I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
Hoey in that video makes a great point that Labour BME activists are out campaigning for Leave - they see it as the way to level the immigration field.
John N4- a superb post. I think pulling out of Europe will make matters much worse since it will essentially create huge uncertainty, and governance issues for years to come, but you eloquently set out why people are pissed off.
"Where did it all go right? The bare statistics are breathtaking. Even looking in percentage terms, employment rates are at all time highs, unemployment rates are at 10 year lows and the economic inactivity rate is also at a joint all time low (tying with 1990). Job vacancies are hovering just below their all time highs. Most of the economically inactive are students, stay-at-home mums or the retired. So why are so many voters so angry?"
Are you serious? Most towns are falling apart (been to Derby, Mansfield, Margate, Preston recently?), personal debt is sky high, and wages and conditions in many sectors and areas of life are falling, with no sign of a light at the end of a tunnel. Socially you can hardly walk down the street or stand in a post office (outside of Knightsbridge - I'm talking about outside of Knightsbridge, OK? ) without having your senses assaulted by scammers. Education levels are at the bottom of the barrel, as you can tell just by talking to many people and seeing how deluded, ignorant, intellectually lazy and without hope they are. Unemployment in most parts of the country is very high in the poorer part of the working class. Have you heard of food banks? Have you been to a supermarket recently and noticed those boxes where people can donate food to the hungry? And the shelves where you can buy things like half a dozen eggs, some margarine and a loaf of white bread if that's all you can afford and the alternative is not to eat? A bit of public relations, to stave off the thought that one day the supermarket companies that make such huge profits might be the target of angry people. Those who don't know about what's happening to the country need to get out of Waitrose, the wine bar and paid-for academia some more.
"However, the evidence that immigration has reduced wages in aggregate is actually fairly weak: as a matter of common sense if employment rates are at an all-time high, job vacancies are near their all time highs and unemployment rates are at ten year lows, this cannot be anything like the only or even main explanation for low pay rises."
Official unemployment rates are cow poop. So are job vacancy figures. Have you asked for quotes recently for building work? Where have all the British workers gone? The reference to "common sense" can be the last refuge of an ostrich. "Common sense" - and for anyone who lives outside of chatterer-land, the evidence - shows that Eastern European immigrants are willing to work for lower wages and so the employers then cut the wages they're offering. If trade unionism were stronger and welcoming towards immigrants, then that wouldn't be the case. But sadly it isn't.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I doubt very much that the rest of the press have ignored it, very naive to think other papers wont now be digging around for stuff to embarrass the Leave campaign. I'd wait to see what else comes out before you dismiss it.
Do you have any evidence that GCHQ were behind the stories on Farage or is that just another wild Leave conspiracy theory ?
I think you misread CCHQ - conservative central office!
He may not be right, but it's not really a wild conspiracy theory...
More utterly ridiculous scaremongering on mortgage rates from Remain this morning, and with a number plucked out of thin air. Mortgage rates are going to go up irrespective of which side wins thanks to the sovereign debt crisis. And thanks to interest rates remaining on the floor over the past 8 years (as I predicted they would) we now have an emerging pensions crisis - which we're seeing in the form of British Steel, BHS etc starting to emerge.
And remind me which country has the lowest central bank interest rate in Europe - yes the remainers guessed it alright - Switzerland. You really couldn't make up the economic illiterate $hit that Remain are producing during this campaign.
@politicshome: Tory minister Andrea Leadsom insists Vote Leave suggestions are not an alternative manifesto for government. @SkyMurnaghan
So the pledges are not things that will happen.
If Scotland had voted for independence, do you think they would now be on the way to the socialist paradise promised in the referendum?
If the UK votes for Brexit we're no more likely to see any of the rosy outcomes being peddled by the Leave campaign. Politics will be volatile and unpredictable and you couldn't rule out a swing towards an Old Labour style regime.
I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
Hoey in that video makes a great point that Labour BME activists are out campaigning for Leave - they see it as the way to level the immigration field.
I'm sorry that my use of statistics offends you. Clearly what you know from your heart is far more reliable.
When one is faced with what one can see and government statistics, the temptation to believe that the evidence of one's eyes tends to be more reliable is very powerful.
Does Mr Meeks have any evidence to suggest that Leave voters are angry about the EU or anything else for that matter?
I will be voting to Leave the EU - but it's not something that makes me angry. As a 29 year old living at home with my parents, what makes me angry is having had interest rates of 0.5% for 7 years combined with a Chancellor intent on pumping up a housing bubble. Furthermore, I despair that seven years after the last recession, our Chancellor is running a budget a deficit of £76bn and doesn't appear to have the appetite for doing anything about it.
