My goodness, that was truly vicious from John Major. Also, no interruptions from Marr. Hope Boris is allowed the same courtesy - lol!
The OTT attacks from Major, Clarke and Hezza all smack of desperation. I find them very unappealing. It just reinforces the whole negative tone of Remain.
BBC Today programme some weeks ago actually gave Major time on air for what amounted to a speech attacking Brexit. Like thought for the day. In addition to a soft-soap interview. I really couldn't believe what I was hearing.
But the more they do it, the more voters see the Establishment circling the wagons - and the better the polls get for Leave.
Remain has horrible strategy issues.
It's more servings of egg and chips - on different coloured plates. Today, Osborne's claiming mortgages will go up by £120pcm.
It's the same old fear riff that hasn't worked over the last 85 days - the concept of ever-diminishing returns clearly hasn't dawned on them.
I do hope they carry on in the same vein. Talk about a one-note campaign.
We all know that at some point, mortgage rates are going to rise because interest rates are going to rise. Interest rates have been on life-support levels for getting on for a decade now. The irony is that Remain are telling us that their stewardship of the economy will get us back to the point where a healthy economy means we can resume normal interest rates and, er, cause mortgages to rise. Whereas Leave will trash the economy, meaning the life-support levels of interest rates will stay, meaning that, er, mortgages won't go up.
They really haven't thought this through at all, have they?
Bang on.
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual. I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
And the EU got £8.5 billion net from the UK (in 2015), while a country as populous as like India got only £279 million (2015). That's only 23p per Indian.
Edmundintokyo but Cameron came away with nothing. Zero to offer. Merkel dominates the EU to an unprecedented extent. Had the will existed in Berlin to strike a deal then a deal would have been struck. Instead they tried to call our bluff. Again.
The EU is doing its own superstate thing. A cursory glance at any EU document will confirm this.
Dave, however, achieved a formal opt-out of ever closer union, no discrimination between and against EZ/non-EZ and exemption from banking union. He didn't get much on immigration, and he got some fluff on competitiveness. But at least on PB, no one has a problem with EU immigration, do they?
He has not changed the EU, he has fundamentally enshrined the UK's special status within, or even perhaps if you prefer alongside the EU.
That's hardly nothing.
All piss and wind. He came back with nothing.
If that is the limit of your insight I'm sure you will enjoy a UK outside the EU.
Topping , what do you believe he came back with , I could not see even a fig leaf, interested to know your thoughts.
@BethRigby: Gove on Farage's Cologne attack warning "He's made those remarks, I haven't made remarks like that & I won't make remarks like that" #peston
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I note that the journalist who wrote that story coincidently has an exclusive interview with Cameron in the same edition.
Fancy That!
So are you saying that the Mail On Sunday was lying about the racists it has uncovered in the Leave campaign?
I don't think a handful of EDL/NF/Britain First members delivering leaflets for Vote Leave makes much difference. There are some pretty unsavoury people campaigning for Remain (as well as plenty of decent people).
@BBCNormanS: Michael Gove says will bring migration down to tens of thousands after Brexit @pestononsunday
The breadth of the Leave campaign is a wonder to behold
Quite. What seems more likely.....mortgages rising by 100 a month or gangs of migrant rapists rampaging through the streets of market towns in middle England. And stay is project fear?
And the EU got £8.5 billion net from the UK (in 2015), while a country as populous as like India got only £279 million (2015). That's only 23p per Indian.
Are you really comparing membership of the largest free market on the planet with our International aid and development budget?
Edmundintokyo but Cameron came away with nothing. Zero to offer. Merkel dominates the EU to an unprecedented extent. Had the will existed in Berlin to strike a deal then a deal would have been struck. Instead they tried to call our bluff. Again.
The EU is doing its own superstate thing. A cursory glance at any EU document will confirm this.
Dave, however, achieved a formal opt-out of ever closer union, no discrimination between and against EZ/non-EZ and exemption from banking union. He didn't get much on immigration, and he got some fluff on competitiveness. But at least on PB, no one has a problem with EU immigration, do they?
He has not changed the EU, he has fundamentally enshrined the UK's special status within, or even perhaps if you prefer alongside the EU.
That's hardly nothing.
All piss and wind. He came back with nothing.
If that is the limit of your insight I'm sure you will enjoy a UK outside the EU.
I think part of the problem Remain is suffering is that they genuinely thought that the Renegotiation package would be enough to keep a lot of fence-sitters in the Remain camp. That is was met with near universal ridicule - especially when Cameron and Osborne tried to sell it as the riches of King Solomon's Mines - has left their campaign like a two legged stool.
And since then, they have tried to polish that stool with pestilence and war. With hilarious results...
I don't see any evidence for that. They optimised for the general election, then what else could they do? They won't support Leave because they sincerely believe it'll fuck the economy, and saying "We admit we got nothing but we support Remain anyhow" would have made they look even stupider than they look holding this unconvincing line about how much they won.
Bu Cameron is now looking at the worst possible result if he believes that - Brexit, with Cameron and Osborne replaced by "that clown Boris". At least if he had recommended Leave, he could have been in control of the process to minimise the fucking of the economy.
If he loses then yes, he'd have been better backing leave and staying in control of the process, but judging by the current betting odds, he probably won't lose. Of course he might, but the calculation seems sensible.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I doubt very much that the rest of the press have ignored it, very naive to think other papers wont now be digging around for stuff to embarrass the Leave campaign. I'd wait to see what else comes out before you dismiss it.
Do you have any evidence that GCHQ were behind the stories on Farage or is that just another wild Leave conspiracy theory ?
Farage comments this morning are seriously out of order and will be an embarrassment to Vote Leave.
That's like saying Jeremy Corbyn's comments will be an embarrassment to the Conservative Party.
There's a reason Farage isn't even a member let alone a leader of Vote Leave. It is a rival organisation that has nothing to do with him.
You can say that but the voter sees him as a member of the leave campaign
Perhaps the conventional wisdom that Nigel Farage turns voters away from Leave is wrong (he enjoys better ratings than most party leaders),
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual.
Perhaps it's failing because people on the whole don't perceive the downside. On the whole the crisis measures since 2008 have worked to stabilise the economy, and while we do have an ongoing cost of living crisis with housing, people may think that's as bad as it gets so we might as well risk it.
It may be similar to 1997 where a relatively strong economy meant that the Tories familiar fear campaign about Labour stopped working.
John Major appears to be extracting his revenge on the Bastards live on Marr right now
The man is a fool... Lead his party to its worst defeat since the Duke Of Wellington, presided over a house repossession crisis across Middle England, etc.
Or alternatively got the most votes ever in a general election and then got shafted by the ill disciplined loons on the right of his party.......who have since decided in their infinite wisdom to do the same to the only Tory party leader to gain a majority since. And with barely a year passed since that majority was won. Almost makes one question who the fools are doesn't it?
