I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
Beware the boy who cried wolf.
With trust in Cameron at 18%, and gales of laughter meeting some of his claims - the electorate simply don't believe him. That's entirely self-inflicted.
I'm surprised more Remainers aren't really pissed off with him/the campaign hyperbole. I've barely seen a post critical of their side.
As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.
Not a chance. Cameron and the Remain campaign having denigrated and insulted almost half of his party, there is not a cat in hell's chance they are simply going to let him walk away unscathed.
It takes two to tango and I'd say IDS set the tone for the debate with his nicely choreographed little tantrum and resignation.
As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.
Not a chance. Cameron and the Remain campaign having denigrated and insulted almost half of his party, there is not a cat in hell's chance they are simply going to let him walk away unscathed.
It takes two to tango and I'd say IDS set the tone for the debate with his nicely choreographed little tantrum and resignation.
If IDS became tory leader would you vote for them?
If Airbus close the Bristol factory, can Nige explain to the workers how they can cash their Sovereignty cheques?
Airbus is likely to move more manufacturing from the UK come what may. Leaving the EU would make some difference, but those jobs are only marginally safer if we remain.
Erm...the really complicated bits of a passenger jet are the engines, the wings and the cockpit/avionics/software. The engines and wings are made in Derby and Bristol respectively. (Engines by Rolls Royce as sub-contractor). Where would airbus suddenly move wing production to? A Leave decision would make zero difference to Airbus production from a business / technical point of view. The EU would be insane to add tariff cost to Airbus when a completed wing is flown to Toulouse from Bristol. It's a bullshit argument of the variety that Nick Clegg used to peddle. UK Airbus jobs are secure in or out of the EU.
Rolls Royce have plants in Berlin and Slovakia. Derby may well wither on the vine for investment.
It never has been sensible to build wings in one country then ship them elsewhere to assemble, better to build near the final production line.
The wings are either flown from Broughton (North Wales) or shipped via Mostyn Docks (North Wales) to Toulouse. There can be no certainty that Airbus will not shift manufacture of the wings to France, Germany or Spain if we exit the EU
Airbus UK. This is what I posted last night:
I want to jump in quickly to make a comment about Airbus UK. I think that people over-overestimating Airbus' commitment to Airbus UK. There are two reasons behind this. First, the emotional commitment to "Europe" within EADS/Airbus in its widest sense. Second, and this is important, there is no major UK shareholder in Airbus. UK is legacy from the BAE Systems position and the French, German and Spanish governments would be very keen to draw the UK operations to their country.
That's not to say that Airbus would immediately shift operations out if the UK. I don't think they would. But I do think that wings and structures for the A320 replacement would be designed and fabricated outside the UK. Ultimately, Hawarden and Filton would wither on the vine.
Leavers may be sanguine about that risk, and it's a view. I do think that my scenario is realistic though.
Isn't the issue that the EU hasn't forced the German and French states to sell their golden stakes in EADS? I agree that if we left that the likelihood of the A320neo wings or being made in Wales are less than they are at the moment, but it would be a political decision made by politicians rather than a business decision based on ROI.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
There are less than three weeks until Britain votes on whether it should remain in the European Union and one side of the debate is heading into the June 23 referendum with much more confidence than the other.
British research company Populus has released data which shows that the overwhelming majority of people who intend to vote Remain expect to be on the winning side (85%).
Brexiteers are nowhere near as optimistic. In fact, the majority of respondents who plan to vote for a Brexit don't believe that it's going to happen.
As the chart below illustrates, the majority of Leave-ers (48%) expect to be on the losing side when the result is announced in the early hours of Friday 24 June.
Mr. Eagles, I'd hoped the tongue-in-cheek element of that was clear.
And it could be worse. I could be claiming we can control migration within the EU.
It's not Dave's fault George Osborne is so awesome at his job and the economy is booming.
Plus, he did get, an "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
*Whispers*
Psst, Darth Eagles, that deal has yet to be verified by the European parliament and there is no guarantee that they will do so. Also I think you'll find that the decision to operate the "brake" will be taken by the EU in Brussels not by the British government, who can only ask for it to be used. Control will remain with the EU not the British government. Please also see the definition of the word "Exceptional" for how it might be used in this case.
Also if the economy is booming why do we still have a massive annual deficit and dreadful trade figures? What happened to the march of the makers - manufacturing doesn't seem to be doing so well. For all the other issues that Osborne has failed on please see numerous posts by the likes of Mr. AlanBrooke going back over the last few years.
Whats our unemployment rate compared to France?
Employment rate I don't know without looking it up, but their unemployment rate is I think about twice ours. That has nothing to do with the supposed brilliance of George Osborne, of course, but more to do with Labour Market reforms introduced long before George Osborne ever came to office. Similar reforms were introduced in Germany by Schroeder and have had similar results. The French market is wholly unreformed and so unemployment is higher.
None of that has anything to do with the very real problems in the UK economy which Osborne has failed to sort out.
You really think if our unemployment rate was 15% that Osborne wouldn't be getting the blame. Your comment is the biggest problem any Government has. When things are good it is nothing to do with them, when things are bad it is all their fault.
Mr. Star, Someone quite a long time ago sorted out a problem and we are now benefiting from that, same as happened in Germany. What I would like is for our current politicians to address the problems that exist today. Osborne hasn't been very good at that. So, no, I am not going to give him credit for something he didn't do but I am going to ask about his performance in the job he is paid to do.
Personally I would like to see the managed decline of the city anyway. If it was hit in the event of Brexit it would cause us some short term difficulties but I suspect it would be a good thing in the long run. Quite why people venerate it when it's rise over the last say 130 years has gone hand in hand with the arguable overall decline of UK plc is a mystery to me.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
We would keep everything as it is, no additional powers would be granted to the EBA/ECB. If anything it would be better overall as the hedge funds would find it easier to cast their nets towards Asia.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
Beware the boy who cried wolf.
With trust in Cameron at 18%, and gales of laughter meeting some of his claims - the electorate simply don't believe him. That's entirely self-inflicted.