If you're so worried about the deficit then why are you voting for something that will make it worse, at least in the short term?
worse according to an infamous Treasury forecast....
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
And this a problem for all of the wealthy tories fronting the leave campaign
@jessphillips: Daniel Hannan MEP says he will have a cushy job in Private sector if we leave,bully for you mate,perhaps it's easier for you to take a risk
Is she saying she is unemployable in the private sector?
Or that Britons employed or subsidised by the EU can't find jobs in the private sector?
I wouldn't put it past a lot of Labour voters to secretly vote Leave.
It will be the biggest miscalculation of the Remain campaign, expecting Labour to row behind Remain. That Cameron and Osborne have to rely on them - the same Cameron and Osborne so loved by these same Labour voters - is surely the most woeful strategy of this campaign. The best most of them are going to do to help out the Toffs is to Remain sat on their arses on polling day...
''Hoey in that video makes a great point that Labour BME activists are out campaigning for Leave - they see it as the way to level the immigration field.''
Its also lazy thinking, both in Britain and America, to assume that immigrants are always for more immigration.
Just because someone is a US Latino, that does not mean he or she wants to import half of Mexico.
Tim Montgomerie ن Verified account @montie Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted LEAVE.EU Odd that so many Labour voters back @vote_leave but so few Labour MPs have any sympathy for #Brexit. Groupthink?
If any of the mainstream political journalists had an ounce of economic sense then maybe they should ask the following question of Mr Cameron:
You intend as a government to keep on borrowing year after year as a government. If I as a private individual went to my bank manager and proposed to do that, what interest rate do you think they would charge me long term?
And if Cameron came back with the stock response of getting the budget back into balance, just gently remind him that he promised it by LAST YEAR so his response is just not credible.
Judging by John Major this morning, in childcare terms, REMAIN are going through the Terrible Twos.
The most concerning thing about his interview was his suggestion that if Leave win the vote could be open to question because of the claims made by Leave.
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
Bastards took down John Major's government
And the same bastards are trying to do the same to Cameron
And in both cases you blame the party leader who won the election...
Aye, right.
John Major took down his own government. The ERM debacle enraged Conservative voters. If you want to know why the the Conservatives lost seats like Southgate, Hendon, Brent North on 18% swings, that's the reason.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
And when all those English and Welsh football fans come back home and tell their mates what is happening there then they will quite rightly ask why there is a mainstream blackout on the coverage.
Tim Montgomerie ن Verified account @montie Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted LEAVE.EU Odd that so many Labour voters back @vote_leave but so few Labour MPs have any sympathy for #Brexit. Groupthink?
Hoey kept pointing out the yawning gap between what the high-ups in Labour thought vs a huge chunk of their voters.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
You must admit tyson that it would stop British politicians being to use the EU as a cheap excuse?
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
Bastards took down John Major's government
And the same bastards are trying to do the same to Cameron
And in both cases you blame the party leader who won the election...
Aye, right.
John Major took down his own government. The ERM debacle enraged Conservative voters. If you want to know why the the Conservatives lost seats like Southgate, Hendon, Brent North on 18% swings, that's the reason.
This is personal for Sir John.
And it shows.
I didn't watch it - but it sounds awfully personal and ugly. Having watched him do it earlier in the campaign, I've no desire to endure it again with knobs on.
What is clear from the somewhat febrile nature of this thread, the wall to wall politicians in the TV studios and the ever more exaggerated claims by both sides is that this is still up for grabs. As a tentative leaver I never really expected that. I expected Cameron, the establishment and project fear to be at least 10 points clear and probably moving away by now.
If Leave win it is uncertain the Conservative party will recover. Cameron and Osborne have together led them out of the Blair wilderness into power and then into a majority. And they will both be destroyed. I am very sad about that. Unlike many leavers on here I continue to have great respect for both of them for what they have done for both the country and the party. The Conservative party is a more liberal, socially tolerant and open minded organisation than it was 10 years ago and they deserve the credit for that.
I also wonder if the bitterness that their destruction is going to cause will ever be capable of being repaired. A Leaver will take the leadership but who amongst the Remainers will be willing to serve? We may well have a situation similar to Labour where most of the experience and talent (I use the word in a strictly relevant sense of course) sits on the back benchers.
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
Because teachers do not like to be questioned, even when our education system is failing our children.
Or alternatively, and in the real world, whilst some of the changes were good, some have and still are upsetting parents. And he was seen as a liability electorally. Sorry, I know he's the new deity, but he wasn't moved because teachers, there aren't enough of them and they're(mainly) too left wing to make any difference in all but the most marginal of seats. There's a lot of parents though.
Breaking news - the previously UNDECIDED Johnny Mercer backs Remain.