Major shafted himself on the ERM.
That he has never taken responsibility for that but bitterly tried to blame people not in his government for the failings of his government show the true character of the man.
I used to think that Conservatives believed in taking responsibility for your own actions.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa 32m32 minutes ago Major's disastrous ERM policy ruined millions of lives; he cheated on his wife. How dare he accuse Leave campaign of deceit & dishonesty!
The legacy of Back to Basics...
Plato I have never seen John Major so animated.
Not even in Spitting Image???
No Sunil even on spitting image did he get that angry, he just shuffled peas from my memory and was very grey.
I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
As a small businessman myself I don't really get the frustration. There really isn't any onerous burden or red-tape getting in my way.
I do disagree with a lot of Osborne's tendencies towards Gordon Brown style policies but I'm sure a large part of that is because of Treasury overreach.
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual.
Perhaps it's failing because people on the whole don't perceive the downside. On the whole the crisis measures since 2008 have worked to stabilise the economy, and while we do have an ongoing cost of living crisis with housing, people may think that's as bad as it gets so we might as well risk it.
It may be similar to 1997 where a relatively strong economy meant that the Tories familiar fear campaign about Labour stopped working.
Partly perception, but partly for reality.
If you're on a low wage and can't afford an awful lot, there is very little to lose and an awful lot of pride to gain in independence. As Scotland has proved.
The difference this time is that Pensioners are on the whole keen too.
Brexit if you can't afford anything else, and Brexit if you consider it a price worth paying. A coherent electoral coalition for a referendum. Something Remain are struggling to muster at the moment.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I note that the journalist who wrote that story coincidently has an exclusive interview with Cameron in the same edition.
Fancy That!
So are you saying that the Mail On Sunday was lying about the racists it has uncovered in the Leave campaign?
I don't think a handful of EDL/NF/Britain First members delivering leaflets for Vote Leave makes much difference. There are some pretty unsavoury people campaigning for Remain (as well as plenty of decent people).
Anyone can buy leaflets off of Vote Leave's website. To try and suggest this is similar to Labour's anti-Semitic members is ridiculous. Labour have salaried employees who are meant to vet members and even when they are exposed as being vile anti-Semites they only get a temporary ban.
And the EU got £8.5 billion net from the UK (in 2015), while a country as populous as like India got only £279 million (2015). That's only 23p per Indian.
Are you really comparing membership of the largest free market on the planet with our International aid and development budget?
That is unworthy, even for you.
£8.5 billion is roughly 30 times £279 million, no?
Per capita about £17 (EU contribution, net) v. 23p - that's 74 times!
I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
As a small businessman myself I don't really get the frustration. There really isn't any onerous burden red-tape getting in my way.
I do disagree with a lot of Osborne's tendencies towards Gordon Brown style policies but I'm sure a large part of that is because of Treasury overreach.
Auto enrollment pensions? Threat of quarterly accounts filing? Shared maternity leave? Not to mention the removal of the difference in Corp tax for small vs big business.
Edmundintokyo but Cameron came away with nothing. Zero to offer. Merkel dominates the EU to an unprecedented extent. Had the will existed in Berlin to strike a deal then a deal would have been struck. Instead they tried to call our bluff. Again.
The EU is doing its own superstate thing. A cursory glance at any EU document will confirm this.
That's hardly nothing.
All piss and wind. He came back with nothing.
If that is the limit of your insight I'm sure you will enjoy a UK outside the EU.
And since then, they have tried to polish that stool with pestilence and war. With hilarious results...
I don't see any evidence for that. They optimised for the general election, then what else could they do? They won't support Leave because they sincerely believe it'll fuck the economy, and saying "We admit we got nothing but we support Remain anyhow" would have made they look even stupider than they look holding this unconvincing line about how much they won.
Bu Cameron is now looking at the worst possible result if he believes that - Brexit, with Cameron and Osborne replaced by "that clown Boris". At least if he had recommended Leave, he could have been in control of the process to minimise the fucking of the economy.
If he loses then yes, he'd have been better backing leave and staying in control of the process, but judging by the current betting odds, he probably won't lose. Of course he might, but the calculation seems sensible.
Whether or not Cameron loses the Referendum, he has lost his party and I would suggest, with a large chunk of the wider electorate he has lost his legacy, the way he has overplayed his hand.
Voters don't like losers (hello Neil, hello Ed....). But they really dislike those who scream and scream until they are sick. During this Referendum campaign, David Cameron has transformed into Violet Elizabeth Bott.
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
Bastards took down John Major's government
And the same bastards are trying to do the same to Cameron
And in both cases you blame the party leader who won the election...
Aye, right.
John Major took down his own government. The ERM debacle enraged Conservative voters. If you want to know why the the Conservatives lost seats like Southgate, Hendon, Brent North on 18% swings, that's the reason.
My goodness, that was truly vicious from John Major. Also, no interruptions from Marr. Hope Boris is allowed the same courtesy - lol!
The OTT attacks from Major, Clarke and Hezza all smack of desperation. I find them very unappealing. It just reinforces the whole negative tone of Remain.
BBC Today programme some weeks ago actually gave Major time on air for what amounted to a speech attacking Brexit. Like thought for the day. In addition to a soft-soap interview. I really couldn't believe what I was hearing.
But the more they do it, the more voters see the Establishment circling the wagons - and the better the polls get for Leave.
Remain has horrible strategy issues.
It's more servings of egg and chips - on different coloured plates. Today, Osborne's claiming mortgages will go up by £120pcm.
It's the same old fear riff that hasn't worked over the last 85 days - the concept of ever-diminishing returns clearly hasn't dawned on them.
I do hope they carry on in the same vein. Talk about a one-note campaign.
We all know that at some point, mortgage rates are going to rise because interest rates are going to rise. Interest rates have been on life-support levels for getting on for a decade now. The irony is that Remain are telling us that their stewardship of the economy will get us back to the point where a healthy economy means we can resume normal interest rates and, er, cause mortgages to rise. Whereas Leave will trash the economy, meaning the life-support levels of interest rates will stay, meaning that, er, mortgages won't go up.
They really haven't thought this through at all, have they?
Bang on.
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual. I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
Small businesses are an inconvenience to the corporate state.
Who do you think Cameron and Osborne prefer speaking with - fatcats in the City or small businessmen in medium sized towns ?
I'm not sure why commentators and punters are so up in arms over Trump's NATO remarks? The GOP have always contained a strong isolationist strand so it's quite consistent. That doesn't mean it's right. It just shouldn't be a huge surprise.
@robowers: Important context re more tweets mentioning Leave - people who tweet about Leave are more likely to tweet more often https://t.co/RyThnwJ8jQ
@robowers: More tweets doesn't necessarily = more supporters. Can be tweets criticising that side's policies. Just means that side driving conversation
BBC R5 Pienaar show usual bias for REMAIN. Two hacks on. D. Hodges (exLabour but for REMAIN) MailonSunday (REMAIN) and Lucy Fisher (Labour Guardian REMAIN).
