Andrew Mitchell, Grant Shapps, Tracey Crouch, Jackie Doyle-Price, James Heappey, Pauline Latham, Phillip Lee, Charlotte Leslie, Huw Merriman, Wendy Morton, Caroline Nokes, Mary Robinson, David Tredennick, Jessie Norman [not declaring]
Downing Street will be offering everything under the sun to the bigger names to get them on the Remain side. Keep an eye on Mitchell…
@ianbirrell: The Leave campaign looks increasingly indistinguishable from Ukip says @sarahwollaston. Spot-on, to shame of those posing as moderate Tories
Remain pushing as hard with the "Nigel Farage's Little Englanders" narrative today as yesterday.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Schengen.
Precisely.
I'm old enough to remember when there were border checks, mostly to stop smuggling it took about 2 minutes to clear both sides.
LOL
Mostly to stop smuggling! Of what??!! Dizzy cows?
There most certainly was not an open border "during the height of the Troubles".
Pre troubles the North and Republw you had crossed the border was when the road signs changed.
Indeed, and my point was that in theory there was not an open border, although in practice there was nothing to be done and the border was not able to be policed in its entirety.
As my last link showed is possible, the CTA may be amended and if we went back to that situation you describe, then that would have implications for, as Hugh Order noted, for the security situation.
LOL just because it isnt reported on national newlk across it.
Look up Slab Murphy if you want to see how it's done.
I am perfectly aware of the security situation in Northern Ireland today. I am also very aware of the security situation during and after the Troubles.
That does not alter or affect the point I, and Huge Orde, and plenty of others were making. If it turns out that the CTA is amended, that we return to some kind of border controls, it is possible that nationalists may react to this in a negative way.
If you remember the start of this exchange - someone, flippantly, in a you'll-never-believe-what-rubbish-they're-pushing-now way misquoted someone saying that if we leave the EU the IRA will return.
Well, first as I'm sure you are aware, the IRA never went away; but secondly, perhaps you could give your on the ground analysis of how the nationalists might react to there being a border between north and south once more.
This last a genuine question. You are, after all, living there.
Really it shows how much you actually read what other people say or take note.
It;s pretty well known on PB I live in Warwickshire and work in the Midlands most of my family still live in Ireland both sides of the border and I go there regularly.
As for how nationalists will react they'll be pissed off, but imo not so pissed off that they'll want another 30 years of trashing the place.
Sarah Wollaston was one of the MPs who surprised me by backing Leave in the first place (not that I followed her views in detail, but she never struck me as the leaving type.) So not mega-surprised that she's switched. It would have been very easy for her just to keep her head down for the next two weeks though, and our macho-politics derides any uncertainty as a "screeching U-Turn" so good on her. I heard a Vote Leave rep on the radio this morning saying how it showed people were changing their minds both ways as they heard the debate - thought that was probably their best response.
No surprise she's been idolised and demonised this morning, a sign of quite how low the debate has sunk. Can it be, that even among those who've looked into it in detail, it's a balanced decision? It certainly is for me, as I've come to the conclusion that taking our frustrations with the EU out would only damage ourselves. Part of the problem is the EU is a monopoly - it doesn't have to work any better because there is no alternative. Perhaps if the vote is to Remain, the sceptics could put their energy into creating EU 2.0
If we Leave we can provide that alternative.
I've recently had some interesting discussions with friends who believe in the unity of humanity and a single world Government. I pointed out that I felt it was an absolutely awful idea; it would become wholly captured by vested interests and elites, and work in their interests, undemocratic, become self-perpetuating, have no regulatory diversity, and be so large and dominant it would be practically impossible to leave it. It would be highly corrupting and corruptible.
The EU is precisely this, in minature, for Europe.
I don't want that future for my kids or my grandkids.
Your friends sound more interesting than mine
I know we're too far apart to ever meet on this, but this idea that leaving somehow means we're looking globally seems bananas to me. Leaving is just that, Cameron's now using the word 'quitting' whenever he can - quite rightly. There's no other regional grouping who we could join, so it is a choice to go our own way. I can see the attractions from sovereignty (and at least understand them on immigration) but I can't see how leaving would somehow create the environment for an alternative grouping to emerge.
I think we'd end up creating a new non-euro non-EU European grouping and compel the EU + eurozone to democratically reform in turn (basic competition) - at the same time we could forge much faster global links than we are currently able to do, as an independent global democratic voice.
I'm very excited about it. And I'm 100% convinced it's the right thing to do.
To some extent there was a similar competition earlier between EFTA and the EEC, which the EEC won comprehensively.
I think your idea is an interesting one, with the caveat that it is not a reason to vote Out. There is unlikely to be any demand for an alternative to the EU any time soon. However if you are voting Out anyway, it's a good long term thing to do.
Standardisation has a value, which is why the EU has developed as it has. For the same there aren't any alternative organisations to the UN and NATO. The business case for the alternative arrangement is that the EU is in such a big crisis that it obliterates the value of standardisation. The risk of the EU collapsing is high enough to consider alternatives (your proposal), but not high enough to affect our decision making (don't switch from In to Out on the assumption thar it will happen)
Leave are in for a complete battering over the next two weeks. The PM and No 10 are going to be absolutely brutal.
And then he is going to try and govern with all those people he brutalised on his backbenches... good luck with that. It won't be about remain or leave by then, it will be personal.
Personally I think the real hilarity is going to be Dodgy Dave tearing his party to pieces, making it so that one half the party can't talk to the other without spitting, so that he can stay in his beloved EU... and then FN win in France and the EU implodes. Failing that, he will lose his majority to the kippers in 2020, 5% of voters moving from the Tories to UKIP and they will win 30 seats, and that's the end of that.
The FN won't win in France.
Juppe leads Le Pen 70:30 in the second round.
Sarkozy head to head more relevant tho!
I find it hard to see why Les Républicains would commit electoral suicide and go for Sarkozy ahead of Juppe.
coughcorbyncough
Actually I think Sarkozy would still beat Hollande in the 1st round, and subsequently beat Le Pen in the second. Sarkozy is a poor choice, but Hollande will lose so much splintering on his left to Greens/Communists etc, that he will come 3rd. The Socialist's need to ditch Hollande to have any chance.
Valls or Mancon but Hollande has come ahead of Sarkozy before
Sarah Wollaston was one of the MPs who surprised me by backing Leave in the first place (not that I followed her views in detail, but she never struck me as the leaving type.) So not mega-surprised that she's switched. It would have been very easy for her just to keep her head down for the next two weeks though, and our macho-politics derides any uncertainty as a "screeching U-Turn" so good on her. I heard a Vote Leave rep on the radio this morning saying how it showed people were changing their minds both ways as they heard the debate - thought that was probably their best response.
