I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
It will be interesting to see who wins.
I don't think the current skirmishes will resolve it. I don't see it being resolved until 2020 at least after the Euro has collapsed and the whole current order of things has come to an end.
(Your posts are impossible to reply to because your messages are on top).
Though it would be interestin to watch 'Leave' cope with the mayhem after a Brext and to watch the humiliation of the Tories getting their worst ever result since it was founded and seeing Boris Gove IDS and Patel being chased out of the country by an impoverished mob with pitchforks having to seek refuge Alaska where no one's heard of them......
......the truth is that five days of schadenfreude wouldn't be worth it. You and I have our EU bolt hioles but what about the others?
Oh- thanks Roger. I did wonder why my comments always seemed to come at the top. I thought it was something to do with how my computer is set up.
Fox in the UK gave a great analogy yesterday about a friend's advice- the best 2 days you have when you get a boat is the day you buy it and the day you sell it. Sadly, I think that'll apply to Brexit- the Euphoria when we vote Brexit, will only be matched by the relief we have when we are accepted back.
@tnewtondunn: Big Gove line in @peston interview: we won't have left EU by 2020 under #Brexit, ie he'd delay Article 50. Unsure voters would allow that.
I'm sorry that my use of statistics offends you. Clearly what you know from your heart is far more reliable.
When one is faced with what one can see and government statistics, the temptation to believe that the evidence of one's eyes tends to be more reliable is very powerful.
Perhaps.
But usually the correct course of action is to get out more.
Err, that's what your original interlocutor was suggesting to you.
The plural of anecdote is not data. Usually when people say things like "everyone I know is voting Leave", they are looking too narrowly.
Statistics, on the other hand, are compiled with the intention of being comprehensive. They are not necessarily accurate but we are blessed in this country with an impartial and very able statistics-gathering service.
But I appreciate that the new Leave line to take is that experts are to be disregarded, so perhaps I'm wasting my energy.
Please don't waste your energy trying to patronise me, Mr. Meeks.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
Dominic Lawson in Times today says the pillar box red colour scheme of Vote Leave was a deliberate ploy to win over Labour voters. It was the first thing that struck me when I saw their logo. Given 50% of Labour voters have no idea which side it's officially supporting - it certainly seems like an even cleverer move,
I'd add to that the colour scheme during the Euros. I saw a few cars yesterday with England flags fluttering from the windows and did a double take as looked Vote Leave. I suspect flags etc on houses and pubs will have the same effect.
(Your posts are impossible to reply to because your messages are on top).
Though it would be interestin to watch 'Leave' cope with the mayhem after a Brext and to watch the humiliation of the Tories getting their worst ever result since it was founded and seeing Boris Gove IDS and Patel being chased out of the country by an impoverished mob with pitchforks having to seek refuge Alaska where no one's heard of them......
......the truth is that five days of schadenfreude wouldn't be worth it. You and I have our EU bolt hioles but what about the others?
I have an apartment in Cyprus and want what is in the best interests of everyone across the EU, not just the UK. How many times we have to say yes to free trade, and no to any of the political baggage that comes with the EU I don't know......but I do know is that its time to send a message to Brussels.
Why don't we all cut our noses off and send them to Brussels. That'll send them a message!
There are 2 minor flaws with the Gove PM scenario- one he has the electoral appeal of a hungry ferret rummaging under your pants, and second he doesn't want it.
What is clear from the somewhat febrile nature of this thread, the wall to wall politicians in the TV studios and the ever more exaggerated claims by both sides is that this is still up for grabs. As a tentative leaver I never really expected that. I expected Cameron, the establishment and project fear to be at least 10 points clear and probably moving away by now.
If Leave win it is uncertain the Conservative party will recover. Cameron and Osborne have together led them out of the Blair wilderness into power and then into a majority. And they will both be destroyed. I am very sad about that. Unlike many leavers on here I continue to have great respect for both of them for what they have done for both the country and the party. The Conservative party is a more liberal, socially tolerant and open minded organisation than it was 10 years ago and they deserve the credit for that.
I also wonder if the bitterness that their destruction is going to cause will ever be capable of being repaired. A Leaver will take the leadership but who amongst the Remainers will be willing to serve? We may well have a situation similar to Labour where most of the experience and talent (I use the word in a strictly relevant sense of course) sits on the back benchers.
Chillax. The intellectual godfathers of Cameronism (Gove and Hilton) are backing Brexit, as is one of Cameron's earliest supporters: Boris Johnson. Others, like Letwin, have strong Brexit sympathies.
In many respects, the original vision of Cameronism - from c.2006-c.2011 - true devolution of power to the people, and a strong society - cannot be fulfilled unless we *do* Brexit.
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
Because teachers do not like to be questioned, even when our education system is failing our children.
Or alternatively, and in the real world, whilst some of the changes were good, some have and still are upsetting parents. And he was seen as a liability electorally. Sorry, I know he's the new deity, but he wasn't moved because teachers, there aren't enough of them and they're(mainly) too left wing to make any difference in all but the most marginal of seats. There's a lot of parents though.
Is there a need to be sarky?
Gove is truly underrated. Education secretaries are rarely popular.
His moves towards reforming prisons are truly liberal. His straight talking would prove popular after the mealy mouth of Cameron and Osborne.
Straight talking? He directly lied to the member of the audience worried about whether she would still be able to retire to France.
The way France is going it may be very unattractive to retire to France until they get a Maggie Thatcher type of Leader to sort out their union problems. At present they seem to have a James Callaghan trying the reasonable and gradual approach and being met with a summer of discontent.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
Because its in another country and our media is far more interested in that which affects us directly/celebrity deaths.
It will affect all the footy fans going over there in the next week as well as all the summer holidaymakers there! But we can't be seen to be showing other EU member states in crisis at this sensitive time can we?
Cuts both ways - I was driving up through France about a week ago and had read the Mail's stories about 40% of petrol stations being out or low on fuel. I even stupidly bought a couple of Jerry cans and filled them up in Spain. At all the hotels on the way back all the Brits were moaning about the stupid Mail scare storys, nobody had encountered any problems anywhere. .
I hardly think you can compare Corbyn to Napoleon. Next you'll be saying Boris is like Churchill.
A Brexit vote will be the end of Corbyn. His death might be a little slower and more painful than Cameron's, but it'll come before the end of the year.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
I do not praise Corbyn, I just pass on another's interesting view. He laughed a bit after making it. But, Corbyn is commonly agreed to be a LEAVer and wants a damaged tory party. By letting Cameron and Osborne front it, if it fails he is happy and they get the blame.
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
He created the Free Schools policy that allowed religious minorities (from immigrant stock or immigrants) to found their own schools within the State system. This accommodated the new arrivals which Labour had set its face against, despite all their multi-cultural rhetoric.
The fact that Alan Johnston (who was immediately moved to Health, incidentally) is for Remain and Gove is for Leave is the single most important reason I'm voting Leave.
So you agree with allowing Muslims to set up their own free schools?
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
It will be interesting to see who wins.
