to be handed out to selected groups like Turkish civil servants and teachers etc to prevent Erdogan opening the floodgates to Europe for migrants, the headline is more dramatic than the story
Arguably, your last point is true. But the article also states that "EU officials are attempting to keep any visa deal with Turkey under wraps until after the referendum on June 23."
Funny how many of the EU's plans are being kept quiet until after the referendum. It's almost as if they think that the people of the UK would probably vote to Leave, if they really knew what was in the pipeline.
It is worth remembering that there is no such thing as "EU visa" there is only a Schengen visa. So, the EU cannot give a country's citizens visa-free access to the Common Travel Area.
Thanks Roger, another good article to go with Ms Cyclefree's yesterday.
Can anyone with the Times post a summary of their front page story on Turkey - if it's half as bad as the headline then Remain are really in trouble.
I think we predicted on here several months ago pretty much to the day, when the PM would write his "Vote Remain or your pension gets it" blackmail letter. Sad to see the man and his office so diminished by this campaign, he must know in his heart by now that he's only got a fortnight left in the job.
The story is basically the FO thinks a number of special visas will have to be handed out to selected groups like Turkish civil servants and teachers etc to prevent Erdogan opening the floodgates to Europe for migrants, the headline is more dramatic than the story
Arguably, your last point is true. But the article also states that "EU officials are attempting to keep any visa deal with Turkey under wraps until after the referendum on June 23."
Funny how many of the EU's plans are being kept quiet until after the referendum. It's almost as if they think that the people of the UK would probably vote to Leave, if they really knew what was in the pipeline.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
Labour voters just found out that Labour doesn't care about the working classes, just the EU and identity politics, just as the Tory voters have just found out that their party doesn't care about the country, or indeed anyone outside the City.
In a colossal missing-the-point, I've seen several Remain MPs saying they'd spend more money on areas with high migration to mitigate the problem.
Err, no. Eagles did it on the ITV debate, Gordon did it this morning on Sky too. These communities feel totally sidelined and overrun - money doesn't solve 20 different classroom languages, your culture disappearing et al.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
It's the currency markets not the betting markets where all the action is.Capital flight is being whispered.The poker game of the century is about to take place.Soros et al are counting their chips.Carney is doing the same but will he be able to print enough money-QE?-to put a stop to the bleeding of a full-blown run on the pound. Good move by Labour to refer to Leave as Tory Brexit, run by an alternative hard-right Johnson/Farage/Patel/Gove government,supported by Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I'm a remain campaigner and as Teesside isn't London I'm well out of the rise tinted everything is awesome approach to the EU. However, I predicted a Leave win at the beginning of the year and I still expect that as a result. The number one issue seems to be migration wherever you are in the country and peoples gut is almost universally hostile to it.
From canvassing and extrapolating (caveats apply ofc!),a few of my Labour sources say it's about 55/45 for Remain in London.
On the one hand, I find it scarcely believable when I think of the 'Village People' that populate Stoke Newington, Islington, Dulwich, Walthamstow etc.
On the other hand I recall conversations I have had where one group of migrants accuse another group of under-cutting them, shutting them out of certain professions, street drinking and so on.
55-45 in London would be a Leave landslide nationally.
I would have expected something like 70-30.
It is in between, 63% to 37% Remain in London with yougov today, not as big as 70-30 but certainly more than 55% to 45%
Based on a response rate of something less than 1% for a typical phone poll if I recall, it's hard to get excited about poll data these days
Phone polls would probably have Remain even further ahead in London
Yes.
What I mean is we have a choice for our source of information between online panels stuffed full of activists, or telephone polls with the sort of response rates that make it almost pointless.
You wanted the betting market explained. Please note the following
* Some people put money on as an avocation of their cause: "I want X to win so I will put money on X". They regard betting for the other side as treason. People do not bet for insurance purposes. * The Deutsche Banker. Casino_Royale related an anecdote about a Deutsche Bank friend of his who who, when challenged on a LEAVE vote, grew irate and increased his REMAIN bet by £20K. Some people bet to demonstrate status * Imperfect information. A perfect market implies perfect knowledge: all must have the same information instantaneously and that info must be accurate. We do not have that. The polls are in disarray, predictions are based on the polls, bets scale to polls and predictions. When LEAVE win next week, some people will be legitimately surprised.
Thanks Roger, another good article to go with Ms Cyclefree's yesterday.
Can anyone with the Times post a summary of their front page story on Turkey - if it's half as bad as the headline then Remain are really in trouble.
I think we predicted on here several months ago pretty much to the day, when the PM would write his "Vote Remain or your pension gets it" blackmail letter. Sad to see the man and his office so diminished by this campaign, he must know in his heart by now that he's only got a fortnight left in the job.