No surprise she's been idolised and demonised this morning, a sign of quite how low the debate has sunk. Can it be, that even among those who've looked into it in detail, it's a balanced decision? It certainly is for me, as I've come to the conclusion that taking our frustrations with the EU out would only damage ourselves. Part of the problem is the EU is a monopoly - it doesn't have to work any better because there is no alternative. Perhaps if the vote is to Remain, the sceptics could put their energy into creating EU 2.0
If we Leave we can provide that alternative.
I've recently had some interesting discussions with friends who believe in the unity of humanity and a single world Government. I pointed out that I felt it was an absolutely awful idea; it would become wholly captured by vested interests and elites, and work in their interests, undemocratic, become self-perpetuating, have no regulatory diversity, and be so large and dominant it would be practically impossible to leave it. It would be highly corrupting and corruptible.
The EU is precisely this, in minature, for Europe.
I don't want that future for my kids or my grandkids.
Your friends sound more interesting than mine
I know we're too far apart to ever meet on this, but this idea that leaving somehow means we're looking globally seems bananas to me. Leaving is just that, Cameron's now using the word 'quitting' whenever he can - quite rightly. There's no other regional grouping who we could join, so it is a choice to go our own way. I can see the attractions from sovereignty (and at least understand them on immigration) but I can't see how leaving would somehow create the environment for an alternative grouping to emerge.
I think we'd end up creating a new non-euro non-EU European grouping and compel the EU + eurozone to democratically reform in turn (basic competition) - at the same time we could forge much faster global links than we are currently able to do, as an independent global democratic voice.
I'm very excited about it. And I'm 100% convinced it's the right thing to do.
Sounds wonderful - genuinely.
I just don't believe a word of it. And saying we should leave based on this lovely idea somehow coming to pass - not for me sorry.
It's not that far fetched. If we leave, then Denmark and Sweden lose the only major power broker who are also never going to be in the Euro, additionally the EU will push through further federalisation/integration measures in order to try and silence any dissent. As long as we don't bugger up after leaving there's a fairly large chance that both Sweden and Denmark will follow us out of the EU and into EFTA.
It does feel a lot like Cameron is throwing everything at this. I think Major on Sunday was the first attempt to turn round remain fortunes which probably had some success, but then after the programme with Farage momentum dropped. Come Friday night football will be on the minds of the masses and he will struggle to get his message across. If we wants to create a lead in the polls he needs to get movement in the next 24 hours and he will be hoping Wollaston has kick started that.
I've been monitoring the facebook likes of both campaigns in the past 2 months and the support levels have had a direct correlation with events as you might expect. Leave had an excellent 10 days up until Sunday when Remain picked up and re-overtook Leave. From Cameron/Farage debate onwards Leave has pulled away but I've noticed that has slowed down a bit today.
My Facebook feed is full of previously apolitical 30-40 somethings "liking" or copying pro-remain stuff. Quite surprising, these people really show no general political interest at all online or face to face and based on that I expect a Remain win, possibly quite comfortably.
Not a single pro-Leave thing posted. Just my $0.02
I think Leave voters are more likely to turnout though but the few remaining undecideds will break for Remain; giving Remain victory by a tiny margin
I've recently had some interesting discussions with friends who believe in the unity of humanity and a single world Government. I pointed out that I felt it was an absolutely awful idea; it would become wholly captured by vested interests and elites, and work in their interests, undemocratic, become self-perpetuating, have no regulatory diversity, and be so large and dominant it would be practically impossible to leave it. It would be highly corrupting and corruptible.
The EU is precisely this, in minature, for Europe.
I don't want that future for my kids or my grandkids.
I think you've, perhaps inadvertently, made a good point for Remain there.
So long as the EU continues to exist, with almost all of our European cousins and partners in it, no much how much we loathe it or rail against it, it IS practically impossible to leave.
Leaving would be like backing out of a holiday with a group of friends because all but yourself want to go to somewhere you don't much care for - so you do without a holiday, or have to go somewhere on your own (or with someone else) rather than going with the people you wanted to spend time with.
Leadership is about taking the first step, to fight for what you believe is right.
"Never do something because everyone else is doing it. Stand up for what you think is right and then convince them to follow your lead instead" - Thatcher
If this referendum campaign has shown anything, it's shown that you (despite agreeing with 99/% of what I said on my blog, your own words) clearly don't have it within yourself to do that.
I am very disappointed but it's your decision.
I haven't yet decided. There is a fortnight and I expect I won't actually decide until the pencil is in my hand.
The Thatcher quote could equally be used to support Remain. Let's stay in and make the arguments, influence the debate, and push for an EU mark 2 or an Associate Member model, whilst using our time that we stay in to do all we can to ensure the legislation that spouts out from the EU doesn't harm us too much. That would be leadership wouldn't it, not bailing out and walking away.
And yes, I did agree with most of what you said in your excellent blog post (don't think I said 99% to be fair), the one flaw I felt in it was that it assumed we were now at the point of no return and it was now "now or never". I don't think it is.
We have spent forty years trying to reform from inside. Cameron just tried to do it (look at how poor a reponse he got to his Bloomberg speech) and that was when we were threatening to Leave with an actual in/out referendum in the offing.
This is I think central to the issue. Transparently, we haven't done this. I'm sure you could quote chapter and verse at me about what Major or Blair or the Coalition did or didn't do, but I really don't think they tried too hard to reform. In fact the only time I can remember that we pushed back on something was the Fiscal Compact. Which we successfully pushed back on.
Perhaps because they didn't feel the public cared that much for them to try too hard. If there had been more of an impetus, I'm sure they would have tried harder.
Look at now - we only have a referendum because UKIP grew in size and forced one on Dave.
It comes back to my point that many Leavers are more disappointed with the actions or inactions of British politicians than they are with the EU.
It's increasingly difficult to keep track of what the Tories current position is.
AFAIK there are a baker's dozen of Tory MPs left to declare. I'd expect the vast majority of them to declare for Remain in the next two weeks, except Jesse Norman who has made a virtue of his neutrality and who I think may spoil his ballot.
As I said it's personalities today.
I note all the presumed shifters are Conservative. That should help build trust in the party of principle.