I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
As a small businessman myself I don't really get the frustration. There really isn't any onerous burden red-tape getting in my way.
I do disagree with a lot of Osborne's tendencies towards Gordon Brown style policies but I'm sure a large part of that is because of Treasury overreach.
Auto enrollment pensions? Threat of quarterly accounts filing? Shared maternity leave? Not to mention the removal of the difference in Corp tax for small vs big business.
IT and shared services make it a lot cheaper to comply with legislation like that than it would have been in the past, and the corporation tax change is just a simplification that harmonises the rate down.
Mr. Midwinter, Cameron could've handled his party a lot better.
The manner of IDS' resignation and his utterances immediately afterwards were foolish and strong indication that the Quiet Man lacks perceptiveness.
Cameron's arrogance, complacency and taking people for fools over his mighty renegotiation are the key driving force of his party problems, though.
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
It would seem that winning an election outright goes to the head of modern Tory leaders....
Major led the Conservative party to one of its worst defeats ever. Not the man to trust for advice on what is best for the Conservative party, unless you want to suffer a similar scale of defeat.
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
Bastards took down John Major's government
And the same bastards are trying to do the same to Cameron
And in both cases you blame the party leader who won the election...
Aye, right.
John Major took down his own government. The ERM debacle enraged Conservative voters. If you want to know why the the Conservatives lost seats like Southgate, Hendon, Brent North on 18% swings, that's the reason.
You're wasting your time debating with a CCHQbot.
The amusing thing is that if Leave win Scott_Paste will be tweeting and bleating on behalf of PM Gove or PM Boris.
The working age voted Leave in spite of all the same warnings and when starting from much further behind in the referendum than EU Leave were.
And as we know now, all the warnings were correct. A Yes vote would have been catastrophic for Scotland. Let us hope that this time the warnings are wrong.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I note that the journalist who wrote that story coincidently has an exclusive interview with Cameron in the same edition.
Fancy That!
So are you saying that the Mail On Sunday was lying about the racists it has uncovered in the Leave campaign?
I don't think a handful of EDL/NF/Britain First members delivering leaflets for Vote Leave makes much difference. There are some pretty unsavoury people campaigning for Remain (as well as plenty of decent people).
Yes I know a Lib Dem delivering leaflets for LEAVE.
I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
As a small businessman myself I don't really get the frustration. There really isn't any onerous burden red-tape getting in my way.
I do disagree with a lot of Osborne's tendencies towards Gordon Brown style policies but I'm sure a large part of that is because of Treasury overreach.
Auto enrollment pensions? Threat of quarterly accounts filing? Shared maternity leave? Not to mention the removal of the difference in Corp tax for small vs big business.
IT and shared services make it a lot cheaper to comply with legislation like that than it would have been in the past, and the corporation tax change is just a simplification that harmonises the rate down.
Not having the legislation or exempting small businesses from it makes it far simpler and cheaper.
Although I'm not sure the old dividend set up was especially fair, my pay and the pay of many company directors is going down because of the Brownian fiddling with these rules. I was actually better off tax wise under Darling as chancellor, to be honest.
John Major appears to be extracting his revenge on the Bastards live on Marr right now
The man is a fool... Lead his party to its worst defeat since the Duke Of Wellington, presided over a house repossession crisis across Middle England, etc.
Or alternatively got the most votes ever in a general election and then got shafted by the ill disciplined loons on the right of his party.......who have since decided in their infinite wisdom to do the same to the only Tory party leader to gain a majority since. And with barely a year passed since that majority was won. Almost makes one question who the fools are doesn't it?
Major shafted himself on the ERM.
That he has never taken responsibility for that but bitterly tried to blame people not in his government for the failings of his government show the true character of the man.
I used to think that Conservatives believed in taking responsibility for your own actions.
John Major proves otherwise.
True Major never took responsibility for the ERM debacle. He took us in as Chancellor and remained there to the end as PM. He should have resigned as PM when we withdrew from the ERM. Alas he lacked principles.
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual.
..... It may be similar to 1997 where a relatively strong economy meant that the Tories familiar fear campaign about Labour stopped working.
Perhaps it needs to have as its front men, people (Cameron and Osborne), less trusted than their opponents (Boris and IDS)?
Mr. Midwinter, Cameron could've handled his party a lot better.
The manner of IDS' resignation and his utterances immediately afterwards were foolish and strong indication that the Quiet Man lacks perceptiveness.
Cameron's arrogance, complacency and taking people for fools over his mighty renegotiation are the key driving force of his party problems, though.
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
It would seem that winning an election outright goes to the head of modern Tory leaders....
It appears to me that winning a majority goes to the head of the crazies who wouldn't be anywhere near power without Cameron as leader. The bloke barely had time to even attempt to mismanage his party before the IDS toys flew out of the pram. And Mr Dancer as a historian surely you can see the importance of learning from previous mistakes. Leave make many salient points. Its the manner in which they choose to do so and the personalities of its proponents which is so off-putting.
My goodness, that was truly vicious from John Major. Also, no interruptions from Marr. Hope Boris is allowed the same courtesy - lol!
The OTT attacks from Major, Clarke and Hezza all smack of desperation. I find them very unappealing. It just reinforces the whole negative tone of Remain.
BBC Today programme some weeks ago actually gave Major time on air for what amounted to a speech attacking Brexit. Like thought for the day. In addition to a soft-soap interview. I really couldn't believe what I was hearing.
But the more they do it, the more voters see the Establishment circling the wagons - and the better the polls get for Leave.
Remain has horrible strategy issues.
It's more servings of egg and chips - on different coloured plates. Today, Osborne's claiming mortgages will go up by £120pcm.
It's the same old fear riff that hasn't worked over the last 85 days - the concept of ever-diminishing returns clearly hasn't dawned on them.
I do hope they carry on in the same vein. Talk about a one-note campaign.
We all know that at some point, mortgage rates are going to rise because interest rates are going to rise. Interest rates have been on life-support levels for getting on for a decade now. The irony is that Remain are telling us that their stewardship of the economy will get us back to the point where a healthy economy means we can resume normal interest rates and, er, cause mortgages to rise. Whereas Leave will trash the economy, meaning the life-support levels of interest rates will stay, meaning that, er, mortgages won't go up.
They really haven't thought this through at all, have they?
Bang on.
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual. I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
Mr. Midwinter, Cameron could've handled his party a lot better.
The manner of IDS' resignation and his utterances immediately afterwards were foolish and strong indication that the Quiet Man lacks perceptiveness.
Cameron's arrogance, complacency and taking people for fools over his mighty renegotiation are the key driving force of his party problems, though.