The story is basically the FO thinks a number of special visas will have to be handed out to selected groups like Turkish civil servants and teachers etc to prevent Erdogan opening the floodgates to Europe for migrants, the headline is more dramatic than the story
Arguably, your last point is true. But the article also states that "EU officials are attempting to keep any visa deal with Turkey under wraps until after the referendum on June 23."
Funny how many of the EU's plans are being kept quiet until after the referendum. It's almost as if they think that the people of the UK would probably vote to Leave, if they really knew what was in the pipeline.
It is worth remembering that there is no such thing as "EU visa" there is only a Schengen visa. So, the EU cannot give a country's citizens visa-free access to the Common Travel Area.
The article was about the UK giving visa-free access to Turkish holders of "special passports" holders: "In a telegram to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office on May 5, Douglas wrote: “Should [EU] visa liberalisation be granted, we will need to develop our own lines on the UK’s stance to visa-free travel for Turks.
“One option would be to assess again the possibility of visa travel for Turkish special passport holders which would be a risk, but a significant and symbolic gesture to Turkey.”
And the UK is, apparently, "is encouraging other EU countries to grant Turkey visa-free travel to Schengen." So I think it is reasonable to talk about EU plans in this context.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I would have said the two sides were fairly balanced at the beginning of the campaign. What we have seen is the Remainers gradually drifting off or posting less. They could be on holidays or due to come back, but they seem to have their hearts less in it than the leavers.
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
Yeah some of us are out LYING THROUGH OUR TEETH for Remain whilst leaving the noisy keyboard Leave warriors to it.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
You said exactly the same last night and I will give exactly the same response, this is New Labour people, Corbyn and those around him will do nothing more than shrug if it is Leave
Danny's point is valid though.
Perhaps 40% of Labour voters will vote Leave. The number of Labour MPs taking that view is about 5%. That's highly unrepresentative.
Whatever the Tories internal ructions, it's clear that the MPs more broadly resemble the vote in the Leave/Remain divide.
According to Ashcroft's post Sindy analysis nearly 40% of Scot Lab voters voted Leave. At the next GE their share of the vote was down by broadly the same amount.
From canvassing and extrapolating (caveats apply ofc!),a few of my Labour sources say it's about 55/45 for Remain in London.
On the one hand, I find it scarcely believable when I think of the 'Village People' that populate Stoke Newington, Islington, Dulwich, Walthamstow etc.
On the other hand I recall conversations I have had where one group of migrants accuse another group of under-cutting them, shutting them out of certain professions, street drinking and so on.
55-45 in London would be a Leave landslide nationally.
I would have expected something like 70-30.
It is in between, 63% to 37% Remain in London with yougov today, not as big as 70-30 but certainly more than 55% to 45%
Based on a response rate of something less than 1% for a typical phone poll if I recall, it's hard to get excited about poll data these days
Phone polls would probably have Remain even further ahead in London
Yes.
What I mean is we have a choice for our source of information between online panels stuffed full of activists, or telephone polls with the sort of response rates that make it almost pointless.
Split the difference and you probably get the right result
Split the difference and you probably get the right result
NOOOOOOO!
TheScreamingEagles, I asked to write an article about some statistical phenomena. They're not profound, but they are noticable. All I need is anonymity.
Can anyone explain the betting market on this to me?
From all evidence I can see Leave are doing better and Remain worse than expected a month ago. Remain probably still favourites but Leave running them very close.
Yet the betting market has barely budged at all. Why? Do those betting not believe the tightening polls and reports of Labour Leavers? Or did those betting a month ago always expect that so it was already priced in?
The stubborn refusal of Betfair et al to budge despite millions changing hands seems to me the biggest mystery of this campaign.
I think part of the problem is there are very fewer Remainers on pb.com. Simply, the anecdotes we hear are almost entirely from people out campaigning for Leave. We hear from Sean and Max and Casino and Yossarians child.
But we don't hear from the Remain campaigners. And, living in north west London I get a skewed view, I see ten times as many Remain campaigners as Leave ones. I've seen a single shunned lady in St Johns Wood, and a UKIP 'battle bus' on the Strand. And that's it from Leave.
That shouldn't be surprising: Hampstead and environs are going to be as pro-Remain as they come. But I suspect we're only seeing one side of the campaign on this site.
I'm a remain campaigner and as Teesside isn't London I'm well out of the rise tinted everything is awesome approach to the EU. However, I predicted a Leave win at the beginning of the year and I still expect that as a result. The number one issue seems to be migration wherever you are in the country and peoples gut is almost universally hostile to it.
It is immigration v the economy
For a lot of voters immigration IS the economy. When the economy doesn't work for you as it is there is nothing that remain can say to threaten you into their camp - forget project fear, it's already reality.