It does feel a lot like Cameron is throwing everything at this. I think Major on Sunday was the first attempt to turn round remain fortunes which probably had some success, but then after the programme with Farage momentum dropped. Come Friday night football will be on the minds of the masses and he will struggle to get his message across. If we wants to create a lead in the polls he needs to get movement in the next 24 hours and he will be hoping Wollaston has kick started that.
I've been monitoring the facebook likes of both campaigns in the past 2 months and the support levels have had a direct correlation with events as you might expect. Leave had an excellent 10 days up until Sunday when Remain picked up and re-overtook Leave. From Cameron/Farage debate onwards Leave has pulled away but I've noticed that has slowed down a bit today.
My Facebook feed is full of previously apolitical 30-40 somethings "liking" or copying pro-remain stuff. Quite surprising, these people really show no general political interest at all online or face to face and based on that I expect a Remain win, possibly quite comfortably.
Not a single pro-Leave thing posted. Just my $0.02
I think Leave voters are more likely to turnout though but the few remaining undecideds will break for Remain; giving Remain victory by a tiny margin
I'm a leave voter but wouldnt be too disheartened with losing by a small margin. I was worried only a fortnight ago this could be remain 60 or even 65 plus but that seems highly unlikely now as we get into the football which will help shore up the leave vote. I do feel that Remain always have that extra bit of dark arts when required to ramp up the fear and herd more of the undecideds into their camp.
It's increasingly difficult to keep track of what the Tories current position is.
AFAIK there are a baker's dozen of Tory MPs left to declare. I'd expect the vast majority of them to declare for Remain in the next two weeks, except Jesse Norman who has made a virtue of his neutrality and who I think may spoil his ballot.
As I said it's personalities today.
I note all the presumed shifters are Conservative. That should help build trust in the party of principle.
This referendum really has shredded reputations.
its a fair point - Remain seem to be basing their campaign on who can secure patronage for others - it certainly keeps the Westminster bubble and the media frothing. As the country at large shrugs..
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Schengen.
Precisely.
I'm old enough to remember when there were border checks, mostly to stop smuggling it took about 2 minutes to clear both sides.
LOL
Mostly to stop smuggling! Of what??!! Dizzy cows?
There most certainly was not an open border "during the height of the Troubles".
Pre troubles the North and Republw you had crossed the border was when the road signs changed.
Indeed, and my point was that in theory there was not an open border, although in practice there was nothing to be done and the border was not able to be policed in its entirety.
As my last link showed is possible, the CTA may be amended and if we went back to that situation you describe, then that would have implications for, as Hugh Order noted, for the security situation.
LOL just because it isnt reported on national newlk across it.
Look up Slab Murphy if you want to see how it's done.
I am perfectlyeturn.
Well, first as I'm sure you are aware, tall, living there.
Really it shows how much you actually read what other people say or take note.
It;s pretty well known on PB I live in Warwickshire and work in the Midlands most of my family still live in Ireland both sides of the border and I go there regularly.
As for how nationalists will react they'll be pissed off, but imo not so pissed off that they'll want another 30 years of trashing the place.
ah! oops. Apols. In the heat of the moment I forgot you are in this country (makes a change from talking to Leavers who are 5,000 miles away..)
I disagree about the "not so pissed off" bit, though. Didn't the Met just increase the security alert for Irish terrorism. As you will know, and as your family will attest, the war is not over for those who are fighting it, no matter how many battles they lose, and the reimposition of border controls would act as a strong recruiting sergeant.
To some extent there was a similar competition earlier between EFTA and the EEC, which the EEC won comprehensively.
I think your idea is an interesting one, with the caveat that it is not a reason to vote Out. There is unlikely to be any demand for an alternative to the EU any time soon. However if you are voting Out anyway, it's a good long term thing to do.
Standardisation has a value, which is why the EU has developed as it has. For the same there aren't any alternative organisations to the UN and NATO. The business case for the alternative arrangement is that the EU is in such a big crisis that it obliterates the value of standardisation. The risk of the EU collapsing is high enough to consider alternatives (your proposal), but not high enough to affect our decision making (don't switch from In to Out on the assumption thar it will happen)
Pushing the idea of single global goods standards via the WTO is what we need to do. Sector by sector we need to work on breaking down NTBs and introducing minimum export standards for WTO trade. Much better than regional trade deals.
As for EFTA, the landscape has changed, there is now a two speed EU, the EMU and non-EMU nations. Having a one size fits all solution to two groups of countries with different agendas and economies makes no sense.
those who said leavers were cynical about Wollaston earlier have at least been proven wrong now. Clearly with Shapps remaining too this has been a calculated play by remain to keep the defections in the headlines.
I'm writing the afternoon thread, anyone got any ideas why The Sun, Mail etc aren't covering the mauling Osborne got from Andrew Neil? I know PB Leavers said it was a disaster.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
Good point. The 2011 CTA agreement says this: The two governments commit to co-operating to the fullest extent possible to align the list of nationals who are visa required for travel to the two countries. . That obviously is the opposite of what will happen post-Brexit. So while I think both governments would want to continue with it, the stresses in the system may bring it down
Would it be that different though? It's unlikely we'll impose visit visas on EU nationals if we leave the EU. Getting through the border is different to having the right to live and work and claim benefits somewhere.
Another good point. I have been banging on here that Brexit won't make a big difference to immigration, even though both sides for different reasons are unwilling to admit it. Leave because it removes their main argument; Remain, in the form of Cameron, because it exposes his previous claim of bringing down immigration as false. He never intended to do it.
I think it's clear where the Government has been putting its efforts since the imposition of purdah.
Disgusting.
Which is why Leave need to get the discussion back onto the issues and get the government defending the EU. Allowing this to turn back into a political mudslinging match is only ever going to have one winner, and it could result in a fairly large win for Remain.
"Grant Shapps, a former Tory chairman, has resigned from the government in disgrace in the wake of revelations that he had been warned about bullying in the party before the death of one of its young activists."
I've recently had some interesting discussions with friends who believe in the unity of humanity and a single world Government. I pointed out that I felt it was an absolutely awful idea; it would become wholly captured by vested interests and elites, and work in their interests, undemocratic, become self-perpetuating, have no regulatory diversity, and be so large and dominant it would be practically impossible to leave it. It would be highly corrupting and corruptible.
The EU is precisely this, in minature, for Europe.
I don't want that future for my kids or my grandkids.
I think you've, perhaps inadvertently, made a good point for Remain there.
So long as the EU continues to exist, with almost all of our European cousins and partners in it, no much how much we loathe it or rail against it, it IS practically impossible to leave.