I'm surprised more Remainers aren't really pissed off with him/the campaign hyperbole. I've barely seen a post critical of their side.
Just because the electorate do not believe him does not mean that he is not right. But it is the case that Cameron has played this very badly indeed - and all to save himself some bother from Tory right wingers a few years ago. Now, we are left hoping that those Tory right wingers are correct.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
I don't think you need to worry about Boris doing any negotiating. That would involve getting into detail and a bit of hard work. The bigger worry is what he signs off on because he has not bothered to understand it.
As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.
No, the moderate wing of Toryism is finished. The Tory hard-right sense blood. I can actually see IDS making a Nixon-like comeback as leader after all this. The fact that Leavers on here are gushing over remarks by Jeremy Corbyn shows how smitten they are with ideologues and how contemptuous they are of pragmatism and compromise. It's a frightening prospect.
A couple of hefty election defeats will bring them back to their senses. IDS has been an intellectual lightweight and voter repellent for his entire career. Pretty sure even the craziest of Leavers won't be pressing his claims too hard.
Unfortunately, when IDS takes over this time the hard-right will be utterly entrenched. Anyone voicing the need for moderation will be receive the retort: 'We tried that before and we ended up with those europhile traitors Cameron and Osborne. Never again!' When Leave wins IDS will be seen to be on the side of angels while Cameron will be the devil. Who can stop IDS in that climate?
It's not to do with government ownership. There is a cost point to fabricating wings so far from the production lines and governments would provide incentives (regional aid, development support and the like) to shift design and production. For what it's worth the Commission tries very hard to restrict these and have businesses make decisions based on economic merits alone.
320neo wings will not move as that would wreck current production, although if there's a ramping of production I've little doubt that the production lines would be ex-UK.
HMG still retains golden shares in BAE and RR although they are of dubious (ie near nil) legal value.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
We would keep everything as it is, no additional powers would be granted to the EBA/ECB. If anything it would be better overall as the hedge funds would find it easier to cast their nets towards Asia.
As I say, we would cede control (sovereignty) over the City to the EU.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
I think Gove would probably get the job, though I hope Andrea Leadsom is given a role.
As a Tory voter and supporter of the PM I'm concerned about the aftermath of a Leave vote in electoral terms. Anyone who can keep Labour out of office for 10 years is doing fine as far as I can see. The parallels with the Major years are alarming from a Conservative point of view.
Whether the right of the party like it or not the Cameron brand of the Tory party has appealed to voters in lots of seats they lost last time IDS, Cash et al did their thing. I would be alarmed if I was an incumbent MP in, for example, Richmond, Twickenham, Hazel Grove, Bath etc etc that the spectre of tactical voting could once more rear its ugly head.
I do hope that if Remain wins, however close the vote is, that Tory Leavers will either work with the Government to try and achieve some of what they want from within the EU or leave and join UKIP.
No, the moderate wing of Toryism is finished. The Tory hard-right sense blood. I can actually see IDS making a Nixon-like comeback as leader after all this. The fact that Leavers on here are gushing over remarks by Jeremy Corbyn shows how smitten they are with ideologues and how contemptuous they are of pragmatism and compromise. It's a frightening prospect.
A couple of hefty election defeats will bring them back to their senses. IDS has been an intellectual lightweight and voter repellent for his entire career. Pretty sure even the craziest of Leavers won't be pressing his claims too hard.
Unfortunately, when IDS takes over this time the hard-right will be utterly entrenched. Anyone voicing the need for moderation will be receive the retort: 'We tried that before and we ended up with those europhile traitors Cameron and Osborne. Never again!' When Leave wins IDS will be seen to be on the side of angels while Cameron will be the devil. Who can stop IDS in that climate?
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
I don't think you need to worry about Boris doing any negotiating. That would involve getting into detail and a bit of hard work. The bigger worry is what he signs off on because he has not bothered to understand it.
I actually think Theresa May might be the best choice.
She has shown time and time again she drives a hard bargain, isn't afraid to stand up against vested interests, and she works hard.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
I don't think you need to worry about Boris doing any negotiating. That would involve getting into detail and a bit of hard work. The bigger worry is what he signs off on because he has not bothered to understand it.
Dave will make Boris head of his renegotiation task force. Why wouldn't he?
Personally I would like to see the managed decline of the city anyway. If it was hit in the event of Brexit it would cause us some short term difficulties but I suspect it would be a good thing in the long run. Quite why people venerate it when it's rise over the last say 130 years has gone hand in hand with the arguable overall decline of UK plc is a mystery to me.
Maybe it has something to do with the tax revenues to the Chancellor and the influx of money into the UK economy?
47% of 18-24 will definitely vote according to BMG poll in Guardian. 80% for 65+
Only 43% of 18 to 24s voted at the general election according to Mori so that would be a 4% increase in young voter turnout for EU ref on those figures
Personally I would like to see the managed decline of the city anyway. If it was hit in the event of Brexit it would cause us some short term difficulties but I suspect it would be a good thing in the long run. Quite why people venerate it when it's rise over the last say 130 years has gone hand in hand with the arguable overall decline of UK plc is a mystery to me.
0_o
Which other very lucrative industries would you like us to lose??
''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.
Not so sure it's arrogance. More a fact. I've no illusions of grandeur with this country but what I do resent is being part of something that started off as a common market and rapidly morphed into something quite different. The whole project has been dishonest.
It never started as a common market.
Going right back to the beginning, the 1951 Treaty of Paris, which established the ECSC, contained within its preamble:
Resolved to substitute for age-old rivalries the merging of their essential interests; to create, by establishing an economic community, the basis for a broader and deeper community among peoples long divided by bloody conflict; and to lay the foundations for institutions which will give direction to a destiny henceforward shared
That, of course was made much more explicit later in the 1950s, with the Treaty of Rome and "ever closer union".
It is a myth that the EU and its predecessors were ever 'just about trade'.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
We would keep everything as it is, no additional powers would be granted to the EBA/ECB. If anything it would be better overall as the hedge funds would find it easier to cast their nets towards Asia.
