I think we need to be a bit careful with all this 'it's gonna be leave' hysteria. A few promising polls but no reason to start thinking it's all over. If the polls are level on polling day I expect a remain win.
There will almost certainly be a swing-back to REMAIN though by how much it's hard to say. REMAIN is not a "status quo" or risk free option (unlike say STAY was during SINDY) LEAVE needs to push that message during the final days.
I think it really is 50/50 but even if REMAIN pulls it out the fire in the end we've still given the establishment in general and posh boy Cameron in particular, one hell of a fright (and probably ensured Cameron and Osborne are destroyed whatever the result)
the same nonsense was said about the Scottish referendum
Well the Scottish referendum did destroy SLAB....
but not Cameron nor Osborne.
FWIW , I think this is going to be like 1992 .. People will go into the voting booth, hold their noses and vote remain.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
Or, put another way, a minimum two years of complete uncertainty as a Brexit deal is hammered out.
Compared to decades of complete uncertainty if we stay in as we unsuccessfully fight every new EU edict and move towards Ever Closer Union. Continual threats to leave and half hearted attempts to push the EU in 'our' direction whilst the continual Euro crisis drives the rest of the continent into federalism.
Not sure markets and investors will see it that way, they don't usually view the kind of uncertainty Brexit will cause in too favourable light. But let's hope you're right. We'll find out soon enough.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
There will be Labour constituencies that vote 70/30 Leave. But there'll be others (and SNP constituencies, and even some Tory constituencies) that vote just as heavily to Remain.
I am coming round to the view that from a 3:1 ratio of REMAIN vs LEAVE amongst Labour voters it is heading towards 3:2. A remarkable drop and almost certain victory for LEAVE. A mixture of anti-immigration, anti-Cameron and voter strikes (cannot be bothered). Turnout for Labour voters could be more than 10% lower than the Conservative voters.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I remember David (forgotten full username, lives in Dundee) giving honest feedback that they expected Yes to win narrowly in his city, which they did in the end. He never said it was anything like 70:30 either way. I canvassed in the Borders, and in a mixed area I think we were ahead something like 55:45 (villages were overwhelmingly No).
We are now seeing reports of 60%, 70%, even 80% for Leave in Northern towns and London boroughs. Are there really enough people in Hampstead to outweigh them?
Casino, will you do any canvassing? Would be good to get an idea of opinion in rural England. Perhaps they are less concerned by immigration, and hence more inclined to Remain than those living nearer large cities?
Large parts of rural England are the places most concerned about immigration.
There's a common misapprehension that rural areas are all middle class and affluent.
I think its now being revealed how working class and deprived many rural areas are compared with the 'stockbroker belt'.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
That is a very good point. There are too many negatives!
The last ten days should be interesting from a marketing point of view. The Professionals V The Amateurs. It's clear the rather shambolic early days of Remain have now been replaced by a much slicker operation. Their negative (and positive) targetting has become much sharper. Leave are bumbling along in the same rather shambolic way but the public seem to be liking it. It's easy to imagine the well oiled Remain machine taking the lead but its by no means certain
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I've tried to filter that out, really. But everything I hear, everything I see, everything that rumbles from my gut says Remain are going down....
Any thoughts on how your local LibDem voters are going to go ?
SW LibDems have always looked somewhat askance at their Party's EU love-in.... I'm sure it was partly a factor in their dreadful showing down here in May 2015. Those that have stayed around will still be heavily for Remain, but there are far fewer than there were, so not a defining feature of how the SW will vote. Which, from my experience, is strongly Leave.
Anecdote alert. I just asked my housemate (gay, early 30s) how he was voting in the referendum. He's originally from a fairly remote area which he left because there were a lot of small-minded people in his words. He's part of what might be called the precariat. He's torn on the referendum and not sure how he'll vote. He believes there's a lot of nonsense spouted about the EU in certain quarters (newspapers?) but he didn't know any good reasons for staying in. Saying that he's leaning to remain.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
That is a very good point. There are too many negatives!
The last ten days should be interesting from a marketing point of view. The Professionals V The Amateurs. It's clear the rather shambolic early days of Remain have now been replaced by a much slicker operation. Their negative (and positive) targetting has become much sharper. Leave are bumbling along in the same rather shambolic way but the public seem to be liking it. It's easy to imagine the well oiled Remain machine taking the lead but its by no means certain
Leave is a word of mouth hit. Remain is a massively hyped big budget turkey.
Just looking at the rather amusing "shoot to kill" Dan Hodges article. A few choice quotes:
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
It is amazing how Hodges' rabid Europhilia has clouded his judgement on the EU referendum to the extent of it being a complete waste of time to read his articles.
Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, I am shocked I tell you.
Dan has always had a better understanding how the Labour party operates than the Conservative party. Indeed when he strays into statements about non-Labour parties he makes big mistakes.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 11:56 am - 15 Dec 2012 "If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory..."
It's a very common issue - Sylvester in the Times is superb on Labour and truly awful on Tories.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
That is a very good point. There are too many negatives!
The last ten days should be interesting from a marketing point of view. The Professionals V The Amateurs. It's clear the rather shambolic early days of Remain have now been replaced by a much slicker operation. Their negative (and positive) targetting has become much sharper. Leave are bumbling along in the same rather shambolic way but the public seem to be liking it. It's easy to imagine the well oiled Remain machine taking the lead but its by no means certain
Is Dave trying to blackmail OAPs part of that well oiled machines strategy?
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
Activists are physically and emotionaly tired by this point in any campaign. Momentum on delivering and canvassing can drop off very rapidly if people scent defeat in the air. Had Remain been comfortably ahead in the polls, our activists would have been drifting off by now. The opposite is happening. I dont know how things amongst Remain activists? The Ed Milliband photo yesterday didnt look like a campaign firing on all cylinders.
Just looking at the rather amusing "shoot to kill" Dan Hodges article. A few choice quotes:
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
It is amazing how Hodges' rabid Europhilia has clouded his judgement on the EU referendum to the extent of it being a complete waste of time to read his articles.
Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, I am shocked I tell you.
Dan has always had a better understanding how the Labour party operates than the Conservative party. Indeed when he strays into statements about non-Labour parties he makes big mistakes.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 11:56 am - 15 Dec 2012 "If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory..."
And one of the reasons why UKIP got more than 6% was the wwc Labour voters who moved to them.
Like many metropolitan leftists Hodges has little understanding of people outside his comfort zone.
Now we all have a tendency to that but Hodges's comfort zone is perhaps a little more niche than that of most people.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
There will be Labour constituencies that vote 70/30 Leave. But there'll be others (and SNP constituencies, and even some Tory constituencies) that vote just as heavily to Remain.
That is indeed the problem. Mid Beds where I live might reasonably have been expected to vote 70/30 leave, however the Remain lot need the labour vote. If Sunderland declares anything like 70/30 Remain are toast.