Leaving would be like backing out of a holiday with a group of friends because all but yourself want to go to somewhere you don't much care for - so you do without a holiday, or have to go somewhere on your own (or with someone else) rather than going with the people you wanted to spend time with.
To borrow your analogy: Remain is like going on holiday to Benidorm when you don't actually want to go there and would rather go to Venice. They don't mind if you want to tell other people you are going to Venice... as long as it is understood that Benidorm is the destination. You are expected to pay for most of your friends to go on holiday, too, and when you express any doubts about this arrangement they threaten never to speak to you again if you don't go.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Welcome to PB.
Thank you! I've been lurking for 10 years+ and the referendum debate is driving me insane!! Hence the slightly bad tempered first post, for which my apologies... Just two weeks til it's all over - what will we all do then?
It does feel a lot like Cameron is throwing everything at this. I think Major on Sunday was the first attempt to turn round remain fortunes which probably had some success, but then after the programme with Farage momentum dropped. Come Friday night football will be on the minds of the masses and he will struggle to get his message across. If we wants to create a lead in the polls he needs to get movement in the next 24 hours and he will be hoping Wollaston has kick started that.
I've been monitoring the facebook likes of both campaigns in the past 2 months and the support levels have had a direct correlation with events as you might expect. Leave had an excellent 10 days up until Sunday when Remain picked up and re-overtook Leave. From Cameron/Farage debate onwards Leave has pulled away but I've noticed that has slowed down a bit today.
My Facebook feed is full of previously apolitical 30-40 somethings "liking" or copying pro-remain stuff. Quite surprising, these people really show no general political interest at all online or face to face and based on that I expect a Remain win, possibly quite comfortably.
Not a single pro-Leave thing posted. Just my $0.02
I think Leave voters are more likely to turnout though but the few remaining undecideds will break for Remain; giving Remain victory by a tiny margin
I'm a leave voter but wouldnt be too disheartened with losing by a small margin. I was worried only a fortnight ago this could be remain 60 or even 65 plus but that seems highly unlikely now as we get into the football which will help shore up the leave vote. I do feel that Remain always have that extra bit of dark arts when required to ramp up the fear and herd more of the undecideds into their camp.
Indeed 51 49 Remain would be my ideal result and probably secretly Farage's too ideally with England voting Leave
It's increasingly difficult to keep track of what the Tories current position is.
AFAIK there are a baker's dozen of Tory MPs left to declare. I'd expect the vast majority of them to declare for Remain in the next two weeks, except Jesse Norman who has made a virtue of his neutrality and who I think may spoil his ballot.
Provides more opportunity for people to replace them as candidates at selection time.
To some extent there was a similar competition earlier between EFTA and the EEC, which the EEC won comprehensively.
I think your idea is an interesting one, with the caveat that it is not a reason to vote Out. There is unlikely to be any demand for an alternative to the EU any time soon. However if you are voting Out anyway, it's a good long term thing to do.
Standardisation has a value, which is why the EU has developed as it has. For the same there aren't any alternative organisations to the UN and NATO. The business case for the alternative arrangement is that the EU is in such a big crisis that it obliterates the value of standardisation. The risk of the EU collapsing is high enough to consider alternatives (your proposal), but not high enough to affect our decision making (don't switch from In to Out on the assumption thar it will happen)
Pushing the idea of single global goods standards via the WTO is what we need to do. Sector by sector we need to work on breaking down NTBs and introducing minimum export standards for WTO trade. Much better than regional trade deals.
As for EFTA, the landscape has changed, there is now a two speed EU, the EMU and non-EMU nations. Having a one size fits all solution to two groups of countries with different agendas and economies makes no sense.
Thanks. If there is a two speed EU wouldn't that remove some of the stresses in the EU and make alternatives less attractive? And also counteract claims that remaining in the EU implies greater integration down the line?
those who said leavers were cynical about Wollaston earlier have at least been proven wrong now. Clearly with Shapps remaining too this has been a calculated play by remain to keep the defections in the headlines.
Shapps isn't a 'defection' - he hasn't previously said which side he supported
I think it's clear where the Government has been putting its efforts since the imposition of purdah.
Disgusting.
Dave's trying to win the referendum? What a cad and bounder!
You think it's disgusting for Leave to try and win it using their strongest card of immigration.
Glasshouses. Stones.
No. You keep on talking about immigration. I think it's disgusting the way supporters of Turkish membership of the EU, like Boris, Gove etc have behaved.
I called Dave out on similar behaviour over Khan, so I'm consistent.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Welcome to PB.
Thank you! I've been lurking for 10 years+ and the referendum debate is driving me insane!! Hence the slightly bad tempered first post, for which my apologies... Just two weeks til it's all over - what will we all do then?
Ha! It's certainly got things going in a way I never expected. I'm news-ed out today and watching pulp TV for light relief.
I'm writing the afternoon thread, anyone got any ideas why The Sun, Mail etc aren't covering the mauling Osborne got from Andrew Neil? I know PB Leavers said it was a disaster.
I can't be arsed looking for any more. Maybe if you spent less time looking at the fleshpots on the righthand side you'd find what you're looking for.
I'm writing the afternoon thread, anyone got any ideas why The Sun, Mail etc aren't covering the mauling Osborne got from Andrew Neil? I know PB Leavers said it was a disaster.
I can't be arsed looking for any more. Maybe if you spent less time looking at the fleshpots on the righthand side you'd find what you're looking for.
ah! oops. Apols. In the heat of the moment I forgot you are in this country (makes a change from talking to Leavers who are 5,000 miles away..)
I disagree about the "not so pissed off" bit, though. Didn't the Met just increase the security alert for Irish terrorism. As you will know, and as your family will attest, the war is not over for those who are fighting it, no matter how many battles they lose, and the reimposition of border controls would act as a strong recruiting sergeant.
Mr. Topping, may I please gently take issue with your use of the word, "war". I obviously do not have the personal and family experiences of Northern Ireland and its relationship with the RoI that Mr. Brooke does. None the less it did occupy a great chunk of my adult life, about twenty years worth, so I have some first hand experience.
PIRA and the associated organisations, on both sides, were never fighting a war, Criminal gangsterism, aimed as much at self enrichment and securing control over certain communities as anything else, yes, but a war it certainly was not.
I'm writing the afternoon thread, anyone got any ideas why The Sun, Mail etc aren't covering the mauling Osborne got from Andrew Neil? I know PB Leavers said it was a disaster.
I can't be arsed looking for any more. Maybe if you spent less time looking at the fleshpots on the righthand side you'd find what you're looking for.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
Precisely.
