You know Cameron mentioned free TV licences as a pensioner benefit which might be at risk? He does realise he's already snaffled those and left the BBC to pay? So he can't have that £700m back (unless he takes it twice, I guess, which is always a possibility!)
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
I don't know, can you tell me the answers to the same question if we Remain?
Some of us quiet, low-key, equable Remainers (who have lost the will to live and post here on the subject amidst the raucous, hubristic triumphalism) will permit ourselves a modest if wry smile should the result show a comfortable margin to stay on June 23rd (which I'm not predicting, having done no campaigning at all).
Well JohnO if you call refusing to be browbeaten triumphalism that's a bit sad. Most of the Leave posters on here still think Remain will win, though perhaps by a smaller margin than was first thought.
Of course most of the rancour was kicked off months back and those of us who said the Tories will regret this were laughed at. We'll see how things go on the 24th.
Except experts who matter who have relevant real world experience are not all on the Remain side are they? Why are you wilfully disrespecting experts like Dyson and others?
Who has more experience in setting up a business, running a business and trading globally? Dyson or Hawking?
If this was a debate about physics I'd trust Hawking. It's not its a debate about trade so Dyson is the expert here.
Fair enough - Alan Sugar supports staying in and was opposed to the UK joining the Euro.
Has Alan Sugar achieved anything in business as opposed to publicity in the last 25 years ?
Perhaps you'd like to remind us how successful he was at running Spurs.
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nobody knows what the future holds in general. What we can say with verified truth is that if we vote to stay part of the EU, Britain will be chaining herself the an undemocratic, paranoid and failing entity.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
Or, put another way, a minimum two years of complete uncertainty as a Brexit deal is hammered out.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
It will take a hit, I don't know, 3-5, some say so.
You are right to be concerned. I dont believe the most hylerbolic claims so feel the likely hit is a necessary price, but many will think otherwise if they dislike the eu a little less, cannot or are willing to take the risk of such a hit, or require more certainty. But the eh is unpalatable and no guarantor of certainty economically.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
And that goes back to the product & client - if the product has nothing to say neither can the advertising.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
The only valid comparison is Britain leaving the ERM in 1992 which had the following effects:
Sterling fall of 10% Rapid economic growth Lower inflation Lower interest rates
Now history rarely repeats exactly but a fall in the exchange rate almost always boosts economic growth and importantly rebalances the economy from wealth consumption to wealth creation.
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
I saw a clip on Sky that he's threatening to cut the Defence/NHS budgets too - and basically says that if we don't vote Remain, his entire manifesto can't be delivered.
Talk about going all in. If I wasn't seeing this with my own eyes - I wouldn't believe it.
It's completely true: what you voted for, what you used to cheer to the rafters is predicated on high levels of immigration and EU membership. You voted for policies designed to clear the deficit by 2020. If that is to happen it requires a certain level of growth, plus tax rises and spending cuts. If growth stalls as a result of Brexit - and even most Leavers concede it will - then to achieve what you voted for there will have to be further cuts and/or tax rises.
No we didn't we voted to not have a neomarxist Wonk and the Krankies (Salmond and Sturgeon) anywhere the leavers of power.
Cameron has been daft enough to think that people actually voted for him.
Plato made absolutely clear that she completely endorsed government policy. She used to be a big fan of everything it did. If you do not support moving to a surplus by 2020, fair enough.
Excuse me. Do not put words in my mouth or use me as a pawn in your proxy war.
I'm not. I am making a statement of fact. You are repudiating policies and strategies that just a few months ago you enthusiastically endorsed - such as Osborne's deficit reduction plan.
Just stop. Make your own case - and leave me out of it.
I am making the case that many Tory Leave supporters are hypocrites. You are helping me to make my case by pretending to be shocked by policies that just a few months ago you wholeheartedly supported.
I'll defend Plato and other loyal Tories on here. I stopped voting Tory in 2012 (Help to Buy was the tipping point), but I wouldn't hold it against those who defended the Tories against that numpty Ed Miliband. For too long there has been a dishonesty from all politicians. I'm not sure I entirely agree with the link you make between immigration and the deficit, but I think you're right to suggest that there would be negative consequences to dramatically reducing immigration.
But I think you're being unfair to have a go at Tories who are now seeing what Cameron and Osborne believe in. That's the great thing about this referendum, the Europhile Tories have been flushed out for what they are.
The very best you can say is that they did not understand the policies they were enthusiastically supporting.
Some of us quiet, low-key, equable Remainers (who have lost the will to live and post here on the subject amidst the raucous, hubristic triumphalism) will permit ourselves a modest if wry smile should the result show a comfortable margin to stay on June 23rd (which I'm not predicting, having done no campaigning at all).
It will be amusing to see who takes a leave of absence if they make a hugely wrong prediction.
Personally, as so eone who predicted a labour majority up until Feb 2015, and a plurality thereafter, I'm like a professional pundit in having no shame in being very wrong.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
Or, put another way, a minimum two years of complete uncertainty as a Brexit deal is hammered out.
You get out of bed every morning and what certainty have you got ?
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
Currently remains product seems to be STOP BORIS
Of little interest to most of the audience and a marmite position for the rest.
I think you're over analyzing the remarks of one panel member of a panel of three in a program seen by fewer than 1 in 20 of the electorate.
I'll defend Plato and other loyal Tories on here. I stopped voting Tory in 2012 (Help to Buy was the tipping point), but I wouldn't hold it against those who defended the Tories against that numpty Ed Miliband. For too long there has been a dishonesty from all politicians. I'm not sure I entirely agree with the link you make between immigration and the deficit, but I think you're right to suggest that there would be negative consequences to dramatically reducing immigration.
But I think you're being unfair to have a go at Tories who are now seeing what Cameron and Osborne believe in. That's the great thing about this referendum, the Europhile Tories have been flushed out for what they are.
Leaving policy to one side (and with the policy-related previous quotes removed for length) there are also questions of tactics and playing the man not the ball which were applauded when deployed against Labour but are now offensive when targeted at Leave and co. Likewise for the other side, the changes to voter registration: it turns out that oft-dismissed concerns were justified that changes would (as cynics might claim was the intention) remove the "wrong type of voter" from the registers, but now the wrong type of voter is suddenly the right type of voter.
Except experts who matter who have relevant real world experience are not all on the Remain side are they? Why are you wilfully disrespecting experts like Dyson and others?
Who has more experience in setting up a business, running a business and trading globally? Dyson or Hawking?