I'm shocked.
I suspect most of the "undecided" Tory MPs will back remain possibly hoping their late conversion goes under the radar. A rumour is circulating that Leavers on the prospective candidates list are being purged by the vengeful Cameron machine.
Mr. Hunchman, the mainstream TV media are often at odds with viewers (cf the migrant crisis and bleeding hearts reporters) or just fail to report things (crimes in Dusseldorf, Cologne, Sweden etc).
Mr. L, that's possible. UKIP, unexpectedly, could have an even better strategic situation than last time, with both major parties significantly divided.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
You must admit tyson that it would stop British politicians being to use the EU as a cheap excuse?
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
Because teachers do not like to be questioned, even when our education system is failing our children.
Or alternatively, and in the real world, whilst some of the changes were good, some have and still are upsetting parents. And he was seen as a liability electorally. Sorry, I know he's the new deity, but he wasn't moved because teachers, there aren't enough of them and they're(mainly) too left wing to make any difference in all but the most marginal of seats. There's a lot of parents though.
Is there a need to be sarky?
Gove is truly underrated. Education secretaries are rarely popular.
His moves towards reforming prisons are truly liberal. His straight talking would prove popular after the mealy mouth of Cameron and Osborne.
I'm sorry that my use of statistics offends you. Clearly what you know from your heart is far more reliable.
When one is faced with what one can see and government statistics, the temptation to believe that the evidence of one's eyes tends to be more reliable is very powerful.
Perhaps.
But usually the correct course of action is to get out more.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
You must admit tyson that it would stop British politicians being to use the EU as a cheap excuse?
I'm not really that good at understanding such mixed metaphors....translation please kind sir?
And the EU got £8.5 billion net from the UK (in 2015), while a country as populous as like India got only £279 million (2015). That's only 23p per Indian.
Are you really comparing membership of the largest free market on the planet with our International aid and development budget?
That is unworthy, even for you.
The thing is that our trade with non-EU countries is broadly in balance, whereas we have a massive and persistent deficit with EU countries. That means the Single Market is working far better for EU companies selling to us than it is for our companies selling to them. We're actually performing far better with those countries which do not share a single Market with us.
If I thought voting Leave would genuinely make the UK materially worse off, I would seriously think twice about voting for it.
The truth is that the EU (as currently constituted) is not an economic asset to the UK, has been more-or-less stagnant for 8 years, that future economic growth will be global, and that that world is, truly, our oyster, and I believe that we will (all) be materially better off in the medium-long term having the tools and powers to regulate our own economy.
What's driving the vote to keep us in is the sheer inertia of our existing business and economic models, established post-Suez axioms that British influence is predicted on our membership, and a few softer factors around fear of change and its potential disruption to the existing international order.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
I've never said that leaving the EU will lead to economic nirvana. We have a 7% current account deficit, a £75bn annual deficit 7 years on from 2008. We have a national deficit that doesn't take into account unfunded future pensions and welfare state benefits, and we have many long term cycles just starting to really raise their head - civil unrest cycle rising into 2020, war cycle rising into around 2024, grand solar minimum that will bottom in the early 2030's with cold weather threatening agriculture as it is already starting to. And we have Asia that will become the economic centre of the world by around 2030 too. Remaining or leaving in 18 days time is going to change any of these stark long term realities. However the days of the EU are numbered, the Euro is on its last legs and once it collapses over the next 3 years the whole idea of the EU will fall apart anyway. Its time to get out and adjust to reality in the new world than be tied into its all too predictable collapse.
What is clear from the somewhat febrile nature of this thread, the wall to wall politicians in the TV studios and the ever more exaggerated claims by both sides is that this is still up for grabs. As a tentative leaver I never really expected that. I expected Cameron, the establishment and project fear to be at least 10 points clear and probably moving away by now.
If Leave win it is uncertain the Conservative party will recover. Cameron and Osborne have together led them out of the Blair wilderness into power and then into a majority. And they will both be destroyed. I am very sad about that. Unlike many leavers on here I continue to have great respect for both of them for what they have done for both the country and the party. The Conservative party is a more liberal, socially tolerant and open minded organisation than it was 10 years ago and they deserve the credit for that.
I also wonder if the bitterness that their destruction is going to cause will ever be capable of being repaired. A Leaver will take the leadership but who amongst the Remainers will be willing to serve? We may well have a situation similar to Labour where most of the experience and talent (I use the word in a strictly relevant sense of course) sits on the back benchers.
The vast majority of Remainers would simply go where patronage flows. Which is exactly what they're doing at the moment. A small minority of passionately pro-EU MP's might refuse to serve, but can you name any in that category? I can't. There would be more in the House of Lords.