I'm old enough to remember when there were border checks, mostly to stop smuggling it took about 2 minutes to clear both sides.
LOL
Mostly to stop smuggling! Of what??!! Dizzy cows?
There most certainly was not an open border "during the height of the Troubles".
Pre troubles the North and Republw you had crossed the border was when the road signs changed.
Indeed, and my point was that in theory there was not an open border, although in practice there was nothing to be done and the border was not able to be policed in its entirety.
As my last link showed is possible, the CTA may be amended and if we went back to that situation you describe, then that would have implications for, as Hugh Order noted, for the security situation.
LOL just because it isnt reported on national news do you think there is no security situation now ? This is simply your lack of understanding of how things on the ground actually are.
In any event a review of the Troubles would show that what turned the tide on the paramilitaries wasnt border controls, but infiltration , better intelligence and an agreement between the UK and RoI that maybe it wasn't such a good idea to have these people in our societies. The Border was so pourous you could walk across it.
Look up Slab Murphy if you want to see how it's done.
Not just walk but have a barn straddling both sides if I recall
It does feel a lot like Cameron is throwing everything at this. I think Major on Sunday was the first attempt to turn round remain fortunes which probably had some success, but then after the programme with Farage momentum dropped. Come Friday night football will be on the minds of the masses and he will struggle to get his message across. If we wants to create a lead in the polls he needs to get movement in the next 24 hours and he will be hoping Wollaston has kick started that.
I've been monitoring the facebook likes of both campaigns in the past 2 months and the support levels have had a direct correlation with events as you might expect. Leave had an excellent 10 days up until Sunday when Remain picked up and re-overtook Leave. From Cameron/Farage debate onwards Leave has pulled away but I've noticed that has slowed down a bit today.
My Facebook feed is full of previously apolitical 30-40 somethings "liking" or copying pro-remain stuff. Quite surprising, these people really show no general political interest at all online or face to face and based on that I expect a Remain win, possibly quite comfortably.
Not a single pro-Leave thing posted. Just my $0.02
I think that many apolitical people in their late 30s to mid 40s who grew up in Thatcher and Major years are more inclined to David Camerons brand of conservatism Ie socially liberal than a more right wing approach. This is a result of the myths and perceived excesses of the Thatcher governments and the splits in The Tories during Majors leadership..back to basics, songs about single mums and so on. It would certainly help explain the failure of the more right wing Tory leaders since 1997 and the fact that it took a very centrist Tory leadership to just about get a majority against a very weak Labour party nearly 20 years later.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Welcome to PB.
Thank you! I've been lurking for 10 years+ and the referendum debate is driving me insane!! Hence the slightly bad tempered first post, for which my apologies... Just two weeks til it's all over - what will we all do then?
Ha! It's certainly got things going in a way I never expected. I'm news-ed out today and watching pulp TV for light relief.
I'm watching the DOTA 2 Manila Major while watching TSE trolling the board on t'other screen .
Serious question do you think Vote Leave have a campaign plan or not. Gove promised more on their plans for the economy this week , has anybody heard any more about this. Also they don't seem to have a spokesperson to rebut the media when under attack. Perhaps I am missing something. I want leave to win but they really need to up their game in the next two weeks
You are shown 3 doors, behind two are Grant Shapps and the other is Mr Green....you pick one and the host opens another door to reveal a Grant Shapps, do you stick or switch?
Serious question do you think Vote Leave have a campaign plan or not. Gove promised more on their plans for the economy this week , has anybody heard any more about this. Also they don't seem to have a spokesperson to rebut the media when under attack. Perhaps I am missing something. I want leave to win but they really need to up their game in the next two weeks
From Day One, the Remain campaign is far better organised and clearly working to a "Grid". Leave seems more like an episode of TFI Friday, planned by two blokes in a pub the afternoon before the show.
You are shown 3 doors, behind two are Grant Shapps and the other is Mr Green....you pick one and the host opens another door to reveal a Grant Shapps, do you stick or switch?
Neither. You post a firebomb through the letterbox.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Welcome to PB.
Thank you! I've been lurking for 10 years+ and the referendum debate is driving me insane!! Hence the slightly bad tempered first post, for which my apologies... Just two weeks til it's all over - what will we all do then?
Cleveland and Philadelphia conventions. I bloody well hope the Betfair president market is reduced to the actual runners at that point
Ha! It's certainly got things going in a way I never expected. I'm news-ed out today and watching pulp TV for light relief.
Miss Plato, did you see that article the Telegraph last week that suggested couples were having less sex because they spend so much time watching box sets on the television? My immediate reactions was, "Golly, how boring must your sex life be if watching telly is seen as a better alternative?"
Its like angling. One can see blokes, and it is overwhelmingly men, sitting in the rain by the side of a canal staring for hours at a float. How awful and boring must their home/social life be for that to be a great way of passing the time?
To some extent there was a similar competition earlier between EFTA and the EEC, which the EEC won comprehensively.
I think your idea is an interesting one, with the caveat that it is not a reason to vote Out. There is unlikely to be any demand for an alternative to the EU any time soon. However if you are voting Out anyway, it's a good long term thing to do.
Standardisation has a value, which is why the EU has developed as it has. For the same there aren't any alternative organisations to the UN and NATO. The business case for the alternative arrangement is that the EU is in such a big crisis that it obliterates the value of standardisation. The risk of the EU collapsing is high enough to consider alternatives (your proposal), but not high enough to affect our decision making (don't switch from In to Out on the assumption thar it will happen)
Pushing the idea of single global goods standards via the WTO is what we need to do..
Trade liberalisation by the WTO has failed - the action is all now in Regional Trade Agreements which is why we've had TPP and now TTIP. Getting agreement by all 170 members of the WTO is simply too difficult.
I think it's clear where the Government has been putting its efforts since the imposition of purdah.
Disgusting.
Dave's trying to win the referendum? What a cad and bounder!
You think it's disgusting for Leave to try and win it using their strongest card of immigration.
Glasshouses. Stones.
No. You keep on talking about immigration. I think it's disgusting the way supporters of Turkish membership of the EU, like Boris, Gove etc have behaved.
I called Dave out on similar behaviour over Khan, so I'm consistent.
I don't talk about immigration. But free movement is a big issue for people in the Uk and its legitimate to point out where the EU is planning future expansion and the potential numbers involved, particularly for a once in a generation vote.
But, it's ok; I take your broader point: Dave and George can do whatever they like to win this referendum, vote Leave can't.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Lol - is that why there's not a single illegal in the UK right now?