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
It would seem that winning an election outright goes to the head of modern Tory leaders....
It appears to me that winning a majority goes to the head of the crazies who wouldn't be anywhere near power without Cameron as leader. The bloke barely had time to even attempt to mismanage his party before the IDS toys flew out of the pram. And Mr Dancer as a historian surely you can see the importance of learning from previous mistakes. Leave make many salient points. Its the manner in which they choose to do so and the personalities of its proponents which is so off-putting.
Might be a valid argument if you thought cutting taxes for corporations at the same time as taking money from the disabled is a good idea and sensible politics.
It just isn't in any world other than George Osborne's.
Osborne is attempting to govern for Tory voters alone. And cocking that up too.
Poor strategy and failing to execute it effectively. Reminds me a bit of Remain.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I doubt very much that the rest of the press have ignored it, very naive to think other papers wont now be digging around for stuff to embarrass the Leave campaign. I'd wait to see what else comes out before you dismiss it.
Do you have any evidence that GCHQ were behind the stories on Farage or is that just another wild Leave conspiracy theory ?
Farage comments this morning are seriously out of order and will be an embarrassment to Vote Leave.
That's like saying Jeremy Corbyn's comments will be an embarrassment to the Conservative Party.
There's a reason Farage isn't even a member let alone a leader of Vote Leave. It is a rival organisation that has nothing to do with him.
You can say that but the voter sees him as a member of the leave campaign
Perhaps the conventional wisdom that Nigel Farage turns voters away from Leave is wrong (he enjoys better ratings than most party leaders),
He's been very effective on the campaign trail from what I've seen.
This Tory carnage is only going to get worse should Brexit go pear-shaped. It may actually kill the party off.
Do you really think that Southam ? The most successful party ever with FPTP at GE. Surely it would need a seismic shift to PR to do that, and I can not see that happening anytime soon.
My goodness, that was truly vicious from John Major. Also, no interruptions from Marr. Hope Boris is allowed the same courtesy - lol!
The OTT attacks from Major, Clarke and Hezza all smack of desperation. I find them very unappealing. It just reinforces the whole negative tone of Remain.
BBC Today programme some weeks ago actually gave Major time on air for what amounted to a speech attacking Brexit. Like thought for the day. In addition to a soft-soap interview. I really couldn't believe what I was hearing.
But the more they do it, the more voters see the Establishment circling the wagons - and the better the polls get for Leave.
Remain has horrible strategy issues.
It's more servings of egg and chips - on different coloured plates. Today, Osborne's claiming mortgages will go up by £120pcm.
It's the same old fear riff that hasn't worked over the last 85 days - the concept of ever-diminishing returns clearly hasn't dawned on them.
I do hope they carry on in the same vein. Talk about a one-note campaign.
We all know that at some point, mortgage rates are going to rise because interest rates are going to rise. Interest rates have been on life-support levels for getting on for a decade now. The irony is that Remain are telling us that their stewardship of the economy will get us back to the point where a healthy economy means we can resume normal interest rates and, er, cause mortgages to rise. Whereas Leave will trash the economy, meaning the life-support levels of interest rates will stay, meaning that, er, mortgages won't go up.
They really haven't thought this through at all, have they?
Bang on.
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual. I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
I'm hanging on for the Leadership vote.
Yep - although to be honest I'm hoping there is a Draft Gove movement followed by a coronation in the result of a Leave vote, or a Draft May followed by coronation in the result of a Remain vote. In short, Osborne needs to be on the back benches for the good of the party.
I was gutted when we lost the 92 election. I was much less gutted when we lost 2010- Miliband was never going to cut being PM, so thankfully we were saved that scenario. I was annoyed in 2010 and 2015 when Labour picked useless leaders. I was pretty sad when Bush triumphed in 2000 and 2004.
But, if we vote out on the 23rd June, this will eclipse all my political disappointments- it'll be like rolling them all up and whacking me in the face in a oner. It's catastrophically a scenario that is becoming all the more plausible by the day- John Major's risible appearance today only reinforced this.
I'm beginning to plan ahead. My wife is away the weekend after the vote, so I'll probably do what I did 24 years ago in 1992- score some decent gear and go on a humungous bender for three days, luckily this coincides with Glastonbury on the TV and the footie. I will not go anywhere near pbCOM threads.
The working age voted Leave in spite of all the same warnings and when starting from much further behind in the referendum than EU Leave were.
And as we know now, all the warnings were correct. A Yes vote would have been catastrophic for Scotland. Let us hope that this time the warnings are wrong.
I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
As a small businessman myself I don't really get the frustration. There really isn't any onerous burden red-tape getting in my way.
I do disagree with a lot of Osborne's tendencies towards Gordon Brown style policies but I'm sure a large part of that is because of Treasury overreach.
Auto enrollment pensions? Threat of quarterly accounts filing? Shared maternity leave? Not to mention the removal of the difference in Corp tax for small vs big business.
IT and shared services make it a lot cheaper to comply with legislation like that than it would have been in the past, and the corporation tax change is just a simplification that harmonises the rate down.
Not having the legislation or exempting small businesses from it makes it far simpler and cheaper.
Although I'm not sure the old dividend set up was especially fair, my pay and the pay of many company directors is going down because of the Brownian fiddling with these rules. I was actually better off tax wise under Darling as chancellor, to be honest.
"Auto enrollment pensions? Threat of quarterly accounts filing? Shared maternity leave? Not to mention the removal of the difference in Corp tax for small vs big business."
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I doubt very much that the rest of the press have ignored it, very naive to think other papers wont now be digging around for stuff to embarrass the Leave campaign. I'd wait to see what else comes out before you dismiss it.
Do you have any evidence that GCHQ were behind the stories on Farage or is that just another wild Leave conspiracy theory ?
Farage comments this morning are seriously out of order and will be an embarrassment to Vote Leave.
That's like saying Jeremy Corbyn's comments will be an embarrassment to the Conservative Party.
There's a reason Farage isn't even a member let alone a leader of Vote Leave. It is a rival organisation that has nothing to do with him.
You can say that but the voter sees him as a member of the leave campaign
Perhaps the conventional wisdom that Nigel Farage turns voters away from Leave is wrong (he enjoys better ratings than most party leaders),
He's been very effective on the campaign trail from what I've seen.
Agreed, although tbf the EU is his specialist subject. FWIW I think Leave should be making much more use of Dan The Man.
And the EU got £8.5 billion net from the UK (in 2015), while a country as populous as like India got only £279 million (2015). That's only 23p per Indian.
Are you really comparing membership of the largest free market on the planet with our International aid and development budget?
That is unworthy, even for you.
The thing is that our trade with non-EU countries is broadly in balance, whereas we have a massive and persistent deficit with EU countries. That means the Single Market is working far better for EU companies selling to us than it is for our companies selling to them. We're actually performing far better with those countries which do not share a single Market with us.