Hollande has already basically surrendered. This is just the punishment beating
Mr. Surbiton, age of those searching is vital to understand how to interpret that. Younger people may be pleased at the prospect of getting on the first rung of the housing ladder, older people may be worried, people in the middle could be mixed (but mostly worried).
What is clear from the somewhat febrile nature of this thread, the wall to wall politicians in the TV studios and the ever more exaggerated claims by both sides is that this is still up for grabs. As a tentative leaver I never really expected that. I expected Cameron, the establishment and project fear to be at least 10 points clear and probably moving away by now.
If Leave win it is uncertain the Conservative party will recover. Cameron and Osborne have together led them out of the Blair wilderness into power and then into a majority. And they will both be destroyed. I am very sad about that. Unlike many leavers on here I continue to have great respect for both of them for what they have done for both the country and the party. The Conservative party is a more liberal, socially tolerant and open minded organisation than it was 10 years ago and they deserve the credit for that.
I also wonder if the bitterness that their destruction is going to cause will ever be capable of being repaired. A Leaver will take the leadership but who amongst the Remainers will be willing to serve? We may well have a situation similar to Labour where most of the experience and talent (I use the word in a strictly relevant sense of course) sits on the back benchers.
Chillax. The intellectual godfathers of Cameronism (Gove and Hilton) are backing Brexit, as is one of Cameron's earliest supporters: Boris Johnson. Others, like Letwin, have strong Brexit sympathies.
In many respects, the original vision of Cameronism - from c.2006-c.2011 - true devolution of power to the people, and a strong society - cannot be fulfilled unless we *do* Brexit.
Of course Hilton is. He lives in California. He's here to sell a book. No one would interview him if he supported Remain. He's an adman. He knows where to position himself for maximum exposure
Fascinating to see how this works out. Could change welfare forever
It is Gordon Brown's income support by another name. Gordon was there first.
No because it eliminates all means testing and goes to everyone. There are no perverse incentives not to work. If you go out and earn your income goes up in a predictable way.
Could be a very good policy for the next Labour government.
(Your posts are impossible to reply to because your messages are on top).
Though it would be interestin to watch 'Leave' cope with the mayhem after a Brext and to watch the humiliation of the Tories getting their worst ever result since it was founded and seeing Boris Gove IDS and Patel being chased out of the country by an impoverished mob with pitchforks having to seek refuge Alaska where no one's heard of them......
......the truth is that five days of schadenfreude wouldn't be worth it. You and I have our EU bolt hioles but what about the others?
I have an apartment in Cyprus and want what is in the best interests of everyone across the EU, not just the UK. How many times we have to say yes to free trade, and no to any of the political baggage that comes with the EU I don't know......but I do know is that its time to send a message to Brussels.
Why don't we all cut our noses off and send them to Brussels. That'll send them a message!
Can I suggest a reason why the polls didn't pick up a Tory majority. The Tories have huge leads amongst rural Britain. It is hard to get broadband coverage in rural areas and this affect both online polls (obviously) and phone polls (wifi for mobiles). In seats that the tories took from the libdems for example in the south St Ives I suspect the broadband and wifi is much better in the town of St.Ives itself then the more rural surrounding areas and that this is where the Libdem+ Labour vote was most concentrated and yes the labour vote was increasing in the urban parts but they didn't pick up the resilient tory vote which would give the tories the seat . If you multiply that effect to every English and Welsh seat that could account for the difference?
I wonder if even in some city seats there are rural areas with bad connection and more likely to vote tory in place like Sutton and Cheam? And this accounts for the difference in polling in the E.U ref? I bet there are some areas with bad lanline connections let alone online.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
It will be interesting to see who wins.
I don't think the current skirmishes will resolve it. I don't see it being resolved until 2020 at least after the Euro has collapsed and the whole current order of things has come to an end.
The strife in France is an inevitable consequence of the protectionist EU model which believed that we were a large enough market to allow ourselves to pull up the drawbridge, be selective about who we wanted to trade with and fix our own terms and conditions to suit ourselves.
To describe such a model as archaic would be generous, it fits better with Morris Dancer's obsessions (and I don't mean F1). The consequence of such a model has been the EU rapidly shrinking as a share of world GDP, structural unemployment and an ever greater struggle to maintain the welfare state that we believe we are entitled to.
The only country to make a serious success of this was Germany and they did so by undermining the whole system. Until very recently they had no minimum wage at all, they have used both monetary and fiscal policy to drive exports and restrain domestic demand and they have used the Euro to build in a competitive advantage over their supposed friends.
France wanted to believe they could remain like France and did not need to become more like Germany but the truth is they can't. They need to restore competitiveness not only within the EU but with the rest of the world. And the EU as a body is simply not designed to deal with those problems.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You vote in competing directions. It is the honorable thing to do. Though I do have sympathy about your Mother in Law.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
A friend of mine has also asked me to proxy vote for him. Out of common courtesy I would only cast his vote in the direction that he has asked me to.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You vote in competing directions. It is the honorable thing to do. Though I do have sympathy about your Mother in Law.
IS there invincible evidence that MiL would be ejected were Leave to win?
I am not convince that there is, any more than there is any evidence that all the expats would be chucked out of Spain.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
Seriously? You do exactly what your wife tells you to do like any wise husband.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
The higher the turnout the better for democracy, so cast her vote as she intended.
That said has she 'compensated' you for that first class upgrade ? If not, you'd be within your rights to cast her vote for Leave.
Could be a very good policy for the next Labour government.
It might do, but I don't think Labour are remotely as radical as they like to think they are. There would be a lot of losers with a switch to basic income, particularly as UK per capita GDP is about half that of Switzerland, it would be markedly less generous if applied here.
It's the sort of question we should be asking as the advances of automation, robotics, machine learning and so on are going to change employment and leave a lot of people behind in their employability.
Mr. 1000, honour dictates you do as she requests. Epictetus would agree.
The mother-in-law bit reminds me of a Les Dawson joke.
He's walking with his wife, and sees his mother-in-law being given a kicking by six men. "Aren't you going to help?" his wife asks. "Six ought to be enough."
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
Breaking news - the previously UNDECIDED Johnny Mercer backs Remain.
I'm shocked.
I suspect most of the "undecided" Tory MPs will back remain possibly hoping their late conversion goes under the radar. A rumour is circulating that Leavers on the prospective candidates list are being purged by the vengeful Cameron machine.
Mine came out for Leave about 10 days ago. I think she's seen the size of the Leave campaign locally. She always sounded more like a Remainer until then.
I know of one very wet tory mp who has just STFU in fear of being deselected. When Cameron & Osborne are gone, CCHQ will provide no help to the circa 160 MPs in the REMAIN camp.
The Tories have a dwindling membership that is older and much more right wing and eurosceptic than their own supporters let alone the broader electorate. Labour has a similar problem in reverse.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
It will be interesting to see who wins.
Hollande has already basically surrendered. This is just the punishment beating
Are you sure? Melissa Kidd at Redburn - who's not exactly a Euro-enthusiast - has a different view.