As I say, we would cede control (sovereignty) over the City to the EU.
47% of 18-24 will definitely vote according to BMG poll in Guardian. 80% for 65+
Only 43% of 18 to 24s voted at the general election according to Mori so that would be a 4% increase in young voter turnout for EU ref on those figures
Some of those 47% will find that feeding their cat, washing their hair and taking their dog for a walk is suddenly very important on the voting day.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
I don't want him anywhere near power at all. That though is in the hands of the Conservative MPs and then members. I doubt he would get on the ballot paper because I don't think he has the popularity within the Parliamentary Party. God help us if he does though because I have a sneaking suspicion that the majority of the membership might go for him.
However, as Cameron is now a busted flush Boris might get a run at it regardless of the result of the referendum.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
Given no Tory members on here, nor anywhere else I read would vote for him, I think we're safe.
There are less than three weeks until Britain votes on whether it should remain in the European Union and one side of the debate is heading into the June 23 referendum with much more confidence than the other.
British research company Populus has released data which shows that the overwhelming majority of people who intend to vote Remain expect to be on the winning side (85%).
Brexiteers are nowhere near as optimistic. In fact, the majority of respondents who plan to vote for a Brexit don't believe that it's going to happen.
As the chart below illustrates, the majority of Leave-ers (48%) expect to be on the losing side when the result is announced in the early hours of Friday 24 June.
"I will say this, Hillary Clinton has got to go to jail," Trump told supporters here as he slammed Clinton's foreign policy speech earlier in the day in which Clinton called Trump dangerous and "temperamentally unfit" to be president.
"Folks, honestly, she's guilty as hell," Trump said of the Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump has previously accused Clinton of breaking federal law, but his comments on Thursday are his most direct call yet for Clinton to face jail time over her use of private email to conduct official State Department affairs.
I don't know. Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks. .
Who, other than SeanT?
He is the PB Leavers' spiritual leader, so I imagine the sentiment is shared.
So you withdraw the remark "Some Leavers on here have said that Tory Remainers should be hunted 'like rats' by mobs with pitchforks" because you were just imagining it?
I would have thought pitchforks would be a very poor choice of weapon for rat hunting. Air rifles are probably better.
''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.
Not so sure it's arrogance. More a fact. I've no illusions of grandeur with this country but what I do resent is being part of something that started off as a common market and rapidly morphed into something quite different. The whole project has been dishonest.
If it has been so dishonest it's strange none of the other 27 are in the departure lounge.
Some of the others may well not be too far behind. The big issue for the EU if we completely leave is how they are going to fill the hole in the EU budget. Either the net contributor countries will have to pay more, or the net recipient countries will receive less or both. It's not hard to see that being a massive bunfight.
47% of 18-24 will definitely vote according to BMG poll in Guardian. 80% for 65+
Only 43% of 18 to 24s voted at the general election according to Mori so that would be a 4% increase in young voter turnout for EU ref on those figures
Some of those 43% will find that feeding their cat, washing their hair and taking their dog for a walk is suddenly very important on the voting day.
78% of over 65s voted in the general election so they will also be 2% up but with youth turnout 4% up that suggests the old lead over the young in turnout at EU ref will be fractionally down from the general election. The poll still of course suggests over half of young voters will not vote
It's not to do with government ownership. There is a cost point to fabricating wings so far from the production lines and governments would provide incentives (regional aid, development support and the like) to shift design and production. For what it's worth the Commission tries very hard to restrict these and have businesses make decisions based on economic merits alone.
320neo wings will not move as that would wreck current production, although if there's a ramping of production I've little doubt that the production lines would be ex-UK.
HMG still retains golden shares in BAE and RR although they are of dubious (ie near nil) legal value.
And yet I know that another partially French state owned company (STMicro) is run like shit because of political interference. The idea of golden stakes is something that the EC should have stamped out long ago and they should have forced the French and Germans to sell up their interest in EADS and other companies in which they hold strategic ownership.
If wing production moves out of Wales it will be because of political blowback from Brexit.
''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.
Not so sure it's arrogance. More a fact. I've no illusions of grandeur with this country but what I do resent is being part of something that started off as a common market and rapidly morphed into something quite different. The whole project has been dishonest.
It never started as a common market.
Going right back to the beginning, the 1951 Treaty of Paris, which established the ECSC, contained within its preamble:
Resolved to substitute for age-old rivalries the merging of their essential interests; to create, by establishing an economic community, the basis for a broader and deeper community among peoples long divided by bloody conflict; and to lay the foundations for institutions which will give direction to a destiny henceforward shared
That, of course was made much more explicit later in the 1950s, with the Treaty of Rome and "ever closer union".
It is a myth that the EU and its predecessors were ever 'just about trade'.
Most British people thought that it was mostly about trade. Most politicians were either ignorant of the facts or decided not to educate the people.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
The Baltics would be worth watching too. Vilnius would be likely to do well out of Brexit.
So a fair few EU centres would do well if the City were no longer inside the EU. Can someone tell me again why they would then agree terms that allowed the City to retain the benefits it currently enjoys as a result of EU membership without us giving something very major back?
Mr. Observer, the problem with all this, "The City will collapse" talk is that we have heard it before. We were told, not least by many of the same people, that unless we joined the Euro the City would decamp to Frankfurt, remember that?
Sorry, old boy, but these scare stories pass me by.
One of the morals of the story of the boy who cried wolf is that the wolf did eventually appear.
As it happens, i don't think that Brexit would be disastrous for the City; it would get by fine. Other potential threats to it - excessive tax or stifling regulation - would be more likely to see it decamp elsewhere (though not, in all likelihood, within the EU).
That said, one enormous advantage that the City has, rather like the US Dollar as reserve currency, is that there simply aren't any alternatives that don't have at least one major drawback.
Who said that the City would collapse? It seems that the consensus on here is that in the Brexit negotiations the UK will cede regulatory control of the City (ie UK sovereignty) to the EU in order to keep things pretty much as they are. I wonder how many other areas we will end up doing this in.
