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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger reviews the latest EU referendum broadcasts
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger reviews the latest EU referendum broadcasts
Over the last few weeks research companies running focus groups will have been dissecting psychoanalysing and picking to death the innermost thoughts of voters.
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'The Titanic was built by professionals, The Ark was built by amateurs'
But thank you for another excellent piece Roger
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/11/roger-reviews-the-latest-eu-referendum-broadcasts/
OFFS! Still the above post could have been worse.
So Cameron and Osborne are threatening to punish portions of the electorate for not voting the right way. Excuse me, isn't that the wrong way round?
Bollocks is my immediate reaction. You may think you're the master now, but if you think you can bully the little people into falling in line, you can f*ck right off. I'll vote Labour at the next election even if the certified loon is still in place. Are the Conservatives trying to lose the next election?
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
Jeez! Does Dan actually believe this sh1t?!?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3637151/DAN-HODGES-Incendiary-Incisive-corridors-power.html
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Another interesting article, Mr. Roger. Will you be writing more of these, looking at US attack ads once the presidential race (rather than nominee race) gets into full swing?
F1: start time is 7pm. I'll see about writing a pre-race piece before lunch.
Edited extra bit: and if you missed the interview I did with the founder of Woodbridge Press, and you're a would-be (or actual) publisher/writer, or just interested in the nuts and bolts, do give it a look:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/interview-with-nathan-hystad.html
Personally I thought the Remain ad was dull (I was tempted to stop watching halfway through) but fairly convincing. I was confused by the habit of giving the speakers in voice-over before showing their lips moving - is this standard, and why? The mix of different types of expert was good.
The Leave ad was much more arresting but also less convincing. You don't have to be especially well-informed to know that some of its claims are factually incorrect, and the Dad's Army-like arrows are memorable but overused.
Interestingly they go for Cameron's jugular in the first seconds, presumably based on the polling showing his credibility is a busted flush. But I wonder if it's quite that simple - he's still the PM, and has an authority that the anonymous speakers on the Leave film don't.
Ads are only as good as the product they sell. Leave has the best product: big cuts in immigration. Whether that actually materialises is besides the point - a lot of voters want to buy. They may well end up feeling fleeced, but that is neither here nor there.
Where's One Nation gone? It's now The Elites vs The People. It's split the country in a way I never expected - but then again, I never thought our own PM and Chancellor would behave like this. Threatening state pensions is the pits, though possibly slightly less tasteless than knee-capping in NI.
Has no one told Cameron that this might be the case?
There's a risk, for Remain, people see a load of rich people who are doing incredibly well out of the status quo, campaigning for things to stay as they are because it helps them out.
That said, I do think it's still a clear net benefit for Remain to say "Look at all these experts we have".
Miss Plato, what?! I may not be overflowing with gold [which didn't do Crassus much good, in any event] but surely I'm classed as elite? Who else has mastered the mystic art of differential front end grip?
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
However, it also means that when Labour get their act together and elect someone who could pass for sane in a dim light, the ultimate defeat for the Conservatives will be much more devastating and possibly even terminal.
Looks to me like Dacre (who is editor in chief of DMG media) has pulled rank and told Geordie Grieg to stop annoying the readers. Has there been a noticeable drop in circulation I wonder?
Looks like it won't just be politicians that have their careeers ruined by this?
PS - they are also making clear that England fans are the victims not aggressors in last nights violence.
Talk about going all in. If I wasn't seeing this with my own eyes - I wouldn't believe it.
That generation has done, and continues to do very well thankyou. No more emotional blackmail please.
"slightly less tasteless than knee-capping in NI."
Don't give him ideas.
You may be too young to remember the opening scenes of 'Blazing Saddles' where the black sheriff holds the gun to his own head and says "Back off, or the 'Conservatives' get it."
Whether we Brexit or Bremain, the Elites will win.
Why would anyone expect anything else?
As I have said before, the problem with victory at all costs is eventually the bill turns up and this one is going to be expensive.
Miss Plato,
Miss Plato 2, the "Vote the way I want or the spending gets it" line is perverse. He's PM. We'll still have a Conservative Government. I'm not a neutral in this, but it did come across as "I@m vindictive, so better do what I say or be punished."
It may work. But, if nothing else, it's another black mark against Cameron's name.
Excuse the four Yorkshiremen reference, but ... We had polio, tuberculosis, houses where an inside toilet was a rarity, and no central heating or telly. Lino instead of carpets and holidays were a day-trip on a coach. Luxury, pure luxury.