The Observer make clear in their article though that the new figures put Remain ahead
Two small matters stand out. One, despite their party line, a vast majority of PC supporters are for Brexit [ maybe, a sub-sample issue ] and , two, amongst the Don't Know's, there is a unbelieveably large number of Tory supporters. The Tory sub-sample is twice as large as Labour.
I think those Labour canvassers who found Labour voters for Brexit may not have come to terms with the fact that most of them are now UKIP.
Mr. Glenn, I can't speak for anyone else and I cannot predict the future. What I can say is that my concerns and hence my vote have nothing to do with my future but for the Country my son will live in for the rest of his life (unless he follows my advice and emigrates). Most of my social set are also pensioners and without exception they are thinking along the same lines; its the future of their children and grandchildren that motivate them.
That there might be short term volatility if we leave the EU is, in my view, a given. That there might be a Labour government is also a given. However, I am looking beyond the next few years, and beyond the witless concentration of GDP, a term that few people understand. My question is is it more likely, in the medium to long term, that the UK will be a better place to live if it remains in or leaves the EU?
My view, and others disagree, is that the UK will be a better place if it returns to being a self-governing nation state. So the project fear which is all based around hypothetical short-term economic effects just wash over me. I shall vote accordingly.
Thanks for posting that. I share your lack of patience for narrow and short-term arguments about economics. I am also concerned with the future of Britain over the long term. I want it to be a better place to live and a country that better supports the aspirations of its people to do well.
We are currently living through an era of unprecedented globalisation which is leaving too many behind. Our political class and their opposite numbers in other Western countries have so far failed to find the right answers to deal with these trends. Against that background it might seem that opting out of the EU would make sense, or failing that, would send a message to the elites, but this would be merely a short-term cri de cœur.
We should never forget that Britain's future is inextricably linked with the future of Europe as a whole. We are an island nation in the literal sense only. What use is the satisfaction of independence if Europe burns around us? Conversely what is the price of independence if it means that Britain plays no role in the denouement of centuries of European rivalry as Europe takes its place in a newly globally-industrialised world? Britain is not a bit-part actor but a country that has earned its place at the centre of world history. We have an opportunity, and a duty, to work together to make Europe great again. Only through playing our full part in this process will Britain be a place that allows its sons and daughters to fulfil their potential.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
I think it could come well before 2020 if the expenses scandal comes to anything, and after a Euro collapse in 2018/2019 your scenario wouldn't be valid anyway.
Corbyn will win off the back of a sovereign debt crisis and calls for a radical non-austerity alternative, not as though it would have cat in hells chance of working - probably a bit like Syriza that they'd be forced by the markets to reverse on all the policies they came to office in very short order.
I well remember the threads on here 9 months ago after Corbyn won. As I said then on here, I thought there was a far higher possibility that he could become PM one day than all the Tory PB crowd believed at the time. Some of them are coming round to my view just 9 months later alas.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
It will be interesting to see who wins.
Hollande has already basically surrendered. This is just the punishment beating
Are you sure? Melissa Kidd at Redburn - who's not exactly a Euro-enthusiast - has a different view.
Based on a Times article a week or so ago. No more analysis than that
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You vote in competing directions. It is the honorable thing to do. Though I do have sympathy about your Mother in Law.
IS there invincible evidence that MiL would be ejected were Leave to win?
I am not convince that there is, any more than there is any evidence that all the expats would be chucked out of Spain.
There has been talk of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties 1969 on this board.
If it doesn't apply, then that will mean there will be no problem in getting a trade deal with the EU, unless everyone wants an additional refugee problem.
Alternatively, she can apply for indefinite leave to stay or claim British citizenship under the European Communities Act 1972.
I still think leave need to be around 55pc in a forced choice no don't knows to compensate for late swing and pollsters not including Gibraltar / Northern Ireland in their samples.
One of the critical things leave need to do over the next 18 days is to hammer home the message that there is no 'status quo' in this election in order to counter the status quo narrative that Remain are peddling which is a complete myth. Nothing ever remains the same long term. I well remember the critical question in the Farage Clegg EU debate a few years ago - what will the EU look like in 10 years time? Clegg said pretty much the same as today to well deserved derision from the audience.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
I think it could come well before 2020 if the expenses scandal comes to anything, and after a Euro collapse in 2018/2019 your scenario wouldn't be valid anyway.
Corbyn will win off the back of a sovereign debt crisis and calls for a radical non-austerity alternative, not as though it would have cat in hells chance of working - probably a bit like Syriza that they'd be forced by the markets to reverse on all the policies they came to office in very short order.
I well remember the threads on here 9 months ago after Corbyn won. As I said then on here, I thought there was a far higher possibility that he could become PM one day than all the Tory PB crowd believed at the time. Some of them are coming round to my view just 9 months later alas.
Nope. Corbyn will never be PM. Just not going to happen.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
Why would the electorate want revenge when they themselves voted for Brexit? Personally I think Corbyn has a low ceiling but a high floor, ie today's Opinium still has Labour on the 30% they got at the last general election. I cannot see Corbyn winning the next election but his best hope would be for a narrow Remain and then Leave voting Tories shifting to UKIP producing a hung parliament under FPTP and giving him the chance of a deal with the SNP, Plaid, the SDLP and the Greens etc. I still think the Tories would form a minority government in such circumstances with backing from the DUP and UKIP but it is his best chance
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You vote in competing directions. It is the honorable thing to do. Though I do have sympathy about your Mother in Law.
IS there invincible evidence that MiL would be ejected were Leave to win?
I am not convince that there is, any more than there is any evidence that all the expats would be chucked out of Spain.
As we are quoting song lyrics:
"And nothing ever happens, nothing happens at all The needle returns to the start of the song And we all sing along like before..."
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
I find the whole situation rather odd, considering she can apply to make a postal vote in the next three days. Without wishing to be rude, if she doesn't have time to exercise her democratic right, why should that affect your vote?
I also find it a little irksome that you feel the need to reassure us that your mother in law doesn't claim benefits - placating the slavering hordes of Daily Mail outers you feel this site is infested with? I may object to the system, but I don't have an issue with an old lady claiming what she is legally entitled to. To be totally frank, you don't really give me the impression of particularly liking Leave or Leavers, or seem terribly convinced by the case for leaving. If you don't want to vote leave for any other reason, just don't vote Leave. It's your vote to use as you please.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You vote in competing directions. It is the honorable thing to do. Though I do have sympathy about your Mother in Law.
IS there invincible evidence that MiL would be ejected were Leave to win?
I am not convince that there is, any more than there is any evidence that all the expats would be chucked out of Spain.
There has been talk of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties 1969 on this board.
If it doesn't apply, then that will mean there will be no problem in getting a trade deal with the EU, unless everyone wants an additional refugee problem.
Alternatively, she can apply for indefinite leave to stay or claim British citizenship under the European Communities Act 1972.
If Leave win the European Communities Act is going to be repealed. But it is inconceivable that those with acquired rights (ie those already here or there in the case of Spain) will not have them respected.
Second. I note, for what it is worth, that the latest figures date from the time of the Coalition Government. Has the level of salisfaction got better or worse since then?
The Lib Dems did make a serious difference in achieving a more nearly equal level of income across the population. But since then...?