I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
As a small businessman myself I don't really get the frustration. There really isn't any onerous burden red-tape getting in my way.
I do disagree with a lot of Osborne's tendencies towards Gordon Brown style policies but I'm sure a large part of that is because of Treasury overreach.
Auto enrollment pensions? Threat of quarterly accounts filing? Shared maternity leave? Not to mention the removal of the difference in Corp tax for small vs big business.
IT and shared services make it a lot cheaper to comply with legislation like that than it would have been in the past, and the corporation tax change is just a simplification that harmonises the rate down.
Not having the legislation or exempting small businesses from it makes it far simpler and cheaper.
Although I'm not sure the old dividend set up was especially fair, my pay and the pay of many company directors is going down because of the Brownian fiddling with these rules. I was actually better off tax wise under Darling as chancellor, to be honest.
"Auto enrollment pensions? Threat of quarterly accounts filing? Shared maternity leave? Not to mention the removal of the difference in Corp tax for small vs big business."
None of this has anything to do with EU.
Was anyone claiming otherwise? It does, OTOH, have everything to do with our interfering Brownian chancellor.
I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
Do you really think there is going to be some orderly succession following the outcome in June? Really? Whichever way it goes it's going to be horrible. Civil wars are invariably worse than any other.
Yep - although to be honest I'm hoping there is a Draft Gove movement followed by a coronation in the result of a Leave vote, or a Draft May followed by coronation in the result of a Remain vote. In short, Osborne needs to be on the back benches for the good of the party.
This Tory carnage is only going to get worse should Brexit go pear-shaped. It may actually kill the party off.
The Brexit campaign, with its anti-politics demagoguery, is laying the ground for an unexpected Corbyn majority if they're hubristic enough to go for a quick general election after winning the referendum.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I note that the journalist who wrote that story coincidently has an exclusive interview with Cameron in the same edition.
Fancy That!
So are you saying that the Mail On Sunday was lying about the racists it has uncovered in the Leave campaign?
Isn't the REMAIN campaign based on racism too, against predominantly non-white non-EU people?
Does Mr Meeks have any evidence to suggest that Leave voters are angry about the EU or anything else for that matter?
I will be voting to Leave the EU - but it's not something that makes me angry. As a 29 year old living at home with my parents, what makes me angry is having had interest rates of 0.5% for 7 years combined with a Chancellor intent on pumping up a housing bubble. Furthermore, I despair that seven years after the last recession, our Chancellor is running a budget a deficit of £76bn and doesn't appear to have the appetite for doing anything about it.
If you're so worried about the deficit then why are you voting for something that will make it worse, at least in the short term?
Do you really think there is going to be some orderly succession following the outcome in June? Really? Whichever way it goes it's going to be horrible. Civil wars are invariably worse than any other.
Yep - although to be honest I'm hoping there is a Draft Gove movement followed by a coronation in the result of a Leave vote, or a Draft May followed by coronation in the result of a Remain vote. In short, Osborne needs to be on the back benches for the good of the party.
Not sure yet - but my perhaps hopeful rule of thumb is never underestimate the ability of the Tory party to get itself on an even keel when in Government after deposing a hopeless leader.
Remainiac Tories would be unlikely to be in a good frame of mind if we vote Leave - this is the best hope for party management.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I note that the journalist who wrote that story coincidently has an exclusive interview with Cameron in the same edition.
Fancy That!
So are you saying that the Mail On Sunday was lying about the racists it has uncovered in the Leave campaign?
Isn't the REMAIN campaign based on racism too, against predominantly non-white non-EU people?
No
Yes it is. It is with avowed aim of discriminating against non-Europeans from finding work in the UK.
To be non-racist we need an independent points based system - as was recommended by Mr Cameron in the 2010 Tory Manifesto.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I doubt very much that the rest of the press have ignored it, very naive to think other papers wont now be digging around for stuff to embarrass the Leave campaign. I'd wait to see what else comes out before you dismiss it.
Do you have any evidence that GCHQ were behind the stories on Farage or is that just another wild Leave conspiracy theory ?
Farage comments this morning are seriously out of order and will be an embarrassment to Vote Leave.
That's like saying Jeremy Corbyn's comments will be an embarrassment to the Conservative Party.
There's a reason Farage isn't even a member let alone a leader of Vote Leave. It is a rival organisation that has nothing to do with him.
You can say that but the voter sees him as a member of the leave campaign
Perhaps the conventional wisdom that Nigel Farage turns voters away from Leave is wrong (he enjoys better ratings than most party leaders),
He's been very effective on the campaign trail from what I've seen.
Agreed, although tbf the EU is his specialist subject. FWIW I think Remain should be making much more use of Dan The Man.
I think Dan's mainly doing public meetings - he's been all over the country judging by his tweets.
I think Leave are still being a bit meek with their campaign
Why don;t they claim Britain's net contribution will be 30bn in five years time, and force remain to deny it?
Remain will then be asked to say what THEY think our contribution will be.
Britain is clearly being lined up as a cash cow to pay for the giant imbalances the euro is throwing up. Exploit it.
best to end with a rousing crescendo - If leave win the undecideds (which ARE swinging towards them) then they will win - to do that they need the big push in the last week.
Interesting discussion on Sunday Politics BBC1 with Andrew Neil. Talking about the downing street encouraged attacks on Boris. Times hack says this is what is happening and may even be counter productive. DMail hack( Oakshott) says other briefings going on from Downing Street/REMAIN in a similar vein she was picked up for quoting one REMAINer who said that Gove did well obn Sky. Now have the FT hack Janan saying that their view is that this is ok as they challenged the PMs credibility in earlier weeks, though he seemed uncomfortable saying it. Andrew Neil "it tells us all about the state of the REMAIN campaign"
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I doubt very much that the rest of the press have ignored it, very naive to think other papers wont now be digging around for stuff to embarrass the Leave campaign. I'd wait to see what else comes out before you dismiss it.
Do you have any evidence that GCHQ were behind the stories on Farage or is that just another wild Leave conspiracy theory ?
Farage comments this morning are seriously out of order and will be an embarrassment to Vote Leave.
That's like saying Jeremy Corbyn's comments will be an embarrassment to the Conservative Party.
There's a reason Farage isn't even a member let alone a leader of Vote Leave. It is a rival organisation that has nothing to do with him.
You can say that but the voter sees him as a member of the leave campaign
Perhaps the conventional wisdom that Nigel Farage turns voters away from Leave is wrong (he enjoys better ratings than most party leaders),
He's been very effective on the campaign trail from what I've seen.
Agreed, although tbf the EU is his specialist subject. FWIW I think Remain should be making much more use of Dan The Man.
I think Dan's mainly doing public meetings - he's been all over the country judging by his tweets.