I would be extremely surprised if that happened (and I don't think there's anything like a consensus here that it would). Being subject to EU regulation while having no input would be the worst of all worlds.
I've not had it officially confirmed, but I believe we're going to get weekly ICM phone polls for the rest of the campaign, next week's one might be the most important poll of the campaign.
If Leave still retain a lead, or increase their lead, then we're going to see some real shift over on Betfair, Remain are already down to 71%
If the next poll is a reversion to the status quo ante bellum, then expectations will move back to where it was before the ICM polls came out
Is this voodoo? Sounds like a proper poll, not a self-selected sample or anything. Obviously a big MoE, and only useful if you can work out where you expect the North-East to be compared to everywhere else...
Is this voodoo? Sounds like a proper poll, not a self-selected sample or anything. Obviously a big MoE, and only useful if you can work out where you expect the North-East to be compared to everywhere else...
"The results of the poll were based on online responses from 505 people in the North East weighted for age and gender to be representative of the population nationally. It was carried out by Hexham-based Panelbase." - The Journal.
It's not just the opinion poll though; Leave have done what we Remainers have been dreading: target the immigrant. There is something atavistic and innately powerful about our fear of the foreign and the unfamiliar. Leave have tapped into this superbly. It's been a master stroke.
I've not had it officially confirmed, but I believe we're going to get weekly ICM phone polls for the rest of the campaign, next week's one might be the most important poll of the campaign.
If Leave still retain a lead, or increase their lead, then we're going to see some real shift over on Betfair, Remain are already down to 71%
If the next poll is a reversion to the status quo ante bellum, then expectations will move back to where it was before the ICM polls came out
Agreed. Do you know when next week's ICM poll will be published?
Is this voodoo? Sounds like a proper poll, not a self-selected sample or anything. Obviously a big MoE, and only useful if you can work out where you expect the North-East to be compared to everywhere else...
UKIP did well last year in the election in the NE. Allowing for that and the demographics probably tctc nationally and in line with other pollsters.
If that's true, or anything close to true, then the average size of a bet on Remain is far larger than the average bet on Leave. As could happen, for example, if there have been a small number of very large bets on Remain. As there might have been, for example, if the Remain campaign keeps track of betting prices on its war desk and maintains a capability for influencing said prices.
Personally I would like to see the managed decline of the city anyway. If it was hit in the event of Brexit it would cause us some short term difficulties but I suspect it would be a good thing in the long run. Quite why people venerate it when it's rise over the last say 130 years has gone hand in hand with the arguable overall decline of UK plc is a mystery to me.
Mr. Booth, the rise of the City and the "gentleman capitalists" goes back a lot further than 130 years. I'd argue that its malign effects can be seen as long ago as the 18th century with the diversion of capital from productive sectors to the get rich quick schemes of the sugar trade and the Empire. However, I would agree that it's real malignancy only became apparent in the late 19th century, when, because of our chronic underinvestment, both Germany and the USA began to overhaul the UK as manufacturers.
The City though, despite its long term deleterious effect on the British economy, has always had the short term effect of producing lots of money for HMG to tax and that has always appealed more to politicians, who never seem to be able to think beyond the next election. Gordon Brown being a classic example.
In an ideal world the City should become a progressively less important part of our economy. Something that Osborne was talking about not so long ago, "march of the makers", "rebalancing the economy" and all that stuff. Unfortunately, like his Boss, he seems to be good at the words, the actions not so much.
Some losers might have to rethink how their research methods failed to predict the outcome.
Having looked at the odds of a Remain win, and the predictions from academics, journalists & pollsters that Leave has a 33% chance of success, why is there so much excitement that published polls neck and neck or within a 2-3 percentage points of each other?
It's not just the opinion poll though; Leave have done what we Remainers have been dreading: target the immigrant. There is something atavistic and innately powerful about our fear of the foreign and the unfamiliar. Leave have tapped into this superbly. It's been a master stroke.
We already knew they were going to do that though, didn't we? I mean, that's their entire thing.
Lord Michael Dobbs @dobbs_michael Asked myself, If EU is the Answer, What's The Question? Then Voted Leave by post this morning. With my heart and my head. Never felt better.
I expect the Northeast will vote Leave, the Northwest Remain
The poll was weighted for National Demographics - it states - otherwise I would be trumpeting on how much the WWC Labour voter is going to vote Leave.
UKIP won 29% at the European elections in the Northeast in 2014, 27% across the UK so it is slightly more anti EU than the UK as a whole though probably average for England alone
I've not had it officially confirmed, but I believe we're going to get weekly ICM phone polls for the rest of the campaign, next week's one might be the most important poll of the campaign.
If Leave still retain a lead, or increase their lead, then we're going to see some real shift over on Betfair, Remain are already down to 71%
If the next poll is a reversion to the status quo ante bellum, then expectations will move back to where it was before the ICM polls came out
Agreed. Do you know when next week's ICM poll will be published?
Well I know the ICM online poll will come out Mon/Tue of next week, I'm hoping we'll get the phone poll at the same time.
The only poll I do know for sure we're getting this weekend is the Opinium online poll for the Observer
Or they move clearing to Dublin where they already have a presence along with most of the other US banks. I think the risk is to the EU rather than to us, if they dont give is the financial services passport and the city does move to synthetic clearing then the EU will have a huge unregulated market on their doorstep, one which they have zero oversight over.
I wonder whether Dublin might grow into more of a rival to the City than Frankfurt, Paris or Milan?
Our firm's Brexit analysis identified Dublin as a threat to the financial services sector, especially in light of Brexit plus those rates of corporation tax are very useful for Ireland. Their rate for R&D is something special.
It's an option where we might open an office in the event of Brexit.