How did they help the very poor who earned too little to benefit from higher Personal Allowances?
Not quite sure what you're basing your ideas of broadband on, but you're wrong. Having lived in rural Gloucestershire and the heart of Wales literally sixty miles from the nearest large town, I have had constant access to reliable broadband since 2006. In fact, speeds in Cannock (pop c. 85,000) are rather slower than they were in Clifford's Mesne (pop. c. 200) I think because there is more pressure on the phone exchange. When I spent some time in Kettlewell in Yorkshire a couple of years ago, they told me they had already gone over to fibre optic, although I'm not sure how they managed it (assuming they were telling the truth, of course). Therefore, your suggestion is not plausible.
The likeliest explanation is that people who voted Tory simply don't have time to fill in polls online or over the phone as they are too busy. That's apparently what the pollsters believe and I have to say it sounds plausible. Now remember people in rural areas usually have major amounts of travel time as well and you see the possible problem.
David Davis "deploying Major this morning was the nuclear weapon from downing street".
So what next? A Death Star in the form of ..... Heath's body? Or Churchill's?
Remain will exhume Sir Francis Drake to testify in their favour.
David Davis. Blimey I had almost forgotten him. Will he run for leadership again if Brexit?
I don't think so, but he is apparently very well connected and a big networker with the PLP, so if he decides to throw his weight behind someone that should give them an advantage.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
Because its in another country and our media is far more interested in that which affects us directly/celebrity deaths.
It will affect all the footy fans going over there in the next week as well as all the summer holidaymakers there! But we can't be seen to be showing other EU member states in crisis at this sensitive time can we?
Cuts both ways - I was driving up through France about a week ago and had read the Mail's stories about 40% of petrol stations being out or low on fuel. I even stupidly bought a couple of Jerry cans and filled them up in Spain. At all the hotels on the way back all the Brits were moaning about the stupid Mail scare storys, nobody had encountered any problems anywhere. .
Comes of reading the Mail. No sympathy!
In mitigation it was only on line! Why, when all my experience tells me the Mail talks bollocks, did I fall for it. I guess it was the thought of my wife never letting me forget it if they were right. I'll know better next time.
Mr. Glenn, I can't speak for any ce if it returns to being a self-governing nation state. So the project fear which is all based around hypothetical short-term economic effects just wash over me. I shall vote accordingly.
Thanks for posting that. I share your lack of patience for narrow and short-term arguments about economics. I am also concerned with the future of Britain over the long term. I want it to be a better place to live and a country that better supports the aspirations of its people to do well.
We are currently living through an era of unprecedented globalisation which is leaving too many behind. Our political class and their opposite numbers in other Western countries have so far failed to find the right answers to deal with these trends. Against that background it might seem that opting out of the EU would make sense, or failing that, would send a message to the elites, but this would be merely a short-term cri de cœur.
We should never forget that Britain's future is inextricably linked with the future of Europe as a whole. We are an island nation in the literal sense only. What use is the satisfaction of independence if Europe burns around us? Conversely what is the price of independence if it means that Britain plays no role in the denouement of centuries of European rivalry as Europe takes its place in a newly globally-industrialised world? Britain is not a bit-part actor but a country that has earned its place at the centre of world history. We have an opportunity, and a duty, to work together to make Europe great again. Only through playing our full part in this process will Britain be a place that allows its sons and daughters to fulfil their potential.
You mention globalisation in your first part, and then proceed to narrow your whole analysis to Europe. That just doesn't make any sense in a globalised world! Britain's future is engaging and trading with the whole world including the rise of Asia which will be the dominant economic power by 2030. The EU is increasingly inward looking, especially with the EU common external tariff. We looked beyond Europe for our future in our great days of empire. We similarly must do the same now to meet the realities of what the world is going to look like in 2030 and beyond. Europe is in first order decline thanks to its lousy demographics and insular outlook. And Britain itself has been moving away from Europe in terms of % of trade for a long time now, and projected to do so well into the future as European GDP continues to decline as a share of world GDP.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You vote in competing directions. It is the honorable thing to do. Though I do have sympathy about your Mother in Law.
IS there invincible evidence that MiL would be ejected were Leave to win?
I am not convince that there is, any more than there is any evidence that all the expats would be chucked out of Spain.
There has been talk of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties 1969 on this board.
If it doesn't apply, then that will mean there will be no problem in getting a trade deal with the EU, unless everyone wants an additional refugee problem.
Alternatively, she can apply for indefinite leave to stay or claim British citizenship under the European Communities Act 1972.
If Leave win the European Communities Act is going to be repealed. But it is inconceivable that those with acquired rights (ie those already here or there in the case of Spain) will not have them respected.
I don't disagree with you, but there should be at least 2 years to get her citizenship.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
I think it could come well before 2020 if the expenses scandal comes to anything, and after a Euro collapse in 2018/2019 your scenario wouldn't be valid anyway.
Corbyn will win off the back of a sovereign debt crisis and calls for a radical non-austerity alternative, not as though it would have cat in hells chance of working - probably a bit like Syriza that they'd be forced by the markets to reverse on all the policies they came to office in very short order.
I well remember the threads on here 9 months ago after Corbyn won. As I said then on here, I thought there was a far higher possibility that he could become PM one day than all the Tory PB crowd believed at the time. Some of them are coming round to my view just 9 months later alas.
Nope. Corbyn will never be PM. Just not going to happen.
In a normal environment I would agree, the sovereign debt crisis / global depression once interest rates start rising is going to be far from normal. Extreme economics produces extreme politics. We're just seeing the start of that right now - Syriza, Hofer, Podemos / rise of Nationalist movements throughout Europe.
(Your posts are impossible to reply to because your messages are on top).
Though it would be interestin to watch 'Leave' cope with the mayhem after a Brext and to watch the humiliation of the Tories getting their worst ever result since it was founded and seeing Boris Gove IDS and Patel being chased out of the country by an impoverished mob with pitchforks having to seek refuge Alaska where no one's heard of them......
......the truth is that five days of schadenfreude wouldn't be worth it. You and I have our EU bolt hioles but what about the others?
Oh- thanks Roger. I did wonder why my comments always seemed to come at the top. I thought it was something to do with how my computer is set up.
Fox in the UK gave a great analogy yesterday about a friend's advice- the best 2 days you have when you get a boat is the day you buy it and the day you sell it. Sadly, I think that'll apply to Brexit- the Euphoria when we vote Brexit, will only be matched by the relief we have when we are accepted back.
Brexit may bring on the apocalypse, or it may usher in the new Jerusalem, but one thing you can be certain of: if we LEAVE we won't be returning in any pb-er's lifetime.
Because the very act of our LEAVING will cause the EU to integrate further, making it even MORE unpalatable to the British voter, and politically impossible to rejoin.
If we're out, we're out.
The EU would also split, Denmark and Sweden may leave too along with some Eastern European nations leaving just the Eurozone
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You should execute your instructions faithfully
"So honey, do you want me to exercise your proxy in a way that best ensures our happiness as a family? And when I say 'family', I'm talking specifically, about you, our two children, and me."