If this was a debate about physics I'd trust Hawking. It's not its a debate about trade so Dyson is the expert here.
Fair enough - Alan Sugar supports staying in and was opposed to the UK joining the Euro.
Has Alan Sugar achieved anything in business as opposed to publicity in the last 25 years ?
Perhaps you'd like to remind us how successful he was at running Spurs.
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
IIRC Dyson had to move his manufacturing overseas because his chosen site was refused planning permission for expansion in Nimbytown.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
The only valid comparison is Britain leaving the ERM in 1992 which had the following effects:
Sterling fall of 10% Rapid economic growth Lower inflation Lower interest rates
Now history rarely repeats exactly but a fall in the exchange rate almost always boosts economic growth and importantly rebalances the economy from wealth consumption to wealth creation.
I suspect the fall in interest rates had a lot to do with post 1992 growth - now they can only rise.
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
Or, put another way, a minimum two years of complete uncertainty as a Brexit deal is hammered out.
You get out of bed every morning and what certainty have you got ?
Based on previous experience a great deal. Certain things happen like clockwork, believe me! Thus, the unexpected is easier to deal with.
Except experts who matter who have relevant real world experience are not all on the Remain side are they? Why are you wilfully disrespecting experts like Dyson and others?
Who has more experience in setting up a business, running a business and trading globally? Dyson or Hawking?
If this was a debate about physics I'd trust Hawking. It's not its a debate about trade so Dyson is the expert here.
Fair enough - Alan Sugar supports staying in and was opposed to the UK joining the Euro.
Has Alan Sugar achieved anything in business as opposed to publicity in the last 25 years ?
Perhaps you'd like to remind us how successful he was at running Spurs.
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
Sugar achieved great things in the 1970s and 1980s since when pretty much everything he has done in business, as opposed to self-publicity, has been a failure.
Personally I believe that people should think for themselves rather than do what some famous name tells them to do, whatever the issue.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
Currently remains product seems to be STOP BORIS
Of little interest to most of the audience and a marmite position for the rest.
I think you're over analyzing the remarks of one panel member of a panel of three in a program seen by fewer than 1 in 20 of the electorate.
And yet taken up today by Dan and sotto voce dripped out by the rest of the commentariat. Frankly it doesnt matter if it is or isnt true, it's what Remain are letting people think is the case.
The point I have made-apparently unsuccessfully-is that the 'Remain' broadcast and everthing else we are seeing from the Remain side is likely to be the result of extensive research and targetting. If 'YOU' aren't seeing it then (probably) you're not the target market.
You'll either be in the bag or in the other side's bag or unconvincable!!
As ever a good point Roger, however the problem here is we are on new ground. I suspect the campaigns are headed by politicos who know their own supporters and their parties' target swing groups well. This works under FPTP when you can effectively ignore the views of 50% of the electorate.
However in a referendum everything's all mixed up. Some of your swing voters are probably people you have never engaged with before, or are a forced choice where targeting one group's key values offends another. that's why I think the communication side of this referendum is so hard to manage, a lot of it is treading new ground and as a results lots of mistakes are being made by both sides.
I think they'll be much more specific than that with multiple focus groups in all areas. They'll be very specifically targetting the 'don't knows' and trying not to offend those already in the bag. It seems pretty obvious that this 20% of the population are
1. Unconvinced by Farage. Possibly even hostile(Cameron's targetting) 2. Don't wan't to be seen as chauvinists (several little Englander references) 3. Are impressed by middle of the road 'experts' (choice of talking heads) 4. Don't like the scare stories. Prefer straight talking (Every speaker mentioned 'not perfect' 5. See themselves as middle of the road. (from the scripted talking heads)
I'm working backwards. After the focus groups they would have written a report which would lead to a brief which will have been answered by the bradcast and various other statements that we've seen over the last few days.
I was going to write specifically about the focus groups and their possible findings but 'Leave' ran the same broadcast twice and don't seem to be using research so it would be a bit too one sided
We are due a slow-down (after five-years of sub-optimal growth): Only "One-Eyed-Fools" believe you can end 'boom-and-bus't. We may even get a quarter of negative-growth but the overall effect should be light...!
We should not panic though: Economies should go through cycles. Do not conflate cyclical growth-rates with the EU referendum: We have no test-data to analyse on what the impact of 'Out' will be (outwith samples from the 'Sixties and before). We can only judge upon what is best for our country.
I'll defend Plato and other loyal Tories on here. I stopped voting Tory in 2012 (Help to Buy was the tipping point), but I wouldn't hold it against those who defended the Tories against that numpty Ed Miliband. For too long there has been a dishonesty from all politicians. I'm not sure I entirely agree with the link you make between immigration and the deficit, but I think you're right to suggest that there would be negative consequences to dramatically reducing immigration.
But I think you're being unfair to have a go at Tories who are now seeing what Cameron and Osborne believe in. That's the great thing about this referendum, the Europhile Tories have been flushed out for what they are.
Leaving policy to one side (and with the policy-related previous quotes removed for length) there are also questions of tactics and playing the man not the ball which were applauded when deployed against Labour but are now offensive when targeted at Leave and co. Likewise for the other side, the changes to voter registration: it turns out that oft-dismissed concerns were justified that changes would (as cynics might claim was the intention) remove the "wrong type of voter" from the registers, but now the wrong type of voter is suddenly the right type of voter.
I think that's probably fair, though I can't remember specific Tories on here egging on Cameron and Co as they deployed every available tactic. Actually I can (cough TSE cough) but they seem to be for Remain. Of course, there are Labour Remainers who have conveniently turned a blind eye to some of the tactics deployed by Remain during this campaign.
I think we need to be a bit careful with all this 'it's gonna be leave' hysteria. A few promising polls but no reason to start thinking it's all over. If the polls are level on polling day I expect a remain win.
Some of us quiet, low-key, equable Remainers (who have lost the will to live and post here on the subject amidst the raucous, hubristic triumphalism) will permit ourselves a modest if wry smile should the result show a comfortable margin to stay on June 23rd (which I'm not predicting, having done no campaigning at all).
It will be amusing to see who takes a leave of absence if they make a hugely wrong prediction.
Personally, as so eone who predicted a labour majority up until Feb 2015, and a plurality thereafter, I'm like a professional pundit in having no shame in being very wrong.
No, if Remain does prevail by a clear margin, they will be even more raucous and rancorous; ignoble betrayals, Cameron's treachery, resigning party memberships etc etc. Their fury will have no bounds.