And this is why the "big surprise" is that leave is winning. The political establishment believe the paper economy - the one where we are in recovery and there are more jobs and things are improving. This referendum allows an equal vote to people who live in the real economy - if they have a job it's low pay low security poor conditions. Or they can't get a job as it doesn't pay the bills or there's no childcare or transport or there are 100 other people applying for it as well.
In a general election their vote is worthless - FPTP makes most votes worthless, and even if they vote for a candidate whose party ends up in government little changes. In this referendum their vote actually counts. And the people who trap them in this mess and lie about it all want them to vote remain. So of course they're voting to leave. And they aren't listening to "facts" from either side thear mind has been made up by the facts they face every day.
Remember folks. Democracy is Revolution. We're about to see it in action.
Shooting America being reported by BBC as committed by somebody with leanings towards radical Islam. I wonder how that will effect POTUS...I,am sure trump won't have anything to say on the matter.
Looking at the "par" local authority spreadsheet (a fabulous piece of work) for a clear Leave win, I'd expect to see Leave carry places like Southampton, Nottingham, Leicester, North Tyneside, Bridgend, and Sheffield.
I will be looking very carefully to see if Leave are campaigning hard here in the final few days.
So far, I'm not seeing it.
Nottingham? Don't think so. Nottinghamshire outside the conurbation, quite possibly.
I think rottenborough was campaigning for Remain in the Nottingham suburbs yesterday and posted a bleakish assessment.
Correct. No hard door-by-door canvass data, but based on severals hours at a street stall. Leaver after Leaver after Leaver. I gave up approaching any male over around 55 as they were universally Leave and usually rude with it. Many older people had already postal voted and said it was 'Out'.
There's hope for Remain in that it could be there are shy Remainers who just kept their heads down and slipped past. Or that young people were still abed. Who knows.
Personally, I am pretty sure Leave are winning and indeed am beginning to worry it could be a minor landslide.
Yep...West Sussex coast is exactly the same. Hard pushed to find anyone willing to admit being in favour of Remain. Not really surprising as there's a lot of Eastern European immigration and a lot of pensioners though.
Same on Teesside. Except we have been doorknocking and that wasn't pretty either. And we know it's the same picture across the country as Labour ordered MPs home to campaign - the VID data being bad enough to make them want everyone on the doors.
I'm still utterly baffled by how the Labour "high command" apparently considers staying in the EU to be their main raison d'etre. Reports of Labour staff "in tears" at the prospect of Brexit.....where were the tears when welfare cuts were being voted through??
Labour voters just found out that Labour doesn't care about the working classes, just the EU and identity politics, just as the Tory voters have just found out that their party doesn't care about the country, or indeed anyone outside the City.
In a colossal missing-the-point, I've seen several Remain MPs saying they'd spend more money on areas with high migration to mitigate the problem.
Err, no. Eagles did it on the ITV debate, Gordon did it this morning on Sky too. These communities feel totally sidelined and overrun - money doesn't solve 20 different classroom languages, your culture disappearing et al.
Where outside the largest cities do you get classrooms with 20 different languages? And even if you do how many of those children are from EU nations?
Split the difference and you probably get the right result
NOOOOOOO!
TheScreamingEagles, I asked to write an article about some statistical phenomena. They're not profound, but they are noticable. All I need is anonymity.
Indeed, between the truth and a lie, reality is not somewhere in between.
Back in the 90s, when commenting on the situation in Iraq, I had to continually remind the BBC of this fact when they insisted on giving the Iraqi version equal weight.
Comments
Of course lots of noisy leavers on PB doesnt guarantee anything either as we saw on Indyref.
The campaign has not developed as many (including myself) expected. I thought Remain would be regularly posting 15 points or so leads by now.
I still think shy Remainders will win it for them... but a Leave is not inconceivable.
I may actually stay up through the night and see how it goes. Could be momentous, either way.
On the other hand I recall conversations I have had where one group of migrated people accuse another group of under-cutting them, shutting them out of certain professions, street drinking and so on.
55-45 in London would be a Leave landslide nationally.
I would have expected something like 70-30.
Obviously those of us out campaigning foe Leave may have rose tinted glasses but even in North London we're finding more Leave supporters than we expected and there is a huge turnout of activists, some people have nothing to do at times.
The fact that the price is a bit long on leave versus the apparent evidence tells you a couple of things. Firstly that noone really fears Leave, and secondly that those businesses that will be hammered by EUexit are run by people of limited intelligence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011
Shadsy's book resembles the AV result with an SNP weighting. On that basis I think Edinburgh will top that list, followed by Hackney.
"EU officials are attempting to keep any visa deal with Turkey under wraps until after the referendum on June 23."