Breaking news - the previously UNDECIDED Johnny Mercer backs Remain.
I'm shocked.
I suspect most of the "undecided" Tory MPs will back remain possibly hoping their late conversion goes under the radar. A rumour is circulating that Leavers on the prospective candidates list are being purged by the vengeful Cameron machine.
Mine came out for Leave about 10 days ago. I think she's seen the size of the Leave campaign locally. She always sounded more like a Remainer until then.
Because its in another country and our media is far more interested in that which affects us directly/celebrity deaths.
It will affect all the footy fans going over there in the next week as well as all the summer holidaymakers there! But we can't be seen to be showing other EU member states in crisis at this sensitive time can we?
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
Because teachers do not like to be questioned, even when our education system is failing our children.
Or alternatively, and in the real world, whilst some of the changes were good, some have and still are upsetting parents. And he was seen as a liability electorally. Sorry, I know he's the new deity, but he wasn't moved because teachers, there aren't enough of them and they're(mainly) too left wing to make any difference in all but the most marginal of seats. There's a lot of parents though.
Is there a need to be sarky?
Gove is truly underrated. Education secretaries are rarely popular.
His moves towards reforming prisons are truly liberal. His straight talking would prove popular after the mealy mouth of Cameron and Osborne.
Straight talking? He directly lied to the member of the audience worried about whether she would still be able to retire to France.
The only way Cameron (and Osborne) survive this if remain does squeak it is to be utterly ruthless, otherwise their authority is gone.
I think Osborne could be up for the challenge. But I doubt Cameron would be....the speaking tour, lucrative board contracts and some down time and nice Caribbean holidays with Samantha presents a more appealing alternative than bloodily dispatching the Tory loons.
Breaking news - the previously UNDECIDED Johnny Mercer backs Remain.
I'm shocked.
I suspect most of the "undecided" Tory MPs will back remain possibly hoping their late conversion goes under the radar. A rumour is circulating that Leavers on the prospective candidates list are being purged by the vengeful Cameron machine.
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
He created the Free Schools policy that allowed religious minorities (from immigrant stock or immigrants) to found their own schools within the State system. This accommodated the new arrivals which Labour had set its face against, despite all their multi-cultural rhetoric.
The fact that Alan Johnston (who was immediately moved to Health, incidentally) is for Remain and Gove is for Leave is the single most important reason I'm voting Leave.
Economics is not a science. Economic forecasting is not scientific. Pretending otherwise is childish. Basic honesty would require an error bar between - infinity and + infinity.
In 14 years, your family will be £4,300 worse off.
If a seven-year-old said that, we would smile indulgently.
Leave can talk nonsense now and say "Well, you started it."
I love the idea that HMT can forecast to within £100 what we'll experience 15yrs hence.
The TUC has gone two decimal places better - we'll be £38pw worse off.
With that talent, they really should be working in the City.
Good morning, still think it's "silly and childish" to suggest that the Leave campaign have a problem with waycists?
Yes. The Mail on Sunday have done a clone of their farage smearing stories on behalf of CCHQ last year and have found about four people in a population of 60 million who are so incredibly over the top you wonder who their handlers are - and rest of the press has ignored the story.
I doubt very much that the rest of the press have ignored it, very naive to think other papers wont now be digging around for stuff to embarrass the Leave campaign. I'd wait to see what else comes out before you dismiss it.
Do you have any evidence that GCHQ were behind the stories on Farage or is that just another wild Leave conspiracy theory ?
I think you misread CCHQ - conservative central office!
He may not be right, but it's not really a wild conspiracy theory...
Sorry, you are correct I did misread it. Apologies.
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
Because teachers do not like to be questioned, even when our education system is failing our children.
Or alternatively, and in the real world, whilst some of the changes were good, some have and still are upsetting parents. And he was seen as a liability electorally. Sorry, I know he's the new deity, but he wasn't moved because teachers, there aren't enough of them and they're(mainly) too left wing to make any difference in all but the most marginal of seats. There's a lot of parents though.
Is there a need to be sarky?
Gove is truly underrated. Education secretaries are rarely popular.
His moves towards reforming prisons are truly liberal. His straight talking would prove popular after the mealy mouth of Cameron and Osborne.
Straight talking? He directly lied to the member of the audience worried about whether she would still be able to retire to France.
The way France is going it may be very unattractive to retire to France until they get a Maggie Thatcher type of Leader to sort out their union problems. At present they seem to have a James Callaghan trying the reasonable and gradual approach and being met with a summer of discontent.
@politicshome: Tory minister Andrea Leadsom insists Vote Leave suggestions are not an alternative manifesto for government. @SkyMurnaghan
So the pledges are not things that will happen.