Judge people by what they do, not say. Leave are certainly working hard in Luton. If they're doing little in rural Bedfordshire, as you say, they must feel they have rural Conservatives in the bag, and can focus on winning over urban Labour voters.
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
Christ on a bike. If Leave win, that will be because 50.01%+ of the population voted for them to win, it's pretty reasonable to expect them to then call the shots, you might not like it, but its what the population will have voted for.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I remember David (forgotten full username, lives in Dundee) giving honest feedback that they expected Yes to win narrowly in his city, which they did in the end. He never said it was anything like 70:30 either way. I canvassed in the Borders, and in a mixed area I think we were ahead something like 55:45 (villages were overwhelmingly No).
We are now seeing reports of 60%, 70%, even 80% for Leave in Northern towns and London boroughs. Are there really enough people in Hampstead to outweigh them?
Casino, will you do any canvassing? Would be good to get an idea of opinion in rural England. Perhaps they are less concerned by immigration, and hence more inclined to Remain than those living nearer large cities?
I am leafleting from a stall in Fleet next weekend, and attending a Gove rally on Friday evening in Aldershot. I will let you know.
All I can tell you is that it's rather mixed around here (Odiham) but I live in one of the wealthiest parts of the UK. I think the retired and older voters, plus those on the ex-local authority estates, will be for Leave. The smaller private estates, under 40s, and commuters to London, will break for Remain.
On the other hand, Union Jacks are everywhere (almost certainly for the Queen's 90th birthday street party we're having today) but could be mood music as well.
Mr. Roger, that point about research was made when people raised the Nigel Farage's Little England line as something that was going to piss the electorate off.
Mind you, finding a potential area to work on (Farage being disliked by some) and applying the line to exploit it are two different things.
Again they're not aiming at people who will be pissed off by it or they wouldn't be doing it. Lynton Crosby's famous dog whistles are supposed to target one group while not alienating another but this campaign is far too polarised and one dimentional for that. As it happens 'Little Englanders' has an acceptable meaning as a chauvinist. Very few leaning to Remain would think it applied to them
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
With a majority of 7? I'm sure the Majorites on the backbenches will enjoy themselves.
The Majorites? Plural???
I can't see all the Remainian Tories gladly falling behind a leave government. Ken Clarke, Stephen Dorrell plus one or two others and the majority is gone.
But there are 10+ Lab MPs for LEAVE and then the NI unionist party.
Just looking at the rather amusing "shoot to kill" Dan Hodges article. A few choice quotes:
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
It is amazing how Hodges' rabid Europhilia has clouded his judgement on the EU referendum to the extent of it being a complete waste of time to read his articles.
Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, I am shocked I tell you.
Dan has always had a better understanding how the Labour party operates than the Conservative party. Indeed when he strays into statements about non-Labour parties he makes big mistakes.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 11:56 am - 15 Dec 2012 "If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory..."
He didn't wear the mask, he wasn't naked, and nor did he sing Land of Hope and Glory.
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
I saw a clip on Sky that he's threatening to cut the Defence/NHS budgets too - and basically says that if we don't vote Remain, his entire manifesto can't be delivered.
Talk about going all in. If I wasn't seeing this with my own eyes - I wouldn't believe it.
It's completely true: what you voted for, what you used to cheer to the rafters is predicated on high levels of immigration and EU membership. You voted for policies designed to clear the deficit by 2020. If that is to happen it requires a certain level of growth, plus tax rises and spending cuts. If growth stalls as a result of Brexit - and even most Leavers concede it will - then to achieve what you voted for there will have to be further cuts and/or tax rises.
No we didn't we voted to not have a neomarxist Wonk and the Krankies (Salmond and Sturgeon) anywhere the leavers of power.
Cameron has been daft enough to think that people actually voted for him.
Plato made absolutely clear that she completely endorsed government policy. She used to be a big fan of everything it did. If you do not support moving to a surplus by 2020, fair enough.
Excuse me. Do not put words in my mouth or use me as a pawn in your proxy war.
I'm not. I am making a statement of fact. You are repudiating policies and strategies that just a few months ago you enthusiastically endorsed - such as Osborne's deficit reduction plan.
Just stop. Make your own case - and leave me out of it.
I am making the case that many Tory Leave supporters are hypocrites. You are helping me to make my case by pretending to be shocked by policies that just a few months ago you wholeheartedly supported.
I love how they are pitching themselves as the champions of the "downtrodden" working class: the very same people they have spent the last 6 years deriding as feckless scroungers and cheering on cuts in their benefits. And their sudden fetish for non-EU migration despite enthusiastically backing the immigration cap and restrictions on spousal visas introduced in the last parliament
Yep!
The downtrodden working class are the ones paying for the benefits while the recipients laze in bed for 7 days or five days if they are working a couple of days a week to max out on tax credits
A large chunk of tax credits go to people working full-time on minimum wage but that didn't stop them being feckless layabouts.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I remember David (forgotten full username, lives in Dundee) giving honest feedback that they expected Yes to win narrowly in his city, which they did in the end. He never said it was anything like 70:30 either way. I canvassed in the Borders, and in a mixed area I think we were ahead something like 55:45 (villages were overwhelmingly No).
We are now seeing reports of 60%, 70%, even 80% for Leave in Northern towns and London boroughs. Are there really enough people in Hampstead to outweigh them?
Casino, will you do any canvassing? Would be good to get an idea of opinion in rural England. Perhaps they are less concerned by immigration, and hence more inclined to Remain than those living nearer large cities?
Large parts of rural England are the places most concerned about immigration.
There's a common misapprehension that rural areas are all middle class and affluent.
I think its now being revealed how working class and deprived many rural areas are compared with the 'stockbroker belt'.
Absolutely. Consider places like Boston in Lincolnshire - rural but low wages economy. Very small workforce, impacted by 15% of population now being EU migrants, exerting downward pressure on wages, but upward pressure on limited housing market. There are plenty of places like this - I work in a very similar area. It will vote to leave.
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
Christ on a bike. If Leave win, that will be because 50.01%+ of the population voted for them to win, it's pretty reasonable to expect them to then call the shots, you might not like it, but its what the population will have voted for.
Peston interviewing Julian Assange live via tv link and first question is to ask his view on Brexit shock:
So many journalists are really lazy - and resort of old clap lines again and again like Phil Space. I lost patience with the Times over this and now complain whenever I detect it.
Just looking at the rather amusing "shoot to kill" Dan Hodges article. A few choice quotes:
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
It is amazing how Hodges' rabid Europhilia has clouded his judgement on the EU referendum to the extent of it being a complete waste of time to read his articles.
Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, I am shocked I tell you.