Owning your own home was a distant dream too.- join the club.
On In:
Alan Sugar is the UK's Donald Trump: A clown tv-presenter that create a few businesses that others - SKY - consumed to develop a global-platform. Had he been replaced by James Murdoch I would have been more impressed.
Steph' - the bike - Flanders: Oh please.
Barbour at least made cogent points. I may not agree with all of them but then I do not believe in 'unions' (outwith marriage).
Lord Robertson is not very bright: The EU is not the largest 'internal consumer market' (even when measured by "EU-doubletalk"). China and India have more consumers and we want to attract them (although we hope not to use our few, remaining 'gun-boats' you-and-yours [Labour and Remain] left us with).
Shami, balleaux: The Second World War started in Asia. Japanese attacks upon China (and it's goal of Asian 'Co-Existence' Zone) triggered the race to war and their solution does smell like "Remain-In". Grow-up and learn summinck useful!
Hawkins: Tube-Alloys. We've been there and dunnit. Less state intervention and more procurement would have saved our industries in dockyards and aerospace. And then came the 1957 Defence-Review, 'White-Light' bull and the EEC.
Summary:
Labour-luvvie Al-Beeboids talking bull.
On Out:
Normal folk discussing normal concerns. Apart from the NHS In/Out fiasco - a good Samaritan will always help someone in need - it was clearer and - sadly - struck emotional cords. Leave must be careful how they tackle migration: Change-tack and address the how the benefit system is abused by EU-deirectives and public-sector collaboration.
Summary:
No politicians; just normal people (though I dislike the implicit message).
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Can anyone with the Times post a summary of their front page story on Turkey - if it's half as bad as the headline then Remain are really in trouble.
I think we predicted on here several months ago pretty much to the day, when the PM would write his "Vote Remain or your pension gets it" blackmail letter. Sad to see the man and his office so diminished by this campaign, he must know in his heart by now that he's only got a fortnight left in the job.
Edit: that's a pretty unpleasant introduction. Don't like it at all.
Anyone born as late as 1940 will remember living through the war and the daily terrors, so that is anyone under 76
Anyone born as late as 1950 will remember the consequent poverty, bombed out city and cold and hunger due to the rationing of food and fuel - so that is anyone over 66.
Many also grew up in orphanages or if luckier had a single parent because the other had been killed in the armed forces or in bombing raids
So just about ALL pensioners were affected by World War 2 and they will be TOTALLY INFURIATED by Camerons comments.
Cameron is a total and utter fool and your comment is rather naive.
Iceberg, what iceberg?
"I overestimated the Prime Minister – a difficult thing for me to do since my opinion of him was so low. I did not think he could possibly have promised this vote with so little thought, preparation or skill."
Ouch
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/737525064199856128
I can certainly see agencies not wanting to take the business because it would irritate their staff, but would clients really make a decision based on something as tenuous as that?
No surprise that Leave have been trashing 'experts' but I see this as doing lasting damage to credibility of people who actually know what they're talking about in a range of disciplines. Who needs studied and analysed views when my mate down the pub has also been thinking about it?
As for the Tories, I'm sure the plan was to get this out of the way early in the parliament, so there are four years to regroup and put this behind them. The Lib Dems had four and a half years to try that on tuition fees - and we all saw how that worked out.
Not being able to deliver the manifesto due to one part of the manifesto is very bizzare logic.
Or to put it another way - if we voted leave and there WAS actually a significantly negative economic shock, would they think that perhaps a mistake had been made?
"Everything I hear now suggests that the votes for Leave are piling up, while the Remain cause is faltering and floundering. The betrayed supporters of both major parties now feel free to take revenge on their smug and arrogant leaders.
It has been a mystery to me that these voters stayed loyal to organisations that repeatedly spat on them from a great height. Labour doesn’t love the poor. It loves the London elite. The Tories don’t love the country. They love only money. The referendum, in which the parties are split and uncertain, has freed us all from silly tribal loyalties and allowed us to vote instead according to reason. We can all vote against the heedless, arrogant snobs who inflicted mass immigration on the poor (while making sure they lived far from its consequences themselves). And nobody can call us ‘racists’ for doing so. That’s not to say that the voters are ignoring the actual issue of EU membership as a whole. As I have known for decades, this country has gained nothing from belonging to the European Union, and lost a great deal.