The Observer make clear in their article though that the new figures put Remain ahead
Two small matters stand out. One, despite their party line, a vast majority of PC supporters are for Brexit [ maybe, a sub-sample issue ] and , two, amongst the Don't Know's, there is a unbelieveably large number of Tory supporters. The Tory sub-sample is twice as large as Labour.
I think those Labour canvassers who found Labour voters for Brexit may not have come to terms with the fact that most of them are now UKIP.
Britain's future is engaging and trading with the whole world including the rise of Asia which will be the dominant economic power by 2030.
So we should close our borders and withdraw from the largest trading bloc on the planet.
Oh, wait...
No we should open our borders and withdraw from the largest protectionist bloc on the planet. The EU represents 7% of the world's population. We should be more interested in the remaining 93% who represent most of the planet's growth.
Gove's problem is that he gives the appearance of talking straight - and then fails to do so. Some examples (and please bear in mind that I was fully behind Gove's ideas when he was first appointed):
He said he would reduce teacher workload. He has increased it, not least by rushing through desirable changes so that publishers cannot keep pace - my new textbooks, which I need now to prepare for the new GCSE in September, are published in November;
He said he would make exams more rigorous. The new GCSEs and A-levels in the humanities (can't speak for maths or science) have considerably more content but are much less rigorous. The new A-level is about the same as the current GCSE (which is incidentally still harder than the iGCSE, contrary to Cambridge's claims);
He said he would reduce central control. The DfES now has more power and is more prone to micromanaging than at any time since 1871 (unfortunate, given the low quality of its staff);
He said he would make OFSTED less bureaucratic and prescriptive. The new inspection regime is more prescriptive and more bureaucratic, requiring for example additional paperwork and all school data to be held for 18-24 months rather than 12;
He said he would make schools more accountable to parents. Via academy chains, he has made them much less accountable.
Yes he ruffled some vested interests. That was inevitable. But the reason he was moved is because he had demonstrated he was an untrustworthy dogmatist who freely gave in to the biggest vested interest of all - the DfES. And that's why so few teachers have any time for him personally, even those who, like me, support the basic principles he claimed to be upholding.
*Betting Post* The publicity shy Paddy Power (to quote a PB favourite) are offering 80/1 on Valverde for Le Tour. While his chances of winning are very slim, I think he has a good shot for a place on the podium. I've taken a slice as an e/w bet. Nairo Quintana has imo a better chance than Froomy of taking yellow as I don't think he will make the same mistakes in the first week like last year (currently 2/1 on Betfair). As PfP says DYOR.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
It will be interesting to see who wins.
Hollande has already basically surrendered. This is just the punishment beating
Are you sure? Melissa Kidd at Redburn - who's not exactly a Euro-enthusiast - has a different view.
Based on a Times article a week or so ago. No more analysis than that
I'll forward you her piece on France from a week ago (I'm sure she won't mind). Her big analysis on the UK ("The Grasshopper") is also excellent.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
I find the whole situation rather odd, considering she can apply to make a postal vote in the next three days. Without wishing to be rude, if she doesn't have time to exercise her democratic right, why should that affect your vote?
I also find it a little irksome that you feel the need to reassure us that your mother in law doesn't claim benefits - placating the slavering hordes of Daily Mail outers you feel this site is infested with? I may object to the system, but I don't have an issue with an old lady claiming what she is legally entitled to. To be totally frank, you don't really give me the impression of particularly liking Leave or Leavers, or seem terribly convinced by the case for leaving. If you don't want to vote leave for any other reason, just don't vote Leave. It's your vote to use as you please.
@rcs1000 - is OGH away at the moment? I'm still waiting for clarification from him on what I can and cannot post about that infamous address.
Mr. Glenn, I can't speak for any ce if it returns to being a self-governing nation state. So the project fear which is all based around hypothetical short-term economic effects just wash over me. I shall vote accordingly.
Thanks for posting that. I share your lack of patience for narrow and short-term arguments about economics. I am also concerned with the future of Britain over the long term. I want it to be a better place to live and a country that better supports the aspirations of its people to do well.
We are currently living through an era of unprecedented globalisation which is leaving too many behind. Our political class and their opposite numbers in other Western countries have so far failed to find the right answers to deal with these trends. Against that background it might seem that opting out of the EU would make sense, or failing that, would send a message to the elites, but this would be merely a short-term cri de cœur.
We should never forget that Britain's future is inextricably linked with the future of Europe as a whole. We are an island nation in the literal sense only. What use is the satisfaction of independence if Europe burns around us? Conversely what is the price of independence if it means that Britain plays no role in the denouement of centuries of European rivalry as Europe takes its place in a newly globally-industrialised world? Britain is not a bit-part actor but a country that has earned its place at the centre of world hi
You mention globalisation in your first part, and then proceed to narrow your whole analysis to Europe. That just doesn't make any sense in a globalised world! Britain's future is engaging and trading with the whole world including the rise of Asia which will be the dominant economic power by 2030. The EU is increasingly inward looking, especially with the EU common external tariff. We looked beyond Europe for our future in our great days of empire. We similarly must do the same now to meet the realities of what the world is going to look like in 2030 and beyond. Europe is in first order decline thanks to its lousy demographics and insular outlook. And Britain itself has been moving away from Europe in terms of % of trade for a long time now, and projected to do so well into the future as European GDP continues to decline as a share of world GDP.
Europe is only 7% of the world's population but has 17% of the world's gdp, it was always inevitable its share of gdp would decline as areas like China and India with vast populations developed. China and India have stated they want the UK in the EU for trade deals etc but I doubt they feel strongly either way
On Topic. The living wage, just introduced, has many people feeling better. However the downside is many advertised jobs previously paying £9.50/£10 per hour are now appearing at lower rates.
Two months into the living wage, sure lots feel better off. In two years i suspect the opposite will apply.
There are 2 minor flaws with the Gove PM scenario- one he has the electoral appeal of a hungry ferret rummaging under your pants, and second he doesn't want it.
He's a lot more credible than BoJo. BoJo has never even held a proper cabinet job yet, BoJo should get a serious role in cabinet under Gove.
Electoral appeal depends in part upon what role someone is in. Leadership brings different challenges to taking on vested interests as Secretary of State. As an effective leader of the
He has a charming and disarming manner of reason that gets even critics to stop and listen to him. This has been said before even by critics in education, but has become clearly evident in this campaign too.
I think win or lose Gove is the biggest winner of this campaign so far. He has shown himself to be intelligent, charming and able to carry people along. Don't be so premature as to write him off based on surveys before he took the lead on this. Cometh the hour, cometh the man.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You should execute your instructions faithfully
"So honey, do you want me to exercise your proxy in a way that best ensures our happiness as a family? And when I say 'family', I'm talking specifically, about you, our two children, and me."
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You should execute your instructions faithfully
"So honey, do you want me to exercise your proxy in a way that best ensures our happiness as a family? And when I say 'family', I'm talking specifically, about you, our two children, and me."
You can, of course manipulate her to impact your instructions...ideally to secure the most flexible mandate possible...