If Scotland had voted for independence, do you think they would now be on the way to the socialist paradise promised in the referendum?
If the UK votes for Brexit we're no more likely to see any of the rosy outcomes being peddled by the Leave campaign. Politics will be volatile and unpredictable and you couldn't rule out a swing towards an Old Labour style regime.
Mr. Glenn, I can't speak for anyone else and I cannot predict the future. What I can say is that my concerns and hence my vote have nothing to do with my future but for the Country my son will live in for the rest of his life (unless he follows my advice and emigrates). Most of my social set are also pensioners and without exception they are thinking along the same lines; its the future of their children and grandchildren that motivate them.
That there might be short term volatility if we leave the EU is, in my view, a given. That there might be a Labour government is also a given. However, I am looking beyond the next few years, and beyond the witless concentration of GDP, a term that few people understand. My question is is it more likely, in the medium to long term, that the UK will be a better place to live if it remains in or leaves the EU?
My view, and others disagree, is that the UK will be a better place if it returns to being a self-governing nation state. So the project fear which is all based around hypothetical short-term economic effects just wash over me. I shall vote accordingly.
There are 2 minor flaws with the Gove PM scenario- one he has the electoral appeal of a hungry ferret rummaging under your pants, and second he doesn't want it.
Mr. Hunchman, the mainstream TV media are often at odds with viewers (cf the migrant crisis and bleeding hearts reporters) or just fail to report things (crimes in Dusseldorf, Cologne, Sweden etc).
Mr. L, that's possible. UKIP, unexpectedly, could have an even better strategic situation than last time, with both major parties significantly divided.
Yes, just fail to report things when its convenient not to and against their narrative. So I'm glad that lots of people are seeing that you can't trust the mainstream media.
''Gove is the strongest MP in Parliament today in my eyes. I hope he becomes next PM.''
Absolutely, but he doesn't have the charisma needed for a modern Prime Minister and sensibly, he knows it. He'd rather be the power behind the throne.
That's why he and BoJo look, at least from the outside, like a good team. Gove does BoJo's detailed thinking for him, and BoJo is happy for that to happen.
@tnewtondunn: Big Gove line in @peston interview: we won't have left EU by 2020 under #Brexit, ie he'd delay Article 50. Unsure voters would allow that.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
"Intriguingly, polling done by a group close to the debate, which I’ve seen, suggests the Leave strategy could work. It shows that less than a quarter of voters think that their family will be significantly worse off if we leave the EU...
Even more worryingly for IN, when forced to choose, 60 percent of those polled opt for Britain regaining control of its immigration policy even if it means problems for trade, the economy and jobs. Now, this goes against the conventional assumption that voters ultimately vote on the economy."
@tnewtondunn: Big Gove line in @peston interview: we won't have left EU by 2020 under #Brexit, ie he'd delay Article 50. Unsure voters would allow that.
BoJo has sacrificed his entire career to date (and integrity) to get the keys. He's not going to let a "more credible" candidate beat him
Funny thing with democracy it isn't up to him. Gove is potentially more popular ... and most importantly more respected ... with both the MPs and the membership.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
''Gove is the strongest MP in Parliament today in my eyes. I hope he becomes next PM.''
Absolutely, but he doesn't have the charisma needed for a modern Prime Minister and sensibly, he knows it. He'd rather be the power behind the throne.
That's why he and BoJo look, at least from the outside, like a good team. Gove does BoJo's detailed thinking for him, and BoJo is happy for that to happen.
Bojo won over Labour-leaning London, not just once, but twice.
Breaking news - the previously UNDECIDED Johnny Mercer backs Remain.
I'm shocked.
I suspect most of the "undecided" Tory MPs will back remain possibly hoping their late conversion goes under the radar. A rumour is circulating that Leavers on the prospective candidates list are being purged by the vengeful Cameron machine.
Mine came out for Leave about 10 days ago. I think she's seen the size of the Leave campaign locally. She always sounded more like a Remainer until then.
I know of one very wet tory mp who has just STFU in fear of being deselected. When Cameron & Osborne are gone, CCHQ will provide no help to the circa 160 MPs in the REMAIN camp.
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
Because he was so successful in his job that he'd annoyed too many vested interests. Better that than another empty head who tries to not rock the boat.
Still, Gove is the only member of parliament who I would trust to write No, No, No! all over cabinet papers in red ink, like the blessed lady Margaret herself (PBUH).
(Your posts are impossible to reply to because your messages are on top).
Though it would be interesting to watch 'Leave' cope with the mayhem after a Brexit and to watch the humiliation of the Tories getting their worst ever result since it was founded and seeing Boris Gove IDS and Patel being chased out of the country by an impoverished mob with pitchforks having to seek refuge Alaska where no one's heard of them......