Probably a better use of his talents, to be honest. He doesn't have the media profile of Gove or Bojo, but could resonate in Cameron Direct style meetings.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I note that the journalist who wrote that story coincidently has an exclusive interview with Cameron in the same edition.
Fancy That!
So are you saying that the Mail On Sunday was lying about the racists it has uncovered in the Leave campaign?
I don't think a handful of EDL/NF/Britain First members delivering leaflets for Vote Leave makes much difference. There are some pretty unsavoury people campaigning for Remain (as well as plenty of decent people).
I don't think it's a huge deal either but I raised it because Plato (who has suddenly gone deaf on the issue) berated me a couple of days ago for suggesting there were any "waycists" involved in the Leave campaign.
It is with avowed aim of discriminating against non-Europeans from finding work in the UK.
More non-Europeans than Europeans came here.
So, bollocks
What about the rest of the EU though? The point is 500 million Europeans COULD come to work here with no strings attached - and we can do SFA about them. Discrimination exists in theory - if not necessarily in practice.
I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
UKIP Vote Intensity (2014 Euros / 2015 GE)
1 East England 34.5% / 16% 2 East Midlands 32.9% / 16% 3 SW England 32.3% / 14% 4 SE England 32.1% / 15% 5 West Midlands 31.5% / 16% 6 Yorkshire and Humber 31.1% / 16% 7 NE England 29.2% / 17% (Leave polling 54% - Panelbase) 8 NW England 27.6% / 14% 9 Wales 27.6% / 14% (Leave Polling 49 % - Yougov) 10 London 16.9% / 8.1% (Leave Polling 40% - Opinium) 11 Scotland 10.5% / 1.6% ( Leave Polling 34% - Six poll average)
I think you may be right because these areas are showing much higher Leave than UKIP vote share, and they aren't Tory.
Remain need to swing the parts of the country that are most Tory and eurosceptic to them.
Probably a better use of his talents, to be honest. He doesn't have the media profile of Gove or Bojo, but could resonate in Cameron Direct style meetings.
"Where did it all go right? The bare statistics are breathtaking. Even looking in percentage terms, employment rates are at all time highs, unemployment rates are at 10 year lows and the economic inactivity rate is also at a joint all time low (tying with 1990). Job vacancies are hovering just below their all time highs. Most of the economically inactive are students, stay-at-home mums or the retired. So why are so many voters so angry?"
Are you serious? Most towns are falling apart (been to Derby, Mansfield, Margate, Preston recently?), personal debt is sky high, and wages and conditions in many sectors and areas of life are falling, with no sign of a light at the end of a tunnel. Socially you can hardly walk down the street or stand in a post office (outside of Knightsbridge - I'm talking about outside of Knightsbridge, OK? ) without having your senses assaulted by scammers. Education levels are at the bottom of the barrel, as you can tell just by talking to many people and seeing how deluded, ignorant, intellectually lazy and without hope they are. Unemployment in most parts of the country is very high in the poorer part of the working class. Have you heard of food banks? Have you been to a supermarket recently and noticed those boxes where people can donate food to the hungry? And the shelves where you can buy things like half a dozen eggs, some margarine and a loaf of white bread for a low price, if that's all you can afford and the alternative is not to eat? A bit of public relations, to stave off the thought that one day the supermarket companies that make such huge profits might be the target of angry people. Those who don't know about what's happening to the country need to get out of Waitrose, the wine bar and paid-for academia some more.
"However, the evidence that immigration has reduced wages in aggregate is actually fairly weak: as a matter of common sense if employment rates are at an all-time high, job vacancies are near their all time highs and unemployment rates are at ten year lows, this cannot be anything like the only or even main explanation for low pay rises."
Official unemployment rates are cow poop. So are job vacancy figures. Have you asked for quotes recently for building work? Where have all the British workers gone? The reference to "common sense" can be the last refuge of an ostrich. "Common sense" - and for anyone who lives outside of chatterer-land, the evidence - shows that Eastern European immigrants are willing to work for lower wages and so the employers then cut the wages they're offering. If trade unionism were stronger and welcoming towards immigrants, then that wouldn't be the case. But sadly it isn't.
And this a problem for all of the wealthy tories fronting the leave campaign
@jessphillips: Daniel Hannan MEP says he will have a cushy job in Private sector if we leave,bully for you mate,perhaps it's easier for you to take a risk
''I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.''
I'm sure Corbyn has worked out the EU might act as a bulwark against his plans to turn Britain into a European Venezuela.
I think more likely is that Corbyn is calculating that the political chaos following a leave vote could be his chance to become PM. I think a general election is a possibility, and that could be good for Corbyn. He can't be feeling good about having to wait until 2020 to have a shot at winning an election. Far better to have one now and then if he loses he can say "well, I gave it my best shot, someone else can have a go".
If Corbyn thinks a Brexit vote is going to strengthen his role he is wrong. There is no way the Parliamentary Labour party will tolerate Corbyn in a Brexit world. The civil war in the Labour party will be just as bloody as the that in the Tory party. Both parties which largely are ungovernable now, will become even more so.
Does Mr Meeks have any evidence to suggest that Leave voters are angry about the EU or anything else for that matter?
I will be voting to Leave the EU - but it's not something that makes me angry. As a 29 year old living at home with my parents, what makes me angry is having had interest rates of 0.5% for 7 years combined with a Chancellor intent on pumping up a housing bubble. Furthermore, I despair that seven years after the last recession, our Chancellor is running a budget a deficit of £76bn and doesn't appear to have the appetite for doing anything about it.
If you're so worried about the deficit then why are you voting for something that will make it worse, at least in the short term?
Sound money goes out the window when the money (even huge sums of money) is being spent in a cause that rightwingers approve of. Personally I'd rather spend it on schools and hospitals than paying for greater notional freedom of manoeuvre that in practice won't be exercised, but chacun a son gout, I suppose.
And the EU got £8.5 billion net from the UK (in 2015), while a country as populous as like India got only £279 million (2015). That's only 23p per Indian.
Are you really comparing membership of the largest free market on the planet with our International aid and development budget?
That is unworthy, even for you.
Just ignore him, he reposts the same childish nonsense about 3 times a day
And this a problem for all of the wealthy tories fronting the leave campaign
@jessphillips: Daniel Hannan MEP says he will have a cushy job in Private sector if we leave,bully for you mate,perhaps it's easier for you to take a risk
Well, let's be honest, if we abolished Westminster there wouldn't be a queue of businesses wanting to give Jess Philips a job.
Hannan has a confidence about his ability which I admire.