Dan has always had a better understanding how the Labour party operates than the Conservative party. Indeed when he strays into statements about non-Labour parties he makes big mistakes.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 11:56 am - 15 Dec 2012 "If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory..."
Yes I understand, he is also obsessed enough about increasing immigration that he co-founded the main pro-immigration open borders pressure group, so him being a euro-frother is not exactly a shock
This spells out the biggest mistakes of the REMAIN campaign. Cameron and Osborne in the top 3.. Cameron & Osborne = 500 media appearances and All Labour appearances under 100.
"George" said Field Marshal Cameron, "Sir?" "What's the campaign report this Sunday morning?" George squinted through his field binoculars and took in the scene.
It was carnage. Like nothing George, had seen before and the casualties were piling up. Truth was first to cop it of course - shot through the heart and George knew he was partly to blame, and the latest reports were getting more troubling.
BBC signals had picked up a message from the Foreign Legion. Generals Merkel and Hollande didn't know what to do now. True Brigadier Juncker was working on a big bazooka with Colonels Tusk and Schulz which they called project "vow", but as yet it needed 27 triggers to fire it, and nobody knew if it would go off in their face.
But as he scanned the battlefield further there were causes for optimism. In the North West the Irish Guards were holding up well, stiffened by the visit of old Field Marshals Grey and Orange in the week. The Sturgeon Highlanders were unbeatable at the northern end of the field resplendent in their salmon kilts and cerise Izzard berets. God I wish I had more of them, thought George ruefully, for though good they were few in number. The the West though reports were coming in that the Welsh guards were complaining about their steel weapons and we're going over to the opposition.
But it was the Left flank which bothered George the most. This was the centrepiece of the defence and it was in trouble. General Corbyn was there on the far left of the field in his trademark tin foil hat, so beloved of many of his praetorian guard, but he was firing intermittently and randomly at God knows what. Most of his able lieutenants seem to be spending time looking at plans and sharpening daggers. Such was the confusion the whole left flank was in danger of crumbling, something the Guardianista intelligence agency had assured George just was not possible. That said George knew it was the same agency that had insisted General Corbyn's troops be fed on fair trade mung bean and organic celeriac fritters prepared by Polish chefs. Reports were flooding in of troop mutinies demanding their pie and mash back like General Farage's foot soldiers were getting.
The gunsmoke cleared a little and there it was. George just caught a glimpse of General Merkel out of the side of his eye, for she had seen it too. There she was Picklhaube slightly askew now, hand held over open mouth aghast. She was been warned about this sight but had not believed it could ever be true. But there it was heading for George.
George saw it too. God they it was closer that he had expected and bigger than anyone thought possible. Badly led, shot at by experts, outrageous crap flung at them, but they were still in the fight, this close to the end, somehow against all odds: the British electorate.
There they were in blue, red, purple, even bits of yellow and green shouting awful cries like "Sod you all!", some were brandishing scary vacuum cleaner accessories and screaming a blood curdling "cobblers".George swallowed. He could've led the charge at their head. A glorious cavalry dash into the Pantheon of greatness of his supporters it would've been, but he had chosen another course with Field Marshal Cameron.
"George!", the urgency in the voice snapped George from his reverie "the report! Have we fired everything". "Yes Field Marshal Cameron". " The big American gun?". "Yes sir". "What happened?" "It backfired, sir". "The Four horsemen of The Apocalypse?" "Turned into burgers in the field kitchen, sir". "That's scandalous. The wardrobe monster?" "Turns out he's mythical, sir".The Fleld Marshal's cheeks flushed a little "Mythical!? But at Eton we used to..... " His voice trailed off.
"So it's down to the regimental Padre George". "Welby sir?". "Yes, Welby, good man Welby, he's praying for us".
Yes thought George his sinews now stiffened a little, it was down to the Padre. So they were going to win after all. Weren't they?
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
eee.. how many "MILLIONS" exactly did he trouser? or is it just another load of hyperbolic bullshit.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
I can't really agree. There are frequently hugely inneffective ad campaigns, often because the advertising sells the advertising not the product.
And that goes back to the product & client - if the product has nothing to say neither can the advertising.
Again I can't entirely agree. I think a lot is due to a culture within advertising of 'getting the advert talked about' etc. If this happens, but the product doesn't sell, it's conveniently blamed on the product. It's actually the product that should be talked about, not the advert, and one could argue the two are inversely proportional.
Then that's the client's fault for buying the ad.
It's the buyer's fault for buying a shit car too, but that doesn't condone it being a shit car.
Why LEAVE have chosen to do everything in-house is a mystery.
I suspect firstly because of cost. But, more importantly, I suspect they don't trust the advertising industry not to leak their strategy to the Remain side.
Lol - now the admen are part of the conspiracy? The list of evil plotters gets bigger by the day.
No conspiracy - just a realistic expectation that an overwhelming majority of advertising employees support Remain (young, metropolitan, wealthier than average) and that one individual within what would be a relatively large team would probably leak it.
That's the way the world works (sadly). I'm sure you could limit it to a "need to know" basis with a firewalled team, etc, but why take the risk?
Your description of the ad lads did lead me to wonder if part of the problem the ads are a bit dull is they are crafted by people who have no experience of the other half of society. If they have little cultural affinity they must struggle to hit the right notes.
And yet by some miracle they manage to sell washing powder, baked beans & tampons.
If there is a problem with the advertising it is usually a problem with the brief and/or product.
REMAIN's problem us the product they are selling is "Not LEAVE".
That is a very good point. There are too many negatives!
The last ten days should be interesting from a marketing point of view. The Professionals V The Amateurs. It's clear the rather shambolic early days of Remain have now been replaced by a much slicker operation. Their negative (and positive) targetting has become much sharper. Leave are bumbling along in the same rather shambolic way but the public seem to be liking it. It's easy to imagine the well oiled Remain machine taking the lead but its by no means certain
Roger we've seen the Remain side try and take the debare back into the realm of the political argument by using incendiary phrases like "little England" and trying to associate the campaign to Nigel, now they've moved on to turning their campaign to stay in the EU into the "Stop Boris from becoming PM" campaign. The professional politicians will undoubtedly win in a political fight, that is 100% true, but every time the discussion moves on to the issues and Leave stick to the messages of immigration, open trading and "taking back control" they win people over. Remain are treating this like a political bun fight ad using mud slinging to try and win it. It feels like a different race to me than a normal political fight like the general election or the mayoral election. People want to know about the real issues and Leave are the only side talking about them while the Remain side have spent their time talking about some of the unsavoury leave characters and promising economic doom if we vote to leave.
In this campaign, I'm not sure having the professional or at least the professional political approach is necessarily going to win it for them.
Oops. My Facebook feed just exploded in anger. Apparently the Archers just had one of the characters going on about how bad things would be if we left the EU. :-)
I suspect the writers may not understand their audience very well.