Except experts who matter who have relevant real world experience are not all on the Remain side are they? Why are you wilfully disrespecting experts like Dyson and others?
Who has more experience in setting up a business, running a business and trading globally? Dyson or Hawking?
If this was a debate about physics I'd trust Hawking. It's not its a debate about trade so Dyson is the expert here.
Fair enough - Alan Sugar supports staying in and was opposed to the UK joining the Euro.
Has Alan Sugar achieved anything in business as opposed to publicity in the last 25 years ?
Perhaps you'd like to remind us how successful he was at running Spurs.
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
Sugar achieved great things in the 1970s and 1980s since when pretty much everything he has done in business, as opposed to self-publicity, has been a failure.
Personally I believe that people should think for themselves rather than do what some famous name tells them to do, whatever the issue.
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
It's a point that EiT and not many others have made about immigration. Employers like having hard-working staff who accept modest wages for low-skilled jobs. If they can't bring them to Britain, they tend to move the jobs to them. Saying "Oh, well, I'll have to pay twice as much then" is sadly untypical of successful employers.
This is obviously only relevant to manufacturing and computer/phone-based services - you can't move the NHS or home help to Malaysia.
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
And that goes back to the product & client - if the product has nothing to say neither can the advertising.
Again I can't entirely agree. I think a lot is due to a culture within advertising of 'getting the advert talked about' etc. If this happens, but the product doesn't sell, it's conveniently blamed on the product. It's actually the product that should be talked about, not the advert, and one could argue the two are inversely proportional.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
Or, put another way, a minimum two years of complete uncertainty as a Brexit deal is hammered out.
You get out of bed every morning and what certainty have you got ?
Based on previous experience a great deal. Certain things happen like clockwork, believe me! Thus, the unexpected is easier to deal with.
The certainty is largely your perception. The biggest impact on life is usually something coming out of the blue and changing those perceptions.
I think we need to be a bit careful with all this 'it's gonna be leave' hysteria. A few promising polls but no reason to start thinking it's all over. If the polls are level on polling day I expect a remain win.
There will almost certainly be a swing-back to REMAIN though by how much it's hard to say. REMAIN is not a "status quo" or risk free option (unlike say STAY was during SINDY) LEAVE needs to push that message during the final days.
I think it really is 50/50 but even if REMAIN pulls it out the fire in the end we've still given the establishment in general and posh boy Cameron in particular, one hell of a fright (and probably ensured Cameron and Osborne are destroyed whatever the result)
Some of us quiet, low-key, equable Remainers (who have lost the will to live and post here on the subject amidst the raucous, hubristic triumphalism) will permit ourselves a modest if wry smile should the result show a comfortable margin to stay on June 23rd (which I'm not predicting, having done no campaigning at all).
It will be amusing to see who takes a leave of absence if they make a hugely wrong prediction.
Personally, as so eone who predicted a labour majority up until Feb 2015, and a plurality thereafter, I'm like a professional pundit in having no shame in being very wrong.
No, if Remain does prevail by a clear margin, they will be even more raucous and rancorous; ignoble betrayals, Cameron's treachery, resigning party memberships etc etc. Their fury will have no bounds.
As for resigning memberships of course that's anybody's choice, but as I used to say to leavers who thought they'd lose when I was a remainer who thought leave would win, even f the media and establishment are mostly remain, leave have plenty of support there and can call out any unfair tactics or untrue claims. If after that remain win comfortably, the only people to really be mad at are the public. They will have heard both sides and chosen.
Most interesting thing from Cameron was admission that vote to leave included vote to leave single market i.e. no EFTA/EEA. Seemed to imply that Norway option would be worst of all possible worlds because of having no say over making the rules.
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
I saw a clip on Sky that he's threatening to cut the Defence/NHS budgets too - and basically says that if we don't vote Remain, his entire manifesto can't be delivered.
Talk about going all in. If I wasn't seeing this with my own eyes - I wouldn't believe it.
It's completely true: what you voted for, what you used to cheer to the rafters is predicated on high levels of immigration and EU membership. You voted for policies designed to clear the deficit by 2020. If that is to happen it requires a certain level of growth, plus tax rises and spending cuts. If growth stalls as a result of Brexit - and even most Leavers concede it will - then to achieve what you voted for there will have to be further cuts and/or tax rises.
No we didn't we voted to not have a neomarxist Wonk and the Krankies (Salmond and Sturgeon) anywhere the leavers of power.
Cameron has been daft enough to think that people actually voted for him.
Plato made absolutely clear that she completely endorsed government policy. She used to be a big fan of everything it did. If you do not support moving to a surplus by 2020, fair enough.
Excuse me. Do not put words in my mouth or use me as a pawn in your proxy war.
I'm not. I am making a statement of fact. You are repudiating policies and strategies that just a few months ago you enthusiastically endorsed - such as Osborne's deficit reduction plan.
Just stop. Make your own case - and leave me out of it.
I am making the case that many Tory Leave supporters are hypocrites. You are helping me to make my case by pretending to be shocked by policies that just a few months ago you wholeheartedly supported.
I love how they are pitching themselves as the champions of the "downtrodden" working class: the very same people they have spent the last 6 years deriding as feckless scroungers and cheering on cuts in their benefits. And their sudden fetish for non-EU migration despite enthusiastically backing the immigration cap and restrictions on spousal visas introduced in the last parliament
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
And that goes back to the product & client - if the product has nothing to say neither can the advertising.
Again I can't entirely agree. I think a lot is due to a culture within advertising of 'getting the advert talked about' etc. If this happens, but the product doesn't sell, it's conveniently blamed on the product. It's actually the product that should be talked about, not the advert, and one could argue the two are inversely proportional.
I think there's something I that. Being remembered is described as a good ad, but sometimes with such ads the product is forgotten.
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
No, we won't. The senior Remainers are not going to be jettisoned by someone like May.
The Cameron pension line is obviously and clearly wrong. The Tory Leave elite, like the Tory Remain elite, will do nothing to harm the Tory client state. They know just as well as Dave and George who they need to look after in order to get elected.
Which sort of makes threatening them a bit mad. I really don't get where Cameron's coming from, winning a vote is one thing doing it while annoying all your core supporters is another.
As I have said before, the problem with victory at all costs is eventually the bill turns up and this one is going to be expensive.
I said a long time ago that you'd know Remain were seriously worried about losing if they raised pensions as an issue. Ten days out and lo and behold. This tells me that Leave have it in the bag.