......the truth is that five days of schadenfreude wouldn't be worth it. You and I have our EU bolt holes but what about the others?
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
He created the Free Schools policy that allowed religious minorities (from immigrant stock or immigrants) to found their own schools within the State system. This accommodated the new arrivals which Labour had set its face against, despite all their multi-cultural rhetoric.
The fact that Alan Johnston (who was immediately moved to Health, incidentally) is for Remain and Gove is for Leave is the single most important reason I'm voting Leave.
So you agree with allowing Muslims to set up their own free schools?
I hardly think you can compare Corbyn to Napoleon. Next you'll be saying Boris is like Churchill.
A Brexit vote will be the end of Corbyn. His death might be a little slower and more painful than Cameron's, but it'll come before the end of the year.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
Agreed. And actually quite similar to Major's mismanagement in the 90s.
Bastards took down John Major's government
And the same bastards are trying to do the same to Cameron
And in both cases you blame the party leader who won the election...
Aye, right.
John Major took down his own government. The ERM debacle enraged Conservative voters. If you want to know why the the Conservatives lost seats like Southgate, Hendon, Brent North on 18% swings, that's the reason.
This is personal for Sir John.
And it shows.
I didn't watch it - but it sounds awfully personal and ugly. Having watched him do it earlier in the campaign, I've no desire to endure it again with knobs on.
To think I campaigned tirelessly on the streets of Eltham 19 years ago for this man! What on earth was I thinking?!
I'm sorry that my use of statistics offends you. Clearly what you know from your heart is far more reliable.
When one is faced with what one can see and government statistics, the temptation to believe that the evidence of one's eyes tends to be more reliable is very powerful.
Perhaps.
But usually the correct course of action is to get out more.
Err, that's what your original interlocutor was suggesting to you.
James Kirkup (Tgraph) on Sky wonders if Corbyn has a secret plan to starve REMAIN of Labour help so that they lose as Corbyn believes creates more problems for the Govt.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Well, Labour have been mostly anonymous and aloof during this campaign.
Dominic Lawson in Times today says the pillar box red colour scheme of Vote Leave was a deliberate ploy to win over Labour voters. It was the first thing that struck me when I saw their logo. Given 50% of Labour voters have no idea which side it's officially supporting - it certainly seems like an even cleverer move,
@tnewtondunn: Big Gove line in @peston interview: we won't have left EU by 2020 under #Brexit, ie he'd delay Article 50. Unsure voters would allow that.
Well who could have predicted that?
Oh yes, me.
If we do vote Leave it is very unlikely that just the UK will be leaving the EU by 2020. That won't necessarily make our departure any easier to negotiate or good humoured of course.
My only satisfaction with a Brexit will be to see those Eurosceptics flailing blindly around when they realise that leaving the EU isn't the road to Nirvana, in fact it isn't the road to anywhere. All along the EU had sod all to do with the plight of modern economies negotiating globalisation.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
Because its in another country and our media is far more interested in that which affects us directly/celebrity deaths.
It will affect all the footy fans going over there in the next week as well as all the summer holidaymakers there! But we can't be seen to be showing other EU member states in crisis at this sensitive time can we?
Cuts both ways - I was driving up through France about a week ago and had read the Mail's stories about 40% of petrol stations being out or low on fuel. I even stupidly bought a couple of Jerry cans and filled them up in Spain. At all the hotels on the way back all the Brits were moaning about the stupid Mail scare storys, nobody had encountered any problems anywhere. .
@tnewtondunn: Big Gove line in @peston interview: we won't have left EU by 2020 under #Brexit, ie he'd delay Article 50. Unsure voters would allow that.
I can't see how that's remotely a credible position, unless he was contemplating the possibility of the UK actually not leaving the European Union or leaving open the possibility of a second "confirmatory" referendum. Unless a date is set, there will be no urgency in negotiating the exit and it will drag on for years and years.
(Your posts are impossible to reply to because your messages are on top).
Though it would be interestin to watch 'Leave' cope with the mayhem after a Brext and to watch the humiliation of the Tories getting their worst ever result since it was founded and seeing Boris Gove IDS and Patel being chased out of the country by an impoverished mob with pitchforks having to seek refuge Alaska where no one's heard of them......
......the truth is that five days of schadenfreude wouldn't be worth it. You and I have our EU bolt hioles but what about the others?
I have an apartment in Cyprus and want what is in the best interests of everyone across the EU, not just the UK. How many times we have to say yes to free trade, and no to any of the political baggage that comes with the EU I don't know......but I do know is that its time to send a message to Brussels.