Dan Hodges proposing assassination of Boris Johnson??!! Doesn't that count as hate speech, incitement to murder etc etc - it would if it was on the other foot.
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
"In her first newspaper article since entering Downing Street in 2010, Mrs Cameron says she ‘dreads’ the prospect of a Brexit."
Hmm...if this really is her first newspaper article since Cameron became PM (and I assume it must be), I think it is safe to assume that Remain are very worried.
This spells out the biggest mistakes of the REMAIN campaign. Cameron and Osborne in the top 3.. Cameron & Osborne = 500 media appearances and All Labour appearances under 100.
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
eee.. how many "MILLIONS" exactly did he trouser? or is it just another load of hyperbolic bullshit.
So Vardy and Kane scored 49 Premiership goals last season.
Vardy didn't play and Kane's key stats were:
◾Harry Kane took six corners in the game, only one fewer than he managed in his 38 Premier League games in 2015-16. ◾Kane did not have a single touch in the opposition box against Russia.
Cameron has gone mad, stark staring mad. I've just read his rant in the Telegraph. Vote Remain or your bus passes free TV licences and the triple pension lock gets it.
Naked blackmail - and naked Blackmail of a generation who sacrificed so much and gave up loved ones and so much material comfort to win a world war.
And he thinks it will help.He might as well have called our pensioners "Bastards" (cf ~Major)
What an steaming idiot.
I saw a clip on Sky that he's threatening to cut the Defence/NHS budgets too - and basically says that if we don't vote Remain, his entire manifesto can't be delivered.
Talk about going all in. If I wasn't seeing this with my own eyes - I wouldn't believe it.
It's completely true: what you voted for, what you used to cheer to the rafters is predicated on high levels of immigration and EU membership. You voted for policies designed to clear the deficit by 2020. If that is to happen it requires a certain level of growth, plus tax rises and spending cuts. If growth stalls as a result of Brexit - and even most Leavers concede it will - then to achieve what you voted for there will have to be further cuts and/or tax rises.
No we didn't we voted to not have a neomarxist Wonk and the Krankies (Salmond and Sturgeon) anywhere the leavers of power.
Cameron has been daft enough to think that people actually voted for him.
Plato made absolutely clear that she completely endorsed government policy. She used to be a big fan of everything it did. If you do not support moving to a surplus by 2020, fair enough.
Excuse me. Do not put words in my mouth or use me as a pawn in your proxy war.
I'm not. I am making a statement of fact. You are repudiating policies and strategies that just a few months ago you enthusiastically endorsed - such as Osborne's deficit reduction plan.
Just stop. Make your own case - and leave me out of it.
I am making the case that many Tory Leave supporters are hypocrites. You are helping me to make my case by pretending to be shocked by policies that just a few months ago you wholeheartedly supported.
I love how they are pitching themselves as the champions of the "downtrodden" working class: the very same people they have spent the last 6 years deriding as feckless scroungers and cheering on cuts in their benefits. And their sudden fetish for non-EU migration despite enthusiastically backing the immigration cap and restrictions on spousal visas introduced in the last parliament
Yep!
The downtrodden working class are the ones paying for the benefits while the recipients laze in bed for 7 days or five days if they are working a couple of days a week to max out on tax credits
A large chunk of tax credits go to people working full-time on minimum wage but that didn't stop them being feckless layabouts.
What will happen to the economy in the short (less than 2 years) and medium term if Brecit happens? How low will GBP fall? How many points off GDP will be taken off? Will inflation rise significantly as well as interest rates? Serious answers please as like a lot of people in the country, I am concerned.
Nothing at all. There may be a momentary drop in the pound but it will recover rapidly as people realise that actually for 2 years nothing changes.
This is not any sort of Leave policy or desire. It is just a fact of the Article 50 process where the UK remains a member of the EU until the negotiations are completed.
So for 2 years we will still be a member no matter what we voted for and whether we like it or not.
This in itself will bring stability to the process as there are no sudden changes.
Or, put another way, a minimum two years of complete uncertainty as a Brexit deal is hammered out.
Compared to decades of complete uncertainty if we stay in as we unsuccessfully fight every new EU edict and move towards Ever Closer Union. Continual threats to leave and half hearted attempts to push the EU in 'our' direction whilst the continual Euro crisis drives the rest of the continent into federalism.
This spells out the biggest mistakes of the REMAIN campaign. Cameron and Osborne in the top 3.. Cameron & Osborne = 500 media appearances and All Labour appearances under 100.
Mr. Observer, the polls are very close. The time has not yet come to abandon all hope.
I am not abandoning anything. I have always thought Leave will win. They have the best and most accessible line. They won't deliver on it, though.
Apparently I do need to keep reminding people that this isn't an election, so Leave won't be running the country if they win and hence won't be in a position to deliver or otherwise.
Yes they will. Leave Tories will be running the government.
No, they won't. There aren't enough of them senior enough to run the government. Only two of them, in fact, are senior enough - one of those had ruled out being PM and the other won't win the leadership.
They'll become senior enough, while other Tory Leavers will join the Cabinet. We'll have a Leave government.
Christ on a bike. If Leave win, that will be because 50.01%+ of the population voted for them to win, it's pretty reasonable to expect them to then call the shots, you might not like it, but its what the population will have voted for.
Exactly. I do want the Leave wing of the Tories to form the government if Brexit wins. Maybe that is what Corbyn wants too !
Oops. My Facebook feed just exploded in anger. Apparently the Archers just had one of the characters going on about how bad things would be if we left the EU. :-)
I suspect the writers may not understand their audience very well.
"George" said Field Marshal Cameron, "Sir?" "What's the campaign report this Sunday morning?" George squinted through his field binoculars and took in the scene.
It was carnage. Like nothing George, had seen before and the casualties were piling up. Truth was first to cop it of course - shot through the heart and George knew he was partly to blame, and the latest reports were getting more troubling.
.....
"So it's down to the regimental Padre George". "Welby sir?". "Yes, Welby, good man Welby, he's praying for us".
Yes thought George his sinews now stiffened a little, it was down to the Padre. So they were going to win after all. Weren't they?
Oops. My Facebook feed just exploded in anger. Apparently the Archers just had one of the characters going on about how bad things would be if we left the EU. :-)
I suspect the writers may not understand their audience very well.
Their audience are ABs.....
My mum's listening to it right now - she's voting Leave.
Oops. My Facebook feed just exploded in anger. Apparently the Archers just had one of the characters going on about how bad things would be if we left the EU. :-)
I suspect the writers may not understand their audience very well.