Leave absolutely do not have this in the bag.
No but we're winning, if mostly due to topics I personally don't care about.
I'm not sure. I think Leave are underestimating just how many voters (totally inaccurately, of course) fear for their short-term wallets. And not much else.
There are an awful lot of those.
I said it many weeks ago that people would vote Remain to save a FIVER. That was what happened in Scottish Referendum, some fools voted based on greed having been told their pensions would be cut. Naked personal greed due to fear will win it for Remain.
We English are made of sterner stuff and don't have quite such a love for the contents of our spporrans (wallets)
I hope you are correct Paul, it was most disappointing to have proof that more than 50% of Scots had no backbone given the discourse over the campaign. Cowed into submission for Fiver.
The Leave campaign might be being run by the Tories, but its going to be won by the poor and the working classes, AB voters are voting remain, remember ? When the results come in and it's a leave result due to Old Labour voters are you finally going to quit this crap and admit that the poor voted for what they wanted, and stop infantilising them as being mislead by "Tory Leavers".
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
It's a point that EiT and not many others have made about immigration. Employers like having hard-working staff who accept modest wages for low-skilled jobs. If they can't bring them to Britain, they tend to move the jobs to them. Saying "Oh, well, I'll have to pay twice as much then" is sadly untypical of successful employers.
This is obviously only relevant to manufacturing and computer/phone-based services - you can't move the NHS or home help to Malaysia.
Hmmm. You may be right in some respects. However I think it is about time there was an acknowledgement that the incredibly low level of investment in training and upskilling the domestic workforce and preferring to get ready-made people from abroad is perhaps not conducive to social cohesion. You might also argue that it's a little peculiar for us to spend 0.7% GDP on foreign aid whilst refusing to train enough domestic doctors and nurses and having to bring in people (expensively) trained in poor countries to our ultimate benefit.
I wonder sometimes if you are less a socialist and more a gentlemanly capitalist who believes in a strong welfare state. A post-war Tory even.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
And that goes back to the product & client - if the product has nothing to say neither can the advertising.
Again I can't entirely agree. I think a lot is due to a culture within advertising of 'getting the advert talked about' etc. If this happens, but the product doesn't sell, it's conveniently blamed on the product. It's actually the product that should be talked about, not the advert, and one could argue the two are inversely proportional.
No, if Remain does prevail by a clear margin, they will be even more raucous and rancorous; ignoble betrayals, Cameron's treachery, resigning party memberships etc etc. Their fury will have no bounds.
Old man, grab a chair:
I returned to the Conservative Party to stop eejits like yourself and TSE/DH/HB screwing-up our future. We are not planning to infight with you 'One-Nation' hysterics but to out-argue you: We will attempt to convince you that our roots lay with free-trade and commerce and that we will not make anyone subserviant to another.
We are probably closer to your victor [a few months ago] then with your vanquished career. Our goal is to save the party from chimeras and poncy-shoed lawyers. We are the party that will represent our nation - subjects, residents and visitors - and not some neo-colonial socialist elite. Be scared; for we are coming...!
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
And that goes back to the product & client - if the product has nothing to say neither can the advertising.
Again I can't entirely agree. I think a lot is due to a culture within advertising of 'getting the advert talked about' etc. If this happens, but the product doesn't sell, it's conveniently blamed on the product. It's actually the product that should be talked about, not the advert, and one could argue the two are inversely proportional.
I think there's something I that. Being remembered is described as a good ad, but sometimes with such ads the product is forgotten.
Frequently- but its the clients who approved the ad you should blame. Advertising Agencies don't make ads with their own money.
On why LEAVE haven't got an Agency - who wants Dominic Cummings as a client?
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
All products that people have to buy and so would purchase regardless of the dullards crap adverts.
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
With a majority of 7? I'm sure the Majorites on the backbenches will enjoy themselves.
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
It was what saved him in Scottish Referendum, that was the last throw of the dice and the pensioners saved him based on fear. His last great hope yet again.
Except it wasn't. Cameron has drawn the wrong lesson by focusing on the result rather than the direction of travel over the previous months. The relentless negativity of Better Together (too poor, too wee, too stupid) almost lost against the optimism of the independence movement. What turned things around were the vow and the last-minute intervention of Gordon Brown in presenting a positive case for the union.
Both Cameron and Brown majored on losing pensions, that was their positive case. It was a bare faced lie then and is no different this time.
Slightly different, Mr G.
The EU has no interaction with the UK pension, whereas Scotland/UK are fully entangled.
Cameron couldn't get tax credit cuts through so he doesn't have a cat in hell's of getting pension cuts through.
A simple question would suffice to all remain MPs
"Dear Tory/Labour/SNP MP,
Would you support a vote to cut your constituents' pensions in a Westminster vote?"
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
With a majority of 7? I'm sure the Majorites on the backbenches will enjoy themselves.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
All products that people have to buy and so would purchase regardless of the dullards crap adverts.
No, if Remain does prevail by a clear margin, they will be even more raucous and rancorous; ignoble betrayals, Cameron's treachery, resigning party memberships etc etc. Their fury will have no bounds.
Old man, grab a chair:
I returned to the Conservative Party to stop eejits like yourself and TSE/DH/HB screwing-up our future. We are not planning to infight with you 'One-Nation' hysterics but to out-argue you: We will attempt to convince you that our roots lay with free-trade and commerce and that we will not make anyone subserviant to another.
We are probably closer to your victor [a few months ago] then with your vanquished career. Our goal is to save the party from chimeras and poncy-shoed lawyers. We are the party that will represent our nation - subjects, residents and visitors - and not some neo-colonial socialist elite. Be scared; for we are coming...!
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
All products that people have to buy and so would purchase regardless of the dullards crap adverts.
Since there is more than one brand advertising influences which they buy
Except experts who matter who have relevant real world experience are not all on the Remain side are they? Why are you wilfully disrespecting experts like Dyson and others?
Who has more experience in setting up a business, running a business and trading globally? Dyson or Hawking?
If this was a debate about physics I'd trust Hawking. It's not its a debate about trade so Dyson is the expert here.
Fair enough - Alan Sugar supports staying in and was opposed to the UK joining the Euro.
Has Alan Sugar achieved anything in business as opposed to publicity in the last 25 years ?
Perhaps you'd like to remind us how successful he was at running Spurs.