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You should execute your instructions faithfully
"So honey, do you want me to exercise your proxy in a way that best ensures our happiness as a family? And when I say 'family', I'm talking specifically, about you, our two children, and me."
I would assume that you didn't marry a dunce. I would also assume that like all men (myself included) you have an inflated sense of your own worth within the family.
Work on the basis that your wife is equally as bright as you, will have worked out her own reasons for wanting to vote Remain and has just as much right to have her views respected as you do.
Britain's future is engaging and trading with the whole world including the rise of Asia which will be the dominant economic power by 2030.
So we should close our borders and withdraw from the largest trading bloc on the planet.
Oh, wait...
I want to trade with everyone, and as someone who is very pro-European, there is no distinction on that front between the EU and non-EU countries post-Brexit. And the EU countries need to trade with us far more than we need to trade with them.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
I find the whole situation rather odd, considering she can apply to make a postal vote in the next three days. Without wishing to be rude, if she doesn't have time to exercise her democratic right, why should that affect your vote?
I also find it a little irksome that you feel the need to reassure us that your mother in law doesn't claim benefits - placating the slavering hordes of Daily Mail outers you feel this site is infested with? I may object to the system, but I don't have an issue with an old lady claiming what she is legally entitled to. To be totally frank, you don't really give me the impression of particularly liking Leave or Leavers, or seem terribly convinced by the case for leaving. If you don't want to vote leave for any other reason, just don't vote Leave. It's your vote to use as you please.
@rcs1000 - is OGH away at the moment? I'm still waiting for clarification from him on what I can and cannot post about that infamous address.
I think he's around: I've just gotten back from Corfu myself.
As an aside, Greece is *really* cheap compared to a decade ago. We ate (two adults, two children) at a bunch of excellent local tavernas, including wine, for around EUR60 a meal. The nearest restaraunt to our hotel had wine at a staggeringly cheap EUR1.50/glass. And the wine wasn't bad either.
I'm sorry that my use of statistics offends you. Clearly what you know from your heart is far more reliable.
When one is faced with what one can see and government statistics, the temptation to believe that the evidence of one's eyes tends to be more reliable is very powerful.
Perhaps.
But usually the correct course of action is to get out more.
Err, that's what your original interlocutor was suggesting to you.
The plural of anecdote is not data. Usually when people say things like "everyone I know is voting Leave", they are looking too narrowly.
Statistics, on the other hand, are compiled with the intention of being comprehensive. They are not necessarily accurate but we are blessed in this country with an impartial and very able statistics-gathering service.
But I appreciate that the new Leave line to take is that experts are to be disregarded, so perhaps I'm wasting my energy.
Please don't waste your energy trying to patronise me, Mr. Meeks.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
Why would the electorate want revenge when they themselves voted for Brexit? Personally I think Corbyn has a low ceiling but a high floor, ie today's Opinium still has Labour on the 30% they got at the last general election. I cannot see Corbyn winning the next election but his best hope would be for a narrow Remain and then Leave voting Tories shifting to UKIP producing a hung parliament under FPTP and giving him the chance of a deal with the SNP, Plaid, the SDLP and the Greens etc. I still think the Tories would form a minority government in such circumstances with backing from the DUP and UKIP but it is his best chance
The electorate would want revenge because they would consider that they had been taken for a ride by Leave politicians if their promises don't materialise. They would exonerate themselves from having voted for Brexit because they would believe they had been lied to. The electorate are very fickle and the political landscape can change overnight.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You should execute your instructions faithfully
"So honey, do you want me to exercise your proxy in a way that best ensures our happiness as a family? And when I say 'family', I'm talking specifically, about you, our two children, and me."
I would assume that you didn't marry a dunce. I would also assume that like all men (myself included) you have an inflated sense of your own worth within the family.
Work on the basis that your wife is equally as bright as you, will have worked out her own reasons for wanting to vote Remain and has just as much right to have her views respected as you do.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
Why would the electorate want revenge when they themselves voted for Brexit? Personally I think Corbyn has a low ceiling but a high floor, ie today's Opinium still has Labour on the 30% they got at the last general election. I cannot see Corbyn winning the next election but his best hope would be for a narrow Remain and then Leave voting Tories shifting to UKIP producing a hung parliament under FPTP and giving him the chance of a deal with the SNP, Plaid, the SDLP and the Greens etc. I still think the Tories would form a minority government in such circumstances with backing from the DUP and UKIP but it is his best chance
The electorate would want revenge because they would consider that they had been taken for a ride by Leave politicians if their promises don't materialise. They would exonerate themselves from having voted for Brexit because they would believe they had been lied to. The electorate are very fickle and the political landscape can change overnight.
Well surely that would lead to a return to government by Osborne then, on the basis that all his scare stories were right, I fail to see why it would benefit Corbyn?
Britain's future is engaging and trading with the whole world including the rise of Asia which will be the dominant economic power by 2030.
So we should close our borders and withdraw from the largest trading bloc on the planet.
Oh, wait...
I want to trade with everyone, and as someone who is very pro-European, there is no distinction on that front between the EU and non-EU countries post-Brexit. And the EU countries need to trade with us far more than we need to trade with them.
Don't forget that the Brexit camp are saying they want out of the single market as well which would leave us in the company of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova...
Britain's future is engaging and trading with the whole world including the rise of Asia which will be the dominant economic power by 2030.
So we should close our borders and withdraw from the largest trading bloc on the planet.
Oh, wait...
I want to trade with everyone, and as someone who is very pro-European, there is no distinction on that front between the EU and non-EU countries post-Brexit. And the EU countries need to trade with us far more than we need to trade with them.
Don't forget that the Brexit camp are saying they want out of the single market as well which would leave us in the company of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova...
The USA, China, India, Brazil, Canada and the 93% of the world's population who are not in the EEA.
My wife has asked me to be her proxy in the Euro elections (she's going to be in Rome on the 23rd). As her mother is Portuguese, but lives in the UK (don't worry she doesn't claim a penny in benefits), she's quite keen for her to be able to stay.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
You should execute your instructions faithfully
"So honey, do you want me to exercise your proxy in a way that best ensures our happiness as a family? And when I say 'family', I'm talking specifically, about you, our two children, and me."
I would assume that you didn't marry a dunce. I would also assume that like all men (myself included) you have an inflated sense of your own worth within the family.
Work on the basis that your wife is equally as bright as you, will have worked out her own reasons for wanting to vote Remain and has just as much right to have her views respected as you do.
Not quite sure what you're basing your ideas of broadband on, but you're wrong. Having lived in rural Gloucestershire and the heart of Wales literally sixty miles from the nearest large town, I have had constant access to reliable broadband since 2006. In fact, speeds in Cannock (pop c. 85,000) are rather slower than they were in Clifford's Mesne (pop. c. 200) I think because there is more pressure on the phone exchange. When I spent some time in Kettlewell in Yorkshire a couple of years ago, they told me they had already gone over to fibre optic, although I'm not sure how they managed it (assuming they were telling the truth, of course). Therefore, your suggestion is not plausible.