The problem for Remain is basically Labour. I think they went into the campaign thinking (and probably reassured by leading Labour politicians) that the key to the vote was simply keeping enough Tory voters onside. They simply hadn't realised how divorced from their voters the Labour party has become. Despite the obvious warning signs from Scotland, even the election slightly mislead them because there was still enough Red rosette/donkey voting going on. However in this referendum there is no "Labour" on the ballot paper. So the tribal element has disappeared.
But how can Remain counter it? They can't counter it with Tory politicians because it will just drive them further away. There's no point is using most Labour politicians because their voters won't listen to them. Either they've got to find some Labour politicians still with the power to move votes (can G Brown do that???) or the only tactic they've got is to scare the voters with the prospect of a Boris/Gove/IDS/Farage government. But Tories trying to scare voters with the prospect of a Tory Government is a difficult sell.
"George" said Field Marshal Cameron, "Sir?" "What's the campaign report this Sunday morning?" George squinted through his field binoculars and took in the scene.
It was carnage. Like nothing George, had seen before and the casualties were piling up. Truth was first to cop it of course - shot through the heart and George knew he was partly to blame, and the latest reports were getting more troubling.
.....
"So it's down to the regimental Padre George". "Welby sir?". "Yes, Welby, good man Welby, he's praying for us".
Yes thought George his sinews now stiffened a little, it was down to the Padre. So they were going to win after all. Weren't they?
Just one word - brilliant!
Thanks. I felt we needed lightening up a tad after recent weeks. We will all have to get on together on the 24th!
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
eee.. how many "MILLIONS" exactly did he trouser? or is it just another load of hyperbolic bullshit.
Apparently £2.7 million since 2001.
FOR WHAT ??? is it a farming subsidy and if so I doubt he made much or any profit, if he's in dairy, he will be losing money most likely.. Trousering money is misleading, if the net result is little or no profit.. Its a typical Daily Mail headline We need to asses the outcome before casting aspersions.,..
He's likely to have made far more money out of land value in the last 15 yrs.
This spells out the biggest mistakes of the REMAIN campaign. Cameron and Osborne in the top 3.. Cameron & Osborne = 500 media appearances and All Labour appearances under 100.
A massive wasted opportunity for Labour to front the REMAIN messages to the largest potential group of REMAIN voters. Madness - but good for LEAVE. Mrs Duffy voters have been neglected.
Oops. My Facebook feed just exploded in anger. Apparently the Archers just had one of the characters going on about how bad things would be if we left the EU. :-)
I suspect the writers may not understand their audience very well.
Their audience are ABs.....
I was just amused that out of nowhere I suddenly started getting all these FB messages pop up furious at the programme. It is the first time I have seen something like that happen on FB outside of a natural disaster or attack scenario.
I know I should apparently be annoyed but I really can't be as I found it funny to see people who I have never seen a single political post from get all hot and bothered over the Archers. It seems quintessentially English.
"George saw it too. God they it was closer that he had expected and bigger than anyone thought possible. Badly led, shot at by experts, outrageous crap flung at them, but they were still in the fight, this close to the end, somehow against all odds: the British electorate.
So Vardy and Kane scored 49 Premiership goals last season.
Vardy didn't play and Kane's key stats were:
◾Harry Kane took six corners in the game, only one fewer than he managed in his 38 Premier League games in 2015-16. ◾Kane did not have a single touch in the opposition box against Russia.
Hmmm .....
Roy is a terrible manager but a master at lowering expectations. That's how he has been in the job so long despite failure.
The problem last night was the conservative substitutions. If Vardy was on at the 60 minute mark for the brain dead Sterling we would have comfortably won that game IMO. Roy has got away with it though, there wasn't much criticism last night about this. Instead it was unlucky old England blah blah.
So Vardy and Kane scored 49 Premiership goals last season. Vardy didn't play and Kane's key stats were: ◾Harry Kane took six corners in the game, only one fewer than he managed in his 38 Premier League games in 2015-16. ◾Kane did not have a single touch in the opposition box against Russia. Hmmm .....
Playing players out of position when subs are available is first sign of madness in a Manager.
"George" said Field Marshal Cameron, "Sir?" "What's the campaign report this Sunday morning?" George squinted through his field binoculars and took in the scene.
It was carnage. Like nothing George, had seen before and the casualties were piling up. Truth was first to cop it of course - shot through the heart and George knew he was partly to blame, and the latest reports were getting more troubling.
.....
"So it's down to the regimental Padre George". "Welby sir?". "Yes, Welby, good man Welby, he's praying for us".
Yes thought George his sinews now stiffened a little, it was down to the Padre. So they were going to win after all. Weren't they?
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
eee.. how many "MILLIONS" exactly did he trouser? or is it just another load of hyperbolic bullshit.
Apparently £2.7 million since 2001.
FOR WHAT ??? is it a farming subsidy and if so I doubt he made much or any profit, if he's in dairy, he will be losing money most likely.. Trousering money is misleading, if the net result is little or no profit.. Its a typical Daily Mail headline We need to asses the outcome before casting aspersions.,..
He's likely to have made far more money out of land value in the last 15 yrs.
What has profit got to do with it? The fact is he is a large landowner getting massive subsidies from the EU. Is your Eurofanaticism that extreme that you are actually defending the CAP paying taxpayers money to millionaire businessmen?
At least you have stopped trying to claim t is all a mean lie.
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
"In her first newspaper article since entering Downing Street in 2010, Mrs Cameron says she ‘dreads’ the prospect of a Brexit."
Hmm...if this really is her first newspaper article since Cameron became PM (and I assume it must be), I think it is safe to assume that Remain are very worried.
Just looking at the rather amusing "shoot to kill" Dan Hodges article. A few choice quotes:
The first serious act of aggression was launched two weeks ago when Johnson and Gove co-authored a letter accusing the Prime Minister of being ‘corrosive of public trust’ over immigration.
I guess all the attacks on Boris and Gove before that weren't "serious"?
None of that has [the attacks on Boris] anything to do with a Machiavellian scheme from No 10 or No 11,’ says a Cabinet Minister. ‘Boris is personally rude, misogynistic, disruptive in meetings, and makes everything about him. He is not at all a team player, and is actually a complete vacuum when it comes to belief, conviction or moral compass. He has no sense of duty, no sense of loyalty and no sense of service.’
I like the focus on policies and what is the best for the UK in the long term. That's what's important, right folks?
[the now] ceaseless wave of attacks on the Prime Minister’s integrity. ‘Cameron called for honesty then told five outright lies in 30 minutes,’ said an article posted on the Vote Leave website following his clash with Farage on Tuesday.
I guess he should be allowed to allowed to say what he likes because he's a 'pretty straight sort of guy', right?
By trying to win the referendum in a way that gives him the best opportunity of putting his party back together, the Prime Minister risks losing the contest.
It is amazing how Hodges' rabid Europhilia has clouded his judgement on the EU referendum to the extent of it being a complete waste of time to read his articles.