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
Yes and purely out of self interest. Anyone who cannot see that is a fool of the highest order. Of course rich people will be Remain to keep the gravy flowing. Bigger question is why do poor fools believe these chancers and vote against their own interests to keep these "successful" people earning more and more.
“If you think using professionals is expensive you should see what it costs to use amateurs."
I once quoted that Red Adair saying, and the other person replied with
'The Titanic was built by professionals, The Ark was built by amateurs'
But thank you for another excellent piece Roger
In fairness, there wasn't much wrong with the construction of the Titanic.
To a point I would certainly agree.
However ship construction now requires the bulkheads to go to the "uppermost continuous deck" and damage stability to be taken into account. ( to a point the designers of Titanic did consider damage stability at least)
The SOLAS* regulations also evolved directly from this disaster that has protected Mariners ever since and saved many lives at sea. You will now see this manifestation on commercial vessels, ferries and other craft.
* Safety of Life At Sea.
The Titanic was the safest-designed ship afloat at the time. Witness her contemporaries, the Lusitania and Empress of Ireland, which both went to the bottom in less than 20 minutes, after suffering far less damage than the Titanic did.
But no ship is unsinkable. The tragedy was not in the design of the ship, but in the weakness of the general laws relating to safety at sea.
There's a scene at the end of ANTR which always chokes me up. As Captain Rostron (who lived in Crosby) of the Carpathia surveys the pathetic flotsam floating by on the morning after the disaster, the wireless man comes on to the bridge with a message from the Californian, which has just arrived on the scene and is asking if there is anything they can do.
Rostron says: "Tell them... 'No. Nothing. Everything that was humanly possible has been done...'"
Then the titles roll, explaining the sacrifice was not in vain, that there are now lifeboats for all, 24-hour radio watch, and ice-patrols in the North Atlantic...
Fair enough that's his argument - but it doesn't remotely fit in with the crack down on immigration promised by the leave campaign.
(Insert daily reminder that this is a referendum not a General Election, and that Farage is not, and will not be in the government after the referendum)
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
It was what saved him in Scottish Referendum, that was the last throw of the dice and the pensioners saved him based on fear. His last great hope yet again.
Except it wasn't. Cameron has drawn the wrong lesson by focusing on the result rather than the direction of travel over the previous months. The relentless negativity of Better Together (too poor, too wee, too stupid) almost lost against the optimism of the independence movement. What turned things around were the vow and the last-minute intervention of Gordon Brown in presenting a positive case for the union.
Both Cameron and Brown majored on losing pensions, that was their positive case. It was a bare faced lie then and is no different this time.
Slightly different, Mr G.
The EU has no interaction with the UK pension, whereas Scotland/UK are fully entangled.
Cameron couldn't get tax credit cuts through so he doesn't have a cat in hell's of getting pension cuts through.
A simple question would suffice to all remain MPs
"Dear Tory/Labour/SNP MP,
Would you support a vote to cut your constituents' pensions in a Westminster vote?"
It is just the same lie however , and just the same if different union , so is very comparable.
I think we need to be a bit careful with all this 'it's gonna be leave' hysteria. A few promising polls but no reason to start thinking it's all over. If the polls are level on polling day I expect a remain win.
There will almost certainly be a swing-back to REMAIN though by how much it's hard to say. REMAIN is not a "status quo" or risk free option (unlike say STAY was during SINDY) LEAVE needs to push that message during the final days.
I think it really is 50/50 but even if REMAIN pulls it out the fire in the end we've still given the establishment in general and posh boy Cameron in particular, one hell of a fright (and probably ensured Cameron and Osborne are destroyed whatever the result)
the same nonsense was said about the Scottish referendum
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I think leave will win too, but it has to be pointed out that your reasoning for thinking so is the same for IndyRef Yessers thinking they were going to win.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I think we need to be a bit careful with all this 'it's gonna be leave' hysteria. A few promising polls but no reason to start thinking it's all over. If the polls are level on polling day I expect a remain win.
There will almost certainly be a swing-back to REMAIN though by how much it's hard to say. REMAIN is not a "status quo" or risk free option (unlike say STAY was during SINDY) LEAVE needs to push that message during the final days.
I think it really is 50/50 but even if REMAIN pulls it out the fire in the end we've still given the establishment in general and posh boy Cameron in particular, one hell of a fright (and probably ensured Cameron and Osborne are destroyed whatever the result)
the same nonsense was said about the Scottish referendum
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
And that goes back to the product & client - if the product has nothing to say neither can the advertising.
Again I can't entirely agree. I think a lot is due to a culture within advertising of 'getting the advert talked about' etc. If this happens, but the product doesn't sell, it's conveniently blamed on the product. It's actually the product that should be talked about, not the advert, and one could argue the two are inversely proportional.
I can think of many campaigns where I'd no idea what the product was. I saw dozens of Just Eat ads recently, and never noticed the call-to-action or brand. I only realised when YouGov kept asking me if I'd heard of them.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I've tried to filter that out, really. But everything I hear, everything I see, everything that rumbles from my gut says Remain are going down....
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
The only valid comparison is Britain leaving the ERM in 1992 which had the following effects:
Sterling fall of 10% Rapid economic growth Lower inflation Lower interest rates
Now history rarely repeats exactly but a fall in the exchange rate almost always boosts economic growth and importantly rebalances the economy from wealth consumption to wealth creation.
I suspect the fall in interest rates had a lot to do with post 1992 growth - now they can only rise.
Well the fall in interest rates certainly stopped hundreds of thousands of families having their homes repossessed whom John Major was willing to sacrifice on his ERM altar.
But there was a boost across the economy from leaving the ERM with a rebalancing to export led growth as Britain moved from the trade deficits which had been continuous from the mid 1980s to trade surpluses from 1994 onwards:
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
It's a point that EiT and not many others have made about immigration. Employers like having hard-working staff who accept modest wages for low-skilled jobs. If they can't bring them to Britain, they tend to move the jobs to them. Saying "Oh, well, I'll have to pay twice as much then" is sadly untypical of successful employers.
This is obviously only relevant to manufacturing and computer/phone-based services - you can't move the NHS or home help to Malaysia.
Hmmm. You may be right in some respects. However I think it is about time there was an acknowledgement that the incredibly low level of investment in training and upskilling the domestic workforce and preferring to get ready-made people from abroad is perhaps not conducive to social cohesion. You might also argue that it's a little peculiar for us to spend 0.7% GDP on foreign aid whilst refusing to train enough domestic doctors and nurses and having to bring in people (expensively) trained in poor countries to our ultimate benefit.