This talk of Dublin is interesting. if you shot a commercial in Dublin you were obliged to use a full Irish crew. An Irish crew was fine but Irish Cameramen just weren't good enough. I do my own camerawork so I had to have an Irish cameraman on £1000 a day doing nothing. Other directors probably had to employ two
Thanks to the EU this practice was outlawed in 2000. But it's exactly the sort of cost free restriction that can be brought back as soon as we leave. In itself it's small but as restrictions on the service sector are the easiest to apply I'm sure they'll be the first to be implemented and the service sector is huge in overseas earnings
Boris doesn't want to become PM after a Leave win - far too difficult, too much like real work, too many competing pressures and expectations, way too risky....
Surely Boris's plan is to become PM after a narrow Remain win - Cameron has to go and he just slides into position (assuming the Tories will still have him) as the leading Outer.
So Boris doesn't actually want Leave to win - and indeed when he joined Leave his initial strategy was to leverage a leave vote to actually stay in the EU on different terms, until the fanatics that he'd just joined bullied him into line.
The question therefore is what Boris will do over the next three weeks to sabotage his own side?
Is this voodoo? Sounds like a proper poll, not a self-selected sample or anything. Obviously a big MoE, and only useful if you can work out where you expect the North-East to be compared to everywhere else...
"The results of the poll were based on online responses from 505 people in the North East weighted for age and gender to be representative of the population nationally. It was carried out by Hexham-based Panelbase." - The Journal.
Is it weighted by party alignment and class as well?
'Cameron's EU negotiations were a theatrical sideshow aiming to appease Tory party when it should've been about best deal for British people'
Now we have the Tory eurosceptic right gushing over the tweets of Jesmondo. Words fail me as to how low the Labour Party has sunk under his 'leadership'.
It reads to me like the smartest thing Corbyn has ever said.
What is there in his tweet that is not entirely correct?
I'm not saying it is untrue. I merely fail to see the science in mentioning it when he is supposed to be on the same side as Cameron. Ditto McDonnell having a crack at Sadiq for sharing a platform with the PM. With friends like these...
weighted for age and gender to be representative of the population nationally
Admittedly this bit is weird but maybe they didn't know the right weightings for the North-East.
My guess is that it's a local outfit (based in Hexham) without the resources to do a national poll but who rather fancy some national coverage. To be valid it depends on whether people in the NE who are in one or another demographic group are typical of the group nationally.
It's not just the opinion poll though; Leave have done what we Remainers have been dreading: target the immigrant. There is something atavistic and innately powerful about our fear of the foreign and the unfamiliar. Leave have tapped into this superbly. It's been a master stroke.
Pretty obvious that VL was carefully avoiding anything to do with immigration at the start of the campaign. Now Purdah is in Cameron has just got to sit squirming and enjoy it.
My only concern is: have they got 3 weeks supply of publicity in them?
Dublin is a surprisingly dismal city. I spent four days there for a wedding, expecting a Celtic cultural wonderland. I got a very expensive, less interesting, version of Manchester. Edinburgh is streets ahead of it, despite being very slightly smaller.
There are less than three weeks until Britain votes on whether it should remain in the European Union and one side of the debate is heading into the June 23 referendum with much more confidence than the other.
British research company Populus has released data which shows that the overwhelming majority of people who intend to vote Remain expect to be on the winning side (85%).
Brexiteers are nowhere near as optimistic. In fact, the majority of respondents who plan to vote for a Brexit don't believe that it's going to happen.
As the chart below illustrates, the majority of Leave-ers (48%) expect to be on the losing side when the result is announced in the early hours of Friday 24 June.
Didn't tory voters think they were going to lose the election? I can't remember.
Excuse my french, but "wisdom of crowd" polls are a big pile of poo. Yes, I know about the theory, but it doesn't work with political elections. The final ICM wisdom-of-crowds poll on Thurs 7 May 2015 (!) was Lab 35, Con 34, Ukip 11, Lib 9, SNP 5, Green 4, others 2
h ttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll
odysseanproject @odysseanproject Hearing No10 considering a promise of a special referendum just on Turkey to try to escape disastrous 'pave the road'. Won't work
This thread is just another confirmation of my belief that the Tory party is well and truly fecked after June 24th. It'd be funny, if it didn't lead to the feeling that Corbyn's Labour might actually take advantage of the ensuing chaos.
weighted for age and gender to be representative of the population nationally
Admittedly this bit is weird but maybe they didn't know the right weightings for the North-East.
My guess is that it's a local outfit (based in Hexham) without the resources to do a national poll but who rather fancy some national coverage. To be valid it depends on whether people in the NE who are in one or another demographic group are typical of the group nationally.
Hard to say, really.
Panelbase do do National polling. They've generally tended to focus on Scottish polling, but at the last general election they did do GB wide polling.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
Given no Tory members on here, nor anywhere else I read would vote for him, I think we're safe.
Except for every single opinion poll on the subject.
I've got a discussion of this and other post-Brexit thoughts (which I've tried to make reasonably objective) kindly scheduled by TSE in one of tomorrow's threads.
This thread is just another confirmation of my belief that the Tory party is well and truly fecked after June 24th. It'd be funny, if it didn't lead to the feeling that Corbyn's Labour might actually take advantage of the ensuing chaos.
Yes - if its Remain. If it's Leave then the Tories will be just fine. They'll have a new PM that the MPs and members agree with (probably Gove) and a mission to accomplish on behalf of the people who voted for it.
Sorry its a bit of mess, but haven't time to convert the Excel properly. You get the idea.
Lots of caveats of course, although it could be even worse for Remain as the age demographic for 18-24 actually includes 15-17 year olds as thats the way the demographics are presented.
No doubt someone will point out the huge flaw I've failed to spot, but I think it reinforces the view that UK could be leaving EU because of the votes of older people whilst the young sit on their hands and fiddle with snapchat.
@Casino_Royale Do you think it would reasonable and generous to impose a points system for migration and then be outraged when countries affected suggest that they might do the same in return?
Candidly, I believe that Leavers are being utterly delusional about how the renegotiation would be carried out. They seem to believe that they can get everything they want pain-free without making any concessions on points of concern on the other side and that it will all be tickety boo in a week or two once it's blown over because that would be "better". To me that sounds barking mad.