The likeliest explanation is that people who voted Tory simply don't have time to fill in polls online or over the phone as they are too busy. That's apparently what the pollsters believe and I have to say it sounds plausible. Now remember people in rural areas usually have major amounts of travel time as well and you see the possible problem.
So why are we subsidising B.T to switch rural areas over to Broadband if there is no problem? Not saying your wrong you know more about this than I do but we the number of times we are told we have an issue with rural connection......
Mr. Glenn, I can't speak for any ce if it returns to being a self-governing nation state. So the project fear which is all based around hypothetical short-term economic effects just wash over me. I shall vote accordingly.
Thanks for posting that. I share your lack of patience for narrow and short-term arguments about economics. I am also concerned with the future of Britain over the long term. I want it to be a better place to live and a country that better supports the aspirations of its people to do well.
We are currently living through an era of unprecedented globalisation which is leaving too many behind. Our political class and their opposite numbers in other Western countries have so far failed to find the right answers to deal with these trends. Against that background it might seem that opting out of the EU would make sense, or failing that, would send a message to the elites, but this would be merely a short-term cri de cœur.
We should never forget that Britain's future is inextricably linked with the future of Europe as a whole. We are an island nation in the literal sense only. What use is the satisfaction of independence if Europe burns around us? Conversely what is the price of independence if it means that Britain plays no role in the denouement of centuries of European rivalry as Europe takes its place in a newly globally-industrialised world? Britain is not a bit-part actor but a country that has earned its place at the centre of world hi
You mention gld GDP.
Europe is only 7% of the world's population but has 17% of the world's gdp, it was always inevitable its share of gdp would decline as areas like China and India with vast populations developed. China and India have stated they want the UK in the EU for trade deals etc but I doubt they feel strongly either way
China and India are worried that in the event of a Brexit that the EU will become even more insular and inward-looking....which is understandable from their view point. But as I've said during this campaign before, a Brexit sets off a domino effect of Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leaving the EU. And polls amongst other EU countries show that their residents see that reality too. So they'll have a whole lot more trade negotiations to undertake.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
I think Corbyn is taking a very risky gamble. If Labour more or less sits it out Leave could win. It then goes horribly wrong and hey presto he wins a GE in 2020.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
Why would the electorate want revenge when they themselves voted for Brexit? Personally I think Corbyn has a low ceiling but a high floor, ie today's Opinium still has Labour on the 30% they got at the last general election. I cannot see Corbyn winning the next election but his best hope would be for a narrow Remain and then Leave voting Tories shifting to UKIP producing a hung parliament under FPTP and giving him the chance of a deal with the SNP, Plaid, the SDLP and the Greens etc. I still think the Tories would form a minority government in such circumstances with backing from the DUP and UKIP but it is his best chance
The electorate would want revenge because they would consider that they had been taken for a ride by Leave politicians if their promises don't materialise. They would exonerate themselves from having voted for Brexit because they would believe they had been lied to. The electorate are very fickle and the political landscape can change overnight.
Well surely that would lead to a return to government by Osborne then, on the basis that all his scare stories were right, I fail to see why it would benefit Corbyn?
It probably depends on which scare story turns out to be true on Brexit. It seems many (most?) voting for Leave are doing so because of migration. It'll take years to turn that around and introduce a points system and all the rest of it. It seems likely that it will not even be possible and still get a trade deal. Will the electorate give Brexit Tories years to sort it out or will they have been expecting an immediate cut to 10s of 1000s?
I took that test yesterday. Apparently I'm a Europhile along with 9% of the population. Obviously neither part of the result surprises me greatly. Though I never use the words europhile or europhobe myself as they are horribly ugly words.
Mr Meeks - having bashed some of you recent headers, I must congratulate you this time on a very well reasoned and thought provoking piece.
However, the piece I think that is missing is that the 'feel good' factor being measured is somewhat of a leading indicator, particularly in times of uncertainty. If people think their future earnings are uncertain, they feel less confident. If they feel their future prospects are good, even before real disposable income increases, their feel good factor goes up.
I am not sure what this does for your attempt to link all this to the EuroRef, but it does at least offer an explanation as to why people can both feel good and be angry about certain specific policies.
Comments
Fox in the UK gave a great analogy yesterday about a friend's advice- the best 2 days you have when you get a boat is the day you buy it and the day you sell it. Sadly, I think that'll apply to Brexit- the Euphoria when we vote Brexit, will only be matched by the relief we have when we are accepted back.
In many respects, the original vision of Cameronism - from c.2006-c.2011 - true devolution of power to the people, and a strong society - cannot be fulfilled unless we *do* Brexit.
Why shouldn't I?
So what next? A Death Star in the form of ..... Heath's body? Or Churchill's?
I wonder if even in some city seats there are rural areas with bad connection and more likely to vote tory in place like Sutton and Cheam? And this accounts for the difference in polling in the E.U ref? I bet there are some areas with bad lanline connections let alone online.
So, campers: do I use this as an opportunity to not vote at all (her proxy and my physical cancel each other out); 'forget' to vote on her behalf'; or go down and vote for the two of us (in two competing directions)?
(I would note that I would prefer my mother in law to live in Portugal.)
To describe such a model as archaic would be generous, it fits better with Morris Dancer's obsessions (and I don't mean F1). The consequence of such a model has been the EU rapidly shrinking as a share of world GDP, structural unemployment and an ever greater struggle to maintain the welfare state that we believe we are entitled to.
The only country to make a serious success of this was Germany and they did so by undermining the whole system. Until very recently they had no minimum wage at all, they have used both monetary and fiscal policy to drive exports and restrain domestic demand and they have used the Euro to build in a competitive advantage over their supposed friends.
France wanted to believe they could remain like France and did not need to become more like Germany but the truth is they can't. They need to restore competitiveness not only within the EU but with the rest of the world. And the EU as a body is simply not designed to deal with those problems.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/british-government-sent-ballots-to-eu-citizens-for-brexit/
Out of common courtesy I would only cast his vote in the direction that he has asked me to.
I have to say that his best (only?) hope of winning in 2020 is if we Leave and it proves to be such a disaster that the backlash pushes him over the line. Within a few months of a Leave win the Tories will be led by someone very closely identified with Brexit - if it goes tits up the electorate's desire for revenge will be fulsome.
Can anyone really think of a better scenario for winning the GE from Corbyn's point of view?
I am not convince that there is, any more than there is any evidence that all the expats would be chucked out of Spain.
That said has she 'compensated' you for that first class upgrade ? If not, you'd be within your rights to cast her vote for Leave.
It's the sort of question we should be asking as the advances of automation, robotics, machine learning and so on are going to change employment and leave a lot of people behind in their employability.
The mother-in-law bit reminds me of a Les Dawson joke.
He's walking with his wife, and sees his mother-in-law being given a kicking by six men.
"Aren't you going to help?" his wife asks.
"Six ought to be enough."
You should execute your instructions faithfully
The Tories have a dwindling membership that is older and much more right wing and eurosceptic than their own supporters let alone the broader electorate. Labour has a similar problem in reverse.