I wonder sometimes if you are less a socialist and more a gentlemanly capitalist who believes in a strong welfare state. A post-war Tory even.
British business has been failing to invest properly for decades. Poor management decision-making is the perennial British disease.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
All products that people have to buy and so would purchase regardless of the dullards crap adverts.
Since there is more than one brand advertising influences which they buy
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
With a majority of 7? I'm sure the Majorites on the backbenches will enjoy themselves.
The Majorites? Plural???
I can't see all the Remainian Tories gladly falling behind a leave government. Ken Clarke, Stephen Dorrell plus one or two others and the majority is gone.
Most interesting thing from Cameron was admission that vote to leave included vote to leave single market i.e. no EFTA/EEA. Seemed to imply that Norway option would be worst of all possible worlds because of having no say over making the rules.
Yep. He is still pushing that lie. He has to because without it his objections to the EEA disappear completely.
It's a point that EiT and not many others have made about immigration. Employers like having hard-working staff who accept modest wages for low-skilled jobs. If they can't bring them to Britain, they tend to move the jobs to them. Saying "Oh, well, I'll have to pay twice as much then" is sadly untypical of successful employers.
This is obviously only relevant to manufacturing and computer/phone-based services - you can't move the NHS or home help to Malaysia.
I think that in a networked world with free movement of goods, even that last caveat is actually a little bit less true than it sounds, because even when you can't provide a service remotely, you can substitute goods for services.
The example I've give here before is buying coffee in Japan: I used to go to a shop where the staff would operate the machine to make my coffee, which would need a fair amount of cleaning and maintenance and a bit of time to operate. Now what happens is that the convenience store sell me a paper cup for 100 yen, a transaction that takes their guy literally 3 seconds, and I operate the machine myself. This is possible because someone somewhere is manufacturing the machine, all the various machine parts, and the little plastic capsules, that makes the whole "service" part maybe an order of magnitude less labour-intensive than it used to be.
I'm sure there's a huge amount of scope for this with medical technology, and a fair bit with home-help-type stuff.
I think Britain's a bit unusual in having a significant constituency that claims to support free movement of goods while being strongly opposed to free movement of labour. This position doesn't really make much sense, and in practice once they got what they wanted with labour I suspect the same people would start backtracking on free trade in goods, as we saw when the UK mainstream suddenly went protectionist over steel during the cost of basically a single news cycle.
One factor in those Nobel Laureate luvvies' (poor things) endorsement of "Remain" is surely the fact that EU research funding is favourable to the UK.
Several interesting comments were made about the above. In it's limited context I think it's fact, but I agree that research funding is skewed away from the non-Oxbridge universities. I believe that process has been going on for some time, encouraged by non-technical politicians who can count just well enough to "evaluate" "progress". And, if I am correct, this makes it largely a trend encouraged by our own "sovereign" self governance. In the latter regard, we need to listen to our seasoned experts, encourage them to serve in government management, and actually take what they say seriously.
The case of Prof. Nutt springs to mind. He was fired, I believe, for saying what the politicos didn't want to hear.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
There will be Labour constituencies that vote 70/30 Leave. But there'll be others (and SNP constituencies, and even some Tory constituencies) that vote just as heavily to Remain.
Just looking at the rather amusing "shoot to kill" Dan Hodges article. A few choice quotes:
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
It is amazing how Hodges' rabid Europhilia has clouded his judgement on the EU referendum to the extent of it being a complete waste of time to read his articles.
Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, I am shocked I tell you.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
All products that people have to buy and so would purchase regardless of the dullards crap adverts.
The Leave campaign might be being run by the Tories, but its going to be won by the poor and the working classes, AB voters are voting remain, remember ? When the results come in and it's a leave result due to Old Labour voters are you finally going to quit this crap and admit that the poor voted for what they wanted, and stop infantilising them as being mislead by "Tory Leavers".
When I refer to Tory Leavers I refer to Leavers who are Tories. I understand absolutely why a lot of Labour voters are going to vote Leave. My fear is that they will end up very disappointed as those who will continue to govern clearly have very little concern for their well-being.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I've tried to filter that out, really. But everything I hear, everything I see, everything that rumbles from my gut says Remain are going down....
Any thoughts on how your local LibDem voters are going to go ?
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
Or, put another way, a minimum two years of complete uncertainty as a Brexit deal is hammered out.
Compared to decades of complete uncertainty if we stay in as we unsuccessfully fight every new EU edict and move towards Ever Closer Union. Continual threats to leave and half hearted attempts to push the EU in 'our' direction whilst the continual Euro crisis drives the rest of the continent into federalism.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
All products that people have to buy and so would purchase regardless of the dullards crap adverts.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
There will be Labour constituencies that vote 70/30 Leave. But there'll be others (and SNP constituencies, and even some Tory constituencies) that vote just as heavily to Remain.
That is indeed the problem. Mid Beds where I live might reasonably have been expected to vote 70/30 leave, however the Remain lot need the labour vote. If Sunderland declares anything like 70/30 Remain are toast.
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
I saw a clip on Sky that he's threatening to cut the Defence/NHS budgets too - and basically says that if we don't vote Remain, his entire manifesto can't be delivered.
Talk about going all in. If I wasn't seeing this with my own eyes - I wouldn't believe it.
It's completely true: what you voted for, what you used to cheer to the rafters is predicated on high levels of immigration and EU membership. You voted for policies designed to clear the deficit by 2020. If that is to happen it requires a certain level of growth, plus tax rises and spending cuts. If growth stalls as a result of Brexit - and even most Leavers concede it will - then to achieve what you voted for there will have to be further cuts and/or tax rises.
No we didn't we voted to not have a neomarxist Wonk and the Krankies (Salmond and Sturgeon) anywhere the leavers of power.
Cameron has been daft enough to think that people actually voted for him.
Plato made absolutely clear that she completely endorsed government policy. She used to be a big fan of everything it did. If you do not support moving to a surplus by 2020, fair enough.
Excuse me. Do not put words in my mouth or use me as a pawn in your proxy war.
I'm not. I am making a statement of fact. You are repudiating policies and strategies that just a few months ago you enthusiastically endorsed - such as Osborne's deficit reduction plan.
Just stop. Make your own case - and leave me out of it.
I am making the case that many Tory Leave supporters are hypocrites. You are helping me to make my case by pretending to be shocked by policies that just a few months ago you wholeheartedly supported.