They have a delusional idea of the esteem the UK is held in by the rest of Europe. It is respected as are many of the countries in the EU but not more than.
I'm starting to get the very uneasy feeling that this referendum is being decided by the old the very old and the Colonel Blimps and few of them will be around to face the lasting consequences.
I suppose most Leavers don't expect the calamities of Brexit to penetrate their nursing homes. I'm all right Jack seems to be the attitude. However, a lot of carers in these places are from Spain or Portugal. They'd better hope such people get past the point-system firewall. Otherwise the fees are going to sky rocket.
It is extraordinary that we're allowing our freedoms to trade to be summarily taken from us by people who are completely unaffected. It's like giving the public a vote on an oil tanker driver's strike at BP.
Just been out leafleting with a friend (for the first time ever in my life) in sunny Liverpool. We must have covered over 500 or 600 houses at least. #VoteLeave #Yes2Independence
This thread is just another confirmation of my belief that the Tory party is well and truly fecked after June 24th. It'd be funny, if it didn't lead to the feeling that Corbyn's Labour might actually take advantage of the ensuing chaos.
Yes - if its Remain. If it's Leave then the Tories will be just fine. They'll have a new PM that the MPs and members agree with (probably Gove) and a mission to accomplish on behalf of the people who voted for it.
I agree Patrick. It is the REMAIN vote that almost guarantees a disaster for the party. Mainly because of the role Cameron played in it. No gentle Harold Wilson exit for Cameron, alas.
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
Given no Tory members on here, nor anywhere else I read would vote for him, I think we're safe.
Except for every single opinion poll on the subject.
I've got a discussion of this and other post-Brexit thoughts (which I've tried to make reasonably objective) kindly scheduled by TSE in one of tomorrow's threads.
And irrelevant unless the Tories offer £3 memberships. And forget having a qualifying period of membership too.
As I predicted: odysseanproject @odysseanproject Hearing No10 considering a promise of a special referendum just on Turkey to try to escape disastrous 'pave the road'. Won't work
Is this the start of the "EU Vow" which I wondered about? There is also:- 1. The emergency brake. 2. A cut in the EU contributions.
Just been out leafleting with a friend (for the first time ever in my life) in sunny Liverpool. We must have covered over 500 or 600 houses at least. #VoteLeave #Yes2Independence
Sorry its a bit of mess, but haven't time to convert the Excel properly. You get the idea.
Lots of caveats of course, although it could be even worse for Remain as the age demographic for 18-24 actually includes 15-17 year olds as thats the way the demographics are presented.
No doubt someone will point out the huge flaw I've failed to spot, but I think it reinforces the view that UK could be leaving EU because of the votes of older people whilst the young sit on their hands and fiddle with snapchat.
You need to factor in the following
1) Northern Ireland 2) Gibralatar 3) Ex pats
None of whom are polled by most EURef polls.
My own back of a fag packet calculation has this worth about 1.2% to 1.5% to Remain
Cards on the table: my biggest worry about Brexit is Boris becomes PM and gets a really shit deal.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
Given no Tory members on here, nor anywhere else I read would vote for him, I think we're safe.
Except for every single opinion poll on the subject.
I've got a discussion of this and other post-Brexit thoughts (which I've tried to make reasonably objective) kindly scheduled by TSE in one of tomorrow's threads.
NP welcome your thread on next Con Leader. As to Boris he is not ahead in the ConHome member polls and by all accounts he has no large support amongst the MP.
As I predicted: odysseanproject @odysseanproject Hearing No10 considering a promise of a special referendum just on Turkey to try to escape disastrous 'pave the road'. Won't work
Is this the start of the "EU Vow" which I wondered about? There is also:- 1. The emergency brake. 2. A cut in the EU contributions.
They will feel they will have to do something to regain the headlines and the initiative.
Most British people thought that it was mostly about trade. Most politicians were either ignorant of the facts or decided not to educate the people.
This is getting a bit like the people who claim that the grandparents who fought in WW2 would have thought this or that. Is there any concrete evidence of what most people thought in 1975? That isn't how remember it (I was 25 at the time).
Personally I was opposed to membership, for early-day Corbyn reasons, but I remember my dad was very much in favour of a politically united Europe and the European Movement, which he belonged to, was getting plenty of coverage for that view. It's quite unfashionable now, but the older generation in those days felt the equation European union=no war was an absolutely deciding factor.
@Casino_Royale Do you think it would reasonable and generous to impose a points system for migration and then be outraged when countries affected suggest that they might do the same in return?
Candidly, I believe that Leavers are being utterly delusional about how the renegotiation would be carried out. They seem to believe that they can get everything they want pain-free without making any concessions on points of concern on the other side and that it will all be tickety boo in a week or two once it's blown over because that would be "better". To me that sounds barking mad.
They have a delusional idea of the esteem the UK is held in by the rest of Europe. It is respected as are many of the countries in the EU but not more than.
I'm starting to get the very uneasy feeling that this referendum is being decided by the old the very old and the Colonel Blimps and few of them will be around to face the lasting consequences.
I suppose most Leavers don't expect the calamities of Brexit to penetrate their nursing homes. I'm all right Jack seems to be the attitude. However, a lot of carers in these places are from Spain or Portugal. They'd better hope such people get past the point-system firewall. Otherwise the fees are going to sky rocket.
It is extraordinary that we're allowing our freedoms to trade to be summarily taken from us by people who are completely unaffected. It's like giving the public a vote on an oil tanker driver's strike at BP.
Its called democracy, Roger. Just like when people who don't pay tax vote for a party which promises higher taxes. Apparently, there is no better system.
Just been out leafleting with a friend (for the first time ever in my life) in sunny Liverpool. We must have covered over 500 or 600 houses at least. #VoteLeave #Yes2Independence
Good for you. Any change in reaction?
I'm going out again myself tomorrow morning.
We just posted through letterboxes. I'm in a very working class area. Solid Labour.