I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
UKIP Vote Intensity (2014 Euros / 2015 GE)
1 East England 34.5% / 16% 2 East Midlands 32.9% / 16% 3 SW England 32.3% / 14% 4 SE England 32.1% / 15% 5 West Midlands 31.5% / 16% 6 Yorkshire and Humber 31.1% / 16% 7 NE England 29.2% / 17% (Leave polling 54% - Panelbase) 8 NW England 27.6% / 14% 9 Wales 27.6% / 14% (Leave Polling 49 % - Yougov) 10 London 16.9% / 8.1% (Leave Polling 40% - Opinium) 11 Scotland 10.5% / 1.6% ( Leave Polling 34% - Six poll average)
I think you may be right because these areas are showing much higher Leave than UKIP vote share, and they aren't Tory.
Remain need to swing the parts of the country that are most Tory and eurosceptic to them.
I kept quite quiet about it at the time, as it was my first election modelling exercise, but what struck me about the 2015 election after some spreadsheeting was how little the Tories needed to move forward in areas likely to be favourable to them to increase their seat number. Basically they needed a few percent in the midlands, SW and a little in the NW to swing enough to get to my prediction of 323 seats. In reality, outer London performed better than I expected too, and we ended with a majority.
The same gut feeling strikes me about Leave. The more polling we see with positive Leave sub-sample in non-natural-Leave-Tory areas, combined with the sustained support in Provincial England, the more convinced I am that this is going to be tremendously close and tending away from Remain.
"Where did it all go right? The bare statistics are breathtaking. Even looking in percentage terms, employment rates are at all time highs, unemployment rates are at 10 year lows and the economic inactivity rate is also at a joint all time low (tying with 1990). Job vacancies are hovering just below their all time highs. Most of the economically inactive are students, stay-at-home mums or the retired. So why are so many voters so angry?"
Are you serious? Most towns are falling apart (been to Derby, Mansfield, Margate, Preston recently?), personal debt is sky high, and wages and conditions in many sectors and areas of life are falling, with no sign of a light at the end of a tunnel. Socially you can hardly walk down the street or stand in a post office (outside of Knightsbridge - I'm talking about outside of Knightsbridge, OK? ) without having your senses assaulted by scammers. Education levels are at the bottom of the barrel, as you can tell just by talking to many people and seeing how deluded, ignorant, intellectually lazy and without hope they are. Unemployment in most parts of the country is very high in the poorer part of the working class. Have you heard of food banks? Have you been to a supermarket recently and noticed those boxes where people can donate food to the hungry? And the shelves where you can buy things like half a dozen eggs, some margarine and a loaf of white bread for a low price, if that's all you can afford and the alternative is not to eat? A bit of public relations, to stave off the thought that one day the supermarket companies that make such huge profits might be the target of angry people. Those who don't know about what's happening to the country need to get out of Waitrose, the wine bar and paid-for academia some more.
"However, the evidence that immigration has reduced wages in aggregate is actually fairly weak: as a matter of common sense if employment rates are at an all-time high, job vacancies are near their all time highs and unemployment rates are at ten year lows, this cannot be anything like the only or even main explanation for low pay rises."
Official unemployment rates are cow poop. So are job vacancy figures. Have you asked for quotes recently for building work? Where have all the British workers gone? The reference to "common sense" can be the last refuge of an ostrich. "Common sense" - and for anyone who lives outside of chatterer-land, the evidence - shows that Eastern European immigrants are willing to work for lower wages and so the employers then cut the wages they're offering. If trade unionism were stronger and welcoming towards immigrants, then that wouldn't be the case. But sadly it isn't.
I'm sorry that my use of statistics offends you. Clearly what you know from your heart is far more reliable.
I think Dan's mainly doing public meetings - he's been all over the country judging by his tweets.
Hannan is very good at those public meetings I should think based his performance at on one here in Hurstpierpoint a couple of years ago. However, they only reach a small proportion of the electorate and of those most will already share his views. So I do wonder why he is not used on the Television or even the wireless. Perhaps those formats don't suit him, perhaps he is not looking to build a career in UK politics, perhaps those who are currently leading the campaign don't want a rival. I don't know.
"Where did it all go right? The bare statistics are breathtaking. Even looking in percentage terms, employment rates are at all time highs, unemployment rates are at 10 year lows and the economic inactivity rate is also at a joint all time low (tying with 1990). Job vacancies are hovering just below their all time highs. Most of the economically inactive are students, stay-at-home mums or the retired. So why are so many voters so angry?"
Are you serious? Most towns are falling apart (been to Derby, Mansfield, Margate, Preston recently?), personal debt is sky high, and wages and conditions in many sectors and areas of life are falling, with no sign of a light at the end of a tunnel. Socially you can hardly walk down the street or stand in a post office (outside of Knightsbridge - I'm talking about outside of Knightsbridge, OK? ) without having your senses assaulted by scammers. Education levels are at the bottom of the barrel, as you can tell just by talking to many people and seeing how deluded, ignorant, intellectually lazy and without hope they are. Unemployment in most parts of the country is very high in the poorer part of the working class. Have you heard of food banks? Have you been to a supermarket recently and noticed those boxes where people can donate food to the hungry? And the shelves where you can buy things like half a dozen eggs, some margarine and a loaf of white bread for a low price, if that's all you can afford and the alternative is not to eat? A bit of public relations, to stave off the thought that one day the supermarket companies that make such huge profits might be the target of angry people. Those who don't know about what's happening to the country need to get out of Waitrose, the wine bar and paid-for academia some more.
"However, the evidence that immigration has reduced wages in aggregate is actually fairly weak: as a matter of common sense if employment rates are at an all-time high, job vacancies are near their all time highs and unemployment rates are at ten year lows, this cannot be anything like the only or even main explanation for low pay rises."
Official unemployment rates are cow poop. So are job vacancy figures. Have you asked for quotes recently for building work? Where have all the British workers gone? The reference to "common sense" can be the last refuge of an ostrich. "Common sense" - and for anyone who lives outside of chatterer-land, the evidence - shows that Eastern European immigrants are willing to work for lower wages and so the employers then cut the wages they're offering. If trade unionism were stronger and welcoming towards immigrants, then that wouldn't be the case. But sadly it isn't.
Comments
I'm increasingly wondering whether Project Fear (Economics) is failing because the electorate at large can sense a yawning inconsistency between the aspirations of the govt and the aspirations of the individual. I'm this close to resigning my membership of the Tory party. What happened to us being the party of the small businessman?
And stay is project fear?
That is unworthy, even for you.
It may be similar to 1997 where a relatively strong economy meant that the Tories familiar fear campaign about Labour stopped working.
That he has never taken responsibility for that but bitterly tried to blame people not in his government for the failings of his government show the true character of the man.
I used to think that Conservatives believed in taking responsibility for your own actions.
John Major proves otherwise.
It would seem that winning an election outright goes to the head of modern Tory leaders....
I do disagree with a lot of Osborne's tendencies towards Gordon Brown style policies but I'm sure a large part of that is because of Treasury overreach.