I love how they are pitching themselves as the champions of the "downtrodden" working class: the very same people they have spent the last 6 years deriding as feckless scroungers and cheering on cuts in their benefits. And their sudden fetish for non-EU migration despite enthusiastically backing the immigration cap and restrictions on spousal visas introduced in the last parliament
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I remember David (forgotten full username, lives in Dundee) giving honest feedback that they expected Yes to win narrowly in his city, which they did in the end. He never said it was anything like 70:30 either way. I canvassed in the Borders, and in a mixed area I think we were ahead something like 55:45 (villages were overwhelmingly No).
We are now seeing reports of 60%, 70%, even 80% for Leave in Northern towns and London boroughs. Are there really enough people in Hampstead to outweigh them?
Casino, will you do any canvassing? Would be good to get an idea of opinion in rural England. Perhaps they are less concerned by immigration, and hence more inclined to Remain than those living nearer large cities?
Most interesting thing from Cameron was admission that vote to leave included vote to leave single market i.e. no EFTA/EEA. Seemed to imply that Norway option would be worst of all possible worlds because of having no say over making the rules.
Yep. He is still pushing that lie. He has to because without it his objections to the EEA disappear completely.
If its a Leave vote Cameron isn't going to have any say in what happens next.
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
I saw a clip on Sky that he's threatening to cut the Defence/NHS budgets too - and basically says that if we don't vote Remain, his entire manifesto can't be delivered.
Talk about going all in. If I wasn't seeing this with my own eyes - I wouldn't believe it.
It's completely true: what you voted for, what you used to cheer to the rafters is predicated on high levels of immigration and EU membership. You voted for policies designed to clear the deficit by 2020. If that is to happen it requires a certain level of growth, plus tax rises and spending cuts. If growth stalls as a result of Brexit - and even most Leavers concede it will - then to achieve what you voted for there will have to be further cuts and/or tax rises.
No we didn't we voted to not have a neomarxist Wonk and the Krankies (Salmond and Sturgeon) anywhere the leavers of power.
Cameron has been daft enough to think that people actually voted for him.
Plato made absolutely clear that she completely endorsed government policy. She used to be a big fan of everything it did. If you do not support moving to a surplus by 2020, fair enough.
Excuse me. Do not put words in my mouth or use me as a pawn in your proxy war.
I'm not. I am making a statement of fact. You are repudiating policies and strategies that just a few months ago you enthusiastically endorsed - such as Osborne's deficit reduction plan.
Just stop. Make your own case - and leave me out of it.
I am making the case that many Tory Leave supporters are hypocrites. You are helping me to make my case by pretending to be shocked by policies that just a few months ago you wholeheartedly supported.
I love how they are pitching themselves as the champions of the "downtrodden" working class: the very same people they have spent the last 6 years deriding as feckless scroungers and cheering on cuts in their benefits. And their sudden fetish for non-EU migration despite enthusiastically backing the immigration cap and restrictions on spousal visas introduced in the last parliament
Yep!
The downtrodden working class are the ones paying for the benefits while the recipients laze in bed for 7 days or five days if they are working a couple of days a week to max out on tax credits
He was awful. But he has also achieved a great deal. Dyson has done very well too, his decision to put hundreds of Brits out of work and move his manufacturing to Malaysia has proved to be a great one for him. There are plenty of successful business people advocating a Remain vote.
It's a point that EiT and not many others have made about immigration. Employers like having hard-working staff who accept modest wages for low-skilled jobs. If they can't bring them to Britain, they tend to move the jobs to them. Saying "Oh, well, I'll have to pay twice as much then" is sadly untypical of successful employers.
This is obviously only relevant to manufacturing and computer/phone-based services - you can't move the NHS or home help to Malaysia.
Hmmm. You may be right in some respects. However I think it is about time there was an acknowledgement that the incredibly low level of investment in training and upskilling the domestic workforce and preferring to get ready-made people from abroad is perhaps not conducive to social cohesion. You might also argue that it's a little peculiar for us to spend 0.7% GDP on foreign aid whilst refusing to train enough domestic doctors and nurses and having to bring in people (expensively) trained in poor countries to our ultimate benefit.
I wonder sometimes if you are less a socialist and more a gentlemanly capitalist who believes in a strong welfare state. A post-war Tory even.
No, but I'm a realist who tries to separate what I want from what will actually happen. I should be delighted if we had a government that gave priority to investment and training for just the reasons you describe (and others). I like what McDonnell is saying because he seems to be moving in that direction. I was dispirited by the tactical stuff that we were pushing in the 2015 election (temporarty price freeze et al).
But I'm not expecting any of that to happen any time soon - in fact I don't expect it *ever* under a Tory government, so even a start in that direction is unlikely before 2020, if then. Right now, in Britain as it is, I think that employers able to move to cheaper labour will do so, if they can't bring the cheaper labour here. I don't believe there is either the will or the ability of governments to stop them, least of all Tory governments.
Just looking at the rather amusing "shoot to kill" Dan Hodges article. A few choice quotes:
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
It is amazing how Hodges' rabid Europhilia has clouded his judgement on the EU referendum to the extent of it being a complete waste of time to read his articles.
Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, I am shocked I tell you.
Dan has always had a better understanding how the Labour party operates than the Conservative party. Indeed when he strays into statements about non-Labour parties he makes big mistakes.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 11:56 am - 15 Dec 2012 "If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory..."
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I remember David (forgotten full username, lives in Dundee) giving honest feedback that they expected Yes to win narrowly in his city, which they did in the end. He never said it was anything like 70:30 either way. I canvassed in the Borders, and in a mixed area I think we were ahead something like 55:45 (villages were overwhelmingly No).
We are now seeing reports of 60%, 70%, even 80% for Leave in Northern towns and London boroughs. Are there really enough people in Hampstead to outweigh them?
Casino, will you do any canvassing? Would be good to get an idea of opinion in rural England. Perhaps they are less concerned by immigration, and hence more inclined to Remain than those living nearer large cities?
Comments
Of course most of the rancour was kicked off months back and those of us who said the Tories will regret this were laughed at. We'll see how things go on the 24th.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
You are right to be concerned. I dont believe the most hylerbolic claims so feel the likely hit is a necessary price, but many will think otherwise if they dislike the eu a little less, cannot or are willing to take the risk of such a hit, or require more certainty. But the eh is unpalatable and no guarantor of certainty economically.