Funny how many of the EU's plans are being kept quiet until after the referendum. It's almost as if they think that the people of the UK would probably vote to Leave, if they really knew what was in the pipeline.
But that's it.
YouGov is not showing any sign of anything changing and nor is Opinium. Indeed, YouGov on 1-3 June had a much bigger Leave lead than either of the following two polls.
We do stand a chance, a good chance. I am cautiously optimistic. But I think we all suffer a little from cognitive dissonance, and choose to give excess weight to those polls which confirm our existing views.
Does anyone know when we're going to next get a Survation or ICM phone poll?
I went to a Labour organised (open to the public) remain meeting, the only one i think we have had in the constituency, despite having two exceptionally well known guest speakers, the room couldnt have had more than thirty to forty people in it. Only one single person in the room put a contrary position, and pinned down one of the speakers for using exactly the same argument when he was an advisor to Tony Blair as to why we should join the Euro.
This person was a labour member. He was jeered, the former MP (who is a quite an intimidating gent) shouted at him that he was ridiculous and listed some of the European companies in the town that are big employers, who according to him would almost certainly leave the UK if we left.
The person on the panel just lost it entirely and started shouting at him also. Throughout this time the person putting the contrary position was utterly polite, never raised his voice and only spoke after he had put his hand up and was called.
The woman chairing the meeting (former PPC) started sniggering and rolling her eyes, tutting when he wanted to come back to re-challenge points.
It made me think of the 'five million conversations' on the doorsteps that Labour had the elections, if they resembled that, it would have sounded like 'five million lectures' on the doorstep.
Speaker after speaker talked about the wonders of immigration, how it was the murdoch press and the biased bbc that was to blame for ignorant voters. Several people said theyve yet to hear one single convincing reason to leave the EU.
Im sensing we could end up with some tectonic re- alignment after this referendum, and im not sure which party is going to come off worse because of it.
New Thread New Thread
Err, no. Eagles did it on the ITV debate, Gordon did it this morning on Sky too. These communities feel totally sidelined and overrun - money doesn't solve 20 different classroom languages, your culture disappearing et al.
Good move by Labour to refer to Leave as Tory Brexit, run by an alternative hard-right Johnson/Farage/Patel/Gove government,supported by Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump.
What I mean is we have a choice for our source of information between online panels stuffed full of activists, or telephone polls with the sort of response rates that make it almost pointless.
You wanted the betting market explained. Please note the following
* Some people put money on as an avocation of their cause: "I want X to win so I will put money on X". They regard betting for the other side as treason. People do not bet for insurance purposes.
* The Deutsche Banker. Casino_Royale related an anecdote about a Deutsche Bank friend of his who who, when challenged on a LEAVE vote, grew irate and increased his REMAIN bet by £20K. Some people bet to demonstrate status
* Imperfect information. A perfect market implies perfect knowledge: all must have the same information instantaneously and that info must be accurate. We do not have that. The polls are in disarray, predictions are based on the polls, bets scale to polls and predictions. When LEAVE win next week, some people will be legitimately surprised.
“One option would be to assess again the possibility of visa travel for Turkish special passport holders which would be a risk, but a significant and symbolic gesture to Turkey.”
And the UK is, apparently, "is encouraging other EU countries to grant Turkey visa-free travel to Schengen." So I think it is reasonable to talk about EU plans in this context.
Perhaps 40% of Labour voters will vote Leave. The number of Labour MPs taking that view is about 5%. That's highly unrepresentative.
Whatever the Tories internal ructions, it's clear that the MPs more broadly resemble the vote in the Leave/Remain divide.
According to Ashcroft's post Sindy analysis nearly 40% of Scot Lab voters voted Leave. At the next GE their share of the vote was down by broadly the same amount.
TheScreamingEagles, I asked to write an article about some statistical phenomena. They're not profound, but they are noticable. All I need is anonymity.
And this is why the "big surprise" is that leave is winning. The political establishment believe the paper economy - the one where we are in recovery and there are more jobs and things are improving. This referendum allows an equal vote to people who live in the real economy - if they have a job it's low pay low security poor conditions. Or they can't get a job as it doesn't pay the bills or there's no childcare or transport or there are 100 other people applying for it as well.
In a general election their vote is worthless - FPTP makes most votes worthless, and even if they vote for a candidate whose party ends up in government little changes. In this referendum their vote actually counts. And the people who trap them in this mess and lie about it all want them to vote remain. So of course they're voting to leave. And they aren't listening to "facts" from either side thear mind has been made up by the facts they face every day.
Remember folks. Democracy is Revolution. We're about to see it in action.
Back in the 90s, when commenting on the situation in Iraq, I had to continually remind the BBC of this fact when they insisted on giving the Iraqi version equal weight.