Only reaction was from a guy going in his door as we were posting. He asked what they were for, I said the referendum, he asked In or Out. I said Out. He wanted the leaflets.
@Casino_Royale Do you think it would reasonable and generous to impose a points system for migration and then be outraged when countries affected suggest that they might do the same in return?
Candidly, I believe that Leavers are being utterly delusional about how the renegotiation would be carried out. They seem to believe that they can get everything they want pain-free without making any concessions on points of concern on the other side and that it will all be tickety boo in a week or two once it's blown over because that would be "better". To me that sounds barking mad.
They have a delusional idea of the esteem the UK is held in by the rest of Europe. It is respected as are many of the countries in the EU but not more than.
I'm starting to get the very uneasy feeling that this referendum is being decided by the old the very old and the Colonel Blimps and few of them will be around to face the lasting consequences.
I suppose most Leavers don't expect the calamities of Brexit to penetrate their nursing homes. I'm all right Jack seems to be the attitude. However, a lot of carers in these places are from Spain or Portugal. They'd better hope such people get past the point-system firewall. Otherwise the fees are going to sky rocket.
It is extraordinary that we're allowing our freedoms to trade to be summarily taken from us by people who are completely unaffected. It's like giving the public a vote on an oil tanker driver's strike at BP.
Well this is the core – and critical – problem with referendums, is it not? Another reason why this blasted Euro poll shouldn't ever have been allowed to happen. People with little information, and no skin in the game, are allowed to decide the futures and livelihoods of those of us who work in a globalised city with European customers, and whose businesses would be sorely, possibly critically, damaged by a result of their self-serving isolationism.
Just been out leafleting with a friend (for the first time ever in my life) in sunny Liverpool. We must have covered over 500 or 600 houses at least. #VoteLeave #Yes2Independence
Good for you. Any change in reaction?
I'm going out again myself tomorrow morning.
Just chatted to the folks manning the Leave stall in Totnes. Reaction a bit mixed, as you'd expect in a town twinned with Narnia, but was told there is an excellent response in Brixham, Paignton, Torquay....
People with little information, and no skin in the game, are allowed to decide the futures and livelihoods of those of us who work in a globalised city with European customers, and whose businesses would be sorely, possibly critically, damaged by a result of their self-serving isolationism.
But just think of all that lovely Sovereignty you get in return...
Most British people thought that it was mostly about trade. Most politicians were either ignorant of the facts or decided not to educate the people.
This is getting a bit like the people who claim that the grandparents who fought in WW2 would have thought this or that. Is there any concrete evidence of what most people thought in 1975? That isn't how remember it (I was 25 at the time).
Personally I was opposed to membership, for early-day Corbyn reasons, but I remember my dad was very much in favour of a politically united Europe and the European Movement, which he belonged to, was getting plenty of coverage for that view. It's quite unfashionable now, but the older generation in those days felt the equation European union=no war was an absolutely deciding factor.
My earliest memories of the EU was as the EEC during Geography and Social Studies lessons back in the 70s. I don't really remember it as being about political union then, to be honest. I was but a lad at the time, and might be misremembering, though!
''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.
''We weren't in at the beginning but once we decided to grace it with our presence we want everything doing our way. I can't think of one other member that behaves the way we do.''
This would be a cracking point if we weren't the second biggest net contributor and a huge employer of European Citizens.
But we are. And he who pays the piper calls the tune, sunshine.
So drop and give us twenty.
Pretty much sums up the arrogance I was commenting on.
I've not had it officially confirmed, but I believe we're going to get weekly ICM phone polls for the rest of the campaign, next week's one might be the most important poll of the campaign.
If Leave still retain a lead, or increase their lead, then we're going to see some real shift over on Betfair, Remain are already down to 71%
If the next poll is a reversion to the status quo ante bellum, then expectations will move back to where it was before the ICM polls came out
Agreed. Do you know when next week's ICM poll will be published?
Well I know the ICM online poll will come out Mon/Tue of next week, I'm hoping we'll get the phone poll at the same time.
The only poll I do know for sure we're getting this weekend is the Opinium online poll for the Observer
Mon/Tue is a little too imprecise. Can you narrow it down?
Most British people thought that it was mostly about trade. Most politicians were either ignorant of the facts or decided not to educate the people.
This is getting a bit like the people who claim that the grandparents who fought in WW2 would have thought this or that. Is there any concrete evidence of what most people thought in 1975? That isn't how remember it (I was 25 at the time).
Personally I was opposed to membership, for early-day Corbyn reasons, but I remember my dad was very much in favour of a politically united Europe and the European Movement, which he belonged to, was getting plenty of coverage for that view. It's quite unfashionable now, but the older generation in those days felt the equation European union=no war was an absolutely deciding factor.
My dad, who was 29 at the time of the referendum said that it was sold as being all about trade. But he didn't believe them so voted Out anyway.
Comments
I'm surprised more Remainers aren't really pissed off with him/the campaign hyperbole. I've barely seen a post critical of their side.
I don't want him anywhere near the negotiating table.
North East poll for The Journal - Panelbase gives Leave a 50-43 lead. This is an online poll and only 500 people so presumably a 4.3% MOE..
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/business/business-news/eu-vote-close-call-north-11420701
It's not to do with government ownership. There is a cost point to fabricating wings so far from the production lines and governments would provide incentives (regional aid, development support and the like) to shift design and production. For what it's worth the Commission tries very hard to restrict these and have businesses make decisions based on economic merits alone.
320neo wings will not move as that would wreck current production, although if there's a ramping of production I've little doubt that the production lines would be ex-UK.
HMG still retains golden shares in BAE and RR although they are of dubious (ie near nil) legal value.
You really are getting your knickers in a twist.
She has shown time and time again she drives a hard bargain, isn't afraid to stand up against vested interests, and she works hard.
Or Gove.
Which other very lucrative industries would you like us to lose??