Sterling fall of 10%
Rapid economic growth
Lower inflation
Lower interest rates
Now history rarely repeats exactly but a fall in the exchange rate almost always boosts economic growth and importantly rebalances the economy from wealth consumption to wealth creation.
Personally, as so eone who predicted a labour majority up until Feb 2015, and a plurality thereafter, I'm like a professional pundit in having no shame in being very wrong.
Personally I believe that people should think for themselves rather than do what some famous name tells them to do, whatever the issue.
1. Unconvinced by Farage. Possibly even hostile(Cameron's targetting)
2. Don't wan't to be seen as chauvinists (several little Englander references)
3. Are impressed by middle of the road 'experts' (choice of talking heads)
4. Don't like the scare stories. Prefer straight talking (Every speaker mentioned 'not perfect'
5. See themselves as middle of the road. (from the scripted talking heads)
I'm working backwards. After the focus groups they would have written a report which would lead to a brief which will have been answered by the bradcast and various other statements that we've seen over the last few days.
I was going to write specifically about the focus groups and their possible findings but 'Leave' ran the same broadcast twice and don't seem to be using research so it would be a bit too one sided
We should not panic though: Economies should go through cycles. Do not conflate cyclical growth-rates with the EU referendum: We have no test-data to analyse on what the impact of 'Out' will be (outwith samples from the 'Sixties and before). We can only judge upon what is best for our country.
:keep-calm-and-boo:
Cameron suddenly finds himself in the dubious company of Brown in the effect he has on me :-)
This is obviously only relevant to manufacturing and computer/phone-based services - you can't move the NHS or home help to Malaysia.
I think it really is 50/50 but even if REMAIN pulls it out the fire in the end we've still given the establishment in general and posh boy Cameron in particular, one hell of a fright (and probably ensured Cameron and Osborne are destroyed whatever the result)
Good day all.
Seemed to imply that Norway option would be worst of all possible worlds because of having no say over making the rules.
I wonder sometimes if you are less a socialist and more a gentlemanly capitalist who believes in a strong welfare state. A post-war Tory even.
I returned to the Conservative Party to stop eejits like yourself and TSE/DH/HB screwing-up our future. We are not planning to infight with you 'One-Nation' hysterics but to out-argue you: We will attempt to convince you that our roots lay with free-trade and commerce and that we will not make anyone subserviant to another.
We are probably closer to your victor [a few months ago] then with your vanquished career. Our goal is to save the party from chimeras and poncy-shoed lawyers. We are the party that will represent our nation - subjects, residents and visitors - and not some neo-colonial socialist elite. Be scared; for we are coming...!
On why LEAVE haven't got an Agency - who wants Dominic Cummings as a client?
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
The EU has no interaction with the UK pension, whereas Scotland/UK are fully entangled.
Cameron couldn't get tax credit cuts through so he doesn't have a cat in hell's of getting pension cuts through.
A simple question would suffice to all remain MPs
"Dear Tory/Labour/SNP MP,
Would you support a vote to cut your constituents' pensions in a Westminster vote?"
*standing shoulder to shoulder*
But no ship is unsinkable. The tragedy was not in the design of the ship, but in the weakness of the general laws relating to safety at sea.
There's a scene at the end of ANTR which always chokes me up. As Captain Rostron (who lived in Crosby) of the Carpathia surveys the pathetic flotsam floating by on the morning after the disaster, the wireless man comes on to the bridge with a message from the Californian, which has just arrived on the scene and is asking if there is anything they can do.
Rostron says: "Tell them... 'No. Nothing. Everything that was humanly possible has been done...'"
Then the titles roll, explaining the sacrifice was not in vain, that there are now lifeboats for all, 24-hour radio watch, and ice-patrols in the North Atlantic...
betting PostF1: in a fit of unoriginality, I've again backed Raikkonen to fail to be classified (4.33):
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/canada-pre-race-2016.html
Well, would you try to defend the Remain campaign? You break it, you own it...you pay for it.
But there was a boost across the economy from leaving the ERM with a rebalancing to export led growth as Britain moved from the trade deficits which had been continuous from the mid 1980s to trade surpluses from 1994 onwards:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj
As to the present interest rates will rise at some point, that will happen whatever the referendum result is.
The example I've give here before is buying coffee in Japan: I used to go to a shop where the staff would operate the machine to make my coffee, which would need a fair amount of cleaning and maintenance and a bit of time to operate. Now what happens is that the convenience store sell me a paper cup for 100 yen, a transaction that takes their guy literally 3 seconds, and I operate the machine myself. This is possible because someone somewhere is manufacturing the machine, all the various machine parts, and the little plastic capsules, that makes the whole "service" part maybe an order of magnitude less labour-intensive than it used to be.
I'm sure there's a huge amount of scope for this with medical technology, and a fair bit with home-help-type stuff.
I think Britain's a bit unusual in having a significant constituency that claims to support free movement of goods while being strongly opposed to free movement of labour. This position doesn't really make much sense, and in practice once they got what they wanted with labour I suspect the same people would start backtracking on free trade in goods, as we saw when the UK mainstream suddenly went protectionist over steel during the cost of basically a single news cycle.
In it's limited context I think it's fact, but I agree that research funding is skewed away from the non-Oxbridge universities.
I believe that process has been going on for some time, encouraged by non-technical politicians who can count just well enough to "evaluate" "progress". And, if I am correct, this makes it largely a trend encouraged by our own "sovereign" self governance. In the latter regard, we need to listen to our seasoned experts, encourage them to serve in government management, and actually take what they say seriously.
The case of Prof. Nutt springs to mind. He was fired, I believe, for saying what the politicos didn't want to hear.
We are now seeing reports of 60%, 70%, even 80% for Leave in Northern towns and London boroughs. Are there really enough people in Hampstead to outweigh them?
Casino, will you do any canvassing? Would be good to get an idea of opinion in rural England. Perhaps they are less concerned by immigration, and hence more inclined to Remain than those living nearer large cities?
But I'm not expecting any of that to happen any time soon - in fact I don't expect it *ever* under a Tory government, so even a start in that direction is unlikely before 2020, if then. Right now, in Britain as it is, I think that employers able to move to cheaper labour will do so, if they can't bring the cheaper labour here. I don't believe there is either the will or the ability of governments to stop them, least of all Tory governments.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 11:56 am - 15 Dec 2012
"If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory..."
"Well OF COURSE everything's sweet for Norway", says David Cameron, "they're a small country with loads of oil."