If Zambia can be independent, why cannot we? If membership is so good for us, why has it been accompanied by savage industrial and commercial decline? If the Brussels system of sclerotic, centralised bureaucracy is so good, why doesn’t anyone else in the world adopt it?"
We did.
- visa free travel for 1.5m Turks who hold *special passports*
- this is a 'significant and symbolic' gesture to Turkey and thanks for holding up their end of the migrant deal
- to keep this secret until after 23rd June "to control the situation"
- Head of Europol confirms analysis that terrorist threat linked to migration - inc from false Syrian passports
Will be very popular among the young.
Indeed, arguably it is Rupert Murdoch that conforms more nearly to Trump, while James is comparable to Donald Trump Jr.
The LibDems failed to placate the Gods with a sacrificial offering, so the electorate did the job for them.
The Tories have their sacrifice ready. He just needs to be trussed up like a turkey and tossed in the oven.
Seventeen-years ago was the NATO intervention within Kosovo. Despite the crazies running NATO at the time General Sir Michael Jackson refused to attack Russian paratroopers that had invaded Pristina airport. Within months the following people were forced to resign:
General Wesley Clark (C-in-C, NATO),
Lord George Robertson (Head, NATO), and
General Sir Michael Jackson (C-in-C, KFOR).
Only the last is deserving of any respect....
Cameron has been daft enough to think that people actually voted for him.
For me this is about democracy and who governs us, there was a great article yesterday by James Dyson in the DT, very positive for the future outside the EU and I suspect a lot of entrepreneurs (as opposed to multinationals) feel the same way.
If you have to cut spending then you will be taking away money from the recipients.
Assuming spending is reasonably well targeted then by definition that is the people with the least (even changes to the state pension affect the poorest most as it's a bigger proportion of their retirement income).
It was good to see tax increases on the wealthiest decile as well.
He could have I suppose have only realised the Implications after the referendum pledge had been made. Alternatively his threats against the electorate are all bollocks and he knows it.
Is there anything? Absolutely anything at all we do in this country that is not going to come crashing down if we Brexit. We must be a pretty useless if our very existence relies solely on that bunch of incompetents in Brussels led by unelected presidents are our only saviours. So much so that even a British PM cannot run the country without some EU bureaucrat holding his hand.
The situation now seems to have become so desperate for Remain that it's thought no scare or threat is out of play. It's now to the point that Threatening and scaring pensioners and the NHS are a good idea or to parody that regular left wing line " the old the sick and the needy".
I think one reform I would definitely be in favour of, having been at various times a tenant and a landlord, is to give a sitting tenant a right of first refusal should the landlord decide to sell. Estate agents would of course hate that, but that's just a bonus, it's not why I'm proposing it.
So if Leae wins, Cameron and his cronies can cut pensions, close or sell off the NHS and do all the other things they have been threatening us with.
Their answer will be: "We told you what would happen if you voted for Leave. You did, and now it`s happening. We have our mandate, and you voted for it."
The only trouble is that nobody will be presuaded by their nonsense.
All that will happen it that people who for example work abroad for a few years will just leave their places empty.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/12/eu-referendum-labour-must-make-case-for-remain
Fox.com21st Century-Fox. Oh, something about men cometing with bicycles (but please refer with OGH Senior for details).On June 24th, the "blockbuster sequel" Independence Day: Resurgence is being released. While I don't think it will be a huge factor, I'm sure all the billboards and TV advertising might drill the message home that June 23rd is "Indepndence Day". I can see this swinging a few tens of thousands of votes to Leave. A few tens of thousands might be enough.
I'm seriously starting to think this might be 60-40 to Leave now.
I've said before it all seems straightforward and not in the least irrational as people are presenting it- Cameron likely knows his tactics are damaging, but sees no alternative, and that must mean he felt it would be close from the start. Victory at any cost was the only way to victory. Sure the bill will come due, but that's better than it being due right now if he loses.
He's using a political payday loan - it's only going to get him in to deeper trouble, but it gives him a chance to get by now to face things later.
Economic fear is the best card remain have. Not all leavers think things will be fine, as cyclefree put it yesterday some have decided the price is worth it. If the price looks higher, some will waver.
Enough? I don't think so. I think people are ignoring such warnings now and many of those feel things are crappy already. And it us a shame the best arguments remain have are so negative.
But I understand it, I believe Roger has said before, in politics going negative usually works.