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
snip
snip
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Welcome to PB.
Thank you! I've been lurking for 10 years+ and the referendum debate is driving me insane!! Hence the slightly bad tempered first post, for which my apologies... Just two weeks til it's all over - what will we all do then?
Ha! It's certainly got things going in a way I never expected. I'm news-ed out today and watching pulp TV for light relief.
I'm watching the DOTA 2 Manila Major while watching TSE trolling the board on t'other screen .
I'm on Ramsey's Kitchen Nighmares now. Yesterday's Kyle was eye-boggling. Mum had £400 stolen - it was donated by local community for her dead son's gravestone. Her other sons accused an old lag of this appalling crime - and all three did the lie detector... And it was them!!
Mum confessed that she'd secretly feared it was them all along, and wanted her worst fears confirmed. How the other half lives - and volunteers for it on TV!
I think it's clear where the Government has been putting its efforts since the imposition of purdah.
Disgusting.
Dave's trying to win the referendum? What a cad and bounder!
This should be about the future of the country, not what is best for Dave's political career and "legacy" or even the Conservative party.
If the arguments to Remain were sufficiently strong, he wouldn't need to try his best to rig the referendum in his favour (£9million on Remain leaflets, campaigning whilst Leave ministers were gagged, rushed referendum to avoid "unhelpful" scenes in the Med and Southern Europe over the summer, etc).
It is probably hard for you to understand if you haven't been there, but once you have crossed the Rubicon and turned away from Cameron it is hard to imagine oneself ever returning to that fold. I voted Conservative in every election bar the last one since I turned 18 (20 years ago now) and used to defend Cameron and Osborne (including on here, when I used to post more frequently a few years ago). These days, as I regard from a distance Cameron's ever-shrinking grouping of fans, I think I know how tim must have felt when he went on (and on and on) about "PBTories".
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
snip
snip
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Welcome to PB.
Thank you! I've been lurking for 10 years+ and the referendum debate is driving me insane!! Hence the slightly bad tempered first post, for which my apologies... Just two weeks til it's all over - what will we all do then?
Ha! It's certainly got things going in a way I never expected. I'm news-ed out today and watching pulp TV for light relief.
I'm watching the DOTA 2 Manila Major while watching TSE trolling the board on t'other screen .
I'm on Ramsey's Kitchen Nighmares now. Yesterday's Kyle was eye-boggling. Mum had £400 stolen - it was donated by local community for her dead son's gravestone. Her other sons accused an old lag of this appalling crime - and all three did the lie detector... And it was them!!
Mum confessed that she'd secretly feared it was them all along, and wanted her worst fears confirmed. How the other half lives - and volunteers for it on TV!
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Lol - is that why there's not a single illegal in the UK right now?
Illegal employment could well increase on Brexit if we restrict the rights to work for, say Romanians...
Is Grant Shapps coming out for Remain a bigger event than Eddie Izzard ?
Sorry, I can't get past all the John Nott headlines to find out...
John Nott falls into the category headed, "I thought he was dead". You'd have to be around 50 at a minimum to have any real knowledge of him (and then you'll remember him for his Sandys-esque defence review)..
I think it's clear where the Government has been putting its efforts since the imposition of purdah.
Disgusting.
Dave's trying to win the referendum? What a cad and bounder!
PB is a very strange world these days - any hint at support for Remain and you are: unprincipled/traitorous/sad/evil/conspirator/the devil incarnate/duplicitous/stupid.........
The Remain % in NI could be around 80%. In GB it could be close to 50%.
If in GB it's 49 point something %, then the overall figure will be above 50% and NI will have caused Britain to stay in the EU. This isn't fanciful - it could easily be what happens.
That would be a remarkable result, given that whereas the Irish border is more or less completely open, the same is NOT true for travellers between GB and NI.
You need to show photo ID and people driving vans are quite often searched using metal detectors, as are their vehicles, on arrival on one side of the water or the other, even though all they have done is travel within a sovereign country without crossing any international borders.
NI people who are strongly in favour of the openness of the international border in Ireland but who aren't so bothered about pseudo-border checks on people travelling between NI and GB should (but mostly don't) favour a united Ireland. Then they'd get what they want (the line on the ground that they care about most would be as they want it - open) and GB people would get what they want (GB borders would not be open).
Ha! It's certainly got things going in a way I never expected. I'm news-ed out today and watching pulp TV for light relief.
Miss Plato, did you see that article the Telegraph last week that suggested couples were having less sex because they spend so much time watching box sets on the television? My immediate reactions was, "Golly, how boring must your sex life be if watching telly is seen as a better alternative?"
Its like angling. One can see blokes, and it is overwhelmingly men, sitting in the rain by the side of a canal staring for hours at a float. How awful and boring must their home/social life be for that to be a great way of passing the time?
So true! I always thought of angling as the poor weather substitute for having a nice shed/man cave.
John Nott falls into the category headed, "I thought he was dead". You'd have to be around 50 at a minimum to have any real knowledge of him (and then you'll remember him for his Sandys-esque defence review)..
Indeed, but last night we were assured he was a bigger story than Sarah Wollaston
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Lol - is that why there's not a single illegal in the UK right now?
Illegal employment could well increase on Brexit if we restrict the rights to work for, say Romanians...
There will be no jobs, illegal or otherwise, after a Brexit. The economy will curl up into a ball and roll over to Frankfurt. You need to keep up with the messaging.
those who said leavers were cynical about Wollaston earlier have at least been proven wrong now. Clearly with Shapps remaining too this has been a calculated play by remain to keep the defections in the headlines.
Err - because Woolaston and Shapps have long been known to be co-conspirators? or alternatively you don't like their decision?
To some extent there was a similar competition earlier between EFTA and the EEC, which the EEC won comprehensively.
I think your idea is an interesting one, with the caveat that it is not a reason to vote Out. There is unlikely to be any demand for an alternative to the EU any time soon. However if you are voting Out anyway, it's a good long term thing to do.
Standardisation has a value, which is why the EU has developed as it has. For the same there aren't any alternative organisations to the UN and NATO. The business case for the alternative arrangement is that the EU is in such a big crisis that it obliterates the value of standardisation. The risk of the EU collapsing is high enough to consider alternatives (your proposal), but not high enough to affect our decision making (don't switch from In to Out on the assumption thar it will happen)
Pushing the idea of single global goods standards via the WTO is what we need to do. Sector by sector we need to work on breaking down NTBs and introducing minimum export standards for WTO trade. Much better than regional trade deals.