If you're on a low wage and can't afford an awful lot, there is very little to lose and an awful lot of pride to gain in independence. As Scotland has proved.
The difference this time is that Pensioners are on the whole keen too.
Brexit if you can't afford anything else, and Brexit if you consider it a price worth paying. A coherent electoral coalition for a referendum. Something Remain are struggling to muster at the moment.
And the same bastards are trying to do the same to Cameron
And in both cases you blame the party leader who won the election...
Aye, right.
Per capita about £17 (EU contribution, net) v. 23p - that's 74 times!
Get your calculator out!
Maggie in 1993: "I could never have signed this treaty. I hope that that is clear to all who have heard me."
My mortgage costs several time more than a pint of milk.
IT'S AN OUTRAGE, according to you...
Voters don't like losers (hello Neil, hello Ed....). But they really dislike those who scream and scream until they are sick. During this Referendum campaign, David Cameron has transformed into Violet Elizabeth Bott.
'Bastards' who were right about the direction of EU travel
'Bastards' who were right about the single currency.
Yep - I'd rather be a 'bastard' in the eye of Major than of his own deluded pure Tory Remainiac views.
Who do you think Cameron and Osborne prefer speaking with - fatcats in the City or small businessmen in medium sized towns ?
@robowers: More tweets doesn't necessarily = more supporters. Can be tweets criticising that side's policies. Just means that side driving conversation
@benatipsosmori: @ITVAllegra @robowers Salmond thought had won #indyref because of Twitter analysis...
As an aside I am curious about Aleggra Stratton's career choice. She was political editor for the BBC flagship current affairs program.
Now she reads out Tweets from a giant telly on a Sunday morning.
Impartial? My ars*e.
Protection Moneymembership fees.And remember I always quote the £8.5 bn, never the gross amount, right?
I think the 3m unemployed and huge number of home repossessions might have had a bit more to do with it personally.
The amusing thing is that if Leave win Scott_Paste will be tweeting and bleating on behalf of PM Gove or PM Boris.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkLL2D8XIAAGJcW.jpg:large
My mortgage costs more than a pint of milk, whether I use the gross amount or not.
Labour Leave's @KateHoeyMP: "I wouldn't put it past" Jeremy Corbyn to secretly vote Leave #Murnaghan https://t.co/pBLsGirwG2
Video
Although I'm not sure the old dividend set up was especially fair, my pay and the pay of many company directors is going down because of the Brownian fiddling with these rules. I was actually better off tax wise under Darling as chancellor, to be honest.
And Mr Dancer as a historian surely you can see the importance of learning from previous mistakes. Leave make many salient points. Its the manner in which they choose to do so and the personalities of its proponents which is so off-putting.
It just isn't in any world other than George Osborne's.
Osborne is attempting to govern for Tory voters alone. And cocking that up too.
Poor strategy and failing to execute it effectively. Reminds me a bit of Remain.
Next!
The most successful party ever with FPTP at GE.
Surely it would need a seismic shift to PR to do that, and I can not see that happening anytime soon.
Hoping that jumping on the Farage bandwagon will propel him to No 10
Even if he is right, he will not lead a united party. Not all the members are Faragists
But, if we vote out on the 23rd June, this will eclipse all my political disappointments- it'll be like rolling them all up and whacking me in the face in a oner. It's catastrophically a scenario that is becoming all the more plausible by the day- John Major's risible appearance today only reinforced this.
I'm beginning to plan ahead. My wife is away the weekend after the vote, so I'll probably do what I did 24 years ago in 1992- score some decent gear and go on a humungous bender for three days, luckily this coincides with Glastonbury on the TV and the footie. I will not go anywhere near pbCOM threads.
None of this has anything to do with EU.
FWIW I think Leave should be making much more use of Dan The Man.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
Why don;t they claim Britain's net contribution will be 30bn in five years time, and force remain to deny it?
Remain will then be asked to say what THEY think our contribution will be.
Britain is clearly being lined up as a cash cow to pay for the giant imbalances the euro is throwing up. Exploit it.
To be non-racist we need an independent points based system - as was recommended by Mr Cameron in the 2010 Tory Manifesto.
So, bollocks
That's a very weak point Scott.
After all, David Cameron leads the tory party, and he's a liberal democrat.
Andrew Neil "it tells us all about the state of the REMAIN campaign"
I'm sure Corbyn has worked out the EU might act as a bulwark against his plans to turn Britain into a European Venezuela.
1 East England 34.5% / 16%
2 East Midlands 32.9% / 16%
3 SW England 32.3% / 14%
4 SE England 32.1% / 15%
5 West Midlands 31.5% / 16%
6 Yorkshire and Humber 31.1% / 16%
7 NE England 29.2% / 17% (Leave polling 54% - Panelbase)
8 NW England 27.6% / 14%
9 Wales 27.6% / 14% (Leave Polling 49 % - Yougov)
10 London 16.9% / 8.1% (Leave Polling 40% - Opinium)
11 Scotland 10.5% / 1.6% ( Leave Polling 34% - Six poll average)
I think you may be right because these areas are showing much higher Leave than UKIP vote share, and they aren't Tory.
Remain need to swing the parts of the country that are most Tory and eurosceptic to them.
I suggest BoJo will be no better.
Your argument appears to support my argument, so thanks.
Are you serious? Most towns are falling apart (been to Derby, Mansfield, Margate, Preston recently?), personal debt is sky high, and wages and conditions in many sectors and areas of life are falling, with no sign of a light at the end of a tunnel. Socially you can hardly walk down the street or stand in a post office (outside of Knightsbridge - I'm talking about outside of Knightsbridge, OK?
"However, the evidence that immigration has reduced wages in aggregate is actually fairly weak: as a matter of common sense if employment rates are at an all-time high, job vacancies are near their all time highs and unemployment rates are at ten year lows, this cannot be anything like the only or even main explanation for low pay rises."
Official unemployment rates are cow poop. So are job vacancy figures. Have you asked for quotes recently for building work? Where have all the British workers gone? The reference to "common sense" can be the last refuge of an ostrich. "Common sense" - and for anyone who lives outside of chatterer-land, the evidence - shows that Eastern European immigrants are willing to work for lower wages and so the employers then cut the wages they're offering. If trade unionism were stronger and welcoming towards immigrants, then that wouldn't be the case. But sadly it isn't.
@jessphillips: Daniel Hannan MEP says he will have a cushy job in Private sector if we leave,bully for you mate,perhaps it's easier for you to take a risk
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
Hannan has a confidence about his ability which I admire.
The same gut feeling strikes me about Leave. The more polling we see with positive Leave sub-sample in non-natural-Leave-Tory areas, combined with the sustained support in Provincial England, the more convinced I am that this is going to be tremendously close and tending away from Remain.
So the pledges are not things that will happen.
Ok, got it...
Protection MoneyMembership Fees.