I think those Labour canvassers who found Labour voters for Brexit may not have come to terms with the fact that most of them are now UKIP.
We are currently living through an era of unprecedented globalisation which is leaving too many behind. Our political class and their opposite numbers in other Western countries have so far failed to find the right answers to deal with these trends. Against that background it might seem that opting out of the EU would make sense, or failing that, would send a message to the elites, but this would be merely a short-term cri de cœur.
We should never forget that Britain's future is inextricably linked with the future of Europe as a whole. We are an island nation in the literal sense only. What use is the satisfaction of independence if Europe burns around us? Conversely what is the price of independence if it means that Britain plays no role in the denouement of centuries of European rivalry as Europe takes its place in a newly globally-industrialised world? Britain is not a bit-part actor but a country that has earned its place at the centre of world history. We have an opportunity, and a duty, to work together to make Europe great again. Only through playing our full part in this process will Britain be a place that allows its sons and daughters to fulfil their potential.
Corbyn will win off the back of a sovereign debt crisis and calls for a radical non-austerity alternative, not as though it would have cat in hells chance of working - probably a bit like Syriza that they'd be forced by the markets to reverse on all the policies they came to office in very short order.
I well remember the threads on here 9 months ago after Corbyn won. As I said then on here, I thought there was a far higher possibility that he could become PM one day than all the Tory PB crowd believed at the time. Some of them are coming round to my view just 9 months later alas.
If it doesn't apply, then that will mean there will be no problem in getting a trade deal with the EU, unless everyone wants an additional refugee problem.
Alternatively, she can apply for indefinite leave to stay or claim British citizenship under the European Communities Act 1972.
I still think leave need to be around 55pc in a forced choice no don't knows to compensate for late swing and pollsters not including Gibraltar / Northern Ireland in their samples.
One of the critical things leave need to do over the next 18 days is to hammer home the message that there is no 'status quo' in this election in order to counter the status quo narrative that Remain are peddling which is a complete myth. Nothing ever remains the same long term. I well remember the critical question in the Farage Clegg EU debate a few years ago - what will the EU look like in 10 years time? Clegg said pretty much the same as today to well deserved derision from the audience.
"And nothing ever happens, nothing happens at all
The needle returns to the start of the song
And we all sing along like before..."
I also find it a little irksome that you feel the need to reassure us that your mother in law doesn't claim benefits - placating the slavering hordes of Daily Mail outers you feel this site is infested with? I may object to the system, but I don't have an issue with an old lady claiming what she is legally entitled to. To be totally frank, you don't really give me the impression of particularly liking Leave or Leavers, or seem terribly convinced by the case for leaving. If you don't want to vote leave for any other reason, just don't vote Leave. It's your vote to use as you please.
Not quite sure what you're basing your ideas of broadband on, but you're wrong. Having lived in rural Gloucestershire and the heart of Wales literally sixty miles from the nearest large town, I have had constant access to reliable broadband since 2006. In fact, speeds in Cannock (pop c. 85,000) are rather slower than they were in Clifford's Mesne (pop. c. 200) I think because there is more pressure on the phone exchange. When I spent some time in Kettlewell in Yorkshire a couple of years ago, they told me they had already gone over to fibre optic, although I'm not sure how they managed it (assuming they were telling the truth, of course). Therefore, your suggestion is not plausible.
The likeliest explanation is that people who voted Tory simply don't have time to fill in polls online or over the phone as they are too busy. That's apparently what the pollsters believe and I have to say it sounds plausible. Now remember people in rural areas usually have major amounts of travel time as well and you see the possible problem.
The second rule of the embargoed polling club is you do not talk about embargoed polling.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3625930/Dominatrix-claimed-saw-George-Osborne-snorting-cocaine-appear-Big-Brother.html
They better make sure they have that 7 second delay working...
Oh, wait...
Gove's problem is that he gives the appearance of talking straight - and then fails to do so. Some examples (and please bear in mind that I was fully behind Gove's ideas when he was first appointed):
He said he would reduce teacher workload. He has increased it, not least by rushing through desirable changes so that publishers cannot keep pace - my new textbooks, which I need now to prepare for the new GCSE in September, are published in November;
He said he would make exams more rigorous. The new GCSEs and A-levels in the humanities (can't speak for maths or science) have considerably more content but are much less rigorous. The new A-level is about the same as the current GCSE (which is incidentally still harder than the iGCSE, contrary to Cambridge's claims);
He said he would reduce central control. The DfES now has more power and is more prone to micromanaging than at any time since 1871 (unfortunate, given the low quality of its staff);
He said he would make OFSTED less bureaucratic and prescriptive. The new inspection regime is more prescriptive and more bureaucratic, requiring for example additional paperwork and all school data to be held for 18-24 months rather than 12;
He said he would make schools more accountable to parents. Via academy chains, he has made them much less accountable.
Yes he ruffled some vested interests. That was inevitable. But the reason he was moved is because he had demonstrated he was an untrustworthy dogmatist who freely gave in to the biggest vested interest of all - the DfES. And that's why so few teachers have any time for him personally, even those who, like me, support the basic principles he claimed to be upholding.
The publicity shy Paddy Power (to quote a PB favourite) are offering 80/1 on Valverde for Le Tour.
While his chances of winning are very slim, I think he has a good shot for a place on the podium.
I've taken a slice as an e/w bet.
Nairo Quintana has imo a better chance than Froomy of taking yellow as I don't think he will make the same mistakes in the first week like last year (currently 2/1 on Betfair).
As PfP says DYOR.
The living wage, just introduced, has many people feeling better.
However the downside is many advertised jobs previously paying £9.50/£10 per hour are now
appearing at lower rates.
Two months into the living wage, sure lots feel better off.
In two years i suspect the opposite will apply.
He has a charming and disarming manner of reason that gets even critics to stop and listen to him. This has been said before even by critics in education, but has become clearly evident in this campaign too.
I think win or lose Gove is the biggest winner of this campaign so far. He has shown himself to be intelligent, charming and able to carry people along. Don't be so premature as to write him off based on surveys before he took the lead on this. Cometh the hour, cometh the man.
Work on the basis that your wife is equally as bright as you, will have worked out her own reasons for wanting to vote Remain and has just as much right to have her views respected as you do.
Cast her vote as she has asked.
As an aside, Greece is *really* cheap compared to a decade ago. We ate (two adults, two children) at a bunch of excellent local tavernas, including wine, for around EUR60 a meal. The nearest restaraunt to our hotel had wine at a staggeringly cheap EUR1.50/glass. And the wine wasn't bad either.
The electorate are very fickle and the political landscape can change overnight.
I can't stand them, mind.
https://eurometer.news.sky.com/
https://youtu.be/cVJZTxbCaKA
However, the piece I think that is missing is that the 'feel good' factor being measured is somewhat of a leading indicator, particularly in times of uncertainty. If people think their future earnings are uncertain, they feel less confident. If they feel their future prospects are good, even before real disposable income increases, their feel good factor goes up.
I am not sure what this does for your attempt to link all this to the EuroRef, but it does at least offer an explanation as to why people can both feel good and be angry about certain specific policies.