Dan "Migration Matters Trust" Hodges, I am shocked I tell you.
Dan has always had a better understanding how the Labour party operates than the Conservative party. Indeed when he strays into statements about non-Labour parties he makes big mistakes.
(((Dan Hodges))) Verified account @DPJHodges 11:56 am - 15 Dec 2012 "If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory..."
He didn't wear the mask, he wasn't naked, and nor did he sing Land of Hope and Glory.
Oops. My Facebook feed just exploded in anger. Apparently the Archers just had one of the characters going on about how bad things would be if we left the EU. :-)
I suspect the writers may not understand their audience very well.
Their audience are ABs.....
I was just amused that out of nowhere I suddenly started getting all these FB messages pop up furious at the programme. It is the first time I have seen something like that happen on FB outside of a natural disaster or attack scenario.
I know I should apparently be annoyed but I really can't be as I found it funny to see people who I have never seen a single political post from get all hot and bothered over the Archers. It seems quintessentially English.
If Remain has lost The Archers voters.... Quick, check - are the Ravens still at the Tower?
Dan Hodges proposing assassination of Boris Johnson??!! Doesn't that count as hate speech, incitement to murder etc etc - it would if it was on the other foot.
He does not. I think anyone sane can understand the meaning of his metaphor.
Just like the line "I don't want to stab Cameron in the back, I want to stab him in the front so I can see his eyes" was not a threat to murder.
I remember David (forgotten full username, lives in Dundee) giving honest feedback that they expected Yes to win narrowly in his city, which they did in the end.
Yes won 57-43 in Dundee. If that's winning narrowly..
"George" said Field Marshal Cameron, "Sir?" "What's the campaign report this Sunday morning?" George squinted through his field binoculars and took in the scene.
It was carnage. Like nothing George, had seen before and the casualties were piling up. Truth was first to cop it of course - shot through the heart and George knew he was partly to blame, and the latest reports were getting more troubling.
.....
"So it's down to the regimental Padre George". "Welby sir?". "Yes, Welby, good man Welby, he's praying for us".
Yes thought George his sinews now stiffened a little, it was down to the Padre. So they were going to win after all. Weren't they?
Just one word - brilliant!
Another one: excellent! Thanks, you made me laugh out loud.
I've decided that the pollsters haven't really got a clue how to poll this referendum. They are changing their methodology with each poll, making it impossible to track like for like changes poll to poll. Instead, they are herding around TCTC. The run up to May 2015 writ large again.
Instead, I'm relying on informed anecdote. One northern Labour MP saying that in some places the vote is running 70:30 to Leave is worth a dozen 50:50 polls. City-centre stalls with Leave greatly enthused and handing out leaflets to willing recipients, contrasted with Remain trying to sell the benefits of scrofula. Worth another dozen polls. Tories apparently nip and tuck, Remain:Leave - where??? The AB's coming to Remain's aid. Really??? That doesn't remotely jive with my personal anecdotes. Where is the urban Remain groundswell to counter the Shire Leavers?
So guys, keep those anecdotes coming. There's a real world out that the pollsters aren't reaching. Again.
I suspect you have a point. One word of caution, though: you sound very like some of the Yes people during the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I remember David (forgotten full username, lives in Dundee) giving honest feedback that they expected Yes to win narrowly in his city, which they did in the end. He never said it was anything like 70:30 either way. I canvassed in the Borders, and in a mixed area I think we were ahead something like 55:45 (villages were overwhelmingly No).
We are now seeing reports of 60%, 70%, even 80% for Leave in Northern towns and London boroughs. Are there really enough people in Hampstead to outweigh them?
Casino, will you do any canvassing? Would be good to get an idea of opinion in rural England. Perhaps they are less concerned by immigration, and hence more inclined to Remain than those living nearer large cities?
We always knew we were behind in Dundee and we're going to lose but it was important that we maximised the Unionist vote and lost by as little as possible. That is the key difference between a referendum and an election. There are no safe seats. A vote anywhere is worth the same as a vote everywhere.
That is why I am so surprised that Scotland is pretty much not taking part in this campaign. It is as strong (apparently) for Remain as London but there seems almost no effort to get out the voters, harvest the postal votes etc. If Scotland has a low turnout as I expect remain will have missed an important trick.
For there to be balance on the BBC surely there has to be another character on there who wants to Leave? No doubt this other character will be a bit sinister and racist but they've got to throw us a bone haven't they..
Anyone want to pretend that the BBC isnt in favour of remain now?
Boris should offer to make a guest appearance on The Archers. In the name of balance. Publicity would be huge, either way. "Beeb refuses offer to give balanced Referendum view on Archers"....
So Vardy and Kane scored 49 Premiership goals last season. Vardy didn't play and Kane's key stats were: ◾Harry Kane took six corners in the game, only one fewer than he managed in his 38 Premier League games in 2015-16. ◾Kane did not have a single touch in the opposition box against Russia. Hmmm .....
Playing players out of position when subs are available is first sign of madness in a Manager.
The quality of British management is a frequent remark on this site in relation to the economy. It certainly applies to football, at least in the case of England.
Activists are physically and emotionaly tired by this point in any campaign. Momentum on delivering and canvassing can drop off very rapidly if people scent defeat in the air. Had Remain been comfortably ahead in the polls, our activists would have been drifting off by now. The opposite is happening. I dont know how things amongst Remain activists? The Ed Milliband photo yesterday didnt look like a campaign firing on all cylinders.
That is an interesting point. My local MP was out campaigning/canvassing in the village High Street yesterday, accompanied by one chap handing out leaflets. Just one person and no stall, no banners, no signs. Was that because he felt the place was already so pro-remain that he didn't need to do much and was just going through the motions or was it because the local Conservative Party could not get anyone else to support him?
"George" said Field Marshal Cameron, "Sir?" "What's the campaign report this Sunday morning?" George squinted through his field binoculars and took in the scene.
It was carnage. Like nothing George, had seen before and the casualties were piling up. Truth was first to cop it of course - shot through the heart and George knew he was partly to blame, and the latest reports were getting more troubling.
.....
"So it's down to the regimental Padre George". "Welby sir?". "Yes, Welby, good man Welby, he's praying for us".
Yes thought George his sinews now stiffened a little, it was down to the Padre. So they were going to win after all. Weren't they?
Just one word - brilliant!
Thanks. I felt we needed lightening up a tad after recent weeks. We will all have to get on together on the 24th!
Activists are physically and emotionaly tired by this point in any campaign. Momentum on delivering and canvassing can drop off very rapidly if people scent defeat in the air. Had Remain been comfortably ahead in the polls, our activists would have been drifting off by now. The opposite is happening. I dont know how things amongst Remain activists? The Ed Milliband photo yesterday didnt look like a campaign firing on all cylinders.