Going right back to the beginning, the 1951 Treaty of Paris, which established the ECSC, contained within its preamble:
Resolved to substitute for age-old rivalries the merging of their essential interests; to create, by establishing an economic community, the basis for a broader and deeper community among peoples long divided by bloody conflict; and to lay the foundations for institutions which will give direction to a destiny henceforward shared
That, of course was made much more explicit later in the 1950s, with the Treaty of Rome and "ever closer union".
It is a myth that the EU and its predecessors were ever 'just about trade'.
However, as Cameron is now a busted flush Boris might get a run at it regardless of the result of the referendum.
Are you insulting Edinburgh, young Meeks?
Dublin at least has the advantage that it is not full of Scottish Nationalists.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
If wing production moves out of Wales it will be because of political blowback from Brexit.
If Leave still retain a lead, or increase their lead, then we're going to see some real shift over on Betfair, Remain are already down to 71%
If the next poll is a reversion to the status quo ante bellum, then expectations will move back to where it was before the ICM polls came out
Price worth paying for EU single market rules is worth it?
54% No
36% Yes
10% DK
If that's true, or anything close to true, then the average size of a bet on Remain is far larger than the average bet on Leave. As could happen, for example, if there have been a small number of very large bets on Remain. As there might have been, for example, if the Remain campaign keeps track of betting prices on its war desk and maintains a capability for influencing said prices.
The City though, despite its long term deleterious effect on the British economy, has always had the short term effect of producing lots of money for HMG to tax and that has always appealed more to politicians, who never seem to be able to think beyond the next election. Gordon Brown being a classic example.
In an ideal world the City should become a progressively less important part of our economy. Something that Osborne was talking about not so long ago, "march of the makers", "rebalancing the economy" and all that stuff. Unfortunately, like his Boss, he seems to be good at the words, the actions not so much.
This softie Southerner might say it is the nicest place north of York, and before that, Oxford....
Having looked at the odds of a Remain win, and the predictions from academics, journalists & pollsters that Leave has a 33% chance of success, why is there so much excitement that published polls neck and neck or within a 2-3 percentage points of each other?
Asked myself, If EU is the Answer, What's The Question? Then Voted Leave by post this morning. With my heart and my head. Never felt better.
The only poll I do know for sure we're getting this weekend is the Opinium online poll for the Observer
Thanks to the EU this practice was outlawed in 2000. But it's exactly the sort of cost free restriction that can be brought back as soon as we leave. In itself it's small but as restrictions on the service sector are the easiest to apply I'm sure they'll be the first to be implemented and the service sector is huge in overseas earnings
Surely Boris's plan is to become PM after a narrow Remain win - Cameron has to go and he just slides into position (assuming the Tories will still have him) as the leading Outer.
So Boris doesn't actually want Leave to win - and indeed when he joined Leave his initial strategy was to leverage a leave vote to actually stay in the EU on different terms, until the fanatics that he'd just joined bullied him into line.
The question therefore is what Boris will do over the next three weeks to sabotage his own side?
Hard to say, really.
My only concern is: have they got 3 weeks supply of publicity in them?
h ttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll
odysseanproject @odysseanproject
Hearing No10 considering a promise of a special referendum just on Turkey to try to escape disastrous 'pave the road'. Won't work
I've got a discussion of this and other post-Brexit thoughts (which I've tried to make reasonably objective) kindly scheduled by TSE in one of tomorrow's threads.
This gives a clear win for Leave, although it's tight:
12.4m to 13m
Age Remain Leave Population turn-out % turn-out Remain vote Leave vote
18-24 0.63 0.18 8,294,000 0.47 3898180 2,455,853.40 701,672.40
25-49 0.44 0.35 21,896,000 0.5 10948000 4,817,120.00 3,831,800.00
50-64 0.38 0.49 11,516,000 0.66 7600560 2,888,212.80 3,724,274.40
65+ 0.27 0.58 10,376,000 0.8 8300800 2,241,216.00 4,814,464.00
12,402,402.20 13,072,210.80
Sorry its a bit of mess, but haven't time to convert the Excel properly. You get the idea.
Lots of caveats of course, although it could be even worse for Remain as the age demographic for 18-24 actually includes 15-17 year olds as thats the way the demographics are presented.
No doubt someone will point out the huge flaw I've failed to spot, but I think it reinforces the view that UK could be leaving EU because of the votes of older people whilst the young sit on their hands and fiddle with snapchat.
1. The emergency brake.
2. A cut in the EU contributions.
I'm going out again myself tomorrow morning.
1) Northern Ireland
2) Gibralatar
3) Ex pats
None of whom are polled by most EURef polls.
My own back of a fag packet calculation has this worth about 1.2% to 1.5% to Remain
As to Boris he is not ahead in the ConHome member polls and by all accounts he has no large support amongst the MP.
I'm not sure what impact it will have:
Personally I was opposed to membership, for early-day Corbyn reasons, but I remember my dad was very much in favour of a politically united Europe and the European Movement, which he belonged to, was getting plenty of coverage for that view. It's quite unfashionable now, but the older generation in those days felt the equation European union=no war was an absolutely deciding factor.
Recorded at San Jose, CA earlier this morning. Trump starts at 35 minutes into the tape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfGHhPHWVdk
Only reaction was from a guy going in his door as we were posting. He asked what they were for, I said the referendum, he asked In or Out. I said Out. He wanted the leaflets.
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http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1514275935&Country=United Kingdom&topic=Economy&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=Economic+outlook
Leave supporters will no doubt be claiming that the EU funds the magazine in some way or other.
GE May 2015: Lib-Lab-Grn 58 ; Tory/UKIP 42
June 2016: Remain 43 - Leave 50
London (Opinium)
GE May 2015: Lib-Lab-Grn 57 ; Tory/UKIP 43
May 2016: Remain 60 - Leave 40
Wales (Yougov)
GE May 2015: Lib-Lab-Grn 58 ; Tory/UKIP 41
Apr 2016: Remain 53 - Leave 47
Nationally:
GE May 2015: Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP-PC 49 ; Tory/UKIP 51
Apr 2016: Remain ?? - Leave ??
Interesting, but I would have thought the last thing remain would want to do is give the voters a scent of blood in the water .