I don't care about what happens if we vote out. Gove will sort it. I just know he will. He's that type of guy.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Indeed. What an absolutely fantastic job he did at education. Remind me? Why did Dave have to move him?
Because he was so successful in his job that he'd annoyed too many vested interests. Better that than another empty head who tries to not rock the boat.
That's simply untrue. Let's be honest. He was moved because his popularity ratings were appalling and he upset parents.
I'm sorry that my use of statistics offends you. Clearly what you know from your heart is far more reliable.
When one is faced with what one can see and government statistics, the temptation to believe that the evidence of one's eyes tends to be more reliable is very powerful.
Perhaps.
But usually the correct course of action is to get out more.
Err, that's what your original interlocutor was suggesting to you.
The plural of anecdote is not data. Usually when people say things like "everyone I know is voting Leave", they are looking too narrowly.
Statistics, on the other hand, are compiled with the intention of being comprehensive. They are not necessarily accurate but we are blessed in this country with an impartial and very able statistics-gathering service.
But I appreciate that the new Leave line to take is that experts are to be disregarded, so perhaps I'm wasting my energy.
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
France is trying to enact labour market reforms and the unions are revolting,
@tnewtondunn: Big Gove line in @peston interview: we won't have left EU by 2020 under #Brexit, ie he'd delay Article 50. Unsure voters would allow that.
Well who could have predicted that?
Oh yes, me.
This isn't a day for humour but that made me laugh
Fascinating to see how this works out. Could change welfare forever
It is Gordon Brown's income support by another name. Gordon was there first.
No because it eliminates all means testing and goes to everyone. There are no perverse incentives not to work. If you go out and earn your income goes up in a predictable way.
Comments
Leadsom excellent on Sky now.
He may not be right, but it's not really a wild conspiracy theory...
And remind me which country has the lowest central bank interest rate in Europe - yes the remainers guessed it alright - Switzerland. You really couldn't make up the economic illiterate $hit that Remain are producing during this campaign.
If the UK votes for Brexit we're no more likely to see any of the rosy outcomes being peddled by the Leave campaign. Politics will be volatile and unpredictable and you couldn't rule out a swing towards an Old Labour style regime.
My mortgage costs more than a pint of milk.
Should I Leave my bank and see if they will give me a refund?
Leadsom excellent on Sky now.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-second-french-revolution-or-just-major-civil-unrest/
I have warned about a major rising cycle of civil unrest happening into 2020, which Mr Meeks seems to have begrudgingly and slowly realised is happening in this thread. Years of stagnant wage growth, a future which parents are wondering what will happen to their children and the 'people' have a wider sense that something is amiss, even if they're not able to put their finger on it. And when the reality in 2016 is so out of whack with what the Eurocracy were promising us at the dawn of the Euro in 1999 when Southern Europe by now was going to converge with Northern Europe in terms of economic performance - that's a prime facie example of just how much you should trust the economic forecasts of the wretched remain campaign and their apologists.
Or that Britons employed or subsidised by the EU can't find jobs in the private sector?
Either way, not a good look for Remain.
Its also lazy thinking, both in Britain and America, to assume that immigrants are always for more immigration.
Just because someone is a US Latino, that does not mean he or she wants to import half of Mexico.
Protection MoneyMembership Fees.Do we have to pay China £8.5 billion a year to trade with them? USA? Japan? India (oh, we've already discussed India, haven't we?)?
Wait til the footie starts!
@montie Tim Montgomerie ن Retweeted LEAVE.EU
Odd that so many Labour voters back @vote_leave but so few Labour MPs have any sympathy for #Brexit. Groupthink?
You intend as a government to keep on borrowing year after year as a government. If I as a private individual went to my bank manager and proposed to do that, what interest rate do you think they would charge me long term?
And if Cameron came back with the stock response of getting the budget back into balance, just gently remind him that he promised it by LAST YEAR so his response is just not credible.
Perhaps we should leave it there
And it shows.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/04/observer-france-labour-unrest
The Guardian, part of the same group as the Observer, reported yesterday that the poll figures were Leave 43%, Remain 40%.
However, Opinium themselves report the result (field dates 31 May to 3 June, sample size 2007) to be Remain 43%, Leave 41%.
It's true we pay 13 billion GROSS, and the EU gives us back 4.5 billion, but that's a shortfall 8.5 billion. Where do you think that goes?
Prescott on SP BBC1 complaining that the REMAIN campaign has had too much tory spokespeople. Are we now having a REMAIN vs REMAIN fight?
http://yournewswire.com/media-blackout-as-france-witnesses-biggest-revolution-in-200-years/
And when all those English and Welsh football fans come back home and tell their mates what is happening there then they will quite rightly ask why there is a mainstream blackout on the coverage.