Can only speak for my part of inner London - Remain working hard here.
Dave looked like a defeated man on Marr today. I see Sam Cam wrote an article in the MoS asking voters to back Remain. No mention of her father trousering millions from the EU. No major vested interest there....
"In her first newspaper article since entering Downing Street in 2010, Mrs Cameron says she ‘dreads’ the prospect of a Brexit."
Hmm...if this really is her first newspaper article since Cameron became PM (and I assume it must be), I think it is safe to assume that Remain are very worried.
Allowing comments on that article was... brave.
Golly, and they've nailed it too. Desperate and stupid by Number 10. Most of us think she's nice and pretty, but she's totally the wrong person to wheel out given her well known wealth.
81% say some risk 26% say great risk 47% of Remainers did not think leaving was a great risk 67% of Labour voters did not think leaving was a great risk
Those numbers plus this morning's YG show that those likeliest to perceive great risk and be more susceptible to calls to expertise are Lib Dems, Greens and young people.
More mature people (50+) are least susceptible to 'experts' in this campaign.
Janan Ganesh is not sounding quite so cocky this morning which is interesting. On another note, I see there has been some rather unfortunate scheduling in the Euros. England now travel to Lens to play Wales on Thursday. Unfortunately, due to a lack of hotels in Lens, most fans will be staying in nearby Lille which is where Russia play Slovakia on Wednesday afternoon. It's odd that the French chose to host games in Lens (a big renovation of the stadium was needed) rather than Nantes.
81% say some risk 26% say great risk 47% of Remainers did not think leaving was a great risk 67% of Labour voters did not think leaving was a great risk
Those numbers plus this morning's YG show that those likeliest to perceive great risk and be more susceptible to calls to expertise are Lib Dems, Greens and young people.
More mature people (50+) are least susceptible to 'experts' in this campaign.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice....
These numbers don't make logical sense.
26% think Leaving is a great risk. 53% of Leavers think leaving is a great risk.
Activists are physically and emotionaly tired by this point in any campaign. Momentum on delivering and canvassing can drop off very rapidly if people scent defeat in the air. Had Remain been comfortably ahead in the polls, our activists would have been drifting off by now. The opposite is happening. I dont know how things amongst Remain activists? The Ed Milliband photo yesterday didnt look like a campaign firing on all cylinders.
That is an interesting point. My local MP was out campaigning/canvassing in the village High Street yesterday, accompanied by one chap handing out leaflets. Just one person and no stall, no banners, no signs. Was that because he felt the place was already so pro-remain that he didn't need to do much and was just going through the motions or was it because the local Conservative Party could not get anyone else to support him?
Just to be clear, was your MP standing for REMAIN?
This spells out the biggest mistakes of the REMAIN campaign. Cameron and Osborne in the top 3.. Cameron & Osborne = 500 media appearances and All Labour appearances under 100.
A massive wasted opportunity for Labour to front the REMAIN messages to the largest potential group of REMAIN voters. Madness - but good for LEAVE. Mrs Duffy voters have been neglected.
Labour have enough worries with Corbyn without seriously pissing off the third of their voters that want to Leave. If a lot of (metropolitan) Labour MPs come out banging the drum for Remain on the TV the WWC will sign up for UKIP faster than you can say "Farage".
HurstLama that resonates. Andrew Selous, our MP, was stood on his own at the Railway station in the rain handing out ConservativeIN leaflets. On his own! There really is very little support for Remain amongst Conservative activists (doubtless not a suprise to anyone!) I do really hope careerist MPs who backed Remain despite everything they have previously said about the EU (Lancaster, Mak, Dineage et al) get their just deserts. The Tory party has not really gone in for deselections before but who can tell?
81% say some risk 26% say great risk 47% of Remainers did not think leaving was a great risk 67% of Labour voters did not think leaving was a great risk
Those numbers plus this morning's YG show that those likeliest to perceive great risk and be more susceptible to calls to expertise are Lib Dems, Greens and young people.
More mature people (50+) are least susceptible to 'experts' in this campaign.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice....
I love these posts from you. Murnaghan was quite amusing on Sky earlier - even he couldn't keep a straight face over threats to remove free bus passes - as well as WW3.
Activists are physically and emotionaly tired by this point in any campaign. Momentum on delivering and canvassing can drop off very rapidly if people scent defeat in the air. Had Remain been comfortably ahead in the polls, our activists would have been drifting off by now. The opposite is happening. I dont know how things amongst Remain activists? The Ed Milliband photo yesterday didnt look like a campaign firing on all cylinders.
That is an interesting point. My local MP was out campaigning/canvassing in the village High Street yesterday, accompanied by one chap handing out leaflets. Just one person and no stall, no banners, no signs. Was that because he felt the place was already so pro-remain that he didn't need to do much and was just going through the motions or was it because the local Conservative Party could not get anyone else to support him?
That was an interesting anecdote of yours.
IIRC Nick Herbert described immigrants as 'new citizens'.
Which rather correlates with my suggestion that the 'elite' would willingly swap the British people for a randomly drawn selection from around the world.
Perhaps Labour are pinning their hopes on a close "Leave" vote, leading to negotiations that don't produce anything like what Leave are suggesting, leading to a General Election and Labour coming in with a mandate to put the final terms to another referendum.
Comments
FWIW , I think this is going to be like 1992 .. People will go into the voting booth, hold their noses and vote remain.
It took me a while to realise that he wasn't talking about Brexit.
Trump is LEAVE's 2nd best recruiting Agent (+9%)
Cameron is LEAVE's best recruiting agent (+13%)
A mixture of anti-immigration, anti-Cameron and voter strikes (cannot be bothered). Turnout for Labour voters could be more than 10% lower than the Conservative voters.
There's a common misapprehension that rural areas are all middle class and affluent.
I think its now being revealed how working class and deprived many rural areas are compared with the 'stockbroker belt'.
The last ten days should be interesting from a marketing point of view. The Professionals V The Amateurs. It's clear the rather shambolic early days of Remain have now been replaced by a much slicker operation. Their negative (and positive) targetting has become much sharper. Leave are bumbling along in the same rather shambolic way but the public seem to be liking it. It's easy to imagine the well oiled Remain machine taking the lead but its by no means certain
Remain is a massively hyped big budget turkey.
shock:
Had Remain been comfortably ahead in the polls, our activists would have been drifting off by now. The opposite is happening. I dont know how things amongst Remain activists? The Ed Milliband photo yesterday didnt look like a campaign firing on all cylinders.
Like many metropolitan leftists Hodges has little understanding of people outside his comfort zone.
Now we all have a tendency to that but Hodges's comfort zone is perhaps a little more niche than that of most people.