As for EFTA, the landscape has changed, there is now a two speed EU, the EMU and non-EMU nations. Having a one size fits all solution to two groups of countries with different agendas and economies makes no sense.
Thanks. If there is a two speed EU wouldn't that remove some of the stresses in the EU and make alternatives less attractive? And also counteract claims that remaining in the EU implies greater integration down the line?
That's entirely the problem. The reality is a two speed EU, but the Eurocrats will never recognise that reality and continue to push their one size fits all solutions. We slow down the very integration that the EMU needs because it would be detrimental to our nation to allow it, yet that also hurts the EMU nation who do need to move to Eurobonds, fiscal union/transfers and eventually a single EU budget and taxation model. None of that is right for the UK and yet we have a veto over all of those measures which means they will never be implemented while we are in the EU. It is better for us to leave and get out of their way and they can get out of our way.
Is Grant Shapps coming out for Remain a bigger event than Eddie Izzard ?
Sorry, I can't get past all the John Nott headlines to find out...
John Nott falls into the category headed, "I thought he was dead". You'd have to be around 50 at a minimum to have any real knowledge of him (and then you'll remember him for his Sandys-esque defence review)..
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Lol - is that why there's not a single illegal in the UK right now?
That's not my point. My point is about the Irish border. I guess there wouldn't need to be border controls along the land border between the UK and Ireland because, even if there were passport controls, a Romanian who intended to overstay his visa could just cross that land border legitimately anyway. So border controls would be useless, and therefore there's no point having them because they'd just inconvenience everyone for no good reason.
Serious question do you think Vote Leave have a campaign plan or not. Gove promised more on their plans for the economy this week , has anybody heard any more about this. Also they don't seem to have a spokesperson to rebut the media when under attack. Perhaps I am missing something. I want leave to win but they really need to up their game in the next two weeks
From Day One, the Remain campaign is far better organised and clearly working to a "Grid". Leave seems more like an episode of TFI Friday, planned by two blokes in a pub the afternoon before the show.
Then tweeting very crossly late in the evening about another establishment conspiracy
I think it's clear where the Government has been putting its efforts since the imposition of purdah.
Disgusting.
Dave's trying to win the referendum? What a cad and bounder!
This should be about the future of the country, not what is best for Dave's political career and "legacy" or even the Conservative party.
If the arguments to Remain were sufficiently strong, he wouldn't need to try his best to rig the referendum in his favour (£9million on Remain leaflets, campaigning whilst Leave ministers were gagged, rushed referendum to avoid "unhelpful" scenes in the Med and Southern Europe over the summer, etc).
It is probably hard for you to understand if you haven't been there, but once you have crossed the Rubicon and turned away from Cameron it is hard to imagine oneself ever returning to that fold. I voted Conservative in every election bar the last one since I turned 18 (20 years ago now) and used to defend Cameron and Osborne (including on here, when I used to post more frequently a few years ago). These days, as I regard from a distance Cameron's ever-shrinking grouping of fans, I think I know how tim must have felt when he went on (and on and on) about "PBTories".
The gulf is yawning, and as you note the dwindling number of Cameroons is dramatic.
John Nott falls into the category headed, "I thought he was dead". You'd have to be around 50 at a minimum to have any real knowledge of him (and then you'll remember him for his Sandys-esque defence review)..
Indeed, but last night we were assured he was a bigger story than Sarah Wollaston
It's increasingly difficult to keep track of what the Tories current position is.
AFAIK there are a baker's dozen of Tory MPs left to declare. I'd expect the vast majority of them to declare for Remain in the next two weeks, except Jesse Norman who has made a virtue of his neutrality and who I think may spoil his ballot.
Provides more opportunity for people to replace them as candidates at selection time.
Lol - Maomentum taking over the Tory party - welcome to the nicer politics of vote Leave.
Serious question do you think Vote Leave have a campaign plan or not. Gove promised more on their plans for the economy this week , has anybody heard any more about this. Also they don't seem to have a spokesperson to rebut the media when under attack. Perhaps I am missing something. I want leave to win but they really need to up their game in the next two weeks
From Day One, the Remain campaign is far better organised and clearly working to a "Grid". Leave seems more like an episode of TFI Friday, planned by two blokes in a pub the afternoon before the show.
Then tweeting very crossly late in the evening about another establishment conspiracy
If remain is so well organised why did their substantial polling lead vanish? It's been a poorly run campaign and now they're entering the phase where they feel the need to throw everything at leave and see what sticks.
The vision of border controls plays into the hands of those who have yet to realise the armed struggle is over,” wrote Orde. “Any step backwards is a really bad idea.”
EIRE may wish to follow us out but, if not, it may be free movement is retained for the island of Ireland but with border controls for the mainland.
A practical solution will be found, they always are.
The Common Travel Area will be maintained, because:
(a) it would have pretty severe economic consequences on the border communities and (b) it would be extremely expensive to police
Even during the height of the Troubles, when hundreds of British people were being killed every year, the border was kept open. That will not change post-Brexit as Ireland will not join Schengen.
There have been occasions where the UK government has considered suspending the arrangement - but obviously they never did so. I too think it is unlikely after Brexit, which is going to be chaotic enough without adding further to the disruption
So I'm, say, a Romanian who fancies moving to London after Brexit, but doesn't have the points to pass the strict immigration criteria. What do I do?
I catch a plane from Bucharest to Dublin, flashing my Romanian EU passport as I stroll through Dublin Airport customs. Then I take a bus to Belfast, smiling as the bus drives through the open border between Eire and Northern Ireland. After that, it's just an internal UK flight from Belfast to Heathrow, with no passport required. Home and dry.
What's to prevent UK immigration from being circumvented in this way?
It's not worth the effort, he'd just catch a plane to London, where he'd come in as a tourist. We currently offer visa free tourism to the UK from nationals of El Salvador for Christ's sake - there's no reason he couldn't come in as a tourist.
What he wouldn't be able to get is an automatic work permit, and therefore a job. So nobody would employ him.
Fair enough. That's sort of how my German father-in-law got out of the former East Germany; he pretended to be an Argentinian tourist (with a forged passport) on his way home.
I can see that it is the lack of paperwork once in the UK, rather than actual physical exclusion from the UK that would be the problem for our hypothetical Romanian. Nevertheless, there will surely be some problems with having an open border separating two countries with different immigration policies.