I'm shocked.
If Leave win it is uncertain the Conservative party will recover. Cameron and Osborne have together led them out of the Blair wilderness into power and then into a majority. And they will both be destroyed. I am very sad about that. Unlike many leavers on here I continue to have great respect for both of them for what they have done for both the country and the party. The Conservative party is a more liberal, socially tolerant and open minded organisation than it was 10 years ago and they deserve the credit for that.
I also wonder if the bitterness that their destruction is going to cause will ever be capable of being repaired. A Leaver will take the leadership but who amongst the Remainers will be willing to serve? We may well have a situation similar to Labour where most of the experience and talent (I use the word in a strictly relevant sense of course) sits on the back benchers.
Best PM Rating 55+ age group:
Jeremy Corbyn - 9%
but he wasn't moved because teachers, there aren't enough of them and they're(mainly) too left wing to make any difference in all but the most marginal of seats. There's a lot of parents though.
Mr. L, that's possible. UKIP, unexpectedly, could have an even better strategic situation than last time, with both major parties significantly divided.
Gove is truly underrated. Education secretaries are rarely popular.
His moves towards reforming prisons are truly liberal. His straight talking would prove popular after the mealy mouth of Cameron and Osborne.
But usually the correct course of action is to get out more.
The truth is that the EU (as currently constituted) is not an economic asset to the UK, has been more-or-less stagnant for 8 years, that future economic growth will be global, and that that world is, truly, our oyster, and I believe that we will (all) be materially better off in the medium-long term having the tools and powers to regulate our own economy.
What's driving the vote to keep us in is the sheer inertia of our existing business and economic models, established post-Suez axioms that British influence is predicted on our membership, and a few softer factors around fear of change and its potential disruption to the existing international order.
I think Osborne could be up for the challenge. But I doubt Cameron would be....the speaking tour, lucrative board contracts and some down time and nice Caribbean holidays with Samantha presents a more appealing alternative than bloodily dispatching the Tory loons.
The fact that Alan Johnston (who was immediately moved to Health, incidentally) is for Remain and Gove is for Leave is the single most important reason I'm voting Leave.
BoJo has sacrificed his entire career to date (and integrity) to get the keys. He's not going to let a "more credible" candidate beat him
That there might be short term volatility if we leave the EU is, in my view, a given. That there might be a Labour government is also a given. However, I am looking beyond the next few years, and beyond the witless concentration of GDP, a term that few people understand. My question is is it more likely, in the medium to long term, that the UK will be a better place to live if it remains in or leaves the EU?
My view, and others disagree, is that the UK will be a better place if it returns to being a self-governing nation state. So the project fear which is all based around hypothetical short-term economic effects just wash over me. I shall vote accordingly.
That is the Brexiteer definition of "straight talking"
Absolutely, but he doesn't have the charisma needed for a modern Prime Minister and sensibly, he knows it. He'd rather be the power behind the throne.
That's why he and BoJo look, at least from the outside, like a good team. Gove does BoJo's detailed thinking for him, and BoJo is happy for that to happen.
AKA The Napoleon strategy of not interrupting opponents when they are making mistakes.
Even more worryingly for IN, when forced to choose, 60 percent of those polled opt for Britain regaining control of its immigration policy even if it means problems for trade, the economy and jobs. Now, this goes against the conventional assumption that voters ultimately vote on the economy."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/could-the-vote-leave-strategy-work/
Oh yes, me.
That's a good point.
Still, Gove is the only member of parliament who I would trust to write No, No, No! all over cabinet papers in red ink, like the blessed lady Margaret herself (PBUH).
(Your posts are impossible to reply to because your messages are on top).
Though it would be interesting to watch 'Leave' cope with the mayhem after a Brexit and to watch the humiliation of the Tories getting their worst ever result since it was founded and seeing Boris Gove IDS and Patel being chased out of the country by an impoverished mob with pitchforks having to seek refuge Alaska where no one's heard of them......
......the truth is that five days of schadenfreude wouldn't be worth it. You and I have our EU bolt holes but what about the others?
The proposal calls for adults to be paid an unconditional monthly income, whether they work or not.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36454060
@DouglasCarswell
Do you think John Major properly thought through the risks of Remaining in the ERM?
A Brexit vote will be the end of Corbyn. His death might be a little slower and more painful than Cameron's, but it'll come before the end of the year.
It will be interesting to see who wins.
Statistics, on the other hand, are compiled with the intention of being comprehensive. They are not necessarily accurate but we are blessed in this country with an impartial and very able statistics-gathering service.
But I appreciate that the new Leave line to take is that experts are to be disregarded, so perhaps I'm wasting my energy.