All I can tell you is that it's rather mixed around here (Odiham) but I live in one of the wealthiest parts of the UK. I think the retired and older voters, plus those on the ex-local authority estates, will be for Leave. The smaller private estates, under 40s, and commuters to London, will break for Remain.
On the other hand, Union Jacks are everywhere (almost certainly for the Queen's 90th birthday street party we're having today) but could be mood music as well.
https://twitter.com/JonathanNichol4/status/741922199515353088
Peston on Sunday Verified account
@pestononsunday
The full list of media appearances made by @lboroCRCC Centre for Research in Communication and Culture #Peston
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkvTQNdWYAEyB33.jpg
It was carnage. Like nothing George, had seen before and the casualties were piling up. Truth was first to cop it of course - shot through the heart and George knew he was partly to blame, and the latest reports were getting more troubling.
BBC signals had picked up a message from the Foreign Legion. Generals Merkel and Hollande didn't know what to do now. True Brigadier Juncker was working on a big bazooka with Colonels Tusk and Schulz which they called project "vow", but as yet it needed 27 triggers to fire it, and nobody knew if it would go off in their face.
But as he scanned the battlefield further there were causes for optimism. In the North West the Irish Guards were holding up well, stiffened by the visit of old Field Marshals Grey and Orange in the week. The Sturgeon Highlanders were unbeatable at the northern end of the field resplendent in their salmon kilts and cerise Izzard berets. God I wish I had more of them, thought George
ruefully, for though good they were few in number. The the West though reports were coming in that the Welsh guards were complaining about their steel weapons and we're going over to the opposition.
But it was the Left flank which bothered George the most. This was the centrepiece of the defence and it was in trouble. General Corbyn was there on the far left of the field in his trademark tin foil hat, so beloved of many of his praetorian guard, but he was firing intermittently and randomly at God knows what. Most of his able lieutenants seem to be spending time looking at plans and sharpening daggers. Such was the confusion the whole left flank was in danger of crumbling, something the Guardianista intelligence agency had assured George just was not possible. That said George knew it was the same agency that had insisted General Corbyn's troops be fed on fair trade mung bean and organic celeriac fritters prepared by Polish chefs. Reports were flooding in of troop mutinies demanding their pie and mash back like General Farage's foot soldiers were getting.
The gunsmoke cleared a little and there it was. George just caught a glimpse of General Merkel out of the side of his eye, for she had seen it too. There she was Picklhaube slightly askew now, hand held over open mouth aghast. She was been warned about this sight but had not believed it could ever be true. But there it was heading for George.
George saw it too. God they it was closer that he had expected and bigger than anyone thought possible. Badly led, shot at by experts, outrageous crap flung at them, but they were still in the fight, this close to the end, somehow against all odds: the British electorate.
There they were in blue, red, purple, even bits of yellow and green shouting awful cries like "Sod you all!", some were brandishing scary vacuum cleaner accessories and screaming a blood curdling "cobblers".George swallowed. He could've led the charge at their head. A glorious cavalry dash into the Pantheon of greatness of his supporters it would've been, but he had chosen another course with Field Marshal Cameron.
"George!", the urgency in the voice snapped George from his reverie "the report! Have we fired everything". "Yes Field Marshal Cameron". " The big American gun?". "Yes sir". "What happened?" "It backfired, sir". "The Four horsemen of The Apocalypse?" "Turned into burgers in the field kitchen, sir". "That's scandalous. The wardrobe monster?" "Turns out he's mythical, sir".The Fleld Marshal's cheeks flushed a little "Mythical!? But at Eton we used to..... " His voice trailed off.
"So it's down to the regimental Padre George". "Welby
sir?". "Yes, Welby, good man Welby, he's praying for us".
Yes thought George his sinews now stiffened a little, it was down to the Padre. So they were going to win after all. Weren't they?
In this campaign, I'm not sure having the professional or at least the professional political approach is necessarily going to win it for them.
I suspect the writers may not understand their audience very well.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3636929/I-m-kids-words-Samantha-Cameron-delivers-Brexit-broadside-says-won-t-gamble-children-s-futures.html#ixzz4BMDNE2pX
Hmm...if this really is her first newspaper article since Cameron became PM (and I assume it must be), I think it is safe to assume that Remain are very worried.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/htmlview?pli=1#gid=927848577
Is that Leave should have a 22 point lead in Boston, Lincs (ie 61,39).
It will be wider than that, non?
Vardy didn't play and Kane's key stats were:
◾Harry Kane took six corners in the game, only one fewer than he managed in his 38 Premier League games in 2015-16.
◾Kane did not have a single touch in the opposition box against Russia.
Hmmm .....
Get your facts right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX_oy9614HQ
Added: But she is not an AB.
I wonder how many people are even noticing the advertising material beyond the odd pop up on social media plus the leaflets through the door.
But how can Remain counter it? They can't counter it with Tory politicians because it will just drive them further away. There's no point is using most Labour politicians because their voters won't listen to them. Either they've got to find some Labour politicians still with the power to move votes (can G Brown do that???) or the only tactic they've got is to scare the voters with the prospect of a Boris/Gove/IDS/Farage government. But Tories trying to scare voters with the prospect of a Tory Government is a difficult sell.
We need to asses the outcome before casting aspersions.,..
He's likely to have made far more money out of land value in the last 15 yrs.
I know I should apparently be annoyed but I really can't be as I found it funny to see people who I have never seen a single political post from get all hot and bothered over the Archers. It seems quintessentially English.
Or should that be 28?
The problem last night was the conservative substitutions. If Vardy was on at the 60 minute mark for the brain dead Sterling we would have comfortably won that game IMO. Roy has got away with it though, there wasn't much criticism last night about this. Instead it was unlucky old England blah blah.
At least you have stopped trying to claim t is all a mean lie.
Just like the line "I don't want to stab Cameron in the back, I want to stab him in the front so I can see his eyes" was not a threat to murder.
That is why I am so surprised that Scotland is pretty much not taking part in this campaign. It is as strong (apparently) for Remain as London but there seems almost no effort to get out the voters, harvest the postal votes etc. If Scotland has a low turnout as I expect remain will have missed an important trick.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/741743746123960320
Risk Perception on Leaving:
81% say some risk
26% say great risk
47% of Remainers did not think leaving was a great risk
67% of Labour voters did not think leaving was a great risk
Those numbers plus this morning's YG show that those likeliest to perceive great risk and be more susceptible to calls to expertise are Lib Dems, Greens and young people.
More mature people (50+) are least susceptible to 'experts' in this campaign.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice....
Well done. As a convinced member of Sturgeon's Highlanders well done to you - I laughed like a drain.
26% think Leaving is a great risk. 53% of Leavers think leaving is a great risk.
IIRC Nick Herbert described immigrants as 'new citizens'.
Which rather correlates with my suggestion that the 'elite' would willingly swap the British people for a randomly drawn selection from around the world.