Comments
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-09/sarah-wollaston-tells-itv-news-other-mps-considering-defecting-from-vote-leave/
Andrew Mitchell, Grant Shapps, Tracey Crouch, Jackie Doyle-Price, James Heappey, Pauline Latham, Phillip Lee, Charlotte Leslie, Huw Merriman, Wendy Morton, Caroline Nokes, Mary Robinson, David Tredennick, Jessie Norman [not declaring]
Downing Street will be offering everything under the sun to the bigger names to get them on the Remain side. Keep an eye on Mitchell…
http://order-order.com/2016/06/09/rumour-shapps-to-declare-for-remain/
It;s pretty well known on PB I live in Warwickshire and work in the Midlands most of my family still live in Ireland both sides of the border and I go there regularly.
As for how nationalists will react they'll be pissed off, but imo not so pissed off that they'll want another 30 years of trashing the place.
I think your idea is an interesting one, with the caveat that it is not a reason to vote Out. There is unlikely to be any demand for an alternative to the EU any time soon. However if you are voting Out anyway, it's a good long term thing to do.
Standardisation has a value, which is why the EU has developed as it has. For the same there aren't any alternative organisations to the UN and NATO. The business case for the alternative arrangement is that the EU is in such a big crisis that it obliterates the value of standardisation. The risk of the EU collapsing is high enough to consider alternatives (your proposal), but not high enough to affect our decision making (don't switch from In to Out on the assumption thar it will happen)
Perhaps because they didn't feel the public cared that much for them to try too hard. If there had been more of an impetus, I'm sure they would have tried harder.
Look at now - we only have a referendum because UKIP grew in size and forced one on Dave.
It comes back to my point that many Leavers are more disappointed with the actions or inactions of British politicians than they are with the EU.
I note all the presumed shifters are Conservative. That should help build trust in the party of principle.
This referendum really has shredded reputations.
Disgusting.
I disagree about the "not so pissed off" bit, though. Didn't the Met just increase the security alert for Irish terrorism. As you will know, and as your family will attest, the war is not over for those who are fighting it, no matter how many battles they lose, and the reimposition of border controls would act as a strong recruiting sergeant.
As for EFTA, the landscape has changed, there is now a two speed EU, the EMU and non-EMU nations. Having a one size fits all solution to two groups of countries with different agendas and economies makes no sense.
Where's tim when you need him ?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/28/grant-shapps-resigns-over-bullying-scandal
"Grant Shapps, a former Tory chairman, has resigned from the government in disgrace in the wake of revelations that he had been warned about bullying in the party before the death of one of its young activists."
Glasshouses. Stones.
I called Dave out on similar behaviour over Khan, so I'm consistent.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3631991/Frankly-lot-scared-George-Osborne-denies-scaremongering-Brexit-risks-s-confronted-live-TV-claims-voters-face-huge-losses.html
It's fair to say that Grant Shapps isn't going to be organising our battle bus tour #EUref
PIRA and the associated organisations, on both sides, were never fighting a war, Criminal gangsterism, aimed as much at self enrichment and securing control over certain communities as anything else, yes, but a war it certainly was not.
It would certainly help explain the failure of the more right wing Tory leaders since 1997 and the fact that it took a very centrist Tory leadership to just about get a majority against a very weak Labour party nearly 20 years later.
Is Grant Shapps coming out for Remain a bigger event than Eddie Izzard ?
Who can tell us what it all means.
Scott get pasting quick !
That does suggest co-ordination to me.
Its like angling. One can see blokes, and it is overwhelmingly men, sitting in the rain by the side of a canal staring for hours at a float. How awful and boring must their home/social life be for that to be a great way of passing the time?
Wouldn't bet against one later tonight to keep it bubbling.
But, it's ok; I take your broader point: Dave and George can do whatever they like to win this referendum, vote Leave can't.
Sarah Woolaston I'll perhaps naively give the benefit of the doubt to, for now.
Michael Green OTOH... - Mind you Boris' decision to back leave was 100% about his career...
Myself and Mr Meeks are on the same post tally.
Bad news all round for PBers.
in other news the remain line on the economy isn't getting through
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/brexit-living-standards-uk-ipsos-mori?CMP=twt_gu
I'm on Ramsey's Kitchen Nighmares now. Yesterday's Kyle was eye-boggling. Mum had £400 stolen - it was donated by local community for her dead son's gravestone. Her other sons accused an old lag of this appalling crime - and all three did the lie detector... And it was them!!
Mum confessed that she'd secretly feared it was them all along, and wanted her worst fears confirmed. How the other half lives - and volunteers for it on TV!
If the arguments to Remain were sufficiently strong, he wouldn't need to try his best to rig the referendum in his favour (£9million on Remain leaflets, campaigning whilst Leave ministers were gagged, rushed referendum to avoid "unhelpful" scenes in the Med and Southern Europe over the summer, etc).
It is probably hard for you to understand if you haven't been there, but once you have crossed the Rubicon and turned away from Cameron it is hard to imagine oneself ever returning to that fold. I voted Conservative in every election bar the last one since I turned 18 (20 years ago now) and used to defend Cameron and Osborne (including on here, when I used to post more frequently a few years ago). These days, as I regard from a distance Cameron's ever-shrinking grouping of fans, I think I know how tim must have felt when he went on (and on and on) about "PBTories".
Gordon Ramsey or Ramsey Bolton ?
If in GB it's 49 point something %, then the overall figure will be above 50% and NI will have caused Britain to stay in the EU. This isn't fanciful - it could easily be what happens.
That would be a remarkable result, given that whereas the Irish border is more or less completely open, the same is NOT true for travellers between GB and NI.
You need to show photo ID and people driving vans are quite often searched using metal detectors, as are their vehicles, on arrival on one side of the water or the other, even though all they have done is travel within a sovereign country without crossing any international borders.
NI people who are strongly in favour of the openness of the international border in Ireland but who aren't so bothered about pseudo-border checks on people travelling between NI and GB should (but mostly don't) favour a united Ireland. Then they'd get what they want (the line on the ground that they care about most would be as they want it - open) and GB people would get what they want (GB borders would not be open).
So true! I always thought of angling as the poor weather substitute for having a nice shed/man cave.
No real details, but which local authorities have fouled up?
That could have a real impact on the outcome.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-referendums/electoral-commission-update-on-non-eligible-eu-citizen-voters
Eng 1.5 on Betfair now, SL were 36 this morning. Another good day's betting
I can see that it is the lack of paperwork once in the UK, rather than actual physical exclusion from the UK that would be the problem for our hypothetical Romanian. Nevertheless, there will surely be some problems with having an open border separating two countries with different immigration policies.